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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probabilistic Modeling of a Three-Stage Human Landing System Architecture

Space Policy Directive-1 has led to NASA partnerships with commercial entities on procurement which includes the development of the Human Landing System (HLS) [1]. With the goal of delivering human crew to the lunar surface by 2024, system uncertainties become an important obstacle to the maturation of multiple new, driving technologies and mission concepts of the HLS program. As unmitigated uncertainties have previously led to failed development programs, these risks and their impacts must be understood and handled to ensure program success [2]. Sources of uncertainty include novel engine designs and configurations, increased reliance on cryogenic fluid management(CFM), and refueling technologies—which propagate as high-level performance metrics such as overall propellant mass and engine performance. Also, the occurrence of operational uncertainties—e.g. launch conditions or need to abort during the mission—can cause cascading effects on the rest of the mission that are difficult to definitively quantify, and are outside the scope of control. These concrete examples and other occurrences can be categorized as either epistemic or aleatory uncertainties.Epistemic uncertainty arises due to a lack of knowledge and can be alleviated with design and program maturation. Aleatory uncertainty is due to the inherent randomness of the system and cannot be directly reduced, unlike epistemic uncertainty. Robust design and probabilistic methods can compensate for aleatory effects. A taxonomy of uncertainty is referred to for this work [3]. In this paper, a probabilistic methodology to handle uncertainties has been demonstrated on a three-element HLS concept [1, 4], which allows tracking of current best estimates of the concept and assessment of concept design robustness against uncertainties. A sample case has been completed for this abstract, and an expansion on the methodology will be included in the final paper. This methodology has two key parts: first, the creation of a dynamic architecture model of a three-element HLS concept; and second, its use with surrogate modeling and range estimating techniques to capture and propagate uncertainties. This abstract will cover the basics of the approach used, and further details and justifications will be in the final paper.The mission profile associated with this three-element concept (Fig 1) was modeled as a set of mission events that facilitated mass changes, idles, or spacecraft maneuvers. The mission profile scope starts with each element’s NRHO orbit insertion and aggregation and ends at post-sortie rendezvous with Orion. More detail on the mission profile will be in the final paper. The DYnamic Rocket EQuation Tool (DYREQT), a space systems synthesis and sizing framework used by NASA, was used as the physics framework to model the HLS architecture for applying the probabilistic methodology [5, 6]. Specifically, a parametric representation of the lander, ascent, and transfer elements and the mission profile of each element was established, with vehicle and mission parameters available as inputs to allow for a dynamic model. Each vehicle stage was modeled with high-level performance metrics, using Isp and propellant mass fraction (PMF) to remain parametric. For the probabilistic analysis, uncertainties of interest within the HLS concept were enumerated and represented as parameters within the DYREQT model as inputs for vehicle stages or mission profile events. These parameters were frozen at their nominal values for the purposes of baselining architecture performance and sizing the vehicle appropriately based on reference documentation [1]. Range estimating—a probabilistic method that combines Monte Carlo sampling, focus on critical parameters, and heuristics to assess risk and opportunities—is traditionally used with Mass Equipment Lists (MELs), but has been adapted with operational parameters as well as vehicle parameters in theDYREQT model to capture mission uncertainty alongside vehicle uncertainty [7, 3]. This method was selected due to its application and insight on a system from a bottom-up perspective, independence from historical rules of thumb, and ability to generate sensitivities based on design decisions and uncertainties. As a sample case for the abstract, the boiloff rates of the vehicle elements and the loiter times during the mission (simulating launch time variations and changing window of opportunities) were used with range estimating to provide preliminary results. To perform the range estimation portion of this methodology (depicted in Fig. 3, further details in final paper), the DYREQT model was sampled using a Design of Experiments (DoE) to efficiently explore the architecture design space with respect to the sample set of uncertainty parameters; 5,000 cases via Latin Hypercube Sampling were computed on the DYREQT architecture model. Then, the results were used to create surrogate models, multivariate regressions that can visualize hypercube trends in the design space, of the architecture with respect to the uncertainty parameters. Range estimating was applied to the surrogates instead of the actual models, which saves computational expense due to the bulk of cases needed for the Monte Carlo simulation as part of range estimating. Uncertainty parameters were sampled independently from triangular distributions using the DoE ranges as ‘min’ and ‘max’, and the nominal value as ‘most likely’. Based engineering intuition, some uncertainty parameters are correlated—e.g. if the main propellant has a high boil-off rate, the oxidizer should follow suit as both are related to CFM technology.While a Monte Carlo simulation samples all inputs as independent, the results would show model correlations; thus, it is efficient to sample the inputs as correlated. Using a correlation matrix constructed for the uncertainty parameters, previously independent samples were transformed to perform a Correlated Monte Carlo. A table for the DoE ranges and probability distribution parameters is shown in Table 1, and more details on Correlated Monte Carlo Simulations will be discussed in the final paper. The model’s resulting DoE showed that multivariate polynomial equations fit via least squares method captured its behavior accurately for the sample case. For the Correlated Monte Carlo Simulation, a positive correlation between fuel and oxidizer boiloff rates was used as a demonstration. 10,000 cases were computed with the surrogates and the launched masses for each vehicle element was collated. The results can be displayed in a probability density function (PDF), showing the impact of the uncertainty parameters chosen. Integrating the PDFs will yield a cumulative distribution function (CDF) that shows the cumulative probability of a given value on the x-axis. For the sample case, the elements’ launch mass margin was calculated and represented in as CDFs, as a demonstrated representation of figures of merit for the HLS concept. For the lander and ascent elements, the NRHO mass insertion limit is 16t; the transfer element has a limit of 30t [1]. It can be seen with Figure 2 that this probabilistic methodology can provide insight into mass margin with respect to the uncertainties being modeled. Currently, the results show that the lander (descent) vehicle element has the most restrictive design space; it is the only element to show a 10% probability of negative margin. Further analysis on the Monte Carlo results will show sensitivities for driving constraints and parameters for architecture feasibility, which can lead to establishing potential mission rules.The combination of range estimating with a parametric architecture model for HLS demonstrated the capability of this probabilistic methodology in a sample case. As the HLS development progresses, this methodology has the potential for keeping current best estimates of architecture performance for awarded concepts due to the flexibility in DYREQT’s modeling framework and its parametric nature. Concept maturation and increased epistemic knowledge can be injected into the model probabilistic modeling, and thus continue to track probability of mission success.

