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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2022

cabbi-bio/BECT-ABM

The emergence of the cellulosic bioeconomy requires not only adequate technological, economic, and policy advances, but also effective communication and coordination among the multiple stakeholders in the bioeconomy community. Aiming to facilitate stakeholder communication and collaboration for cellulosic bioeconomy growth, an agent-based model is developed as a community communication tool in this study. The tool simulates the behaviors and interactions of key stakeholders, as well as the responses and interactions between the stakeholders and biophysical, socioeconomic, and environmental conditions. The agent behavior rules are developed and validated based on behavior and economic theories and information attained from a stakeholder focus group study and a land use survey.

Yang, Pan↗

DOE OSTI2022

The modeling of risk perception in the use of structural health monitoring information for optimal maintenance decisions

This paper proposes an approach to select a maintenance strategy from a predefined set of choices considering the decision maker’s behavioral risk profile. It is assumed that the damage state is characterized by a continuous state parameter probabilistically inferred from observable sensor data. This work applies an engineering application of consequence-based decision-making incorporating the acceptable risk intensity of the decision-maker, i.e., the decision-maker’s (individual or an organization) valuation of the outcome of a decision, using a risk profile model. The utility of a decision-maker is subjective, and this paper considers the fact that different decision-makers mentally assign a different importance factor (the utility) to the seriousness or urgency to take necessary actions with the increasing intensity of structural damage. The approach herein incorporates a layer of human psychology on selecting appropriate maintenance strategies that not only depend on the posterior distribution of unmeasurable damage state but also consider the behavioral risk profile of the decision-maker. Further, the collective decision-making of an organization consisting of many individuals is also investigated. The approach is exemplified in a case study involving life cycle monitoring of a miter gate, part of a lock system enabling navigation of inland waterways.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

R-SEEDS Final Report

DER aggregation and grid digitalization imply a future grid that would benefit from more fluid interaction between the bulk power system and the distribution system. This scenario presents a challenge for grid modeling, which treats the two systems separately. Grid modeling also focuses on the engineering aspects of grids without incorporating modeling of the human and social dimensions of the grid as a cyber-physical-social system. The R-SEEDS project examines the integration of human and social models into grid modeling and its implications on decarbonization, energy justice, and distributional impacts.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Powered by dGen Webinar [Slides]

NLR's Powered By Webinar Series featuring NLR's dGen Modeling Tool. The Distributed Generation Market Demand (dGenTM) model simulates customer adoption of distributed energy resources for residential, commercial, and industrial entities in the United States or other countries through 2050. The model enables analysis at multiple geographic levels (national, state, and utility, or below) and offers sophistication in representation of decision-making regarding economic and behavioral considerations. Analysts have used dGen to answer questions about load forecasting and integrated resource planning, policy analysis, locational value of distributed energy resources, and more. dGen is open source, and various energy organizations - including independent system operators, regional transmission organizations, and the California Energy Commission - use the model internally.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1984

Human capabilities in space

Man's ability to live and perform useful work in space was demonstrated throughout the history of manned space flight. Current planning envisions a multi-functional space station. Man's unique abilities to respond to the unforeseen and to operate at a level of complexity exceeding any reasonable amount of previous planning distinguish him from present day machines. His limitations, however, include his inherent inability to survive without protection, his limited strength, and his propensity to make mistakes when performing repetitive and monotonous tasks. By contrast, an automated system does routine and delicate tasks, exerts force smoothly and precisely, stores, and recalls large amounts of data, and performs deductive reasoning while maintaining a relative insensitivity to the environment. The establishment of a permanent presence of man in space demands that man and machines be appropriately combined in spaceborne systems. To achieve this optimal combination, research is needed in such diverse fields as artificial intelligence, robotics, behavioral psychology, economics, and human factors engineering.

