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An Alternative Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Approach Using Improved Subseasonal Precipitation Forecasts from the North America Multi-Model Ensemble Phase II

In this article, streamflow forecasting at a subseasonal time scale (10–30 days into the future) is important for various human activities. The ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) is a widely applied technique for subseasonal streamflow forecasting. However, ESP’s reliance on the randomly resampled historical precipitation limits its predictive capability. Available dynamical subseasonal precipitation forecasts provide an alternative to the randomly resampled precipitation in ESP. Prior studies found the predictive performance of raw subseasonal precipitation forecast is limited in many regions such as the central south of the United States, which raises questions about its effectiveness in assisting streamflow forecasting. To further assess the hydrologic applicability of dynamical subseasonal precipitation forecasts, we test the subseasonal precipitation forecast from North America Multi-Model Ensemble Phase II (NMME-2) at four watersheds in the central south region of the United States. The subseasonal precipitation forecasts are postprocessed with bias correction and spatial disaggregation (BCSD) to correct bias and improve spatial resolution before replacing the randomly resampled precipitation in ESP for streamflow predictions. The performance of the resulting streamflow predictions is benchmarked with ESP. Evaluation is conducted using Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE), continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratios (FARs), as well as reliability diagrams. Our results suggest that BCSD-corrected subseasonal precipitation forecasts lead to overall improved streamflow predictions due to added skills in winter and spring. Our results also suggest that BCSD-corrected subseasonal precipitation forecasts lead to improved predictions on the occurrence of high-percentile streamflow values above 75%. Overall, BCSD-corrected subseasonal precipitation has shown promising performance, highlighting its potential broader applications for river and flood forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Solvent-mediated carboxylic acid diammonium spacer for synthesizing FA-based 2D Dion–Jacobson perovskites toward efficient solar cells

Two-dimensional (2D) perovskites are promising for photovoltaic applications due to their outstanding optical properties and better environmental stability compared to three-dimensional (3D) perovskites. Unlike 2D Ruddlesden–Popper (RP) perovskites, which use monovalent ammonium spacers, Dion–Jacobson (DJ) perovskites employ divalent organic spacers that enhance structural stability by mitigating weak van der Waals interactions. However, the random phase distribution and disorder crystal orientation in 2D DJ perovskites create deep quantum wells, hindering charge transfer and reducing short-circuit current density (J SC ) and overall photovoltaic performance. This study introduces an organic diammonium, 1,4-butanediamine diacetate (BDAAc 2 ), to replace the traditional halide spacer 1,4-butanediamine iodide (BDADI 2 ). This substitution regulates perovskites crystallization dynamics, reducing compositional disorder and random phase distribution, thus improving the quality of the perovskite films. The robust coordination interactions between BDAAc 2 and the perovskite inorganic framework lead to an ordered [PbX 6 ] 4− arrangement, suppressing the formation of complex intermediate phases and significantly enhancing δ phase crystallinity in the intermediate film. This results in a high yield of high-quality α phase. Consequently, the resulting 2D DJ perovskite solar cells based on BDAFA 3 Pb 4 (I 0.9 Br 0.1 ) 13 achieve a higher power conversion efficiency of 16.41% and an elevated J SC of 20.46 mA cm −2 .

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Universal Spreading of Conditional Mutual Information in Noisy Random Circuits

For this work, we study the evolution of conditional mutual information (CMI) in generic open quantum systems, focusing on one-dimensional random circuits with interspersed local noise. Unlike in noiseless circuits, where CMI spreads linearly while being bounded by the light cone, we find that noisy random circuits with an error rate 𝑝 exhibit superlinear propagation of CMI, which diverges far beyond the light cone at a critical circuit depth 𝑡 𝑐 ∝ 𝑝 −1 . We demonstrate that the underlying mechanism for such rapid spreading is the combined effect of local noise and a scrambling unitary, which selectively removes short-range correlations while preserving long-range correlations. To analytically capture the dynamics of CMI in noisy random circuits, we introduce a coarse-graining method, and we validate our theoretical results through numerical simulations. Furthermore, we identify a universal scaling law governing the spreading of CMI.

