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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Variability in Diurnal and Seasonal Ambient Conditions on Geothermal Plant Performance and Cost: Preprint

Geothermal plant performance is bounded by the second law efficiency, which accounts for the quantity of exergy that can be converted into useful work. This in turn is dependent on the geothermal resource temperature and the temperature of the heat sink (i.e., the ambient temperature). In this study we show that ambient temperature variability on a diurnal and seasonal basis can affect performance and cost estimations for geothermal plants. We have utilized the updated System Advisor Model (SAM) to assess nine geothermal sites with existing resource capacities across three climate zones. Our analysis shows that both evaporatively-cooled flash and air-cooled binary cycle plants are affected by temperature, with a slightly higher effect in EGS binary sites. By assuming an ambient (wet bulb) temperature baseline of 15.6 degrees C (60 degrees F) and comparing baseline results to those from site-specific data we observe up to 15% underestimation of plant performance and up to 20% overestimation of cost.

ambient temperature↗
DOE OSTI2023

Variability in Diurnal and Seasonal Ambient Conditions on Geothermal Plant Performance and Cost

Geothermal plant performance is bounded by the second law efficiency, which accounts for the quantity of exergy that can be converted into useful work. This, in turn, is dependent on the geothermal resource temperature and the temperature of the heat sink (i.e., the ambient temperature). In this study, we show that ambient temperature variability on a diurnal and seasonal basis can affect performance and cost estimations for geothermal plants. We have utilized the updated System Advisor Model (SAM) to assess nine geothermal sites with existing resource capacities across three climate zones. Our analysis shows that both evaporatively-cooled flash and air-cooled binary cycle plants are affected by temperature, with a slightly higher effect in enhanced geothermal system binary sites. By assuming an ambient (wet bulb) temperature baseline of 15.6 degrees C (60 degrees F) and comparing baseline results to those from site-specific data, we observe up to 15% underestimation of plant performance and up to 20% overestimation of cost. These results make a case for the inclusion of location-based weather data as inputs to supply curves that are used in capacity expansion models for the prediction of future geothermal deployment scenarios.

ambient temperature↗
DOE OSTI2023

Importance of incorporating spatial and temporal variability of biomass yield and quality in bioenergy supply chain

Abstract Biofuels made from biomass and waste residues will largely contribute to United States’ 2050 decarbonization goal in the aviation sector. While cellulosic biofuels have the potential fuel performance equivalent to petroleum-based jet fuel, the biofuel industry needs to overcome the supply chain barrier caused by temporal and spatial variability of biomass yield and quality. This study highlights the importance of incorporating spatial and temporal variability during biomass supply chain planning via optimization modeling that incorporates 10 years of drought index data, a primary factor contributing to yield and quality variability. The results imply that the cost of delivering biomass to biorefinery may be significantly underestimated if the multi-year temporal and spatial variation in biomass yield and quality is not captured. For long term sustainable biorefinery operations, the industry should optimize supply chain strategy by studying the variability of yield and quality of biomass in their supply sheds.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Empirical Indicators of Transmission Value in the Southeast United States

Concurrent differences in energy price between different parts of the electric grid are a key indicator of the value of additional transmission. In areas without a wholesale electricity market, such as the Southeast, an alternative indicator to price is the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s (FERC) system lambda data. This economic metric represents the minimized marginal production costs of thermal generators, including fuel and other variable operation and maintenance expenses. Balancing Authorities report a single system lambda for their entire balancing area. Most Southeastern lambdas exhibit sufficient price variation to support a transmission valuation analysis, although incomplete accounting of congestion costs or scarcity rents during peak load hours may underestimate the true value of transmission capacity. With transmission value defined as the annual average hourly absolute price difference between two regions and FERC’s system lambda data used as a price proxy, we find the following results in the Southeast region during 2012-2023 (reported in $\$2024$/MWh): Intra‐regional findings: Annual averages historically span $\$2$–$\$28$/MWh and average $\$12$/MWh in SERTP and span $\$4$–$\$19$/MWh and average $\$9$/MWh in FRCC, disregarding transmission value driven by anomalous data. The ranges of transmission value reported here are large, spanning an order of magnitude in some cases. Much of this variation is driven by year-to-year changes, with 2022 having a particularly high intra-regional transmission value due to elevated natural gas prices. Inter‐regional corridors: Annual average transmission values across three broader regions range from $\$6$ to $\$28$/MWh with a long-term average of $\$11$/MWh. Much of the transmission value is concentrated in a small portion of hours. Across all regions, severe weather—particularly polar vortex events in January 2018, February 2021, and December 2022—drives the largest price spreads. Seasonal patterns also emerge, with summer afternoons and fall mornings contributing consistently to transmission value, as for example between MISO and SOCO in 2023.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of Hydrological Data on Power System Operational Studies: Preprint

