Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Exponential weighting”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

Soda Pop: A Time-Series Clustering, Alarming and Disease Forecasting Application

To introduce Soda Pop, an R/Shiny application designed to be a disease agnostic time-series clustering, alarming, and forecasting tool to assist in disease surveillance “triage, analysis and reporting” workflows within the Biosurveillance Ecosystem (BSVE). In this poster, we highlight the new capabilities that are brought to the BSVE by Soda Pop with an emphasis on the impact of methodological decisions. The Biosurveillance Ecosystem (BSVE) is a biological and chemical threat surveillance system sponsored by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA). BSVE is intended to be user-friendly, multi-agency, cooperative, modular and threat agnostic platform for biosurveillance. In BSVE, a web-based workbench presents the analyst with applications (apps) developed by various DTRA funded researchers, which are deployed on-demand in the cloud(e.g., Amazon Web Services). These apps aim to address emerging needs and refine capabilities to enable early warning of chemical and biological threats for multiple users across local, state, and federal agencies. Soda Pop is an app developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to meet the current needs of the BSVE for early warning and detection of disease outbreaks. Aimed for use bya diverse set of analysts, the application is agnostic to data source and spatial scale enabling it to be generalizable across many diseases and locations. To achieve this, we placed a particular emphasis on clustering and alerting of disease signals within Soda Pop without strong prior assumptions on the nature of observed diseased counts. Although designed to be agnostic to the data source, Soda Pop was initially developed and tested on data summarizing Influenza-Like Illness in military hospitals from collaboration with the Armed Forces Health Surveillance Branch. Currently, the data incorporated also includes the CDC’s National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System(NNDSS) tables and the WHO’s Influenza A/B Influenza Data(Flunet). These data sources are now present in BSVE’s Postgres data storage for direct access. Soda Pop is designed to automate time-series tasks of data summarization, exploration, clustering, alarming and forecasting. Built as an R/Shiny application, Soda Pop is founded on the powerful statistical tool R.. Where applicable, Soda Pop facilitates nonparametric seasonal decomposition of time-series; hierarchical agglomerative clustering across reporting areas and between diseases within reporting areas; and a variety of alarming techniques including Exponential Weighted Moving Average alarms and Early Aberration Detection. Soda Pop embeds these techniques within a user-interface designed to enhance an analyst’s understanding of emerging trends in their data and enables the inclusion of its graphical elements into their dossier for further tracking and reporting. The ultimate goal of this software is to facilitate the discovery of unknown disease signals along with increasing the speed of detection of unusual patterns within these signals. Soda Pop organizes common statistical disease surveillance tasks in a manner integrated with BSVE data source inputs and outputs. The app analyzes time-series disease data and supports a robust set of clustering and alarming routines that avoid strong assumptions on the nature of observed disease counts. This attribute allows for flexibility in the data source, spatial scale, and disease types making it useful to a wide range of analysts.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1970

Analysis of a Decision-Directed Receiver with Unknown Priors

A decision-directed receiver (DDR) uses previous outputs (decisions) to estimate unknown parameters and, on the basis of these estimates, modifies the detector structure for subsequent decisions. Although the DDR is less complex to instrument than other adaptive schemes, inherent in the decision-directed approach is the possibility of a runaway. This occurs when the detector commits a sequence of decision errors resulting in a degradation of parameter estimates, which, in turn, results in a further deterioration of detector performance. Because of the dependencies introduced by the learning process, runaway is difficult to analyze. In this paper, a DDR with unknown a priori probabilities is considered. The priors are estimated by the relative frequency of decisions of that event. For binary detection, it is shown that there is a positive probability of a runaway (the estimates converge to 1 or 0), which equals 1 if the signal-to-noise ratio is below a critical value. A tight bound on the probability of a runaway is obtained by approximating the learning process by a random walk with independent increments. The analysis demonstrates that a runaway is quite improbable even for moderate signal-to-noise ratios. The analysis is extended to multiple signals and to the situation where the estimates of the priors are updated continuously through exponential weighting rather than allowed to converge.