Stephanie Y Zhu↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Space Launch System Payload Stage Capability for Ultra-High Characteristic Energy Missions

The Space Launch System (SLS) vehicle is NASA’s cornerstone capability for a new era of human and robotic exploration of deep space. The unrivalled performance of SLS provides the capability to launch the first woman and next man to walk on the lunar surface and to support development of a sustained human presence in cislunar space, and ultimately human missions to Mars. As an evolvable capability with unique launch performance, the opportunities enabled by SLS also include game-changing benefits for science missions, including probes to the outer solar system and beyond. For the last two years, the SLS Program has worked with the Interstellar Probe team at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory(APL) to provide data that describe how SLS could support a mission that would break through the boundary of the heliosphere and into pristine interstellar space only a decade after launch, enabling earlier science return and greatly increasing spacecraft life in the interstellar medium. In record-breaking time, the ISP as launched on SLS may answer questions raised by the extended mission of NASA’s Voyager spacecraft. While SLS and its efficient Exploration Upper Stage (EUS) offer benefits for exploration of the outer planets, adding one or more additional stages to this architecture makes it even more capable for missions beyond our solar system, offering more realistically appealing flight times that would allow the mission scientists to reap the rewards of exploration. During the time the SLS Program has been working with the Interstellar Probe team, it has identified an expedited path to the Block 2 capability planned for the Interstellar Probe mission, and further matured performance numbers for diverse multi-stage configurations using a combination of commercially available liquid hydrogen (LH2)/liquid oxygen (LOX) upper stages and solid motor kick stages. That work has demonstrated the SLS payload stage capability provides significant benefits and opens trade space for multiple missions in consideration during planning for the next Planetary Science and Astrobiology Decadal Survey. This presentation details the significant benefits SLS can provides for very high characteristic (C3) energy missions by coupling the capabilities of SLS to current commercial rocket propulsion stage systems. These capabilities are explored specifically in the context of an Interstellar Probe architecture in which a small, capable science probe, coupled with carefully tailored mission design trajectories, could be used to explore the outer solar system and the interstellar medium. The presentation will also address the operational logistics of integrating such a mission, explaining the options available for “non-standard” SLS payloads, including processing those with radioisotope power generators or additional propulsion stages. An SLS system overview and capabilities will be presented, along with vehicle configuration and orbit performance capability studies, explaining how SLS is enabling for a variety of high-energy science mission profiles, including launching an exploratory probe bound for interstellar space only a decade after launch.

