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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Hierarchical Bayesian Inverse Problems: A High-Dimensional Statistics Viewpoint

This paper analyzes hierarchical Bayesian inverse problems using techniques from highdimensional statistics. Furthermore, our analysis leverages a property of hierarchical Bayesian regularizers that we call approximate decomposability to obtain non-asymptotic bounds on the reconstruction error attained by maximum a posteriori estimators. The new theory explains how hierarchical Bayesian models that exploit sparsity, group sparsity, and sparse representations of the unknown parameter can achieve accurate reconstructions in high-dimensional settings.

MAP estimation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian analysis of (3 +1)⁢D relativistic nuclear dynamics with the RHIC beam energy scan data

This work presents a Bayesian inference study for relativistic heavy-ion collisions in the beam energy scan program at the BNL Relativistic Heavy-Ion Collider. The theoretical model simulates event-by-event (3+1)-dimensional [(3+1)⁢D] collision dynamics using hydrodynamics and hadronic transport theory. We analyze the model's 20-dimensional posterior distributions obtained using three model emulators with different accuracy and demonstrate the essential role of training an accurate model emulator in the Bayesian analysis. Our analysis provides robust constraints on the quark-gluon plasma's transport properties and various aspects of (3+1)⁢D relativistic nuclear dynamics. By running full model simulations with 100 parameter sets sampled from the posterior distribution, we make predictions for p T -differential observables and estimate their systematic theory uncertainty. Here, a sensitivity analysis is performed to elucidate how individual experimental observables respond to different model parameters, providing useful physics insights into the phenomenological model for heavy-ion collisions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Triple Catalytic Action of Tertiary Nitrogen Catalysts in Recyclable Epoxy-Anhydride Thermosets

The thermosetting polymer matrix in fiber reinforced composites is an important component for energy related applications, such as the lightweighting of vehicles or their use in wind and waterpower turbine blades, due to their ability to provide superior adhesion, stiffness, and applicability to a wide range of manufacturing processes. Despite these benefits, today's thermosets are widely considered to be unrecyclable; thus, there is a large interest in redesigning these materials to be inherently recyclable so that energy intensive production of fibers and monomers can be circumvented, bolstering composite manufacture supply chains. Polyester covalent adaptable networks (PECANs) are one such promising alternative to the incumbent, nonrecyclable epoxy-amine thermosets. PECANs can be formed from the ring-opening co-polymerization (ROCOP) of epoxy-anhydride monomer mixtures and subsequent curing at mild temperatures to exhibit similar performance to conventional epoxies while also possessing unique dynamic chemistries along the ester-hydroxyl backbone that are capable of transesterification and thus reprocessability. While significant advancements have been made in formulating these materials for improved mechanical properties or optimizing solvolysis and reprocessing strategies, less attention has been placed on the impact of the residing amine catalyst used to generate the polyester network. In this work, we evaluated the triple-catalytic efficacy of 12 tertiary amines that act as a curing (bulk ROCOP), a transesterification (internal bond exchange), and a deconstruction (methanolysis) catalyst for PECAN thermosets. Specifically, we first distinguish between chain-growth and step-growth polymerization mechanisms for epoxy-amine and epoxy-anhydride mechanisms. We also utilized density functional theory (DFT) to estimate the basicity (pKb) of each catalyst. Of the tested catalysts, the ROCOP of the studied PECAN network can be completed between 95 and 247 min (at 80 degrees C), with variable gelation phenomena. Additionally, the stress relaxation (transesterification metric) efficiency of the tested PECAN networks with alternative embedded catalysts ranged from 95% to 15% reduction in stress after 5 h at 200 degrees C, and the depolymerization efficacy ranged from 2.5% to 9.8% deconstruction after 36 h at 130 degrees C. Overall, the nitrogen-based moieties were demonstrated to influence polymerization kinetics, catalyze the dynamic transesterification exchange mechanism, and aid in the solvolysis of the thermosets at end-of-life.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Energy-enhanced expansion of the standard model effective field theory

We formalize energy-scaling arguments in the standard model effective field theory (SMEFT) to estimate the effects of operators up to dimension ten. Our approach relies on weakly coupled UV completions with no presumed large hierarchies between the Wilson coefficients. We introduce a classification based on the number of external legs and an energy-counting parameter. We establish a dual expansion in 𝑣/Λ and 𝐸/Λ. Extending to four-, five-, and six-particle vertices, our framework highlights energy-enhanced operators that dominate high-energy processes at the High Luminosity-Large Hadron Collider. This organization streamlines experimental analyses to only include operators with energetic impact in their analyses and enhances the discoverability of new physics within the SMEFT framework.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

