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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2006

Projecting Future Scheduled Airline Demand, Schedules and NGATS Benefits Using TSAM

The Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM) developed by Virginia Tech s Air Transportation Systems Lab and NASA Langley can provide detailed analysis of the effects on the demand for air travel of a full range of NASA and FAA aviation projects. TSAM has been used to project the passenger demand for very light jet (VLJ) air taxi service, scheduled airline demand growth and future schedules, Next Generation Air Transportation System (NGATS) benefits, and future passenger revenues for the Airport and Airway Trust Fund. TSAM can project the resulting demand when new vehicles and/or technology is inserted into the long distance (100 or more miles one-way) transportation system, as well as, changes in demand as a result of fare yield increases or decreases, airport transit times, scheduled flight times, ticket taxes, reductions or increases in flight delays, and so on. TSAM models all long distance travel in the contiguous U.S. and determines the mode choice of the traveler based on detailed trip costs, travel time, schedule frequency, purpose of the trip (business or non-business), and household income level of the traveler. Demand is modeled at the county level, with an airport choice module providing up to three airports as part of the mode choice. Future enplanements at airports can be projected for different scenarios. A Fratar algorithm and a schedule generator are applied to generate future flight schedules. This paper presents the application of TSAM to modeling future scheduled air passenger demand and resulting airline schedules, the impact of NGATS goals and objectives on passenger demand, along with projections for passenger fee receipts for several scenarios for the FAA Airport and Airway Trust Fund.

Dollyhigh, Samuel↗
DOE OSTI2020

Argonne’s global critical materials agent-based model (GCMat)

Several studies have identified rare earths as critical materials. Although reasonably abundant in the Earth’s crust, rare earths typically occur in low concentrations of mined ores. Processes for recovering rare earth concentrates from these ores are complex and capital intensive. Further, lead times for deposit development, licensing, and construction are long, with reports of 10- 15 years. China is a major player in the rare earths supply chain, both in production capacity and technology innovation. In 2017, China supplied more than 80% of global rare earth oxide demand. Rare earth elements (REEs) have unique magnetic, catalytic, and phosphorescent properties that significantly improve performance of a wide range of technologies. These technologies span aerospace, energy, telecommunications, electronics, transportation, defense, and other diverse applications. Consequently, disruptions in rare earth supply can have a significant societal impact. Estimating that impact requires understanding of the dynamics across the supply chain, from rare earth oxide extraction to end use application. This report documents Argonne’s Global Critical Materials model (GCMat), first described by Riddle et al. 2015. GCMat provides capabilities to explore supply chain dynamics and uncertainty under scenarios of demand growth or shrinkage, technology adoption, supply disruptions, and trade policies and mitigation strategies of new supply sources, product substitution, consumer thrifting, and stockpiling. Supply chain participants from rare earth mining through final demand are modeled as interacting agents who make market decisions independently as time progresses. Since the version documented in Riddle et al. 2015, GCMat has been expanded to cover additional REEs, derived products and supply chains that use these REEs, and includes new agent behaviors and modeling capabilities. Section 2 provides a summary of the GCMat model design, including the structure of the model and key assumptions, section 3 summarizes methods used for model calibration and sensitivity analysis, and section 4 provides examples of model results.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1989

Evolutionary growth for Space Station Freedom electrical power system

Over an operational lifetime of at least 30 yr, Space Station Freedom will encounter increased space station user requirements and advancing technologies. The space station electrical power system is designed with the flexibility to accommodate these emerging technologies and expert systems and is being designed with the necessary software hooks and hardware scars to accommodate increased growth demand. The electrical power system is planned to grow from the initial 75 kW up to 300 kW. The Phase 1 station will utilize photovoltaic arrays to produce the electrical power; however, for growth to 300 kW, solar dynamic power modules will be utilized. Pairs of 25 kW solar dynamic power modules will be added to the station to reach the power growth level. The addition of solar dynamic power in the growth phase places constraints in the initial space station systems such as guidance navigation and control, external thermal, truss structural stiffness, computational capabilities and storage which must be planned-in in order to facilitate the addition of the solar dynamic modules.

