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At least 37 records · Page 2

A Data-Driven Method for Modeling Creep-Fatigue Stress- Strain Behavior Using Neural ODEs

In this paper, we introduce a data-driven machine learning approach for modeling one-dimensional stress–strain behavior under cyclic loading, utilizing experimental data from the nickel-based Alloy 617. The study employs uniaxial creep–fatigue test data acquired under various loading histories and compares two distinct neural network-based ODE models. The first model, known as the black-box model, comprehensively describes the strain–stress relationship using a Neural ODE equation. To interpret this black-box model, we apply the Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamical Systems (SINDy) technique, transforming the black-box model into an equation-based model using symbolic regression. The second model, the Neural flow rule model, incorporates Hooke’s Law for the linear elastic component, with the nonlinear part characterized by a Neural ODE. Both models are trained with experimental data to accurately reflect the observed stress–strain behavior. We conduct a detailed comparison with the standard Chaboche model, which includes three back stresses. Our results demonstrate that the neural network-based ODE models precisely capture the experimental creep–fatigue mechanical behavior, exceeding the standard Chaboche model’s accuracy. Furthermore, an interpretable model derived from the black-box neural ODE model through symbolic regression achieves accuracy comparable to the Chaboche model, enhancing its interpretability. The results highlight the potential of neural network-based ODE models to depict complex creep–fatigue behavior, eliminating the necessity for experts to define a specific, material-focused model form.

creep-fatigue↗

Machine learning-enhanced hybrid modeling approach for better identification of a building thermal network model and improved prediction

The gray-box modeling approach, which uses a semi-physical thermal network model, has been widely used in building prediction applications, such as model predictive control (MPC). However, unmeasured disturbances, such as occupants, lighting, and in/exfiltration loads, make it challenging to apply this approach to practical buildings. In this word, we propose a hybrid modeling approach that integrates the gray-box model with a model for unmeasured disturbance. After reviewing several system identification approaches, we systematically designed the unmeasured disturbance model with a model selection process based on statistical tests to make it robust. We generated data based on the building model calibrated by real operational data and then trained the hybrid model for two different weather conditions. The hybrid model approach demonstrates an RMSE reduction of approximately 0.2–0.9 °C and 0.3–2 °C on 1-day ahead temperature prediction compared to the Conventional approach for mild (Berkeley, CA) and cold (Chicago, IL) climates, respectively. In addition, this approach was applied to experimental data obtained from the laboratory building to be used for the MPC application, showing superior prediction performances.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Interpretable machine learning for knowledge generation in heterogeneous catalysis

Most applications of machine learning in heterogeneous catalysis thus far have used black-box models to predict computable physical properties (descriptors), such as adsorption or formation energies, that can be related to catalytic performance (that is, activity or stability). Here, extracting meaningful physical insights from these black-box models has proved challenging, as the internal logic of these black-box models is not readily interpretable due to their high degree of complexity. Interpretable machine learning methods that merge the predictive capacity of black-box models with the physical interpretability of physics-based models offer an alternative to black-box models. In this Perspective, we discuss the various interpretable machine learning methods available to catalysis researchers, highlight the potential of interpretable machine learning to accelerate hypothesis formation and knowledge generation, and outline critical challenges and opportunities for interpretable machine learning in heterogeneous catalysis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Modeling the Impact of the Organic Aerosol Phase State on Multiphase OH Reactive Uptake Kinetics and the Resultant Heterogeneous Oxidation Timescale of Organic Aerosol in the Amazon Rainforest

