Results for “Resilience maturity” — Page 2

DOE OSTI2022

Roadmap to Automated Mobility Systems: Informing the Planning of a Sustainable, Resilient Transportation Ecosystem for Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed this report to provide Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport (DFW) assistance toward a vision that considers the maturation and proliferation of mobility automation, electrification, and infrastructure integrated with Internet of Things (IoT) technologies as they present themselves on the path to 2035. In planning ongoing infrastructure investments, DFW has goals to accommodate and leverage these enabling technologies toward greater sustainability and enhanced traveler and employee experiences, ensuring that infrastructure investments are fully utilized into the future. The objective of this document is to assist DFW to anticipate and envision future airport access by travelers, employees, and goods by examining existing needs and exploring opportunities enabled by technology that informs longer-term infrastructure planning. The vast infrastructure of DFW, which includes buildings, roadways, and other physical structures, as well as growing digital and energy network infrastructures, requires long-term planning and strategy to fully leverage technology advancement and avoid abandoning assets due to functional obsolescence.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Integrated Modeling Driven Evaluation of Opportunities for Climate‐Resilient Perennial Biomass Crop Plantings in Flood‐Prone Agricultural Landscapes

Adapting to future climate change in flood-prone landscapes will require climate-resilient agricultural systems. Planting perennial crops, like switchgrass and willow, along river corridors can mitigate future flooding while supporting bioenergy markets. We developed an integrated assessment linking climate, hydrologic, and inundation model results to assess future flood risk to river-adjacent agricultural lands in the Mid-Atlantic Region (MAR) and explore this opportunity. We produced ensemble streamflow projections for every MAR stream using a hydrologic model driven by a suite of downscaled and bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate projections. We then conducted high-resolution inundation mapping based on projected flood frequencies for baseline and future periods. Results show that in the near-term future, at least two-thirds of the streams will experience 100-year floods more severe than the baseline 200-year floods. Riparian zones are projected to face a median rise of inundation by 9.5%–24.1%. Results show that there is an opportunity to mitigate flooding in over half of MAR's counties with the quantities of switchgrass and willow plantings anticipated for mature bioenergy markets, even under the most extreme (200-year) flood events. Our integrated modeling framework can guide similar regions to evaluate opportunities for flood-resilient agricultural systems under climate change.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Hail Storm Risk Assessment Using Space-Borne Remote Sensing Observations and Reanalyses

