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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling Needs to Support the Reconstruction Strategy of Ukraine

Ukraine has been facing difficult times. Russia started a full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, and has caused huge human and infrastructure losses. As a result of the invasion, more than 8 million people left their homes. The Russian army has targeted Ukrainian energy sources, destroying or damaging over 50% of thermal power generation capacity (coal and gas), 30% of solar generation, and 90% of wind generation. The Russians are also threatening Ukrainian energy security, as they currently control the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant – Europe’s largest. In addition, Russia has destroyed 121,000 buildings, including 5,300 multistory buildings - more buildings than Ukraine built during the past five years. The occupiers destroyed or damaged 343 district heat boiler stations (destroyed 12 / damaged 331) and 8 CHPs (destroyed 4/ damaged 4). There is no doubt that Ukraine will be able to protect its sovereignty and restore its territorial integrity; however, this will be a long process. The Government of Ukraine needs to simultaneously focus on many issues, from waging war to the restoration of electricity, water, and heat supply in the territories close to the front line. In addition to these time-sensitive issues, the government also needs to plan a long term multi-sector strategy for the reconstruction of Ukraine’s economy. Ukraine initiated a broad-based political process for recovery at the International Ukraine Recovery Conference (URC 2022) in Lugano, Switzerland. Prior to URC 2022, Ukraine applied for EU membership on February 28 and was granted the status of candidate country by the European Council on June 23, 2022. More than 40 nations are fully committed to supporting Ukraine throughout its path from early to long-term recovery. In addition, these countries link a successful recovery to Ukraine’s European future (URC, 2022a). The reconstruction process will be long. The government also recognizes that it is not enough to build energy infrastructure back – it should be built back better. The government is committed to building a more sustainable and cleaner energy sector. Energy modeling can provide important insights into paths to decarbonize Ukraine’s economy while rebuilding it after the war. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and the Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (IEF) work on modeling decarbonization scenarios in the energy sector of Ukraine. The teams focus on the heat sector, which includes district heat, autonomous and individual heating, and energy consumption by final energy consumption sectors, including buildings. Since the teams use world-class integrated assessment models, other sectors will be analyzed as well. The purpose of the document is to describe the needs of key Ukrainian ministries in modeling the reconstruction process. The scope of this document is limited to modeling energy consumption by the power and heat sectors, final energy consumption by buildings, and GHG emissions from these two sectors. The rest of this policy memo is organized as follows. After this introduction, Chapter 2 discusses key provisions of the reconstruction strategy with a focus on energy, buildings, heat supply, environment, and European integration aspirations. Section 3 provides an overview of recent developments and key decisions of the Government of Ukraine in the area of energy efficiency and decarbonization. Finally, Section 4 provides key suggestions on how PNNL and IEF can help the Government of Ukraine in developing strategic documents.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

US Perspectives on the Conventional/Nuclear Interactions and the Impacts on Nuclear Escalation Risks and Future Arms Control Prospects

This short paper is organized around a few discrete questions. How have U.S. perspectives on conventional and nuclear interactions evolved in recent years? How have these changing perspectives shaped U.S. thinking on perceived nuclear escalation risks with Russia, both long standing and newly emerged? And finally, what do these U.S. perceptions of interactions and risks mean for future potential arms control either in the conventional or nuclear arena? The answers to these questions appear to show some promise for future work in this area. Conventional and nuclear interactions are increasing, and thus the two domains cannot be kept as deliberately or artificially separated as in the past. There is a growing mutual recognition regarding the interplay between conventional and nuclear capabilities in the strategic stability equation. There is also an increasingly shared recognition in the United States and Russia that nuclear escalation risks are likely to originate in conventional crises or conflict, placing an imperative on some form of conflict prevention procedures at the lower end of the spectrum. This requirement suggests some potential areas for risk reduction measures outside of those traditionally considered in conventional and nuclear arms control over the past several decades.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2024

Perspectives on Next Steps in Arms Control and Non-Proliferation

Much has happened in arms control over the last year as this chapter has been in development. The prospects for arms control as a viable national security tool have, if anything, grown darker. Russia has falsely equated tearing down the remaining arms control edifice with creating potential leverage vis-à-vis its actions in Ukraine. China has failed to update its talking points on being a responsible arms control actor with its massive nuclear force expansion. The United States has stated clearly that it is open for business on arms control and risk reduction, but it unfortunately has no customers in Russia and China. It remains unclear what specifically the United States is selling in terms of what it wants in a potential agreement. Competitive dynamics and an atmosphere of great power competition are driving all parties further away from the table.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2026

