Results for “Uncertainty quantification” — Page 2

NASA NTRS1992

Spacecraft thermal control coatings: Comparison between flight results obtained on LDEF and MIR

The COMES experiment was installed outside of the MIR space station during an extravehicular activity. The experiment was exposed to vacuum, atomic oxygen, and ultraviolet radiation (UV) for 1.1 years. Due to a lack of knowledge about the spacecrafts actual attitude, there is a large uncertainty in the atomic oxygen fluence and the UV dose that was experienced by COMES. Additionally, contaminants of many different origins were observed on the COMES samples.

Jean-Claude Guillaumon↗

NASA NTRS2026

Polarized Resonant Soft X-ray Scattering (P-RSoXS) as a New Technique for Characterizing Amorphous Astromaterials

In the coming years, samples will be returned from several asteroids, the lunar surface, and the first material returned directly from the Martian surface. Previous in-situ and remote studies indicate these samples will contain abundant amorphous or weakly crystalline materials. However, detailed characterization and quantification of these amorphous materials remains challenging. Conventional techniques, including electron microscopy and X-ray diffraction, provide important information on material structure, but are generally limited to crystalline materials. Polarized resonant soft X-ray scattering (P-RSoXS) is a synchrotron-based X-ray scattering technique that has been used to characterize and quantify weakly crystalline systems, including soft materials. This research aims to translate this technique to geologic and extraterrestrial materials, building off the knowledge of using P-RSoXS to interrogate soft materials. P-RSoXS is well-suited to interrogate geologic materials, which are often multiphase, heterogeneous systems with crystalline and amorphous components, and domain sizes on the order of tens of nanometers. It is anticipated that future work will help reveal new chemical and structural information in geologic materials. Maturation of this preliminary work to develop P-RSoXS to characterize astromaterial-relevant samples will provide new understanding of the secondary processes responsible for the development of amorphous astromaterials and further elucidate our knowledge of the geologic history and past alteration processes.

Joshua H Litofsky↗

NASA NTRS2026

Predicting Operational Performance of xEMU Boot at Lunar South Pole Temperatures using Thermal Desktop ®

The spacesuit boots that will be used on Artemis lunar south pole surface missions will be exposed to extremely cold temperatures (down to ~50 K). To assess the performance of the government’s Exploration Extravehicular Mobility Unit (xEMU) lunar boot in these permanently shadowed regions, testing was performed at the Jet Propulsion Lab (JPL) in the Cryogenic Ice Transfer, Acquisition Development, and Excavation Laboratory (CITADEL) thermal vacuum (TVAC) chamber. This paper documents the data analysis, thermal boot model correlation, and operational predictions conducted using data from the xEMU CITADEL TVAC test. Expected thermal conductances within the boot and between the boot and environment were calculated from test data, which was then used as an initial guess for conductances within a Thermal Desktop (TD) model. Correlation of the TD model using the internal SOLVER feature was performed across 10 different test points which varied external temperature, internal boot ventilation flowrate, and contact pressure. Operational performance at the lunar south pole was then predicted using results from the correlated model. While the predictions provide evidence for acceptable performance of the boots at the 100K environment test point, there is still substantial uncertainty in performance, especially at the 48K test point. This uncertainty is due in part to testing limitations such as contacting the foot to a hard metal plate rather than granular regolith, and model limitations such as the lack of a realistic foot model. These limitations and their impacts are addressed in detail in this paper. The results of this test series and model correlation underscore the importance of additional improved testing and modeling for characterizing the expected thermal resistance between the outside of the boot and the lunar surface.

Spacesuit↗

NASA NTRS1993

Telescope Pointing for GOPEX

In order for photons emitted by the GOPEX lasers to "be detected by Galileo's camera, the telescopes at Table Mountain Observatory and Starfire Optical Range had to be pointed in the right direction within a tolerance less than the beam divergence. At both sites nearby stars were used as pointing references. The technical challenge was to ensure that the transmission direction and the star positions were specified in exactly the same coordinate system; given this assurance, neither the uncertainty in the star catalog positions nor the difficulty in offset pointing was expected to exceed the pointing error budget. The correctness of the pointing scheme was verified by the success of GOPEX.

W M Owen, Jr↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

PROBABALISTIC RISK ANALYSIS AND THERMAL MARGIN PROCESS FOR AN INFLATABLE AEROSHELL

Atmospheric entry vehicle thermal protection systems (TPS) are margined due to the uncertainties that exist in entry aeroheating environments and the thermal response of the materials and structures. Traditional approaches typically over-margin TPS and offer very little insight into the risk of over-temperature during flight. A probabilistic margin process can be used to apply thermal margin to an aeroshell based on a rigorously calculated risk of failure. This probabilistic margin process allows engineers to make informed aeroshell design, entry-trajectory modifications, and risk trades while preventing excessive margin from being applied. This methodology can also be applied to other TPS applications, hot structures, and other engineering disciplines.

