Exploring equality and sustainability trade-offs of energy transition outcomes in the United States in 2050
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29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
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Results for “Multi-criteria decision analysis”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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A model for selecting the best sustainable airport technology alternatives
Air transport is a continually expanding industry, a fact that has become even more evident with the recovery of the aviation industry post-COVID-19. This expansion amplified energy consumption at airports, which was already significantly high. Airport decision-makers are increasingly focusing on improving sustainability and addressing social, economic, and environmental criteria across airports worldwide. In this article, we propose a decision-making model for identifying a sustainable airport technology solution that minimizes the energy consumption of airport lighting while considering economic, emission, and life-cycle criteria. The proposed model combines data envelopment analysis and multi-criteria decision making techniques. We applied the model to the Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport (DFW) as a case study, considering eight lighting technology solutions, each with five luminous flux alternatives. Our model identified the best lighting technology solution for DFW outdoor and indoor environments based on the following criteria: luminous flux, capital costs, life-cycle costs, energy consumption, and emissions (CO2e, NOx, SO2, and PM2.5). The designed model is customizable to any airport and is applicable to a wide range of airport lighting technologies. In our analysis, Light-Emitting Diode lighting emerged as the most sustainable technology option. It ranked first in most cases due to its balance of high efficacy, long lifespan, low life-cycle cost, low capital cost, and lower emissions across all pollutants.
Tchivwila, Moise B↗
Developing a Power Plant Suitability Model for the Energy Zones Mapping Tool
This report provides an example of designing, developing, and running a power plant suitability model in the Energy Zones Mapping Tool (EZMT), a public, web-based mapping tool with a large spatial database focused on energy infrastructure, energy resources, and related siting factors. The example focuses on natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) power plants, which have several unique and interesting characteristics. NGCC plants typically provide peaking power to the electrical grid. Such plants can be started or stopped relatively quickly and are often used to supplement base load plants (such as nuclear or coal) during times of peak electrical consumption or to counterbalance lulls in variable power generation (such as wind or solar). Due to these and other factors, NGCC plants have been projected to increase in number under energy planning studies such as Hadley et al. The scope of the Hadley et. al. study is the Eastern Interconnection (EI), the electrical transmission grid serving much of the United States and Canada east of the Rocky Mountains. Results in the study are organized according to 22 Multi-region National—North American Electricity and Environment Model (NEEM) regions within the EI. NGCC plants usually have lower water requirements than other thermoelectric power plants they may replace; therefore, they are expected to have an interesting role in reducing the overall water requirements of energy generation.
20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
A multi-criteria land suitability assessment of field allocation decisions for switchgrass
With the goal of evaluating biomass resource availability in certain regions in the United States, the Department of Energy, Department of Agriculture, Environmental Protection Agency, national laboratories, and Forest Service research laboratories, together with academic and industry collaborators, performed a resource analysis study, 2016 Billion-Ton Report: Advancing Domestic Resources for a Thriving Bioeconomy, Volume 1: Economic Availability of Feedstocks, using POLYSYS model to estimate biomass potential. The study provided county- and state-level biomass potential projections, with biomass feedstock production estimates and suitability assessment of lands acreage likely to transition to energy crops. For this analysis, we estimate biomass supply by year 2028, more specifically, lands acreage transition to switchgrass in the Midwest of the United States, across 50 counties in 3 states (Nebraska, Kansas, and Colorado). We propose a multi-criteria site suitability framework, to determine the potential acreage and production for switchgrass, at the field level. Site selection criteria span agronomic and ecosystem services such as previous land cover, crop rotation, soil water holding capacity, crop productivity, field efficiency, topography, soil organic matter, soil leaching propensity, distance to surface water bodies, and soil erosivity. Efficient agricultural field selection for dedicated energy crops field allocation is critical to evaluate biomass resource availability, and it is our position that estimation at the field level would provide a more accurate and useful estimation to support an emerging bioeconomy. Using field suitability scores and county-level assessments, we model land allocation decision for energy crop in the future, estimating the spatial distribution of dynamics of energy crop adoption with priority to fields scoring the highest. Additionally, compared with POLYSYS results from the report mentioned above, our method shows good performance overall, with about 2% and 1.2% of difference in switchgrass acreage allocation and crop production, respectively.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Space Shuttle RTOS Bayesian Network
With shrinking budgets and the requirements to increase reliability and operational life of the existing orbiter fleet, NASA has proposed various upgrades for the Space Shuttle that are consistent with national space policy. The cockpit avionics upgrade (CAU), a high priority item, has been selected as the next major upgrade. The primary functions of cockpit avionics include flight control, guidance and navigation, communication, and orbiter landing support. Secondary functions include the provision of operational services for non-avionics systems such as data handling for the payloads and caution and warning alerts to the crew. Recently, a process to selection the optimal commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) real-time operating system (RTOS) for the CAU was conducted by United Space Alliance (USA) Corporation, which is a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, the prime contractor for space shuttle operations. In order to independently assess the RTOS selection, NASA has used the Bayesian network-based scoring methodology described in this paper. Our two-stage methodology addresses the issue of RTOS acceptability by incorporating functional, performance and non-functional software measures related to reliability, interoperability, certifiability, efficiency, correctness, business, legal, product history, cost and life cycle. The first stage of the methodology involves obtaining scores for the various measures using a Bayesian network. The Bayesian network incorporates the causal relationships between the various and often competing measures of interest while also assisting the inherently complex decision analysis process with its ability to reason under uncertainty. The structure and selection of prior probabilities for the network is extracted from experts in the field of real-time operating systems. Scores for the various measures are computed using Bayesian probability. In the second stage, multi-criteria trade-off analyses are performed between the scores. Using a prioritization of measures from the decision-maker, trade-offs between the scores are used to rank order the available set of RTOS candidates.