On Theories of Change: Rethinking the Ban Treaty and Disarmament Strategies

A week before Israel bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Grossi had lunch with the Financial Times. In the interview, Grossi expressed both optimism and pessimism about the nuclear landscape: he was hopeful about prospects for diplomacy, including with Iran. But he also expressed longer-term concerns about a proliferation cascade and rising nuclear risks, in particular, Russia’s nuclear threats amidst the war in Ukraine. “In the past, this was quite taboo,” he said, “but now people talk about tactical nuclear weapons like something which could be contained or permissible.” Given subsequent events in Iran, along with the expiration of New START in 2026 and expanding nuclear arsenals in Russia and China, pessimism would seem to trump hope for prospects for nuclear disarmament.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2021

History of and Aftermath from the Withdrawal of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty

On February 1, 2019, the United States and Russia withdrew from the three-decades old Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty. Events precipitating the withdrawal were allegations by both the United States and Russia of a variety of treaty violations. Until that point, the treaty had been a centerpiece of arms control and a key agreement of the global security architecture. The absence of such a pillar has the potential destabilize the status quo of arms control, creating significant uncertainty in global nuclear stability and security. In this paper, we present a historical review as overture to an analysis on the impacts of this development on force structure. This analysis examines the changes in U.S., Russian, and Chinese nuclear forces which may occur as a result of the treaty's demise. The article concludes with commentary on potential actions to preserve stability in a post-INF world.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2020

Trends and source apportionment of aerosols in Europe during 1980-2018

Aerosols have significantly affected health, environment, and climate in Europe. Aerosol concentrations have been declining since the 1980s in Europe,mainly owing to a reduction of local aerosol and precursor emissions.Emissions from other source regions of the world, which have been changing rapidly as well, may also perturb the historical and future trends of aerosols and change their radiative impact in Europe. This study examines trends of aerosols in Europe during 1980–2018 and quantifies contributions from 16 source regions using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 with Explicit Aerosol Source Tagging (CAM5-EAST). The simulated near-surface total mass concentration of sulfate, black carbon, and primary organic carbon had a 62 % decrease during 1980–2018. The majority of which was contributed to reductions of local emissions in Europe, and 8 %–9 % was induced by a decrease in emissions from Russia–Belarus–Ukraine. With the decreases in the fractional contribution of local emissions, aerosols transported from other source regions are increasingly important for air quality in Europe. During 1980–2018, the decrease in sulfate loading led to a warming effect of 2.0 W m –2 in Europe, with 12 % coming from changes in non-European sources, especially from North America and Russia–Belarus–Ukraine. According to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios, contributions to the sulfate radiative forcing over Europe from both local European emissions and non-European emissions should decrease at a comparable rate in the next 3 decades, suggesting that future changes in non-European emissions are as important as European emissions for causing possible regional climate change associated with aerosols in Europe.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Contentious narratives and disinformation about nuclear weapons in strategic deterrence and competition: A SOCOM perspective. Part of Section: United States Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) in Emerging Strategic & Geopolitical Challenges: Operational Implications for US Combatant Commands

Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine demonstrates the challenge for strategic deterrence and competition of countering contentious narratives and disinformation about weapons of mass destruction (WMD) during conventional regional wars against a nucleararmed adversary. Moscow uses both tailored, contentious narratives and targeted disinformation about WMD in Ukraine to influence and disrupt local and global perceptions in support of its deterrence and competition objectives vis-à-vis the United States and NATO. Since December 2021, Moscow has made a focal point of chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear weapons in its efforts to establish a permissive environment for its military buildup on the border with Ukraine and then its military intervention. These information tactics also demonstrate an opportunity for US Special Operations Forces (SOF). They are a case study for considering how SOF can contribute to strategic deterrence and competition objectives, specifically countering adversary gray-zone information efforts to alter regional security orders.1 Such a role is in line with the 2022 Special Operations Forces Vision and Strategy, which provides a framework for the evolution of SOF into “a force capable of creating strategic, asymmetric advantages for the nation as a key contributor of integrated deterrence” (United States Special Operations Command, 2022). This paper briefly examines this strategic challenge and SOF opportunity, focusing narrowly on the distinction between contentious narratives and disinformation about nuclear weapons and the role of SOF in countering these gray-zone information tactics. The nuclear dimension of Moscow’s contentious narratives and disinformation in the “special military operation” is of particular interest because it demonstrates the distinction between strategic efforts to influence and disrupt local and global perceptions in Moscow’s favor. This distinction between influence and disruption is less clear with Russia’s contentious narratives and disinformation about chemical and biological weapons in Ukraine, as disinformation about these two types of WMD appears to overwhelm contentious narratives. We believe this distinction is useful for policymakers and warfighters responsible for countering gray-zone information tactics because it provides a framework for crafting tailored responses to contentious narratives and disinformation about nuclear weapons and other WMD. The chapter concludes with a discussion of efforts that could be undertaken by SOF in cooperation with other relevant stakeholders to address this aspect of adversary gray-zone information tactics.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Three different directions in which the European Union could replace Russian natural gas

