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NASA NTRS2013

First Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Timing Study

NASA's LSP, GSDO and other programs use the probability of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning occurrence issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) in their daily and weekly lightning probability forecasts. These organizations use this information when planning potentially hazardous outdoor activities, such as working with fuels, or rolling a vehicle to a launch pad, or whenever personnel will work outside and would be at-risk from lightning. These organizations would benefit greatly if the 45 WS could provide more accurate timing of the first CG lightning strike of the day. The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) has made significant improvements in forecasting the probability of lightning for the day, but forecasting the time of the first CG lightning with confidence has remained a challenge. To address this issue, the 45 WS requested the AMU to determine if flow regimes, wind speed categories, or a combination of the two could be used to forecast the timing of the first strike of the day in the Kennedy Space Center (KSC)/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) lightning warning circles. The data was stratified by various sea breeze flow regimes and speed categories in the surface to 5,000-ft layer. The surface to 5,000-ft layer was selected since that is the layer the 45 WS uses to predict the behavior of sea breeze fronts, which are the dominant influence on the occurrence of first lightning in Florida during the warm season. Due to small data sample sizes after stratification, the AMU could not determine a statistical relationship between flow regimes or speed categories and the time of the first CG strike.. As expected, although the amount and timing of lightning activity varies by time of day based on the flow regimes and speed categories, there are extended tails of low lightning activity making it difficult to specify times when the threat of the first lightning flash can be avoided. However, the AMU developed a graphical user interface with input from the 45 WS that allows forecasters to visualize the climatological frequencies of the timing of the first lightning strike. This tool should contribute directly to the 45 WS goal of improving lightning timing capability for its NASA, US Air Force and commercial customers.

statistical analysis↗

DOE OSTI2025

Exploring the Early Lightning Notification of an Electric Field Mill at the Savannah River Site

At the Savannah River Site (SRS), employees receive automated broadcast notification about lightning only after three strikes have already occurred near the site boundary. To increase employee safety, it is preferential to give employees lead time before lightning strikes occur. We compared measurements from an on-site electric field mill to lightning detection data from the National Lightning Detection Network and the Geostationary Lightning Mapper. Using a difference threshold, we determined that the electric field mill provided a lead time greater than 6 minutes for 95% of lightning events from 2009-2020, with an average lead time of 56 minutes. Detection of events were limited to a 7-mile radius around the field mill. We also identified that the field mill threshold generated many false detections not clearly identified. False detections and detections from only precipitation can be reduced by using a second threshold without creating too many missed detections (Type II errors). The two thresholds used together provide the best information about rapidly changing electric fields and aid in advanced detection necessary to improve the lightning warning system used at SRS.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1988

Lightning threat extent of a small thunderstorm

The concern for safety of the personnel at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) has caused NASA to promulgate strict safety procedures requiring either termination or substantial curtailment when ground lightning threat is believed to exist within 9.3 km of a covered operation. In cases where the threat is overestimated, in either space or time, an opportunity cost is accrued. This paper describes a small thunderstorm initiated over the KSC by terrain effects, that serves to exemplify the impact such an event may have on ground operations at the Center. Data from the Air Force Lightning Location and Protection System, the AF/NASA Launch Pad Lightning Warning System field mill network, radar, and satellite imagery are used to describe the thunderstorm and to discuss its impact.

Nicholson, James R.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Lightning instrumentation for warning and measurement

A presentation of instrumentation techniques used at Kennedy Space Center for assessing the hazards of lightning, measure lightning currents, induced voltage effects and assess the probability of lightning strikes to launch structures. The electric field and sferics are measured to determine the lightning hazard from the clouds. Measurements are made on launch structures to determine the magnitude of lightning currents and the induced voltages. Photographs are taken to ascertain the location of lightning strikes. Data is analyzed and presented on operations personnel and the Weather Office for assessment of impact on launch critical electromechanical systems and industrial operations.

Wojtasinski, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Flash Optical Energy from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite -16 (GOES-16) Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) is evaluated for many months during the Post Launch Product Test (PLPT) phase in order to ensure that optimal products are available for both the operational forecasting and broader scientific research communities. The emphasis of the PLPT phase is to validate the GLM performance (i.e., lightning flash detection efficiency, geolocation and time-stamp accuracy) using an extensive network of independent ground-based, in-situ, and space-based reference lightning detection systems. However, another essential aspect of the PLPT phase is to obtain benchmarks of the GLM lightning optical amplitude, so that any long-term degradation in the nadir-staring GLM camera system can be realized and quantitatively assessed. This is accomplished in a straight-forward manner by collecting a very large sample of lightning flashes across many geographical regions in the GLM field-of-view so that statistically meaningful benchmarks of lightning optical amplitude (i.e., optical energy in units of femto-joules per flash) are obtained. The benchmarking is particularly important to follow-on studies that will attempt to incorporate the flash optical energy product into new derived products (e.g., energy-weighted lightning "jump" warning algorithms, and lightning nitrogen oxides production estimates).