FORGE STRESS annual report

The project's goal is to combine high-fidelity numerical models and true-triaxial block fracturing tests at high temperatures to understand the relationship between in situ stress, thermal effects, wellbore orientations and hydraulic fracture patterns. The numerical models are calibrated against field data, such as well pressures and microseismic data, and employed to estimate the in situ stress at the FORGE site. Laboratory experiments investigate the complex physics driving hydraulic fracture nucleation in EGS, enhancing understanding of the role of parameters like temperature, well orientation, and stress. Additionally, they are employed to validate some of the numerical tools used in the project. The project will have a significant impact by: (1) improving the characterization of the in-situ stress field at FORGE; (2) demonstrating the use of high-fidelity modeling tools for EGS; (3) providing a unique set of high-temperature hydraulic fracturing results to identify key components for in-situ stress estimation, validate current theories, and propose new ones; (4) offering a validated set of numerical tools within an open-source simulation framework, GEOS, that will be available to any future user.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Grid Topology Discovery Algorithm Evaluation of Suitability for Utility Deployment (CRADA 606 Final Report)

This work presents the results of a field-informed demonstration aimed at evaluating the practical suitability of a topology discovery algorithm for utility environments. We demonstrated an algorithm that uses a graph-theory-informed state estimation approach for model selection. In collaboration with Survalent and Peninsula Light Co., the algorithm was applied to real feeder models and field measurements from supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) and advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) systems to identify the operational topology of a power distribution system. The demonstration assessed the algorithm’s performance under realistic data conditions, including sparse and noisy measurements, and examined its ability to identify the most likely network configurations. The results confirmed that the approach can effectively narrow down feasible topologies, providing operators with improved situational awareness of network status. Key lessons learned emphasize the need for systematic data validation and strategic sensor placement to enhance observability. These insights inform future deployment strategies and guide refinements for broader adoption in utility operations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Emulators for Scarce and Noisy Data: Application to Auxiliary-Field Diffusion Monte Carlo for Neutron Matter

Understanding the equation of state (EOS) of pure neutron matter is necessary for interpreting multimessenger observations of neutron stars. Reliable data analyses of these observations require well-quantified uncertainties for the EOS input, ideally propagating uncertainties from nuclear interactions directly to the EOS. This, however, requires calculations of the EOS for a prohibitively larger number of nuclear Hamiltonians, solving the nuclear many-body problem for each one. Quantum Monte Carlo methods, such as auxiliary-field diffusion Monte Carlo (AFDMC), provide precise and accurate results for the neutron matter EOS, but they are very computationally expensive, making them unsuitable for the fast evaluations necessary for uncertainty propagation. Here, we employ parametric matrix models to develop fast emulators for AFDMC calculations of neutron matter and use them to directly propagate uncertainties of coupling constants in the Hamiltonian to the EOS. As these uncertainties include estimates of the effective field theory truncation uncertainty, this approach provides robust uncertainty estimates for use in astrophysical data analyses. In conclusion, this Letter will enable novel applications such as using astrophysical observations to put constraints on coupling constants for nuclear interactions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Covariance operator estimation: Sparsity, lengthscale, and ensemble Kalman filters

This paper investigates covariance operator estimation via thresholding. For Gaussian random fields with approximately sparse covariance operators, we establish non-asymptotic bounds on the estimation error in terms of the sparsity level of the covariance and the expected supremum of the field. We prove that thresholded estimators enjoy an exponential improvement in sample complexity compared with the standard sample covariance estimator if the field has a small correlation lengthscale. As an application of the theory, we study thresholded estimation of covariance operators within ensemble Kalman filters.