Steven A Tobin↗

NASA NTRS1991

Ulysses navigation

Ulysses, a cooperative NASA and ESA project, measures charged and neutral particles, magnetic fields, and electromagnetic wave emissions from the Sun's polar regions and the out of elliptic heliospheric environment. ESA supplied the spacecraft and one half of the instruments, and is in control of the spacecraft and its attitude. NASA supplied the power supply, one half of the instruments, the launch vehicle, and tracks the spacecraft and performs the navigation. Orbit determination results mapped to the time of Jupiter's arrival show improved accuracy and consistency over the course of the mission to date. Solar radiation pressure model uncertainties are major contributors to orbit determination errors, but are being estimated more accurately as data are accumulated.

H. J. Gordon↗

NASA NTRS2026

Electron Velocity Moments in the Solar Wind. I. Calibration of the Wind 3DP EESA Low Detector

Calibrated measurements of electron velocity distribution functions (VDFs) are necessary to characterize fluid and kinetic processes in weakly collisional and nearly collisionless plasmas such as the solar wind. Therefore, we analyzed 3,996,051 electron VDFs observed by the Wind 3DP thermal electron detector near 1 astronomical unit (au) between January 1, 2005 and November 25, 2017. The data were calibrated for each electron VDF to produce accurate velocity moments in the solar wind. This is the first full solar cycle coverage electron velocity moment dataset in the near-Earth solar wind. Herein (Paper I) we discuss the calibration process/algorithms and the velocity moment constraints, uncertainties, and resulting public dataset. In the second paper (Paper II), we statistically analyze the electron velocity moment dataset.

plasmas↗

NASA NTRS1998

Summary of Research Report

Ten papers, published in various publications, on buckling, and the effects of imperfections on various structures are presented. These papers are: (1) Buckling mode localization in elastic plates due to misplacement in the stiffner location; (2) On vibrational imperfection sensitivity on Augusti's model structure in the vicinity of a non-linear static state; (3) Imperfection sensitivity due to elastic moduli in the Roorda Koiter frame; (4) Buckling mode localization in a multi-span periodic structure with a disorder in a single span; (5) Prediction of natural frequency and buckling load variability due to uncertainty in material properties by convex modeling; (6) Derivation of multi-dimensional ellipsoidal convex model for experimental data; (7) Passive control of buckling deformation via Anderson localization phenomenon; (8)Effect of the thickness and initial im perfection on buckling on composite cylindrical shells: asymptotic analysis and numerical results by BOSOR4 and PANDA2; (9) Worst case estimation of homology design by convex analysis; (10) Buckling of structures with uncertain imperfections - Personal perspective.

Isaac Elishakoff↗

NASA NTRS1993

Failure Modes of Reduced-Order Orbit Determination Filters and Their Remedies

Ways in which failure can occur in reduced-order, orbit determination filter, error covariance calculations are discussed. In the context of this article, reduced-order filters denote nonoptimal filters which include fixed levels of uncertainty in some parameters of the measurement models or in the spacecraft dynamical model which are not explicitly estimated in the filter equations. Failure is defined as an increase in the orbit determination covariance with the addition of data or as an unreasonable growth in the covariance with time, i.e., nonasymptotic behavior of the covariance. Some simple, known cases of failure are discussed along with their traditional remedies. In addition, more modern remedies are discussed which are currently under development at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The article first describes the known problems of reduced-order filters when they are employed for orbit determination, and their traditional remedies. Then, having defined these, the relevancy and desirability of the more modern remedies are made apparent.

D J Scheeres↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Harness Thermal Heat Loss Measurement for a Lunar Surface-Deployed LEMS Artemis III Payload

The Lunar Environment Monitoring Station (LEMS) is an autonomous, survive-the-lunar-night seismic suite to be deployed on the Lunar surface by the Artemis III crew and designed to operate continuously for two years. It will see the extremes of the Lunar south pole thermal environment where surface temperatures range from -200°C to +20°C and where nighttime duration is at least 354 hours. Given power and mass constraints, the thermal system is limited to 2.5 Watts of heat during the lunar night. The electrical harnessing named the Signal and Power Passthrough (SAPP) was designed to minimize heat loss while meeting power and signal integrity requirements. To mitigate risk due to uncertainty associated with the harnessing materials, routing, and tie-downs, a flight-like thermal conductance test was performed to measure the heat loss. The test methodology, results, and model correlation are presented.