Lightning↗

DOE OSTI2022

Lightning strike prediction at the Savannah River Site

At the Savannah River Site, employees receive warnings about lightning only after three strikes have already occurred near the site. In order to increase employee safety, it is preferential to warn employees of a lightning threat much sooner. We used data from an on-site Electric Field Mill to measure values of the atmospheric electric charge. We also used lightning detection data from the National Lightning Detection Network and the Geostationary Lightning Mapper. By comparing the data of each, we can determine how long before or after a lightning strike did the Electric Field Mill first measure within our lightning detection threshold. If the detection threshold occurs before the strike does, this provides a lead time for knowing about lightning risks before they happen. Our findings conclude that 95% of lightning strikes have a lead time in the electric field where we can predict the lightning before it occurs and warn employees of the potential lightning threat. However, our lightning detection threshold can occur even without lightning or precipitation. Finding how these false lightning alarms affect our data is necessary to improving the lightning warning system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2013

Integration of the Total Lightning Jump Algorithm into Current Operational Warning Environment Conceptual Models

The presence and rates of total lightning are both correlated to and physically dependent upon storm updraft strength, mixed phase precipitation volume and the size of the charging zone. The updraft modulates the ingredients necessary for electrification within a thunderstorm, while the updraft also plays a critical role in the development of severe and hazardous weather. Therefore utilizing this relationship, the monitoring of lightning rates and jumps provides an additional piece of information on the evolution of a thunderstorm, more often than not, at higher temporal resolution than current operational radar systems. This correlation is the basis for the total lightning jump algorithm that has been developed in recent years. In order to become a viable option for operational forecasters to incorporate into their severe storm monitoring process, the total lightning jump must be placed into the framework of several severe storm conceptual models (e.g., radar evolution, storm morphology) which forecasters have built through training and experience. Thus, one of the goals of this study is to examine and relate the lightning jump concept to often used radar parameters (e.g., dBZ vertical structure, VIL, MESH, MESO/shear) in the warning environment. Tying lightning trends and lightning jump occurrences to these radar based parameters will provide forecasters with an additional tool that they can use to build an accurate realtime depiction as to what is going on in a given environment. Furthermore, relating the lightning jump concept to these parameters could also increase confidence in a warning decision they have already made, help tip the scales on whether or not to warn on a given storm, or to draw the forecaster s attention to a particular storm that is rapidly developing. Furthermore the lightning information will add vital storm scale information in regions that are not well covered by radar, or when radar failures occur. The physical basis for the lightning jump algorithm in relation to severe storm dynamics and microphysics is a key component that must be further explored. Many radar studies have examined flash rates and their relation to updraft strength, updraft volume, precipitation -sized ice mass, etc.; however, very few have related the concept of the lightning jump and manifestation of severe weather to storm dynamics and microphysics using multi -Doppler and polarimetric radar techniques. Therefore, the second half of this study will combine the lightning jump algorithm and these radar techniques in order to place the lightning jump concept into a physical and dynamical framework. This analysis includes examining such parameters as mixed phase precipitation volume, charging zone, updraft strength and updraft volume. Such a study should provide increased understanding of and confidence in the strengths and limitations of the lightning jump algorithm in the storm warning process.

Schultz, Christopher J.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Lightning danger and advanced warning times obtainable from field mills

The rate of charge moment generation derived from Maxwell current densities at the ground is compared with the rate of charge moment removal by lightning for the initial stages of a small thunderstorm cell. It is shown that the current moment in the cell increased with time at a rate of 4.5 (A m/s) during the first seven minutes following detection of electrical activity on the ground. At the time of the first lightning flash which neutralized 0.48 (kC m) a charge moment of over 8 (kC m) had been separated. Theoretical and practical implications of these measurements are discussed.