Hydropower is expected to play an important role in maintaining grid reliability and flexibility as the share of of variable renewable energy increases. While the current hydropower operational models have been studied and used widely, they haven't been updated for decades to meet new performance standards. For example, current steady state and dynamic models often neglect hydrological conditions, which may lead to unrealistic expectations when relying on hydropower for energy and ancillary services. To study this impact, a multi-timescale hydrological model was created by leveraging the National Renewable Energy Laboratory-developed Multi-timescale Integrated Dynamics and Scheduling (MIDAS) tool. Using MIDAS, we compare the impact of considering hydrological conditions in a day-ahead unit commitment (DAUC) schedule on the reduced 240-bus Western Interconnect (WI) test system under winter and summer case studies. We show that neglecting current hydrological conditions of hydropower plants in power system models can lead to an overestimation of hydropower capabilities, which could lead to power balancing issues. For example, power system DAUC simulation results of our reduced test system show that in the case where hydrological conditions are not considered in the model, an approximate 31% overestimation of hydropower capabilities occurs in the summer case and approximately 60% occurs in the winter case compared to what is available. Additionally, results show an underestimation of WI day-ahead power system generation costs by approximately $54M - $80M in the weekly summer scenario and $116M - $126M in the weekly winter scenario. This analysis helps to underscore the importance of considering hydrological data in power system operational studies.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Benchmark of numerical modeling approaches on the systematic performance evaluation of wave energy converters

Different numerical modeling methods have been developed and applied to evaluate a variety of performance indicators of wave energy converters (WECs), including the power performance, structural loads, levelized cost of energy, etc. Based on the modeling fidelity, the commonly used numerical modeling approaches can be classified as linear modeling, weakly nonlinear modeling and fully nonlinear modeling approaches. Each method differs in accuracy and computational efficiency, making them suitable for different stages of WEC design. However, the selection of modeling approach could significantly impact evaluation outcomes. For instance, simplified linear models may underestimate structural loads or overestimate energy production in some operational conditions, potentially leading to less cost-effective designs. Given the widespread utilization of these models, it is essential to understand the uncertainties brought by them in performance evaluations. This work is dedicated to benchmarking different linear-potential-flow-based numerical models for evaluating the systematic performance of WECs. Three representative numerical modeling approaches are considered in this work, including linear frequency-domain modeling, statistically linearized spectral-domain modeling and Cummins equation-based nonlinear time-domain modeling. A generic point absorber WEC is considered as the research reference in this work, and different sea sites are taken into account. The numerical models are utilized to predict critical performance indicators, including power performance, the annual energy production, the capacity factor, the levelized cost of energy and the PTO fatigue loads. By comparing the results, this work identifies the uncertainties associated with different modeling approaches in evaluating WEC performance.

Fatigue↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating the Impact of Residential Solar Contract Cancellations in the United States

The residential solar photovoltaic (PV) market in the United States is growing, despite frequent customer cancellations. Contract cancellations result in lost time and costs that must be borne by installers, often in the form of higher "soft costs" (i.e., non-equipment costs). These costs are often passed on to customers who successfully install PV systems. To date, few studies have attempted to estimate national cancellation rates or model the impacts on installed system costs. In this report, we utilize an installer-provided dataset of 199,665 residential PV-only projects representing about 10% of U.S. installs each year from 2017-2019. With this data, we evaluate cancellation rates and trends from contract signing to install. Next, by leveraging NREL's soft cost model for residential solar, we estimate installer spending through each phase of the pre-install process. Applying our findings on cancellation timelines and rates, we then estimate the potential cost impacts to successful installs from contract cancellations. Our work suggests that the rates and impacts of contract cancellations have been previously underestimated. Namely, we find that cancellations/unsuccessful project are; more common than previous estimates suggest; occur earlier in project timelines, though a significant number happen even after permit/ATB approvals; and contribute significantly to customer acquisition and other soft costs. We also find that cancellation do not appear to be driven by review delays in permitting and interconnection applications.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Techno-economic implications and cost of forecasting errors in solar PV power production using optimized deep learning models