TVAC↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Harness Thermal Heat Loss Measurement for A Lunar Surface-Deployed LEMS Artemis III Payload

The Lunar Environment Monitoring Station (LEMS) is an autonomous, survive-the-lunar-night seismic suite to be deployed on the Lunar surface by the Artemis III crew and designed to operate continuously for two years. It will see the extremes of the Lunar south pole thermal environment where surface temperatures range from -200°C to +20°C and where nighttime duration is at least 354 hours. Given power and mass constraints, the thermal system is limited to 2.5 Watts of heat during the lunar night. The electrical harnessing named the Signal and Power Passthrough (SAPP) was designed to minimize heat loss while meeting power and signal integrity requirements. To mitigate risk due to uncertainty associated with the harnessing materials, routing, and tie-downs, a flight-like thermal conductance test was performed to measure the heat loss. The test methodology, results, and model correlation are presented.

Thermal↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Harness Thermal Heat Loss Measurement for A Lunar Surface-Deployed LEMS Artemis III Payload

The Lunar Environment Monitoring Station (LEMS) is an autonomous, survive-the-lunar-night seismic suite to be deployed on the Lunar surface by the Artemis III crew and designed to operate continuously for two years. It will see the extremes of the Lunar south pole thermal environment where surface temperatures range from -200°C to +20°C and where nighttime duration is at least 354 hours. Given power and mass constraints, the thermal system is limited to 2.5 Watts of heat during the lunar night. The electrical harnessing named the Signal and Power Passthrough (SAPP) was designed to minimize heat loss while meeting power and signal integrity requirements. To mitigate risk due to uncertainty associated with the harnessing materials, routing, and tie-downs, a flight-like thermal conductance test was performed to measure the heat loss. The test methodology, results, and model correlation are presented.

TVAC↗

NASA NTRS2026

Thermochemically-Closed Sonic-Flow Inversion for Enthalpy and Temperature in Multispecies Arc-Jet Flows

A thermochemically-closed sonic-flow inversion framework (TSIF) is developed to infer bulk enthalpy and total temperature upstream of a choked nozzle in arc-jet flows. The formulation recasts a pressure-rise total enthalpy quantification technique as an inverse problem in characteristic-velocity c * space using measured mass flow rate, upstream total pressure, gas composition, and nozzle throat geometry as inputs. Unlike calorimetric energy-balance approaches or optical diagnostics, the method relies primarily on routinely measured facility quantities combined with explicit thermochemical closure. Thermochemical states are obtained using NASA’s open-source Chemical Equilibrium with Applications (CEA) code, enabling construction of a chemistry-consistent relation between characteristic velocity, total enthalpy, and total temperature under equilibrium or frozen assumptions. A discharge coefficient is self-calibrated using cold-flow (arc-off) operation data and applied to hot-flow (arc-on) measurements, enabling upstream losses to be accounted for without empirical correlations. The framework is applied to air, N 2 , and CO 2 –N 2 arc-jet flows and demonstrates expected trends for the inferred thermochemical states as function of arc power, specific energy input, mass-flow, heater configuration, and test gas. In the air limit, under equilibrium assumptions, the method recovers the classical high-enthalpy asymptotic correlation of Winovich with a mean residual of 4.4%, demonstrating compatibility with established sonic-flow scaling, while extending applicability to arbitrary multi-species mixtures and non-equilibrium chemistry. The framework provides a mixture-flexible methodology for determining bulk thermochemical states in modern arc-jet environments using routine facility pressure, mass-flow, gas-composition, and nozzle-geometry information together with a cold-flow calibration.

stagnation heat flux↗

NASA NTRS2026

Thermochemically-Closed Sonic-Flow Inversion for Enthalpy and Temperature in Multispecies Arc-Jet Flows

A thermochemically-closed sonic-flow inversion framework (TSIF) is developed to infer bulk enthalpy and total temperature upstream of a choked nozzle in arc-jet flows. The formulation recasts a pressure-rise total enthalpy quantification technique as an inverse problem in characteristic-velocity c * space using measured mass flow rate, upstream total pressure, gas composition, and nozzle throat geometry as inputs. Unlike calorimetric energy-balance approaches or optical diagnostics, the method relies primarily on routinely measured facility quantities combined with explicit thermochemical closure. Thermochemical states are obtained using NASA’s open-source Chemical Equilibrium with Applications (CEA) code, enabling construction of a chemistry-consistent relation between characteristic velocity, total enthalpy, and total temperature under equilibrium or frozen assumptions. A discharge coefficient is self-calibrated using cold-flow (arc-off) operation data and applied to hot-flow (arc-on) measurements, enabling upstream losses to be accounted for without empirical correlations. The framework is applied to air, N 2 , and CO 2 –N 2 arc-jet flows and demonstrates expected trends for the inferred thermochemical states as function of arc power, specific energy input, mass-flow, heater configuration, and test gas. In the air limit, under equilibrium assumptions, the method recovers the classical high-enthalpy asymptotic correlation of Winovich with a mean residual of 4.4%, demonstrating compatibility with established sonic-flow scaling, while extending applicability to arbitrary multi-species mixtures and non-equilibrium chemistry. The framework provides a mixture-flexible methodology for determining bulk thermochemical states in modern arc-jet environments using routine facility pressure, mass-flow, gas-composition, and nozzle-geometry information together with a cold-flow calibration.

