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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Plutonium Age Dating Interlaboratory Comparison Overview - Project Design, Sample Preparation, and Results [Slides]

Project Design – How do you validate measured Pu model age? There are no certified reference materials (CRMs) that are certified for Pu model age or purification dates. There are no Am isotopic CRMs - IRMM 0243 243 Am spike has 241 Am impurity that can be used; Community working toward "consensus ages." This project executed and evaluated results from a Pu age dating interlaboratory comparison with six IAEA NWAL participant laboratories. It also ran the first quality control evaluation of single-picogram to sub-picogram scale interlaboratory 241 Am assay measurements from cotton swipe matrices. Results are promising, with a majority of 241 Am/ 241 Pu model age results agree to within 1 to 4 years. The calculated 241 Am assay results show interlaboratory variability, expanded percent uncertainties on calculated consensus 241 Am concentrations were: PuAge-S1 = 3.1 %, PuAge-S2 = 23 %, and PuAge-S3 = 26 %. Data can be used to investigate laboratory methods and improve precision and accuracy of 241 Pu and 241 Am assay for future campaigns.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The impact of neutrino-nucleus interaction modeling on new physics searches

Accurate neutrino-nucleus interaction modeling is an essential requirement for the success of the accelerator-based neutrino program. As no satisfactory description of cross sections exists, experiments tune neutrino-nucleus interactions to data to mitigate mis-modeling. In this work, we study how the interplay between near detector tuning and cross section mis-modeling affects new physics searches. We perform a realistic simulation of neutrino events and closely follow NOvA’s tuning, the first published of such procedures in a neutrino experiment. We analyze two illustrative new physics scenarios, sterile neutrinos and light neutrinophilic scalars, presenting the relevant experimental signatures and the sensitivity regions with and without tuning. While the tuning does not wash out sterile neutrino oscillation patterns, cross section mis-modeling can bias the experimental sensitivity. In the case of light neutrinophilic scalars, variations in cross section models completely dominate the sensitivity regardless of any tuning. Our findings reveal the critical need to improve our theoretical understanding of neutrino-nucleus interactions, and to estimate the impact of tuning on new physics searches. We urge neutrino experiments to follow NOvA’s example and publish the details of their tuning procedure, and to develop strategies to more robustly account for cross section uncertainties, which will expand the scope of their physics program.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Vapor and Liquid ( p –ρ– T–x ) Measurements of Binary Refrigerant Blends Containing R-32, R-152a, R-227ea, R-1234yf, and R-1234ze(E)

In this article, The pressure–density–temperature–composition (p–ρ–T–x) data of binary refrigerant mixtures containing R-32 (difluoromethane), R-152a (1,1,-difluoroethane), R-227ea (1,1,1,2,3,3,3-heptafluoropropane), R-1234yf (2,3,3,3-tetrafluoropropene), and R-1234ze(E) (trans-1,3,3,3-tetrafluoropropene) were measured in both the vapor and liquid phases using a two-sinker, magnetic suspension densimeter. The specific samples in this study comprised two compositions of approximately (0.3/0.7) and (0.7/0.3) mole fraction for each of the following four binary refrigerant blends: R-32 + R-1234yf, R-32 + R-1234ze(E), R-1234yf + R-152a, and R-1234ze(E) + R-227ea. Single-phase vapor densities were measured over a temperature range of approximately 253 to 293 K and pressures from 0.05 to 0.98 MPa. Single-phase liquid and supercritical densities were measured over a temperature range of approximately 230 to 400 K and pressures up to 22 MPa; for refrigerant blends containing R-1234yf, the maximum pressure was limited to 14 MPa. Overall relative combined, expanded (k = 2) uncertainties in density ranged from 0.025 to 0.191%, with an average uncertainty of approximately 0.05%. Here, we present measurement results, along with comparisons to available literature data and to default equations of state and mixture models included in REFPROP.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Extension of charged-particle spectrometer capabilities for diagnosing implosions on OMEGA, Z, and the NIF

New designs and a new analysis technique have been developed for an existing compact charged-particle spectrometer on the NIF and OMEGA. The new analysis technique extends the capabilities of this diagnostic to measure arbitrarily shaped ion spectra down to 1 MeV with yields as low as 10 6 . Three different designs are provided optimized for the measurement of DD protons, T 3 He deuterons, and 3 He 3 He protons. The designs are highly customizable, and a generalized framework is provided for optimizing the design for alternative applications. Additionally, the understanding of the detector’s response and uncertainties is greatly expanded upon. A new calibration procedure is also developed to increase the precision of the measurements.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Veridical data science