Accurate solar Photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting is important for enhancing both the performance and economic feasibility of PV systems. This study evaluates several deep learning models, including Dense Neural Networks (DNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), and a hybrid LSTMCNN model, for predicting PV power production one day in advance. Prior to optimization, the models exhibited relatively high errors, with the best model (DNN) achieving a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 31.13 kW and a coefficient of determination (R 2 ) of 62.15 %. After employing Bayesian optimization, the LSTM-CNN model demonstrated the best performance, with the RMSE reduced to 9.79 kW and R 2 improved to 97.62 %, showcasing significant enhancement in predictive accuracy. Here, the economic evaluation considered three cases: rewards for underestimation (0.08 USD/kWh), no rewards, and penalties for both over-and underestimation (120 % of the utility tariff). In the rewards scenario, the LSTM-CNN model reduced the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) by 4 %, while in the penalty scenario, a backup diesel generator would have increased the LCOE by 49 %. Additionally, the LSTM-CNN model minimized financial losses, achieving the lowest penalties and maximizing net cash flow compared to other models, demonstrating its overall technical and economic superiority.

Deep learning↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of representative ground motion level on seismic PSA with the boundary between overestimation and underestimation

One commonly used approach in seismic probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is the discrete method. This method follows the standard PSA framework and can be applied to various models, such as multi-unit models, while reducing computational costs using standard software. However, due to the inability to subdivide intervals infinitely, the discrete method approximates with a finite number of subintervals. In practice, different numbers of subintervals are applied, and the representative ground motion level is selected based on expert judgment. When employing a smaller number of subintervals, it is important to take caution to prevent underestimation. This study analyzes the impact of the representative ground motion level on seismic risk. It confirms that underestimation can occur with a small number of subintervals depending on the representative ground motion level. This study also proposes a method for determining the boundary of underestimation and overestimation. The method is demonstrated through examples, providing a mathematical foundation for selecting appropriate representative ground motion levels. By avoiding underestimation, this research helps prevent the oversight of significant risk contributors and enhances the understanding of seismic risk.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRS2010

NASA Spacecraft Fault Management Workshop Results

Fault Management is a critical aspect of deep-space missions. For the purposes of this paper, fault management is defined as the ability of a system to detect, isolate, and mitigate events that impact, or have the potential to impact, nominal mission operations. The fault management capabilities are commonly distributed across flight and ground subsystems, impacting hardware, software, and mission operations designs. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Discovery & New Frontiers (D&NF) Program Office at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) recently studied cost overruns and schedule delays for 5 missions. The goal was to identify the underlying causes for the overruns and delays, and to develop practical mitigations to assist the D&NF projects in identifying potential risks and controlling the associated impacts to proposed mission costs and schedules. The study found that 4 out of the 5 missions studied had significant overruns due to underestimating the complexity and support requirements for fault management. As a result of this and other recent experiences, the NASA Science Mission Directorate (SMD) Planetary Science Division (PSD) commissioned a workshop to bring together invited participants across government, industry, academia to assess the state of the art in fault management practice and research, identify current and potential issues, and make recommendations for addressing these issues. The workshop was held in New Orleans in April of 2008. The workshop concluded that fault management is not being limited by technology, but rather by a lack of emphasis and discipline in both the engineering and programmatic dimensions. Some of the areas cited in the findings include different, conflicting, and changing institutional goals and risk postures; unclear ownership of end-to-end fault management engineering; inadequate understanding of the impact of mission-level requirements on fault management complexity; and practices, processes, and tools that have not kept pace with the increasing complexity of mission requirements and spacecraft systems. This paper summarizes the findings and recommendations from that workshop, as well as opportunities identified for future investment in tools, processes, and products to facilitate the development of space flight fault management capabilities.