Nisbet, John S.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Preliminary Design of a Lightning Optical Camera and ThundEr (LOCATE) Sensor

The preliminary design of an optical/acoustical instrument is described for making highly accurate real-time determinations of the location of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning. The instrument, named the Lightning Optical Camera And ThundEr (LOCATE) sensor, will also image the clear and cloud-obscured lightning channel produced from CGs and cloud flashes, and will record the transient optical waveforms produced from these discharges. The LOCATE sensor will consist of a full (360 degrees) field-of-view optical camera for obtaining CG channel image and azimuth, a sensitive thunder microphone for obtaining CG range, and a fast photodiode system for time-resolving the lightning optical waveform. The optical waveform data will be used to discriminate CGs from cloud flashes. Together, the optical azimuth and thunder range is used to locate CGs and it is anticipated that a network of LOCATE sensors would determine CG source location to well within 100 meters. All of this would be accomplished for a relatively inexpensive cost compared to present RF lightning location technologies, but of course the range detection is limited and will be quantified in the future. The LOCATE sensor technology would have practical applications for electric power utility companies, government (e.g. NASA Kennedy Space Center lightning safety and warning), golf resort lightning safety, telecommunications, and other industries.

Phanord, Dieudonne D.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Electro-Optic Lightning Detector

Electric field measurements are fundamental to the study of thunderstorm electrification, thundercloud charge structure, and the determination of the locations and magnitudes of charges deposited by lightning. Continuous field observations can also be used to warn of impending electrical hazards. For example, the USAF Eastern Range (ER) and NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) in Florida currently operate a ground-based network of electric field mill sensors to warn against lightning hazards to space vehicle operations/launches. The sensors provide continuous recordings of the ambient field. Others investigators have employed flat-plate electric field antennas to detect changes In the ambient field due to lightning. In each approach, electronic circuitry is used to directly detect and amplify the effects of the ambient field on an exposed metal conductor (antenna plate); in the case of continuous field recordings, the antenna plate is alternately shielded and unshielded by a grounded conductor. In this work effort, an alternate optical method for detecting lightning-caused electric field changes is Introduced. The primary component in the detector is an anisotropic electro-optic crystal of potassium di-hydrogen phosphate (chemically written as KH2PO4 (KDP)). When a voltage Is placed across the electro-optic crystal, the refractive Indices of the crystal change. This change alters the polarization state of a laser light beam that is passed down the crystal optic axis. With suitable application of vertical and horizontal polarizers, a light transmission measurement is related to the applied crystal voltage (which in turn Is related to the lightning caused electric field change). During the past two years, all critical optical components were procured, assembled, and aligned. An optical housing, calibration set-up, and data acquisition system was integrated for breadboard testing. The sensor was deployed at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in the summer of 1998 to collect storm data. Because solid-state technology is used, future designs of the sensor will be significantly scaled down In physical dimension and weight compared to the present optical breadboard prototype. The use of fiber optics would also provide significant practical improvements.

Koshak, William J.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Integration of the Total Lightning Jump Algorithm into Current Operational Warning Environment Conceptual Models

The purpose of the total lightning jump algorithm (LJA) is to provide forecasters with an additional tool to identify potentially hazardous thunderstorms, yielding increased confidence in decisions within the operational warning environment. The LJA was first developed to objectively indentify rapid increases in total lightning (also termed "lightning jumps") that occur prior to the observance of severe and hazardous weather (Williams et al. 1999, Schultz et al. 2009, Gatlin and Goodman 2010, Schultz et al. 2011). However, a physical and framework leading up to and through the time of a lightning jump is still lacking within the literature. Many studies infer that there is a large increase in the updraft prior to or during the jump, but are not specific on what properties of the updraft are indeed increasing (e.g., maximum updraft speed vs volume or both) likely because these properties were not specifically observed. Therefore, the purpose of this work is to physically associate lightning jump occurrence to polarimetric and multi-Doppler radar measured thunderstorm intensity metrics and severe weather occurrence, thus providing a conceptual model that can be used to adapt the LJA to current operations.

Schultz, C. J.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Integration of the Total Lightning Jump Algorithm into Current Operational Warning Environment Conceptual Models

