NASA’s Quesst Mission –Preparations for Community Response Studies
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Gautam Shah↗
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NASA's Quesst Mission: Overview
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supersonic↗
Global Variability in Sonic Boom Exposure due to Macroscopic Effects
Supersonic flight over land has been prohibited since 1973 due to the loudness of sonic booms. NASA is building the X-59 aircraft as part of its Quesst mission to demonstrate low-loudness shaped sonic booms, or “sonic thumps.” The Quesst mission will gather human perception data via a series of community noise surveys across the USA. The noise dose and perceptual response data will be provided to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and the Federal Aviation Administration for use in determining potential future supersonic aircraft noise certification standards, effectively changing the prohibition from a speed limit to a noise limit. These noise regulations must be globally effective, as long travel distances see the largest benefit to supersonic flight. The state of the atmosphere through which a sonic boom travels affects the size of the region exposed to sound, the “carpet width” (CW), as well as the loudness. The focus of this dissertation is to understand and quantify the expected loudness and CW of sonic booms due to the macroscopic atmospheric effects around the world. A pair of large-scale propagation simulation studies were conducted using the NASA PCBoom code to compare predicted sonic boom loudness and CW statistics first across the USA and then across the world. For the USA study, near-field data of the X-59 in steady cruise was propagated at 4 cardinal headings at 138 locations through 5 years of Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) atmospheric profiles. Results of a bootstrap forest predictor screening model indicated the importance of climate zone, latitude, ground elevation, season, and heading. It also noted the unimportance of time of day for predicting loudness and CW. The data is visualized in aggregate, and then broken out geographically, by season and heading, and by climate zone. Multiple linear regression models were fit to the data from the 138 locations so that estimates of the loudness and CW can be produced anywhere in the US. The results can aid in planning when and where to fly the X-59. For the global study, near-field data from three aircraft, the X-59 in a quiet and loud configuration, B-58, and Concorde, were propagated at four cardinal headings through data from three atmospheric models, the CFSv2, the Global Forecast System (GFS), and the ECMWF Reanalysis Version 5 (ERA5), at 100 global locations over 1 year. Results of a bootstrap forest predictor screening model indicated the importance of climate zone, ground elevation, season, and heading. Similar to the US study, the model indicated time of day was not an important predictor. The model also indicated that choice of weather model was not important, so the atmospheric model data are effectively interchangeable. The ERA5 model was chosen for use in an extension of the study to include 18 additional locations to ensure sampling of every climate zone. Loudness and CW results are shown in aggregate, and split geographically and by heading, season, and climate. Multiple linear regression models were fit to the data from the 118 locations so that estimates of loudness and CW can be produced around the world. N-waves and shaped booms did not have the same global variability. Koppen-Geiger climate zones were used as the climate zone definition for the global study. These are available as present-day and future climate projections. Making use of the multiple linear regression models, the future climate zones were input to estimate the effect of the changing climate on sonic boom loudness and CW. Results indicate that a changing climate would have little impact on the effectiveness of noise regulations.
X-59↗
Overview of the X-59 Quesst Phase I Mission and Air Data Nose Probe Pre-flight Calibration
A high level overview of NASA’s X-59 Quesst mission will be presented as a lead in to invited special session on X-59 air data probe calibration efforts via wind tunnel testing, Neural Net development and Computation Fluid Dynamics.
x-59↗
Dose-Response Data Considerations for the NASA Quesst Community Test Campaign
Key outcomes for NASA's Quesst mission are noise dose and perceptual response data to inform regulators on their decisions regarding noise certification standards for the future of overland commercial supersonic flight. Dose-response curves are commonly utilized in community noise studies to describe the annoyance of a community to a particular noise source. The X-59 aircraft utilizes shaped-boom technology to demonstrate low noise supersonic flight. For X-59 community studies, the sound level from X-59 overflights constitutes the dose, while the response is an annoyance rating selected from a verbal scale, e.g., “slightly annoyed” and “very annoyed.” Dose-response data will be collected from individual flyovers (single event dose) and an overall response to the accumulation of single events at the end of the day (cumulative dose). There are quantifiable sources of error in the noise dose due to uncertainty in microphone measurements of the sonic thumps and uncertainty in predicted noise levels at survey participant locations. Assessing and accounting for error in the noise dose is essential to obtain an accurate dose-response model. There is also a potential for error in the perceptual response. This error is due to the ability of participants to provide their response in a timely manner and participant fatigue after responding to up to one hundred surveys over the course of a month. This talk outlines various challenges in estimating noise dose and perceptual response and the methods considered in preparation for X-59 community tests.
dose-response↗
NASA Supersonics Research — Leading Toward Quiet Supersonic Flight!!
