Influences of Cloud Vertical Overlapping on the Calculated Cloud Albedo and Their Validation with Satellite Observations
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
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Integration of Total-Sky Imager Data with a Physics-Based Smart Persistence Model for Intra-Hour Forecasting of Solar Radiation
Short-term solar forecasting models based solely on global horizontal irradiance (GHI) measurements are often unable to discriminate the forecasting of the factors affecting GHI from those that can be precisely computed by atmospheric models. Our previous study introduced a Physics-based Smart Persistence model for Intra-hour forecasting of solar radiation (PSPI) that decomposed the forecasting of GHI into the computation of extraterrestrial solar radiation and solar zenith angle and the forecasting of cloud albedo and cloud fraction. The extraterrestrial solar radiation and solar zenith angle were accurately computed by the Solar Position Algorithm (SPA) developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). A cloud retrieval technique was used to estimate cloud albedo and cloud fraction from surface-based observations of GHI. With the assumption of persistent cloud structures, the cloud albedo and cloud fraction were predicted for future time steps using a two-stream approximation and a 5-minute exponential weighted moving average, respectively. The model evaluation indicated the estimation and forecast of cloud fraction mostly contributed to the uncertainty of the PSPI though it overcame the persistence and smart persistence models in all forecast time horizons between 5 and 60 minutes. This study aims to enhance the PSPI by ingesting surface-based observations of cloud fraction from a total sky imager (TSI). The estimation and forecast of cloud albedo is correspondingly improved by utilizing the cloud fraction observations and thus leads to more accurate GHI forecast. Various time-series analysis methods are also investigated on the forecasting of cloud fraction and cloud albedo for further improving the GHI forecast. These improvements are valuable for many applications, such as forecasting energy use for buildings, grid operations, and ultimately bringing down the cost of solar energy.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Low-power millimeter-wave radar observations of the atmosphere
Historically, cloud structures, dynamics, and precipitation processes have been observed and measured with sensors from two different spatial resolutions. Laser-based sensors have volume resolutions on the order of 10(exp -4) to 10(exp -2) cubic meters for a 1-s sample. Radar systems operating at wavelengths between 1 and 10 cm have resolutions on the order of 10(exp 4) to 10(exp 7) cubic meters. The resolutions of micro-wave systems depend primarily on the system RF bandwidth and antenna bandwidth. Both resolution regimes were useful in the study of cloud structures and processes - the former for determining resolution on the individual cloud particle scale and the latter for studying the coarse characteristics of cloud dynamics and structure. There are, however, cloud processes and structures that occur on scales that lie between these two regimes: the process of entrainment, where outside air is brought within the cloud boundaries; the mixing of in-cloud particles with different histories; cloud particle coalescence; and ice formation. The use of mm-wave (30- to 300-GHz) radars offers an opportunity to observe cloud processes at these scales and determine their influence on precipitation development, cloud albedos, cloud lifetimes, chemical cycling of tract substances, aircraft icing, and other meteorological phenomena. To determine the usefulness of a 35-GHz radar for observing these precipitation and cloud processes, a research program was initiated. The objectives of this program are to develop a 35-GHz radar, to measure scattering from precipitation and clouds, and to develop a model to compute scattering from clouds using the finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) technique.
Ronnau, James F.↗
An eight-month climatology of marine stratocumulus cloud fraction, albedo, and integrated liquid water
As part of the FIRE/Extended Time Observations (ETO) program, extended time observations were made at San Nicolas Island (SNI) from March to October, 1987. Hourly averages of air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, solar irradiance, and downward longwave irradiance were recorded. The radiation sensors were standard Eppley pyranometers (shortwave) and pyrgeometers (longwave). The SNI data were processed in several ways to deduce properties of the stratocumulus covered marine boundary layer (MBL). For example, from the temperature and humidity the lifting condensation level, which is an estimate of the height of the cloud bottom, can be computed. A combination of longwave irradiance statistics can be used to estimate fractional cloud cover. An analysis technique used to estimate the integrated cloud liquid water content (W) and the cloud albedo from the measured solar irradiance is also described. In this approach, the cloud transmittance is computed by dividing the irradiance measured at some time by a clear sky value obtained at the same hour on a cloudless day. From the transmittance and the zenith angle, values of cloud albedo and W are computed using the radiative transfer parameterizations of Stephens (1978). These analysis algorithms were evaluated with 17 days of simultaneous and colocated mm-wave (20.6 and 31.65 GHz) radiometer measurements of W and lidar ceilometer measurements of cloud fraction and cloudbase height made during the FIRE IFO. The algorithms are then applied to the entire data set to produce a climatology of these cloud properties for the eight month period.