Newhouse, Marilyn↗
NASA NTRS2010

Results from the NASA Spacecraft Fault Management Workshop: Cost Drivers for Deep Space Missions

Fault Management, the detection of and response to in-flight anomalies, is a critical aspect of deep-space missions. Fault management capabilities are commonly distributed across flight and ground subsystems, impacting hardware, software, and mission operations designs. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Discovery & New Frontiers (D&NF) Program Office at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) recently studied cost overruns and schedule delays for five missions. The goal was to identify the underlying causes for the overruns and delays, and to develop practical mitigations to assist the D&NF projects in identifying potential risks and controlling the associated impacts to proposed mission costs and schedules. The study found that four out of the five missions studied had significant overruns due to underestimating the complexity and support requirements for fault management. As a result of this and other recent experiences, the NASA Science Mission Directorate (SMD) Planetary Science Division (PSD) commissioned a workshop to bring together invited participants across government, industry, and academia to assess the state of the art in fault management practice and research, identify current and potential issues, and make recommendations for addressing these issues. The workshop was held in New Orleans in April of 2008. The workshop concluded that fault management is not being limited by technology, but rather by a lack of emphasis and discipline in both the engineering and programmatic dimensions. Some of the areas cited in the findings include different, conflicting, and changing institutional goals and risk postures; unclear ownership of end-to-end fault management engineering; inadequate understanding of the impact of mission-level requirements on fault management complexity; and practices, processes, and tools that have not kept pace with the increasing complexity of mission requirements and spacecraft systems. This paper summarizes the findings and recommendations from that workshop, particularly as fault management development issues affect operations and the development of operations capabilities.

Newhouse, Marilyn E.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Assessing entropy for catalytic processes at complex reactive interfaces

When chemical reactions are accelerated by a catalyst, entropy differences between reactants and their transient intermediates can be the driving force behind the promotion or inhibition of desired and parasitic chemical pathways. Understanding and controlling catalytic processes therefore requires both a fundamental and practicable understanding of entropy in addition to enthalpy. In unstructured media such as the vapor phase equilibrated with sparsely covered surfaces, entropy can be adequately accounted for by well-established approaches based on translational, rotational, and harmonic vibrational partition functions. However, these approximations become inadequate in more complex condensed phase environments, e.g., solid liquid interfaces of confined reaction spaces. In this chapter, we provide an overview of the state-of-art in the computational quantification of entropy and its known ramifications on catalysis. The fundamental roles of thermodynamics and kinetics in catalysis are covered in enough detail to appreciate and contextualize the computational methods employed to compute chemically accurate estimates of entropy. These methods are discussed in appropriate detail and range from the ubiquitous harmonic oscillator approximation where entropy unrelated to high frequency oscillations is typically underestimated, to enhanced free energy sampling with molecular dynamics where the desired accuracy must be weighed against the associated computational cost of obtaining it. The rising importance of machine learning and artificial intelligence in accelerating methodological progress in this field is touched upon, as well. Finally, applications, successes, and pitfalls of using these methods are provided to showcase past and present accomplishments while clarifying where improvements in both understanding and methodology are still needed.

Kollias, Loukas↗
DOE OSTI2020

Thermal dissipation sensors enter a new age: Navigating frontiers in transpiration and hydrologic function