Accurate predictions of chemical lifetime, i.e., oxidation timescale and change in the mass of organic aerosols (OAs) in atmospheric models, are critical to quantify the impacts of OA on aerosol–cloud interactions, radiative forcing, and air quality. The heterogeneous oxidation of OA by hydroxyl (OH) radicals is a key process governing OA mass changes during their oxidation. Recently, laboratory observations of the OH uptake coefficient (γ OH ) and heterogeneous reaction rate (k het,OH ) for different OA systems with varying phase states have been combined to develop a new parameterization of γ OH and k het,OH as a function of the OA phase state, i.e., viscosity (η OA ). Here, in this work, we use a recently published viscosity prediction framework to analyze the new γ OH and k het,OH parameterization with a box model. Subsequently, we implement this box model to predict γ OH and k het,OH over the Amazon rainforest in the dry-to-wet transition season with both significant biomass burning and biogenic influences. Relevant parameters within our box model are specified based on detailed regional model simulations over the Amazon using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem). η OA is predicted as a function of species volatility, OA composition (including water uptake) along with ambient relative humidity (RH), and temperature. Based on ambient conditions simulated by WRF-Chem over the entire atmospheric column, we use the box model to predict the upper bounds of the heterogeneous oxidation timescale of OA. Based on previous laboratory measurements, we assume that this heterogeneous OH oxidation causes fragmentation (carbon loss) of OA, followed by the evaporation of the fragmented molecules that results in the exponential decay of OA. We predict that the oxidation timescale of OA is ~1 month near the Earth’s surface in the pristine Amazonian background because of low OH concentrations. But OA is oxidized more rapidly within urban and wildfire plumes near the Earth’s surface with an order of magnitude higher OH concentrations compared to the pristine background, causing the simulated oxidation timescale of OA to be much shorter, ~3–4 days. At 3–5 km altitudes where biomass burning OA is predicted to be semisolid, the heterogeneous oxidation timescale is estimated as ~6 days to 3 weeks and decreases with increasing OH concentrations within plumes. We show that the simulated mass loss of OA is strongly size-dependent, where smaller particles oxidize more rapidly compared to larger particles due to their greater per-particle surface area-to-volume ratio. Increasing urbanization and deforestation in the Amazon in the future might increase OH concentrations in the background Amazon, causing faster oxidation of OA. At higher altitudes above liquid clouds, especially in the upper troposphere where temperatures approach ~250 K, future measurements are needed to reduce the uncertainties related to the mass loss of OA at colder temperatures and low relative humidity conditions due to its heterogeneous OH oxidation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A hierarchical gray-box dynamic modeling methodology for direct-expansion cooling systems to support control stability analysis; Méthodologie de modélisation dynamique hiérarchique de type boîte grise pour les systèmes de refroidissement à détente directe afin de soutenir l'analyse de stabilité de la commande

In this paper, a gray-box dynamic modeling approach for direct-expansion cooling systems is presented. The overall approach incorporates a multi-stage training procedure that consists of 1) identification of component sub-models from quasi-steady-state performance data, 2) system model integration with estimation of refrigerant charge and 3) fine tuning of thermal capacitances of the evaporator and condenser to capture the system dynamic responses. Compared to traditional physics-based models, the proposed modeling approach has advantages including reduced engineering efforts in the model development phase, improved computational efficiency and enhanced prediction accuracy. The modeling method was validated using a 3-ton variable-speed heat pump and proved to be capable of accurately predicting the system transient behaviors over a wide range of operating conditions. The established dynamic model was then applied for control stability analysis, with a specific goal of determining a proper control execution time step. The case study results showed that the stable control execution time step could change significantly, from 3 sec to 19 sec, as the operating conditions and control settings vary, and a proper selection of the execution time step is critical to ensure stable and reliable operations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Structural properties of aqueous grown polydopamine thin films determined by neutron reflectometry

Here, in this work, neutron reflectometry (NR) studies of the bio-mimetic polymer, polydopamine (PDA), deposited from differing initial concentrations of precursor material dopamine hydrochloride for a range of polymerization times, is reported. PDA can form a complex and highly versatile polymer film, with many structure studies having been performed previously, but a comprehensive structural determination of PDA by NR is lacking in the literature. It was found that simple box models were incapable of fully explaining the observed data, necessitating the use of a composite model consisting of the weighted average of both the 1 and 2 box models to fully capture the heterogeneous nature of the PDA film structure. Confocal laser scanning microscopy (CLSM) and atomic force microscopy (AFM) were performed to capture the surface structure and relative mechanical difference between the separate domains of the PDA. The CLSM results provide evidence that the PDA domains are larger than the coherent scattering length of a neutron used in these measurements, 10μm, supporting the need for a composite model. The AFM measurements show complex structure below the coherence length provide physical justification for the two box model. It was determined that film structure and quality are both heavily impacted by the initial concentration of dopamine hydrochloride and the polymerization time, giving confidence to the highly customizable nature of PDA as an adhesion promoting interface treatment in composite systems, such as plastic bonded explosives (PBX).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Surrogate Model of Flexible Research Platform EnergyPlus Models to Enable Sensitivity Analysis