Nicogossian, A. E.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Multi-Year Movements of Blacknose, Finetooth, & Sharpnose Sharks in the US South Atlantic Based on Monitoring Within a Regional-Scale Acoustic Telemetry Network

Despite their numerical abundance and economic value, the behavior of many small coastal sharks in the US South Atlantic has been only coarsely described. Here we present movement summaries for blacknose (Carcharhinus acronotus), finetooth (C. isodon), and Atlantic sharpnose shark (Rhizoprionodon terraenovae) as they travelled through a regional-scale acoustic telemetry network, offering direct comparisons of habitat utilization, site fidelity, and the extent and timing of coastal migrations. From 2013-2016, 165 total sharks were implanted with acoustic transmitters at Cape Canaveral, Florida, and tracked up to four years. While blacknose sharks were common off east Florida year-round, finetooth sharks were most abundant winter through early spring and sharpnose sharks summer through fall. Blacknose sharks also moved more slowly (mean 0.8 kilometers per hour) and had the broadest depth preferences, while finetooth sharks were strongly shore-associated and sharpnose preferred proportionally deeper waters. All species exhibited low site fidelity when at Cape Canaveral, remaining at the same site for more than 1 hour on average, even when associated with deeper hard-bottom sites. Most finetooth and many blacknose undertook spring migrations as far as Virginia and North Carolina, respectively, before returning to east Florida each winter. Sharpnose also made regular northward movements that were not as obviously seasonally-driven. Multiple individuals of all species, particularly females, returned briefly south to Cape Canaveral in mid-summer, illustrating that coastal migrations in these species are more akin to seasonal expansions of their geographic ranges as opposed to a synchronized shift of the entire population along the coast.

Reyier, Eric↗

DOE OSTI2020

Dynamics of virtual water networks: Role of national socio-economic indicators across the world

Intensified water usage due to rapid industrialization is often dictated by economic policies based on monetary growth rather than sustainable use of environmental resources. In addition, interdependence within economic sectors further interweaves water usage through product transactions, which further makes it difficult to quantify the dynamics of hydro-economic systems at regional, national and global scale. In this study, we investigated the dynamics of domestic virtual water networks (VWN) of 189 countries based on concept of information theory by quantifying network metrics that describes VWN flow capacity, robustness, efficiency and flexibility. These networks represent virtual water interconnected through economic sectors within a specified country built based on environmentally extended multi region input output (EE-MRIO) approach. We further estimated trends associated with network metrics, as well as coupling intensity between metrics with respect to socio-economic indicators, such as, population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross National Income (GNI). It was observed that capacity and flexibility of VWNs are strongly and positively correlated indicating that a high capacity VWN can be more flexible. Our results also indicate that, in general a higher percentage of developing countries (i.e. both least developing and developing nations) have exhibited increasing trends in capacity, robustness, efficiency and flexibility of VWN compared to developed nations. It was revealed that the dynamics of VWNs are positively coupled with socio-economic growth for few countries, which indicates the sustainable behavior of VWN with socio-economic growth. Our results argue that the information theory-based metrics by embedding water footprints can holistically capture sustainability aspect of the VWN dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

‪A Novel Methodology for Longitudinal Studies of Home Thermal Comfort Perception and Behavior

Human-building interactions significantly influence building energy consumption and affect peak energy demand. For example, heating and cooling contribute 46% of daily peak residential energy demand. Grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs) can potentially increase energy-demand flexibility and accelerate the adoption of renewables. However, traditional demand response (DR) programs focused on shedding peak loads disregard the human-building interactions leading to occupant thermal frustration. Specifically, they do not model occupants’ ability to override thermostat controls, nor how indoor environmental conditions and sociocultural factors affect the timing and magnitude of overrides. Studies have found 20% of occupants override thermostat setpoints during DR events longer than 6 hours yet lack detail about the motivation that might guide more successful efforts. Balancing energy-demand flexibility with occupant thermal comfort requires understanding dynamic occupant behavior, the underlying psychophysiological drivers, in the context of homes. This paper presents methods for scalable longitudinal studies of residential occupant behavior dynamics to inform the development of psychophysiological occupant-centric building models. Smart sensors were installed to measure local environmental conditions in 20 homes in two regions of the United States. Just-in-time ecological momentary assessments (EMAs) provided qualitative data on occupant thermal comfort and local environmental conditions not captured in Internet-of-Things (IoT) based studies or existing datasets. Participant interviews provided insight into environmental attitudes, mental models, and the role of economics in comfort and behavior, which in turn may affect thermostat interactions. Based on these data, interventions in the next phase of the study will collect data and monitor occupant behavior during simulated DR events.