- Brief history of supersonic flight - Shock waves and sonic booms - Sonic boom pressure signatures and loudness - Tools for studying quiet supersonic flight - CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) - Wind tunnels - Flight test - Quesst Mission - X-59 airplane - Mission profile - Flight simulations - Wind tunnel data validations - Video: Supersonic flight research leading to Quesst
sonic boom↗
NASA Supersonics Research and the X-59 — How They Will Benefit You!!
- Brief history of supersonic flight - Shock waves and sonic booms - Sonic boom pressure signatures and loudness - Tools for studying quiet supersonic flight - CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) - Wind tunnels - Flight test - Quesst Mission - X-59 airplane - Mission profile - Flight simulations - Wind tunnel data validations - Video: Supersonic flight research leading to Quesst
sonic boom↗
Nasa Supersonics Research and the X-59 —To Enable Future Supersonic Travel!
- Brief history of supersonic flight - Shock waves and sonic booms - Sonic boom pressure signatures and loudness - Tools for studying quiet supersonic flight - CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) - Wind tunnels - Flight test - Quesst Mission - X-59 airplane - Mission profile - Flight simulations - Wind tunnel data validations - Video: Supersonic flight research leading to Quesst
sonic boom↗
Comparison of Likelihood Methods for Generalized Linear Mixed Models with Application to Quiet Supersonic Flights 2018 Data
Repeated measurement will be a feature of the survey data collected during the Quesst missionX-59 community response tests (CRT). Since each participant will report his or her categorical level of annoyance in response to multiple events, the responses from any single individual may be correlated with one another. Several models within the class of generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) are pertinent to the analysis of correlated categorical outcomes; the random intercept logistic regression model is one example. Both Bayesian and frequentist methods for fitting these models are available, with frequentist methods relying on some form of approximation (of either an integral or the integrand) that appears in the marginal likelihood function. Given several anticipated similarities of the X-59 CRT data to data collected during a past risk reduction, Quiet Supersonic Flights 2018 (QSF18), this short note is intended to create awareness. It documents an instance in which a reported population average dose-response relationship derived from QSF18 single event data was distorted by the integral approximation applied in likelihood-based methods. We review some of the available literature on the topic, compare the outputs of several different computational approaches implemented in available statistical software, and present simple corrective actions that may be useful during the Quesst mission.
dose-response model↗
Estimating Sonic Boom Metrics Across a Community Using a Kalman Filter
As part of the Quesst mission, NASA will fly the X‑59 aircraft over selected communities to evaluate community responses to low-intensity sonic booms. The purpose of these community tests is to determine the dose-response relationship between the noise exposure metrics and the community response. The independent variables for the dose-response relationship are the noise exposure metrics experienced by survey respondents within the community. Two sources of noise exposure metrics are available in each community: measurements at sparse locations throughout the community, and calculations from propagation models across the community. Both the measurements and calculations are subject to uncertainty. A Kalman filter is proposed to combine the measured and calculated noise exposure metrics to obtain the best estimate of the true noise exposure metrics across the community. The noise exposure metrics estimated by the Kalman filter have lower uncertainty than either the measured or calculated noise exposure metrics alone. Simulations demonstrate that the Kalman filter produces a more accurate estimate of the true noise exposure metrics than other noise estimation methods.
