Using global sensitivity analysis of demographic models for ecological impact assessment
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Matthew E. Aiello‐Lammens↗
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Beyond Ecosystem Modeling: A Roadmap to Community Cyberinfrastructure for Ecological Data-Model Integration
In an era of rapid global change, our ability to understand and predict Earth's natural systems is lagging behind our ability to monitor and measure changes in the biosphere. Bottlenecks to informing models with observations have reduced our capacity to fully exploit the growing volume and variety of available data. Here, we take a critical look at the information infrastructure that connects ecosystem modeling and measurement efforts, and propose a roadmap to community cyberinfrastructure development that can reduce the divisions between empirical research and modeling and accelerate the pace of discovery. A new era of data‐model integration requires investment in accessible, scalable, and transparent tools that integrate the expertise of the whole community, including both modelers and empiricists. This roadmap focuses on five key opportunities for community tools: the underlying foundations of community cyberinfrastructure; data ingest; calibration of models to data; model‐data benchmarking; and data assimilation and ecological forecasting. This community‐driven approach is a key to meeting the pressing needs of science and society in the 21st century.
Istem Fer↗
Monitoring the environment by remote sensing
Structural features of ecosystems, such as leaf area index, phytomass and canopy chemical contents, are beginning to be estimated from remotely sensed data. This development, in combination with ecological modeling, is permitting the estimation of functional features of ecosystems including primary productivity and nutrient cycling. Such techniques are also being applied to the problem of monitoring the effects of air or water pollutants on biota. Sensors that obtain data at a coarse spatial scale (1 km2 or more) are also permitting the observation of biospheric patterns at a large regional or global scale for the first time. When coupled with atmospheric measurements, field data and simulation models, such data may serve to address ecological processes, including pollution effects, at large regional or global scales.
Westman, Walter E.↗
Evaluating impacts of snow, surface water, soil and vegetation on empirical vegetation and snow indices for the Utqiaġvik tundra ecosystem in Alaska with the LVS3 model
Satellite observations for the Arctic and boreal region may contain information of vegetation, soil, snow, snowmelt, and/or other surface water bodies. We investigated the impacts of vegetation, soil, snow and surface water on empirical vegetation/snow indices on a tundra ecosystem area located around Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow) of Alaska with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) images in 2001–2014. Empirical vegetation indices, such as normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), enhanced vegetation index (EVI), the index of near infrared of vegetation (NIRv), and modified EVI (EVI2), have been used to monitor vegetation. Normalized difference snow index (NDSI) has been widely applied to monitor snow. The vegetation cover fraction (VGCF), the soil cover fraction (SOILCF), the snow cover fraction (SNOWCF), the surface water body cover fraction (WaterBodyCF), the fractional absorption of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) by vegetation chlorophyll (fAPARchl), the fractional absorption of PAR by non-chlorophyll components of the vegetation (fAPARnon-chl), and the fractional absorption of PAR by the entire canopy (fAPARcanopy) are retrieved with the MODIS images and a coupled Leaf-Vegetation-Soil-Snow-Surface water body radiative transfer model, LVS3. The vegetation indices (NDVI, EVI, EVI2 and NIRv) differ from VGCF, fAPARchl, fAPARnon-chl, and fAPARcanopy. In addition to vegetation, we find that soil, snow and surface water also have impacts on vegetation indices NDVI, EVI (EVI2), and NIRv. Presence of snow makes lower the observed values of NDVI, EVI2 and NIRv. After snowmelt is gone, the vegetation indices (NDVI, EVI, EVI2 and NIRv) linearly decrease with SOILCF and WaterBodyCF, and WaterBodyCF has stronger impacts on these vegetation indices than SOILCF. The relationship between EVI and snow is complicated. NDSI non-linearly increases with SNOWCF, but linearly increases with sum of SNOWCF and WaterBodyCF (sum = 0.5893 × NDSI +0.4342, R2 = 0.976). NDSI linearly decreases with VGCF, and the relationship between NDSI and SOILCF is complex. Retrievals of VGCF, fAPARchl, fAPARnon-chl and fAPARcanopy with the LVS3 model provide alternatives for vegetation monitoring and ecological modeling.
Qingyuan Zhang↗
Water-management models in Florida from ERTS-1 data
A prototype multiparameter data acquisition network, installed and operated by the U.S. Geological Survey is a viable approach for obtaining near real-time data needed to solve hydrologic problems confronting nearly 2.5 million residents of south Florida. Selected water quantity and quality data obtained from ground stations are transmitted for relay via ERTS-1 to NASA receiving stations in virtual real time. This data relay system has been very reliable and, by coupling the ground information with ERTS imagery, a modeling technique is available for water resource management in south Florida. An ecological model has been designed for the Shark River Slough in Everglades National Park.