Kane, Michael↗

DOE OSTI2021

Liquefying Lignins: Determining Phase-Transition Temperatures in the Presence of Aqueous Organic Solvents

Under appropriate conditions of temperature and solvent composition, single-phase aqueous organic solvents are capable of liquefying lignin to form a lignin-rich liquid phase separate from the solvent phase, creating liquid–liquid equilibrium. The extent to which this phenomenon occurs when Kraft lignin is combined with the solvents methanol, ethanol, isopropanol, and acetone was determined, with solid–liquid (SL) to liquid–liquid (LL) phase-transition temperatures being measured over the range of applicable organic–water compositions. Lignins tested from a variety of biomass sources were all discovered to form this liquid–liquid equilibrium with aqueous ethanol solutions. Furthermore, the formation of such phase behavior between lignin and economical, green solvents creates new opportunities for the large-scale purification and fractionation of raw bulk (i.e., technical) lignins.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Stability of aqueous neodymium complexes in carbonate-bearing solutions from 100–600 °C

Rare earth element exploration requires a quantitative understanding of factors governing their mobilization and economic concentration. However, the behavior of rare earth elements in carbonate- bearing hydrothermal fluids associated with carbonatite-hosted deposits is poorly understood, and conflicting mechanisms of rare earth transport by anionic ligands and alkali behavior have been described. Here, we report quantitative data to characterize the role of carbonate-bearing solutions in the hydrothermal mobilization of neodymium. Solubility studies of neodymium phosphate were performed at temperatures ranging from 100 to 600 °C in carbonate-bearing solutions. The thermodynamic data determined for the predominant complex were used to model the separation of neodymium from thorium in a simple flow-through system based on fluid and mineral compositions characteristic of carbonatite deposits. Our data suggest that neodymium transport is controlled by the stability of the carbonate species NdCO 3 OH o , and at temperatures of 500–600 °C, the concentrations of neodymium in solutions can reach ~1000 ppm.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Alignment among environmental programs in higher education: What Food-Energy-Water Nexus concepts are covered in introductory courses?

Interdisciplinary environmental and sustainability (IES) programs are different from other fields because they focus on a complex integration of humanities, social, and natural sciences concepts centered on the interactions of coupled human and natural systems. The interdisciplinary nature of IES programs does not lend itself to traditional discipline-specific concept inventory frameworks for critically evaluating preconceptions and learning. We discuss the results of the first phase of a research project to develop a next generation concept inventory for evaluating interdisciplinary concepts important for introductory IES courses. Using the Food-Energy-Water (FEW) Nexus (the intersections/interdependencies of food, energy, and water sectors) as our focus, we conducted a content analysis of eight representative college-level introductory environmental course syllabi and course materials (e.g., textbooks, journal articles, print media) to identify common interdisciplinary FEW Nexus concepts taught in introductory IES courses. Results demonstrate that all IES introductory course materials reference the FEW Nexus. Food, energy, and/or water resources as individual elements of the FEW Nexus are frequently described, but connections between these resource systems are included less often. Biology, energy systems, waste and pollution in the natural environment, agriculture, earth sciences and geology, climate change, behavioral social sciences, and economics concepts are most associated with FEW concepts, hinting at commonalities across IES topics that anchor systems thinking. Despite differences in IES programs, there appears to be some alignment between core concepts being taught at the FEW Nexus in introductory courses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Game Theory Approaches for System-level Incentive Design

