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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2015

Multimodel Ensembles of Wheat Growth: Many Models are Better than One

Crop models of crop growth are increasingly used to quantify the impact of global changes due to climate or crop management. Therefore, accuracy of simulation results is a major concern. Studies with ensembles of crop model scan give valuable information about model accuracy and uncertainty, but such studies are difficult to organize and have only recently begun. We report on the largest ensemble study to date, of 27 wheat models tested in four contrasting locations for their accuracy in simulating multiple crop growth and yield variables. The relative error averaged over models was 2438 for the different end-of-season variables including grain yield (GY) and grain protein concentration (GPC). There was little relation between error of a model for GY or GPC and error for in-season variables. Thus, most models did not arrive at accurate simulations of GY and GPC by accurately simulating preceding growth dynamics. Ensemble simulations, taking either the mean (e-mean) or median (e-median) of simulated values, gave better estimates than any individual model when all variables were considered. Compared to individual models, e-median ranked first in simulating measured GY and third in GPC. The error of e-mean and e-median declined with an increasing number of ensemble members, with little decrease beyond 10 models. We conclude that multimodel ensembles can be used to create new estimators with improved accuracy and consistency in simulating growth dynamics. We argue that these results are applicable to other crop species, and hypothesize that they apply more generally to ecological system models.

model intercomparison↗
NASA NTRS2024

Quantification of Uncertainty and Risk Sensitivity for Safety of Emerging Operations

The growing need to develop and deploy small unmanned aerial vehicles (sUAVs) for various applications in the airspace necessitates reliable tools to accurately predict the flight trajectories of the sUAVs. The knowledge of the predicted trajectories help decision makers anticipate potential conflict, assess the risk, and take appropriate risk mitigation actions. In addition, uncertainties in vehicle models, weather, and controller action further highlights the need for reliable prediction tools. In this project, the application of mixed sparse grid-based quadrature and generalized polynomial chaos(gPC) expansion method for uncertainty quantification and collision assessment in air traffic consisting of fixed-wing small unmanned aerial vehicles (sUAV) was studied. From the results obtained, it can be concluded that this provides a reliable framework to carry out quantitative conflict assessment in an unmanned air traffic, which when employed, can improve the functionalities of the unmanned traffic management system. It was observed that the results from the gPC expansion framework developed in the project can be utilized to conduct rapid probabilistic collision assessment for near real-time unmanned traffic management in the airspace. From the vehicle models, position updates, and wind-field data, a priori gPC based 3-σcon-fidence ellipses can provide estimates of potential conflict at some future instants. The computational costs scaled linearly when the uncertain inputs were fewer. Further, the largest allowable distribution of para-metric uncertainties that leads to the smallest risk of collision in traffic of small unmanned aerial vehicles could be calculated. The time of closest approach between two sUAVs can be established paving way for development of proactive mitigation strategies. The separation between the sUAVs was found to be most significantly affected by uncertainties in the maximum available thrusts, zero-lift drag coefficients, and wing planform areas of the sUAVs. The study of uncertain wind-fields indicated that a heterogeneous traffic mix resulted in an increased probability of conflict. Increased measurement update rate reduced the uncertain-ties in the trajectories of the vehicles, further reducing the probability of conflict but rapid updates of all vehicles in the airspace poses a stringent communication limitation. The gPC framework also provided the means to analyze vehicle impact (crash region) due to loss of control resulting from actuator failure in sUAS traffic, essentially to predict impact and crash zones for representative vehicles. The predicted regions when compared with non-participant density, provides a means to develop an early mitigation strategy, should the sUAV detect an imminent actuator failure.