Much of the world is impacted by severe thunderstorms, but whether they become disasters depends upon resilience--our capacity to prepare, mitigate, respond, and recover. Hail is the costliest severe weather hazard for the insurance industry, generating ~70% of severe convective storm losses due to damage to assets such as homes, businesses, agriculture, and infrastructure. Most insurance companies do not reserve enough capital to cover catastrophes, so they acquire reinsurance. The reinsurance industry uses catastrophe models (CatModels) to statistically estimate risk to an insurer’s portfolio. Hail CatModels are developed with climatologies that define hailstorm frequency and severity. Hail-prone areas can be defined using hail reports from trained spotters, the media, and the general public. Extremely severe hail (2+ inch diameter) occurs nearly every day across the world. Weather radars can detect hail because hailstones strongly reflect microwave signals that they emit. However, hail climatologies are difficult to derive because hail covers small areas and there are neither hail reporting mechanisms (e.g. website or mobile app) nor radar networks in most places outside the US and Europe. This lack of ground truth on severe hail puts society and economies at risk. Hail is generated within storms by strong updrafts. These updrafts exhibit unique signatures in NASA and other agency satellite observations, offering new opportunities for hailstorm analysis. Geostationary (GEO) visible and infrared imagery has been collected for ~15-25 years across the world (region dependent) and methods have been developed at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) to detect hailstorm updrafts using GEO imagery. Climatological GEO updraft data has been used by Willis Towers Watson (WTW), a leader in catastrophe risk assessment for the insurance industry, and Karlsruhe Institute of Technology to develop CatModels over Europe and Australia. Hail can also be inferred with passive microwave imagery collected by low-Earth-orbiting sensors such as the GPM GMI, TRMM TMI, AMSR-E, AMSR-2, SSM/I, and SSMIS over the last 20+ years using methods developed at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). Hailstorms generate enhanced lightning flash rates that can be tracked using new GOES-R series GEO Lightning Mapping (GLM) imagery. Atmospheric reanalyses can be used to define favorable hailstorm environments for combination with the satellite-based storm detections. This presentation will describe a framework for developing continental to global hail climatologies and CatModels based on NASA satellite data and capabilities. This is a collaboration between LaRC and MSFC, WTW, and partners in Brazil, Argentina, and South Africa. This project seeks to mitigate hail disasters by aiding development of new satellite-based severe storm nowcasting tools by regional partners and developing climatologies to improve societal understanding of hail frequency. GEOO visible and infrared metrics of storm intensity, environmental conditions based on reanalyses, spotter hail reports and radar MESH observations are intercompared to quantify the detectability of hailstorms, and our ability to discriminate hailstorms from other severe storms. We are also maturing methods using land surface imaging satellite data (e.g. MODIS, Landsat, Sentinel 1 and 2) to identify hail damage to agriculture. Work with WTW will improve socioeconomic resilience through development of new CatModels. Southern Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, and Argentina feature some of the most intense thunderstorms on Earth. South America and South Africa are developing insurance markets of interest to WTW clients, and is similar to other regions routinely impacted by hail that do not have comprehensive hail reporting or radars to assess hailstorm frequency. Project datasets will be made available via online GIS-enabled tools developed at the LaRC Atmospheric Science Data Center (ASDC) which will visualize data and provide it in multiple formats for use in a wide range of open source and commercial tools.

Kristopher Michael Bedka↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NextSTEP Appendix A Modular ECLSS Effort Lessons Learned

NASA’s Artemis program provides the first steps for earth-independent exploration starting with crewed habitats in cislunar space and progressing toward crewed landings on the lunar surface that will prepare systems and crews for the exploration of Mars. The Next Space Technology for Exploration Partnerships (NextSTEP) is a public-private partnership model that facilitates commercial development of deep space exploration capabilities in support of more extensive human spaceflight missions in and beyond cislunar space. NASA issued the original NextSTEP Broad Agency Announcement (BAA) to U.S. industry in late 2014 and issued the second BAA (NextSTEP-2) in April 2016. The first appendix under NextSTEP-2, Appendix A, focused on developing deep space habitation concepts, engineering design and development, and risk reduction efforts leading to a habitation capability in cislunar space. NASA solicited concepts to develop and refine the evolvable, modular architecture, functional allocation options, standards, and common interfaces required to enable interoperability of the aggregate system to provide long duration deep space transit habitation, specifically enhancements and testing of deep space Environmental Control and Life Support Systems (ECLSS). Collins Aerospace, formerly UTC Aerospace Systems (UTAS), was awarded a Phase 1 and subsequent Phase 2 contract to “develop concepts that group ECLS systems into logical modules maximizing the use of common components and the development of unique methods and design concepts that support in-flight maintenance and repair for future exploration systems.” This paper summarizes the work accomplished under this effort, the lessons that can be applied to development of forthcoming habitation elements, and the gaps remaining to achieve a more resilient, maintainable, repairable and adaptable system capable of installation on a wide variety of habitat platforms. A primary accomplishment of this effort is the development and maturation of a modular palletization concept to enable standard rack interfaces, post-launch outfitting, and decoupling of structural supports that withstand launch environments from those needed for lower on-orbit loads in order to reduce installed mass and repurposing of panels within the habitat. In the course of the effort, Collins assessed numerous architecture trades, including the use of condensing and noncondensing heat exchangers, the ability of modular units to accommodate various habitat volumes and thermal loading, and the most appropriate order of and timing of delivery of regenerative ECLSS hardware to orbital habitats. In addition to the modularity of hardware elements, Collins developed software approaches for distributed/modular command, control, and communication systems and innovative Bayesian fault detection and isolation techniques. Finally, the effort explored advanced maintainability and supportability concepts including the definition of maintenance units (MUs) in place of the traditional Orbital Replacement Units (ORUs), increasing parts commonality to reduce the number and type of spare parts, the use of augmented reality to guide crews during maintenance and repair procedures, and how crews would prepare for and recover from long durations of habitat dormancy. Now that the NextSTEP Modular ECLSS effort has come to a close, it’s important to identify the lessons learned and where they can be leveraged to improve NASA’s broader program of ECLSS technology development and demonstration and ultimately how they can increase the performance of future surface and orbital habitats.