Rob Stough↗
DOE OSTI2024

Performance Prediction of High‐Entropy Perovskites La 0.8 Sr 0.2 Mn x Co y Fe z O 3 with Automated High‐Throughput Characterization of Combinatorial Libraries and Machine Learning

Perovskite oxides form a large family of materials with applications across various fields, owing to their structural and chemical flexibility. Efficient exploration of this extensive compositional space is now achievable through automated high-throughput experimentation combined with machine learning. In this study, we investigate the composition–structure–performance relationships of high-entropy La 0.8 Sr 0.2 Mn x Co y Fe z O 3±𝞭 perovskite oxides (0 < x, y, z <1; x+y+z≈1) for application as oxygen electrodes in Solid Oxide Cells. Following the deposition of a continuous compositional map using thin-film combinatorial pulsed laser deposition, compositional, structural, and performance properties are characterized using six different techniques with mapping capabilities. Random forests effectively model electrochemical performance, consistently identifying Fe-rich oxides as optimal compounds with the lowest area-specific resistance values for oxygen electrodes at 700 °C. Additionally, the models identify a statistical correlation between oxygen sublattice distortion—derived from spectral analysis of Raman-active modes—and enhanced performance.

high entropy oxides↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Route to Design Novel Functional Peptides by Applying a Denoising Diffusional Model to mRNA Display Libraries

In vitro directed evolution techniques, such as mRNA display, enable peptide ligand discovery and optimization. However, physical libraries that rely on a genetic code can only search a small fraction of sequence space due to inherent biases in the genetic code and experimental limitations. To address this challenge, denoising diffusion implicit models (DDIMs) are applied to generate novel peptide ligands against B‐cell lymphoma extra‐large (Bcl‐x L ), a key cancer target. Starting with high‐throughput sequencing data from previous selections, a DDIM is trained to produce novel sequences with high affinity binding. Experimental validation confirms that most generated sequences are functionally equivalent to the original library members for Bcl‐x L binding and demonstrated comparable binding kinetics and affinity relative to the wildtype and nearest original neighbors. Importantly, this approach generated rare sequences not easily accessible via mutation and directed evolution. These results indicate that DDIMs can complement and expand directed evolution data, efficiently exploring underrepresented regions of sequence space. This approach provides a broadly applicable framework for accelerating ligand discovery and optimizing molecular properties across diverse targets.

