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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2

Ion Transport in Concentrated Crosslinked Solid Polymer Electrolytes

Crosslinking polymers is a common approach to create mechanically stable solid materials such as polymer electrolytes for lithium batteries. In conventional liquid electrolytes, the solvent molecules move freely to accommodate the field-induced motion of ions. However, in crosslinked polymer electrolytes, the rearrangement of polymer segments is constrained by the deformation limits of the network. Herein, we develop a new transport model that accounts for both the formation of concentration gradients and the elasticity of the electrolyte. The elasticity is incorporated by adding an additional term related to the entropy of crosslinked strands to the electrochemical potential of the salt. The resulting Crosslink Model contains two adjustable parameters: $\mathcal{N}$, the average number of monomers in a strand, and λ crit , the maximum strain the network can sustain. These solid-like constraints produce singularities in the governing transport equations, fundamentally altering the concentration profiles. Plateaus in salt concentrations emerge near the electrodes, and network elasticity introduces a strain overpotential. When compared to a Baseline Model ($\mathcal{N}$ → ∞, equivalent to concentrated solution theory), which predicts steepest gradients near the electrodes, both models yield similar current–voltage relationships. Model predictions are compared to electrochemical data for a poly(ethylene oxide)-based crosslinked polymer electrolyte.

Patel, Vivaan [University of California, Berkeley,↗

Machine learning to predict biomass sorghum yields under future climate scenarios

Crop yield modeling is critical in the design of national strategies for agricultural production, particularly in the context of a changing climate. Forecasting yields of bioenergy crops at fine spatial resolutions can help to evaluate near-term and long-term pathways for scaling up bio-based fuel and chemical production, and for understanding the impacts of abiotic stressors such as severe droughts and temperature extremes on potential biomass supply. In this work we used a large dataset of 28,364 Sorghum bicolor yield samples (uniquely identified by county and year of observation), environmental variables, and multiple approaches to analyze historical trends in sorghum productivity across the USA. We selected the most accurate machine learning approach (a variation of the random forest approach) to predict future trends in sorghum yields under four greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios and two irrigation regimes. We identified irrigation practices, vapor pressure deficit, and time (a proxy for technological improvement) as the most important predictors of sorghum productivity. Our results showed a decreasing trend of sorghum yields over future years (on average 2.7% from 2018 to 2099), with greater decline under a high GHG emissions scenario (3.8%) and in the absence of irrigation (4.6%). Geographically, we observed the steepest predicted declines in the Great Lakes (8.2%), Upper Midwest (7.5%), and Heartland (6.7%) regions. Our study demonstrates the use of machine learning to identify environmental controllers of sorghum biomass yield and predict yields with reasonable accuracy. These results can inform the development of more realistic biomass supply projections for bioenergy if sorghum production is scaled up. (c) 2020 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

A Plasma Modeling Hierarchy and Verification Approach

This report reviews a hierarchy of formal mathematical models for describing plasma phenomena. Starting with the Boltzmann equation, a sequence of approximations and modeling assumptions can be made that progressively reduce to the equations for magnetohydrodynamics. Understanding the assumptions behind each of these models and their mathematical form is essential to appropriate use of each level of the hierarchy. A sequence of moment models of the Boltzmann equation are presented, then focused into a generalized three-fluid model for neutral species, electrons, and ions. This model is then further reduced to a two-fluid model, for which Braginskii described a useful closure. Further reduction of the two-fluid model yields a Generalized Ohm's Law model, which provides a connection to magnetohydrodynamic approaches. A verification approach based on linear plasma waves is presented alongside the model hierarchy, which is intended as an initial and necessary but not sufficient step for verification of plasma models within this hierarchy.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Ambiguities in the hadro-chemical freeze-out of Au+Au collisions at SIS18 energies and how to resolve them