The presence and rates of total lightning are both correlated to and physically dependent upon storm updraft strength, mixed phase precipitation volume and the size of the charging zone. The updraft modulates the ingredients necessary for electrification within a thunderstorm, while the updraft also plays a critical role in the development of severe and hazardous weather. Therefore utilizing this relationship, the monitoring of lightning rates and jumps provides an additional piece of information on the evolution of a thunderstorm, more often than not, at higher temporal resolution than current operational radar systems. This correlation is the basis for the total lightning jump algorithm that has been developed in recent years. Currently, the lightning jump algorithm is being tested in two separate but important efforts. Schultz et al. (2014; AMS 10th Satellite Symposium) is exploring the transition of the algorithm from its research based formulation to a fully objective algorithm that includes storm tracking, Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) Proxy data and the lightning jump algorithm. Chronis et al. (2014; this conference) provides context for the transition to current operational forecasting using lightning mapping array based products. However, what remains is an end to end physical and dynamical basis for relating lightning rates to severe storm manifestation, so the forecaster has a reason beyond simple correlation to utilize the lightning jump algorithm within their severe storm conceptual models. Therefore, the physical basis for the lightning jump algorithm in relation to severe storm dynamics and microphysics is a key component that must be further explored. Many radar studies have examined flash rates and their relation to updraft strength, updraft volume, precipitation‐sized ice mass, etc.; however, relation specifically to lightning jumps is fragmented within the literature. Thus the goal of this study is to use multiple Doppler techniques to resolve the physical and dynamical storm characteristics specifically around the time of the lightning jump. This information will help forecasters anticipate lightning jump occurrence, or even be of use to determine future characteristics of a given storm (e.g., development of a mesocyclone, downdraft, or hail signature on radar), providing additional lead time/confidence in the severe storm warning paradigm.

Shultz, Christopher J.↗

NASA NTRS1994

A Personal Storm Warning Service

Although lightning detection systems operated by government agencies, utilities and other businesses provide storm warnings, this information often does not reach the public until some time after the observations have been made. A low-cost personal lightning detector offers a significant safety advantage to private flyers, boaters, golfers and others. Developed by Airborne Research Associates, the detectors originated in Space Shuttle tests of an optical lightning detection technique. The commercial device is pointed toward a cloud to detect invisible intracloud lightning by sensing subtle changes in light presence. The majority of the sales have been to golf courses. Additional products and more advanced applications are in progress.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1998

Development of Algorithms and Error Analyses for the Short Baseline Lightning Detection and Ranging System

NASA, at the John F. Kennedy Space Center (KSC), developed and operates a unique high-precision lightning location system to provide lightning-related weather warnings. These warnings are used to stop lightning- sensitive operations such as space vehicle launches and ground operations where equipment and personnel are at risk. The data is provided to the Range Weather Operations (45th Weather Squadron, U.S. Air Force) where it is used with other meteorological data to issue weather advisories and warnings for Cape Canaveral Air Station and KSC operations. This system, called Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR), provides users with a graphical display in three dimensions of 66 megahertz radio frequency events generated by lightning processes. The locations of these events provide a sound basis for the prediction of lightning hazards. This document provides the basis for the design approach and data analysis for a system of radio frequency receivers to provide azimuth and elevation data for lightning pulses detected simultaneously by the LDAR system. The intent is for this direction-finding system to correct and augment the data provided by LDAR and, thereby, increase the rate of valid data and to correct or discard any invalid data. This document develops the necessary equations and algorithms, identifies sources of systematic errors and means to correct them, and analyzes the algorithms for random error. This data analysis approach is not found in the existing literature and was developed to facilitate the operation of this Short Baseline LDAR (SBLDAR). These algorithms may also be useful for other direction-finding systems using radio pulses or ultrasonic pulse data.

Starr, Stanley O.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Lightning studies using LDAR and LLP data

This study intercompared lightning data from LDAR and LLP systems in order to learn more about the spatial relationships between thunderstorm electrical discharges aloft and lightning strikes to the surface. The ultimate goal of the study is to provide information that can be used to improve the process of real-time detection and warning of lightning by weather forecasters who issue lightning advisories. The Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR) System provides data on electrical discharges from thunderstorms that includes cloud-ground flashes as well as lightning aloft (within cloud, cloud-to-cloud, and sometimes emanating from cloud to clear air outside or above cloud). The Lightning Location and Protection (LLP) system detects primarily ground strikes from lightning. Thunderstorms typically produce LDAR signals aloft prior to the first ground strike, so that knowledge of preferred positions of ground strikes relative to the LDAR data pattern from a thunderstorm could allow advance estimates of enhanced ground strike threat. Studies described in the report examine the position of LLP-detected ground strikes relative to the LDAR data pattern from the thunderstorms. The report also describes other potential approaches to the use of LDAR data in the detection and forecasting of lightning ground strikes.