Marshall, Matthew F.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Evolutionary growth for Space Station Freedom electrical power system

Over an operational lifetime of at least 30 yr, Space Station Freedom will encounter increased Space Station user requirements and advancing technologies. The Space Station electrical power system is designed with the flexibility to accommodate these emerging technologies and expert systems and is being designed with the necessary software hooks and hardware scars to accommodate increased growth demand. The electrical power system is planned to grow from the initial 75 kW up to 300 kW. The Phase 1 station will utilize photovoltaic arrays to produce the electrical power; however, for growth to 300 kW, solar dynamic power modules will be utilized. Pairs of 25 kW solar dynamic power modules will be added to the station to reach the power growth level. The addition of solar dynamic power in the growth phase places constraints in the initial Space Station systems such as guidance, navigation, and control, external thermal, truss structural stiffness, computational capabilities and storage, which must be planned-in, in order to facilitate the addition of the solar dynamic modules.

Marshall, Matthew Fisk↗
NASA NTRS1996

Principles and Guidelines for Duty and Rest Scheduling in Commercial Aviation

The aviation industry requires 24-hour activities to meet operational demands. Growth in global long-haul, regional, overnight cargo, and short-haul domestic operations will continue to increase these round-the-clock requirements. Flight crews must be available to support 24-hour-a-day operations to meet these industry demands. Both domestic and international aviation can also require crossing multiple time zones. Therefore, shift work, night work, irregular work schedules, unpredictable work schedules, and dm zone changes will continue to be commonplace components of the aviation industry. These factors pose known challenges to human physiology, and because they result in performance-impairing fatigue, they pose a risk to safety. It is critical to acknowledge and, whenever possible, incorporate scientific information on fatigue, human sleep, and circadian physiology into 24-hour aviation operations. Utilization of such scientific information can help promote crew performance and alertness during flight operations and thereby maintain and improve the safety margin.

Dinges, David F.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating grid stress and reliability in future electricity grids across a range of demand, generation mix, and weather trends

The reliability of power grids in the future will depend on how system planners account for the integration of new technologies, extreme weather events, and uncertainties in demand growth from increased electrification and data centers. This study introduces an open-source, multisectoral, multiscale modeling framework that projects grid stress and reliability trends between 2020 and 2055 in the Western Interconnection of the United States. The framework integrates global to national energy-water-land dynamics with power plant siting and hourly grid operations modeling. We analyze future wholesale electricity price shocks and unserved energy events across eight scenarios spanning a range of population growth and economic change, generation mixes, and weather conditions. Our results show future grids with high percentage of non-renewable generation and strong economic growth are characterized by higher reliability and lower wholesale electricity prices than lower growth scenarios because of larger reliance on dispatchable generators and lower fossil fuel extraction costs. Scenarios with high percentage of renewable resources have lower median but more volatile wholesale electricity prices as well as more frequent and severe unserved energy events compared to scenarios relying more on dispatchable generators. These events occur because higher proportion of solar and wind energy causes net demand curves to deepen during midday (duck curves get progressively severe), exacerbating the challenge of meeting demand during summer evening peaks. This study suggests that robust and co-optimized transmission and energy storage planning could help maintain low wholesale electricity prices and high reliability levels in future electricity grids across uncertainties in generation mixes.