decoherence

Fouling behavior of zwitterionic membranes compared to polyamide membranes

Membrane fouling remains a critical bottleneck for reverse osmosis (RO) desalination, driving energy consumption and reducing membrane lifetime. Here, we employ all-atom molecular dynamics simulations to investigate the antifouling behavior of random zwitterionic amphiphilic copolymer (r-ZAC) membranes composed of sulfobetaine methacrylate (SBMA) and allyl methacrylate (AMA), benchmarked against conventional polyamide (PA) RO membranes. Structural and dynamical analyses—including radial distribution functions, coordination numbers, tetrahedral order parameters, vector orientation, and residence-time correlation functions—reveal that r-ZAC surfaces sustain tightly bound, long-lived hydration layers with preserved tetrahedrality and anisotropic water orientation, in sharp contrast to the weak and disordered hydration of PA. Steered molecular dynamics simulations demonstrate that r-ZAC membranes impose substantial free-energy barriers to foulant approach (alginate ≈ 90 kcal/mol, sucrose ≈ 35 kcal/mol, humic acid ≈ 15 kcal/mol), whereas PA membranes exhibit negligible barriers (< 1 kcal/mol) and thermodynamically favorable adsorption. Detailed foulant–surface interaction analyses show that zwitterionic hydration and electrostatic heterogeneity in r-ZAC suppress adhesion, except in the case of amphiphilic humic acid, which exploits multiple binding modes. Together, these results establish molecular-level design principles for antifouling membranes: the combination of zwitterionic hydration, structured interfacial water, and controlled amphiphilic balance in r-ZAC membranes provides superior resistance to organic fouling relative to PA.

Cross-linked polyamide

Using principal component analysis to distinguish different dynamic phases in superconducting vortex matter

Vortices in type-II superconductors driven over random disorder are known to exhibit a remarkable variety of distinct nonequilibrium dynamical phases that arise owing to the competition between vortex-vortex interactions, the quenched disorder, and the drive. These include pinned states, elastic flows, plastic or disordered flows, and dynamically reordered moving crystal or moving smectic states. The plastic flow phases can be particularly difficult to characterize since the flows are strongly disordered. Here, we perform principal component analysis (PCA) on the positions and velocities of vortex matter moving over random disorder for different disorder strengths and drives. We find that PCA can distinguish the known dynamic phases as well as or better than previous measures based on transport signatures or topological defect densities. In addition, PCA recognizes distinct plastic flow regimes, a slowly changing channel flow and a moving amorphous fluid flow, that do not produce distinct signatures in the standard measurements. In conclusion, our results suggest that this position and velocity-based PCA approach could be used to characterize dynamic phases in a broader class of systems that exhibit depinning and nonequilibrium phase transitions.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND

Understanding Viscoelasticity of an Entangled Silicone Copolymer via Coarse-Grained Molecular Dynamics Simulations

Entangled dynamics is important for understanding rheological properties of long-chain polymers. For entangled homopolymers, the classic tube-reptation model and its refinements have been successfully applied to quantify properties like diffusion coefficient and zero-rate viscosity. However, the application of such models to copolymers has been limited despite scientific and industrial importance. Here, we study the entangled melt dynamics of poly(dimethyl-co-diphenyl)siloxane random copolymer for a range of mean-composition-ratio ϕ of the diphenyl component via long-term molecular dynamics simulation with a recently developed coarse-grained model. We found that the segmental relaxation is heterogeneous at the monomeric level because of compositional fluctuations. However, at the chain-entanglement level and higher length scales, the viscoelastic response is homogeneous with compositional dependence only through the overall diphenyl fraction ϕ. The relaxation modulus of the entangled copolymer melt conforms to the Likhtman–McLeish model, and the viscosity predicted using our current coarse-grained parameters is in good quantitative agreement with experimental data.

Copolymers

Computational multiphysics modeling of radioactive aerosol deposition in diverse human respiratory tract geometries

The evaluation of aerosol exposure relies on generic mathematical models that assume uniform particle deposition profiles over the human respiratory tract and do not account for subject-specific characteristics. Here we introduce a hybrid-automated computational workflow that generates personalized particle deposition profiles in 3D reconstructed human airways from computed tomography scans using Computational Fluid and Particle Dynamics simulations. This is the first large-scale study to consider realistic airways variability, where 380 lower and 40 upper human respiratory tract 3D geometries are reconstructed and parameterized. The data is clustered into nine groups using random forest regression. Computational fluid and particle dynamics simulations are conducted on these representative geometries using a realistic heavy-breathing respiratory cycle and radioactive iodine-131 as a source term. Monte Carlo radiation transport simulations are performed to obtain detailed energy deposition maps. Our findings emphasize the importance of personalized studies, as minor respiratory tract variations notably influence deposition patterns rather than global parameters of the lower airways, observing more than 30% variance in the mass deposition fraction.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE

Development of a coarse-grained molecular dynamics model for poly(dimethyl- co -diphenyl)siloxane