Morris, A. Terry↗
A Multi-Criteria Impact Evaluation Methodology Applied to FLEX Strategies in Nuclear Power Plants
As responses to Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident, several advanced, near-term technologies have been or are being introduced to enhance safety of operating nuclear power plants (NPPs) as well as improving their sustainability. Examples include Accident-Tolerant Fuel designs, Diverse and Flexible Coping Strategies (FLEX), and passive cooling system designs. The combinations of these technologies, coupled with enhancements to plant components and systems and improved fuel cycle efficiency, constitute a concept of Enhanced Resilient Plant Systems, which is proposed and being explored by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) under the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis Pathway of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program. To decide if introducing a technology is necessary or worthy, the impacts of this technology on NPPs should be evaluated, preferably in a quantitative manner, and provided to decision makers. This paper summarizes an on-going work conducted by the authors on developing a multi-criteria impact evaluation methodology. This methodology is expected to be applicable to evaluate a variety of technologies, while FLEX strategy is adopted as a case study for this paper.
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
Decommissioning of the V1 Nuclear Power Plant Jaslovske Bohunice - 20270
The paper focuses on introducing the approach and method applied for decommissioning of the V1 nuclear power plant (further the 'V1 NPP') located in Jaslovske Bohunice in the Slovak Republic, to the conference participants. The Paper outlines activities and steps necessary to comply with the requirements contained in the decision of the Slovak government from 1999 regarding the early shutdown of the V1 NPP. The company responsible for the V1 NPP decommissioning is Jadrova a vyradovacia spolocnost, a.s., (further JAVYS) with the State as a sole shareholder. On the basis of the V1 NPP Decommissioning Conceptual Plan, out of four assessed options, JAVYS selected the immediate decommissioning option (the 'IDO') for the V1 NPP. On the basis of multi-criteria analysis, the IDO specified the approach of immediate and continuous dismantling of equipment followed by demolition of buildings and preparation of the site for its further potential use. The IDO also included the summary of technical, environmental, legislative information as well as the determination of assumed costs for decommissioning of the V1 NPP. Prior to commencement of the V1 NPP decommissioning, within the process of termination of operation, activities connected with de-fuelling, monitoring, processing of historical waste and, not to forget, the process of obtaining the license for the V1 NPP decommissioning were executed. JAVYS decided to divide the decommissioning process into two stages. In 2011, JAVYS obtained a license for the first stage of the V1 NPP decommissioning. Within this stage, dismantling of inactive equipment, demolitions of inactive buildings, monitoring of systems and preparatory works for the upcoming stage of decommissioning were implemented. In 2015, in line with the license for the 2. stage of the V1 NPP decommissioning, the activities of decontamination and dismantling of contaminated and active equipment as well as demolitions of remaining buildings began. In this stage radioactive waste (RAW) produced during the decommissioning is to be processed. After decontamination, the material fulfilling the free release criteria is to be released into the environment, the site is to be cleared from the scope of the Atomic Act and released from the surveillance of the national regulators. Future application of certain methods and techniques for decontamination and dismantling in similar environments might bring an added value to the operators. Paper includes a description of best practices for Nuclear Power Plant VVER type reactors decommissioning. Schedule comparison is given to show how the critical path of certain projects is being managed. Application of the International Standard for Decommissioning Costing (ISDC) methodology provides a uniform method which enables comparison of cost estimates to other nuclear facilities under decommissioning. The cost estimate for the V1 NPP decommissioning has been continuously updated based on more advanced and detailed information on the decommissioning activities and projects. Monitoring of progress of the V1 NPP decommissioning is performed via four key-performance indicators. The Earned Value Management (EVM) methodology is used for evaluating time and cost aspect of decommissioning activities while waste conditioning index is calculated by comparing the actually produced waste to planned values of waste for a respective monitored period. Radiological safety index is assessed by comparison of the personnel records on the individual yearly doses received by each respective employee to the boundary value. (authors)
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
A Stochastic Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Algorithm for Dynamic Load Prioritization in Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings
Increasing deployment of advanced sensing, controls, and communication infrastructure enables buildings to provide services to the power grid, leading to the concept of grid-interactive efficient buildings. Since occupant activities and preferences primarily drive the availability and operational flexibility of building devices, there is a critical need to develop occupant-centric approaches that prioritize devices for providing grid services, while maintaining the desired end-use quality of service. In this paper, we present a decision-making framework that facilitates a building owner/operator to effectively prioritize loads for curtailment service under uncertainties, while minimizing any adverse impact on the occupants. The proposed framework uses a stochastic (Markov) model to represent the probabilistic behavior of device usage from power consumption data, and a load prioritization algorithm that dynamically ranks building loads using a stochastic multi-criteria decision-making algorithm. The proposed load prioritization framework is illustrated via numerical simulations in a residential building use-case, including plug-loads, air-conditioners, and plug-in electric vehicle chargers, in the context of load curtailment as a grid service. Suitable metrics are proposed to evaluate the closed-loop performance of the proposed prioritization algorithm under various scenarios and design choices. Scalability of the proposed algorithm is established via computational analysis, while time-series plots are used for intuitive explanation of the ranking choices.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