Covariance operator estimation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Transient anisotropic kernel for probabilistic learning on manifolds

PLoM (Probabilistic Learning on Manifolds) is a method introduced in 2016 for handling small training datasets by projecting an Itô equation from a stochastic dissipative Hamiltonian dynamical system, acting as the MCMC generator, for which the KDE-estimated probability measure with the training dataset is the invariant measure. PLoM performs a projection on a reduced-order vector basis related to the training dataset, using the diffusion maps (DMAPS) basis constructed with a time-independent isotropic kernel. In this paper, we propose a new ISDE projection vector basis built from a transient anisotropic kernel, providing an alternative to the DMAPS basis to improve statistical surrogates for stochastic manifolds with heterogeneous data. The construction ensures that for times near the initial time, the DMAPS basis coincides with the transient basis. For larger times, the differences between the two bases are characterized by the angle of their spanned vector subspaces. The optimal instant yielding the optimal transient basis is determined using an estimation of mutual information from Information Theory, which is normalized by the entropy estimation to account for the effects of the number of realizations used in the estimations. Consequently, this new vector basis better represents statistical dependencies in the learned probability measure for any dimension. Three applications with varying levels of statistical complexity and data heterogeneity validate the proposed theory, showing that the transient anisotropic kernel improves the learned probability measure.

Diffusion maps↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty Estimation and Anomaly Detection in Chiral Effective Field Theory Studies of Key Nuclear Electroweak Processes

Chiral effective field theory (χEFT) is a powerful tool for studying electroweak processes in nuclei. I discuss χEFT calculations of three key nuclear electroweak processes: primordial deuterium production, proton-proton fusion, and magnetic dipole excitations of 48 Ca. Further, this article showcases χEFT’s ability to quantify theory uncertainties at the appropriate level of rigor for addressing the different precision demands of these three processes.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multiple Operando Fields Can Identify a Predictive Mass Transport Theory in Electrolytes

An electrolyte transport theory connects its transport properties, evolution of spatiotemporal fields (e.g., concentration), and corresponding macroscopic current and voltage responses. Given this interconnection, the transport properties are typically inferred by analyzing the macroscopic response through the lens of a chosen electrolyte transport theory. Unfortunately, the same macroscopic measurements can be analyzed by using different theories to arrive at seemingly dissimilar properties that are inconsistent with each other. Here, we offer a resolution to this dilemma by analyzing multiple spatiotemporal (i.e., operando) fields for a given electrolyte. We show that predictive transport theory can analyze operando fields to estimate underlying transport properties and subsequently predict another operando field. A theory passing this test identifies meaningful transport properties such that the electrolyte behavior can be accurately predicted over a wide range of excitations, and is critical to property-based electrolyte screening and electrolyte discovery efforts.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Coherent Spins in van der Waals Semiconductor GeS 2 at Ambient Conditions

Optically active spin defects in van der Waals (vdW) materials have emerged as versatile quantum sensors, enabling applications for a wide range of quantum phenomena in condensed matter systems. Their ease of exfoliation and compatibility with device integration make them promising candidates for future quantum technologies. Here we report the observation and room-temperature coherent control of ensemble spin defects in the high-temperature crystalline phase of germanium disulfide (β-GeS 2 ), a two-dimensional (2D) semiconductor with low nuclear spin density. The defects exhibit spin-1/2 behavior, and their dynamics can be explained by a weakly coupled spin-pair model. We implement dynamical decoupling techniques to extend the coherence time (T 2 ) by a factor of 20. Finally, we use density functional theory (DFT) calculations to estimate the structures and spin densities of two possible spin defect candidates. This work will help to expand the field of quantum sensing with spin defects in 2D materials.

2D materials↗
DOE OSTI2026

Predictive Chemical Kinetic Modeling: Where We Succeed, Where We Struggle, and What Comes Next

Chemical kinetic modeling plays a foundational role in fields ranging from energy to environmental science, pharmaceuticals, and advanced materials. The past two decades have seen remarkable progress, particularly in modeling gas-phase reactions for thermochemical processes, leading to impactful industrial applications such as steam cracking and air quality management. However, new challenges are emerging. The successful development of systematic methodologies for the description of gas-phase kinetics opens the possibility to apply the same approach to the study of more challenging systems. Here, we review recent advances, including ab initio transition state theory-based master equation estimation of elementary rates, automated mechanism generation, machine-learning-assisted kinetics, and uncertainty quantification, and discuss the advances needed to apply the same methodological approach in areas such as heterogeneous catalysis, electrochemistry, liquid-phase and solid-state reactivity, and multiscale model integration. We advocate for the development of targeted tools, especially methods that go beyond empirical tuning toward first-principles-based predictions. We highlight the need for accessible software and AIaugmented workflows to democratize modeling for industry and academia alike. In this perspective, we call attention to not only what has worked but also what remains unsolved, advocating to avoid overemphasizing successes in scientific works at the expense of realism. The next decade should focus on predictive capability, physical accuracy, and community infrastructure (e.g., databases and services) to enable innovation across diverse fields. We argue that kinetic modeling, properly equipped, can accelerate discovery far beyond its traditional domains.