This letter report describes the surrogate models developed from the EnergyPlus model of Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Flexible Research Platform. Two data-driven black-box models were developed, and the outputs of the surrogate models were compared with the EnergyPlus model. The two models developed are a multilayer perceptron deep learning model, and a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network model. The three factors for selecting the black-box models are scalability, computation time, and accuracy. A total of 107 input variables were the dominant variables in determining the outputs of building energy consumptions and thermal comfort. A total of 54 output variables were identified as the prediction targets, including the system- and zone-level outputs. The large set of the simulation cases were generated by integrating sensor errors into an emulator based on EnergyPlus and Python EMS, which includes advanced control sequences from ASHRAE Guideline 36-2018: High-Performance Sequences of Operation. The surrogate models were developed based on a set of large-scale simulation runs (i.e., 4,000 runs) on a cloud platform. The comparison analysis shows that the two black-box models had good accuracy for predicting new outputs for sensitivity analysis using the root mean square error metric. As a next step, the developed surrogate models will be used to perform sensitivity analysis for different sensor impacts (e.g., sensor types, sensor locations).

42 ENGINEERING↗

Multitarget control models for building thermal comfort and indoor air quality - A critical review

The control techniques in buildings contribute significantly to thermal comfort and indoor air quality (IAQ). However, the gaps are existing for multitarget controls considering both thermal comfort and IAQ. They are: (1) both experimental and modeling control studies were conducted for thermal comfort, focusing on temperature and humidity. (2) All three (physical, grey-box, black-box) modeling approaches were investigated for temperature control. (3) Physical and grey-box modeling approach were adopted for humidity control. (4) physical models were developed for VOCs and CO2 control. (5) grey-box and black-box models were lacking for VOCs and CO2. (6) Multi-target controls were lacking for temperature, humidity and CO2s. (7) Limited studies are available for multi-target controls for temperature, humidity, and VOCs. (8) Multi-target controls are not available yet for temperature, humidity, VOCs, and CO2.

42 ENGINEERING↗

AMORE-Isoprene v1.0: a new reduced mechanism for gas-phase isoprene oxidation

Abstract. Gas-phase oxidation of isoprene by ozone (O3) and the hydroxyl (OH) and nitrate (NO3) radicals significantly impacts tropospheric oxidant levels and secondary organic aerosol formation. The most comprehensive and up-to-date chemical mechanism for isoprene oxidation consists of several hundred species and over 800 reactions. Therefore, the computational expense of including the entire mechanism in large-scale atmospheric chemical transport models is usually prohibitive, and most models employ reduced isoprene mechanisms ranging in size from ∼ 10 to ∼ 200 species. We have developed a new reduced isoprene oxidation mechanism using a directed-graph path-based automated model reduction approach, with minimal manual adjustment of the output mechanism. The approach takes as inputs a full isoprene oxidation mechanism, the environmental parameter space, and a list of priority species which are protected from elimination during the reduction process. Our reduced mechanism, AMORE-Isoprene (where AMORE stands for Automated Model Reduction), consists of 12 species which are unique to the isoprene mechanism as well as 22 reactions. We demonstrate its performance in a box model in comparison with experimental data from the literature and other current isoprene oxidation mechanisms. AMORE-Isoprene's performance with respect to predicting the time evolution of isoprene oxidation products, including isoprene epoxydiols (IEPOX) and formaldehyde, is favorable compared with other similarly sized mechanisms. When AMORE-Isoprene is included in the Community Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Multiphase Mechanism 1.0 (CRACMM1AMORE) in the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ, v5.3.3), O3 and formaldehyde agreement with Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Air Quality System observations is improved. O3 bias is reduced by 3.4 ppb under daytime conditions for O3 concentrations over 50 ppb. Formaldehyde bias is reduced by 0.26 ppb on average for all formaldehyde measurements compared with the base CRACMM1. There was no significant change in computation time between CRACMM1AMORE and the base CRACMM. AMORE-Isoprene shows a 35 % improvement in agreement between simulated IEPOX concentrations and chamber data over the base CRACMM1 mechanism when compared in the Framework for 0-D Atmospheric Modeling (F0AM) box model framework. This work demonstrates a new highly reduced isoprene mechanism and shows the potential value of automated model reduction for complex reaction systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Optimal Methods for Estimating Cactus Pear Biomass Using Cladode Dimensions of Morphologically Diverse Accessions