This report presents a generalized Stackelberg game framework for designing and evaluating financial incentives that enhance power system resilience through strategic deployment of distributed energy resources(DERs) under various contingencies. The proposed approach addresses the challenge of coordinating individual community investment decisions to meet system-wide resilience objectives. The framework is demonstrated in a three-community test system subjected to two transmission contingency scenarios: inter-community line failure (Case 1) and complete main grid disconnection (Case 2). In both cases, three incentive levels are compared: a Base case with no financial incentives, and low and high incentive cases. In Case 1, the Base case (no incentives) results in a total installed DER capacity of 217.2 MW, with no load shedding due to alternative routing, but community costs remain high. Increasing incentives raises DER deployment to 286.9 MW, lowers aggregate community costs by $22M annually, and completely avoids the need for costly new transmission line construction. In Case 2, the Base case results in 24.3 MWh of unserved load; introducing incentives eliminates all load shedding and ensures up to 89 MWh of battery storage is available for emergency reserve. These results demonstrate that targeted incentives can dramatically improve grid resilience and cost-effectiveness. The framework thus offers policymakers and system planners a robust tool to quantify and compare the effectiveness of incentive programs for multi-community transmission networks behavior, system resilience, and economic efficiency.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Structure evolution and tin redistribution during oxidation of Zircaloy-4 at 500°C

Zirconium (Zr) alloys are widely used as fuel cladding in nuclear power reactors due to their thermal stability, mechanical durability, corrosion resistance, and low neutron absorption cross-section. However, their performance is challenged by oxidation in reactor environments, making the study of Zr alloy corrosion behavior crucial for ensuring the safety, longevity, and economic viability of nuclear power systems. While the oxidation behavior of Zr-based cladding materials has been extensively studied since the 1950s, a mechanistic understanding into the relationship between structure evolution, solute element redistribution, and properties remains elusive. Valuable insights may be obtained through advanced experimental methods, such as in-situ and high resolution microscopy techniques. Here, in this study, the oxidation behavior of Zircaloy-4 at 500 °C in O 2 is characterized using a multimodal advanced characterization approach. Using in-situ X-ray diffraction, the phase evolution from metastable to stable oxides is tracked in real time. Complementary high-resolution techniques, including electron microscopy and atom probe tomography, reveal nanoscale insights into the microstructural changes and solute redistribution across the oxide/metal interface. Nanohardness mapping across the oxide/metal interface highlights localized mechanical property variations that may be linked to changes in microstructure and crystal structure within the oxide layer. These findings offer valuable insights into the microstructure and property evolution of Zircaloy-4 during oxidation, contributing to a better understanding of microstructural changes in Zr-based alloys under oxidative environments.

APT↗

NASA NTRS2010

Physics of Life: A Model for Non-Newtonian Properties of Living Systems

This innovation proposes the reconciliation of the evolution of life with the second law of thermodynamics via the introduction of the First Principle for modeling behavior of living systems. The structure of the model is quantum-inspired: it acquires the topology of the Madelung equation in which the quantum potential is replaced with the information potential. As a result, the model captures the most fundamental property of life: the progressive evolution; i.e. the ability to evolve from disorder to order without any external interference. The mathematical structure of the model can be obtained from the Newtonian equations of motion (representing the motor dynamics) coupled with the corresponding Liouville equation (representing the mental dynamics) via information forces. All these specific non-Newtonian properties equip the model with the levels of complexity that matches the complexity of life, and that makes the model applicable for description of behaviors of ecological, social, and economical systems. Rather than addressing the six aspects of life (organization, metabolism, growth, adaptation, response to stimuli, and reproduction), this work focuses only on biosignature ; i.e. the mechanical invariants of life, and in particular, the geometry and kinematics of behavior of living things. Living things obey the First Principles of Newtonian mechanics. One main objective of this model is to extend the First Principles of classical physics to include phenomenological behavior on living systems; to develop a new mathematical formalism within the framework of classical dynamics that would allow one to capture the specific properties of natural or artificial living systems such as formation of the collective mind based upon abstract images of the selves and non-selves; exploitation of this collective mind for communications and predictions of future expected characteristics of evolution; and for making decisions and implementing the corresponding corrections if the expected scenario is different from the originally planned one. This approach postulates that even a primitive living species possesses additional, non-Newtonian properties that are not included in the laws of Newtonian or statistical mechanics. These properties follow from a privileged ability of living systems to possess a self-image (a concept introduced in psychology) and to interact with it. The proposed mathematical system is based on the coupling of the classical dynamical system representing the motor dynamics with the corresponding Liouville equation describing the evolution of initial uncertainties in terms of the probability density and representing the mental dynamics. The coupling is implemented by the information-based supervising forces that can be associated with self-awareness. These forces fundamentally change the pattern of the probability evolution, and therefore, lead to a major departure of the behavior of living systems from the patterns of both Newtonian and statistical mechanics. This innovation is meant to capture the signature of life based only on observable behavior, not on any biochemistry. This will not prevent the use of this model for developing artificial living systems, as well as for studying some general properties of behavior of natural, living systems.