Higer, A. L.↗
Nutritional models for a Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS): Linear mathematical modeling
The NASA Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS) Program is involved in developing a biogenerative life support system that will supply food, air, and water to space crews on long-duration missions. An important part of this effort is in development of the knowledge and technological capability of producing and processing foods to provide optimal diets for space crews. This involves such interrelated factors as determination of the diet, based on knowledge of nutrient needs of humans and adjustments in those needs that may be required as a result of the conditions of long-duration space flight; determination of the optimal mixture of crops required to provide nutrients at levels that are sufficient but not excessive or toxic; and consideration of the critical issues of spacecraft space and power limitations, which impose a phytomass minimization requirement. The complex interactions among these factors are examined with the goal of supplying a diet that will satisfy human needs while minimizing the total phytomass requirement. The approach taken was to collect plant nutritional composition and phytomass production data, identify human nutritional needs and estimate the adjustments to the nutrient requirements likely to result from space flight, and then to generate mathematical models from these data.
Wade, Rose C.↗
Using Coupled Models to Study the Effects of River Discharge on Biogeochemical Cycling and Hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico
We describe emerging capabilities to understand physical processes and biogeoehemical cycles in coastal waters through the use of satellites, numerical models, and ship observations. Emerging capabilities provide significantly improved ability to model ecological systems and the impact of environmental management actions on them. The complex interaction of physical and biogeoehemical processes responsible for hypoxic events requires an integrated approach to research, monitoring, and modeling in order to fully define the processes leading to hypoxia. Our efforts characterizes the carbon cycle associated with river plumes and the export of organic matter and nutrients form coastal Louisiana wetlands and embayments in a spatially and temporally intensive manner previously not possible. Riverine nutrients clearly affect ecosystems in the northern Gulf of Mexico as evidenced in the occurrence of regional hypoxia events. Less known and largely unqualified is the export of organic matter and nutrients from the large areas of disappearing coastal wetlands and large embayments adjacent to the Louisiana Continental Shelf. This project provides new methods to track the river plume along the shelf and to estimate the rate of export of suspended inorganic and organic paniculate matter and dissolved organic matter form coastal habitats of south Louisiana.
COUPLED MODEL↗
Water-management models in Florida from LANDSAT-1 data
ERTS-1 is described as a near real time, data relay system for south Florida water quantity and quality monitoring. An ecological model of the Shark River Slough in Everglades National Park is also presented.
Higer, A. L.↗
Biophysical and spectral modeling
Activities and results of a project to develop strategies for modeling vegetative canopy reflectance are reported. Specific tasks included the inversion of canopy reflectance models to estimate agronomic variables (particularly leaf area index) from in-situ reflectance measurements, and a study of possible uses of ecological models in analyzing temporal profiles of greenness.
Goel, N. S.↗
Effective Interpolation of Incomplete Satellite-Derived Leaf-Area Index Time Series for the Continental United States
Many earth science modeling applications employ continuous input data fields derived from satellite data. Environmental factors, sensor limitations and algorithmic constraints lead to data products of inherently variable quality. This necessitates interpolation of one form or another in order to produce high quality input fields free of missing data. The present research tests several interpolation techniques as applied to satellite-derived leaf area index, an important quantity in many global climate and ecological models. The study evaluates and applies a variety of interpolation techniques for the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Leaf-Area Index Product over the time period 2001-2006 for a region containing the conterminous United States. Results indicate that the accuracy of an individual interpolation technique depends upon the underlying land cover. Spatial interpolation provides better results in forested areas, while temporal interpolation performs more effectively over non-forest cover types. Combination of spatial and temporal approaches offers superior interpolative capabilities to any single method, and in fact, generation of continuous data fields requires a hybrid approach such as this.
