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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Nuclear Data Adjustment for Nonlinear Applications in the OECD/NEA WPNCS SG14 Benchmark—A Bayesian Inverse UQ-Based Approach for Data Assimilation

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Working Party on Nuclear Criticality Safety has proposed a benchmark exercise to assess the performance of current nuclear data adjustment techniques applied to nonlinear applications and experiments with low correlation to applications. This work introduces Bayesian inverse uncertainty quantification (IUQ) employing scientific machine learning surrogate models as a method for nuclear data adjustments in this benchmark, and compares IUQ to the more traditional methods of generalized linear least squares (GLLS) and Monte Carlo Bayes (MOCABA). Posterior predictions from IUQ showed agreement with GLLS and MOCABA for linear applications. Here, when comparing GLLS, MOCABA, and IUQ posterior predictions to computed model responses using adjusted parameters, we observe that the GLLS predictions failed to replicate the computed response distributions for nonlinear applications, while MOCABA showed near agreement, and IUQ used the computed model responses directly. We also discuss observations on why experiments with low correlation to applications can be informative to nuclear data adjustments and identify some properties useful in selecting experiments for inclusion in nuclear data adjustment. Performance in this benchmark indicates potential for Bayesian IUQ in nuclear data adjustments.

Bayesian calibration↗
DOE OSTI2021

Uncertainty Quantification of Geophysical Inversion Using Stochastic Partial Differential Equations (LDRD #218329)

This report summarizes work completed under the Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project "Uncertainty Quantification of Geophysical Inversion Using Stochastic Differential Equations." Geophysical inversions often require computationally expensive algorithms to find even one solution, let alone propagating uncertainties through to the solution domain. The primary purpose of this project was to find more computationally efficient means to approximate solution uncertainty in geophysical inversions. We found multiple computationally efficient methods of propagating Earth model uncertainty into uncertainties in solutions of full waveform seismic moment tensor inversions. However, the optimum method of approximating the uncertainty in these seismic source solutions was to use the Karhunen-Love theorem with data misfit residuals. This method was orders of magnitude more computationally efficient than traditional Monte Carlo methods and yielded estimates of uncertainty that closely approximated those of Monte Carlo. We will summarize the various methods we evaluated for estimating uncertainty in seismic source inversions as well as work toward this goal in the realm of 3-D seismic tomographic inversion uncertainty.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integrating deep neural networks with full-waveform inversion: Reparameterization, regularization, and uncertainty quantification

Full-waveform inversion (FWI) is an accurate imaging approach for modeling the velocity structure by minimizing the misfit between recorded and predicted seismic waveforms. However, the strong nonlinearity of FWI resulting from fitting oscillatory waveforms can trap the optimization in local minima. We have adopted a neural-network-based full-waveform inversion (NNFWI) method that integrates deep neural networks with FWI by representing the velocity model with a generative neural network. Neural networks can naturally introduce spatial correlations as regularization to the generated velocity model, which suppresses noise in the gradients and mitigates local minima. Furthermore, the velocity model generated by neural networks is input to the same partial differential equation (PDE) solvers used in conventional FWI. The gradients of the neural networks and PDEs are calculated using automatic differentiation, which back propagates gradients through the acoustic PDEs and neural network layers to update the weights of the generative neural network. Experiments on 1D velocity models, the Marmousi model, and the 2004 BP model determine that NNFWI can mitigate local minima, especially for imaging high-contrast features such as salt bodies, and it significantly improves the inversion in the presence of noise. Adding dropout layers to the neural network model also allows analyzing the uncertainty of the inversion results through Monte Carlo dropout. NNFWI opens a new pathway to combine deep learning and FWI for exploiting the characteristics of deep neural networks and the high accuracy of PDE solvers. Because NNFWI does not require extra training data and optimization loops, it provides an attractive and straightforward alternative to conventional FWI.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Convergence of Probability Densities Using Approximate Models for Forward and Inverse Problems in Uncertainty Quantification

Here, we analyze the convergence of probability density functions utilizing approximate models for both forward and inverse problems. We consider the standard forward uncertainty quantification problem where an assumed probability density on parameters is propagated through the approximate model to produce a probability density, often called a push-forward probability density, on a set of quantities of interest (QoI). The inverse problem considered in this paper seeks to update an initial probability density assumed on model input parameters such that the subsequent push-forward of this updated density through the parameter-to-QoI map matches a given probability density on the QoI. We prove that the densities obtained from solving the forward and inverse problems, using approximate models, converge to the true densities as the approximate models converge to the true models. Numerical results are presented to demonstrate convergence rates of densities for sparse grid approximations of parameter-to-QoI maps and standard spatial and temporal discretizations of PDEs and ODEs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Consistency Analysis for Massively Inconsistent Datasets in Bound-to-Bound Data Collaboration