Current allometric methods for photosynthetic-stem (cladode) plants, such as cactus pear (Opuntia spp.), require refinement to be used in field settings in which diverse accessions are grown. We analysed cladode dimensional data using 14 accessions representing four species and two hybrids to quantify statistically significant morphological differences among accessions and derived cross-accession models to approximate cladode fresh weight. A Box model using cladode dimensions (e.g., length, width, thickness and diameter) and factorial combinations of these measures (e.g., length*width*thickness*diameter vs. fresh weight) resulted in the highest coefficient of determination (R 2 = 0.95 general fit) across all accessions for estimating fresh weight along with parsimony estimates using the Schwarz–Bayes Criterion (SBC), which assesses the most consistent performance on individual accessions. A Fitting-box modelling approach used the measured cladode area captured using ImageJ (R 2 = 0.93 general fit). Lastly, an Elliptical model used an elliptical approximation for the measured area and performed well over all accessions (R 2 = 0.94 general fit) while avoiding extensive manual measurements. These models meet or exceed the performance of previously published approaches when applied across morphologically diverse accessions, providing efficient tools for nondestructive estimation of cactus pear biomass under the conditions tested.

Opuntia↗

Immersion Freezing in Particle-Based Aerosol-Cloud Microphysics: A Probabilistic Perspective on Singular and Time-Dependent Models

Cloud droplets containing immersed ice-nucleating particles (INPs) may freeze at temperatures above the homogeneous freezing threshold temperature in a process referred to as immersion freezing. In modeling studies, immersion freezing is often described using either so-called “singular” or “time-dependent” parameterizations. Here, we compare both approaches and discuss them in the context of probabilistic particle-based (super-droplet) cloud microphysics modeling. First, using a box model, we contrast how both parameterizations respond to idealized ambient cooling rate profiles and quantify the impact of the polydispersity of the immersed surface spectrum on the frozen fraction evolution. Presented simulations highlight that the singular approach, constituting a time-integrated form of a more general time-dependent approach, is only accurate under a limited range of ambient cooling rates. The time-dependent approach is free from this limitation. Second, using a prescribed-flow two-dimensional cloud model, we illustrate the macroscopic differences in the evolution in time of ice particle concentrations in simulations with flow regimes relevant to ambient cloud conditions. The flow-coupled aerosol-budget-resolving simulations highlight the benefits and challenges of modeling cloud condensation nuclei activation and immersion freezing on insoluble ice nuclei with super-particle methods. The challenges stem, on the one hand, from heterogeneous ice nucleation being contingent on the presence of relatively sparse immersed INPs, and on the other hand, from the need to represent a vast population of particles with relatively few so-called super particles (each representing a multiplicity of real particles). We discuss the critical role of the sampling strategy for particle attributes, including the INP size, the freezing temperature (for singular scheme) and the multiplicity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Transport and chemistry of isoprene and its oxidation products in deep convective clouds

Deep convective clouds can transport trace gases from the planetary boundary layer into the upper troposphere where subsequent chemistry may impact aerosol particle formation and growth. In this modelling study, we investigate processes that affect isoprene and its oxidation products injected into the upper troposphere by an isolated deep convective cloud in the Amazon. We run a photochemical box model with coupled cloud microphysics along hundreds of individual air parcel trajectories sampled from a cloud-resolving model simulation of a convective event. The box model simulates gas-phase chemical reactions, gas scavenging by liquid and ice hydrometeors, and turbulent dilution inside a deep convective cloud. The results illustrate the potential importance of gas uptake to anvil ice in regulating the intensity of the isoprene oxidation and associated low volatility organic vapour concentrations in the outflow. Isoprene transport and fate also depends on the abundance of lightning-generated nitrogen oxide radicals (NO x = NO + NO 2 ). If gas uptake on ice is efficient and lightning activity is low, around 30% of the boundary layer isoprene will survive to the cloud outflow after approximately one hour of transport, while all the low volatile oxidation products will be scavenged by the cloud hydrometeors. If lightning NO x is abundant and gas uptake by ice is inefficient, then all isoprene will be oxidised during transport or in the immediate outflow region, while several low volatility isoprene oxidation products will have elevated concentrations in the cloud outflow. Reducing uncertainties associated with the uptake of vapours on ice hydrometeors, especially HO 2 and oxygenated organics, is essential to improve predictions of isoprene and its oxidation products in deep convective outflows and their potential contribution to new particle formation and growth.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The potential role of organics in new particle formation and initial growth in the remote tropical upper troposphere