Rajnish Bhusal↗
DOE OSTI2021

Efficient Active Learning for Gaussian Process Classification by Error Reduction

Active learning sequentially selects the best instance for labeling by optimizing an acquisition function to enhance data/label efficiency. The selection can be either from a discrete instance set (pool-based scenario) or a continuous instance space (query synthesis scenario). In this work, we study both active learning scenarios for Gaussian Process Classification (GPC). The existing active learning strategies that maximize the Estimated Error Reduction (EER) aim at reducing the classification error after training with the new acquired instance in a onestep-look-ahead manner. The computation of EER-based acquisition functions is typically prohibitive as it requires retraining the GPC with every new query. Moreover, as the EER is not smooth, it can not be combined with gradient-based optimization techniques to efficiently explore the continuous instance space for query synthesis. To overcome these critical limitations, we develop computationally efficient algorithms for EER-based active learning with GPC. Further, we derive the joint predictive distribution of label pairs as a one-dimensional integral, as a result of which the computation of the acquisition function avoids retraining the GPC for each query, remarkably reducing the computational overhead. We also derive the gradient chain rule to efficiently calculate the gradient of the acquisition function, which leads to the first query synthesis active learning algorithm implementing EER-based strategies. Our experiments clearly demonstrate the computational efficiency of the proposed algorithms. We also benchmark our algorithms on both synthetic and real-world datasets, which show superior performance in terms of sampling efficiency compared to the existing state-of-the-art algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Flow-driven spectral chaos (FSC) method for simulating long-time dynamics of arbitrary-order non-linear stochastic dynamical systems

Uncertainty quantification techniques such as the time-dependent generalized polynomial chaos (TD-gPC) use an adaptive orthogonal basis to better represent the stochastic part of the solution space (aka random function space) in time. However, because the random function space is constructed using tensor products, TD-gPC-based methods are known to suffer from the curse of dimensionality. Here, we introduce a new numerical method called the flow-driven spectral chaos (FSC) which overcomes this curse of dimensionality at the random-function-space level. The proposed method is not only computationally more efficient than existing TD-gPC-based methods but is also far more accurate. The FSC method uses the concept of enriched stochastic flow maps to track the evolution of a finite-dimensional random function space efficiently in time. To transfer the probability information from one random function space to another, two approaches are developed and studied herein. In the first approach, the probability information is transferred in the mean-square sense, whereas in the second approach the transfer is done exactly using a new theorem that was developed for this purpose. The FSC method can quantify uncertainties with high fidelity, especially for the long-time response of stochastic dynamical systems governed by ODEs of arbitrary order. Six representative numerical examples, including a nonlinear problem (the Van-der-Pol oscillator), are presented to demonstrate the performance of the FSC method and corroborate the claims of its superior numerical properties. Finally, a parametric, high-dimensional stochastic problem is used to demonstrate that when the FSC method is used in conjunction with Monte Carlo integration, the curse of dimensionality can be overcome altogether.

(nonlinear) stochastic dynamical systems↗
DOE OSTI2024

Connecting radiation-driven changes in structural, thermal, and mechanical properties in several medical device polymers

Stemming from security threats and shortages in supply, a recent push has emerged to develop alternatives to radioisotope Cobalt-60 gamma radiation for sterilization of polymeric medical products, including electron beam (e-beam) and X-ray machine-based sources. However, before large-scale implementation, the effects of these non-isotope-based methods must be thoroughly investigated from several perspectives, involving their potential detrimental effects on the structural, thermal, and mechanical properties of polymers in medical devices. This paper investigates such effects in commonly used medical device polymers, including polypropylene homopolymer (PPH), polyolefin elastomer (POE), low-density polyethylene (LDPE), acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS), and chlorobutyl rubber (CIIR). To connect radiation-driven changes in polymer structural and thermal properties and corresponding changes in mechanical properties, several characterization techniques were utilized, including gel permeation chromatography (GPC), Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA) and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). We found that the tensile strength of X-ray irradiated PPH, as well as X-ray, e-beam, and gamma irradiated CIIR decreases due to chain scission, which is corroborated by GPC and DMA. The GPC results of LDPE suggest chain scission, but interestingly without a corresponding decline in tensile strength. By comparison, POE and ABS appear to undergo further crosslinking with increasing irradiation dose, which generally strengthens them. Importantly, in the vast majority of the cases, there were small to no changes in properties upon changing radiation technologies (at a given dose), i.e., no radiation source dependence. However, in a few specific cases, radiation method dependencies did arise, for instance, in terms of the molecular weight of PPH being significantly increased upon X-ray irradiation, while the melting temperature, glass transition temperature, and elongation at break reduced compared to gamma. Overall, this study provides valuable insight into radiation-driven chemical and structural changes in polymers that produce changes in physical and functional properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Intelligent Agents for the Optimization of Atomic Layer Deposition