ab initio calculations↗
DOE OSTI2025

Onset of cavitation and vapor bubble development over hydrophilic and hydrophobic surfaces

Cavitation, the formation of vapor bubbles as the liquid pressure is reduced below the saturated vapor pressure, often requires a substantial negative relative pressure in a pure liquid. Classical nucleation theory (CNT) provides an estimate for the rate of cavitation but there is often a disconnect between the predictions at the molecular scale compared to observations at the macroscale. We report on mesoscale simulations of cavitation based on many-body dissipative particle dynamics (mDPD), a coarse-grained molecular dynamics (MD), which bridges the two scales. A liquid layer is confined between smooth planar walls at a constant temperature, while the pressure is reduced slowly by expanding the wall-bounded domain. The wetting properties of the liquid are determined by the parameters of the interaction potentials. With hydrophilic walls, homogeneous nucleation is observed in the liquid bulk. As a bubble forms and grows, it creates a strong pressure pulse and oscillations that cause other bubbles that may have formed slightly later to collapse. For a nearly neutral wall with a contact angle close to 90 ° , heterogeneous nucleation occurs at the walls at a smaller negative pressure and generates weaker pressure oscillations. With hydrophobic walls or seed particles, heterogeneous nucleation readily occurs, where fluctuations and the merger of transient surface bubbles are significant.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Variance reduction in lattice QCD observables via normalizing flows

Normalizing flows can be used to construct unbiased, reduced-variance estimators for lattice field theory observables that are defined by a derivative with respect to action parameters. This work implements the approach for observables involving gluonic operator insertions in the SU(3) Yang-Mills theory and two-flavor QCD in four space-time dimensions. Variance reduction by factors of 10–60 is achieved in glueball correlation functions and in gluonic matrix elements related to hadron structure, with demonstrated computational advantages. The observed variance reduction is found to be approximately independent of the lattice volume, so volume transfer can be utilized to minimize training costs.

Abbott, Ryan [Columbia U.; MIT, Cambridge, CTP; IA↗
DOE OSTI2025

Security Analysis of a Class of Spread Spectrum Systems Presentation

A method of adding physical layer security to a class of spread spectrum systems has been recently proposed. In this paper, we look into the rate at which an eavesdropper may gain information about the system to decipher the data symbols. The Shannon mutual information is used to measure the rate of information that may be gained by an eavesdropper. The k-nearest neighbors (k-NN) method is used to obtain estimates of relevant entropy values, which will then be used to quantify the rate of information recovery as more data is transmitted. It turns out that such information recovery requires the adoption of special methods that avoid any destructive bias in the estimates. Details of these methods are also presented.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Covariance operator estimation via adaptive thresholding

This paper studies sparse covariance operator estimation for nonstationary processes with sharply varying marginal variance and small correlation lengthscale. We introduce a covariance operator estimator that adaptively thresholds the sample covariance function using an estimate of the variance component. Building on recent results from empirical process theory, we derive an operator norm bound on the estimation error in terms of the sparsity level of the covariance and the expected supremum of a normalized process. Furthermore, our theory and numerical simulations demonstrate the advantage of adaptive threshold estimators over universal threshold and sample covariance estimators in nonstationary settings.

Al-Ghattas, Omar [University of Chicago, IL (Unite↗
DOE OSTI2026

Entanglement Throughput Measurements and Capacity Estimates for Aerial-Inground Fiber

The throughput of entangled qubit pairs per second (eqps) is a basic performance metric of quantum networks that provide the entanglement distribution capability. Over fiber connections, it is measured using specialized instruments, including photonic entanglement sources and single-photon detectors. Extensive theory has been developed to estimate the capacity of a generic quantum channel, which in turn is applied to estimate the maximum achievable eqps over a fiber connection. However, there is a gap in relating these two performance metrics, in part due to their disparate nature, namely, mathematical formulae of the channel capacity and specialized instrumentation for eqps measurements. We describe eqps measurements collected over testbed connections composed of aerial and inground fiber of lengths up to 45 km. We estimate the normalized capacity using the transmissivity parameter derived from single photon detector measurements. These estimates are then converted to capacity bounds on the connection's eqps using the source eqps rate derived from co-located detector measurements. The results indicate a consistency between eqps measurements and their capacity estimates, and provide insights into relating the parameters of analytic capacity estimates to physical measurements.

Rao, Nageswara [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000234085941)↗