Zak, Michail↗

DOE OSTI2024

An empirical analysis of supply offers in the ERCOT operating reserves markets

Here, this paper seeks to improve theoretical and empirical understanding of supplier dynamics in wholesale markets for operating reserves, which have been understudied compared to energy markets. We begin by identifying several economic factors that unit owners may consider when submitting offers into operating reserves auctions in two-stage, co-optimized markets common across much of North America. Next, we analyze historical offer data from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) market to assess whether actual reserve market behavior aligns with expectations based on economic theory, as well as with commonly used assumptions in electricity market modeling efforts. We find that the aggregate supply of operating reserves in ERCOT varies meaningfully over time, becoming more expensive during summer afternoons, which is consistent with theoretical expectations but contradicts the typical modeling assumption of temporally invariant reserve offers. Analysis of offers made by individual units uncovers additional insights, such as the existence of large offer pattern differences by unit owner and the tendency of battery storage units to submit very low offer prices. We conclude by discussing how our findings can be integrated into electricity market modeling assumptions to improve alignment with observed operating reserve offer inputs and pricing outcomes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1975

The value of forage measurement information in rangeland management

An economic model and simulation are developed to estimate the potential social benefit arising from the use of alternative measurement systems in rangeland management. In order to estimate these benefits, it was necessary to model three separate systems: the range environment, the rangeland manager, and the information system which links the two. The rancher's decision-making behavior is modeled according to sound economic principles. Results indicate substantial potential benefits, particularly when used in assisting management of government-operated ranges; possible annual benefits in this area range from $20 to $46 million, depending upon the system capabilities assumed. Possible annual benefit in privately-managed stocker operations range from $2.8 to $49.5 million, depending upon where actual rancher capabilities lie and what system capabilities are assumed.

Lietzke, K. R.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Analyzing Trip Chaining Behavior in New York State Using 2009 and 2017 National Household Travel Survey

Trip chaining, defined as the sequential linking of trips by individuals throughout a given day, provides critical insights into daily mobility patterns and activity sequencing. Understanding these patterns has significant implications for transportation demand forecasting, congestion management, and local economic activity. This analysis examines trip chaining behaviors in New York State (NYS) for the years 2009 and 2017 and compares the Middle Atlantic Census Division with other U.S. regions in 2022, utilizing data from the National Household Travel Survey (NHTS). Through demographic, geographic, and temporal analysis, this study characterizes how populations organize travel for work, personal errands, and social activities, providing empirical evidence of evolving trip chaining behaviors to inform transportation planning strategies.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Optimization-based control using input convex neural networks

Input convex neural networks (ICNNs) are a family of deep learning models where the outputs are constructed to be convex functions of the inputs. By parameterizing system models using ICNNs, optimization-based control problems can be solved as convex optimization problems, leading to improved performance and robustness. This work proposes a novel framework where the control objective function and constraints are modelled using ICNNs. A case study of optimization-based control with output constraints is conducted on a process with input multiplicity and nonminimum phase behavior. The simulation results demonstrate improved economic yield compared with normal neural networks. Additionally, the input convexity formulation is compared with simple regularization techniques, and unique benefits such as improved data efficiency and robustness of the proposed formulation are shown. Finally, by explicitly incorporating prior knowledge about convexity, this framework provides a good balance between the universal approximation power of deep learning and computational feasibility required by control.

42 ENGINEERING↗