NextSTEP↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NextSTEP Appendix A Modular ECLSS Effort Lessons Learned

NASA’s Artemis program provides the first steps for earth-independent exploration starting with crewed habitats in cislunar space and progressing toward crewed landings on the lunar surface that will prepare systems and crews for the exploration of Mars. The Next Space Technology for Exploration Partnerships (NextSTEP) is a public-private partnership model that facilitates commercial development of deep space exploration capabilities in support of more extensive human spaceflight missions in and beyond cislunar space. NASA issued the original NextSTEP Broad Agency Announcement (BAA) to U.S. industry in late 2014 and issued the second BAA (NextSTEP-2) in April 2016. The first appendix under NextSTEP-2, Appendix A, focused on developing deep space habitation concepts, engineering design and development, and risk reduction efforts leading to a habitation capability in cislunar space. NASA solicited concepts to develop and refine the evolvable, modular architecture, functional allocation options, standards, and common interfaces required to enable interoperability of the aggregate system to provide long duration deep space transit habitation, specifically enhancements and testing of deep space Environmental Control and Life Support Systems (ECLSS). Collins Aerospace, formerly UTC Aerospace Systems (UTAS), was awarded a Phase 1 and subsequent Phase 2 contract to “develop concepts that group ECLS systems into logical modules maximizing the use of common components and the development of unique methods and design concepts that support in-flight maintenance and repair for future exploration systems.” This paper summarizes the work accomplished under this effort, the lessons that can be applied to development of forthcoming habitation elements, and the gaps remaining to achieve a more resilient, maintainable, repairable and adaptable system capable of installation on a wide variety of habitat platforms. A primary accomplishment of this effort is the development and maturation of a modular palletization concept to enable standard rack interfaces, post-launch outfitting, and decoupling of structural supports that withstand launch environments from those needed for lower on-orbit loads in order to reduce installed mass and repurposing of panels within the habitat. In the course of the effort, Collins assessed numerous architecture trades, including the use of condensing and noncondensing heat exchangers, the ability of modular units to accommodate various habitat volumes and thermal loading, and the most appropriate order of and timing of delivery of regenerative ECLSS hardware to orbital habitats. In addition to the modularity of hardware elements, Collins developed software approaches for distributed/modular command, control, and communication systems and innovative Bayesian fault detection and isolation techniques. Finally, the effort explored advanced maintainability and supportability concepts including the definition of maintenance units (MUs) in place of the traditional Orbital Replacement Units (ORUs), increasing parts commonality to reduce the number and type of spare parts, the use of augmented reality to guide crews during maintenance and repair procedures, and how crews would prepare for and recover from long durations of habitat dormancy. Now that the NextSTEP Modular ECLSS effort has come to a close, it’s important to identify the lessons learned and where they can be leveraged to improve NASA’s broader program of ECLSS technology development and demonstration and ultimately how they can increase the performance of future surface and orbital habitats.

