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Minnesota peat viromes reveal terrestrial and aquatic niche partitioning for local and global viral populations

Abstract Background Peatlands are expected to experience sustained yet fluctuating higher temperatures due to climate change, leading to increased microbial activity and greenhouse gas emissions. Despite mounting evidence for viral contributions to these processes in peatlands underlain with permafrost, little is known about viruses in other peatlands. More generally, soil viral biogeography and its potential drivers are poorly understood at both local and global scales. Here, 87 metagenomes and five viral size-fraction metagenomes (viromes) from a boreal peatland in northern Minnesota (the SPRUCE whole-ecosystem warming experiment and surrounding bog) were analyzed for dsDNA viral community ecological patterns, and the recovered viral populations (vOTUs) were compared with our curated PIGEON database of 266,125 vOTUs from diverse ecosystems. Results Within the SPRUCE experiment, viral community composition was significantly correlated with peat depth, water content, and carbon chemistry, including CH 4 and CO 2 concentrations, but not with temperature during the first 2 years of warming treatments. Peat vOTUs with aquatic-like signatures (shared predicted protein content with marine and/or freshwater vOTUs) were significantly enriched in more waterlogged surface peat depths. Predicted host ranges for SPRUCE vOTUs were relatively narrow, generally within a single bacterial genus. Of the 4326 SPRUCE vOTUs, 164 were previously detected in other soils, mostly peatlands. None of the previously identified 202,371 marine and freshwater vOTUs in our PIGEON database were detected in SPRUCE peat, but 0.4% of 80,714 viral clusters (VCs, grouped by predicted protein content) were shared between soil and aquatic environments. On a per-sample basis, vOTU recovery was 32 times higher from viromes compared with total metagenomes. Conclusions Results suggest strong viral “species” boundaries between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and to some extent between peat and other soils, with differences less pronounced at higher taxonomic levels. The significant enrichment of aquatic-like vOTUs in more waterlogged peat suggests that viruses may also exhibit niche partitioning on more local scales. These patterns are presumably driven in part by host ecology, consistent with the predicted narrow host ranges. Although more samples and increased sequencing depth improved vOTU recovery from total metagenomes, the substantially higher per-sample vOTU recovery after viral particle enrichment highlights the utility of soil viromics.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

HIV-1 transmitted drug resistance surveillance: shifting trends in study design and prevalence estimates

HIV-1 transmitted drug resistance (TDR) prevalence increased during the initial years of the antiretroviral therapy (ART) global scale-up. Few studies have examined recent trends in TDR prevalence using published genetic sequences and described the characteristics of ART-naïve persons from whom these published sequences have been obtained. We identified 125 studies published between 2014 and 2019 for which HIV-1 reverse transcriptase (RT) with or without protease from ≥50 ART-naïve adult persons were submitted to the GenBank sequence database. The population characteristics and TDR prevalence were compared to those in 122 studies published in the preceding five years between 2009 and 2013. TDR prevalence was analysed using median study-level and person-level data. The 2009 to 2013 and 2014 to 2019 studies reported sequence data from 32,866 and 41,724 ART-naïve persons respectively. Studies from the low- and middle-income country (LMIC) regions in sub-Saharan Africa, South/Southeast Asia and Latin America/Caribbean accounted for approximately two-thirds of the studies during each period. Between the two periods, the proportion of studies from sub-Saharan Africa and from South/Southeast Asia countries other than China decreased from 43% to 32% and the proportion of studies performed at sentinel sites for recent HIV-1 infection decreased from 33% to 22%. Between 2014 and 2019, median study-level TDR prevalence was 4.1% in South/Southeast Asia, 6.0% in sub-Saharan Africa, 9.1% in Latin America/Caribbean, 8.5% in Europe and 14.2% in North America. In the person-level analysis, there was an increase in overall, NNRTI and two-class NRTI/NNRTI resistance in sub-Saharan Africa; an increase in NNRTI resistance in Latin America/Caribbean, and an increase in overall, NNRTI and PI resistance in North America. Overall, NNRTI and dual NRTI/NNRTI-associated TDR prevalence was significantly higher in sub-Saharan Africa studies published between 2014 and 2019 compared with those published between 2009 and 2013. The decreasing proportion of studies from the hardest hit LMIC regions and the shift away from sentinel sites for recent infection suggests that global TDR surveillance efforts and publication of findings require renewed emphasis.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Anthromes and forest carbon responses to global change