Atomic layer deposition (ALD) is a highly controllable thin film synthesis approach with applications in computing, energy, and separations. The flexibility of ALD means that it can access a massive chemical catalogue; however, this chemical and process diversity results in significant challenges in determining processing parameters that result in stable and uniform film growth with minimal precursor consumption. In situ measurements of the ALD growth per cycle (GPC) can accelerate process development but it still requires expert intuition and time-consuming trial and error to identify acceptable processing parameters. This procedure is made more difficult by the presence of experimental noise in the GPC values and the complexity of ALD surface chemistries. Here, a need exists for efficient optimization approaches capable of autonomously determining processing conditions resulting in optimal ALD film growth. In this work, we present the development of three optimization strategies and compare their performance in optimizing four simulated ALD processes. Furthermore, the effect of noise in the GPC measurements on optimization convergence is studied.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Population of Merging Compact Binaries Inferred Using Gravitational Waves through GWTC-3

We report on the population properties of compact binary mergers inferred from gravitational-wave observations of these systems during the first three LIGO-Virgo observing runs. The Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog 3 (GWTC-3) contains signals consistent with three classes of binary mergers: binary black hole, binary neutron star, and neutron star–black hole mergers. We infer the binary neutron star merger rate to be between 10 and 1700 Gpc − 3 yr − 1 and the neutron star–black hole merger rate to be between 7.8 and 140 Gpc − 3 yr − 1 , assuming a constant rate density in the comoving frame and taking the union of 90% credible intervals for methods used in this work. We infer the binary black hole merger rate, allowing for evolution with redshift, to be between 17.9 and 44 Gpc − 3 yr − 1 at a fiducial redshift ( z = 0.2 ). The rate of binary black hole mergers is observed to increase with redshift at a rate proportional to ( 1 + z ) κ with κ = 2. 9 − 1.8 + 1.7 for z ≲ 1 . Using both binary neutron star and neutron star–black hole binaries, we obtain a broad, relatively flat neutron star mass distribution extending from 1.2 − 0.2 + 0.1 to 2.0 − 0.3 + 0.3 M ⊙ . We confidently determine that the merger rate as a function of mass sharply declines after the expected maximum neutron star mass, but cannot yet confirm or rule out the existence of a lower mass gap between neutron stars and black holes. We also find the binary black hole mass distribution has localized over- and underdensities relative to a power-law distribution, with peaks emerging at chirp masses of 8.3 − 0.5 + 0.3 and 27.9 − 1.8 + 1.9 M ⊙ . While we continue to find that the mass distribution of a binary’s more massive component strongly decreases as a function of primary mass, we observe no evidence of a strongly suppressed merger rate above approximately 60 M ⊙ , which would indicate the presence of a upper mass gap. Observed black hole spins are small, with half of spin magnitudes below χ i ≈ 0.25 . While the majority of spins are preferentially aligned with the orbital angular momentum, we infer evidence of antialigned spins among the binary population. We observe an increase in spin magnitude for systems with more unequal-mass ratio. We also observe evidence of misalignment of spins relative to the orbital angular momentum. Published by the American Physical Society 2023

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Inverse Modeling of Hydrologic Parameters in CLM4 via Generalized Polynomial Chaos in the Bayesian Framework