The thermal fit to preliminary HADES data of Au+Au collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$=2.4 GeV shows two degenerate solutions at T≈50 MeV and T≈70 MeV. The analysis of the same particle yields in a transport simulation of the UrQMD model yields the same features, i.e. two distinct temperatures for the chemical freeze-out. While both solutions yield the same number of hadrons after resonance decays, the feeddown contribution is very different for both cases. This highlights that two systems with different chemical composition can yield the same multiplicities after resonance decays. The nature of these two minima is further investigated by studying the time-dependent particle yields and extracted thermodynamic properties of the UrQMD model. It is confirmed, that the evolution of the high temperature solution resembles cooling and expansion of a hot and dense fireball. The low temperature solution displays an unphysical evolution: heating and compression of matter with a decrease of entropy. These results imply that the thermal model analysis of systems produced in low energy nuclear collisions is ambiguous but can be interpreted by taking also the time evolution and resonance contributions into account.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Comparison of source-location algorithms for atmospheric samplers

Numerous algorithms have been developed to determine the source characteristics for an atmospheric release, e.g., (Bieringer et al., 2017). This study compares three models that have been applied to the data collected by the International Monitoring System operated by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Preparatory Commission to estimate source event parameters. Each model uses a different approach to estimate the parameters. A deterministic model uses a possible source region (PSR) approach (Ringbom et al., 2014) that is based on the correlation between predicted and measured sample values. An unnamed model developed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (herein called BAYEST) uses a Bayesian formulation (Eslinger et al., 2019; Eslinger et al., 2020; Eslinger and Schrom, 2016). The FREAR model uses a different Bayesian formulation (De Meutter and Hoffman, 2020; De Meutter et al., 2021; Pieter De Meutter, 2021). The performance of the three source-location models is evaluated with 100 synthetic release cases for the single xenon isotope, 133 Xe. The release cases resulted in detections in a fictitious network with 120 noble gas samplers. All three source-location models use the same sampling data. The two Bayesian models yield more accurate location estimates than the deterministic PSR model, with FREAR having slightly better location performance than BAYEST. Samplers with collection periods of 3, 6, 8, 12, and 24-h were used. Results from BAYEST show that location accuracy improves with each reduction in sample collection length. The BAYEST model is slightly better for estimating the start time of the release. The PSR model has about the same spread in start times as the FREAR model, but the PSR results have a better average start time. The Bayesian source-location algorithms give more accurate results than the PSR approach, and provide release magnitude estimates, while the base PSR model does not estimate the release magnitude. This investigation demonstrates that a reasonably dense sampling grid will sometimes yield poor location and time estimates regardless of the model. The poor estimates generally coincide with cases where there is a much larger distance between the release point and the first detecting sampler than the average sampler spacing.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Accuracy of predictions made by machine learned models for biocrude yields obtained from hydrothermal liquefaction of organic wastes

Hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) has potential for converting abundant wet organic wastes into renewable fuels. Because HTL consists of a complex reaction network, deterministic, physics-based prediction of its biocrude yield is prohibitively difficult. Data-driven methods provide an alternative to the physics-based approach; however, rigorous testing must be performed to ensure the accuracy of predictions made by data-driven methods. To this end, a data set was assembled consisting of 570 data points appearing in the open literature. The data set was divided into training, validation, and test sub-sets and used for evaluating different machine learning regression approaches to predict biocrude yield. Among the tested algorithms, Random Forest and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) predicted biocrude yields in a test set that had not been used for training with the greatest accuracy, with root mean square errors (RMSE) of 8.34 and 8.57, respectively. Further refinement of the Random Forest model reduced its RMSE to 8.07. In comparison, predictions of a series of literature models resulted in RMSE ranging from 9.16 in the most accurate case to 27.6 in the least accurate; most literature models yielded RMSE values > 10. Using biocrude yield predictions from the most accurate Random Forest model and a probabilistic economic analysis found that the model accuracy is sufficient to prioritize allocation of resources based on projected minimum fuel selling price. In our report the models and analysis represent a major advance in the ability to use readily available data to predict biocrude yields on new feedstocks that have not previously been studied.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The Power Curve Working Group's Assessment of Wind Turbine Power Performance Prediction Methods