Thermal dissipation (TD) sensors have been used extensively for a wide array of sap flow applications, and yet recently several limitations of this approach have been identified, including a tendency to underestimate absolute flows, especially in small stems with very high flows. However, when used properly, the TD method remains the most cost effective and reliable approach for determining relative flows in comparison studies. Major advantages of this method include the ability to replicate maximally within trees, across trees of different sizes, and across multiple species to capture the full range of natural variation in the study system. From early studies, such variation has been deemed a major challenge for representing stand-level dynamics. In a series of recent comparison studies, we determined mean sap flux density dynamics within and among groups of trees. These studies were conducted within temperate coniferous forest (n=46), temperate oak savanna (n=36), temperate pine forest (n=49), temperate bottomland hardwood forest (n=23), tropical premontane rainforest (n=43), semiarid subtropical shrubland (n=25), and tropical dry forest (n=15), with a total of 237 sensors. Two study sites were also equipped with eddy covariance systems for determination of stand-level evapotranspiration. Sites subject to high background thermal gradients used the transient thermal dissipation method. Comparisons varied between studies but tended to focus on relative flow differences between species, between wetter and drier microsites, between understory and overstory components, or between wetter and drier periods of the growing season. Except for the shrubland sites, study trees tended to be at least 15-cm diameter and frequently exceeded 50-cm diameter. Results of this cross-site comparison highlight the inherent variation in natural stands and the importance of using large sample sizes. The TD approach remains a valuable and preferred method for the future determination of water use in trees. However, sensor replication can fundamentally impact a study's outcomes and should be more carefully considered in study design. Customized error mitigation strategies are best to address the sources of variation most problematic for a particular study. In conclusion, the development of “smart” calibration approaches that correct for fundamental effects of radial variation inherent in thermal dissipation studies is discussed.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

CFD Modeling of Concentration Polarization in High-Performance Flat-Sheet Modules

Membrane-based gas separation is a promising, regeneration-free route for industrial CO₂ capture, but its performance is often limited by concentration polarization (CP). Classical 1-D models neglect CP and thus overpredict fluxes, especially for today’s high-permeance, high-selectivity membranes. Therefore, we built a 3-D CFD model that resolves local species transport, boundary-layer resistance, permeate-side effects, and pressure drop in flat-sheet modules. Using the Concentration Polarization Coefficient (CPC) and the overall Effective Membrane CP Index (EAC), the model quantifies how geometry and operating conditions shape CP intensity. Simulations show CP becomes pronounced for advanced membranes, with feed-channel height emerging as the dominant geometric lever: shrinking the gap mitigates CP but raises pressure drop, forcing a trade-off between mass-transfer enhancement and energy cost. These insights emphasize the need for CFD-level analysis in next-generation module design, where 1-D treatments can severely underestimate required membrane area and misguide scale-up.

carbon capture↗
DOE OSTI2026

Comparison of DeePMD, MTP, GAP, ACE and MACE Machine‐Learned Potentials for Radiation‐Damage Simulations: A User Perspective

Accurate and efficient interatomic potentials are essential for molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of radiation damage, gas diffusion, and phase stability in complex ceramics such as LiAlO 2 , especially under extreme conditions relevant to tritium production. Here, we evaluate the performance of six machine-learned interatomic potentials (MLIPs), moment tensor potential (MTP), Gaussian approximation potential, deep potential (DeePMD), atomic cluster expansion (ACE), message-passing ACE (multilayer atomic cluster expansion (MACE) pretrained) and MACE (trained from-scratch), all trained on the same density functional theory dataset with inclusion of tritium. The MLIPs are benchmarked against traditional Buckingham and ReaxFF potentials in terms of energy accuracy, density predictions, thermal equilibration behavior, threshold displacement energy (E d ), tritium diffusivity, and computational cost. Among the models, MTP shows the best overall balance between efficiency and accuracy, with low force and energy errors and realistic E d values for Li and Al. The ACE and MACE (pretrained and trained from scratch) models exhibit high E d (>200 eV) and unphysical pair interactions. DeePMD underestimates Ed due to overly repulsive behavior even at equilibrium distances. All models over-estimate tritium diffusion but the pretrained MACE model behaves well during tritium-diffusion simulations up to 500 K, maintaining diffusivities in the physically consistent 10 −11 m 2 /s range. Finally, we quantify the computational cost of each potential in large-scale atomic/molecular massively parallel simulator, finding that only MTP is more efficient than traditional empirical potentials, while others are significantly more expensive. These findings explain the trade-offs between accuracy and computational cost in MLIP development and provide essential guidance for use in high-throughput radiation damage and gas diffusion simulations in nuclear ceramics.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Life cycle assessment of railway ties fabricated with ductile cementitious composites and carbonation curing

