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At least 37 records · Page 2

Techno-Economic Analysis of Data-Driven and Transactive Approaches for Resilience Enhancement

As extreme weather events lead to more frequent power outages, understanding and enhancing grid resilience is critical to mitigating economic losses and non-energy impacts from service disruptions. Here, this study introduces a novel techno-economic analysis framework for evaluating resilience enhancement mechanisms. The framework combines grid response modeling with a co-simulation approach and valuation methodology to provide a comprehensive assessment. We apply this framework to a realistic case study of the Texas grid during Winter Storm Uri in February 2021. Two advanced resilience strategies are analyzed: a data-driven rolling outage mechanism and a transactive energy (TE) based allocation scheme. The rolling outage scheme selectively serves customers based on real-time curtailment needs, while the TE scheme allows customers to trade energy allocations according to their preferences. Our findings show that both the rolling outage and TE schemes significantly outperform conventional methods (i.e. controlled outages) by reducing the amount of energy not supplied to customers by 41% and 64%, respectively. These approaches also enhance flexibility and customer satisfaction, while improving energy utilization for greater resilience. Additionally, they maintain thermal comfort about 3.5 times better and substantially lower customer risk exposure. A key contribution of this study is addressing both utility and customer perspectives while considering both energy and non-energy impacts. The techno-economic analysis indicates that implementing these resilience enhancement strategies would incur an additional 1.1Bto1.6B in utility costs but has the potential to avoid 17.3Bto18B of customer losses as compared to existing solutions, thereby underscoring the value of investing in advanced resilience, as it provides significant societal benefits to customers.

42 ENGINEERING

Optimizing cost-effective and benchmarked industry standards to quantify nutrient bioextraction by seaweed

Interest in the utility of seaweed farms to mitigate coastal eutrophication, or nutrient loading, has grown commensurate with the recent rise of the farmed seaweed industry in the U.S. But economic valuation of this ecosystem service remains elusive in part because of challenges in quantifying this spatiotemporally variable biological process with reproducible and comparable metrics. Regulatory bodies that permit wastewater discharge or lease area for aquaculture farms require water quality testing and reporting of dissolved total nitrogen (N) in nearshore marine environments. These metrics must meet EPA standards for testing and reporting (e.g., Total Kjeldahl Nitrogen - TKN). However, these metrics are inherently highly variable over space and time in dynamic nearshore systems, and expensive to evaluate with sufficient breadth to constrain this variance, creating a critical bottleneck to direct quantification of farmed seaweed net uptake rates in situ.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Master Services Agreement - Flexible Feeder/Distribution System Support: Cooperative Research and Development (Final Report)

PGE will engage NREL on a broad range of projects related to the integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) into the utility's operations. This portfolio of work could include projects focused on DER adoption models, advanced distribution management system (ADMS) and distributed energy management system (DERMS) design, DER dispatch strategy development, and DER valuation framework development. Additional topics could include long-term energy planning, renewable energy, energy efficiency and demand-side management. As well as technology evaluations and design guidance for building retrofits and new construction projects, energy and energy infrastructure planning, policies, and markets (and their analysis), energy storage, energy security and resilience (including energy system-related cybersecurity), transportation and mobility, technology integration analysis. Additionally, other assistance as requested by PGE consistent with NREL’s expertise.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Valuing the Future Electric Grid: A Bid-Based Approach

Energy storage resources (ESRs) and other zero marginal cost (ZMC) resources have unique characteristics that are not fully captured in today’s electricity planning and operations modeling tools. Because the modeling assumptions used in these tools are simplified approximations of how operations and investment decisions occur in the real-world, accurately representing cost and operational characteristics are key for determining how these resources impact price formation. Questions such as—Where should we build new transmission? Will a small modular reactor earn enough revenue to participate in the future electric grid? Is retrofitting a coal plant with carbon capture technology economically feasible?—all require accurate electricity prices, which aren’t available from today’s electricity planning and operations modeling tools. As an example, production cost models (PCMs) are heavily utilized tools that determine the cost and reliability of the electric system. However, as PCMs were developed to help thermal generators manage their fuel inventories, production cost modeling is largely based on fuel prices. Because ESRs do not incur fuel costs, they are often modeled as ZMC resources. In reality, ESRs incur opportunity costs as well as technology-specific (degradation) costs that are non-trivial to calculate but are important for price formation. In this research, we identify options to incorporate more realistic opportunity and degradation costs in ESR bidding algorithms. Expanding available bidding assumptions allows energy system modelers to develop more accurate economic valuations for ESRs, leading to more accurate price formation from leading energy system modeling tools.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Empirical Indicators of Transmission Value in the Southeast United States

