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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Western Interconnection Baseline Study

The purpose of the baseline study is to evaluate the degree to which current industry planning processes meet the national 2035 decarbonization goals for the Western Interconnection. This analysis serves as a comparative baseline for the scenario analysis conducted in the NTP Study using a Western Interconnection dataset that is readily available to industry. This baseline analysis differs from the production cost modeling analysis and power flow analysis in the main NTP Study report (forthcoming). In particular, the analysis presented in this report reflects a business-as-usual future with an optimistic build out of specific planned transmission projects and foreseeable generation. In contrast, the NTP Study models a future generation and transmission expansion based on optimization from a capacity expansion model. The analysis presented herein also reflects a 2030 timeframe, whereas the main NTP Study production cost modeling analysis and power flow analysis reflect a 2035 time frame. This baseline analysis utilizes industry’s most reliable data to account for future transmission projects across various stages of development, with a particular focus on those in the permitting stage. Additionally, it incorporates projections for changes in generation capacity (both additions and retirements). This baseline analysis outlines a probable trajectory, given current process and practice, for the future of the bulk power system with a horizon extending to 2030.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

The ARM Precipitation Best Estimate (PrecipBE) Value-Added Product Report

The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility’s Precipitation Best-Estimate (PrecipBE) Value-Added Product integrates multiple precipitation datastreams, accounting for data quality and instrument limitations, to deliver comprehensive per-precipitation event properties alongside ancillary ARM data set data. PrecipBE bundles all valid surface rainfall samples into artificial intelligence (AI)-ready tabular and time-series formats, reporting bundle means and uncertainty ranges. This per-event structure provides an insightful and easy-to-use resource for researchers analyzing precipitation characteristics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Contextualizing Non-Powered Dam Site Selection for Archimedes Screw Turbines: A Methodology for Responsible Archimedes Screw Turbine Conversion at Existing Dams

Non-powered dams represent 97% of dams in the United States and their energy generation potential has not been fully realized. The use of an Archimedes screw turbine to generate power at non-powered dams offers a dual benefit; producing electricity, and acting as downstream fish passage, helping to reconnect previously separated ecosystems. In this study, we assess the technical, environmental, social, and economic feasibility of generating power at non-powered U.S. dam sites using Archimedes screw turbines by integrating mechanical constraints, social impact metrics, proximity to infrastructure, and environmental sensitivity data. Results account for future precipitation predictions and show, between 2024 and 2050, the number of sites where Archimedes screw turbines are viable decreases by one site, but overall generation capacity increases due to increased flow rates across persisting locations. Our analysis identified 82 non-powered dam sites with a mean generation capacity of 49 kW that meet the mechanical requirements for Archimedes screw turbine technology in 2024. Our analysis presents a framework for considering social, environmental, and economic impacts of specific turbine technologies to convert non-powered dams to generate power.

Archimedes screw turbine↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Role of Magnetic Reconnection in Energizing Protons and Heavier Ions at the Heliospheric Current Sheet

During near-Sun crossings of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS), Parker Solar Probe (PSP) observed populations of high-energy protons and heavier ions, indicating possible energization by magnetic reconnection up to 10 s–100 s keV nucleon −1 . Here we study ion acceleration by magnetic reconnection at the HCS. To estimate ion energization, we solve the Parker transport equation coupled to a large-scale 2D MHD reconnection simulation. We find that multiple ion species develop power-law distributions with both spectral index and high-energy cutoff E max consistent with in situ data. By accounting for the injection physics determined by kinetic simulations, we confirm that the charge-to-mass ratio scales as E max ∝ (Q/M) α with α ∼ 0.8–1.1, approximately consistent with PSP measurements in the broader range α ∼ 0.6–1.7. In the limit where ions are injected at the same energy per nucleon, α can be as low as ∼0.3. These findings further support the role of magnetic reconnection in producing high-energy heavy ions at the HCS.