Electric grid reliability↗
NASA NTRS2011

Investigating the Nature of and Methods for Managing Metroplex Operations

A combination of traffic demand growth, Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) technologies and operational concepts, and increased utilization of regional airports is expected to increase the occurrence and severity of coupling between operations at proximate airports. These metroplex phenomena constrain the efficiency and/or capacity of airport operations and, in NextGen, have the potential to reduce safety and prevent environmental benefits. Without understanding the nature of metroplexes and developing solutions that provide efficient coordination of operations between closely-spaced airports, the use of NextGen technologies and distribution of demand to regional airports may provide little increase in the overall metroplex capacity. However, the characteristics and control of metroplex operations have not received significant study. This project advanced the state of knowledge about metroplexes by completing three objectives: 1. developed a foundational understand of the nature of metroplexes; 2. provided a framework for discussing metroplexes; 3. suggested and studied an approach for optimally managing metroplexes that is consistent with other NextGen concepts

Atkins, Stephen↗
DOE OSTI2023

Exploring decarbonization pathways for USA passenger and freight mobility

Abstract Passenger and freight travel account for 28% of U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions today. We explore pathways to reduce transportation emissions using NREL’s TEMPO model under bounding assumptions on future travel behavior, technology advancement, and policies. Results show diverse routes to 80% or more well-to-wheel GHG reductions by 2050. Rapid adoption of zero-emission vehicles coupled with a clean electric grid is essential for deep decarbonization; in the median scenario, zero-emission vehicle sales reach 89% for passenger light-duty and 69% for freight trucks by 2030 and 100% sales for both by 2040. Up to 3,000 terawatt-hours of electricity could be needed in 2050 to power plug-in electric vehicles. Increased sustainable biofuel usage is also essential for decarbonizing aviation (10–42 billion gallons needed in 2050) and to support legacy vehicles during the transition. Managing travel demand growth can ease this transition by reducing the need for clean electricity and sustainable fuels.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Infrastructure and resource development needs to support a significant expansion of US nuclear capacity

In December 2023, the United States pledged at a United Nations conference to triple nuclear energy by 2050. In May of 2025 a new administration announced plans to quadruple nuclear energy by 2025, setting a new target that requires understanding the key infrastructure and resources needed to achieve large-scale deployment. This study attempts to quantify “what it takes” to deploy an additional 200 GWe of nuclear capacity. It projects demand levels for workforce, fuel, uranium mining and enrichment, waste management, supply chain, land, licensing, and water. Demand growth is also contextualized. For example, the peak number of construction workers required is approximately 215,000, a 37 % increase in the current US utility construction workforce. Up to 80,000 MT/year of mined uranium will be needed, necessitating a 60-fold increase in US mining production or a doubling of global mining if sourced externally. Advanced reactor fuels, uranium mining, and nuclear-grade equipment production would need substantial expansion. Operational workforce, enrichment needs, and licensing submissions also face significant increases. Although water consumption may see relatively lower increases, securing water rights poses unique challenges. This study consolidates various demand metrics in a broad context, highlighting the necessity of early preparations, such as workforce training, to support a tripling of nuclear energy. While it outlines the demand-side requirements, it does not assess the difficulties of ramping up or other supply-side issues. The findings also shed light on the impact of reactor size and reactor technology on various demand metrics.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Highly Efficient Magnetocaloric Natural Gas Liquefaction (Final Report)