In this work, generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansion for land surface model parameter estimation is evaluated. We perform inverse modeling and compute the posterior distribution of the critical hydrological parameters that are subject to great uncertainty in the Community Land Model (CLM) for a given value of the output LH. The unknown parameters include those that have been identified as the most influential factors on the simulations of surface and subsurface runoff, latent and sensible heat fluxes, and soil moisture in CLM4.0. We set up the inversion problem in the Bayesian framework in two steps: (i) building a surrogate model expressing the input–output mapping, and (ii) performing inverse modeling and computing the posterior distributions of the input parameters using observation data for a given value of the output LH. The development of the surrogate model is carried out with a Bayesian procedure based on the variable selection methods that use gPC expansions. Our approach accounts for bases selection uncertainty and quantifies the importance of the gPC terms, and, hence, all of the input parameters, via the associated posterior probabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1989

Molecular weight characterization of advanced thermoplastic resins

Analytical techniques including low angle laser light scattering photometry (LALLS), differential viscometry (DV), gel permeation chromatography (GPC), GPC-LALLS and GPC-DV, were used to characterize the molecular weight and molecular weight distribution of several advanced thermoplastics. A discussion is presented of various molecular-weight-related parameters obtained by these techniques on an experimental polyimide and poly(arylene ether ketone) and a commercially available polysulfone. Where possible, these parameters are correlated with processability and selected mechanical properties. The molecular weight was found to vary during the thermal conversion of poly(amic acid) to polyimide. However, no change in composition of the polysulfone was noted in response to various processing procedures.

Young, Philip R.↗
NASA NTRS1993

On identified predictive control

Self-tuning control algorithms are potential successors to manually tuned PID controllers traditionally used in process control applications. A very attractive design method for self-tuning controllers, which has been developed over recent years, is the long-range predictive control (LRPC). The success of LRPC is due to its effectiveness with plants of unknown order and dead-time which may be simultaneously nonminimum phase and unstable or have multiple lightly damped poles (as in the case of flexible structures or flexible robot arms). LRPC is a receding horizon strategy and can be, in general terms, summarized as follows. Using assumed long-range (or multi-step) cost function the optimal control law is found in terms of unknown parameters of the predictor model of the process, current input-output sequence, and future reference signal sequence. The common approach is to assume that the input-output process model is known or separately identified and then to find the parameters of the predictor model. Once these are known, the optimal control law determines control signal at the current time t which is applied at the process input and the whole procedure is repeated at the next time instant. Most of the recent research in this field is apparently centered around the LRPC formulation developed by Clarke et al., known as generalized predictive control (GPC). GPC uses ARIMAX/CARIMA model of the process in its input-output formulation. In this paper, the GPC formulation is used but the process predictor model is derived from the state space formulation of the ARIMAX model and is directly identified over the receding horizon, i.e., using current input-output sequence. The underlying technique in the design of identified predictive control (IPC) algorithm is the identification algorithm of observer/Kalman filter Markov parameters developed by Juang et al. at NASA Langley Research Center and successfully applied to identification of flexible structures.

Bialasiewicz, Jan T.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Development of Aeroservoelastic Analytical Models and Gust Load Alleviation Control Laws of a SensorCraft Wind-Tunnel Model Using Measured Data

Aeroservoelastic (ASE) analytical models of a SensorCraft wind-tunnel model are generated using measured data. The data was acquired during the ASE wind-tunnel test of the HiLDA (High Lift-to-Drag Active) Wing model, tested in the NASA Langley Transonic Dynamics Tunnel (TDT) in late 2004. Two time-domain system identification techniques are applied to the development of the ASE analytical models: impulse response (IR) method and the Generalized Predictive Control (GPC) method. Using measured control surface inputs (frequency sweeps) and associated sensor responses, the IR method is used to extract corresponding input/output impulse response pairs. These impulse responses are then transformed into state-space models for use in ASE analyses. Similarly, the GPC method transforms measured random control surface inputs and associated sensor responses into an AutoRegressive with eXogenous input (ARX) model. The ARX model is then used to develop the gust load alleviation (GLA) control law. For the IR method, comparison of measured with simulated responses are presented to investigate the accuracy of the ASE analytical models developed. For the GPC method, comparison of simulated open-loop and closed-loop (GLA) time histories are presented.