Qi, Pearl [Mork Family Department of Chemical Engi↗
DOE OSTI2025

Interface morphology and dislocation-mediated processes during rapid solidification of thin films

Rapid solidification experiments have, in recent years, revealed a wealth of new microstructural phenomena that suggest a strong connection between the kinetics of solidification and the crystalline structures that emerge as a result. In this work, we investigate the interplay between interface morphology and defect-mediated processes during rapid solidification conditions using a Phase Field Crystal (PFC) model, enabling us to simultaneously and efficiently explore the physics of solidification and elasto-plasticity in the formalism of a single-field theory. We predict that there are two mechanisms by which dislocations emitted directly from the solid–liquid interface induce orientation gradients as well as the formation of subgrain boundaries within a single solidifying cell. We relate these mechanisms to the morphology of the moving solid–liquid interface and identify a suitable control parameter in the PFC model with which we can go between said morphologies by effectively changing the relative strength of the capillary length and kinetic coefficients of the solid–liquid interface. Thus, we are able to provide mechanistic explanations for several microstructural features (with an emphasis on orientation gradients and subgrain boundaries) observed during the rapid solidification of pure materials. We also provide a simple explanation for the formation of “jagged” subgrain boundaries, which is consistent with our experimental observations in rapidly solidified samples of Aluminum, whose mechanisms have thus far been unknown.

Interface morphology↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning insights into microstructural origins of transport and mechanical properties in porous microstructures

Multifunctional porous materials are increasingly needed across various fields, but their complex microstructures create significant challenges due to the intricate microstructure-property relationships. This complexity, combined with limitations of traditional analysis methods, hinders efforts to understand and optimize microstructure–property relationships. Here, to address this, we integrate physics-based mesoscale modeling with interpretable machine learning (ML) to uncover how microstructural features govern effective diffusivity and elastic modulus. At constant porosity, we show diffusivity varies by over 150 × and modulus by ∼50 ×, highlighting the power of microstructure engineering. Statistical analysis reveals bimodal behavior in diffusivity and unimodal in modulus. ML identifies connectivity as the dominant factor, while modulus is also sensitive to domain size and feature interactions. Controlled simulations further highlight domain shape as a critical feature for modulus. This framework enables efficient exploration of microstructure-property correlations, offering new insights to guide the design of advanced porous materials.

Bicontinuous microstructure↗
DOE OSTI2025

Genetic algorithm optimization of nuclear criticality experiment for reduction of intermediate-energy 239 Pu nuclear data uncertainties

Nuclear criticality experiments are conducted to investigate specific nuclear data important for safe handling and storage of fissile materials, reactor design and operation, and the validation of radiation transport codes. Incorrect or uncertain nuclear data can prohibitively impact operational safety limits, reactor licensing, and predictive simulation capability; therefore, integral measurements from criticality experiments are necessary and should be performed frequently. To maximize the impact of the integral measurements, it is important to consider experiment geometry, material selection, and component dimensions. When taking these considerations into account, the experiment design process becomes iterative and very time intensive. This work utilizes a genetic algorithm to efficiently explore potential nuclear criticality experiment designs for the Laboratory Directed Research & Development project PARADIGM (PARallel Approach of Differential and InteGral Measurements) at Los Alamos National Laboratory. In this paper, the building blocks of the genetic algorithm are discussed in detail, the genetic algorithm methodology is verified, and the genetic algorithm is used to produce three candidate experiment models for the final PARADIGM design. The three candidate models produced by the genetic algorithm consist of copper-reflected assemblies containing 14 repeating units of alumina, graphite, boron, and plutonium plates. Furthermore, in addition to the optimization results, final design considerations are also discussed for designs with a height and/or weight very close to or slightly above assembly machine operational limits.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

A new self-adaptive reconstruction method to identify defects through Wigner–Seitz approach

A new self-adaptive reconstruction method based on local atomic structure at any given molecular dynamics (MD) step has been developed in this article. The method can be used in Wigner–Seitz defect analysis approach to correctly and efficiently explore the information of both point defects and complex defect clusters (e.g. dislocation loops and voids) formed after a displacement cascade where the cascade interacts with grain boundaries and/or dislocations. The algorithm and validation are provided in detail. Results for identification of radiation defects during and after cascades interacting with a dislocation network show that the new method can well recognize all simple and complex defects and defect clusters. Thus, this new method provides a totally new way to explore the density and size of radiation defects at atomic scale after complex MD evolution processes, providing correct information to understand and predict radiation damage in materials through atomic simulations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning of a Short-Range Bond-Order Potential for Silica: Analytic Embedding of Coordination with Classical Efficiency