Fairall, C. W.↗
Independent Pixel and Two Dimensional Estimates of LANDSAT-Derived Cloud Field Albedo
A theoretical study has been conducted on the effects of cloud horizontal inhomogeneity on cloud albedo bias. A two-dimensional (2D) version of the Spherical Harmonic Discrete Ordinate Method (SHDOM) is used to estimate the albedo bias of the plane parallel (PP-IPA) and independent pixel (IPA-2D) approximations for a wide range of 2D cloud fields obtained from LANDSAT. They include single layer trade cumulus, open and closed cell broken stratocumulus, and solid stratocumulus boundary layer cloud fields over ocean. Findings are presented on a variety of averaging scales and are summarized as a function of cloud fraction, mean cloud optical depth, cloud aspect ratio, standard deviation of optical depth, and the gamma function parameter Y (a measure of the width of the optical depth distribution). Biases are found to be small for small cloud fraction or mean optical depth, where the cloud fields under study behave linearly. They are large (up to 0.20 for PP-IPA bias, -0.12 for IPA-2D bias) for large v. On a scene average basis PP-IPA bias can reach 0.30, while IPA-2D bias reaches its largest magnitude at -0.07. Biases due to horizontal transport (IPA-2D) are much smaller than PP-IPA biases but account for 20% RMS of the bias overall. Limitations of this work include the particular cloud field set used, assumptions of conservative scattering, constant cloud droplet size, no gas absorption or surface reflectance, and restriction to 2D radiative transport. The LANDSAT data used may also be affected by radiative smoothing.
Chambers, L. H.↗
Daytime variation in the aerosol indirect effect for warm marine boundary layer clouds in the eastern North Atlantic
Abstract. Warm boundary layer clouds in the eastern North Atlantic region exhibit significant diurnal variations in cloud properties. However, the diurnal cycle of the aerosol indirect effect (AIE) for these clouds remains poorly understood. This study takes advantage of recent advancements in the spatial resolution of geostationary satellites to explore the daytime variation in the AIE by estimating the cloud susceptibilities to changes in cloud droplet number concentration (Nd). Cloud retrievals for the month of July over 4 years (2018–2021) from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) on Meteosat-11 over this region are analyzed. Our results reveal a significant “U-shaped” daytime cycle in susceptibilities of the cloud liquid water path (LWP), cloud albedo, and cloud fraction. Clouds are found to be more susceptible to Nd perturbations at noon and less susceptible in the morning and evening. The magnitude and sign of cloud susceptibilities depend heavily on the cloud state defined by cloud LWP and precipitation conditions. Non-precipitating thin clouds account for 44 % of all warm boundary layer clouds in July, and they contribute the most to the observed daytime variation. Non-precipitating thick clouds are the least frequent cloud state (10 %), and they exhibit more negative LWP and albedo susceptibilities compared to thin clouds. Precipitating clouds are the dominant cloud state (46 %), but their cloud susceptibilities show minimal variation throughout the day. We find evidence that the daytime variation in LWP and albedo susceptibilities for non-precipitating clouds is influenced by a combination of the diurnal transition between non-precipitating thick and thin clouds and the “lagged” cloud responses to Nd perturbations. The daytime variation in cloud fraction susceptibility for non-precipitating thick clouds can be attributed to the daytime variation in cloud morphology (e.g., overcast or broken). The dissipation and development of clouds do not adequately explain the observed variation in cloud susceptibilities. Additionally, daytime variation in cloud susceptibility is primarily driven by variation in the intensity of cloud response rather than the frequency of occurrence of cloud states. Our results imply that polar-orbiting satellites with an overpass time at 13:30 LT underestimate daytime mean values of cloud susceptibility, as they observe susceptibility daily minima in the study region.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
A time variable model of Earth's albedo
A time variable model of Earth's albedo was prepared for use in climate studies and as an aid to the interpretation of satellite Earth radiation budget data. The features of the model include: a 10 deg latitude 10 deg longitude grid for numerical integration, surface albedo specified at 1 month intervals, calculation of zenith angle effect for surface albedo and of the additional effect of the atmosphere on the albedo. Percent cloud cover is specified for 29 different climatological cloud type regions at 8 times of the day for 12 months of the year. Cloud albedos were specified for each of the cloud climatological types. Diurnal and monthly variations of this model are described and results are compared with a model which is based on satellite measurements. A computer program was also written for use in studying the sampling effects in satellite radiation budget measurements. An example of the results of calculations with this program are compared with a previous study of the sampling effects. This program for satellite orbit characteristics is to be combined with the time-variable albedo model for further study of the sampling problem.