Murtas, Giulia [West Virginia Univ., Morgantown, W↗
DOE OSTI2026

HPC ODA Commons [SWR-26-003]

HPC ODA Commons is a community-driven platform for standardizing HPC operational data analytics. HPC sites generate enormous volumes of operational data - scheduler logs, accounting records, monitoring streams - but turning that data into actionable insight is needlessly hard. Each site builds bespoke parsers, schemas, and evaluation pipelines. Results can't be compared across institutions. Promising analytics ideas stay siloed because there's no shared language for describing the data, the experiments, or the outcomes. HPC ODA Commons fixes this by establishing community-governed contracts - versioned schemas, canonical artifacts, and benchmark recipes - that make ODA workflows discoverable, reproducible, and comparable. It pairs these standards with a practical, CLI-first toolkit that lets operators and researchers go from raw logs to standardized results without sending data off-cluster.

Menear, Kevin [National Laboratory of the Rockies ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data as a Key Resource in Catalysis: A Community Account

The deployment of artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming the scientific fields central to interdisciplinary catalysis research. By enabling more effective use of data, AI (including simpler machine learning and data science tools) holds great promise for accelerating discoveries. However, progress has so far been modest, largely due to the lack of standardized, machine-readable, and openly shared catalysis data. This perspective, accounting for community insights emerging at conferences, analyses the underlying reasons for these challenges and proposes solutions to a future whereFAIR data management becomes an integral part of research in catalysis. In the short-term, we deem that mandatory FAIR data depositing prior to scientific publications along with consensualized top-down guidelines on data sharing powered by ease-to-use tools can make the necessary step change happen to catalyse data as key resource in our community.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Role of the likelihood for elastic scattering uncertainty quantification

In the last decade, uncertainty quantification (UQ) for optical model potentials (OMPs) has become a focal point for nuclear reaction theory, and several competing approaches for OMP UQ have recently been developed. Here, we clarify recent efforts to compare frequentist and Bayesian approaches in the context of OMP UQ [G. B. King et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 122, 232502 (2019)]. We replicate a portion of that OMP UQ study but use independent statistical tools. Specifically, we compare two methods for OMP parameter inference from elastic scattering data: the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm for χ 2 minimization on one hand and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling on the other. Separately, we assess the common practice of using a renormalized likelihood (χ 2 /N), N being the number of data points, instead of the canonical weighted-least-squares likelihood (χ 2 ), as a way of accounting for unknown data correlations. Here, we show that for a generic linear model and for a five-parameter OMP analysis, frequentist and uniform-prior Bayesian approaches recover the same optimum and uncertainty estimates—not systematically larger uncertainties for the Bayesian approach, as was concluded in G. B. King et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 122, 232502 (2019). Further, we show that if an additional, near-degenerate parameter is introduced into the same OMP analysis such that the parameter posterior becomes non-Gaussian, then covariance-based estimates of uncertainty become unreliable. Finally, we show that regardless of optimization approach, if χ 2 /N is used for the likelihood, the resulting parametric uncertainties increase by $\sqrt{N}$, and that this is responsible for the conclusions drawn in the revisited study. Based on our replication results, we find that a fortuitous cancellation of unreported errors and the renormalization factor can lead to improvement in empirical coverages, as was the case in the original comparative study. We emphasize that developing and applying a realistic likelihood function is an essential task in a UQ analysis, and that several recent UQ studies that employed a renormalized likelihood (i.e., including a 1/N factor) may have yielded unrealistically large uncertainties for elastic-scattering observables. If the parameter posterior deviates from multivariate-normal, a sampling-based approach like MCMC has a clear advantage over methods that assume the Laplace approximation holds. We note that empirical coverage can serve as an important internal check for the analyst whose model or data may have additional, unaccounted-for uncertainties.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