Human effects on ecosystems date back thousands of years, and anthropogenic biomes—anthromes—broadly incorporate the effects of human population density and land use on ecosystems. Forests are integral to the global carbon cycle, containing large biomass carbon stocks, yet their responses to land use and climate change are uncertain but critical to informing climate change mitigation strategies, ecosystem management, and Earth system modeling. Using an anthromes perspective and the site locations from the Global Forest Carbon (ForC) Database, we compare intensively used, cultured, and wildland forest lands in tropical and extratropical regions. We summarize recent past (1900-present) patterns of land use intensification, and we use a feedback analysis of Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 to estimate the sensitivity of forest carbon stocks to CO 2 and temperature change for different anthromes among regions. Modeled global forest carbon stock responses are positive for CO 2 increase but neutral to negative for temperature increase. Across anthromes (intensively used, cultured, and wildland forest areas), modeled forest carbon stock responses of temperate and boreal forests are less variable than those of tropical forests. Tropical wildland forest areas appear especially sensitive to CO 2 and temperature change, with the negative temperature response highlighting the potential vulnerability of the globally significant carbon stock in tropical forests. The net effect of anthropogenic activities—including land-use intensification and environmental change and their interactions with natural forest dynamics—will shape future forest carbon stock changes. These interactive effects will likely be strongest in tropical wildlands.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dependence of ion-cyclotron range of frequencies instabilities on species mix and fast-ion distribution: I. Stability

Ion cyclotron emission (ICE) driven by fast ions has the potential to be a reactor relevant diagnostic of confined and escaping fast ions; moreover, controlled experiments in magnetic fusion devices can shed light on similar magnetospheric instabilities below and above the ion cyclotron frequency f ci . Dedicated DIII-D experiments studied instabilities below f ci and at cyclotron harmonics l f ci by injecting thirteen different neutral beam populations into plasmas with different thermal compositions of H, D, and 3He at five different values of toroidal field. High-frequency magnetic loops diagnose mode properties. Each beam type is individually injected for an approximate slowing-down time (~100 ms), resulting in a database of 2529 conditions that are analyzed in frequency bands corresponding to ICE harmonics and < f ci global Alfvén eigenmodes. The sub-cyclotron modes are more unstable at low field and in plasmas with large H concentration. For D injection, first harmonic ICE at f cD is more unstable in hydrogen plasmas but, for H injection, the converse is true (ICE at f cH is more unstable in D), suggesting that thermal same-species ions damp fundamental ICE. ICE stability also depends upon the pitch-angle anisotropy gradient and upon the ‘bump-on-tail’ gradient ∂f/∂v. Although the frequency of unstable ICE in these plasmas always occurs near the central cyclotron frequency, the precise value also depends on the Alfvén speed and beam direction, consistent with the idea that instability occurs for modes that simultaneously satisfy ω ≃ 2πlf ci , the magnetosonic dispersion relation, and the Doppler-shifted resonance condition.

electromagnetic ion cyclotron instabilities↗

Contribution of citizen science towards international biodiversity monitoring

To meet collective obligations towards biodiversity conservation and monitoring, it is essential that the world's governments and non-governmental organisations as well as the research community tap all possible sources of data and information, including new, fast-growing sources such as citizen science (CS), in which volunteers participate in some or all aspects of environmental assessments. Through compilation of a database on CS and community-based monitoring (CBM, a subset of CS) programs, we assess where contributions from CS and CBM are significant and where opportunities for growth exist. We use the Essential Biodiversity Variable framework to describe the range of biodiversity data needed to track progress towards global biodiversity targets, and we assess strengths and gaps in geographical and taxonomic coverage. Our results show that existing CS and CBM data particularly provide large-scale data on species distribution and population abundance, species traits such as phenology, and ecosystem function variables such as primary and secondary productivity. Only birds, Lepidoptera and plants are monitored at scale. Most CS schemes are found in Europe, North America, South Africa, India, and Australia. We then explore what can be learned from successful CS/CBM programs that would facilitate the scaling up of current efforts, how existing strengths in data coverage can be better exploited, and the strategies that could maximise the synergies between CS/CBM and other approaches for monitoring biodiversity, in particular from remote sensing. More and better targeted funding will be needed, if CS/CBM programs are to contribute further to international biodiversity monitoring.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Core Model Proposal #399: Updating the SSP Database (v3.0) (Population, GDP, and Labor Force) and Labor Productivity (KLEM)