A multi-criteria CCUS screening evaluation of the Gulf of Mexico, USA
Continued research into reservoir characterization along with offshore carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) transportation and infrastructure assets is needed to facilitate development of safe and successful carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) projects. This paper outlines a multi-criteria evaluation methodology that incorporates disparate sets of quantitative, spatially variable data into a decision-making framework for screening the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) outer continental shelf (OCS) for potentially viable CO 2 storage and enhanced oil recovery (EOR) sites. Criteria categories include favorable geologic characteristics, logistics, and potential risks. Data compiled for 14 criteria from several publicly available geographic information system (GIS) layers was aggregated over 2559 spatially balanced points across the study area using the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL)-developed Cumulative Spatial Impact Layers™ (CSIL) GIS tool. Criteria are weighted by qualitative expert opinion relative to their perceived importance to given scenarios— the output of combined criteria values and weights enables regional CO 2 storage suitability differentiation. The methodology considers both technical and non-technical factors impacting CCUS decision-making. The flexible methodology enables a systematic approach to regional ranking at high spatial resolution over a large study domain. Additionally, the framework enables high-grading of priority sites that warrant further characterization and follow-on analysis. Areas along the Louisiana coast and Mississippi River Delta consistently rank high for all scenarios largely a result of the favorable geology with the potential for stacked storage, as well as the density of existing pipelines and platforms, and proximity to several onshore CO 2 sources. High-graded regions for the CO 2 EOR-related scenarios are typically located further offshore towards the middle and edge of the OCS compared to higher priority regions for the geologic storage scenarios which fall closer to the Louisiana coastline.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Distributed Rules-Based Deconfliction of ADMS Applications - Part 2: Conceptual Implementation
This work introduces a rules-based deconfliction methodology for resolving conflicting device control commands issued by advanced power applications considering a range of technical, economic, environmental, and social objectives. The methodology is designed to serve as one of multiple alternative implementations (along with application cooperation and global optimization) for the numerical component of the Deconfliction Pipeline. Development of the methodology is divided into two parts. The first document previously defined the requirements, context, and methods for decomposing the deconfliction problem using the Laminar Coordination Framework and Variable Grid Structures. The deconfliction problem was decomposed into a distributed optimization problem based on the concept of quasi-static grid segments, which form independent distributed areas for control and coordination. It was recommended that selection of the optimal number of decompositions of the deconfliction problem be made based on a tradeoff analysis between computational speed and global optimality. This second document defines an initial set of technical, economic, and environmental criteria, as well as thirty specific qualitative rules that are used as part of the deconfliction methodology to eliminate non-viable setpoint alternatives. The deconfliction optimization problem is converted into a ranking of individual discrete setpoints, which are scored by the extent to which they satisfy specific decision criteria. The ranking is determined through the concepts of deconfliction exclusivity, priority, and preference. Several multi-criteria decision-making frameworks are examined with the simple multi-attribute rating technique exploiting ranks (SMARTER) recommended as a simple implementation alternative that aligns with the steps of the rules-based deconfliction methodology.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Distributed Rules-Based Deconfliction of ADMS Applications: Part 1: Requirements & Decomposition
This work introduces a rules-based deconfliction methodology for resolving conflicting device control commands issued by advanced power applications considering a range of technical, economic, environmental, and social objectives. The methodology is designed to serve as one of multiple alternative implementations (along with application cooperation and global optimization) for the numerical component of the Deconfliction Pipeline. Development of the methodology is divided into two parts. This first document introduces the requirements, context, and methods for decomposing the deconfliction problem using the Laminar Coordination Framework and Variable Grid Structures. The deconfliction problem is decomposed into a distributed optimization problem based on the concept of quasi-static grid segments, which form independent distributed areas for control and coordination. Selection of the optimal number of decompositions of the deconfliction problem should be made based on a tradeoff analysis between computational speed and global optimality. This second document will define an initial set of technical, economic, and environmental criteria, as well as thirty specific qualitative rules that are used as part of the deconfliction methodology to eliminate non-viable setpoint alternatives. The deconfliction optimization problem is converted into a ranking of individual discrete setpoints, which are scored by the extent to which they satisfy specific decision criteria. The ranking is determined through the concepts of deconfliction exclusivity, priority, and preference. Several multi-criteria decision-making frameworks are examined with the simple multi-attribute rating technique exploiting ranks (SMARTER) recommended as a simple implementation alternative that aligns with the steps of the rules-based deconfliction methodology.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