Abstract. Global observations and model studies indicate that new particle formation (NPF) in the upper troposphere (UT) and subsequent particles supply 40 %–60 % of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) in the lower troposphere, thus affecting the Earth's radiative budget. There are several plausible nucleation mechanisms and precursor species in this atmospheric region, which, in the absence of observational constraints, lead to uncertainties in modeled aerosols. In particular, the type of nucleation mechanism and concentrations of nucleation precursors, in part, determine the spatial distribution of new particles and resulting spatial distribution of CCN from this source. Although substantial advances in understanding NPF have been made in recent years, NPF processes in the UT in pristine marine regions are still poorly understood and are inadequately represented in global models. Here, we evaluate commonly used and state-of-the-art NPF schemes in a Lagrangian box model to assess which schemes and precursor concentrations best reproduce detailed in situ observations. Using measurements of aerosol size distributions (0.003 < Dp < 4.8 µm) in the remote marine troposphere between ∼0.18 and 13 km altitude obtained during the NASA Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission, we show that high concentrations of newly formed particles in the tropical UT over both the Atlantic and Pacific oceans are associated with outflow regions of deep convective clouds. We focus analysis on observations over the remote Pacific Ocean, which is a region less perturbed by continental emissions than the Atlantic. Comparing aerosol size distribution measurements over the remote Pacific with box model simulations for 32 cases shows that none of the NPF schemes most commonly used in global models, including binary nucleation of sulfuric acid and water (neutral and ion-assisted) and ternary involving sulfuric acid, water, and ammonia, are consistent with observations, regardless of precursor concentrations. Through sensitivity studies, we find that the nucleation scheme among those tested that is able to explain most consistently (21 of 32 cases) the observed size distributions is that of Riccobono et al. (2014), which involves both organic species and sulfuric acid. The method of Dunne et al. (2016), involving charged sulfuric acid–water–ammonia nucleation, when coupled with organic growth of the nucleated particles, was most consistent with the observations for 5 of 32 cases. Similarly, the neutral sulfuric acid–water–ammonia method of Napari (2002), when scaled with a tuning factor and with organic growth added, was most consistent for 6 of 32 cases. We find that to best reproduce both nucleation and growth rates, the mixing ratios of gas-phase organic precursors generally need to be at least twice that of SO2, a proxy for dimethyl sulfide (DMS). Unfortunately, we have no information on the nature of oxidized organic species that participated in NPF in this region. Global models rarely include organic-driven nucleation and growth pathways in UT conditions where globally significant NPF takes place, which may result in poor estimates of NPF and CCN abundance and contribute to uncertainties in aerosol–cloud–radiation effects. Furthermore, our results indicate that the organic aerosol precursor vapors may be important in the tropical UT above marine regions, a finding that should guide future observational efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Exploration of oxidative chemistry and secondary organic aerosol formation in the Amazon during the wet season: explicit modeling of the Manaus urban plume with GECKO-A

The GoAmazon 2014/5 field campaign took place in Manaus, Brazil, and allowed the investigation of the interaction between background-level biogenic air masses and anthropogenic plumes. We present in this work a box model built to simulate the impact of urban chemistry on biogenic secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation and composition. An organic chemistry mechanism is generated with the Generator for Explicit Chemistry and Kinetics of Organics in the Atmosphere (GECKO-A) to simulate the explicit oxidation of biogenic and anthropogenic compounds. A parameterization is also included to account for the reactive uptake of isoprene oxidation products on aqueous particles. The biogenic emissions estimated from existing emission inventories had to be reduced to match measurements. The model is able to reproduce ozone and NO x for clean and polluted situations. The explicit model is able to reproduce background case SOA mass concentrations but does not capture the enhancement observed in the urban plume. The oxidation of biogenic compounds is the major contributor to SOA mass. A volatility basis set (VBS) parameterization applied to the same cases obtains better results than GECKO-A for predicting SOA mass in the box model. The explicit mechanism may be missing SOA-formation processes related to the oxidation of monoterpenes that could be implicitly accounted for in the VBS parameterization.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Integration of a grey-box refrigerated case model in EnergyPlus via Python plugin