Davisson, Lee D.↗
NASA NTRS1956

An Oil-Stream Photomicrographic Aeroscope for Obtaining Cloud Liquid-Water Content and Droplet Size Distributions in Flight

An airborne cloud aeroscope by which droplet size, size distribution, and liquid-water content of clouds can be determined has been developed and tested in flight and in wind tunnels with water sprays. In this aeroscope the cloud droplets are continuously captured in a stream of oil, which Is then photographed by a photomicrographic camera. The droplet size and size distribution can be determined directly from the photographs. With the droplet size distribution known, the liquid-water content of the cloud can be computed from the geometry of the aeroscope, the airspeed, and the oil-flow rate. The aeroscope has the following features: Data are obtained semi-automatically, and permanent data are taken in the form of photographs. A single picture usually contains a sufficient number of droplets to establish the droplet size distribution. Cloud droplets are continuously captured in the stream of oil, but pictures are taken at Intervals. The aeroscope can be operated in icing and non-icing conditions. Because of mixing of oil in the instrument, the droplet-distribution patterns and liquid-water content values from a single picture are exponentially weighted average values over a path length of about 3/4 mile at 150 miles per hour. The liquid-water contents, volume-median diameters, and distribution patterns obtained on test flights and in the Lewis icing tunnel are similar to previously published data.

Hacker, Paul T.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Robustness of extended-Kalman-type observers

Robustness properties of extended-Kalman-type observers are investigated for linear plants when actuators and sensors have non-linearities or linear dynamics. Sufficient conditions for the stability of the estimation error are obtained for time-varying extended Kalman filters (EKF) for time-varying plants, and for constant-gain, exponentially weighted EKF for time-invariant plants. When the non-linearities are known only within bands of uncertainty, it is proved that the observer is non-divergent.

Joshi, S. M.↗
NASA NTRS1991

A class of least-squares filtering and identification algorithms with systolic array architectures

A unified approach is presented for deriving a large class of new and previously known time- and order-recursive least-squares algorithms with systolic array architectures, suitable for high-throughput-rate and VLSI implementations of space-time filtering and system identification problems. The geometrical derivation given is unique in that no assumption is made concerning the rank of the sample data correlation matrix. This method utilizes and extends the concept of oblique projections, as used previously in the derivations of the least-squares lattice algorithms. Exponentially weighted least-squares criteria are considered for both sliding and growing memory.

Kalson, Seth Z.↗
NASA NTRS1999

On Estimating End-to-End Network Path Properties

The more information about current network conditions available to a transport protocol, the more efficiently it can use the network to transfer its data. In networks such as the Internet, the transport protocol must often form its own estimates of network properties based on measurements per-formed by the connection endpoints. We consider two basic transport estimation problems: determining the setting of the retransmission timer (RTO) for are reliable protocol, and estimating the bandwidth available to a connection as it begins. We look at both of these problems in the context of TCP, using a large TCP measurement set [Pax97b] for trace-driven simulations. For RTO estimation, we evaluate a number of different algorithms, finding that the performance of the estimators is dominated by their minimum values, and to a lesser extent, the timer granularity, while being virtually unaffected by how often round-trip time measurements are made or the settings of the parameters in the exponentially-weighted moving average estimators commonly used. For bandwidth estimation, we explore techniques previously sketched in the literature [Hoe96, AD98] and find that in practice they perform less well than anticipated. We then develop a receiver-side algorithm that performs significantly better.