This Core Model Proposal (CMP) updates the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) database to a recent version (v3.0.1; released in 2024) within GCAM. Currently, GCAM relies on socioeconomic drivers, including population, GDP, and labor force projections, from the original SSP database version released in 2013. These projections, provided by independent socioeconomic dynamic models (e.g., multi-dimensional demographic models and macroeconomic models of convergence growth), may need regular updates when (1) near-term observations become available and (2) there are updates and advancements in the socioeconomic modeling. Timely updates of socioeconomic drivers in global economic equilibrium and multisector dynamic modeling will ensure (1) alignment of historical years and near-term projections with observations, enhancing base year calibrations, including calibration parameters and labor productivity, and (2) improvement of long-term projections with updated socioeconomic drivers, which set the scale of the economy. This CMP updates the SSP data (from v2013 to v2024) and also fixes/reconciles historical GDP data sources in GCAM. We investigate the impact of these updates on GCAM projections.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Using Digital and Web-Based Platforms to Enhance Nuclear Power Plant Knowledge Transfer - 20203

As the workforce ages, the loss of experienced personnel can result in a loss of important knowledge. Updating Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) research and guidance with the latest technology developments and operating experience is an important method to transfer knowledge between the retiring and incoming workforce. Studies suggest that the incoming workforce is accustomed to using digital and/or internet-based platforms to find information and may have a higher comfort with these types of platforms than they have with static, written reports. Additionally, the ease and speed of updating and delivering content through digital formats may offer an effective method for knowledge transfer and combining information from multiple reports into a single access point. EPRI has recently produced an online Decommissioning Hub available to members and is working on replicating the effort in the area of radioactive waste management called the Radwaste Web References. EPRI has extensive guidance in both disciplines. The Decommissioning Hub uses a wiki format to provide a platform that allows for both the updating of that guidance resulting from new research and new operating experiences, and combining related topical information from multiple reports. It also allows users to access the information based on key words and topical searches, and can be a tool for users to input experience to share with others. The Decommissioning Hub is accessed via a web-based portal and includes topical pages; experience summaries; a question and answer capability; and a smart search function of all EPRI decommissioning reports. Use of a wiki format allows users to input new experiences or modify existing experience summaries to add additional detail. EPRI moderates all content. The experience data base has been initially populated with information available in published EPRI reports and unpublished information currently available within EPRI. Moving forward, population of the database will continue with information available within the open literature, new information developed from current decommissioning projects, and user inputs. The web site became active in late 2017, and a major update will be issued in early 2020. Larger scale updates are planned biannually, and smaller-scale updates will occur continuously. Capturing and applying lessons learned from industry experiences is a hallmark of the global nuclear industry. This is even more important in the decommissioning technology area since very few plant staff have relevant experience and thus there is a steep learning curve. Moreover, decommissioning involves a number of complex, non-routine and specialized tasks. The web-accessible and searchable experience database provides an easy-to-use resource for capturing and disseminating practical experiences from completed and ongoing decommissioning projects. The EPRI Radwaste Web References will build upon the philosophy and objectives of the Radwaste Desk References that were published in the 1990's. The purpose of the original Radwaste Desk References was to provide nuclear power plant professionals with a how-to manual for managing radioactive waste. The Radwaste Web References will adopt this original purpose and will be a wiki type web site that provide fundamental practical and theoretical information, operating experience (OE), and information about advanced technologies and methods. As much as practicable, features that allow for interaction between users to share OE, best practices, and benchmarking will be added. Where they exist and are appropriate, the various EPRI Guidelines documents on radwaste topics will be updated and incorporated into the Radwaste Web References. The first Radwaste Web Reference will be on Low Level Waste Characterization and will build upon the EPRI Low Level Waste Characterization Guidelines (EPRI Report TR-107201, 1996) and will be available in 2020. The next Radwaste Web Reference will be on the topic of liquid radioactive waste processing and management, tentatively set for unveiling in 2021. This paper summarizes the EPRI's previous experiences with web-based platforms and future plans in this area. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Trajectory Engineering with Modular Patched Conics for Entry Systems and TPS (TEMPEST)