Forbes, Gregory S.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Developing Lightning Prediction Tools for the CCAFS Dual-Polarimetric Radar

NASA Marshall Space Flight Center and the University of Alabama Huntsville are collaborating with the 45th Weather Squadron (45WS) to develop improved lightning prediction capabilities for the new C-band dual-polarimetric weather radar being acquired for use by 45WS and launch weather forecasters at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). In particular, these algorithms will focus on lightning onset, cessation and combined lightning-radar applications for convective winds assessment. Research using radar reflectivity (Z) data for prediction of lightning onset has been extensively discussed in the literature and subsequently applied by launch weather forecasters as it pertains to lightning nowcasting. Currently the forecasters apply a relatively straight forward but effective temperature-Z threshold algorithm for assessing the likelihood of lightning onset in a given storm. In addition, a layered VIL above the freezing level product is used as automated guidance for the onset of lightning. Only limited research and field work has been conducted on lightning cessation using Z and vertically-integrated Z for determining cessation. Though not used operationally vertically-integrated Z (basis for VIL) has recently shown promise as a tool for use in nowcasting lightning cessation. The work discussed herein leverages and expands upon these and similar reflectivity-threshold approaches via the application/addition of over two decades of polarimetric radar research focused on distinct multi-parameter radar signatures of ice/mixed-phase initiation and ice-crystal orientation in highly electrified convective clouds. Specifically, our approach is based on numerous previous studies that have observed repeatable patterns in the behavior of the vertical hydrometeor column as it relates to the temporal evolution of differential reflectivity and depolarization (manifested in either LDR or p(sub hv)), development of in-situ mixed and ice phase microphysics, electric fields, and ensuing lightning in the sub-tropical/tropical convection typical of the southeastern U.S., Maritime Continent, and southwestern Amazon. The polarimetric signatures detected in this setting provide a basis for automated 3-D detection of hydrometeor types in fuzzy logic hydrometeor identification algorithms (HID). Our working hypothesis is that improvement in lightning onset warning lead time and specificity for a given storm, relative to application of a Z-threshold algorithm, should arise as a consequence of the ability of dual-polarimetric radar to unambiguously detect and identify (through HID algorithms) the updraft elevation of rain-water cores above the freezing level and subsequent onset of drop freezing, riming, and robust mixed phase processes leading to significant charge separation and lightning. This type of algorithm, though dependent on the quality of the polarimetric data should be less susceptible to variable Z-calibration that can impact a given Z-threshold approach. To facilitate development of the algorithm while the 45WS dual-pol radar is in its current test stages and to evaluate the impact of polarimetric data quality (e.g., modified scan parameters and sampling) on the ensuing algorithms, we are using the ARMOR C-band dual-pol radar in Huntsville combined with N. Alabama LMA data and ARMOR HID algorithms [NCAR algorithm modified for application at C-band] in a testbed fashion. For lightning cessation we are revisiting the application of differential propagation phase variables for the monitoring of ice crystal alignment driven by in-cloud electric fields combined with metrics of ice water path (i.e., vertically integrated reflectivity). Importantly it should be noted that this approach is still very much a research topic and as such, we will explore operational applications that involve radar frequencies other than C-Band by using the UAH MAX X-band dual-pol radar in slow staring modes.

Petersen, W. A.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Integration of the Total Lightning Jump Algorithm into Current Operational Warning Environment Conceptual Models

Key points that this analysis will begin to address are: 1)What physically is going on in the cloud when there is a jump in lightning? - Updraft variations, ice fluxes. 2)How do these processes fit in with severe storm conceptual models? 3)What would this information provide an end user (i.e., the forecaster)? - Relate LJA to radar observations, like changes in reflectivity, MESH, VIL, etc. based multi-Doppler derived physical relationships 4) How do we best transistionthis algorithm into the warning decision process. The known relationship between lightning updraft strength/volume and precipitation ice mass production can be extended to the concept of the lightning jump. Examination of the first lightning jump times from 329 storms in Schultz et al. shows an increase in the mean reflectivity profile and mixed phase echo volume during the 10 minutes prior to the lightning jump. Limited dual-Doppler results show that the largest lightning jumps are well correlated in time with increases in updraft strength/volume and precipitation ice mass production; however, the smaller magnitude lightning jumps appear to have more subtle relationships to updraft and ice mass characteristics.

Schultz, Christopher J.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Integration of the Total Lightning Jump Algorithm into Current Operational Warning Environment Conceptual Models

Key points this analysis will address: 1) What physically is going on in the cloud when there is a jump in lightning? -- Updraft variations, Ice fluxes 2) How do these processes fit in with severe storm conceptual models? 3) What would this information provide an end user? --Relate LJA to radar observations, like changes in reflectivity, MESH, VIL, etc. based multi -Doppler derived physical relationships

Schultz, Chris↗