Reinforcement learning (RL) has recently emerged as a data-efficient strategy to parametrize short-range interatomic potentials. Building on our past RL optimization of pairwise silica models, we extend the framework to a bond-order (Tersoff-type) potential that provides an analytic embedding of local coordination through a three-body term. A hierarchical RL workflow combining continuous-action Monte Carlo Tree Search and property-based rewards efficiently explores the 26-dimensional parameter space, sequentially optimizing lattice parameters, densities, angles, and cohesive energies of 21 silica polymorphs. The resulting models, Q-Tersoff and ML-Tersoff, reproduce the energetic ordering of low-energy phases and capture the angular correlations and amorphous structure factors of silica with improved fidelity over pairwise force fields, while remaining orders of magnitude faster than high-dimensional machine-learned potentials. Both models underperform for elastic constants and high-energy frameworks, delineating the limits of the current analytic form. The approach establishes a general and interpretable route to angle-aware, short-range potentials that bridge physics-based and machine-learned descriptions of silicate materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sequence-defined structural transitions by calcium-responsive proteins

Biopolymer sequences dictate their functions, and protein-based polymers are a promising platform to establish sequence–function relationships for novel biopolymers. To efficiently explore vast sequence spaces of natural proteins, sequence repetition is a common strategy to tune and amplify specific functions. This strategy is applied to repeats-in-toxin (RTX) proteins with calcium-responsive folding behavior, which stems from tandem repeats of the nonapeptide GGXGXDXUX in which X can be any amino acid and U is a hydrophobic amino acid. To determine the functional range of this nonapeptide, we modified a naturally occurring RTX protein that forms β-roll structures in the presence of calcium. Sequence modifications focused on calcium-binding turns within the repetitive region, including either global substitution of nonconserved residues or complete replacement with tandem repeats of a consensus nonapeptide GGAGXDTLY. Some sequence modifications disrupted the typical transition from intrinsically disordered random coils to folded β rolls, despite conservation of the underlying nonapeptide sequence. Proteins enriched with smaller, hydrophobic amino acids adopted secondary structures in the absence of calcium and underwent structural rearrangements in calcium-rich environments. In contrast, proteins with bulkier, hydrophilic amino acids maintained intrinsic disorder in the absence of calcium. In conclusion, these results indicate a significant role of nonconserved amino acids in calcium-responsive folding, thereby revealing a strategy to leverage sequences in the design of tunable, calcium-responsive biopolymers.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrated edge-to-exascale workflow for real-time steering in neutron scattering experiments

We introduce a computational framework that integrates artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, and high-performance computing to enable real-time steering of neutron scattering experiments using an edge-to-exascale workflow. Focusing on time-of-flight neutron event data at the Spallation Neutron Source, our approach combines temporal processing of four-dimensional neutron event data with predictive modeling for multidimensional crystallography. At the core of this workflow is the Temporal Fusion Transformer model, which provides voxel-level precision in predicting 3D neutron scattering patterns. The system incorporates edge computing for rapid data preprocessing and exascale computing via the Frontier supercomputer for large-scale AI model training, enabling adaptive, data-driven decisions during experiments. This framework optimizes neutron beam time, improves experimental accuracy, and lays the foundation for automation in neutron scattering. Although real-time experiment steering is still in the proof-of-concept stage, the demonstrated potential of this system offers a substantial reduction in data processing time from hours to minutes via distributed training, and significant improvements in model accuracy, setting the stage for widespread adoption across neutron scattering facilities and more efficient exploration of complex material systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning accelerated prediction of Ce-based ternary compounds involving antagonistic pairs