Brief Presenter Biography (35 word limit): Bohdan Wesely is an Aerospace Engineer in the Entry Systems and Technology Division at Ames. He has worked on a variety of projects for NASA including integrated TPS (thermal protection system) flight hardware deliveries and testing services for commercial partners. Introduction: TEMPEST is a new trajectory analysis framework that is designed to fill the gap between dedicated flight mechanics tools and aerothermal and TPS sizing tools. The project started as an SJSU master’s thesis and has since evolved into a general conceptual design tool capable of studying a wide variety of entry problems. Development is ongoing in the Entry Systems and Technology Division at NASA ARC. Why TEMPEST: Space missions involving entry into a planetary atmosphere involve a series of unique requirements across multiple disciplines. Whether it is traditional entry descent and landing (EDL), or aerocapture, the vehicle must navigate to its target landing location or orbit state, and the TPS must protect the payload during entry. The design process typically involves iterative handoffs between various flight mechanics, flow solver, and material response level tools. During the early conceptual phase, a wide variety of feasible trajectories are simulated in a Monte Carlo scenario which broadly satisfy the mission or landing requirements. Next, computational fluid dynamics (CFD), direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC), and other flow solver analyses are performed at various key trajectory points to generate an aero-database, heating and TPS design requirements also emerge at this stage. At this point, with updated aerodynamics from the various flow solvers, trajectories can be re-run, this in turn can change the required freestream conditions for the CFD tools, and as a project progresses, these analyses converge, and uncertainty is reduced. However, there is always a “hand-off” occurring between two inherently coupled phenomena. Analysis Description: One of the goals with TEMPEST is to use a variety of first principles estimation methods coupled with an atmosphere model to predict vehicle aerothermodynamics across the entire flight regime while propagating a 3 or 6 degree of freedom (DoF) trajectory. Aerodynamics methods include modified Newtonian, Maxwell and Cercignani- Lampis-Lord (CLL) for continuum, transitional, and free molecular flow regimes. Aerothermodynamics include boundary layer and reference enthalpy methods, and Mutation++ for non-equilibrium chemistry modeling. TEMPEST is also capable of stitching multiple trajectory segments together to study mission scenarios like multi-pass aerocapture and aero-gravity assists. Most of the program is implemented in MATLAB using modern system objects, it relies on several C++ shared libraries for supporting tools like Gmsh, the Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM), and Mutation++. The various first principles aerothermal estimation methods are discretized across either a structured axisymmetric panel mesh or an unstructured tri-mesh generated from an open-source tool such as Gmsh, this allows solutions on the same mesh to be compared across tools such as CB-Aero. CFD Coupling. A physics-aware, gaussian process CFD anchoring scheme is proposed to adjust the various first principles methods as a CFD database is populated. One goal for this anchoring module is to inform the project where CFD should be run. Full knowledge of the entire trajectory, atmosphere, and aerothermodynamics allows for easier identification of high sensitivity areas and uncertainty quantification. While the first principles effects are well known and proven accurate in existing tools such as CB- Aero and Cart3D, a physics aware CFD anchoring scheme increases tool credibility across a project lifecycle. Material Response Modeling. Correct TPS sizing is critical for optimizing mass for science payloads and ensuring mission success. The process typically involves a thermal analysis along the trajectory with surface heating environments as a boundary condition. Several design constraints are maximum bondline temperature and maximum recession with various margining techniques. The material response tool FIAT, developed out of NASA Ames, is currently being integrated into the TEMPEST environment. TPS recession, shape change, mass loss, and mass property alteration are all factors that can perturb an entry trajectory. For missions like Mars 2020, recession was minimal and was safely handled separately as a post process. For missions such as Jupiter Galileo with a high TPS mass fraction or asteroid entries, recession plays a major role. The proposed fully coupled scheme is to use an epoch-based approach where the trajectory integration is halted after a recession threshold, the energy balance and FIAT are solved at each panel, the mesh, aerodynamics, and mass properties are updated, and the trajectory continues. Several computational tradeoffs have been made during the development of TEMPEST to limit the cost of a single trajectory and preserve its utility as a conceptual, rapid iteration tool. Conclusion: Development of TEMPEST is ongoing and the project is still in its infancy. This talk aims to showcase its unique capabilities to support future NASA entry systems missions.

Bohdan O Wesely↗

The effect of school intervention programs on the body mass index of adolescents: a systematic review with meta-analysis

Abstract Effective obesity interventions in adolescent populations have been identified as an immediate priority action to stem the increasing prevalence of adult obesity. The purpose of this meta-analysis was to make a quantitative analysis of the impact of school-based interventions on body mass index during adolescence. Studies were retrieved from PubMed, Scopus, Science Direct and Web of Science databases. Results were pooled using a random-effects model with 95% confidence interval considered statistically significant. Of the 18 798 possible relevant articles identified, 12 articles were included in this meta-analysis. The global result showed a low magnitude effect, though it was statistically significant (N = 14 428), global e.s. = −0.055, P = 0.004 (95% CI = −0.092, −0.017). Heterogeneity was low among the studies (I2 = 9.017%). The funnel plot showed no evidence of publication bias. The rank-correlation test of Begg (P = 0.45641) and Egger’s regression (P = 0.19459) confirmed the absence of bias. This meta-analysis reported a significant effect favoring the interventions; however, future research are needed since the reported the evidence was of low magnitude, with the studies following a substantial range of approaches and mostly had a modest methodological quality.