Sonic boom↗
Enabling Supersonic Over-Land Flight Using Computational Modeling
NASA's QueSST mission is interested in exploring the potential of commercial, over-land supersonic flight, which has been banned since 1973 due to the noise intensity of the sonic booms that supersonic vehicles create. NASA has partnered with Lockheed Martin to design and construct an experimental aircraft, the X-59, that will shape the sonic boom to achieve a perceived loudness on the ground that is lower than 75dB. In this talk, we present new developments in the Launch Ascent and Vehicle Aerodynamics (LAVA) CFD solver framework which are tailored to the analysis of supersonic vehicles, like the X-59, and sonic boom propagation. Utilizing a high-order space marching method, adjoint-based grid adaptation, and robust database capabilities have enabled significant cost savings over traditional CFD methods for the same level of accuracy in perceived boom loudness. Example cases demonstrating the toolset are presented, along with comparisons to experimental wind tunnel data. These developments will enable LAVA to quickly and accurately provide simulation data to the project during X-59's first and subsequent flights in 2024 and beyond.
CST↗
Infusing Statistical Thinking into the NASA Quesst Community Test Campaign
Statistical thinking permeates many important decisions as NASA plans its Quesst mission, which will culminate in a series of community overflights using the X-59 aircraft to demonstrate low-noise supersonic flight. Month-long longitudinal surveys will be deployed to assess human perception and annoyance to this new acoustic phenomenon. NASA works with a large contractor team to develop systems and methodologies to estimate noise doses, to test and field socio-acoustic surveys, and to study the relationship between the two quantities, dose and response, through appropriate choices of statistical models. This latter dose-response relationship will serve as an important tool as national and international noise regulators debate whether overland supersonic flights could be permitted once again within permissible noise limits. In this presentation we highlight several areas where statistical thinking has come into play, including issues of sampling, classification and data fusion, and analysis of longitudinal survey data that are subject to rare events and the consequences of measurement error. We note several operational constraints that shape the appeal or feasibility of some decisions on statistical approaches, and we identify several important remaining questions to be addressed.
Bayesian model↗
Overview of Community Response Testing Campaign with NASA's X-59 Aircraft
Prohibition of civil supersonic flight over land became federal regulation in 1973, currently codified in 14 CFR Part 91.817. Of concern, the sonic booms that result when aircraft travel at supersonic speeds were deemed an untenable source of noise affecting populations directly under and near flight paths. Over the past fifty years, research in aircraft design and shaping has led to the prospect of low-noise supersonic flight. As part of its Quesst mission, NASA is building an experimental aircraft, the X-59, to demonstrate this capability. After completing flight test and design validation phases, NASA will field a national community testing campaign in order to collect data on how people perceive the sound from low-noise supersonic flight. The collected data will be provided to national and international regulators as they consider replacing the overland speed limit with a noise-based limit. This presentation provides an overview of the community test campaign, and identifies some of the key objectives, plans, and anticipated challenges.
X-59↗
Turbulence Effects on Shaped Booms: Propagation Simulations Using KZKFourier
Upcoming X-59 aircraft flight tests as part of NASA’s Quesst Mission are expected to occur in a range of atmospheric conditions. Sensitivity of ground waveform acoustic metrics to turbulent perturbations during propagation complicates the determination of noise levels. A series of simulations through turbulence was executed using the KZKFourier model of Stout et al. to develop a database of results for expanding the functionality of NASA tools for estimating turbulence effects on shaped-boom ground waveforms. For 45 cases covering a seven-factor design space, multiple realizations of turbulence were generated to characterize statistical turbulence effects on levels of six acoustic metrics. An individual simulation in the study produced over one thousand waveforms across a virtual microphone array. Different measures were used to evaluate refinement of results with increasing number of simulations. Data suggest that mean effects and variability were most strongly influenced by propagation distance and velocity fluctuation intensity. Although local increases in acoustic metrics were common, the overall average result in all cases was a reduction in metric levels. Sensitivity of acoustic metrics varied, with mean reductions of up to 2 dB in Perceived Level occurring across the 45 cases.