A wind turbine power curve is often only strictly valid for a subset of all atmospheric conditions (i.e., the inner range), while wind turbines also operate in other scenarios (i.e., the outer range). Hence, modeling the power output in real-world conditions is a fundamental challenge. For example, the power deviation matrix (PDM) in Figure 1 displays an overprediction of power production using a reference power curve when wind speed (WS) and turbulence intensity (TI) are both low. Many experts use the PDM approach to observe any systematic bias in power curves and correct this in energy yield models. The mission of the Power Curve Working Group (PCWG) is to bring together wind industry stakeholders to help identify, validate, and develop ways to improve modeling of wind turbine performance in all atmospheric conditions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

The curled wake model: equivalence of shed vorticity models

In this work, we explore the spanwise velocities in the wake of a yawed wind turbine. In the curled wake model, these motions are induced by a collection of vortices shed from the rotor plane. The direction of the vorticity generated by yaw is aligned with the main flow (streamwise) direction. The streamwise vorticity induces velocities in the spanwise directions. These are the motions responsible for creating the curled wake mechanism. In this work, we explore a more accurate formulation for this mechanism, using a vortex cylinder. Under certain assumptions, the new and original curled wake models yield the same mathematical formulation. Also, both models predict an elliptic distribution of vortex strength, where the main difference is the location of the vortices.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Floating photovoltaic power plants: A review of energy yield, reliability, and operation and maintenance

Photovoltaic (PV) systems are essential for the transition to sustainable energy, reducing fossil fuel dependence and mitigating climate change. Although PV requires minimal land area — PV can meet the European Union's energy needs using only 0.26% of its land — space for deployment is often scarce in densely populated regions. Floating photovoltaics (FPV) offer an effective solution to land-use challenges by installing PV systems on floating structures in water bodies. FPV is a growing niche within PV with a cumulative installed capacity reaching 7.7 GW globally by 2023. Almost 90% of the installed FPV capacity is in Asia, with close to 50% of in China alone, while the Netherlands and France are the largest markets outside Asia. FPV shows strong potential to support climate targets, but still faces challenges like regulatory barriers, cost competitiveness compared to ground-based PV (GPV), and uncertainties about environmental impacts and system reliability. FPV systems are currently installed mainly on sheltered inland waters, such as quarry lakes, irrigation ponds and reservoirs. FPV technical standards are still being developed. Guidelines have been published by the World Bank, DNV, and Solar Power Europe, and emerging national standards from South Korea, China, and Singapore address design, components, and safety. The International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) is working on formal standards for floats, mooring systems, and electrical connectors. However, the published best practices lack quantitative guidance for yield modelling and reliability, which this report aims to address. It provides data-driven insights, models, and parameters essential for accurate energy yield, reliability, and maintenance predictions over FPV systems' lifetimes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Comparison of Artificial Compressibility Methods for Coupled Laminar Fluid Flow and Heat Transfer

Artificial compressibility (AC) methods for incompressible flows perturb the mass continuity equation by the time derivative of the pressure field to achieve direct coupling between pressure and velocity without the need for a projection method. Several variations of the original AC method have been proposed (e.g., the entropically damped artificial compressibility [EDAC] method) that can, in some scenarios, improve on the original model. In this paper, we methodically compare the results of the original AC model and the EDAC model for both steady-state and transient problems with coupling between the momentum and energy equations. We demonstrate that the EDAC model and the AC model yield similar numerical results, and the EDAC model is 10%-20% faster than the AC model for a given problem.

Oz, Furkan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000265831724)↗

Comparison of linear regression, k-nearest neighbour and random forest methods in airborne laser-scanning-based prediction of growing stock