Polydimethylsiloxane is an important polymeric material with a wide range of applications. However, environmental effects like low temperature can induce crystallization in this material with resulting changes in its structural and dynamic properties. The incorporation of phenyl-siloxane components, e.g., as in a poly(dimethyl-co-diphenyl)siloxane random copolymer, is known to suppress such crystallization. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations can be a powerful tool to understand such effects in atomistic detail. Unfortunately, all-atomistic molecular dynamics (AAMD) is limited in both spatial dimensions and simulation times it can probe. Here, to overcome such constraints and to extend to more useful length- and time-scales, we systematically develop a coarse-grained molecular dynamics (CGMD) model for the poly(dimethyl-co-diphenyl)siloxane system with bonded and non-bonded interactions determined from all-atomistic simulations by the iterative Boltzmann inversion (IBI) method. Additionally, we propose a lever rule that can be useful to generate non-bonded potentials for such systems without reference to the all-atomistic ground truth. Our model captures the structural and dynamic properties of the copolymer material with quantitative accuracy and is useful to study long-time dynamics of highly-entangled systems, sequence-dependent properties, phase behaviour, etc.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Capturing the Page curve and entanglement dynamics of black holes in quantum computers

Quantum computers are emerging technologies expected to become important tools for exploring various aspects of fundamental physics in the future. Therefore, we pose the question of whether quantum computers can help us to study the Page curve and the black hole information dynamics, which has been a key focus in fundamental physics. In this regard, we rigorously examine the qubit transport model, a toy qubit model of black hole evaporation on IBM’s superconducting quantum computers, to shed light on this question. Specifically, we implement the quantum simulation of the scrambling dynamics in black holes using an efficient random unitary circuit. Furthermore, we employ the swap-based many-body interference protocol and the randomized measurement protocol to measure the entanglement entropy of Hawking radiation qubits in this model. Finally, by incorporating quantum error mitigation techniques into our challenging implementation of entanglement entropy measurement protocols on the IBM quantum hardware, we accurately determine the Rényi entropy in the qubit transport model, thus showcasing the utility of quantum computers for future investigations of complex quantum systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Turbulent-like flows in quasi two-dimensional dense suspensions of motile colloids

Dense bacterial suspensions exhibit turbulent-like flows at low Reynolds numbers, driven by the activity of the microswimmers. In this study, we develop a model system to examine these dynamics using motile colloids that mimic bacterial locomotion. The colloids are powered by the Quincke instability, which causes them to spontaneously roll in a random-walk pattern when exposed to a square-wave electric field. We experimentally investigate the flow dynamics in dense suspensions of these Quincke random walkers under quasi two-dimensional conditions, where the particle size is comparable to the gap between the electrodes. The results suggest a scaling regime in the energy spectrum ∼k −4 at high wavenumbers, observed consistently across activity levels and particle concentrations. We observe that velocity time correlations decay within a single period of the square-wave field, yet an anti-correlation appears between successive field applications, indicative of a dynamic structural memory of the ensemble.

Luo, Rui [Northwestern Univ., Evanston, IL (United

High-Performance Semiempirical Excited-State Molecular Dynamics Powered by Graphics Processing Units

Here, this Letter introduces excited-state molecular dynamics in PYSEQM, a GPU-accelerated semiempirical quantum chemistry engine implemented in PyTorch. The new module enables Born–Oppenheimer molecular dynamics (BOMD) using configuration-interaction singles and random phase approximation for excited states, allowing long trajectories and large statistical ensembles to be simulated efficiently on a single GPU. We also implement an extended Lagrangian excited-state BOMD (XL-ESMD) scheme that propagates auxiliary electronic variables, enabling relaxed ground and excited-state convergence thresholds without compromising energy conservation. The excited-state BOMD implementation scales smoothly from small chromophores to a nearly 900-atom dendrimer (taking 6.5 s per MD step). PYSEQM also supports batched execution, allowing many geometries or trajectories to be evaluated in a single GPU launch, substantially increasing throughput and making ensemble-based protocols routine. As a demonstration, we compute absorption, emission, and infrared spectra from trajectories propagated on the ground and first excited states. The XL-ESMD scheme yields identical spectra at significantly lower computational cost, establishing the role of extended Lagrangian based dynamics for efficient excited-state BOMD simulations. Beyond raw performance, PYSEQM’s PyTorch foundation provides automatic differentiation for forces, efficient GPU batching, and seamless interfacing with machine learning models. These capabilities position PYSEQM as a practical platform for machine learning-augmented excited-state dynamics and lay the foundation for future data-driven nonadiabatic excited-state dynamics modeling of ultrafast spectroscopic probes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH

Near-field-driven radiative thermal dynamics in aperiodic photonic nanostructures

Harnessing structural correlations in near-field plasmonic and polaritonic systems hold untapped potential for controlling light–matter interactions at the nanoscale. By tuning these correlations, one can reshape mode localization, coupling, and spectral distribution which are properties central to manipulating energy transport and field enhancement in nanophotonic platforms. We exploit Vogel spirals, an aperiodic geometry where a single parameter dictates spatial correlations, to show how correlation strength reshapes the modal spectrum and transient dynamics of near-field coupling. As a proof of concept, we demonstrate that aperiodic configurations outperform both uncorrelated (random) and periodic arrays in controlling near-field radiative heat-transfer dynamics. These results establish deterministic aperiodic order as a powerful platform for tailoring correlated electromagnetic responses in next-generation nanophotonic devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Enhancing high-fidelity neural network potentials through low-fidelity sampling

The efficacy of neural network potentials (NNPs) critically depends on the quality of the configurational datasets used for training. Prior research using empirical potentials has shown that well-selected liquid–solid transitional configurations of a metallic system can be translated to other metallic systems. This study demonstrates that such validated configurations can be relabeled using density functional theory (DFT) calculations, thereby enhancing the development of high-fidelity NNPs. Training strategies and sampling approaches are efficiently assessed using empirical potentials and subsequently relabeled via DFT in a highly parallelized fashion for high-fidelity NNP training. Our results reveal that relying solely on energy and force for NNP training is inadequate to prevent overfitting, highlighting the necessity of incorporating stress terms into the loss functions. To optimize training involving force and stress terms, we propose employing transfer learning to fine-tune the weights, ensuring that the potential surface is smooth for these quantities composed of energy derivatives. This approach markedly improves the accuracy of elastic constants derived from simulations in both empirical potential-based NNPs and relabeled DFT-based NNPs. Overall, this study offers significant insights into leveraging empirical potentials to expedite the development of reliable and robust NNPs at the DFT level.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Dynamic Disruption Resilience in Intermodal Transport Networks: Integrating Flow Weighting and Centrality Measures

Resilient intermodal freight networks are vital for sustaining supply chains amid increasing threats from natural hazards and cyberattacks. Transportation resilience has been widely studied; understanding how random and targeted disruptions affect structural connectivity and functional performance remains a key challenge. To address this, this study evaluates the robustness of the US intermodal freight network, which consists of rail and water modes, using a simulation-based framework that integrates graph-theoretic metrics with flow-weighted centrality measures. Disruption scenarios are examined, including random failures as well as targeted node and edge removals based on static and dynamically updated degree and betweenness centrality. To reflect more realistic conditions, flow-weighted degree centralities (WDC) and partial node degradation are considered. Two resilience indicators are used: (1) the size of the giant connected component to measure structural connectivity; and (2) flow-weighted network efficiency (NE) to assess freight mobility under disruption. The results show that progressively degrading nodes ranked by WDC to 60% of their original functionality causes a sharper decline in normalized NE, for up to approximately 45 affected nodes, than complete failure (100% loss of functionality) applied to nodes targeted by weighted betweenness centrality or selected at random. This highlights how partial degradation of high-tonnage hubs can produce disproportionately large functional losses. The findings emphasize the need for resilience strategies that go beyond network topology to incorporate freight flow dynamics.

42 ENGINEERING

Quantification and prediction of solidification textures under additive manufacturing conditions

Crystallographic textures are a major determinant of the macroscale anisotropic properties of polycrystalline metallic alloys produced in a wide range of additive manufacturing (AM) processes. Here, we introduce a statistical method that can accurately quantify the degree of orientational order of textures despite the large random fluctuations in the orientation of individual grains inherent in AM processes. The method, demonstrated for laser and resolidification of AlSi thin films, extends Z-scoring to a dynamical regime to assess the statistical significance of observed textures compared to randomly generated ones at different stages of solidification. We further show that, combined with phase-field modeling, this method can be used to infer fundamental anisotropic properties of the solid-liquid interface that are essential for texture prediction, and are compared here to the results of atomistic simulations. In addition, phase-field modeling reveals that, even at rapid AM solidification rates, the observed 〈110〉-dominated textures in the AlSi thin films are controlled predominantly by the anisotropy of the interface free-energy and sheds light on the physical mechanism of grain competition. These results significantly enhance both the existing tools for the quantification and prediction of AM crystallographic textures and our basic understanding of their formation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Efficient Training of Deep Neural Operator Networks via Randomized Sampling