Silva, Walter A.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Development of Aeroservoelastic Analytical Models and Gust Load Alleviation Control Laws of a SensorCraft Wind-Tunnel Model Using Measured Data

Aeroservoelastic (ASE) analytical models of a SensorCraft wind-tunnel model are generated using measured data. The data was acquired during the ASE wind-tunnel test of the HiLDA (High Lift-to-Drag Active) Wing model, tested in the NASA Langley Transonic Dynamics Tunnel (TDT) in late 2004. Two time-domain system identification techniques are applied to the development of the ASE analytical models: impulse response (IR) method and the Generalized Predictive Control (GPC) method. Using measured control surface inputs (frequency sweeps) and associated sensor responses, the IR method is used to extract corresponding input/output impulse response pairs. These impulse responses are then transformed into state-space models for use in ASE analyses. Similarly, the GPC method transforms measured random control surface inputs and associated sensor responses into an AutoRegressive with eXogenous input (ARX) model. The ARX model is then used to develop the gust load alleviation (GLA) control law. For the IR method, comparison of measured with simulated responses are presented to investigate the accuracy of the ASE analytical models developed. For the GPC method, comparison of simulated open-loop and closed-loop (GLA) time histories are presented.

Walter A. Silva↗
NASA NTRS2008

Replication of Space-Shuttle Computers in FPGAs and ASICs

A document discusses the replication of the functionality of the onboard space-shuttle general-purpose computers (GPCs) in field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs) and application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs). The purpose of the replication effort is to enable utilization of proven space-shuttle flight software and software-development facilities to the extent possible during development of software for flight computers for a new generation of launch vehicles derived from the space shuttles. The replication involves specifying the instruction set of the central processing unit and the input/output processor (IOP) of the space-shuttle GPC in a hardware description language (HDL). The HDL is synthesized to form a "core" processor in an FPGA or, less preferably, in an ASIC. The core processor can be used to create a flight-control card to be inserted into a new avionics computer. The IOP of the GPC as implemented in the core processor could be designed to support data-bus protocols other than that of a multiplexer interface adapter (MIA) used in the space shuttle. Hence, a computer containing the core processor could be tailored to communicate via the space-shuttle GPC bus and/or one or more other buses.

Ferguson, Roscoe C.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Generalized Predictive Control of Dynamic Systems with Rigid-Body Modes

Numerical simulations to assess the effectiveness of Generalized Predictive Control (GPC) for active control of dynamic systems having rigid-body modes are presented. GPC is a linear, time-invariant, multi-input/multi-output predictive control method that uses an ARX model to characterize the system and to design the controller. Although the method can accommodate both embedded (implicit) and explicit feedforward paths for incorporation of disturbance effects, only the case of embedded feedforward in which the disturbances are assumed to be unknown is considered here. Results from numerical simulations using mathematical models of both a free-free three-degree-of-freedom mass-spring-dashpot system and the XV-15 tiltrotor research aircraft are presented. In regulation mode operation, which calls for zero system response in the presence of disturbances, the simulations showed reductions of nearly 100%. In tracking mode operations, where the system is commanded to follow a specified path, the GPC controllers produced the desired responses, even in the presence of disturbances.

Kvaternik, Raymond G.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Physics-Based Limiter Redesign and Bit Performance Analysis at The Geysers