Over the twelve-month project the following achievements were accomplished: • Liquefication of methane as primary component of natural gas was accomplished with a magnetocaloric liquefier (MCL) prototype. This was the first time an MCL was used to liquefy methane. • Improved MCL designs were completed. • Cooling to 135 K from room temperature was achieved for the first time in a single MCL stage with dual, reciprocating four-layer regenerators. • Techno-economic analysis for a multi-stage 5 tonne/day magnetocaloric liquefier was completed. The detailed thermodynamic analysis of this MCL design showed a figure of merit (FOM) of 0.6 was achievable. This is a ~2x improvement over current state of the art. • Cost of an efficient 5 tonne/day LNG multi-stage liquefier was projected to be ~$\$$3.1 MM for the 5 tonne/day MCL with achievable design assumptions. • Market study of U.S. merchant LNG demand by energy sector was completed showing that at beginning of 2019, total use was ~2.5 million gallons/day primarily in three sectors that was filled by ~20 small companies in the merchant LNG supply business producing ~2.3 million gpd. These data exclude LNG produced at dedicated peak shaving and large export plants. • Business case for MCL technology based on LNG market study was completed showing the high FOM feature of MCL reduces cost of plant power, and lower capital cost reduces debt repayment and plant depreciation operating expenses. However, today’s demand for U.S. merchant LNG in most sectors is satisfied with conventional technology. Further, with today’s extremely low natural gas (NG) feedstock costs (e.g., ~$\$$1.8/MMBtu), the cost of fuel for NG gensets and for LNG feedstock is already very low. Therefore, possible new merchant LNG liquefier plant developers anticipating demand growth in the transportation, industrial, and electricity generation sectors do not obtain sufficient cost benefits to adopt new, commercially unproven MCL technology. • Other market factors such as remoteness from existing NG pipelines, or unfilled or unsatisfied applications such as boil-off gas re-liquefaction in LNG vessels, or policy factors such as some form of emissions-related fees may make lower capital costs and higher FOM of MCL technology attractive for new small-scale (~50 tonne/day) LNG plants. Two potentially attractive niche markets for MCL technology were identified: i) re-liquefaction of boil-off gas from large LNG transport vessels where severe transport conditions are problematic for conventional technology; and ii) providing LNG in distributed-scale plants that eliminate road transport costs to meet diverse, smaller-scale, distributed LNG bunkering fuel demands. By eliminating significant cryogenic tanker delivery costs and create an attractive cost-savings benefit with small-scale MCL plants.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Securing the Modern Grid: Federal Investments, Digitization, and Supply Chain Strategy

Across the United States (U.S.) grid expansion and modernization is underway, paving the way for accelerated load growth and intelligent resource management. Digitization of the grid is supported by several state and federal programs, providing support for utilities installing advanced metering infrastructure (AMI), AI-powered analytics systems, battery energy storage systems (BESS), and distributed energy resource management systems (DERMS) to transform the grid from a one-way power delivery system into an intelligent, responsive network that will enable faster load growth and power expansion of data centers for advanced artificial intelligence (AI) applications. The digital transformation of America's grid presents opportunity for increased efficiency and resiliency but also introduces new digital risks that require careful management. Digital equipment often contains several vulnerabilities such as unencrypted communication protocols, and persistent remote access capabilities that could be exploited to manipulate device settings, coordinate service disruptions, or inject false data into grid operations. These digital risks become particularly important as the grid must rapidly scale to support AI-driven data centers, which the administration has identified as essential for maintaining U.S. technological leadership and economic competitiveness. These vulnerabilities are compounded by supply chain realities: Chinese manufacturers currently produce 70-90% of essential grid components including inverters, batteries, and control systems, with the U.S. lacking domestic manufacturing capacity for critical assets like extra-high voltage transformers. Recent federal legislation has established Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) restrictions to address these risks, requiring projects to achieve escalating thresholds of non-FEOC content to receive tax credits while utilities work to expand sourcing channels for their supply chains and strengthen security measures. These restrictions arrive precisely when utilities face unprecedented electricity demand growth driven by the rapid growth in data centers, creating a considerable challenge: rapidly expanding infrastructure while navigating complex compliance requirements while lacking viable alternatives for many critical components. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and its partners have developed practical approaches to help utilities navigate these intersecting challenges as they leverage federal investment to strengthen and grow the grid. These solutions include Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) principles that build resilience directly into systems, the Cirrus tool for secure cloud migration, and enhanced procurement guidance that embeds security requirements throughout equipment lifecycles. Federal initiatives, such as the Technical Assistance for Digital Assurance (TADA) project, provide direct support to utilities implementing these approaches while facilitating knowledge sharing across the industry. While these tools and frameworks cannot eliminate all risks inherent in foreign supply chain dependencies, they offer pragmatic pathways for strengthening security posture without sacrificing the deployment momentum essential to meeting surging electricity demand. Ultimately, securing America's digital energy infrastructure demands dedicated coordination across multiple fronts: building domestic supply chains, implementing robust digital assurance practices, and maintaining the aggressive modernization timeline necessary for reliability, resilience, and energy independence.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

cerf: A Python package to evaluate the feasibility and costs of power plant siting for alternative futures

