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NASA NTRS1984

Close encounters and collisions of comets with the earth

A computer search for earth-approaching comets among those listed in Marsden's (1983) updated orbit catalog has identified 36 cases at which minimum separation distance was less than 2500 earth radii. A strong representation of short period comets in the sample is noted, and the constant rate of the close approaching comets in the last 300 years is interpreted to suggest the lack of long-period comets intrinsically fainter than an absolute magnitude of about 11. A comet-earth collision rate derived from the statistics of these close encounters implies an average period of 33-64 million years between any two events. This rate is comparable with the frequency of geologically recent global catastrophes which appear to be associated with extraterrestrial object impacts, such as the Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction 65 million years ago and the late Eocene event 34 million years ago.

Sekanina, Z.↗
NASA NTRS1991

A sensitive upper limit on the methane abundance in Comet Levy (1990c)

Results are presented on a ground-based search for fluorescent emission from CH4 at 3.3 microns in a newly discovered long-period comet, Comet Levy (1990c). It was found that the upper limit to the CH4 abundance in Comet Levy is similar to the Comet Halley CH4 abundance estimated from lower resolution IR spectra by Kawara et al. (1988). The Comet Levy CH4 abundance is significantly lower than the abundance derived by Larson et al. (1989) from a possible detection of CH4 in Comet Wilson.

Brooke, T. Y.↗
NASA NTRS1984

The ultraviolet spectrum of periodic Comet Encke (1980 XI)

A comparison of the ultraviolet spectrum of periodic Comet Encke (1980 XI), recorded by the IUE between October 24, and November 5, 1980 with similar spectra, of short- and long-period comets, shows the gaseous composition of P/Encke to be nearly identical to that of the other comets observed by the IUE. If P/Encke is indeed the remains of a once-giant comet, this similarity implies a homogeneous radial structure for the cometary ice nucleus. The OH brightness distribution shows a spatial variation similar to the visible fan-shaped image of the comet, suggestive of a nonuniform distribution of volatile ices on the surface of the nucleus. The total derived water production rate appears to be a factor of 5 higher than that derived from HI Lyman-alpha observations made during the 1970 apparition, and shows a variation with heliocentric distance (r) as r to the -3.3 power over the range 0.81 to 1.02 AU.

Feldman, P. D.↗
NASA NTRS1988

The cometary and asteroidal impactor flux at the earth

The cratering records on the Earth and the lunar maria provide upper limits on the total impactor flux at the Earth's orbit over the past 600 Myr and the past 3.3 Gyr, respectively. These limits can be compared with estimates of the expected cratering rate from observed comets and asteroids in Earth-crossing orbits, corrected for observational selection effects and incompleteness, and including expected temporal variations in the impactor flux. Both estimates can also be used to calculate the probability of large impacts which may result in biological extinction events on the Earth. The estimated cratering rate on the Earth for craters greater than 10 km-diameter, based on counted craters on dated surfaces is 2.2 + or - 1.1 x 10 to the minus 14th power km(-2) yr(-1) (Shoemaker et al., 1979). Using a revised mass distribution for cometary nuclei based on the results of the spacecraft flybys of Comet Halley in 1986, and other refinements in the estimate of the cometary flux in the terrestrial planets zone, it is now estimated that long-period comets account for 11 percent of the cratering on the Earth (scaled to the estimate above), and short-period comets account for 4 pct (Weissman, 1987). However, the greatest contribution is from large but infrequent, random cometary showers, accounting for 22 pct of the terrestrial cratering.

Weissman, Paul R.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Dynamics of long period comets

The appearance of Halley's Comet in 1985 to 1986 and the related emphasis on research on physical models of cometary nuclei, led to a more moderate pace for the dynamical studies of the Oort cloud and the motion of long-period comets this year. Specific areas studied included the dynamical evolution of cometary showers as a result of stars passages through the inner Oort cloud and the possible relationship to observed stepwise mass extinctions at geological boundaries, revised estimates for the total mass of comets in the Oort cloud as a result of lessons learned from the spacecraft encounters with Halley's Comet, and study of the possible dynamical sources for the short-period comets in the solar system as part of a wider study of physical processing of cometary nuclei prior to their becoming visible comets. The work on cometary showers used a Monte Carlo simulation of the evolution of cometary orbits under a combination of planetary, nongravitational, and stellar perturbations, and with physical removal by disruption, sublimation of all volatiles, and collision.