Saavedra Dias, R.↗

IMG-ABC. A knowledge base to fuel discovery of biosynthetic gene clusters and novel secondary metabolites

In the discovery of secondary metabolites, analysis of sequence data is a promising exploration path that remains largely underutilized due to the lack of computational platforms that enable such a systematic approach on a large scale. In this work, we present IMG-ABC (https://img.jgi.doe.gov/abc), an atlas of biosynthetic gene clusters within the Integrated Microbial Genomes (IMG) system, which is aimed at harnessing the power of “big” genomic data for discovering small molecules. IMG-ABC relies on IMG’s comprehensive integrated structural and functional genomic data for the analysis of biosynthetic gene clusters (BCs) and associated secondary metabolites (SMs). SMs and BCs serve as the two main classes of objects in IMG-ABC, each with a rich collection of attributes. A unique feature of IMG-ABC is the incorporation of both experimentally validated and computationally predicted BCs in genomes as well as metagenomes, thus identifying BCs in uncultured populations and rare taxa. We demonstrate the strength of IMG-ABC’s focused integrated analysis tools in enabling the exploration of microbial secondary metabolism on a global scale, through the discovery of phenazine-producing clusters for the first time in lphaproteobacteria . IMG-ABC strives to fill the long-existent void of resources for computational exploration of the secondary metabolism universe; its underlying scalable framework enables traversal of uncovered phylogenetic and chemical structure space, serving as a doorway to a new era in the discovery of novel molecules. IMG-ABC is the largest publicly available database of predicted and experimental biosynthetic gene clusters and the secondary metabolites they produce. The system also includes powerful search and analysis tools that are integrated with IMG’s extensive genomic/metagenomic data and analysis tool kits. As new research on biosynthetic gene clusters and secondary metabolites is published and more genomes are sequenced, IMG-ABC will continue to expand, with the goal of becoming an essential component of any bioinformatic exploration of the secondary metabolism world.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Cs-137 Body-burdens in Wild Pigs on the Department of Energy's Savannah River Site: Determination of an Appropriate Framework for Spatiotemporal Analysis of Hunter Dose Tracking System Data

The Savannah River Site (SRS) is a U.S. Department of Energy facility with an area of 310 square miles. Since its opening in 1951, SRS has produced and processed nuclear materials for national defense and industrial purposes. These activities have resulted in the release of radiocesium (Cs-137) which has led to contamination of associated streams, floodplains, man-made reservoirs, soil and vegetation. Contamination is spread to wild pigs as they move about SRS, consume vegetation, drink water and wallow in soil. SRS provides annual deer hunts open to the public in which wild pigs may be taken as well. The Cs-137 concentration of each animal is determined before it is released to the hunter for consumption and a cumulative dose is retained for each individual hunter. These tasks are accomplished using the Hunter Dose Tracking System (HDTS). The data collected on SRS by the HDTS for White-Tailed deer has been extensively analyzed. A repeatable method for calculating the background radiocesium body burden for the SRS deer population was established by Gaines and Novak (2009,2016). This model was framed using Cs-137 contamination obtained via gamma over-flight data, the decay rate of radiocesium and the historical behavior observed in the SRS deer population. These parameters were used in a spatiotemporal analysis to estimate background Cs-137 body burdens (from global fallout, etc.), as well as the effect SRS activities may have. The purpose of this project is to modify the framework to represent the behavior of the wild pig population on SRS such that HDTS data collected may be analyzed similarly. The 2018 data were collected via the HDTS in the field to screen wild pigs dispatched by Forest Service - Savannah River. These data will provide insight for an analysis of seasonal variance in the body burdens of the SRS wild pig population. The HDTS quickly provided Cs-137 concentrations in the field, as well as automatically updated the electronic database. Space: Historically, the average home range of wild pigs on the Savannah River Site has been reported at approximately six square miles. This range was confirmed accurate as of July 2018, with the observed minimum and maximum at one and ten square miles respectively. This range was geoprocessed using ArcMap to project buffers based on 1991 gamma over-flight data. The buffers were constructed to originate at all Cs-137 contamination point coordinates and protrude outward in all directions for 1.5, 2.45 and 6 square miles. While the 2.45 mile buffer is theoretically representative of potential hog exposure based on the average home range, it does not consider the possibility of home ranges not uniform in shape. Therefore, the 1.5 and 6 mile buffers were also constructed as visual aids for determining the appropriate hunt compartments for background level considerations. The SRS is divided into numbered hunt compartments of varying size and shape. These compartment numbers are used during sponsored hunts to record the location in which a wild pig was dispatched. Time: The Gaines report determined deer analysis should be carried out at the half-decade level for the best representation of true body burdens. This is due to the impact natural factors, such as drought or flood, can have on the bioaccumulation of Cs-137. To determine the appropriate time scale for hog analysis, all available data was totaled and averaged at 1, 2, 3 and 7 year increments. The annual averages and running average are provided. The appropriate compartments for the determination of the SRS hog population background level should be: 2, 3, 4, 9, 10, 14 and 15. Hogs dispatched within other compartments are most likely exposed to Cs-137 contamination and should not be included in the background level. The current dataset is small, but was still able to demonstrate the relationship between where hogs on SRS and the Cs-137 body burdens they incur. Geoprocessing the data using the average home range of wild pigs highlighted the importance of collecting additional samples from areas surrounding SRS if an accurate background is to be determined. When the average concentration of Cs-137 in pigs from background compartments is compared against that of pigs from contaminated compartments, a significant difference can be seen. A Table provides a summary of the analyzed data from the 15 years processed thus far.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