Concurrent differences in energy price between different parts of the electric grid are a key indicator of the value of additional transmission. In areas without a wholesale electricity market, such as the Southeast, an alternative indicator to price is the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s (FERC) system lambda data. This economic metric represents the minimized marginal production costs of thermal generators, including fuel and other variable operation and maintenance expenses. Balancing Authorities report a single system lambda for their entire balancing area. Most Southeastern lambdas exhibit sufficient price variation to support a transmission valuation analysis, although incomplete accounting of congestion costs or scarcity rents during peak load hours may underestimate the true value of transmission capacity. With transmission value defined as the annual average hourly absolute price difference between two regions and FERC’s system lambda data used as a price proxy, we find the following results in the Southeast region during 2012-2023 (reported in $\$2024$/MWh): Intra‐regional findings: Annual averages historically span $\$2$–$\$28$/MWh and average $\$12$/MWh in SERTP and span $\$4$–$\$19$/MWh and average $\$9$/MWh in FRCC, disregarding transmission value driven by anomalous data. The ranges of transmission value reported here are large, spanning an order of magnitude in some cases. Much of this variation is driven by year-to-year changes, with 2022 having a particularly high intra-regional transmission value due to elevated natural gas prices. Inter‐regional corridors: Annual average transmission values across three broader regions range from $\$6$ to $\$28$/MWh with a long-term average of $\$11$/MWh. Much of the transmission value is concentrated in a small portion of hours. Across all regions, severe weather—particularly polar vortex events in January 2018, February 2021, and December 2022—drives the largest price spreads. Seasonal patterns also emerge, with summer afternoons and fall mornings contributing consistently to transmission value, as for example between MISO and SOCO in 2023.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Techno-Economic, Feasibility, and Life Cycle Analysis of Renewable Propane: 2025 Update

To clarify the current and future landscape for renewable propane (RP) production, this work evaluates the value proposition of recovering RP from existing and planned hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) biorefineries and surveys emerging technologies under development or deployment. HEFA biorefineries co-produce a propane-rich fuel gas stream, normally used to meet HEFA process heat requirements, from which propane can be recovered and sold to create an additional revenue stream alongside liquid transportation fuels such as renewable diesel (RD) and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). This report updates and extends a 2022 analysis of RP recovery from HEFA facilities by escalating capital and operating costs to 2024 prices, incorporating recent policy developments (including the Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit), evaluating RP recovery for both RD- and SAF-focused HEFA facilities at two scales (3,000 and 75,000 barrels per day of feedstock), and quantifying the impact of RP recovery on HEFA liquid-fuel carbon intensity (CI) and associated tax credits using the 45ZCF-GREET model. For a 3,000 BPD RD-focused HEFA facility, approximately 3.5 million gallons per year (MGPY) of RP can be recovered; in this base case, the estimated payback period is 18 months based on the total installed cost of the RP recovery equipment and 36 months based on the total capital investment for the entire RP recovery project. The payback period is slightly shorter for the analogous SAF-focused configuration (approximately 4.3 MGPY RP). Sensitivity analysis shows that CAPEX magnitude, RP recovery plant scale, and CI-driven tax credit valuations are the dominant determinants of project viability. RP recovery may increase the CI of HEFA liquid fuels, which can reduce liquid-fuel tax credits (a key revenue stream for the HEFA biorefinery) and lengthen payback periods. However, RP recovery generally remains economically favorable across a wide range of plausible scenarios and market conditions. The report also summarizes emerging pathways that could expand future RP supply.

09 BIOMASS FUELS

Greenhouse gas emissions reduction strategies that maximize portfolio-wide life cycle cost reduction, resilience, and environmental justice benefits

While strategies to achieve net-zero emissions at an individual site are well understood, new analysis methods are required for organizations seeking to achieve net-zero across multiple facilities, each with concurrent priority goals. At a portfolio level, distinct locations present varied challenges that cannot be addressed through singular solutions, and competing goals can take precedence with the assumption that net-zero emissions strategies deter from energy resilience and cost savings, therefore negatively impacting nearby communities. This study tests these assumptions by analyzing 16 diverse sites (varying in size, climate, and energy use) to identify strategies that reduce emissions and assess the impact these strategies have on life cycle costs, resilience, and communities with environmental justice concerns. Methods were developed to approximate missing information essential to net-zero evaluation. Established methods were augmented to evaluate life cycle costs, resilience, and environmental justice impacts across a set of strategies and accommodate the multi-criteria analyses. Potential benefits from identified strategies were quantified using site characteristics and a set of corresponding metrics. The net-zero analysis found that 11 sites could use on-site strategies to eliminate all but 2% of emissions generated. The remaining emissions can be offset, for instance through sequestration, executed at the portfolio scale. On-site carbon-free energy was found to reduce 51% of emissions across all sites; efficiency reduced 19% of emissions; sequestration 16%; procured carbon-free energy 15%; fuel switching 1.6%; and fleet electrification 1.3%. Building electrification, however, increased emissions by 4.4%. Different strategies also provide cost, resilience, and/or environmental justice benefits—the degree to which varies with individual site conditions. The findings indicate an advantage to considering the strategies as a comprehensive set, which leads to co-benefits, both in the ability to achieve net-zero goals and in advancing other goals. The results present the case for comprehensive advanced planning at the portfolio level to prioritize investments that will balance the minimization of emissions and life cycle cost with the maximization of resilience and environmental justice benefits. The novel methods for evaluation and integration, valuation of benefits, and consideration at the portfolio scale allow organizations to select investments that simultaneously address multiple key priorities.