The discovery of novel quantum materials within ternary phase spaces containing antagonistic pairs such as Fe with Bi, Pb, In, and Ag, presents significant challenges yet holds great potential. In this work, we investigate the stabilization of these immiscible pairs through the integration of Cerium (Ce), an abundant rare-earth and cost-effective element. By employing a machine learning (ML)-guided framework, particularly crystal graph convolutional neural networks (CGCNN), combined with first-principles calculations, we efficiently explore the composition/structure space and predict 9 stable and 37 metastable Ce-Fe-X (X=Bi, Pb, In, and Ag) ternary compounds. Our findings include the identification of multiple new stable and metastable phases, which are evaluated for their structural and energetic properties. These discoveries not only contribute to the advancement of quantum materials but also offer viable alternatives to critical rare earth elements, underscoring the importance of Ce-based intermetallic compounds in technological applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

ALchemist (Active Learning Toolkit for Chemical and Materials Research) [SWR-25-102]

ALchemist is a modular Python toolkit that brings active learning and Bayesian optimization to experimental design in chemical and materials research. It is designed for scientists and engineers who want to efficiently explore or optimize high-dimensional variable spaces—without writing code—using an intuitive graphical interface.

Coatney, Caleb [National Renewable Energy Laborato↗
NASA NTRS1984

An interactive computer code for calculation of gas-phase chemical equilibrium (EQLBRM)

A user friendly, menu driven, interactive computer program known as EQLBRM which calculates the adiabatic equilibrium temperature and product composition resulting from the combustion of hydrocarbon fuels with air, at specified constant pressure and enthalpy is discussed. The program is developed primarily as an instructional tool to be run on small computers to allow the user to economically and efficiency explore the effects of varying fuel type, air/fuel ratio, inlet air and/or fuel temperature, and operating pressure on the performance of continuous combustion devices such as gas turbine combustors, Stirling engine burners, and power generation furnaces.

Pratt, B. S.↗
NASA NTRS1987

On the next generation of reliability analysis tools

The current generation of reliability analysis tools concentrates on improving the efficiency of the description and solution of the fault-handling processes and providing a solution algorithm for the full system model. The tools have improved user efficiency in these areas to the extent that the problem of constructing the fault-occurrence model is now the major analysis bottleneck. For the next generation of reliability tools, it is proposed that techniques be developed to improve the efficiency of the fault-occurrence model generation and input. Further, the goal is to provide an environment permitting a user to provide a top-down design description of the system from which a Markov reliability model is automatically constructed. Thus, the user is relieved of the tedious and error-prone process of model construction, permitting an efficient exploration of the design space, and an independent validation of the system's operation is obtained. An additional benefit of automating the model construction process is the opportunity to reduce the specialized knowledge required. Hence, the user need only be an expert in the system he is analyzing; the expertise in reliability analysis techniques is supplied.

Babcock, Philip S., IV↗
NASA NTRS1992

Lunar He-3, fusion propulsion, and space development

The recent identification of a substantial lunar resource of the fusion energy fuel He-3 may provide the first terrestrial market for a lunar commodity and, therefore, a major impetus to lunar development. The impact of this resource-when burned in D-He-3 fusion reactors for space power and propulsion-may be even more significant as an enabling technology for safe, efficient exploration and development of space. One possible reactor configuration among several options, the tandem mirror, illustrates the potential advantages of fusion propulsion. The most important advantage is the ability to provide either fast, piloted vessels or high-payload-fraction cargo vessels due to a range of specific impulses from 50 sec to 1,000,000 sec at thrust-to-weight ratios from 0.1 to 5x10(exp -5). Fusion power research has made steady, impressive progress. It is plausible, and even probable, that fusion rockets similar to the designs presented here will be available in the early part of the twenty-first century, enabling a major expansion of human presence into the solar system.

Santarius, John F.↗