Long-term electric power sector planning and capacity expansion is a key area of interest to stakeholders across a wide range of organizations because it helps in making informed decisions about investments in infrastructure within the context of potential future vulnerabilities under various natural and human stressors. Future power plant siting costs will depend on a number of factors including the characteristics of the electricity capacity expansion and electricity demand (e.g., fuel mix of future electric power capacity, and the magnitude and geographic distribution of electricity demand growth) as well as the geographic location of power plants. Electricity technology capacity expansion plans modeled to represent alternate future conditions meeting a set of scenario assumptions are traditionally compared against historical trends which may not be consistent with current and future conditions. We present the `cerf` Python package (a.k.a., the Capacity Expansion Regional Feasibility model) which helps evaluate the feasibility and structure of future, scenario-driven electricity capacity expansion plans by siting power plants in areas that have been deemed the least cost option while considering dynamic future conditions. We can use `cerf` to gain insight to research topics such as: 1) under what conditions future projected electricity expansion plans from models such as GCAM-USA are possible to achieve, 2) where and which on-the-ground barriers to siting (e.g., protected areas, cooling water availability) may influence our ability to achieve certain expansions, and 3) how electricity infrastructure build-outs and value may evolve into the future when considering locational marginal pricing (LMP) based on the supply and demand of electricity from a grid operations model.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Challenges and Opportunities for Electric Utility Modeling and Asset Valuation Frameworks: Case Study on Valuing New Pumped Storage Hydropower

Asset valuation by electric utilities is becoming increasingly difficult in the rapidly changing electric sector. Rapid deployment of variable generation and inverter-based storage systems along with uncertain demand growth, climate, policies, and other factors create a challenging environment for understanding the value proposition of a new potential asset. This report describes an effort between the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) and three U.S. Department of Energy laboratories to perform a detailed review of utility modeling and analysis practices for asset valuation and identify challenges and opportunities for advancing its methods into the future. It focuses on a case study of new potential pumped storage hydropower (PSH) because of growing interest in new PSH capacity to provide energy balancing, firm capacity, and a range of ancillary services. Staff from the DOE labs conducted systematic interviews about current practices in capacity expansion modeling, production-cost modeling, hydrological modeling, and transmission stability modeling while also discussing how scenario analysis is conducted and how models and data are integrated. The effort resulted in a set of model, integration, and scenario recommendations that could be valuable to TVA, other utilities, system operators, and other stakeholders conducting integrated grid analysis. Individual model recommendations suggest exploring computational tradeoffs with detail and resolution across spatiotemporal structure, supply- and demand-side details, transmission overlays, market interactions, and ancillary services. Automated processes to pass data between models and conduct larger scenario suites could also enhance valuation practices by enabling a more consistent study of asset value across a broader range of uncertain future grid conditions where PSH could be particularly valuable. TVA and other industry stakeholders can learn from and adapt applied research-grade methods developed by DOE laboratories and other research institutions to improve decision making and accelerate progress towards a reliable, economic, sustainable energy system.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Decarbonization and technology cost drivers: considerations for potential future thermoelectric water use in the power sector