Commercial buildings, in particular grocery stores (due mainly to their large refrigeration load), provide opportunities for energy cost reductions. Grocery stores could offer substantial load flexibility to the power grid through participation in demand response programs because of their usage patterns and relatively high energy intensity. This load flexibility could come from modifying the control of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, refrigeration systems, or both. Although estimation of the HVAC system’s load flexibility potential is relatively targeted in the literature, estimating load flexibility of refrigeration systems is nascent and has been a challenge, in part because of the lack of proper simulation tools that capture the dynamics in the refrigeration cases. The existing refrigerated case model within EnergyPlus, a whole building energy simulation program, assumes a constant case temperature throughout the simulation period and does not explicitly model the cycling of the compressor serving the refrigerated case. In addition, it does not encompass modeling of temperatures of the product inside the refrigerated case. This difference between modeled and actual operation can be a barrier to the development of demand control algorithm and accurate analysis of load flexibility potential. In this paper, we present a grey-box model for modeling refrigerated cases in grocery stores, which include medium temperature and low temperature. Four cases are modeled; two are low-temperature closed cases and two are medium-temperature cases with one closed and one open. Data from an experimental facility are used to train and test the models. Results demonstrate the efficacy of the grey-box models in predicting the temperatures. This model is integrated into EnergyPlus to capture the dynamic effects of case temperature on the environment and enhance the calculation of sensible and latent heat exchange with the environment (case credits). These enhancements can be leveraged more broadly to model advanced refrigeration controls such as defrost, develop and test unique algorithms that could affect refrigeration interactions with HVAC, and refine store design for any commercial building with refrigeration.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Midlatitude Ozone Depletion and Air Quality Impacts from Industrial Halogen Emissions in the Great Salt Lake Basin

We report aircraft observations of extreme levels of HCl and the dihalogens Cl 2 , Br 2 , and BrCl in an industrial plume near the Great Salt Lake, Utah. Complete depletion of O 3 was observed concurrently with halogen enhancements as a direct result of photochemically produced halogen radicals. Observed fluxes for Cl 2 , HCl, and NO x agreed with facility-reported emissions inventories. Bromine emissions are not required to be reported in the inventory, but are estimated as 173 Mg year –1 Br 2 and 949 Mg year –1 BrCl, representing a major uncounted oxidant source. A zero-dimensional photochemical box model reproduced the observed O 3 depletions and demonstrated that bromine radical cycling was principally responsible for the rapid O 3 depletion. Inclusion of observed halogen emissions in both the box model and a 3D chemical model showed significant increases in oxidants and particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) in the populated regions of the Great Salt Lake Basin, where winter PM 2.5 is among the most severe air quality issues in the U.S. The model shows regional PM 2.5 increases of 10%–25% attributable to this single industrial halogen source, demonstrating the impact of underreported industrial bromine emissions on oxidation sources and air quality within a major urban area of the western U.S.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Investigation of the Performance and Explainability Tradeoffs for Machine-Learning Models for Predictive Maintenance of Circulating Water Systems in Nuclear Power Plants

Predictive maintenance (PdM) has shown great potential for achieving substantial cost savings and enhancing the economic competitiveness of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in today's energy market. Among the different modeling approaches that exist, machine learning (ML) tools in particular have a demonstrated ability to handle high dimensional and multivariate data and to extract hidden relationships within data in industrial environments. While ML methods show great potential, their lack of explainability---especially for black-box models---is a major hurdle to their adoption. Moreover, considering the supposed trade-off between explainability and performance challenges, careful consideration must be made as to which of these quality aspects takes precedence in light of multiple modeling options, resource availability, and domain characteristics. The present work evaluates the performance of six ML models, each with a different degree of explainability, in classifying the conditions of circulating water pumps (CWPs) by utilizing sensor data from nuclear power plants. To determine the drivers behind the trade-offs presented by this array of models, this work also tests different combinations of CWP units as the training and testing data, degrees of data imbalance, and objective functions for hyperparameter tuning. It was found that black-box models tend to afford superior performance in cases where there are far more instances of one type of labeled data than of any other type. It is recommended that a guided procedure be followed for designing and delivering an ML system that is sufficiently explainable to all involved stakeholders.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Understanding oxidation of Fe-Cr-Al alloys through explainable artificial intelligence

Abstract The oxidation resistance of FeCrAl based on alloying composition and oxidizing conditions is predicted using a combinatorial experimental and artificial intelligence approach. A neural network (NN) classification model was trained on the experimental FeCrAl dataset produced at GE Research. Furthermore, using the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) tool, we explore how the NN can showcase further material insights that are unavailable directly from a black-box model. We report that high Al and Cr content forms protective oxide layer, while Mo in FeCrAl creates thick unprotective oxide scale that is vulnerable to spallation due to thermal expansion. Graphical abstract

Materials Science↗