Russia's invasion of Ukraine fuelled an energy crisis, which considerably impacted Europe given its heavy reliance on Russian natural gas imports. This study uses an ensemble of four global integrated assessment models, which are further soft-linked to two sectoral models, and explores the synergies and trade-offs among three approaches to living without Russian gas in Europe: (a) replacing with other gas imports, (b) boosting domestic energy production, and (c) reducing demand and accelerating energy efficiency. We find that substituting Russian gas from other trade partners would miss an opportunity to accelerate decarbonisation in end-use sectors while risking further fossil-fuel lock-ins, despite featuring the lowest gas price spikes and potentially reducing heating costs for end-users in the near term. Boosting domestic, primarily renewable, energy production on the other hand would instead require considerable investments, potentially burdening consumers. Energy demand reductions, however, could offer considerable space for further emissions cuts at the lowest power-sector investment costs; nonetheless, an energy efficiency-driven strategy would also risk relocation of energy-intensive industries, an aspect of increasing relevance to EU policymakers.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mineral-specific heterogeneous neptunium sorption onto geological repository rocks in oxic and anoxic conditions and various temperatures

Neptunium poses challenges for radioactive wastes management due to its long half-life and ingrowth from americium decay, as well as its high mobility in water in its oxidized forms. Np(V)-bearing aqueous solutions were contacted with polished and crushed gneiss and dolerite from the Yeniseisky site, Russia, which is under consideration as a location for an underground repository, both in oxic and anoxic conditions at 20 and 90 °C. Neptunium sorption on crushed gneiss and dolerite in oxic conditions at 20 °C was quite low, but increased substantially in anoxic conditions. Autoradiography on samples treated at 20 °C revealed that sorbed Np was associated mostly with dark colored iron-bearing minerals, and solvent extraction indicated partial reduction of Np(V) to Np(IV). Sorption of Np from aqueous solutions contacted with dolerite and gneiss at 90 °C was in all cases higher than at the lower temperature. Autoradiography of polished rock samples treated in anoxic conditions at 90 °C revealed that Fe-bearing minerals had 3–4 orders of magnitude more Np sorbed on them than the quartz and feldspar grains. X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy indicated this sorbed Np was present as NpO 2 . This study supports the concept that the geologic conditions present at the planned repository site will retard Np migration.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Equilibrium carbon isotope fractionation factors of hydrocarbons: Semi-empirical force-field method

Here, we have calculated the reduced partition function ratios for carbon isotopes (β-factor) of 67 hydrocarbons (alkanes, alkenes, alkynes, cycloalkanes, and aromatics), including their 267 single-substituted isotopomers. The calculations were performed using the harmonic oscillator – rigid rotator model and the Urey / Bigeleisen-Mayer approach. Normal frequencies of molecular vibrations of the isotopologues were calculated from the molecular structures data and valence field force constants stored in the Light-handled Elucidation of Vibrations (LEV) database elaborated by Dr. Gribov and his colleagues in Russia. The LEV database is constructed from experimental spectroscopic and structural data by solving inverse problems of molecular vibrations. The LEV is internally consistent and the most comprehensive database available to date. The β-factor were calculated in the temperature range of 200–800 K with a 10 K step. Our calculations predict that the β-factors increase with an increasing number of C atoms within the same groups of hydrocarbons (e.g., alkanes). Our calculations also show a general descending order of 13 C enrichments among the different groups of hydrocarbons: cycloalkanes, aromatics, alkenes (double bonds) and isoalkanes, alkanes, alkynes (triple bonds). Position-specific, intramolecular isotope effects within hydrocarbons are determined by the β-factors of C in the different functional groups in the order: quaternary (C), tertiary (methine, CH), secondary (methylene, CH 2 ), primary (methyl, CH 3 ) and double bond (C=C), saturated bond (C - C), triple bond (HC≡). Our calculations on bulk and position-specific carbon isotope β-factors of the hydrocarbons, which are generally consistent with very limited ab initio calculations in the literature, are internally consistent and the most comprehensive to date for future applications to position-specific isotope geochemistry of hydrocarbons.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Pathways for decarbonization of the buildings sector in Ukraine