Allman, Mark↗
NASA NTRS2012

Use of Statistical Analysis of Acoustic Emission Data on Carbon-Epoxy COPV Materials-of-Construction for Enhanced Felicity Ratio Onset Determination

Broadband modal acoustic emission (AE) data were acquired during intermittent load hold tensile test profiles on Toray T1000G carbon fiber-reinforced epoxy (C/Ep) single tow specimens. A novel trend seeking statistical method to determine the onset of significant AE was developed, resulting in more linear decreases in the Felicity ratio (FR) with load, potentially leading to more accurate failure prediction. The method developed uses an exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control chart. Comparison of the EWMA with previously used FR onset methods, namely the discrete (n), mean (n (raised bar)), normalized (n%) and normalized mean (n(raised bar)%) methods, revealed the EWMA method yields more consistently linear FR versus load relationships between specimens. Other findings include a correlation between AE data richness and FR linearity based on the FR methods discussed in this paper, and evidence of premature failure at lower than expected loads. Application of the EWMA method should be extended to other composite materials and, eventually, composite components such as composite overwrapped pressure vessels. Furthermore, future experiments should attempt to uncover the factors responsible for infant mortality in C/Ep strands.

Abraham, Arick Reed A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Resolution Enhancement of MODIS-Derived Water Indices for Studying Persistent Flooding

Monitoring coastal marshes for persistent flooding and salinity stress is a high priority issue in Louisiana. Remote sensing can identify environmental variables that can be indicators of marsh habitat conditions, and offer timely and relatively accurate information for aiding wetland vegetation management. Monitoring activity accuracy is often limited by mixed pixels which occur when areas represented by the pixel encompasses more than one cover type. Mixtures of marsh grasses and open water in 250m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data can impede flood area estimation. Flood mapping of such mixtures requires finer spatial resolution data to better represent the cover type composition within 250m MODIS pixel. Fusion of MODIS and Landsat can improve both spectral and temporal resolution of time series products to resolve rapid changes from forcing mechanisms like hurricane winds and storm surge. For this study, using a method for estimating sub-pixel values from a MODIS time series of a Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), using temporal weighting, was implemented to map persistent flooding in Louisiana coastal marshes. Ordinarily NDWI computed from daily 250m MODIS pixels represents a mixture of fragmented marshes and water. Here, sub-pixel NDWI values were derived for MODIS data using Landsat 30-m data. Each MODIS pixel was disaggregated into a mixture of the eight cover types according to the classified image pixels falling inside the MODIS pixel. The Landsat pixel means for each cover type inside a MODIS pixel were computed for the Landsat data preceding the MODIS image in time and for the Landsat data succeeding the MODIS image. The Landsat data were then weighted exponentially according to closeness in date to the MODIS data. The reconstructed MODIS data were produced by summing the product of fractional cover type with estimated NDWI values within each cover type. A new daily time series was produced using both the reconstructed 250-m MODIS, with enhanced features, and the approximated daily 30-m high-resolution image based on Landsat data. The algorithm was developed and tested over the Calcasieu-Sabine Basin, which was heavily inundated by storm surge from Hurricane Ike to study the extent and duration of flooding following the storm. Time series for 2000-2009, covering flooding events by Hurricane Rita in 2005 and Hurricane Ike in 2008, were derived. High resolution images were formed for all days in 2008 between the first cloud free Landsat scene and the last cloud-free Landsat scene. To refine and validate flooding maps, each time series was compared to Louisiana Coastwide Reference Monitoring System (CRMS) station water levels adjusted to marsh to optimize thresholds for MODIS-derived time series of NDWI. Seasonal fluctuations were adjusted by subtracting ten year average NDWI for marshes, excluding the hurricane events. Results from different NDWI indices and a combination of indices were compared. Flooding persistence that was mapped with higher-resolution data showed some improvement over the original MODIS time series estimates. The advantage of this novel technique is that improved mapping of extent and duration of inundation can be provided.