Abstract In this study, for five sites around the world, we look at the effects of different model types and variable selection approaches on forest yield modelling performances in an area-based approach (ABA). We compared ordinary least squares regression (OLS), k-nearest neighbours (kNN) and random forest (RF). Our objective was to test if there are systematic differences in accuracy between OLS, kNN and RF in ABA predictions of growing stock volume. The analyses are based on a 5-fold cross-validation at five study sites: an eucalyptus plantation, a temperate forest and three different boreal forests. Two completely independent validation datasets were also available for two of the boreal sites. For the kNN, we evaluated multiple measures of distance including Euclidean, Mahalanobis, most similar neighbour (MSN) and an RF-based distance metric. The variable selection approaches we examined included a heuristic approach (for OLS, kNN and RF), exhaustive search among all combinations (OLS only) and all variables together (RF only). Performances varied by model type and variable selection approaches among sites. OLS and RF had similar accuracies and were more efficient than any of the kNN variants. Variable selection did not affect RF performance. Heuristic and exhaustive variable selection performed similarly for OLS. kNN fared the poorest amongst model types, and kNN with RF distance was prone to overfitting when compared with a validation dataset. Additional caution is therefore required when building kNN models for volume prediction though ABA, being preferable instead to opt for models based on OLS with some variable selection, or RF with all variables together.

Cosenza, Diogo N.↗

Cycles-L: A Coupled, 3-D, Land Surface, Hydrologic, and Agroecosystem Landscape Model

Managing landscapes to increase agricultural productivity and environmental stewardship can be informed by spatially-distributed models that operate at spatial and temporal scales that are intervention-relevant. This paper presents Cycles-L, a landscape-scale agroecosystem and hydrologic modeling system, using as a test case a watershed in Pennsylvania. Cycles-L emerges from melding the landscape and hydrology structure of Flux-PIHM, a 3-D land surface hydrologic model, with the agroecosystem processes in the Cycles model. Consequently, Cycles-L can simulate processes affected by topography, soil heterogeneity, and management practices, owing to its physically-based hydrology that can simulate horizontal and vertical transport of solutes with water. The model was tested at a 730-ha experimental watershed within the Mahantango Creek watershed. Cycles-L simulated well stream water and mineral nitrogen discharge (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient 0.55 and 0.60, respectively) and grain yield (root mean square error 1.2 Mg ha -1 ). Cycles-L outputs are as good or better than those obtained with the uncoupled Flux-PIHM (water discharge) and Cycles (grain yield) models. Modeled spatial patterns of nitrogen fluxes like denitrification illustrate the combined control of crop management and topography. For example, denitrification is almost twice as high when simulated with Cycles-L than when simulated with Cycles 1-D. Due to its spatial and temporal resolution, Cycles-L fills a gap in the availability of models that operate at a scale relevant to evaluate interventions in the landscape. Cycles-L can become a central component in tools for climate change scenario analysis, precision agriculture, precision conservation, and artificial intelligence-based decision support systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

X-ray thermal diffuse scattering as a texture-robust temperature diagnostic for dynamically compressed solids

We present a model of x-ray thermal diffuse scattering (TDS) from a cubic polycrystal with an arbitrary crystallographic texture, based on the classic approach of Warren [B. E. Warren, Acta Crystallogr. 6, 803 (1953)]. We compare the predictions of our model with femtosecond x-ray diffraction patterns gathered from ambient and dynamically compressed rolled copper foils obtained at the High Energy Density instrument of the European X-Ray Free-Electron Laser facility and find that the texture-aware TDS model yields more accurate results than does the conventional powder model owed to Warren. Nevertheless, we further show: with sufficient angular detector coverage, the TDS signal is largely unchanged by sample orientation and in all cases strongly resembles the signal from a perfectly random powder; shot-to-shot fluctuations in the TDS signal resulting from grain-sampling statistics are at the percent level, in stark contrast to the fluctuations in the Bragg-peak intensities (which are over an order of magnitude greater); and TDS is largely unchanged even following texture evolution caused by compression-induced plastic deformation. We conclude that TDS is robust against texture variation, making it a flexible temperature diagnostic applicable just as well to off-the-shelf commercial foils as to ideal powders.