Jasinski, Michael F.↗
Insights into the year-round vertical distribution of chlorophyll concentration in high-latitude Arctic Ocean: implications for primary production
Climate-induced rapid changes in the Arctic Ocean, such as decreasing sea ice extent and increasing water temperature, are altering nutrient and light availability, profoundly impacting primary producer growth. However, access to the high-latitude Arctic Ocean is limited, and satellite data are primarily available only during summer, making continuous in-situ data collection challenging. We collected year-round chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration data in high-latitude regions using a mooring system and performed a comparative analysis with reanalysis data. Unlike previous satellite-based studies, which typically rely on surface measurements, we used the annual vertical distribution of Chl-a. These data were applied to the vertically generalized production model to accurately estimate annual primary production. The moored Chl-a concentration data showed that phytoplankton exhibited a typical subsurface chlorophyll maximum (SCM) layer as sea ice retreated in June. Contrary to the gradually deepening SCM distribution predicted by model-based reanalysis data, the SCM layer persisted for approximately 4 months. This indicates that light and nutrient conditions within the SCM layer remained stable, sustaining continuous phytoplankton growth. Annual primary production, reflecting this vertical distribution of Chl-a concentration, was 6.85 gC m −2 yr −1 . This exceeded satellite-based estimates by at least two-fold, highlighting the significant underestimation of primary production by satellite approaches. Estimating primary production while accounting for the vertical distribution of phytoplankton and light is essential for improving ecological models to better understand carbon cycle and food web changes in the Arctic Ocean, with important implications for climate change predictions.
Arctic Ocean↗
Measurement of tree canopy architecture
The lack of accurate extensive geometric data on tree canopies has retarded development and validation of radiative transfer models. A stratified sampling method was devised to measure the three-dimensional geometry of 16 walnut trees which had received irrigation treatments of either 100 or 33 per cent of evapotranspirational (ET) demand for the previous two years. Graphic reconstructions of the three-dimensional geometry were verified by 58 independent measurements. The distributions of stem- and leaf-size classes, lengths, and angle classes were determined and used to calculate leaf area index (LAI), stem area, and biomass. Reduced irrigation trees have lower biomass of stems, leaves and fruit, lower LAI, steeper leaf angles and altered biomass allocation to large stems. These data can be used in ecological models that link canopy processes with remotely sensed measurements.
Martens, S. N.↗
Metabolic complexity drives divergence in microbial communities
Microbial communities are shaped by environmental metabolites, but the principles that govern whether different communities will converge or diverge in any given condition remain unknown, posing fundamental questions about the feasibility of microbiome engineering. Here, in this work, we studied the longitudinal assembly dynamics of a set of natural microbial communities grown in laboratory conditions of increasing metabolic complexity. We found that different microbial communities tend to become similar to each other when grown in metabolically simple conditions, but they diverge in composition as the metabolic complexity of the environment increases, a phenomenon we refer to as the divergence-complexity effect. A comparative analysis of these communities revealed that this divergence is driven by community diversity and by the assortment of specialist taxa capable of degrading complex metabolites. An ecological model of community dynamics indicates that the hierarchical structure of metabolism itself, where complex molecules are enzymatically degraded into progressively simpler ones that then participate in cross-feeding between community members, is necessary and sufficient to recapitulate our experimental observations. In addition to helping understand the role of the environment in community assembly, the divergence-complexity effect can provide insight into which environments support multiple community states, enabling the search for desired ecosystem functions towards microbiome engineering applications.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Stock-specific spatial overlap among seabird predators and Columbia River juvenile Chinook Salmon suggests a mechanism for predation during early marine residence
Abstract Objective Because predation is thought to be the primary source of natural mortality for juvenile salmon first entering the ocean, we sought to identify regions where, on average, stock-specific spatial overlap between the distribution of threatened and endangered juvenile Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha and abundant fish-eating seabirds (common murres Uria aalge and sooty shearwaters Ardenna grisea) suggests the greatest potential for ocean predation risk to juvenile Chinook Salmon. Methods The relative abundance and spatial distribution of seabird predators and juvenile Chinook Salmon were quantified as part of long-term ecosystem surveys during May 2003–2012 and June 2003–2022. Genetic stock identification methods were used to assign individual fish to their respective stock groups. Stock-specific species distribution models then generated maps and indices of average annual spatial overlap between predators and prey within the survey area. Result There is unequivocal evidence for spatial overlap between common murres, sooty shearwaters, and five genetic groups of interior and lower Columbia River juvenile Chinook Salmon. We found strongly positive (≥0.70) spatial correlations between predator and prey densities in both May and June, although spatial overlap was, in general, greater during May. The region of highest spatial overlap occurred on the inner continental shelf between the Columbia River mouth (46.2°N) and Grays Harbor (47.0°N), a region at the beginning of the juvenile salmon migratory pathway that is strongly affected by freshwater outflow from the river. Conclusion Our findings support the idea that ocean avian predation during early marine residence has the potential to affect marine survival of juvenile Chinook Salmon and should be further investigated to better inform and implement ecological models and possible recovery actions for Chinook Salmon populations of the Columbia River basin.