Bartman, F. L.↗
Statistical dependence of albedo and cloud cover on sea surface temperature for two tropical marine stratocumulus regions
The relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and albedo or cloud cover is examined for two tropical regions with high values of cloud radiative forcing and persistent marine stratocumulus (mSc)-one off the west coast of Peru, the other off the west coast of Angola. The data span five years, from December 1984 to November 1989. Albedos are from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE), cloud covers are from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), and SSTS are from the Climate Analysis Center. Negative correlation coefficients between albedo and SST are found to be about -0.8 when the seasonal variation of the entire dataset is analyzed. The interannual variation and the spatial variation of individual months also yields correlation coefficients that are negative. The correlation between cloud cover and SST is found to be similar to but weaker than the correlation between albedo and SST, suggesting a decrease in cloud amount and a decrease in cloud albedo with increasing SST for these regions. The corresponding albedo sensitivity averages -0.018/K with local values reaching -0.04/K. These findings are valid from 19 C to 25 C for the Peru mSc and 22 C to 27 C for the Angola mSc. These temperatures approximately bound the domains over which mSc is the prevalent cloud type within each region. These results imply a potential positive feedback to global warming by marine stratocumulus that ranges from approximately 0.14 W/sq m/K to approximately 1 W/sq m/K, depending on whether or not our results apply to all marine stratocumulus. While these values are uncertain to at least +/- 50%, the sensitivity of albedo to sea surface temperature in the present climate may serve as a useful diagnostic tool in monitoring the performance of global climate models.
Oreopoulos, Lazaros↗
Radiative forcing from the 2020 shipping fuel regulation is large but hard to detect
Reduction in aerosol cooling unmasks greenhouse gas warming, exacerbating the rate of future warming. The strict sulfur regulation on shipping fuel implemented in 2020 (IMO2020) presents an opportunity to assess the potential impacts of such emission regulations and the detectability of deliberate aerosol perturbations for climate intervention. Here we employ machine learning to capture cloud natural variability and estimate a radiative forcing of +0.074 ±0.005 W m -2 related to IMO2020 associated with changes in shortwave cloud radiative effect over three low-cloud regions where shipping routes prevail. We find low detectability of the cloud radiative effect of this event, attributed to strong natural variability in cloud albedo and cloud cover. Regionally, detectability is higher for the southeastern Atlantic stratocumulus deck. These results raise concerns that future reductions in aerosol emissions will accelerate warming and that proposed deliberate aerosol perturbations such as marine cloud brightening will need to be substantial in order to overcome the low detectability.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Validation of the Two-Layer Model for Correcting Clear Sky Reflectance Near Clouds
A two-layer model was developed in our earlier studies to estimate the clear sky reflectance enhancement near clouds. This simple model accounts for the radiative interaction between boundary layer clouds and molecular layer above, the major contribution to the reflectance enhancement near clouds for short wavelengths. We use LES/SHDOM simulated 3D radiation fields to valid the two-layer model for reflectance enhancement at 0.47 micrometer. We find: (a) The simple model captures the viewing angle dependence of the reflectance enhancement near cloud, suggesting the physics of this model is correct; and (b) The magnitude of the 2-layer modeled enhancement agree reasonably well with the "truth" with some expected underestimation. We further extend our model to include cloud-surface interaction using the Poisson model for broken clouds. We found that including cloud-surface interaction improves the correction, though it can introduced some over corrections for large cloud albedo, large cloud optical depth, large cloud fraction, large cloud aspect ratio. This over correction can be reduced by excluding scenes (10 km x 10km) with large cloud fraction for which the Poisson model is not designed for. Further research is underway to account for the contribution of cloud-aerosol radiative interaction to the enhancement.