NextSTEP↗

DOE OSTI2022

Uncovering natural variation in root system architecture and growth dynamics using a robotics-assisted phenomics platform

The plant kingdom contains a stunning array of complex morphologies easily observed above-ground, but more challenging to visualize below-ground. Understanding the magnitude of diversity in root distribution within the soil, termed root system architecture (RSA), is fundamental in determining how this trait contributes to species adaptation in local environments. Roots are the interface between the soil environment and the shoot system and therefore play a key role in anchorage, resource uptake, and stress resilience. Previously, we presented the GLO-Roots (Growth and Luminescence Observatory for Roots) system to study the RSA of soil-grown Arabidopsis thaliana plants from germination to maturity (Rellán-Álvarez et al., 2015). In this study, we present the automation of GLO-Roots using robotics and the development of image analysis pipelines in order to examine the temporal dynamic regulation of RSA and the broader natural variation of RSA in Arabidopsis , over time. These datasets describe the developmental dynamics of two independent panels of accessions and reveal highly complex and polygenic RSA traits that show significant correlation with climate variables of the accessions’ respective origins.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2014

Heterogeneous Wireless Mesh Network Technology Evaluation for Space Proximity and Surface Applications

NASA has identified standardized wireless mesh networking as a key technology for future human and robotic space exploration. Wireless mesh networks enable rapid deployment, provide coverage in undeveloped regions. Mesh networks are also self-healing, resilient, and extensible, qualities not found in traditional infrastructure-based networks. Mesh networks can offer lower size, weight, and power (SWaP) than overlapped infrastructure-perapplication. To better understand the maturity, characteristics and capability of the technology, we developed an 802.11 mesh network consisting of a combination of heterogeneous commercial off-the-shelf devices and opensource firmware and software packages. Various streaming applications were operated over the mesh network, including voice and video, and performance measurements were made under different operating scenarios. During the testing several issues with the currently implemented mesh network technology were identified and outlined for future work.

DeCristofaro, Michael A.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Principles of the Battery Data Genome

Batteries are central to modern society. They are no longer just a convenience but a critical enabler of the transition to a resilient, low-carbon economy. Battery development capabilities are provided by communities spanning materials discovery, battery chemistry and electrochemistry, cell and pack design, scale-up, manufacturing, and deployments. Despite their relative maturity, data-science practices among these diverse groups are far behind the state of the art in other fields, which have demonstrated an ability to significantly improve innovation and economic impact. The negative consequences of the present paradigm include incremental improvements but few breakthroughs, significant manufacturing uncertainties, and cascading investment risks that collectively slow deployments. The primary roadblock to a battery-data-science renaissance is the requirement for large amounts of high-quality data, which are not available in the current fragmented ecosystem. Here, in this study, we identify gaps and propose principles that enable the solution by building a robust community of data hubs with standardized practices and flexible sharing options that will seed advanced tools spanning innovation to deployment. Precedents are offered that demonstrate that both public good and immense economic gains will arise from sharing valuable battery data. The proposed Battery Data Genome looks to broadly transform innovations and revolutionize their translation from research to societal impact.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SafeMAP: Safe Multi-Agent Planning Framework Based on Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment

This paper proposes a risk-aware framework for Safe Multi-Agent Planning (SafeMAP) that unifies disparate models for multi-agent systems in a Markovian process that allows for simultaneous system health monitoring, decision making under uncertainty, and multi-agent system collaboration. As operations beyond low earth orbit mature, there is an increased need for autonomous cyber-physical systems with onboard decision making capabilities. Multi-agent cyber-physical systems in particular offer the potential of increased efficiency, resiliency, and mission capabilities for future applications such as multi-rover terrain operations, distributed satellite operations, and management of smart lunar habitats. SafeMAP utilizes physics-based models of each agent and the relevant components, probability models of the environment and component operational states, and reward models for mission-specific objectives such as scientific task completion or resource consumption. The output of SafeMAP is a set of mission plans that satisfy the mission objective under specified risk/reward constraints. A readable interpretation of each of these generated mission plans is provided as an additional output. SafeMAP has been demonstrated on a simulated case study involving a four-rover system performing surface mapping operations and science tasks. Results of this paper demonstrate SafeMAP’s ability to generate explainable mission plans that satisfy the mission objective while minimizing risk under nominal and off-nominal conditions.