Building and expanding on principles of statistics, machine learning, and scientific inquiry, we propose the predictability, computability, and stability (PCS) framework for veridical data science. Our framework, composed of both a workflow and documentation, aims to provide responsible, reliable, reproducible, and transparent results across the data science life cycle. The PCS workflow uses predictability as a reality check and considers the importance of computation in data collection/storage and algorithm design. It augments predictability and computability with an overarching stability principle. Stability expands on statistical uncertainty considerations to assess how human judgment calls impact data results through data and model/algorithm perturbations. As part of the PCS workflow, we develop PCS inference procedures, namely PCS perturbation intervals and PCS hypothesis testing, to investigate the stability of data results relative to problem formulation, data cleaning, modeling decisions, and interpretations. We illustrate PCS inference through neuroscience and genomics projects of our own and others. Moreover, we demonstrate its favorable performance over existing methods in terms of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves in high-dimensional, sparse linear model simulations, including a wide range of misspecified models. Finally, we propose PCS documentation based on R Markdown or Jupyter Notebook, with publicly available, reproducible codes and narratives to back up human choices made throughout an analysis. The PCS workflow and documentation are demonstrated in a genomics case study available on Zenodo.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Material Interactions in Severe Accidents – Benchmarking the MELCOR V2.2 Eutectics Model for a BWR-3 Mark-I Station Blackout: Part II – Uncertainty Analysis

Single case comparisons between severe accident simulations can provide detailed insights into severe accident model behavior, however, they cannot offer insights into model uncertainty, sensitivity to uncertain parameters, or underlying model biases.Here in this analysis, the single case benchmark comparison of the MELCOR material interaction models for a station blackout (SBO) scenario of a boiling water reactor (BWR) using representative Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 boundary conditions is expanded to include an uncertainty analysis. As part of this uncertainty analysis, 1200 simulations are performed for each material interaction model (2400 total), with random sampling of 14 uncertain MELCOR input parameters. Input parameters are selected for their impact on models representing core degradation processes. These include candling, fuel rod failure, debris quenching and dryout. The analysis performed here is not a traditional “best-estimate” uncertainty analysis that uses best-estimate parameters or identifies best-estimate figure of merit distributions. Instead, it is an exploratory uncertainty analysis that identifies and interrogates underlying model form biases of the two material interaction models (eutectics and interactive materials models). Uniform distributions are applied to all uncertain parameters to ensure coverage of the model parameter uncertainty space. Key findings from this study include underlying model form biases exhibited by material interaction models, and notable differences in accident progression outcomes between the material interaction models. This uncertainty study extends and confirms the conclusions from the first part of this study, which compared the impact of material interaction modeling on simulation of a short-term station blackout scenario with representative Fukushima Daiichi Unit I boundary conditions. In particular, this study confirms that the eutectics model generally exhibits accelerated degradation and failure of fuel components, the core plate, and the lower head. The eutectics model also has a tendency to exhibit a greater degree of core degradation, greater debris mass formation, and larger debris mass ejection. Finally, the eutectics model exhibits higher maximum temperatures for fuel, cladding, particulate debris, oxidic molten pool, and metallic molten pool components than the interactive materials model; interactive materials model simulations exhibit a soft “limitation” on maximum temperatures that is related to the temperature at which material relocation occurs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Universe at z > 10: predictions for JWST from the universemachine DR1