The anomaly of the CMB power with the latest Planck data

Abstract The lack of power anomaly is an unexpected feature observed at large angular scales in the maps of Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) produced by the COBE, WMAP andPlancksatellites. This signature, which consists in a missing of power with respect to that predicted by the ΛCDM model, might hint at a new cosmological phase before the standard inflationary era.The main point of this paper is taking into account the latestPlanckpolarisation data to investigate how the CMB polarisation improves the understanding of this feature. With this aim, we apply to the latestPlanckdata, both PR3 (2018) and PR4 (2020) releases, a new class of estimators capable of evaluating this anomaly by considering temperature and polarisation data both separately and in a jointly way. This is the first time that the PR4 dataset has been used to study this anomaly. To critically evaluate this feature, taking into account the residuals of known systematic effects present in thePlanckdatasets, we analyse the cleaned CMB maps using different combinations of sky masks, harmonic range and binning on the CMB multipoles.Our analysis shows that the estimator based only on temperature data confirms the presence of a lack of power with a lower-tail-probability (LTP), depending on the component separation method, ≤ 0.33% and ≤ 1.76% for PR3 and PR4, respectively. To our knowledge, the LTP≤ 0.33% for the PR3 dataset is the lowest one present in the literature obtained fromPlanck2018 data, considering thePlanckconfidence mask. We find significant differences between these two datasets when polarisation is taken into account most likely due to a different level of systematics. Especially, the analysis with PR3 data, unlike that with PR4, seems to point towards a lack of power at large scales also for polarisation.Moreover, we also show that for the PR3 dataset the inclusion of the subdominant polarisation information provides estimates that are less likely accepted in a ΛCDM cosmological model than the only-temperature analysis over the entire harmonic-range considered. In particular, at ℓ max = 26, we found that no simulation has a value as low as the data for all the pipelines.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2025

H420 Imager Calibration Procedure: Field of View Scan

Gamma-ray imagers with coded apertures have a finite field of view (FOV) within which an image of a source can be generated. A “FOV scan” is a facet of imager calibration procedure that involves collecting specialized data for a range of source locations filling the FOV in order to understand and correct for differences in imager performance. Systematic distortions reveal relative displacements between internal imager components, which can be accounted for in data analysis. The success of this scan requires a stable imager position during the full measurement duration (~hours). This document summarizes the hardware and software tools required to conduct a FOV calibration scan of an H3D H420 Coded Aperture Gamma-Ray Imager.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Experimental uncertainty quantification using templates of expected measurement uncertainties for fast neutron-induced total, capture, and scattering cross sections

Careful experimental uncertainty quantification (UQ) is key for developing trustworthy evaluated nuclear data. Templates to account for missing or under-reported experimental uncertainties were recently developed by the covariance committee of Cross Section Evaluation Working Group (CSEWG). In this work, we illustrate the practical application and limitations of these templates for selected neutron-induced reactions, including (n, tot), (n, γ), and (n, xn) in the fast energy range, to illustrate their use in data analyses for nuclear data evaluations. We show that while the templates provide consistent framework, proper implementation still requires detailed knowledge of experimental conditions and careful treatment of nonlinear effects in cross section derivation. Case studies highlight how template-assisted UQ improves consistency with previous evaluations such as ENDF/B and reveals open challenges in propagating uncertainties across different energy regimes. The main contribution of this paper is to connect formal template recommendations with their use in practical evaluation workflows, clarifying both their benefits and current limitations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Magnetism of single crystalline breathing pyrochlore spinel AgInCr 4 ⁢S 8