Underwood, L. W.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Integration of Total-Sky Imager Data with a Physics-Based Smart Persistence Model for Intra-Hour Forecasting of Solar Radiation

Short-term solar forecasting models based solely on global horizontal irradiance (GHI) measurements are often unable to discriminate the forecasting of the factors affecting GHI from those that can be precisely computed by atmospheric models. Our previous study introduced a Physics-based Smart Persistence model for Intra-hour forecasting of solar radiation (PSPI) that decomposed the forecasting of GHI into the computation of extraterrestrial solar radiation and solar zenith angle and the forecasting of cloud albedo and cloud fraction. The extraterrestrial solar radiation and solar zenith angle were accurately computed by the Solar Position Algorithm (SPA) developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). A cloud retrieval technique was used to estimate cloud albedo and cloud fraction from surface-based observations of GHI. With the assumption of persistent cloud structures, the cloud albedo and cloud fraction were predicted for future time steps using a two-stream approximation and a 5-minute exponential weighted moving average, respectively. The model evaluation indicated the estimation and forecast of cloud fraction mostly contributed to the uncertainty of the PSPI though it overcame the persistence and smart persistence models in all forecast time horizons between 5 and 60 minutes. This study aims to enhance the PSPI by ingesting surface-based observations of cloud fraction from a total sky imager (TSI). The estimation and forecast of cloud albedo is correspondingly improved by utilizing the cloud fraction observations and thus leads to more accurate GHI forecast. Various time-series analysis methods are also investigated on the forecasting of cloud fraction and cloud albedo for further improving the GHI forecast. These improvements are valuable for many applications, such as forecasting energy use for buildings, grid operations, and ultimately bringing down the cost of solar energy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Universal Optimization and Tighter Fidelity Bounds for Approximate Quantum Error Correction

Approximate quantum error correction (AQEC) not only dictates the performance of discrete- and continuous-variable quantum error correction codes but also serves as a unifying framework across various physical disciplines. Identifying the optimal recovery channel to maximize the entanglement fidelity via standard semidefinite programming is computationally bottlenecked by the exponentially growing number of Kraus operators with system size, rendering large-scale optimization prohibitive. While analytical near-optimal maps exist, they typically work only when the Knill-Laflamme conditions are nearly satisfied. In this Letter, we establish an efficient framework by leveraging the duality between recovery and environment decoupling. This framework yields a tighter analytical lower bound on entanglement fidelity than the conventional limit set by the transpose channel. Furthermore, by exploiting the decayed weights of noise Kraus operators, we introduce a framework based on principal component analysis to reduce the dimension. In thermal loss channels where the weights decay exponentially, our approach achieves a 33-fold computational speedup while maintaining rigorous accuracy. Our approach enables high-precision optimization for AQEC codes that were previously intractable due to the curse of dimensionality.

Wu, Jing [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000249460732)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Investigation of the structure, filler interaction and degradation of disulfide elastomers made by Reversible Radical Recombination Polymerization (R3P)

In this paper we report the synthesis and analysis of cyclic polydisulfides, their redox depolymerization as well as their interaction with carbon black. Cyclic poly(3,6-dioxa-1,8-octanedithiol)s (pDODT) were synthesized by Reversible Radical Recombination Polymerization (R3P). R3P is a scalable “green” polymerization process using triethylamine (TEA), H 2 O 2 and air for the polymerization of dithiol monomers. pDODTs were synthesized in 5 and 20 g batches. The effect of peroxide concentration (3, 5, 10, 20, 30%) was investigated. It was found that the molecular weights increased exponentially with increasing peroxide concentrations. At 30% peroxide concentration pDODTs with M n up to 400,000 g/mol and polydispersity of 2 were obtained. 700 and 800 MHz NMR were used for investigating the chemical structure of the polymers. The absence of thiol end group signals in polymers made with > 10wt % H 2 O 2 and M n < 100,000 g/mol, including a sample of a fractionated polymer with starting Mn = 600,000 g/mol, verified cyclic structures. Dithiothreitol reduced the polymers to monomer and a small percentage of oligomers. Carbon black was shown to increase the moduli of high molecular weight pDODTs. Swelling tests in chloroform showed that polymers made with 20 and 30w% peroxide swelled 14 and 10 times of their starting weight without dissolving, indicating chemical interaction between the polymers and carbon black. In conclusion, further analysis of these interesting elastomers, available at the 20 g scale, is in progress.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1986

A recursive solution for a fading memory filter derived from Kalman filter theory

A simple recursive solution for a class of fading memory tracking filters is presented. A fading memory filter provides estimates of filter states based on past measurements, similar to a traditional Kalman filter. Unlike a Kalman filter, an exponentially decaying weight is applied to older measurements, discounting their effect on present state estimates. It is shown that Kalman filters and fading memory filters are closely related solutions to a general least squares estimator problem. Closed form filter transfer functions are derived for a time invariant, steady state, fading memory filter. These can be applied in loop filter implementation of the Deep Space Network (DSN) Advanced Receiver carrier phase locked loop (PLL).