Net-Zero Emissions

Residual Gas Analyzer Calibration

A technique which employs known gas mixtures to calibrate the residual gas analyzer (RGA) is described. The mass spectra from the RGA are recorded for each gas mixture. This mass spectra data and the mixture composition data each form a matrix. From the two matrices the calibration matrix may be computed. The matrix mathematics requires the number of calibration gas mixtures be equal to or greater than the number of gases included in the calibration. This technique was evaluated using a mathematical model of an RGA to generate the mass spectra. This model included shot noise errors in the mass spectra. Errors in the gas concentrations were also included in the valuation. The effects of these errors was studied by varying their magnitudes and comparing the resulting calibrations. Several methods of evaluating an actual calibration are presented. The effects of the number of gases in then, the composition of the calibration mixture, and the number of mixtures used are discussed.

R H Lilienkamp

Development and optimization of a nonlinear multiparameter model for the human operator

A systematic method is proposed for the development, optimization, and comparison of controller-models for the human operator. This is suitable for any designed model, even multiparameter systems. A random search technique is chosen for the parameter optimization. As valuation criteria for the quality of the model development the criterion function - the comparison between the input and output functions of the human operator and those of the model - and the most important characteristic values and functions of the statistical signal theory are used. A nonlinear multiparameter model for the human operator is being designed which considers the complex input information rate per time in a single display. The nonlinear features of the model are effected by a modified threshold element and a decision algorithm. Different display-configurations as well as various transfer functions of the controlled element are explained by different optimized parameter-combinations.

Johannsen, G.

Ambiguity resolution for satellite Doppler positioning systems

A test for ambiguity resolution was derived which was the most powerful in the sense that it maximized the probability of a correct decision. When systematic error sources were properly included in the least squares reduction process to yield an optimal solution, the test reduced to choosing the solution which provided the smaller valuation of the least squares loss function. When systematic error sources were ignored in the least squares reduction, the most powerful test was a quadratic form comparison with the weighting matrix of the quadratic form obtained by computing the pseudo-inverse of a reduced rank square matrix. A formula is presented for computing the power of the most powerful test. A numerical example is included in which the power of the test is computed for a situation which may occur during an actual satellite aided search and rescue mission.

Argentiero, P. D.

Ambiguity resolution for satellite Doppler positioning systems

The implementation of satellite-based Doppler positioning systems frequently requires the recovery of transmitter position from a single pass of Doppler data. The least-squares approach to the problem yields conjugate solutions on either side of the satellite subtrack. It is important to develop a procedure for choosing the proper solution which is correct in a high percentage of cases. A test for ambiguity resolution which is the most powerful in the sense that it maximizes the probability of a correct decision is derived. When systematic error sources are properly included in the least-squares reduction process to yield an optimal solution the test reduces to choosing the solution which provides the smaller valuation of the least-squares loss function. When systematic error sources are ignored in the least-squares reduction, the most powerful test is a quadratic form comparison with the weighting matrix of the quadratic form obtained by computing the pseudoinverse of a reduced-rank square matrix. A formula for computing the power of the most powerful test is provided. Numerical examples are included in which the power of the test is computed for situations that are relevant to the design of a satellite-aided search and rescue system.

Argentiero, P.

Valve- And Switch-Monitoring Computer Program

Human operators freed from tedious, repetitive monitoring tasks. Computer program applies techniques of artificial intelligence to monitoring positions of many switches and valves. Uses combination of procedural and declarative programming techniques. NASA's C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS) provides rule-processing capabilities. Host program, written in C, acquires necessary data and applies valuation algorithm to generate knowledge-based propositions. Written to assist human flight controllers in comparing actual with expected configuration of switches and valves in Space Shuttle; underlying programming concept applicable to other complicated systems as chemical-processing plants, power-plants, and automated assembly lines. Program works with present monitoring equipment and computers.

Barry, Matthew R.