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is expected to observe galaxies at z > 10 that are presently inaccessible. Here, we use a self-consistent empirical model, the universemachine, to generate mock galaxy catalogues and light-cones over the redshift range z = 0-15. These data include realistic galaxy properties (stellar masses, star formation rates, and UV luminosities), galaxy–halo relationships, and galaxy–galaxy clustering. Mock observables are also provided for different model parameters spanning observational uncertainties at z < 10. We predict that Cycle 1 JWST surveys will very likely detect galaxies with M* > 10 7 M⊙ and/or M 1500 < -17 out to at least z ~ 13.5. Number density uncertainties at z > 12 expand dramatically, so efforts to detect z > 12 galaxies will provide the most valuable constraints on galaxy formation models. Additionally, the faint-end slopes of the stellar mass/luminosity functions at a given mass/luminosity threshold steepen as redshift increases. This is because observable galaxies are hosted by haloes in the exponentially falling regime of the halo mass function at high redshifts. Hence, these faint-end slopes are robustly predicted to become shallower below current observable limits (M* < 10 7 M⊙ or M 1500 > -17). For reionization models, extrapolating luminosity functions with a constant faint-end slope from M 1500 = -17 down to M 1500 = -12 gives the most reasonable upper limit for the total UV luminosity and cosmic star formation rate up to z ~ 12. We compare to three other empirical models and one semi-analytic model, showing that the range of predicted observables from our approach encompasses predictions from other techniques. Public catalogues and light-cones for common fields are available online.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Speed of Sound Measurements of Binary Mixtures of Hydrofluorocarbons [Pentafluoroethane (R-125), 1,1-Difluoroethane (R-152a), or 1,1,1,2,3,3,3-Heptafluoropropane (R-227ea)] with Hydrofluoroolefins [2,3,3,3-Tetrafluoropropene (R-1234yf) or trans-1,3,3,3-Tetrafluoropropene (R-1234ze(E))]

In this article, speed of sound data measured using a dual-path pulse-echo instrument are reported for three binary refrigerant mixtures, R-125/1234yf, R-1234yf/152a, and R-1234ze(E)/227ea, at compositions of (0.33/0.67) and (0.67/0.33) mole fraction. The speed of sound was studied at temperatures ranging from 230 K to 345 K from pressures slightly above the bubble point curve up to 20 MPa for the mixtures containing R-1234yf and 49 MPa for the R-1234ze(E)/227ea mixtures. The relative combined expanded speed of sound uncertainty ranged from 0.039 % to 0.317 % with a mean uncertainty over all state points of less than 0.10 %. The reported data are compared to the most recent mixture models in REFPROP for each blend studied. Comparisons of available mixture models for the R-125/1234yf and R-1234yf/152a blends exhibit average absolute deviation values ranging from 0.10 % to 0.27 %, and the average absolute deviations for R-1234ze(E)/227ea blends range from 0.62 % to 0.94 %. The comparisons show that only minor adjustments are required to the R-125/1234yf and R-1234yf/152a mixture models to represent the speed of sound data within its uncertainty. However, significant adjustments are needed to improve the current mixture models for the R-1234ze(E)/227ea blend. Deficiencies with the R-1234ze(E)/227ea mixture model are not unexpected since it (1) utilizes a pure-fluid EOS R-1234ze(E) that has been shown to inaccurately represent R-1234ze(E) speed of sound values and (2) uses binary interaction parameters for the chemically similar mixture of R-1234yf/227ea.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Compressed Liquid (${{p}}$-${{\rho}}$-${{T}}$) Measurements of trans-1,2-Dichloroethene [R-1130(E)]

Pressure-density-temperature (${{p}}$-${{\rho}}$-${{T}}$) data for the refrigerant R-1130(E) (trans-1,2-dichloroethene) were measured in the compressed liquid phase using an automated vibrating-tube densimeter. Overall, the measurements covered temperatures from 270 K to 410 K and pressures from 0.5 MPa to 30 MPa. Relative combined, expanded (95% confidence level) uncertainties ranged from approximately 0.05% to 0.06%. Here, we present measurement results, along with comparisons to available literature data and to a generalized extended corresponding states model.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Safety-Related Instrumentation and Control Pilot Upgrade: Initial Scoping Phase Implementation and Lessons Learned

In May 2016, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) staff provided a digital instrumentation and control (I&C) regulatory infrastructure integrated action plan to the NRC for approval. One of the objectives of that plan was to establish a clear regulatory structure with reduced regulatory uncertainty to enable the expanded safe use of digital I&C in commercial nuclear reactors while continuing to ensure safety and security. To achieve this end, the NRC, with collaboration from industry, developed a streamlined License Amendment Request Alternate Review (AR) process for safety-related (SR) digital I&C upgrades. In spite of this effort, the industry has remained reluctant to perform such I&C upgrades because of perceived regulatory and financial risks associated with being the first or an early adopter of the AR process for SR I&C upgrades. The U.S. Department of Energy Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program at the Idaho National Laboratory performed Initial Scoping Phase research to help break this impasse by supporting a SR I&C Pilot Upgrade, working with MPR Associates, ScottMadden Inc., and Exelon Generation. Exelon’s Limerick Generating Station (LGS) was selected as the target for this research. This paper summarizes the Initial Scoping Phase engineering and operations, licensing, and project management activities necessary to bound the scope, schedule, and estimated cost of the project sufficiently to enable utility management authorization of Conceptual Design Phase activities. These efforts and associated products are intended to provide a template to support larger industry efforts to perform similar upgrades as a foundation stone for a digital transformation that will improve plant safety, reliability, and operational performance while lowering plant total cost of ownership. As a result of the combined effort of Exelon Generation and research participants, Conceptual Design Phase activities for the subject upgrade at LGS were approved by Exelon. Further, the U.S. Department of Energy also awarded a $50 million cost share award to Exelon in order to pave the way for SR I&C modernization and associated control room upgrades across the U.S. nuclear fleet. Additional research reports are planned for the Conceptual Design Phase, Detailed Design Phase, and the Implementation Phase of the LGS project to document the process followed and promulgate lessons learned to industry.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing generative molecular design via uncertainty-guided fine-tuning of variational autoencoders