The interactive global fire module pyrE (v1.0)

Fires affect the composition of the atmosphere and Earth’s radiation balance by emitting a suite of reactive gases and particles. An interactive fire module in an Earth system model (ESM) allows us to study the natural and anthropogenic drivers, feedbacks, and interactions of open fires. To do so, we have developed pyrE, the NASA GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) interactive fire emissions *module. The pyrE module is driven by environmental variables like flammability and cloud-to-ground lightning, calculated by the GISS ModelE ESM, and parameterized by anthropogenic impacts based on population density data. Fire emissions are generated from the flaming phase in pyrE (active fires). Using pyrE, we examine fire occurrence, regional fire suppression, burned area, fire emissions, and how it all affects atmospheric composition. To do so, we evaluate pyrE by comparing it to satellite-based datasets of fire count, burned area, fire emissions, and aerosol optical depth (AOD). We demonstrate pyrE’s ability to simulate the daily and seasonal cycles of open fires and resulting emissions. Our results indicate that interactive fire emissions are biased low by 32 %–42 %, depending on emitted species, compared to the GFED4s (Global Fire Emissions Database) inventory. The bias in emissions drives underestimation in column densities, which is diluted by natural and anthropogenic emissions sources and production and loss mechanisms. Regionally, the resulting AOD of a simulation with interactive fire emissions is underestimated mostly over Indonesia compared to a simulation with GFED4s emissions and to MODIS AOD. In other parts of the world pyrE’s performance in terms of AOD is marginal to a simulation with prescribed fire emissions.

Fires↗

Using Satellites to Investigate the Sensitivity of Longwave Downward Radiation to Water Vapor at High Elevations

Many studies suggest that high-elevation regions may be among the most sensitive to future climate change. However, in situ observations in these often remote locations are too sparse to determine the feedbacks responsible for enhanced warming rates. One of these feedbacks is associated with the sensitivity of longwave downward radiation (LDR) to changes in water vapor, with the sensitivity being particularly large in many high-elevation regions where the average water vapor is often low. We show that satellite retrievals from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) can be used to expand the current ground-based observational database and that the monthly averaged clear-sky satellite estimates of humidity and LDR are in good agreement with the well-instrumented Center for Snow and Avalanche Studies ground-based site in the southwestern Colorado Rocky Mountains. The relationship between MODIS-retrieved precipitable water vapor and surface specific humidity across the contiguous United States was found to be similar to that previously found for the Alps. More important, we show that satellites capture the nonlinear relationship between LDR and water vapor and confirm that LDR is especially sensitive to changes in water vapor at high elevations in several midlatitude mountain ranges. Because the global population depends on adequate fresh water, much of which has its source in high mountains, it is critically important to understand how climate will change there. We demonstrate that satellites can be used to investigate these feedbacks in high-elevation regions where the coverage of surface-based observations is insufficient to do so.