This paper evaluates the lifecycle economic and environmental benefits of implementing CO 2 utilization and storage within advanced engineered cementitious composite (ECC) railway ties. Using CO 2 -treated ECC ties can yield lifecycle benefits primarily due to enhanced material properties – increased lifespan in this case – instead of due to the stored CO 2 that would otherwise enter the atmosphere. Sequestration-based policies such as 45Q in the United States would therefore not incentivize deployment of ECC railway ties, despite their considerable CO 2 avoidance opportunities. To reach these conclusions, cradle-to-grave lifecycle models were developed for ECC ties and conventional concrete ties and evaluated under 1000 possible use-phase scenarios. The models incorporated premature tie failures – consistent with real-world observations – that were used to study a wide range of non-linear impacts arising from the random nature of tie failures and replacements. The results show that past studies that neglected premature failure of ties may have underestimated lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of concrete rail ties by nearly three times. Overall, servicing a track with ECC ties instead of concrete ties can reduce the lifecycle costs and GHG emissions by 12% and 21% respectively, based on median values of 1000 model run results. The expected benefits would be larger for entities like Amtrak that plan to expand concrete tie infrastructure despite significant challenges with premature concrete tie failures. Furthermore, the results of this study suggest that the lifespan of ECC ties needs to be at least 25% longer than concrete ties to achieve net lifecycle benefits. The possibility of this should be tested and confirmed under real-world conditions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Toward shell model interactions with credible uncertainties

Background: The nuclear shell model is a powerful framework for predicting nuclear structure observables, but relies on interaction matrix elements fit to experimental data as its inputs. Extending the shell model's applicability, particularly toward dripline nuclei, requires efficient fitting methods and credible uncertainty quantification. Traditional approaches face computational challenges and may underestimate uncertainties. Purpose: We develop and test a framework combining eigenvector continuation and Markov chain Monte Carlo to efficiently fit shell model interaction matrix elements and quantify their uncertainties. Methods: Eigenvector continuation is used to emulate shell model calculations, reducing computational costs. The emulator enables Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling to optimize interaction matrix elements and rigorously assess parametric uncertainties. Here, the framework is benchmarked using the USDB interaction in the 𝑠⁢𝑑 shell. Results: The emulator reproduces the USDB interaction with negligible error, validating its use in shell model fitting applications. However, we find that to obtain credible predictive intervals, the model defect of the shell model itself, rather than experimental or emulator error, must be taken into account in order to obtain credible uncertainties. Conclusions: The proposed framework provides an efficient and rigorous approach for fitting shell model interactions and quantifying uncertainties. Further, the normality assumption used in the past appears sufficient to describe the distribution of interaction matrix elements. However, it is crucial to account for model correlations to avoid underestimating uncertainties.

Nuclear forces↗
DOE OSTI2024

Incorporating Wind Turbine Choice in High-Resolution Geospatial Supply Curve and Capacity Expansion Models

To achieve national decarbonization goals, U.S. annual deployment of wind energy will need to increase by at least fivefold compared to the recent past. Modeling and analysis frameworks can help inform where and how wind energy deployment might occur and thereby help enable the achievement of decarbonization goals. However, most prior wind energy modeling and analysis studies rely on generalized representations of wind energy technologies. Since wind energy technology advancements are expected to increase the competitiveness of wind energy, it is important to incorporate more detailed representations of turbine technology into wind energy modeling. Here we present a new method that incorporates wind turbine choice into the technology representation of land-based wind energy in long-term planning models. Our method integrates three previously published modeling and analysis capabilities: 1) bottom-up cost modeling to estimate future technology costs, 2) geospatial modeling to represent siting decisions, and 3) power sector modeling to evaluate potential deployment. We refer to this approach as a "customized turbine choice" methodology because it creates a composite turbine scenario by choosing from multiple wind turbine technologies—using site-specific optimized turbine layout and selecting the least-cost technology at each location. We demonstrate the capabilities of this new modeling pipeline by examining how the selection of four different wind turbine configurations might evolve from 2021 through 2040. Our results show that using our customized turbine choice methodology could lead to higher estimates for wind future deployment, which indicates that more simplified modeling might underestimate the role that wind energy could play in meeting decarbonization goals. Future research is needed to further explore the implications of turbine choice and to better inform technology researchers, original equipment manufacturers, and other wind industry stakeholders about the market potential of different wind turbine technologies.

17 WIND ENERGY↗