Weissman, Paul R.↗
NASA NTRS1983

The mass of the Oort cloud

The total mass of comets in the Oort cloud is calculated. The distribution of cometary masses is found based on the observed distribution of cometary magnitudes corrected for observational selection effects by Everhart (1967), and a derived relationship between brightness and nucleus mass. A cloud population of 1.4 trillion comets brighter than an absolute magnitude of 11 as found by Weissman (1982) is used. The estimated total mass is 1.9 earth masses. The probable error in the estimate is about one order of magnitude. Most of the mass of the Oort cloud is concentrated in the size range of the observed long-period comets. The mass estimate is consistent with either cometary formation among the outer planets, or in satellite fragments of the primordial solar nebula.

Weissman, P. R.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Strongly differentiated material in high-inclination and retrograde orbits

Two definitive spectra of strongly differentiated meteors are discussed. The meteors entered the earth's atmosphere at velocities greater than 40 km/sec from high-inclination and retrograde orbits. Both were magnesium-calcium particles, and their spectra show them to be highly deficient in iron and sodium. The moon and the asteroids have been discussed as sources of such calcium-rich achondrites, but these sources give low or intermediate geocentric velocities. Long-period comets and meteoroids of probable cometary origin are the only objects now known to have orbits similar to the orbits of these two meteors.

Harvey, G. A.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Nongravitational forces on comets

Methods are presented and discussed for determining the effects of nongravitational forces on the orbits of comets. These methods are applied to short-period and long-period comets. Results are briefly described.

Marsden, B. G.↗
NASA NTRS1976

On the detection of a cometary mass distribution

The problem of detecting a possible cometary distribution on the fringes of the solar system is examined. The acceleration of a space probe due to a hypothetical cometary mass distribution with the surface density rising to a maximum and subsequently falling off with increasing distance from the sun is analyzed. The total minimum detectable cometary mass for the Pioneer and Mariner spacecraft is estimated on the basis of this model to be on the order of 1000 earth masses. Precision tracking of deep space probes is less sensitive by three orders of magnitude for the detection of an unseen cometary mass distribution at the fringes of the solar system than are the secular perturbations of long-period comets.

Boss, A. P.↗
NASA NTRS1977

On the early scattering processes of the outer planets

The gradual scattering of small bodies by the Jovian planets in the late stage of their accretion is simulated by Monte Carlo calculation. The effects of collisional interaction of the scattered planetesimals with the inner planets and asteroidal belt are estimated. The total mass influx injected into the terrestrial zones from the outer planetary zone could be appreciable; however, if the damping effects due to the mutual inelastic or catastrophic collisions among the small bodies were significant, the total mass influx would be greatly reduced. The origin of the cometary Oort cloud in relation to these scattering processes is also discussed. The calculation indicates that, in addition to Jupiter, Uranus and Neptune were likely to be the major contributors to the population of long-period comets if they originated from such scattering processes.

Ip, W. H.↗
NASA NTRS1987

The study of the physics of cometary nuclei

The numerical calculations of stability for many possible orbits of the double nucleus for P/Holmes showed that the likelihood of such a precollision history was quite high. A number of investigations were made of hypothetical orbits for particles about the asteroid Amphitrite to test for stability. The purpose was to establish more favorable fly-by orbits close to the asteroid for the Galileo missions en-route to Jupiter, reducing the collisional hazards. A statistical study was made of the orbits of long-period comets with small original semi-major axes recently perturbed from the great Opik-Oort Cloud. The results from the space missions to Halley's comet are partially reported in the two papers in the appendices.

Whipple, Fred L.↗
NASA NTRS1990

The Oort cloud

Although the outermost planet, Pluto, is 6 x 10 to the 9th km from the sun, the sun's gravitational sphere of influence extends much further, out to about 2 x 10 to the 13th km. This space is occupied by the Oort cloud, comprising 10 to the 12th-10 to the 13th cometary nuclei, formed in the primordial solar nebula. Observations and computer modeling have contributed to a detailed understanding of the structure and dynamics of the cloud, which is thought to be the source of the long-period comets and possibly comet showers.

Wessman, Paul R.↗
NASA NTRS1992

About distribution and origin of the peculiar group of sporadic meteors

A particular group of sporadic meteors are picked out from analysis of meteor catalogs derived from results of radar observations in Mogadisho and Kharkov. The semi-major axes are equal or more than 1.73 AU and inclinations of orbits are equal or more than 90 degrees for these meteors. The distributions of radiants, velocities, and elements of orbits were derived. The probable source of meteor bodies of this peculiar group is the long-period comets, in particular, the comets of the Kreutz's group.