two-layer model↗
Use of physics to improve solar forecast: Part III, impacts of different cloud types
Cloud-type impacts present a great challenge to solar forecasting due to diverse and complex cloud-radiation interactions. This third part of our paper sequence seeks to address this challenge by quantifying the forecast accuracies under eight cloud types: cumulus (Cu), stratified clouds (St), altocumulus (Ac), altostratus (As), cirrostratus/anvil (Cr), cirrus (Ci), congestus (Co), deep convective clouds (Dc) across four physics-informed persistence models reported in Part I. To generalize the cloud impacts, the eight cloud types are further grouped into three cloud categories based on their common features: weak convective clouds, stratiform clouds, and strong convective clouds. Here, the decade-long (2001 ~ 2014) collocated measurements of irradiances and cloud types at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program South Great Plain (SGP) Central Facility site are used for model evaluation. Results reveal a clear performance hierarchy for global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI): best for weak convective clouds and cirrus, intermediate for stratiform clouds, and worst for strong convective clouds. Performance for diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) is less influenced by cloud types. Cloud albedo dominates all three irradiances for Dc, while both cloud albedo and cloud fraction are influential for other cloud types. A 12 %~33 % improvement in accuracy at 6-hour lead time compared to the benchmark smart model confirms the effectiveness of incorporating physics into the models for various cloud types; further improvements are expected by directly integrating cloud type information into forecasting models by modifying the physical formulation of cloud-radiation interaction, and/or using more advanced machine learning models.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Microphysical, Macrophysical and Radiative Signatures of Volcanic Aerosols in Trade Wind Cumulus Observed by the A-Train
Increased aerosol concentrations can raise planetary albedo not only by reflecting sunlight and increasing cloud albedo, but also by changing cloud amount. However, detecting aerosol effect on cloud amount has been elusive to both observations and modeling due to potential buffering mechanisms and convolution of meteorology. Here through a natural experiment provided by long-tem1 degassing of a low-lying volcano and use of A-Train satellite observations, we show modifications of trade cumulus cloud fields including decreased droplet size, decreased precipitation efficiency and increased cloud amount are associated with volcanic aerosols. In addition we find significantly higher cloud tops for polluted clouds. We demonstrate that the observed microphysical and macrophysical changes cannot be explained by synoptic meteorology or the orographic effect of the Hawaiian Islands. The "total shortwave aerosol forcin", resulting from direct and indirect forcings including both cloud albedo and cloud amount. is almost an order of magnitude higher than aerosol direct forcing alone. Furthermore, the precipitation reduction associated with enhanced aerosol leads to large changes in the energetics of air-sea exchange and trade wind boundary layer. Our results represent the first observational evidence of large-scale increase of cloud amount due to aerosols in a trade cumulus regime, which can be used to constrain the representation of aerosol-cloud interactions in climate models. The findings also have implications for volcano-climate interactions and climate mitigation research.