Single crystals of Ag⁢In⁢Cr 4⁢ S 8 are grown by chemical vapor transport and crystallographic ordering of Ag/In that results in a breathing pyrochlore motif of Cr 3+ is verified by x-ray and neutron diffraction. Long-range antiferromagnetic order is observed below a Néel temperature of 𝑇 N ≈ 9.6 K. The magnetic properties are characterized using ac and dc magnetization, specific heat capacity, and single crystal neutron diffraction measurements. The specific heat data are characterized by a small lambda anomaly near 9.5 K and the estimated magnetic entropy reaches ≈ $\frac{1}{3}$ of the expected value by 3⁢𝑇 N , suggesting significant short-range order in the paramagnetic phase. Single crystal neutron diffraction evidences an incommensurate spin structure with propagation vector 𝒌 = (0,0,𝛿) and 𝛿 = 0.343 at 5 K. The minimal model that accounts for the data consists of ferromagnetic layers of Cr atoms, with magnetic moments lying in the plane of the layers and modulating in the perpendicular direction to form a helical structure propagating along 𝒌. Furthermore, this study represents a rare investigation of single crystals within the family of breathing pyrochlore materials.

Frustrated magnetism↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling of the metal–insulator transition temperature in alio-valently doped VO 2 through symbolic regression

The correlated semiconductor vanadium dioxide (VO 2 ) exhibits an insulator–metal transition (IMT) near room temperature, which is of interest in various device applications. Precise IMT temperature control is crucial to determine the use cases across technologies such as thermochromic windows, actuators for robots or neuronal oscillators. Doping the cation or anion sites can modulate the IMT by several tens of degrees and control hysteresis. However, modeling the effects of control parameters (e.g., doping concentration, type of dopants) is challenging due to complex experimental procedures and limited data, hindering the use of traditional data-driven machine learning approaches. Symbolic regression (SR) can bridge this gap by identifying nonlinear expressions connecting key input parameters to target properties, even with small data sets. In this work, we develop SR models to capture the IMT trends in VO 2 influenced by different dopant parameters. Using experimental data from the literature, our study reveals a dual nature of the IMT temperature with varying tungsten (W) doping concentrations. The symbolic model captures data trends and accounts for experimental variability, providing a complementary approach to first-principles calculations. Our feature-driven analysis across a broader class of dopants informs selectivity and provides qualitative insights into tuning phase transition properties valuable for neuromorphic computing and thermochromic windows.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Three-Dimensional Heat Flux and Thermal Analysis of Angled Tungsten Samples on DIII-D

ITER-grade tungsten and dispersoid-strengthened tungsten samples with the top surface angled at ~15° towards the incident plasma flux were exposed to 9 H-mode discharges with edge-localized modes (ELMs) in the lower divertor of DIII-D tokamak using the Divertor Material Evaluation System (DiMES). Surface damage included cracking and flaking of material on the two samples farthest away from the plasma strike point, and significant melting of the two samples closest to the strike point. Heat flux and thermal analysis tools new to DIII-D have been applied to better understand this material response and to help optimize the exposure conditions for future experiments. SMITER field-line tracing simulations based on IRTV data and EFIT equilibria estimate an average inter-ELM perpendicular heat flux, 𝑞⊥,𝑖nter−𝐸LM , on the angled surfaces of 10.1 – 19.6 MW/m² for a majority of the 9 discharges, increasing to 15.6 – 24.5 MW/m² for the single, higher-power shot where samples melted. Fast camera data showed shallow intra-ELM melting and re-solidification, which transitioned to bulk inter-ELM melting with melt motion in the 𝐽⃗ 𝑥 𝐵⃗ direction. About 50% of the protruding volume of the most affected sample was displaced via melt-motion. SIERRA thermal modeling software was able to reproduce an onset time of melting consistent with fast camera data and final sample conditions, within < 200 ms. Maximum surface temperatures of 3122 K and 2787 K are estimated for the samples farthest away from the strike point, while the closest samples achieve melting at 4067 ms and 4750 ms into the ~5000 ms plasma exposure. A +10% increase in both the SMITER 𝑞⊥,𝑖nter−𝐸LM calculations and the estimated ELM heat loads 𝑞⊥, 𝐸LM was required to achieve this result, which is within the uncertainty of the diagnostic data but likely accounts for non-ideal geometry effects plus other physics uncertainties not included in this first iteration of modeling. This work provided valuable estimates of the 3D temperature evolution to help better understand the observed surface morphology and internal recrystallization of samples, which are discussed in detail in a complementary manuscript [1]. Benchmarking efforts with more diagnosed DIII-D experiments are underway to further refine the SMITER and SIERRA models for DiMES. Future use of these tools will enable researchers to precisely target heat flux exposure conditions in DIII-D to test, but not exceed, the thermomechanical limitations of novel plasma-facing materials.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Transfer functions for Q A /Q B international regulatory limits for the safe transport of radioactive materials