Zamon, Jeannette E.↗
Theories of Simplification and Scaling of Spatially Distributed Processes
The problem of scaling is at the heart of ecological theory, the essence of understanding and of the development of a predictive capability. The description of any system depends on the spatial, temporal, and organizational perspective chosen; hence it is essential to understand not only how patterns and dynamics vary with scale, but also how patterns at one scale are manifestations of processes operating at other scales. Evolution has shaped the characteristics of species in ways that result in scale displacement: Each species experiences the environment at its own unique set of spatial and temporal scales and interfaces the biota through unique assemblages of phenotypes. In this way, coexistence becomes possible, and biodiversity is enhanced. By averaging over space, time, and biological interactions, a genotype filters variation at fine scales and selects the arena in which it will face the vicissitudes of nature. Variation at finer scales is then noise, of minor importance to the survival and dynamics of the species, and consequently of minor importance in any attempt at description. In attempting to model ecological interactions in space, contributors throughout this book have struggled with a trade-off between simplification and "realistic" complexity and detail. Although the challenge of simplification is widely recognized in ecology, less appreciated is the intertwining of scaling questions and scaling laws with the process of simplification. In the context of this chapter simplification will in general mean the use of spatial or ensemble means and low-order moments to capture more detailed interactions by integrating over given areas. In this way, one can derive descriptions of the system at different spatial scales, which provides the essentials for the extraction of scaling laws by examination of how system properties vary with scale.
Levin, Simon A.↗
Earthworms significantly enhance the temperature sensitivity of soil organic matter decomposition: Insights into future soil carbon budgeting
How and what soil fauna influence the soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition rate (Rs) and its temperature sensitivity (Q 10 ) have been largely ignored, although this is a crucial matter, especially under the scenario of global change. Further, in this study, a novel approach was adopted with a continuous changing-temperature incubation (daytime, from 7 °C to 22 °C; nighttime, from 22 °C to 7 °C) with rapid and continuous measurement, to examine the effect of soil macrofauna (specifically, earthworms) on Rs and Q 10 with three densities (no addition, low density, and high density). According to the results, the earthworms accelerated Rs. Furthermore, Rs with earthworm addition had a symmetrical pattern during daytime and nighttime cycles, which is contrary to traditional soil incubation, with only soil microbe as asymmetrical. More importantly, earthworm addition increased Q 10 markedly, ranging from 48% to 67%. Overall, the findings highlight the pivotal role of earthworms as soil macrofauna that regulating soil carbon release, and their effects should be integrated into process-based ecological models in future.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Hydrological Control on Soil Redox Condition and Carbon Loss of Coastal Wetland Under Sea-Level Rise
Coastal wetlands are critical carbon sinks with their biogeochemical and ecological functioning shaped by dynamic hydrological conditions that are increasingly influenced by climate change. A key unresolved question is how hydrologic flow, vegetation response, and rising sea levels interact to regulate soil redox condition and carbon loss in coastal wetlands. Using a field-tested hydrological–biogeochemical–ecological modeling framework, we reveal how the interplay between terrestrial groundwater discharge and tidal fluctuations generates complex groundwater flow patterns at the terrestrial–aquatic interface, and how these patterns modulate soil redox conditions, in turn influencing soil organic matter decomposition and carbon loss. Notably, rising sea levels suppress soil CO2 emissions while reducing lateral dissolved carbon losses, thereby enhancing litter carbon sequestration under anoxic conditions. As vegetation responds to sea-level rise and carbon inputs diminish, litter carbon subsequently declines. These findings underscore a critical hydrological control on carbon cycling, advancing our understanding of coastal ecosystem resilience in a warming world.
Chen, Kewei [ORNL] (ORCID:000000032580514X)↗
Global net climate effects of anthropogenic reactive nitrogen
Anthropogenic activities have substantially enhanced the loadings of reactive nitrogen (Nr) in the Earth system since pre-industrial times, contributing to widespread eutrophication and air pollution. Increased Nr can also influence global climate through a variety of effects on atmospheric and land processes but the cumulative net climate effect is yet to be unravelled. Here we show that anthropogenic Nr causes a net negative direct radiative forcing of –0.34 [–0.20, –0.50] W m –2 in the year 2019 relative to the year 1850. This net cooling effect is the result of increased aerosol loading, reduced methane lifetime and increased terrestrial carbon sequestration associated with increases in anthropogenic Nr, which are not offset by the warming effects of enhanced atmospheric nitrous oxide and ozone. Future predictions using three representative scenarios show that this cooling effect may be weakened primarily as a result of reduced aerosol loading and increased lifetime of methane, whereas in particular N 2 O-induced warming will probably continue to increase under all scenarios. Our results indicate that future reductions in anthropogenic Nr to achieve environmental protection goals need to be accompanied by enhanced efforts to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions to achieve climate change mitigation in line with the Paris Agreement.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