Crystal lattices↗

Application of community data to surface complexation modeling framework development: Iron oxide protolysis

This study presents a comprehensive community data-driven surface complexation modeling framework for simulating potentiometric titration of mineral surfaces. Compiled community data for ferrihydrite, goethite, hematite, and magnetite are fit to produce representative protolysis constants that can reproduce potentiometric titration data collected from multiple literature sources. Using this framework, the impact of surface complexation model type and surface site density (SSD) on the fit quality and protolysis constants can be readily evaluated. For example, the non-electrostatic model yielded a poor data fit compared to diffuse double layer model and constant capacitance models due to the absence of known surface charge effects. Regardless of the choice of iron oxide mineral, pK a1 decreased with increasing SSD while the opposite tendency was observed for pK a2 . This newly developed framework demonstrates a method to reconcile community data-wide potentiometric titration data using Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable data principles to produce mineral protolysis constants that improve robustness of surface complexation models for applications in metal sorption and reactive transport modeling. The framework is readily expandable (as community data increase) and extensible (as the number of minerals increase). The framework provides a path forward for developing self-consistent, comprehensive, and updateable surface complexation databases for surface complexation and reactive transport modeling.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Mu2e: Modeling Drift of Ionized Particles with ML

The Mu2e experiment searches for charged lepton flavor violation through muon-to-electron conversion in the field of a nucleus. The signal is a monoenergetic electron with an energy of 104.97 MeV. Its momentum is reconstructed using information from drifting ionized particles in a straw tracker detector. This project analyzes the drift of ionized particles with a deep neural network to help improve the momentum reconstruction process. The model yields a 20% improvement in resolution from a reference linear model.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Mu2e: Modeling Drift of Ionized Particles with ML

The Mu2e experiment searches for charged lepton flavor violation through muon-to-electron conversion in the field of a nucleus. The signal is a monoenergetic electron with an energy of 104.97 MeV. Its momentum is reconstructed using information from drifting ionized particles in a straw tracker detector. This project analyzes the drift of ionized particles with a deep neural network to help improve the momentum reconstruction process. The model yields a 20% improvement in resolution from a reference linear model.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Search for pair production of squarks or gluinos decaying via sleptons or weak bosons in final states with two same-sign or three leptons with the ATLAS detector

A search for pair production of squarks or gluinos decaying via sleptons or weak bosons is reported. The search targets a final state with exactly two leptons with same-sign electric charge or at least three leptons without any charge requirement. The analysed data set corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb –1 of proton-proton collisions collected at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Multiple signal regions are defined, targeting several SUSY simplified models yielding the desired final states. A single control region is used to constrain the normalisation of the WZ + jets background. No significant excess of events over the Standard Model expectation is observed. The results are interpreted in the context of several supersymmetric models featuring R-parity conservation or R-parity violation, yielding exclusion limits surpassing those from previous searches. In models considering gluino (squark) pair production, gluino (squark) masses up to 2.2 (1.7) TeV are excluded at 95% confidence level.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Predicting Fluid Flow Regime, Permeability, and Diffusivity in Mudrocks from Multiscale Pore Characterisation

In geoenergy applications, mudrocks prevent fluids to leak from temporary (H 2 , CH 4 ) or permanent (CO 2 , radioactive waste) storage/disposal sites and serve as a source and reservoir for unconventional oil and gas. Understanding transport properties integrated with dominant fluid flow mechanisms in mudrocks is essential to better predict the performance of mudrocks within these applications. In this study, small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) experiments were conducted on 71 samples from 13 different sets of mudrocks across the globe to capture the pore structure of nearly the full pore size spectrum (2 nm–5 μm). We develop fractal models to predict transport properties (permeability and diffusivity) based on the SANS-derived pore size distributions. The results indicate that transport phenomena in mudrocks are intrinsically pore size-dependent. Depending on hydrostatic pore pressures, transition flow develops in micropores, slip flow in meso- and macropores, and continuum flow in larger macropores. Fluid flow regimes progress towards larger pore sizes during reservoir depletion or smaller pore sizes during fluid storage, so when pressure is decreased or increased, respectively. Capturing the heterogeneity of mudrocks by considering fractal dimension and tortuosity fractal dimension for defined pore size ranges, fractal models integrate apparent permeability with slip flow, Darcy permeability with continuum flow, and gas diffusivity with diffusion flow in the matrix. This new model of pore size-dependent transport and integrated transport properties using fractal models yields a systematic approach that can also inform multiscale multi-physics models to better understand fluid flow and transport phenomena in mudrocks on the reservoir and basin scale.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