NASA/DOD Aerospace Knowledge Diffusion Research Project. XXIV - A general approach to measuring the value of aerospace information products and services

This paper discusses the various approaches to measuring the value of information, first defining the meanings of information, economics of information, and value. It concludes that no general model of measuring the value of information is possible and that the usual approaches, such as cost/benefit equations, have very limited applications. It also concludes that in specific contexts with given goals for newly developed products and services or newly acquired information, there is a basis for its objective valuation. The axioms and inputs for such a model are described and directions for further verification and analysis are proposed.

Brinberg, Herbert R.

NASA/DOD Aerospace Knowledge Diffusion Research Project. Paper 24: A general approach to measuring the value of aerospace information products and services

This paper discusses the various approaches to measuring the value of information, first defining the meanings of information, economics of information, and value. It concludes that no general model of measuring the value of information is possible and that the usual approaches, such as cost/benefit equations, have very limited applications. It also concludes that in specific contexts with given goals for newly developed products and services or newly acquired information there is a basis for its objective valuation. The axioms and inputs for such a model are described and directions for further verification and analysis are proposed.

Brinberg, Herbert R.

Cognition and procedure representational requirements for predictive human performance models

Models and modeling environments for human performance are becoming significant contributors to early system design and analysis procedures. Issues of levels of automation, physical environment, informational environment, and manning requirements are being addressed by such man/machine analysis systems. The research reported here investigates the close interaction between models of human cognition and models that described procedural performance. We describe a methodology for the decomposition of aircrew procedures that supports interaction with models of cognition on the basis of procedures observed; that serves to identify cockpit/avionics information sources and crew information requirements; and that provides the structure to support methods for function allocation among crew and aiding systems. Our approach is to develop an object-oriented, modular, executable software representation of the aircrew, the aircraft, and the procedures necessary to satisfy flight-phase goals. We then encode in a time-based language, taxonomies of the conceptual, relational, and procedural constraints among the cockpit avionics and control system and the aircrew. We have designed and implemented a goals/procedures hierarchic representation sufficient to describe procedural flow in the cockpit. We then execute the procedural representation in simulation software and calculate the values of the flight instruments, aircraft state variables and crew resources using the constraints available from the relationship taxonomies. The system provides a flexible, extensible, manipulative and executable representation of aircrew and procedures that is generally applicable to crew/procedure task-analysis. The representation supports developed methods of intent inference, and is extensible to include issues of information requirements and functional allocation. We are attempting to link the procedural representation to models of cognitive functions to establish several intent inference methods including procedural backtracking with concurrent search, temporal reasoning, and constraint checking for partial ordering of procedures. Finally, the representation is being linked to models of human decision making processes that include heuristic, propositional and prescriptive judgement models that are sensitive to the procedural content in which the valuative functions are being performed.

Corker, K.

Computational and Experimental Efforts in Gravity Probe B Microthruster Analysis

Gravity Probe B, an experiment to test the theory of relativity, will be launched near the turn of the millennium. Due to the precise pointing requirements need to successfully carry out this experiment, the satellite will use sixteen proportionally controlled microthrusters as a main component of the attitude control system. These microthrusters use the helium boil-off from the on-board dewar as propellant. Marshall Space Flight Center, verified the design of the thruster flow path by both computational and experimental methods. The flow performance of the thruster has been adequately characterized. Graphs show specific impulse, thrust coefficient, discharge coefficient, and mass flow rate trends. Value was added to the program through gained confidence in the design of the thruster and through valuation of some design trade-offs.

Droege, Alan

Parallelization of Rocket Engine Simulator Software (P.R.E.S.S.)

Parallelization of Rocket Engine System Software (PRESS) project is part of a collaborative effort with Southern University at Baton Rouge (SUBR), University of West Florida (UWF), and Jackson State University (JSU). The project has started on October 19, 1995, and after a three-year period corresponding to project phases and fiscal-year funding by NASA Lewis Research Center (now Glenn Research Center), has ended on October 18, 1998. The one-year no-cost extension period was granted on June 7, 1998, until October 19, 1999. The aim of this one year no-cost extension period was to carry out further research to complete the work and lay the groundwork for subsequent research in the area of aerospace engine design optimization software tools. The previous progress for the research has been reported in great detail in respective interim and final research progress reports, seven of them, in all. While the purpose of this report is to be a final summary and an valuative view of the entire work since the first year funding, the following is a quick recap of the most important sections of the interim report dated April 30, 1999.

Cezzar, Ruknet

Citrus Inventory

An aerial color infrared (CIR) mapping system developed by Kennedy Space Center enables Florida's Charlotte County to accurately appraise its citrus groves while reducing appraisal costs. The technology was further advanced by development of a dual video system making it possible to simultaneously view images of the same area and detect changes. An image analysis system automatically surveys and photo interprets grove images as well as automatically counts trees and reports totals. The system, which saves both time and money, has potential beyond citrus grove valuation.

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