Neural operators (NOs) employ deep neural networks to learn the mappings between infinitedimensional function spaces. Deep operator network (DeepONet), a popular NO architecture, has demonstrated success in the real-time prediction of complex dynamics across various scientific and engineering applications. In this work, we introduce a random sampling technique to be adopted during the training of DeepONet, aimed at improving the generalization ability of the model, while significantly reducing the computational time. The proposed approach targets the trunk network of the DeepONet model that outputs the basis functions corresponding to the spatiotemporal locations of the bounded domain on which the physical system is defined. While constructing the loss function, DeepONet training traditionally considers a uniform grid of spatiotemporal points at which all the output functions are evaluated for each iteration. This approach leads to a larger batch size, resulting in poor generalization and increased memory demands, due to the limitations of the stochastic gradient descent (SGD) optimizer. The proposed random sampling over the inputs of the trunk net mitigates these challenges, improving generalization and reducing the memory requirements during training, resulting in significant computational gains. We validate our hypothesis through three benchmark examples, demonstrating substantial reductions in training time while achieving comparable or lower overall test errors relative to the traditional training approach. Our results indicate that incorporating randomization in the trunk network inputs during training enhances the efficiency and robustness of DeepONet, offering a promising avenue for improving the framework’s performance in modeling complex physical systems.

Karumuri, Sharmila [Department of Civil & Systems

Role of Chemical Disorder in High Temperature Dislocation Glide in Refractory Multi-principal Element Alloys

Refractory multi-principal element alloys (RMPEAs) combine a chemically disordered lattice with a structurally ordered, single‐phase body‐centered cubic (bcc) crystal structure. Chemical fluctuations in these alloys give rise to significant energy barriers that impede dislocation motion. In this study, we use phase field dislocation dynamics to examine how spatial temperature fluctuations compete with randomness in energy barriers to affect the motion of long screw dislocations in three equi-atomic MoNbTa‐based RMPEAs: MoNbTa, MoNbTaW, and MoNbTaVW. Over a wide range of homologous temperatures (T h ≈ 0–0.6), we determined a screw dislocation ‘flow stress’ as the minimum applied stress to sustain continuous motion over a long excursion distance within a fixed timeframe. All three RMPEAs exhibit temperature dependent flow stress with three characteristic glide regimes: at low homologous temperatures, flow stress drops sharply, and screw glide remains planar and rectilinear; at intermediate homologous temperatures, the flow stress levels off as glide becomes planar but wavy; and at high homologous temperatures, flow stress plateaus as screws exhibit nonplanar, three‐dimensional motion. Glide kinetics and transition temperatures are controlled by the chemically induced fluctuations in the energy landscape. The rectilinear to wavy transition temperature is controlled by statistically weakest local barriers in the glide plane, whereas the wavy to 3D transition temperature is governed by statistically strongest local barriers. At low and intermediate homologous temperatures, the relative spread in energy barriers governs glide behavior by controlling the local kinetics of kink pair formation and kink pinning. At high homologous temperatures, the average barrier height governs the glide behavior by controlling the number of out-of-plane excursions during 3D glide. These findings reveal how random chemical fluctuations determine screw‐driven plasticity in RMPEAs, providing critical insight for the design of high temperature structural alloys.

Defects

Dual-unitary shadow tomography

We introduce a classical shadow tomography scheme based on dual-unitary brick-wall circuits termed "dual-unitary shadow tomography" (DUST). For this we study operator spreading and Pauli weight dynamics in one-dimensional qubit systems, evolved by random two-local dual-unitary gates arranged in a brick-wall structure, ending with a final measurement layer. We do this by deriving general constraints on the Pauli weight transfer matrix and specializing to the case of dual-unitarity. We first show that dual-unitaries must have a minimal amount of entropy production. Remarkably, we find that operator spreading in these circuits have a rich structure resembling that of relativistic quantum field theories, with massless chiral excitations that can decay or fuse into each other, which we call left- or right-movers. We develop a mean-field description of the Pauli weight in terms of $\rho(x,t)$, which represents the probability of having nontrivial support at site $x$ and depth $t$ starting from a fixed weight distribution. We develop an equation of state for $\rho(x,t)$, and simulate it numerically using Monte Carlo simulations. Lastly, we demonstrate that the fast-thermalizing properties of dual-unitary circuits make them better at predicting large operators than shallow brick-wall Clifford circuits. Our results are robust to finite-size effects due to the chirality of dual-unitary brick-wall circuits.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING