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Results for “conditional expectation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Estimating basis functions in massive fields under the spatial mixed effects model

Abstract Spatial prediction is commonly achieved under the assumption of a Gaussian random field by obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of parameters, and then using the kriging equations to arrive at predicted values. For massive datasets, fixed rank kriging using the expectation–maximization algorithm for estimation has been proposed as an alternative to the usual but computationally prohibitive kriging method. The method reduces computation cost of estimation by redefining the spatial process as a linear combination of basis functions and spatial random effects. A disadvantage of this method is that it imposes constraints on the relationship between the observed locations and the knots. We develop an alternative method that utilizes the spatial mixed effects model, but allows for additional flexibility by estimating the range of the spatial dependence between the observations and the knots via an alternating expectation conditional maximization algorithm. Experiments show that our methodology improves estimation without sacrificing prediction accuracy while also minimizing the additional computational burden of extra parameter estimation. The methodology is applied to a temperature dataset archived by the United States National Climate Data Center, with improved results over previous methodology.

Pazdernik, Karl↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Sparse-Grid Probabilistic Scheme for Approximation of the Runaway Probability of Electrons in Fusion Tokamak Simulation

Runaway electrons (RE) generated during magnetic disruptions present a major threat to the safe operation of plasma nuclear fusion reactors. A critical aspect of understanding RE dynamics is to calculate the runaway probability, i.e., the probability that an electron in the phase space will runaway on, or before, a prescribed time. Such probability can be obtained by solving the adjoint equation of the underlying Fokker-Planck equation that controls the electron dynamics. In this effort, we present a sparse-grid probabilistic scheme for computing the runaway probability. The key ingredient of our approach is to represent the solution of the adjoint equation as a conditional expectation, such that discretizing the differential operator reduces to the approximation of a set of integrals. Adaptive sparse grid interpolation is utilized to approximate the map from the phase space to the runaway probability. The main novelties of this effort are the integration of the sparse-grid method into the probabilistic numerical scheme for computing escape probability, and the application of the proposed method in computing RE probabilities. Two numerical examples are given to illustrate that the proposed method can achieve O(Δt) convergence, and that the local anisotropic adaptive refinement strategy (M. Stoyanov, Adaptive sparse grid construction in a context of local anisotropy and multiple hierarchical parents. In: Sparse Grids and Applications-Miami 2016, Springer, Berlin, 2018, pp. 175–199) can effectively handle the sharp transition layer between the runaway and non-runaway regions.

Yang, Minglei↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Efficient Numerical Algorithm for Solving Data Driven Feedback Control Problems

The goal of this paper is to solve a class of stochastic optimal control problems numerically, in which the state process is governed by an Itô type stochastic differential equation with control process entering both in the drift and the diffusion, and is observed partially. The optimal control of feedback form is determined based on the available observational data. In this work, we call this type of control problems the data driven feedback control. The computational framework that we introduce to solve such type of problems aims to find the best estimate for the optimal control as a conditional expectation given the observational information. To make our method feasible in providing timely feedback to the controlled system from data, we develop an efficient stochastic optimization algorithm to implement our computational framework.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Variational approach to relative entropies with an application to QFT

Abstract We define a new divergence of von Neumann algebras using a variational expression similar in nature to Kosaki’s formula for Umegaki’s relative entropy. Our divergence satisfies several of the usual desirable properties, upper bounds the sandwiched Renyi entropy and reduces to the fidelity in a limit. As an illustration, we use the formula in quantum field theory to compute our divergence between the vacuum in a bipartite system and an “orbifolded”—in the sense of a conditional expectation—system in terms of the Jones index. We take the opportunity to point out an entropic certainty relation associated with an inclusion of von Neumann factors related to the relative entropy. This certainty relation has an equivalent formulation in terms of error correcting codes.

Hollands, Stefan↗
DOE OSTI2021

Biomass and salt-dependent effects of Bacillus spores on radionuclide migration from the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

Spores of a Bacillus sp., isolated from radioactive waste, were tested for their ability to influence the fate and transport of neodymium (Nd3+) under high salt conditions expected at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) nuclear waste repository. Spores were suspended in neodymium-spiked saline solutions up to 4 M NaCl, and concentrations of Nd and the complexing agent dipicolinic acid (DPA), a component of spores, were monitored along with optical densities and spore numbers. Overall, results support neodymium bioassociation that is dependent upon biomass, with more apparent adsorption occurring at higher spore concentrations. However, probable spore lysis in 2 and 4 M NaCl solutions and possible germination at 0.15 M NaCl appear to drive the release of DPA and subsequent return of Nd to solution. The implications of this work for the WIPP will depend on actual biomass levels and the ionic strength of the repository brines.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optical Fiber Sensor with a Hydrophobic Filter Layer for Monitoring Hydrogen under Humid Conditions

Real-time and remote monitoring of hydrogen concentration in underground hydrogen storage reservoirs is crucial to maintaining the integrity and safety of the storage facilities. High humidity in the underground deposits interferes with hydrogen sensors, introducing inaccuracy into the hydrogen sensing measurements. A hydrophobic filter layer over a hydrogen sensing layer on an optical fiber hydrogen sensor was devised to minimize the impact of the humidity on the sensor. The hydrogen sensor coated with a hydrophobic filter layer demonstrated a significant improvement in reliable hydrogen sensing under high humidity conditions (99% RH) without severe baseline drift and reduction of transmission intensity. Finally, the optical fiber hydrogen sensor revamped with the filter layer would enable the reliable measurement of hydrogen concentration under the humid conditions expected in subsurface hydrogen storage facilities.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Structural and Electronic Transitions in Liquid FeO Under High Pressure

Abstract FeO represents an important end‐member for planetary interiors mineralogy. However, its properties in the liquid state under high pressure are poorly constrained. Here, in situ high‐pressure and high‐temperature X‐ray diffraction experiments, ab initio simulations, and thermodynamic calculations are combined to study the local structure and density evolution of liquid FeO under extreme conditions. Our results highlight a strong shortening of the Fe‐Fe distance, particularly pronounced between ambient pressure and ∼40 GPa, possibly related with the insulator to metal transition occurring in solid FeO over a similar pressure range. Liquid density is smoothly evolving between 60 and 150 GPa from values calculated for magnetic liquid to those calculated for non‐magnetic liquid, compatibly with a continuous spin crossover in liquid FeO. The present findings support the potential decorrelation between insulator/metal transition and the high‐spin to low‐spin continuous transition, and relate the changes in the microscopic structure with macroscopic properties, such as the closure of the Fe‐FeO miscibility gap. Finally, these results are used to construct a parameterized thermal equation of state for liquid FeO providing densities up to pressure and temperature conditions expected at the Earth's core‐mantle boundary.

Morard, Guillaume↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning reveals factors that control ion mobility in anti-perovskite solid electrolytes

Solid-state batteries are projected to exhibit improved energy densities and safety compared to liquid-electrolyte-based systems. Consequently, the development of solid electrolytes that can conduct cations at rates comparable to that of liquid electrolytes is an active area of research. To facilitate this search it is desirable to understand the chemical and structural features that control ion transport through a crystalline lattice. Here, machine learning (ML) is used to identify features that influence ion mobility in solids, quantify the relative importance of those features, and demonstrate how the variation of individual features alters ion mobility. Adopting the anti-perovskite lattice as a model system, ML algorithms were trained to predict migration barriers from a data set containing hundreds of barriers calculated using density functional theory. In this study, more than 10 6 feature sets of non-redundant descriptors were evaluated for their ability to predict migration barriers. The present analysis correctly reiterates the importance of several features that are known to influence mobility – for example, anion polarizability – but also identifies others whose importance is not widely recognized. Lattice properties such as hopping distance and channel width exhibit the greatest influence on cation mobility. Individual conditional expectation analyses performed on these features shows that barriers decrease as hopping distance decreases and as channel width increases. The defect formation energy – which is commonly associated with the concentration of defects, but not with their mobility – is identified as an important feature for interstitial migration. In sum, this analysis aids in the design of optimal solid electrolytes by simplifying the multi-dimensional design space to a sub-set of properties that are the most important.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Deuterium retention in Be-D co-deposits formed over an ITER relevant parameter space

Be-D co-deposit samples are produced over an extended range of plasma-material interaction parameters reflective of the conditions expected in ITER deposition dominant locations. Deposition temperature, D impact energy, atomic Be deposition rate, and D2 neutral pressure were varied in the ranges 373–623 K, ~2–100 eV, 1–10 × 10 19 m 2 s –1 , and 0.27–13.3 Pa respectively. Thermal desorption spectrometry was carried out on samples, subsequently, to measure the D release profile and retention. In this work, it was found that the D retention in samples agrees well with the existing GDT D/Be scaling over the extended parameter space, and that increased D impact energy and D2 pressure can lead to the observation of a sharp low-temperature release peak at ~440 K in desorption data. Desorption data without the presence of the sharp release mechanism are modeled with TMAP-7 utilizing three traps of de-trapping energies, 0.8, 0.9 and 1.0 eV.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Progress towards edge-localized mode suppression via magnetic perturbations in hydrogen plasmas

Abstract The suppression of edge-localized modes (ELMs) by applying resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs) is well studied in low collisionality deuterium plasmas as a measure to reduce transient divertor heat loads. However, ELM suppression has yet to be demonstrated in non-nuclear fuels such as hydrogen and hydrogen + helium mixtures which are the main ion species to be used in the ITER pre-fusion power operation (PFPO) phase. For the first time, attempts have been made to access ELM suppression with RMPs in ITER-like low collisionality hydrogen plasmas at DIII-D and ASDEX Upgrade. The DIII-D experiments focused on operation with injected power slightly above the L–H power threshold similar to the expected conditions in the ITER PFPO phase with limited external heating power. The RMPs were found to trigger H–L backtransitions, which is shown to be avoided by reducing the L–H power threshold by diluting the plasma with helium. The additional helium combined with a larger measured neutral density of hydrogen inside the separatrix compared to ELM suppressed deuterium plasmas precluded access to a pedestal top density below the known RMP-ELM suppression threshold. At ASDEX Upgrade, RMP-ELM suppression has been achieved when the concentration of 1 H in the hydrogen isotope mix is below 40 % . While all known access criteria for RMP-ELM suppression were met above this threshold, full ELM suppression was replaced by strong mitigation. The most prominent difference between the hydrogen and deuterium plasmas was a change of turbulence characteristics in the pedestal where Doppler reflectometry measurements suggest a significant reduction of turbulence even at small hydrogen concentrations. In conclusion, these experiments not only identify issues that may prevent access to RMP-ELM suppression in the ITER PFPO phase, but also highlight missing physics in our current understanding of RMP-ELM suppression such as potentially the role of turbulence in the pedestal gradient region.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

The PDF perspective on the tracer-matter connection: Lagrangian bias and non-Poissonian shot noise

ABSTRACT We study the connection of matter density and its tracers from the probability density function (PDF) perspective. One aspect of this connection is the conditional expectation value 〈δtracer|δm〉 when averaging both tracer and matter density over some scale. We present a new way to incorporate a Lagrangian bias expansion of this expectation value into standard frameworks for modelling the PDF of density fluctuations and counts-in-cells statistics. Using N-body simulations and mock galaxy catalogues we confirm the accuracy of this expansion and compare it to the more commonly used Eulerian parametrization. For haloes hosting typical luminous red galaxies, the Lagrangian model provides a significantly better description of 〈δtracer|δm〉 at second order in perturbations. A second aspect of the matter-tracer connection is shot-noise, i.e. the scatter of tracer density around 〈δtracer|δm〉. It is well known that this noise can be significantly non-Poissonian and we validate the performance of a more general, two-parameter shot-noise model for different tracers and simulations. Both parts of our analysis are meant to pave the way for forthcoming applications to survey data.

Friedrich, Oliver↗
DOE OSTI2024

Anomaly detection in collider physics via factorized observables

To maximize the discovery potential of high-energy colliders, experimental searches should be sensitive to unforeseen new physics scenarios. This goal has motivated the use of machine learning for unsupervised anomaly detection. In this paper, we introduce a new anomaly detection strategy called : factorized observables for regressing conditional expectations. Our approach is based on the inductive bias of factorization, which is the idea that the physics governing different energy scales can be treated as approximately independent. Assuming factorization holds separately for signal and background processes, the appearance of nontrivial correlations between low- and high-energy observables is a robust indicator of new physics. Under the most restrictive form of factorization, a machine-learned model trained to identify such correlations will in fact converge to the optimal new physics classifier. We test on a benchmark anomaly detection task for the Large Hadron Collider involving collimated sprays of particles called jets. By teasing out correlations between the kinematics and substructure of jets, our method can reliably extract percent-level signal fractions. This strategy for uncovering new physics adds to the growing toolbox of anomaly detection methods for collider physics with a complementary set of assumptions. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Radiative Particle-in-Cell Simulations of Turbulent Comptonization in Magnetized Black-Hole Coronae

We report results from the first radiative particle-in-cell simulations of strong Alfvénic turbulence in plasmas of moderate optical depth. The simulations are performed in a local 3D periodic box and self-consistently follow the evolution of radiation as it interacts with a turbulent electron-positron plasma via Compton scattering. We focus on the conditions expected in magnetized coronae of accreting black holes and obtain an emission spectrum consistent with the observed hard state of Cyg X-1. Most of the turbulence power is transferred directly to the photons via bulk Comptonization, shaping the peak of the emission around 100 keV. The rest is released into nonthermal particles, which generate the MeV spectral tail. As a result, the method presented here shows promising potential for ab initio modeling of various astrophysical sources and opens a window into a new regime of kinetic plasma turbulence.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Direction of impact for explainable risk assessment modeling

Abstract Several graphical indicators have been recently introduced to help analysts visualize the marginal effects of inputs in complex models. The insights derived from such tools may help decision‐makers and risk analysts in designing interventions. However, we know little about the adequacy and consistency of different indicators. This work investigates popular marginal effect indicators to understand whether they yield indications consistent with the properties of the quantitative model under inspection. Specifically, we examine the notions of monotonicity, Lipschitz, and concavity consistency. Surprisingly, only PD functions satisfy all these notions of consistency. However, when selecting the indicators, in addition to consistency, analysts need to consider the risk of model extrapolation. For situations where such risk is under control, we utilize individual conditional expectations together with PD plots. Two applications, on a NASA space risk assessment model and a susceptible exposed infected recovered (SEIR) model for the COVID‐19 pandemic illustrate the insights obtained from these indicators.

Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessment of Bulk Oxygen Capacity and Transient Redox Behavior of Foamed Lanthanum Strontium Manganese Perovskites

Synthesis of solar thermochemical hydrogen (STCH) production redox materials with engineered structures, for example, replica foams, can enable efficient heat and mass transport and are critical for scaled-up systems. Prior work has motivated the use of lanthanum strontium manganese (LSM)-type perovskites as foamed STCH materials, but the effect of their morphology on bulk and kinetic behavior has not been reported. In this work, replica and direct foamed samples of La 0.65 Sr 0.35 MnO 3-δ (LSM35) were fabricated and compared to synthesized powders and dense monoliths, and similarly synthesized CeO 2-δ (ceria) foams, regarding their specific reaction rates and bulk oxygen capacity/H 2 yields. Changes in oxygen capacity (Δδ) and reaction rates were measured between 1200 °C and 1400 °C by using fixed ratios of steam and hydrogen during both reduction and oxidation steps, allowing for analysis under practical high conversion conditions. Results suggest bulk behavior and reaction rates of the foamed LSM materials are comparable to their powder analogues. Differences in reaction rates were observed only when replica foamed samples were subjected to rapid laser heating (emulating conditions expected in solar furnaces), which is expected but has not been demonstrated at such a small scale. Here, foamed samples were further subjected to 50 redox cycles at 1400 °C to evaluate their stability. Results show no statistically significant decrease in hydrogen production for any of the foamed samples, but the direct foamed samples became brittle with time. Together, these results demonstrate the viability of replica foamed LSM perovskites for integration in scaled-up STCH systems.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Characterization of Heat Transfer in a Trapped-Vortex Combustor Designed for High-Temperature Material Testing

Next generation gas turbines will reduce carbon emissions by improving their cycle efficiencies and implementing hydrogen as a low-carbon fuel. The combined-cycle efficiency can be improved by increasing the combustor outlet temperature and decreasing the cooling air required for hot-section parts. Ultra-high temperature ceramic matrix composites (CMC) can survive increasingly extreme environments due to their strong mechanical properties at expected conditions. The introduction of CMCs in high-hydrogen flame environments requires testing at realistic conditions that mimic the thermochemical and fluid mechanic states in gas-turbine combustors. In this work, we describe a new experiment that has been designed to test high-temperature materials in a combustor-relevant environment. Its trapped-vortex combustor chamber design allows for high levels of fuel flexibility and wide flame stability limits. Testing of monolithic silicon carbide (SiC) samples in this environment was done to characterize the heat transfer to material samples over a wide range of operating conditions, including variations in fuel composition and thermal power. Heat flux measurements were verified in non-reacting and reacting environments after which they were benchmarked with previous literature to verify the operation of the facility with heated air. Testing in combustor-relevant conditions shows high levels of heat flux to the material samples in the combustor, particularly downstream of the anchored flame.

Richins, Porter [Pennsylvania State University , ,↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-Driven Closures and Assimilation for Stiff Multiscale Random Dynamics

Here, we introduce a data-driven and physics-informed framework for propagating uncertainty in stiff, multiscale random ordinary differential equations (RODEs) driven by correlated (colored) noise. Unlike systems subjected to Gaussian white noise, a deterministic equation for the joint probability density function (PDF) of RODE state variables does not exist in closed form. Moreover, such an equation would require as many phase-space variables as there are states in the RODE system. To alleviate this curse of dimensionality, we instead derive exact, albeit unclosed, reduced-order PDF (RoPDF) equations for low-dimensional observables/quantities of interest. The unclosed terms take the form of state-dependent conditional expectations, which are directly estimated from data at sparse observation times. However, for systems exhibiting stiff, multiscale dynamics, data sparsity introduces regression discrepancies that compound during RoPDF evolution. This is overcome by introducing a kinetic-like defect term to the RoPDF equation, which is learned by assimilating in sparse, low-fidelity RoPDF estimates. Two assimilation methods are considered, namely nudging and deep neural networks, which are successfully tested against Monte Carlo simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