The power sector is currently undergoing significant changes, driven by a combination of factors, including decarbonization and technology innovation. This study aims to assess implications of these drivers on U.S. power sector technology futures and the associated water and environmental implications for cooling thermoelectric power plants. Specifically, we evaluate four decarbonization scenarios for the contiguous United States that vary in assumptions concerning demand growth and technology costs, with technology costs driving alternative outcomes that prioritize either technologies that require low amounts of water (such as wind, solar, and battery) or high amounts of water (such as nuclear and carbon capture and storage). These scenarios are executed in a power sector capacity expansion model and compared to two reference scenarios that assume status quo with policy and cost drivers. Our analysis indicates that future U.S. thermoelectric water withdrawals could decrease by 25%–60%, but water consumption could more than triple in some scenarios. These changes are driven by a combination of retirement of some power facilities, shifts in cooling technologies, and new technology deployment. The water use patterns vary across the United States, with the eastern regions demonstrating a lot more variability in water consumption across scenarios than western regions. However, local concerns can influence these possible investments, since increased water consumption can exacerbate water scarcity, leading to conflicts among competing users and affecting regional social, environmental, and economic dynamics. Future work should consider possible costs associated with alternate water sources, as well as improve the representation of water constraints within simulations. Inclusion of extreme events and alternate modeling platforms (e.g. production cost modeling and resource adequacy) may also be warranted to further stress test the robustness of these possible technology futures. Such assessments will be critical for ensuring decarbonization and other infrastructure-oriented investments lead to a reliable and resilient power grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

VSC-HVDC Interties for Urban Power Grid Enhancement

Urban power grids are facing many operational and expansion challenges to meet further demand growth and increased reliability requirements. Advanced transmission technologies have been considered by the electric utilities to effectively increase the utilization of existing infrastructure and operational flexibility. The focus of this paper is on VSC-HVDC technologies for urban power grid enhancement and modernization. First, a potential technical scheme is proposed for converting an existing AC circuit to DC operation, which could boost the power transfer capability of the critical transmission corridor and increase network operational flexibility. Second, this paper proposes three operation modes for the VSC-HVDC interties in urban power grids corresponding to normal, emergency and island operating conditions, respectively. An integrated, adaptive emergency control strategy (AEC) is proposed that can enable adaptive power flow responses of the VSC-HVDC intertie under varying system operating conditions and critical contingencies. The flexibility and effectiveness of the proposed operational principles of urban VSC-HVDC intertie and the corresponding control strategies are verified in PSCAD/EMTDC using a realistic urban power grid in China.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Electricity demand in South Asia – data gaps and pathways for research and modeling

South Asia is one of the fastest growing regions - economically and energy-wise in the world. However, there are significant uncertainties in how the energy demand would grow given the rapidly rising incomes, urbanization, industrialization, access to energy, warming climate and technological change. The transition to clean energy in the region is a priority and is critical to limiting emissions in the region and increasing regional energy security. The power sector will play an important role in decarbonization of energy systems, lowering emissions in other sectors through electrification. However, as existing end uses are scaled up more and new end uses are electrified, the temporal and spatial patterns of electricity consumption could change. These changes have implications for the magnitude, shape, and timing of peak demand, which in turn affects the power sector’s investments and operations, and ability to provide reliable power. In this report, we outline key uncertainties in demand growth that South Asian countries would face in the near to medium term, along with summarizing insights from stakeholder consultations we held over the past 6 months.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Options for Meeting Data Center Demand in Virginia: Focus on GETs and Reconductoring [Slides]

Data center demand growth in Virginia will need to met with many options - GETs and/or reconductoring have the potential to be part of the solution suite in the short-term and medium-term. Almost all GETs and reconductoring technologies have more favorable economics than transmission wires investments considering relatively low levels of existing wide-scale deployment. Deployment of GETs and/or reconductoring is not a one size fits all - requires detailed analysis. The complementary nature of GETs and/or reconductoring impacts have the potential to be synergistic (more congestion relief, more transfer capability, more cost savings - when implemented together).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

ATEAM4Py: An Efficient and Scalable Python-Based Model for Charging Demand

This report details the development and implementation of ATEAM4Py, a Python-based simulation model that projects demand for battery electric vehicle (BEV) charging based on adoption trends and consumer behavior. With Exelon’s support, Argonne National Laboratory converted the original Java-based Agent-based Transportation Energy Analysis Model (ATEAM) into Python, resulting in a faster and more efficient tool for forecasting the timing, location, and scale of charging demand growth. ATEAM4Py tackles key challenges in simulation efficiency and runtime, supporting the strategic development of cost-effective grid capacity expansion strategies and ensuring reliable service for stakeholders.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