Bound-to-Bound Data Collaboration (B2BDC) provides a natural framework for addressing both forward and inverse uncertainty quantification problems. In this approach, QOI (quantity of interest) models are constrained by related experimental observations with interval uncertainty. A collection of such models and observations is termed a dataset and carves out a feasible region in the parameter space. If a dataset has a nonempty feasible set, it is said to be consistent. In real-world applications, it is often the case that collections of models and observations are inconsistent. Revealing the source of this inconsistency, i.e., identifying which models and/or observations are problematic, is essential before a dataset can be used for prediction. To address this issue, we introduce a constraint relaxation-based approach, entitled the vector consistency measure, for investigating datasets with numerous sources of inconsistency. Here, the benefits of this vector consistency measure over a previous method of consistency analysis is demonstrated in two realistic gas combustion examples.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Preliminary Results on Bayesian Inverse UQ for OECD/NEA WPNCS Subgroup 14 Benchmark Exercise for Error Recovery and Experimental Coverage

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Working Party on Nucelar Criticality Safety (WPNCS) has proposed a benchmark exercise representative of neutronic behavior in criticality experiments. Here, the goal is to develop confidence in data assimilation techniques used to adjust nuclear data. Participants are given synthetic experimental models with associated measured data and asked to estimate the model parameters given the model and measurements as well as provide predictions for separate application models. In this work, we performed data assimilation using Bayesian inverse Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) with machine learning surrogate models to produce posterior parameter distributions for the requested parameters and posterior predictive distributions for the requested responses. Several experimental models are shown to insufficiently inform the posterior parameter distributions for the applications involved. However, given sufficient experimental data, posterior parameter estimates yielded reduced uncertainty in the response predictions of interest while covering the experimental data.

Bayesian Inference↗
DOE OSTI2025

Emulation of the calculations of final r -process abundance patterns with a neural network

This work explores the construction of a fast emulator for the calculation of the final pattern of nucleosynthesis in the rapid neutron capture process (the r-process). An emulator is built using a feed-forward artificial neural network (ANN). We train the ANN with nuclear data and relative abundance patterns. We take as input the β-decay half-lives and the one-neutron separation energy of the nuclei in the rare-earth region. The output is the final isotopic abundance pattern. In this work, we focus on the nuclear data and abundance patterns in the rare-earth region to reduce the dimension of the input and output space. We show that the ANN can capture the effect of the changes in the nuclear physics inputs on the final r-process abundance pattern in the adopted astrophysical conditions. We employ the deep ensemble method to quantify the prediction uncertainty of the neural network emulator. The emulator achieves a speed-up by a factor of about 20 000 in obtaining a final abundance pattern in the rare-earth region. The emulator may be utilized in statistical analyses such as uncertainty quantification, inverse problems, and sensitivity analysis.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

High-Dimensional Spectral Sampling

A wide variety of applications in science and engineering depend on effectively and efficiently exploring high- dimensional parameter spaces. Common examples are uncertainty quantification, inverse problems, or various optimization approaches. In such applications, the first step is to create an initial uniform, random sampling of the space to create a baseline of knowledge. The simulations evaluated at these samples are then used for subsequent processing. In its most generic form, the goal of sampling is to produce the maximal amount of information with the minimal number of samples. However, despite being the first step and thus influencing the performance of the entire workflow, the quality of the initial sample designs is rarely analyzed or optimized. This project develops a new spectral sampling theory for analyzing and creating experiment designs in high-dimensional spaces. Further, new algorithms for estimating sample properties and sample synthesis are designed. Finally, applications of the proposed spectral sampling tools in surrogate modeling, scientific machine learning and image analysis are presented.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Nuclear Data Adjustment for Nonlinear Applications in the OECD/NEA WPNCS SG14 Benchmark -- A Bayesian Inverse UQ-based Approach for Data Assimilation

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Working Party on Nuclear Criticality Safety (WPNCS) proposed a benchmark exercise to assess the performance of current nuclear data adjustment techniques applied to nonlinear applications and experiments with low correlation to applications. This work introduces Bayesian Inverse Uncertainty Quantification (IUQ) as a method for nuclear data adjustments in this benchmark, and compares IUQ to the more traditional methods of Generalized Linear Least Squares (GLLS) and Monte Carlo Bayes (MOCABA). Posterior predictions from IUQ showed agreement with GLLS and MOCABA for linear applications. When comparing GLLS, MOCABA, and IUQ posterior predictions to computed model responses using adjusted parameters, we observe that GLLS predictions fail to replicate computed response distributions for nonlinear applications, while MOCABA shows near agreement, and IUQ uses computed model responses directly. We also discuss observations on why experiments with low correlation to applications can be informative to nuclear data adjustments and identify some properties useful in selecting experiments for inclusion in nuclear data adjustment. Performance in this benchmark indicates potential for Bayesian IUQ in nuclear data adjustments.