Naud, Catherine M.↗

SWIPE: Spectral Water Inversion Processor and Emulator

Degradation of Earth’s inland water resources due to anthropogenic perturbations and climate anomalies at both local and global scales continues to place human health at substantial risk. There is now a growing necessity to develop pragmatic approaches that allow timely and effective extrapolation of local processes, to spatially resolved global products, and to promote operational and sustainable resource policy management. This presentation will be discussing the progress made developing SWIPE: Spectral Water Inversion Processor and Emulator. SWIPE is a platform for advanced modeling of coastal and inland aquatic habitats. The goal is create a comprehensive and cohesive system to leverage recent advancements in computation and machine learning to develop a synthetic training ground for sensitivity studies and algorithm development. The four principal facets of SWIPE include: 1. Advanced two-layer coated sphere bio-optical modeling and GPU radiative transfer modeling, 2. Big Data involving massive synthetic spectral libraries of optical properties of various global aquatic particles, surface reflectance, and top-of-atmosphere reflectance, all at hyperspectral resolution leveraging high-end computing systems at NASA Ames Research Center, 3. Deep Learning for algorithm development for water quality inversion of concentrations of common biogeophysical variables as well as optics, full uncertainty characterization by water type, and forward emulation, and lastly, 4. Image Processing for application of developed retrieval algorithms for both hyperspectral and multispectral sensors with experimental corrections for global adjacency, noise, sunglint, and benthic reflectance. This presentation will demonstrate the Equivalent Algal Populations (EAP) two-layer coated sphere scattering model which has been used develop spectral libraries of hyperspectral inherent optical properties of roughly 80 species of phytoplankton, covering 15 different classes and nine taxonomic functional types. The EAP model was also used to derive spectral properties of 10 different non-algal particle functional types. Examples of how the SMART-G (Speed-up Monte-carlo Advanced Radiative Transfer using GPU) radiative transfer code is used to model optically complex aquatic signals will be presented and discussed in the context of creating a massive synthetic database which can leverage the full power of next generation machine learning techniques and high end computing for water quality inversion. We will discuss our active investigation in things like appropriate model architectures, dimensionality reduction techniques such as PCA and autoencoders, uncertainty quantification and abstaining, and which variables actually benefit most from hyperspectral information versus multispectral resolution. We are also curious about questions relating to cost/benefit analysis in terms of computation resources, neural network complexity, and data volumes. Answers to these questions will hopefully elaborate on cost efficiency for potential future sensor design considerations.

SWIPE↗

Soil Viruses Are Underexplored Players in Ecosystem Carbon Processing

ABSTRACT Rapidly thawing permafrost harbors ∼30 to 50% of global soil carbon, and the fate of this carbon remains unknown. Microorganisms will play a central role in its fate, and their viruses could modulate that impact via induced mortality and metabolic controls. Because of the challenges of recovering viruses from soils, little is known about soil viruses or their role(s) in microbial biogeochemical cycling. Here, we describe 53 viral populations (viral operational taxonomic units [vOTUs]) recovered from seven quantitatively derived (i.e., not multiple-displacement-amplified) viral-particle metagenomes (viromes) along a permafrost thaw gradient at the Stordalen Mire field site in northern Sweden. Only 15% of these vOTUs had genetic similarity to publicly available viruses in the RefSeq database, and ∼30% of the genes could be annotated, supporting the concept of soils as reservoirs of substantial undescribed viral genetic diversity. The vOTUs exhibited distinct ecology, with different distributions along the thaw gradient habitats, and a shift from soil-virus-like assemblages in the dry palsas to aquatic-virus-like assemblages in the inundated fen. Seventeen vOTUs were linked to microbial hosts ( in silico ), implicating viruses in infecting abundant microbial lineages from Acidobacteria , Verrucomicrobia , and Deltaproteobacteria , including those encoding key biogeochemical functions such as organic matter degradation. Thirty auxiliary metabolic genes (AMGs) were identified and suggested virus-mediated modulation of central carbon metabolism, soil organic matter degradation, polysaccharide binding, and regulation of sporulation. Together, these findings suggest that these soil viruses have distinct ecology, impact host-mediated biogeochemistry, and likely impact ecosystem function in the rapidly changing Arctic. IMPORTANCE This work is part of a 10-year project to examine thawing permafrost peatlands and is the first virome-particle-based approach to characterize viruses in these systems. This method yielded >2-fold-more viral populations (vOTUs) per gigabase of metagenome than vOTUs derived from bulk-soil metagenomes from the same site (J. B. Emerson, S. Roux, J. R. Brum, B. Bolduc, et al., Nat Microbiol 3:870–880, 2018, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41564-018-0190-y). We compared the ecology of the recovered vOTUs along a permafrost thaw gradient and found (i) habitat specificity, (ii) a shift in viral community identity from soil-like to aquatic-like viruses, (iii) infection of dominant microbial hosts, and (iv) carriage of host metabolic genes. These vOTUs can impact ecosystem carbon processing via top-down (inferred from lysing dominant microbial hosts) and bottom-up (inferred from carriage of auxiliary metabolic genes) controls. This work serves as a foundation which future studies can build upon to increase our understanding of the soil virosphere and how viruses affect soil ecosystem services.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Protected areas’ role in climate-change mitigation