Andreev, V. V.↗
NASA NTRS1991

The forest and the trees

Comments on the nature of cometary nuclei, some problems regarding cometary origin, and some correlations among cometary data are presented. Comparisons with an earlier report on cometary nuclei are noted, and most of the earlier advances in concept are substantiated. The mean density of the Halley nucleus may have been underestimated, while the nature of the rotation remains uncertain. The dust/gas ratio apparently needs to be increased by as much as two times, perhaps to unity or higher. CHON grains appear to be important sources of gas. Evidence is presented to support the thesis that aging among long-period comets increases statistically as the periods decrease. Data on the orientation of cometary axes with respect to the Galaxy and the properties of clusters defined by these axes are presented.

Whipple, Fred L.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Long-term orbital evolution of short-period comets found in Project Cosmo-DICE

Orbital evolutions of about 160 short-period (SP) comets are numerically integrated for 4400 years in the framework of a realistic dynamical model. By the round-trip error in closure test, a reliable time space of the integrated orbits is estimated for each comet. Majority of the SP comets with their Tisserand's constant(J) between 2.8 and 3.1 are found to evolve within the past 1000-2000 years from the orbits whose perihelia are near the Jovian orbit to the orbits with perihelia of 1-2 AU. This evolution is much more rapid than that expected from Monte Carlo simulations based on symmetric distribution of planetary perturbations, thus suggesting that asymmetry of perturbation distribution play an important role in cometary evolution. Several comets are shown to evolve from the near-Saturn orbits and then to be handed over under the control of Jupiter. We also find that a few comets were captured from long-period orbits (a = 75-125 AU) via only a few close encounters with Jupiter. It is confirmed that the captured SP comets of low-inclination with 2.7 less than J less than 3.1 show more or less strong chaotic behavior. On the other hand, comets with longer orbital period and/or of high inclination reveal slow or quasi-periodic orbital evolution.

Nakamura, Tsuko↗
NASA NTRS1991

A new activity index for comets

An activity index (AI) is derived from observational data to measure the increase of activity in magnitudes for comets when brightest near perihelion as compared to their inactive reflective brightnesses at great solar distances. In all, AI determinations are made for 32 long-period (L-P) comets and for 14 short-period (S-P). The range of values of AI is the order of 3 to 10 magnitudes with a median about 6. An expected strong correlation with perihelion distance, q, was found to vary as approx. q(-2.3). Residuals from a least-square solution, delta AI, were used for comparing comets of different orbital classes, the standard deviation of a single value of delta AI was only plus or minus 1(m).1 for L-P comets and plus or minus 1(m)2 for S-P comets. Among the L-P comets, 19 of Period, P greater than 10(exp 4) yr yielded delta AI greater than or equal to -0(m).27 compared to +0(m).39 for 13 of 10(exp 4) greater than P greater than 10(exp 2) yr. This denies any effect of aging among the L-P comets. The 14 S-P comets yielded (delta AI) less 0(m).3 plus or minus 0(m).3 than the 32 L-P comets. The results suggest a common actively level, nature and probably origin for comets of all orbits, sizes and ages.

Whipple, Fred L.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Effects of solar radiation on the orbits of small particles

A modification of the Robertson (1937) equations of particle motion in the presence of solar radiation is developed which allows for partial reflection of sunlight as a result of rapid and varying particle rotations caused by interaction with the solar wind. The coefficients and forces in earlier forms of the equations are compared with those in the present equations, and secular rates of change of particle orbital elements are determined. Orbital dimensions are calculated in terms of time, probable sizes and densities of meteoric and cometary particles are estimated, and times of infall to the sun are computed for a particle moving in an almost circular orbit and a particle moving in an elliptical orbit of high eccentricity. Changes in orbital elements are also determined for particles from a long-period sun-grazing comet. The results show that the time of infall to the sun from a highly eccentric orbit is substantially shorter than from a circular orbit with a radius equal to the mean distance in the eccentric orbit. The possibility is considered that the free orbital kinetic energy of particles drawn into the sun may be the energy source for the solar corona.

Lyttleton, R. A.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Development of a comet as it pursues its orbit

The properties of cometary dust-swarms in almost parabolic long-period orbits are examined. The effect of passage of the solar system through interstellar gas clouds is shown to be capable of affecting substantially the angular momentum of a comet about the sun, thus accounting for the existence of comets with high values of perihelion distance. The same process would enable cometary particles to adsorb interstellar gases and regenerate their gas content.

Lyttleton, R. A.↗