Statman, J. I.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Simplified solution for a class of fading memory filters

A fading memory filter is a least squares estimator (LSE) that applies an exponentially decaying weight to past measurements. When compared with a standard Kalman filter, its key advantages are asymptotic stability and reduced sensitivity to modeling errors. This paper derives a simple solution for a class of fading memory filters, resulting in a reduction in computational complexity. Steady state filter solutions are obtained for second- and third-order filters used in a global positioning system (GPS) receiver for high dynamic vehicles.

Statman, Joseph I.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Thermodynamics and kinetics of the sulfation of porous calcium silicate

The sulfation of plasma sprayed calcium silicate in flowing SO2/air mixtures at 900 and 1000 C was investigated thermogravimetrically. Reaction products were analyzed using electron microprobe and X-ray diffraction analysis techniques, and results were compared with thermodynamic predictions. The percentage, by volume, of SO2 in air was varied between 0.036 and 10 percent. At 10 percent SO2 the weight gain curve displays a concave downward shoulder early in the sulfation process. An analytical model was developed which treats the initial process as one which decays exponentially with increasing time and the subsequent process as one which decays exponentially with increasing weight gain. At lower SO2 levels the initial rate is controlled by the reactant flow rate. At 1100 C and 0.036 percent SO2 there is no reaction, in agreement with thermodynamic predictions.

Miller, R. A.↗
NASA NTRS1986

The isotopes of hydrogen and helium in the Galactic cosmic radiation - Their source abundances and interstellar propagation

A self-consistent model describing the interstellar propagation of Galactic cosmic radiation is developed using low-energy measurements and calculations of the effects of interstellar propagation and solar modulation. The source ratio H-1/He-4 at constant energy per nucleon is determined to be 12.2 + or - 1.5, and the mean path length for an exponential path length weighting function required to account for the data is 7.2 + or - 1.0 g/sq cm. The measured H-2/He-4 and He-3/He-4 ratios do not vary by more than about 30 percent over the solar cycle. The behavior of the ratios during the solar cycle reflects the energy dependence of the local interstellar ratios, and leads to an energy dependence of the mean path length below 1 GeV per nucleon weaker than that inferred from boron/carbon. The source ratio H-1/He-4 inferred from the low-energy data is consistent both with the value inferred from high-energy cosmic ray data using a model of rigidity-dependent confinement and with the solar system abundance ratio.

Beatty, James J.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quasi-Lindblad pseudomode theory for open quantum systems

Here, we introduce a new framework to study the dynamics of open quantum systems with linearly coupled Gaussian baths. Our approach replaces the continuous bath with an auxiliary discrete set of pseudomodes with dissipative dynamics, but we further relax the complete positivity requirement in the Lindblad master equation and formulate a quasi-Lindblad pseudomode theory. We show that this quasi-Lindblad pseudomode formulation directly leads to a representation of the bath correlation function in terms of a complex weighted sum of complex exponentials, an expansion that is known to be rapidly convergent in practice and thus leads to a compact set of pseudomodes. The pseudomode representation is not unique and can differ by a gauge choice. When the global dynamics can be simulated exactly, the system dynamics is unique and independent of the specific pseudomode representation. However, the gauge choice may affect the stability of the global dynamics, and we provide an analysis of why and when the global dynamics can retain stability despite losing positivity. We showcase the performance of this formulation across various spectral densities in both bosonic and fermionic problems, finding significant improvements over conventional pseudomode formulations.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