This paper presents a proposed revision of the International Atomic Energy Agency transport regulations, related to the A 1 and A 2 limit values used to determine the radioactive transport classification. Based on the 'Q system', a novel methodology was introduced to derive Q A and Q B values related to scenarios involving external exposure from a distant source. These values are key parameters that respectively represent the total effective dose and total equivalent dose to the skin, from all primary and secondary particles contributing to radiation exposure. The International Working Group (WG A 1 /A 2 ) is established and associated with the TRANSSC Technical Expert Group on Radiation Protection. A review of the A 1 and A 2 values is performed in response to identified limitations within the existing Q system. The followed approach is based on Monte Carlo simulations that enabled the development of transfer functions aimed at reducing computational time and increasing the flexibility of dose evaluations for any radionuclide with known particle emission spectra. This method allows updating the Q A and Q B values to account for future data evolutions (decay data, fluence-to-dose conversion coefficients) and standardizing the calculation of regulation limits across all referenced radionuclides and scenarios related to external exposure. The transfer functions are established using three Monte Carlo simulation codes—FLUKA, Geant4, and MCNP—and address the previous limitations of the 'Q system', reflecting the latest International Commission for Radiation Protection recommendations and improvements in calculation techniques. The results of the WG show consistent agreement across the codes, with minor discrepancies observed at low primary energies due to statistical uncertainties and different handling of stopping power for electrons/positrons in the codes. This revised approach aligns with current standards and recommendations, ensuring that the radiological consequences of transport accidents are acceptable for the new A 1 and A 2 limits from a radiological protection perspective.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Empirically-calibrated H100 node power models for accurate AI training energy estimation

Accurately quantifying the energy use of artificial intelligence (AI) training is critical for infrastructure planning, carbon accounting, and sustainable data center operation, but few studies have directly measured the power consumption of production workloads on contemporary hardware. By combining empirical measurements from Brookhaven National Laboratory during AI training on 8-graphics-processing-unit H100 systems with open-source benchmarking data, we develop statistical models relating computational intensity to node-level power consumption. We measure the gap between manufacturer-rated thermal design power (TDP) and actual power demand during AI training. Our analysis reveals that even computationally intensive workloads operate at only 76% of the 10.2 kW TDP rating. Our architecture-specific model, calibrated to floating-point operations, predicts energy consumption with 11.4% mean absolute percentage error, significantly outperforming TDP-based approaches (27%–37% error). We identified distinct power signatures between transformer and convolutional neural network architectures, with transformers showing characteristic fluctuations that may impact grid stability. These results provide a measurement-grounded basis for improving AI training energy estimates, enabling more reliable infrastructure sizing, cost projections, and environmental impact assessments.

Newkirk, Alex C↗
DOE OSTI2026

Beta-Decay Half-Lives beyond 54 Ca: A Systematic Survey of Decay Properties Approaching the Neutron Dripline

In an experiment performed at the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams (FRIB) using the FRIB Decay Station initiator, 15 new half-lives of isotopes near 54 Ca were measured. A new method of extracting lifetimes from experimental data, taking into account the unknown 𝛽-delayed neutron emission branches of very neutron-rich nuclei, was developed to enable systematic uncertainty analysis. The experiment observed a dramatic change in the half-life systematics for the isotopes with neutron number 𝑁 = 34. Beyond 𝑁 = 34, the decline of nuclear lifetime is much slower, leading to longer than anticipated lifetimes for near-dripline nuclei. State-of-the-art shell-model calculations can explain the experimental results, revealing the imprint of shell effects and the need for modification of single-particle neutron states. In conclusion, the results from a newly developed quasiparticle random phase approximation model with potential for making global predictions were also tested against the experimental results and good agreement was found.