Around the worl, 15.5 million km 2 of land are currently identified as protected areas, which provide society with many ecosystem services including climate-change mitigation. Combining a global database of protected areas, a reconstruction of global land-use history, and a global biogeochemistry model, we believe that protected areas currently sequester 0.5 Pg C annually, which is about one fifth of the carbon sequestered by all land ecosystems annually. Utilizing an integrated earth systems model to generate climate and land-use scenarios for the twenty-first century, we project that rapid climate change, similar to high-end projections in IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report, would cause the annual carbon sequestration rate in protected areas to drop to about 0.3 Pg C by 2100. For the scenario with both rapid climate change and extensive land-use change driven by population and economic pressures, 5.6 million km 2 of protected areas would be converted to other uses, and carbon sequestration in the remaining protected areas would drop to near zero by 2100.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Output Data: gcam_usa_v5p3_im3

Output databases and tables supporting the publication: Khan, Z., Zhao, M., Ahsan, H., Wolfram, P., Vernon, C., Rice, J., Iyer, G., Binsted, M., Snyder, A., Graham, N., Kyle, P., 2023. Coevolution of future water, energy and land systems across the United States in response to national and global socioeconomic, climate, and energy policy drivers. (In progress) Earths Future, DOI: XXX with further details available at the meta-repository: https://immm-sfa.github.io/khan-etal_2023_im3gcamusa Folder: gcam_usa_im3_outputs (GCAM USA v 5.3 used for IM3 experiment Output Databases): database_rcp45cooler_ssp3.tar.gz database_rcp45cooler_ssp5.tar.gz database_rcp45hotter_ssp5.tar.gz database_rcp45hotter_ssp5.tar.gz database_rcp85cooler_ssp3.tar.gz database_rcp85cooler_ssp5.tar.gz database_rcp85hotter_ssp5.tar.gz database_rcp85hotter_ssp5.tar.gz Folder: gcam_usa_im3_gcamextractor_outputs (gcamextractor post-processing of the GCAM databases for specific downstream models ): dataGCAM_cerf.tar.gz (For CERF Model) dataGCAM_demeter.tar.gz (For Demeter model) dataGCAM_go.tar.gz (For GO model) gcamDataTable.tar.gz (All IM3 scenarios)

Climate Change↗

An In-Depth Study of the Abundance Pattern in the Hot Interstellar Medium in NGC 4649

We present our X-ray imaging spectroscopic analysis of data from deep Suzuku and XMM-Newton Observatory exposures of the Virgo Cluster elliptical galaxy NGC 4649 (M60), focusing on the abundance pattern in the hot interstellar medium (ISM). All measured elements show a radial decline in abundance, with the possible exception of O. We construct steady state solutions to the chemical evolution equations that include infall in addition to stellar mass return and SNIa enrichment, and consider recently published SNIa yields. By adjusting a single model parameter to obtain a match to the global abundance pattern in NGC 4649 we infer that accretion of subsolar metallicity external gas has reduced the overall ISM metallicity and diluted the effectiveness of SNIa to skew the pattern towards low alpha/Fe ratios, and estimate the combination of SNIa rate and level of dilution. Evidently, newly-introduced gas is heated as it is integrated into. and interacts with, the hot gas that is already present. These results indicate a complex flow and enrichment history for NGC 4649, reflecting the continual evolution of elliptical galaxies beyond the formation epoch. The heating and circulation of accreted gas may help reconcile this dynamic history with the mostly passive evolution of elliptical stellar populations. In an appendix we examine the effects of the recent updated atomic database AtomDB in spectral fitting of thermal plasmas with hot ISM temperatures in the elliptical galaxy range.

Lowenstein, Michael↗