FOS: Computer and information sciences↗
NASA NTRS2015

Probabilistic Fatigue Damage Prognosis Using a Surrogate Model Trained Via 3D Finite Element Analysis

Utilizing inverse uncertainty quantification techniques, structural health monitoring can be integrated with damage progression models to form probabilistic predictions of a structure's remaining useful life. However, damage evolution in realistic structures is physically complex. Accurately representing this behavior requires high-fidelity models which are typically computationally prohibitive. In the present work, a high-fidelity finite element model is represented by a surrogate model, reducing computation times. The new approach is used with damage diagnosis data to form a probabilistic prediction of remaining useful life for a test specimen under mixed-mode conditions.

Leser, Patrick E.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty Quantification in GADRAS Inverse Modeling

The Gamma Detector Response and Analysis Software (GADRAS) package includes an inverse modeling tool that is helpful in identifying characteristics of unknown radioactive materials. Traditionally, uncertainties in this analysis were derived solely from measurement data quality and the fit of synthetic spectra. This paper aims to rigorously quantify additional sources of uncertainty, focusing on uncertainties arising from measurements being analyzed, Detector Response Function (DRF) characterization, and DRF extrapolation. Applying these findings to the BeRPBall benchmark data set, we demonstrated the impact of these uncertainties on plutonium and polyethylene estimates. The results underscore the importance of incorporating diverse uncertainty sources to enhance the accuracy and reliability of GADRAS’s inverse modeling capabilities.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Pragmatic Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation in Inverse Estimation of Structural Dynamics Parameters given Material Property Uncertainties and Limited Sensor Data

In this report we demonstrate some relatively simple and inexpensive methods to effectively account for various sources of epistemic lack-of-knowledge type uncertainty in inverse problems. The demonstration problem involves inverse estimation of six parameters of a bolted joint that attaches a kettlebell shaped object to a thick plate. The parameters are efficiently inverted in a modal-based model calibration using gradient-based optimization. Two material properties of the kettlebell are treated as uncertain to within given epistemic uncertainty bounds. We apply and test interval and sparse-sample probabilistic approaches to account for uncertainty in the estimated parameters (and various scalar functionals of the parameters as generic quantities of interest, QOIs) due to uncertainties in the material properties. We also investigate the error effects of limited numbers of vibration sensors (accelerometers) on the kettlebell and plate, and therefore abbreviated excitation/response information in the parameter inversions. We propose and demonstrate a Leave-K-Sensors-Out “cross-prediction” UQ approach to estimate related uncertainties on the parameters and QOI functionals. We indicate how uncertainties from material properties and limited sensors are treated in a combined manner. The economical combined UQ approach involves just three to five samples (i.e. three to five inverse simulations), with no added complication or error/uncertainty from use of surrogate models for affordability. Finally, we describe a related economical UQ approach for handling potential parameter solution non-uniqueness and numerical optimization related precision uncertainties in the estimated parameter values. Indicated further research is identified.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2017

Validation and uncertainty quantification of detector response functions for a $1"×2"$ NaI collimated detector intended for inverse radioisotope source mapping applications

Detector response functions (DRFs) are often used for inverse analysis. We compute the DRF of a sodium iodide (NaI) nuclear material holdup field detector using the code named g03 developed by the Center for Engineering Applications of Radioisotopes (CEAR) at NC State University. Three measurement campaigns were performed in order to validate the DRF’s constructed by g03: on-axis detection of calibration sources, off-axis measurements of a highly enriched uranium (HEU) disk, and on-axis measurements of the HEU disk with steel plates inserted between the source and the detector to provide attenuation. Furthermore, this work quantifies the uncertainty of the Monte Carlo simulations used in and with g03, as well as the uncertainties associated with each semi-empirical model employed in the full DRF representation. Overall, for the calibration source measurements, the response computed by the DRF for the prediction of the full-energy peak region of responses was good, i.e. within two standard deviations of the experimental response. In contrast, the DRF tended to overestimate the Compton continuum by about 45–65% due to inadequate tuning of the electron range multiplier fit variable that empirically represents physics associated with electron transport that is not modeled explicitly in g03. For the HEU disk measurements, computed DRF responses tended to significantly underestimate (more than 20%) the secondary full-energy peaks (any peak of lower energy than the highest-energy peak computed) due to scattering in the detector collimator and aluminum can, which is not included in the g03 model. We ran a sufficiently large number of histories to ensure for all of the Monte Carlo simulations that the statistical uncertainties were lower than their experimental counterpart’s Poisson uncertainties. The uncertainties associated with least-squares fits to the experimental data tended to have parameter relative standard deviations lower than the peak channel relative standard deviation in most cases and good reduced chi-square values. The highest sources of uncertainty were identified as the energy calibration polynomial factor (due to limited source availability and NaI resolution) and the Ba-133 peak fit (only a very weak source was available), which were 20% and 10%, respectively.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