inviscid theory↗

NASA NTRS2026

Recommended Practices in Laser-Induced Fluorescence (LIF) Diagnostics for Electric Propulsion

Laser-induced fluorescence (LIF) spectroscopy uses Doppler-shifted laser photons to excite a bound electron transition in an atom or ion, with subsequent fluorescence emission detected in order to measure the local velocity distribution function (VDF) and/or particle density. Due to its non-invasive nature, high spatial resolution, and acceptable difficulty of implementation, LIF has become a favored diagnostic for electric propulsion (EP) plasmas, particularly in the study of Hall thrusters. This paper presents recommended best practices for LIF measurements in electric thrusters, drawn from over three decades of implementation heritage in the EP community. Focusing on both single-photon LIF (typically used to measure VDFs) and two-photon LIF (TALIF, typically used to determine densities), the paper covers selection of atomic transitions to target, experimental setups, and interpretation of data. A number of special topics and advanced applications are discussed, including uncertainty analysis, techniques for high-speed measurements, and applications to a variety of propellants.

plasma plume↗

NASA NTRS2023

Satellite characterization of global stratospheric sulfate aerosols released by Tonga volcano

Large volcanic eruptions create an enhanced layer of sulfate aerosols in the stratosphere. These sulfuric acid droplets persist for many months, altering the climate and stratospheric chemistry. Sulfate aerosols scatter sunlight back to space, cooling the surface of the Earth and absorb outgoing thermal radiation, heating the stratosphere. The calculation of the climate impact of sulfate aerosols depends on their physical properties such as droplet size and chemical composition. These properties are not well known, and this uncertainty contributes to the errors in climate model predictions. Here we derive the first empirical formula that predicts the composition of stratospheric sulfate aerosols from volcanic eruptions from the air temperature and water vapor pressure. Measurements of atmospheric infrared transmittance of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai sulfate aerosol plume by the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (ACE) satellite were analyzed to determine composition (weight percent of sulfuric acid) and median particle radius. These data are supplemented by measurements of the Raikoke and Nabro eruptions. Our analysis allows the properties of volcanic aerosols in the stratosphere to be predicted reliably in atmospheric models.

P Bernath↗

NASA NTRS2022

Exploration of an Adaptive Routine for Battery Modeling

The purpose of this document is to explore the use of adaptive routines in battery modeling. The adaptive routines consist of real-time state estimators combined with battery parameter model components that are adjusted in real-time as battery data becomes available. Several aspects are explored. It is shown that model parameter identification is possible for simple battery models using available input/output data measurements. The online system identification used is recursive least squares. Model identification may be combined with a state observer such as the extended Kalman filter or the unscented Kalman filter to form an adaptive model combined with state estimation. However, such a combination is found to be problematic due to uncertainty, observability and stability issues. This paper is organized as follows. Section 1 introduces adaptive routines and possible roles they play in battery modeling. In Section 2 real-time parameter identification is described with results based on battery data. Section 3 reviews various state estimators and results using a simple battery model. In Section 4 parameter identification and state estimation are combined to form an adaptive routine. Finally, in Section 5 conclusions are drawn and future work is suggested.

Adaptive↗

NASA NTRS1990

Interactions Between the Space Station and the Environment: A Preliminary Assessment of EMI

A review of the interactions between proposed Space Station systems/payloads and the environment that contribute to electromagnetic interference was performed. Seven prime sources of interference have been identified. These are: The Space Station power system; active experiments such as beam injection; ASTROMAG; ram and wake density gradients; pick up ions produced by vented or offgassed clouds; waves produced by current loops that include the plasma and structure; arcing from high voltage solar arrays (or possible ESD in polar orbit). This review indicates that: minimizing leakage current from the 20 kHz power system to the structure; keeping the surfaces of the Space Station structure, arrays, and radiators nonconducting; minimizing venting of payloads or systems to non-operational periods; careful placement of payloads sensitive to magnetic field perturbations or wake noise; and designing an operational timeline compatible with experiment requirement are the most effective means of minimizing the effects of this interference. High degrees of uncertainty exist in the estimates of magnitudes of gas emission induced EMI, radiation of 20 kHz and harmonics, ASTROMAG induced interference, and arc threshold/frequency of the solar array. These processes demand further attention so that mitigation efforts are properly calibrated.

G B Murphy↗