As part of a U.S. DOE Geothermal Technologies Office funding opportunity, Geysers Power Company, LLC (GPC), an indirect subsidiary of Calpine Corporation, partnered with Sandia National Labs, EGI at the University of Utah, and Texas A&M University to demonstrate increased drilling performance at The Geysers Geothermal Field. The performance target in the drilling demonstrations is at least a 25% improvement in rates of penetration, with increased footage on bottom for each bit coupled with increased bit life and time drilling. The project leverages advances in oil and gas drilling technologies including PDC bits, along with the physics-based limiter redesign techniques championed in drilling demonstrations conducted at the Utah FORGE geothermal site. The planned drilling demonstrations are being conducted as part of an existing drilling campaign intended to enhance reservoir utilization. The wells are typically drilled to the top of the reservoir with mud and then air-drilled to total depth (TD) through fractured zones at temperatures ≥ 450°F. A major goal of the project is to assess the effectiveness of implementing mechanical specific energy (MSE) and drilling dysfunction diagnosis and remediation in these challenging environments, as well as alternate rock reduction technologies. The first demonstration well has been completed, with 15 PDC bit runs in the 17.5”, 12.25” and 8.5” sections. Initial analysis shows ROP gains in all three sections, especially in the 17.5” and 12.25” sections, compared with conventional roller cone bit runs in the demonstration well and offset wells. However, in the 8.5” hole, wear and damage to the PDC bits resulted in relatively short bit runs. Analysis is underway to take advantage of the positive results and remediate the challenges. This paper provides updates on drilling activities conducted since the Phase 1 demonstration well at GDC-36 which was drilled from November 2023-January 2024. Additional analysis of the bit performance has been conducted. Furthermore, in subsequent wells drilled by GPC, PDC bits have been used extensively, building on the gains realized at GDC-36. GPC has continued to work with bit vendors to identify designs that last longer in the harsh, air-drilled 8.5” portions of the wells. Planning for the Phase 2 demonstration at Prati-44 is ongoing.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Flow-driven spectral chaos (FSC) method for long-time integration of second-order stochastic dynamical systems

For decades, uncertainty quantification techniques based on the spectral approach have been demonstrated to be computationally more efficient than the Monte Carlo method for a wide variety of problems, particularly when the dimensionality of the probability space is relatively low. The time-dependent generalized polynomial chaos (TD-gPC) is one such technique that uses an evolving orthogonal basis to better represent the stochastic part of the solution space in time. Here in this paper, we present a new numerical method that uses the concept of enriched stochastic flow maps to track the evolution of the stochastic part of the solution space in time. The computational cost of this proposed flow-driven stochastic chaos (FSC) method is an order of magnitude lower than TD-gPC for comparable solution accuracy. This gain in computational cost is realized because, unlike most existing methods, the number of basis vectors required to track the stochastic part of the solution space does not depend upon the dimensionality of the probability space. Four representative numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the performance of the FSC method for long-time integration of second-order stochastic dynamical systems in the context of stochastic dynamics of structures.

FSC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Crimean Congo hemorrhagic fever virus nucleoprotein and GP38 subunit vaccine combination prevents morbidity in mice

Immunizing mice with Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) nucleoprotein (NP), glycoprotein precursor (GPC), or with the GP38 domain of GPC, can be protective when the proteins are delivered with viral vectors or as a DNA or RNA vaccine. Subunit vaccines are a safe and cost-effective alternative to some vaccine platforms, but Gc and Gn glycoprotein subunit vaccines for CCHFV fail to protect despite eliciting high levels of neutralizing antibodies. Here, we investigated humoral and cellular immune responses and the protective efficacy of recombinant NP, GP38, and GP38 forms (GP85 and GP160) associated with the highly glycosylated mucin-like (MLD) domain, as well as the NP + GP38 combination. Vaccination with GP160, GP85, or GP38 did not confer protection, and vaccination with the MLD-associated GP38 forms blunted the humoral immune responses to GP38, worsened clinical chemistry, and increased viral RNA in the blood compared to the GP38 vaccination. In contrast, NP vaccination conferred 100% protection from lethal outcome and was associated with mild clinical disease, while the NP + GP38 combination conferred even more robust protection by reducing morbidity compared to mice receiving NP alone. Thus, recombinant CCHFV NP alone is a promising vaccine candidate conferring 100% survival against heterologous challenge. Moreover, incorporation of GP38 should be considered as it further enhances subunit vaccine efficacy by reducing morbidity in surviving animals.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