In recent years, deep generative models have been successfully applied to various molecular design tasks, particularly in the life and materials sciences. One critical challenge for pre-trained generative molecular design (GMD) models is to fine-tune them to be better suited for downstream design tasks that aim at optimizing specific molecular properties. However, redesigning and training an existing effective generative model from scratch for each new design task are impractical. Furthermore, the black-box nature of typical downstream tasks that involve property prediction makes it nontrivial to optimize the generative model in a task-specific manner. In this work, we propose an uncertainty-guided fine-tuning strategy that can effectively enhance a pre-trained variational autoencoder (VAE) for GMD through performance feedback in an active learning setting. The strategy begins by quantifying the model uncertainty of the generative model using an efficient active subspace-based UQ (uncertainty quantification) scheme. Next, the decoder diversity within the characterized model uncertainty class is explored to expand the viable space of molecular generation. The low-dimensionality of the active subspace makes this exploration tractable using a black-box optimization scheme, which in turn enables us to identify and leverage a diverse set of high-performing models to generate enhanced molecules. Empirical results across six target molecular properties using multiple VAE-based generative models demonstrate that our uncertainty-guided fine-tuning strategy consistently leads to improved models that outperform the original pre-trained models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Opportunities and challenges for the expansion of LFP battery supply chains

Global markets for energy storage are growing rapidly, with some applications transitioning from traditional LiNi x Mn y Co 1−x−y O 2 (NMC) toward LiFePO 4 (LFP) due to cost, safety, and performance advantages. Battery growth has seeded interest in critical material supplies such as high-purity lithium precursors. In contrast, challenges in securing high-purity iron and phosphorus, historically not considered critical materials, are often overlooked. Precursors must remain inexpensive to maintain LFP's current cost advantage, which leverages the low-cost (∼$\$100$ per t) FeSO 4 byproduct from titanium dioxide manufacturing and will not be available as LFP manufacturing expands. As an alternative, iron is mined primarily for steel manufacturing, for which the existing supply chain and beneficiation process is optimized. LFP batteries require small iron volumes compared to steel (0.11%), but profit margins associated with existing low-cost iron ores and high costs (∼$27 000 per t) associated with low volume high-purity iron oxides may limit interest in manufacturing small volumes of high-purity, specialized iron battery precursors. The complementary LFP precursor, phosphoric acid (H 3 PO 4 ), is primarily utilized in fertilizers. Of the current phosphate ore demand for fertilizers, 4–22.8% would be required to meet projected 2045 LFP H 3 PO 4 demand, suggesting significant supply chain planning is needed to achieve projected demand. If only higher-grade material is considered, demand jumps to 15–77% of current world production. While lithium precursor purity requirements have been evaluated (Li 2 CO 3 is commonly defined as ≥99.5%), “battery grade” iron and phosphorus precursors remain poorly defined, with no internationally accessible and widely adopted standard, further challenging expanding industry by creating manufacturing uncertainty and increasing potential costs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Differential analysis of incompressibility in neutron-rich nuclei