Physics - Nuclear physics and radiation physics↗
DOE OSTI2026

United States Data Center Energy Usage Report: 2025 Update

This report updates the 2024 Data Center Energy Usage Report (2024 Report) and estimates that data centers could account for 11.8% of total U.S. electricity by 2030. The estimate also includes a range of scenarios that indicate the energy use could be between 9.5 and 15.3% of total U.S. electricity use by 2030. In comparison, the 2024 Report estimate range was 6.7% to 12.0% of total U.S. electricity by 2028.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Initial Mobility Analysis for ORNL VA-EDH Synthetic Populations

Travel burdens are a major barrier to healthcare access among US Veteran patient populations, particularly those residing in rural areas. Spatial accessibility to points of care for US Veteran populations is commonly assessed in two ways. The first approach uses open data from the US Census to represent collective travel burdens, for example the distance between population-weighted census tract centroids and VHA points of care. The second approach uses restricted-access VHA patient data to measure travel costs (e.g., distance, time) for accessing points of care with respect to geolocated patient addresses and real or approximated transportation networks. While the advantage of the open data approach lies in its reproducibility, it has notable limitations in its tendency to infer individual travel behavior from aggregate population characteristics, a problem known as ecological fallacy. Conversely, while the patient data approach is able to account for individual travel behavior, its ability to account for localized access disparities (e.g., a neighborhood with exceptionally high transportation costs) and patient demographics is limited as protecting individual patient data requires their storage in closed systems with limited capacity for adequately modeling real-world travel patterns or for supplementing patient attributes. Additionally, the patient data approach cannot account for veterans who are not enrolled in the VHA system but who may be eligible for care. These challenges limit the ability to perform “what if” analyses on the effects of place-specific interventions on veteran populations with high access barriers to healthcare. To address these challenges, we explore the application of realistic synthetic populations to examine travel burdens and spatial accessibility issues among veteran patient populations. Synthetic populations provide a virtual, individually-resolved and cross-sectional representation of the veteran patient population that enables investigation of spatial access to points of care in ways in which aggregate data and patient data do not. First, synthetic populations allow one to directly assess how individuals access points of care, from synthesized residential locations to outpatient facilities on real-world transportation networks. Modeling access to points of care at the individual scale addresses the ecological fallacy problem associated with using aggregated census data to represent veteran populations and patterns of movement. Second, synthetic populations provide a means of completely representing an area’s veteran population using only publicly available, anonymized census microdata from the American Community Survey (ACS) to ensure the privacy of real-world individuals. Generating synthetic populations from the ACS also expands descriptive characteristics beyond what patient data typically offers to include socio-demographic, economic, housing, and mobility attributes. More detailed profiles of both VHA patient populations and veterans not enrolled in the VA system will provide a comprehensive picture of groups that may benefit from interventions or outreach. As an initial exercise for using synthetic populations to measure veteran travel burdens to VA care, we apply Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s (ORNL) UrbanPop capability to generate a series of synthetic VHA patient populations for 9 Veterans Integrated Services Networks (VISN) market areas in 9 Census Divisions across the continental United States, which are listed in Table 1. We use UrbanPop to produce synthetic populations for the VISN markets selected for each US Census Division, then assign VA outpatient clinic destinations to synthetic VHA patients based on travel about each VISN market’s road network. To demonstrate using the synthetic populations to evaluate healthcare travel burdens, we compare the time-based impedance between simulated home locations and VA outpatient clinics in each VISN market. We then perform validation exercises on the synthetic populations with respect to neighborhood (block group) demographic composition as well as patient mobility, comparing aggregate origin-destination statistics for the synthetic population to outpatient visits available in restricted patient data from the VA’s Corporate Data Warehouse (CDW) database.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