Mohammad Hejase↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SafeMAP: Safe Multi-Agent Planning framework based on Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment

This paper proposes a risk-aware framework for Safe Multi-Agent Planning (SafeMAP) that unifies disparate models for multi-agent systems in a Markovian process that allows for simultaneous system health monitoring, decision making under uncertainty, and multi-agent system collaboration. As operations beyond low earth orbit mature, there is an increased need for autonomous cyber-physical systems with onboard decision making capabilities. Multi-agent cyber-physical systems in particular offer the potential of increased efficiency, resiliency, and mission capabilities for future applications such as multi-rover terrain operations, distributed satellite operations, and management of smart lunar habitats. SafeMAP utilizes physics-based models of each agent and the relevant components, probability models of the environment and component operational states, and reward models for mission-specific objectives such as scientific task completion or resource consumption. The output of SafeMAP is a set of mission plans that satisfy the mission objective under specified risk/reward constraints. A readable interpretation of each of these generated mission plans is provided as an additional output. SafeMAP has been demonstrated on a simulated case study involving a four-rover system performing surface mapping operations and science tasks. Results of this paper demonstrate SafeMAP’s ability to generate explainable mission plans that satisfy the mission objective while minimizing risk under nominal and off-nominal conditions.

Mohammad Hejase↗

DOE OSTI2024

Engineering Microgrids Amid the Evolving Electrical Distribution System

Non-wires alternatives and microgrid technologies are maturing and present great opportunities for electric utilities to increase the benefits they offer to their customers. They have the potential to decrease the cost of resolving traditional electrical system loading issues, contribute to carbon emissions reductions, and improve the electrical distribution system’s resilience to extreme weather events. The authors of this manuscript present a review of the research on microgrids and their practical applications. This is leveraged with the past work of the authors of this manuscript and other authors to develop specific objectives for microgrids, practical criteria for engineers to consider when deploying microgrids, stochastic methods to optimize microgrid designs, and black start requirements. This guidance is then used for the design of actual networked microgrids being deployed with adaptive boundaries.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2026

Turbofan Engine Power Extraction Demonstration Final Report

As GE Aerospace advances toward a revolutionary step change in propulsion efficiency, the integration and demonstration of new engine architectures and technology systems are essential. The NASA Turbofan Engine Power Extraction Demonstration (PEx), conducted through the Hybrid Thermally Efficient Core (HyTEC) project, aims to develop and demonstrate megawatt-class hybrid electric capability on a modern commercial turbofan engine. The hybrid electric system is critical to meeting the needs of the U.S. aviation industry for next-generational propulsion systems with greater efficiency, durability, and range. This supports energy independence and helps ensure the security and resilience of one of America's largest export industries. The PEx project specifically targets three key objectives: mechanically integrating hybrid electric capability into a commercial turbofan engine, integrating electric machine control with turbofan control for advanced power management, and de-risking performance modeling of future hybrid electric architectures. To mature these technologies to Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 6, a series of electric power system component tests and a baseline engine performance test campaign were conducted. These efforts culminated in an integrated hybrid electric turbofan test campaign demonstrating power extraction, power insertion, and power transfer between spools. Tests of the electric power system were completed at GE Aerospace’s Electrical Power Integrated Systems Center in Dayton, Ohio and engine tests were completed at Peebles Test Operation in Peebles, Ohio. Hybrid electric trade studies extended the demonstrated capability to altitude using the validated cycle model from the PEx test campaigns, allowing for comments on expanded mission benefits not demonstrated in the ground campaign. The knowledge gained from PEx also supports GE Aerospace’s Compact Core Demonstrator as part of HyTEC Phase 2 and ultimately informs the implementation of hybrid electric systems in the next generation of GE Aerospace commercial engine products. This report provides a summary of the program background, test campaigns, trade studies, and insights into the technical maturation required to support future commercial products.

Hybrid Electric↗

DOE OSTI2022

Small Reactors in Microgrids: Technoeconomic Analysis

This report presents the results of technoeconomic analysis that advances understanding of the potential of small modular reactors and microreactors, collectively referred to as small reactors (SRs) in this report, in microgrids. This analysis was conducted using a proxy model for SR in microgrids based on the datapoints that were identified and explored in a predecessor report “Small Reactors in Microgrids: Technical Studies Guidance.” The results and the subsequent comparative analysis in this report show that SRs could be a cost-competitive generation option when capital costs are modeled considering potential economies of scale in sizing. If the CO 2 tax is imposed on carbon fuels, SRs would be even more attractive than gas generators. Then, SRs in microgrids would play a pivotal role in reducing the carbon footprint at the local distribution level. However, it is particularly important to identify the most suitable use cases for early adoption and the right balance of generation mix with other clean technologies as SRs achieve a level of technological and financial maturity.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Building Blocks of Electric Vehicle Deployment: A Guide for Developing Countries

Countries can use electric transportation to help fulfill numerous goals, including greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions targets, local air quality goals, mobility objectives, energy security, and transportation resiliency. Vehicle electrification is a promising pathway to achieving clean energy transitions in the transport sector at scale. As vehicles electrify, the traditionally siloed electricity and transport sectors increasingly converge to create technical, institutional, and economic opportunities and challenges. To navigate this transition effectively, we propose the following foundational pillars or “building blocks” that undergird effective electric vehicle (EV) deployment. Jurisdictions with experience and mature EV markets offer useful lessons learned that may enable developing countries to leapfrog over common roadblocks. Nonetheless, developing countries face distinct challenges collectively, and individually, from developed countries that require careful consideration. From our work around the world, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) have witnessed interest growing in EVs for a variety of reasons. Lao People’s Democratic Republic (PDR), for example, looks toward EVs as a way to use their surplus of hydropower to displace expensive oil. Thailand and Pakistan seek economic development opportunities in EV manufacturing. Cities including Mexico City, Surat, India, and Kingston, Jamaica see the potential of bus electrification to improve local air quality and reduce traffic congestion. Many USAID partner countries in Southeast Asia are trying to understand how to reach ambitious EV deployment targets and implement EV and transportation plans. This pursuit is prompting questions about EV supply equipment (EVSE) standards, tariff design, and business models that affirm the importance of the building blocks outlined in this report.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Climate Drives Modeled Forest Carbon Cycling Resistance and Resilience in the Upper Great Lakes Region, USA

Forests dominate the global terrestrial carbon budget, but their ability to continue doing so in the face of a changing climate is uncertain. A key uncertainty is how forests will respond (resistance) and recover from (resilience) to rising levels of disturbance of varying intensities. This knowledge gap can optimally be addressed by integrating manipulative field experiments with ecophysiological modeling. We used the ED-2.2 model to project carbon fluxes for a northern temperate deciduous forest subjected to a real-world disturbance severity manipulation experiment. ED-2.2 was run for 150 years, starting from near bare ground in 1900, and subjected to three disturbance treatments under an ensemble of climate conditions. Both disturbance severity and climate strongly affected carbon fluxes, and interacted with one another. We then calculated metrics of functional ecosystem stability. Modeled gross primary production exhibited a mean resistance of -0.13, -0.23, and -0.42 (unitless) in response to increasing disturbance severity of 45%, 65%, and 85% mortality, respectively; and resilience of 0.002, 0.004, 0.008 (yr-1) respectively. This pattern held true for other carbon fluxes, meaning that in general simulated GPP declined more initially but recovered more quickly from higher mortality. Notably, however, heterotrophic respiration responded more slowly to disturbance, and its highly variable response was affected by different drivers. This work provides insight into how future conditions might affect the functional stability of mature forests in this region under ongoing climate change and changing disturbance regimes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1991

Next generation earth-to-orbit space transportation systems: Unmanned vehicles and liquid/hybrid boosters