The paper focuses on Ukraine’s intention to achieve a two-thirds reduction in buildings’ energy consumption for heating and cooling by 2050, concurrently aiming for net zero greenhouse gas emissions and heightened energy security. Here, the study examines the outcomes of retrofitting existing residential, commercial, and public buildings with highly efficient materials, improving construction standards, and transitioning to advanced heating systems. However, Russia’s invasion in 2022 inflicted substantial damage, prompting a shift from retrofit and decarbonization to reconstruction. The Ukrainian government’s Reconstruction Plan emphasizes clean, sustainable, and resilient energy systems. The study employs energy system and integrated assessment models (TIMES-Ukraine and GCAM-Ukraine) to explore scenarios taking into consideration the war, reconstruction, and a net zero CO 2 pathway. Using two models allowed the inter-model comparison. The analysis addresses vital questions on energy resiliency measures and the compounding effects of decarbonization. Findings indicate that Ukraine’s energy goals can be met through strategic retrofitting and economy-wide decarbonization, emphasizing the importance of low-carbon alternatives like district heating with renewable sources. Electrification with renewables and fuel-switching emerges as crucial for achieving building decarbonization. The study offers valuable insights into navigating energy challenges amidst the war and outlines a pathway for Ukraine’s sustainable energy future.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Energy system analysis of cutting off Russian gas supply to the European Union

The reduction of European Union's pipeline gas imports from Russia as a consequence of the Russian war against Ukraine has had severe economy-wide implications for the EU. Using a multisector integrated assessment model (GCAM), we find that a potential complete cut-off of Russian pipeline gas exports to the EU unevenly impacts the energy mix, prices, and trade flows of different subregions within the EU, depending on their access to alternative gas pipelines and LNG infrastructure. Moreover, there are also large changes in the volume and geographical distribution of global gas infrastructure capacity additions and stranded assets. Our results show that by significantly reducing demand for natural gas, the EU Fit-for-55 policy framework already improves resilience against a complete and persistent cut-off of Russian pipeline gas. However, further improvements in energy efficiency and renewable targets could further soften impacts, while bringing climate objectives closer in sight.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Individual doses for super cohort members exposed to atmospheric radioiodine from the Mayak releases with an emphasis on prenatal doses

Time-dependent thyroid doses were reconstructed for 45,837 members of the Southern Urals Population Exposed to Radiation Cohort (SUPER-C) living in the region around the Mayak Production Association facilities in Russia from 131I released to the atmosphere from all relevant exposure pathways. The dose calculations are implemented in a Monte Carlo framework that produces best estimates and stochastic realizations of dose time-histories. The mean thyroid dose from 131I for SUPER-C members was 195 mGy; the median was 65 mGy. Overall, 131I-thyroid doses for about 3.6% of SUPER-C members were larger than 1 Gy. For children born in 1940-1950, the dose was about 10% higher than in previous studies because doses during the prenatal period for 9,117 individuals are included in the current work. Half of the individuals born in the region in 1950–1960 who remained in the study domain through 1972 received 9.4% or more of their total dose during the prenatal period. SUPER-C members residing in areas contaminated by discharges of liquid radioactive releases into the Techa River and the Kyshtym Accident in 1957 received 80% of their thyroid dose from airborne 131I emissions. The uncertainty in the 131I dose estimates is low enough for this approach to be used in regional epidemiological studies.

Dose assessment, 131I, airborne radioactivity, thy↗
DOE OSTI2020

Confirming the absence of nuclear warheads via passive gamma-ray measurements

Arms-control agreements between the United States and Russia negotiated after the end of the Cold War have imposed limits on the number of deployed strategic nuclear weapons. Verification of these agreements has relied on onsite inspections, sometimes supported by radiation detection techniques to confirm the absence of a nuclear warhead when ambiguities arise. So far, these measurements have sought to detect neutron emissions associated with the presence of plutonium, but they would be inadequate for uranium devices. In an effort to offer instruments that could be used to confirm the absence of both plutonium and uranium weapons, here we propose an inspection system that uses only passive gamma radiation detection techniques. Such a system would be particularly valuable for next-generation arms-control agreements that limit total numbers of weapons and would involve containerized items in storage. We conducted extensive Monte Carlo simulations to support the development of a verification protocol and detection algorithm. Here, we demonstrate the viability of the technique using standard laboratory check sources and MCNP simulations for simplified configurations of special nuclear material.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2021

On the physics potential to study the gluon content of proton and deuteron at NICA SPD