turbulence↗
Turbulence Effects on Shaped Booms: Finite Impulse Response Filter Development
Numerical simulations of propagation through turbulent atmospheres can quantify effects on ground waveforms, but such simulations are computationally expensive. To enable quick turnaround analyses as required by NASA’s Quesst Mission, updating the N-wave filtering approach developed by researchers at The Pennsylvania State University to include shaped booms is proposed as an alternative method for estimating turbulence effects on acoustic metrics more quickly. Beginning with a nearfield pressure cylinder modeled after the on-design X-59 configuration, a database of propagation results at 45 turbulence conditions was compiled using nonlinear turbulence propagation modeling code (KZKFourier) and used as input to a process for generating finite impulse response (FIR) filters. Ground waveforms distorted by turbulence were selected to represent mean and mean±standard deviation levels for six metrics, and corresponding FIR filters were generated through a matrix deconvolution process. In order to evaluate how well the FIR filters perform, additional KZKFourier verification cases were devised with different input conditions, and results used as a benchmark. Convolution of shaped boom waveforms modeled using nonturbulent propagation simulations with the new FIR filters showed better agreement on average with KZKFourier statistical results than the N-wave-based FIR filters.
turbulence↗
Modeling Measurement Error in Dose-Response Models of Community Annoyance to Low-Noise Supersonic Flight
The primary research goal of the forthcoming NASA Quesst mission community test campaign is to collect representative community response data in support of the development of supersonic overflight noise certification standards. Beginning in 2026, NASA will fly the novel X-59 demonstrator aircraft over select communities in United States in order to demonstrate the possibility of low-noise supersonic flight over land and to collect objective measurements and subjective data on the perceptual experience of this new noise source. It is believed that a regression of a binary perceptual response (‘highly annoyed’ or ‘not’) on estimated noise levels (doses, measured in decibels) will provide a useful dose-response relationship for regulators. However, as these estimated doses will be subject to measurement error, naïve estimators of regression coefficients are inconsistent and slopes may be subject to attenuation bias. In this presentation, I contrast functional modeling of measurement error via simulation extrapolation (SIMEX) with structural Bayesian measurement error models. These methods are applied to available data collected during two NASA risk reduction studies in California in 2011 and Texas in 2018. I’ll conclude noting that in the presence of nonnegligible measurement errors, probabilities of annoyance may be overpredicted for low noise levels and underpredicted for high noise levels, therefore, methods of correcting for measurement error will be necessary to improve the utility of the dose-response relationship for policy-making purposes.
simulation↗
Influence of Atmospheric Variability on Predicted Sonic Boom Metrics
As part of the Quesst mission, NASA will fly the X-59 aircraft over selected communities to survey community responses to low sonic booms. Previously, we developed a Kalman filter method to estimate the loudness metrics experienced by each survey participant during each flight. The Kalman filter fuses acoustic measurements with predictions from PCBoom, a sonic boom propagation model. PCBoom requires vertical profiles of the temperature, humidity, and wind to propagate sonic booms through the atmosphere and predict the loudness metrics at the ground. Prior to each X-59 flight, NASA will launch weather balloons to measure the vertical atmospheric profile. However, the atmosphere changes continually with geographic location and time. The purpose of this work is to determine where and when to launch these weather balloons to minimize the uncertainty in the predicted loudness metrics caused by atmospheric variability. We analyzed the effect of atmospheric variability on the predicted Perceived Level in three communities in different climate zones in the United States. To achieve acceptable uncertainty in the Perceived Level, weather balloons should be launched from at least two different sites within the survey area within one hour of each X-59 flight.
sonic boom↗
Uncertainty Quantification Methodology for Sonic Boom Loudness of a Low-Boom Supersonic Concept
This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of uncertainty quantification for sonic boom loudness metrics associated with the X-59 aircraft during its acoustic validation phase. The study focuses on employing advanced methodologies to characterize uncertainties in key sonic boom parameters predicted from a database derived from a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solver. These methodologies include creating a polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) surrogate model, which is then used to run a Monte Carlo analysis to obtain 95% uncertainty intervals for sonic boom loudness parameters across the full carpet. Atmospheric uncertainties are rigorously considered, leveraging weather models based on historical data near Edwards Air Force Base to simulate potential flight conditions. The findings include preliminary uncertainty results for the full carpet during the validation phase of the Quesst mission. Additionally, a sensitivity study reveals that the primary sources of uncertainty are humidity and cruise weight.
Laura M. White↗