The United States civil space effort when viewed from a launch vehicle perspective tends to categorize into pre-Shuttle and Shuttle eras. The pre-Shuttle era consisted of expendable launch vehicles where a broad set of capabilities were matured in a range of vehicles, followed by a clear reluctance to build on and utilize those systems. The Shuttle era marked the beginning of the U.S. venture into reusable space launch vehicles and the consolidation of launch systems used to this one vehicle. This led to a tremendous capability, but utilized men on a few missions where it was not essential and compromised launch capability resiliency in the long term. Launch vehicle failures, between the period of Aug. 1985 and May 1986, of the Titan 34D, Shuttle Challenger, and the Delta vehicles resulted in a reassessment of U.S. launch vehicle capability. The reassessment resulted in President Reagan issuing a new National Space Policy in 1988 calling for more coordination between Federal agencies, broadening the launch capabilities and preparing for manned flight beyond the Earth into the solar system. As a result, the Department of Defense (DoD) and NASA are jointly assessing the requirements and needs for this nations's future transportation system. Reliability/safety, balanced fleet, and resiliency are the cornerstone to the future. An insight is provided into the current thinking in establishing future unmanned earth-to-orbit (ETO) space transportation needs and capabilities. A background of previous launch capabilities, future needs, current and proposed near term systems, and system considerations to assure future mission need will be met, are presented. The focus is on propulsion options associated with unmanned cargo vehicles and liquid booster required to assure future mission needs will be met.

Hueter, Uwe↗

DOE OSTI2024

Low Power, Radiation Resilient Synchronous Edge Processing for Remote Monitoring

Next-generation space remote sensing systems may be equipped with imaging arrays that sense data at a rate that outstrips the processing capability of any computing hardware that can operate within a satellite’s power budget. This project developed novel convolutional and recurrent neural networks to detect and estimate point-like events amid clutter, and investigated their efficient and accurate implementation on analog in-memory computing systems that are 10-1000× more energy-efficient than digital processors. This project leveraged two memory devices at different levels of technological maturity: a large-scale analog computing prototype using commercial SONOS charge-trap memory, and electrochemical memory (ECRAM) with intrinsic radiation hardness. We experimentally demonstrated end-to-end analog processing of our neural networks on SONOS and characterized the radiation response of both SONOS and ECRAM. We advanced the state-of-the-art in ECRAM precision and reliability, and developed co-design methods to enable accurate long-term operation of SONOS analog accelerators in space radiation environments.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NASA NTRS2021

Climate drives modeled forest carbon cycling resistance and resilience in the Upper Great Lakes Region, USA

Forests dominate the global terrestrial carbon budget, but their ability to continue doing so in the face of a changing climate is uncertain. A key uncertainty is how forests will respond to (resistance) and recover from (resilience) rising levels of disturbance of varying intensities. This knowledge gap can optimally be addressed by integrating manipulative field experiments with ecophysiological modeling. We used the Ecosystem Demography-2.2 (ED-2.2) model to project carbon fluxes for a northern temperate deciduous forest subjected to a real-world disturbance severity manipulation experiment. ED-2.2 was run for 150 years, starting from near bare ground in 1900 (approximating the clear-cut conditions at the time), and subjected to three disturbance treatments under an ensemble of climate conditions. Both disturbance severity and climate strongly affected carbon fluxes such as gross primary production (GPP), and interacted with one another. We then calculated resistance and resilience, two dimensions of ecosystem stability. Modeled GPP exhibited a two-fold decrease in mean resistance across disturbance severities of 45%, 65%, and 85% mortality; conversely, resilience increased by a factor of two with increasing disturbance severity. This pattern held for net primary production and net ecosystem production, indicating a trade-off in which greater initial declines were followed by faster recovery. Notably, however, heterotrophic respiration responded more slowly to disturbance, and its highly variable response was affected by different drivers. This work provides insight into how future conditions might affect the functional stability of mature forests in this region under ongoing climate change and changing disturbance regimes.

Kalyn Dorheim↗