Yuan, T.↗
Performance of Cloud 3D Solvers in Ice Cloud Shortwave Radiation Closure Over the Equatorial Western Pacific Ocean
Abstract For retrieving cloud optical properties from satellite images or computing these properties from climate model output, computationally efficient treatments of cloud horizontal inhomogeneity include the Monte Carlo Independent Column Approximation (McICA) and the Tripleclouds method. Computationally efficient treatment of cloud horizontal radiation exchanges includes the SPeedy Algorithm for Radiative TrAnsfer through CloUd Sides (SPARTACUS). As a test to derive properties from satellite images, we collocate Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cloud retrievals with near‐nadir Cloud and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) footprints in July 2008 over an equatorial western Pacific Ocean region to compare the performance of the McICA, Tripleclouds, and SPARTACUS solvers to the conventional plane‐parallel homogeneous (PPH) treatment. PPH overestimates cloud albedo, and the three solvers effectively reduce overestimation with root mean square error of shortwave upwelling irradiance decreasing between 15.72 and 18.53 W m −2 , or about 22%–25%. Although cloud top variability does not get fed into the simulations, all three solvers also reduce the effect of cloud top variability on cloud albedo. Entrapment (energy reflected downward from clouds) and horizontal radiation transfer have opposite effects on the SPARTACUS cloud albedo simulation. The net effect depends on the cloud vertical extent, the unawareness of which limits the performance of the SPARTACUS solver.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Reduction of Cloud Water in Ship Tracks: Observations and Large-Eddy Simulations
Ship tracks represent a natural laboratory to study the effects of aerosols on clouds. A number of observations and simulations have shown that increased droplet concentrations in ship tracks increase their total cross-sectional area, thereby enhancing cloud albedo and providing a negative radiative forcing at the surface and the top of the atmosphere. In some cases, cloud water has been found to be enhanced in ship tracks, which has been attributed to suppression of drizzle and implies an enhanced susceptibility of cloud albedo to droplet concentrations. However, more recently compiled observations indicate that cloud water is instead reduced in daytime ship tracks on average. Such a response is consistent with cloud-burning due to solar absorption by soot (the semi-direct radiative forcing of aerosols), recently suggested to be suppressing trade cumulus cloud coverage over the Indian Ocean. We will summarize observational evidence and present large-eddy simulations that consider these competing mechanisms in the effects of aerosols on cloud albedo.
Ackerman, A. S.↗
A Consistent Representation of Cloud Overlap and Cloud Subgrid Vertical Heterogeneity
Many global climate models underestimate the cloud cover and overestimate the cloud albedo, especially for low-level clouds. We determine how a correct representation of the vertical structure of clouds can fix part of this bias. We use the 1D McICA framework and focus on low-level clouds. Using Large Eddy Simulations results as reference, we propose a method based on exponential-random overlap that represents the cloud overlap between layers and the subgrid cloud properties over several vertical scales, with a single value of the overlap parameter. Starting from a coarse vertical grid, representative of atmospheric models, this algorithm is used to generate the vertical profile of the cloud fraction with a finer vertical resolution, or to generate it on the coarse grid but with subgrid heterogeneity and cloud overlap that ensures a correct cloud cover. Doing so we find decorrelation lengths are dependent on the vertical resolution, except if the vertical subgrid heterogeneity and interlayer overlap are taken into account coherently. We confirm that the frequently used maximum-random overlap leads to a significant error by underestimating the low-level cloud cover with a relative error of about 50%, that can lead to an error of SW cloud albedo as big as 70%. Not taking into account the subgrid vertical heterogeneity of clouds can cause a relative error of 20% in brightness, assuming the cloud cover is correct.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
An Earth radiation budget climate model
A 2-D Earth Radiation Budget Climate Model has been constructed from an OLWR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation) model and an Earth albedo model. Each of these models uses the same cloud cover climatology modified by a factor GLCLC which adjusts the global annual average cloud cover. The two models are linked by a set of equations which relate the cloud albedos to the cloud top temperatures of the OLWR model. These equations are derived from simultaneous narrow band satellite measurements of cloud top temperature and albedo. Initial results include global annual average values of albedo and latitude/longitude radiation for 45 percent and 57 percent global annual average cloud cover and two different forms of the cloud albedo-cloud top temperature equations.
Bartman, Fred L.↗
In situ measurements of ship tracks
It has long been known that cloud droplet concentrations are strongly influenced by cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and that anthropogenic sources of pollution can affect CCN concentrations. More recently it has been suggested that CCN may play an important role in climate through their effect on cloud albedo. A interesting example of the effect of anthropogenic CCN on cloud albedo is the so-called 'ship track' phenomenon. Ship tracks were first observed in satellite imagery when the ship's emissions were evidently needed for the formation of a visible cloud. However, they appear more frequently in satellite imagery as modifications to existing stratus and stratocumulus clouds. The tracks are seen most clearly in satellite imagery by comparing the radiance at 3.7 microns with that at 0.63 and 11 microns. To account for the observed change in radiance, droplet concentrations must be high, and the mean size of the droplets small, in ship tracks. Researchers describe what they believe to be the first in situ measurements in what appears to have been a ship track.
Radke, Lawrence F.↗