The Spin Physics Detector (SPD) is a future multipurpose experiment foreseen to run at the NICA collider, which is currently under construction at the Joint Institute for Nuclear Research (JINR, Dubna, Russia). The physics program of the experiment is based on collisions of longitudinally and transversely polarized protons and deuterons at √s up to 27 GeV and luminosity up to 10 32 cm –2 s –1 . SPD will operate as a universal facility for the comprehensive study of the unpolarized and polarized gluon content of the nucleon, using complementary probes such as: charmonia, open-charm, and prompt-photon production processes. Furthermore, the aim of this work is to provide a thorough review of the physics objectives that can potentially be addressed at SPD, underlining related theoretical aspects and discussing relevant experimental results when available. Among different pertinent phenomena particular attention is drawn to the study of the gluon helicity, gluon Sivers and Boer-Mulders functions in the nucleon, as well as the gluon transversity distribution in the deuteron, via the measurement of single and double spin asymmetries.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Factors influencing recent trends in retail electricity prices in the United States

This study analyzes the primary drivers of recent state-level trends in U.S. retail electricity prices. We summarize pricing trends, explore descriptive relationships, and employ regression models to quantify the influence of various factors. Although the recent national rise in retail prices has largely tracked inflation, state-level trends vary widely. We identify a number of factors that explain trends in subsets of states. States with the greatest price increases typically exhibited shrinking customer loads—partially linked to growth in net metered behind-the-meter solar—and had renewables portfolio standards (RPS) in concert with relatively costly incremental renewable energy supplies. By contrast, recent utility-scale wind and solar deployment that occurred outside RPS programs (but that benefited from tax incentives) had no discernible impact on increased retail prices. Hurricanes, storms and wildfires also contributed to sizable price increases in some states, most notably in California, where wildfire risk mitigation and liability insurance were major cost drivers. Fluctuations in natural gas prices—particularly following the onset of the Ukraine-Russia war—further contributed to sharp price increases through 2022–2023 in many states, with moderation in 2024. The relative influence of these factors varies across states and over time, and relationships may change in the future. Nonetheless, the findings underscore the diverse set of price determinants and highlight the need for continued research to inform effective policy and ensure customer affordability.

Customer load↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhanced Simulation of Atmospheric Blocking in a High‐Resolution Earth System Model: Projected Changes and Implications for Extreme Weather Events

Atmospheric blocking is closely linked to the occurrence of extreme weather events. However, low-resolution Earth system models often underestimate the frequency of blocking, undermining confidence in future projections. Here, in this study, we use the high-resolution Community Earth System Model (CESM-HR; 25 km atm and 10 km ocean) to show that CESM-HR reduces biases in atmospheric blocking for both winter and summer, particularly for events lasting longer than 10 days. This improvement is partly due to reduced sea surface temperature biases at higher resolution. Additionally, applying a bias correction to the 500 hPa geopotential height further enhances blocking frequency simulations, highlighting the crucial role of the mean state. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario, CESM-HR projects a decrease in wintertime blocking over regions such as the Euro-Atlantic and Chukchi-Alaska, consistent with previous studies. In contrast, summer blocking is expected to become more frequent and persistent, driven by weakened zonal winds. The blocking center shifts from historical locations over Scandinavia and eastern Russia to central Eurasia, significantly increasing blocking over the Ural region. Summer blocking frequency over the Scandinavia-Ural region may eventually surpass historical winter blocking over the Euro-Atlantic. This increase in summer blocking could exacerbate summer heatwaves in a warming climate, making severe heatwaves, like those observed recently, more common in the future.

Atmospheric blocking↗
DOE OSTI2020

Carbon footprint of global natural gas supplies to China

As natural gas demand surges in China, driven by the coal-to-gas switching policy, widespread attention is focused on its impacts on global gas supply-demand rebalance and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Here, for the first time, we estimate well-to-city-gate GHG emissions of gas supplies for China, based on analyses of field-specific characteristics of 104 fields in 15 countries. Results show GHG intensities of supplies from 104 fields vary from 6.2 to 43.3 g CO 2 eq MJ -1 . Due to the increase of GHG-intensive gas supplies from Russia, Central Asia, and domestic shale gas fields, the supply-energy-weighted average GHG intensity is projected to increase from 21.7 in 2016 to 23.3 CO 2 eq MJ -1 in 2030, and total well-to-city-gate emissions of gas supplies are estimated to grow by ~3 times. While securing gas supply is a top priority for the Chinese government, decreasing GHG intensity should be considered in meeting its commitment to emission reductions.

03 NATURAL GAS↗