Both the incompressibility K A of a finite nucleus of mass A and that (K ∞ ) of infinite nuclear matter are fundamentally important for many critical issues in nuclear physics and astrophysics. While some consensus has been reached about K ∞ , accurate theoretical predictions and experimental extractions of K τ characterizing the isospin dependence of K A have been very difficult. We propose a differential approach to extract K τ and K ∞ independently from the K A data of any two nuclei in a given isotope chain. Applying this method to the K A data from isoscalar giant monopole resonances (ISGMR) in even-even Pb, Sn, Cd, and Ca isotopes taken by Garg et al. at the Research Center for Nuclear Physics (RCNP), Osaka University, Japan, we find that the 106 Cd– 116 Cd and 112 Sn– 124 Sn pairs having the largest differences in isospin asymmetries in their respective isotope chains measured so far provide consistently the most accurate up-to-date K τ value of K τ = –616 ± 59 MeV and K τ =–623 ± 86 MeV, respectively, largely independent of the remaining uncertainties of the surface and Coulomb terms in expanding K A , while the K ∞ values extracted from different isotopes chains are all well within the current uncertainty range of the community consensus for K ∞ . Moreover, the size and origin of the “soft Sn puzzle” is studied with respect to the “stiff Pb phenomenon.” Furthermore, it is found that the latter is favored due to a much larger (by ≈ 380 MeV) K τ for Pb isotopes than for Sn isotopes, while K ∞ from analyzing the K A data of Sn isotopes is only about 5 MeV less than that from analyzing the Pb data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Measurement of non-prompt ${{\textrm{D}}^{0}}$-meson elliptic flow in Pb–Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{\textrm{NN}}} = 5.02$ TeV

The elliptic flow (v 2 ) of D 0 mesons from beauty-hadron decays (non-prompt D 0 was measured in midcentral (30–50%) Pb–Pb collisions at a centre-of-mass energy per nucleon pair $\sqrt{s_{\textrm{NN}}} = 5.02$ TeV with the ALICE detector at the LHC. The D 0 mesons were reconstructed at midrapidity $(|y|<0.8)$ from their hadronic decay D 0 →$K^-\pi^+$, in the transverse momentum interval $2< p_{\textrm{T}} < 12$ GeV/c. The result indicates a positive v 2 for non-prompt D 0 mesons with a significance of 2.7σ. The non-prompt D 0 -meson v 2 is lower than that of prompt non-strange D mesons with 3.2σ significance in $2< p_\textrm{T} < 8~\textrm{GeV}/c$, and compatible with the v 2 of beauty-decay electrons. Theoretical calculations of beauty-quark transport in a hydrodynamically expanding medium describe the measurement within uncertainties.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Generation of lognormal synthetic Lyman-α forest spectra for P 1 D analysis

The one-dimensional flux power spectrum (P 1 D ) of the Lyman-α forest probes small-scale structure in the intergalactic medium (IGM) and is therefore sensitive to a variety of cosmological and astrophysical parameters. These include the amplitude and shape of the matter power spectrum, the thermal history of the IGM, the sum of neutrino masses, and potential small-scale fluctuations due to the nature of dark matter. However, P 1 D is also highly sensitive to observational and instrumental systematics, making accurate synthetic spectra essential for validating analyses and quantifying these effects, especially in high-volume surveys like the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). We present an efficient lognormal mock framework for generating one-dimensional Lyman-α forest spectra tailored for P 1 D analysis. Our method captures the redshift evolution of the mean transmitted flux and the scale-dependent shape and amplitude of the one-dimensional flux power spectrum by tuning Gaussian field correlations and transformation parameters. Across the DESI Early Data Release (EDR) redshift range (2.0 ≤ z ≤ 3.8), and a wide range of scales (10 -4 s km -1 ≤ k ≤ 1.0 s km -1 ), our mocks recover the mean flux evolution with redshift to sub-percent accuracy, and the P 1 D at the percent level. Additionally, we discuss potential extensions of this framework, such as the incorporation of astrophysical contaminants, continuum uncertainties, and instrumental effects. Such improvements would expand its utility in ongoing and upcoming surveys and enable a broader range of validation efforts and systematics studies for P 1 D inference and precision cosmology.

Lyman alpha forest↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting System Response at Unmeasured Locations

Traditional techniques to derive dynamic specification for components have a great deal of uncertainty. One of the major sources of uncertainty is that the number of response measurements in the operational system environment is insufficient to determine the component motion. This inadequacy is due to logistical limitations for data recording in field testing and space limitations for accelerometers, strain gages and associated wiring. Available measurements are often some distance from the component and therefore do not represent component motion. Typical straight-line envelopes of these unrepresentative measurements guarantee an increase in the uncertainty. In this paper multiple methods are attempted to expand a sparse set of field test measurements on a system to responses of interest that cannot be measured in the field due to the limitations. Proof of concept is demonstrated on the Modal Analysis Test Vehicle (MATV). The responses of interest, known as “truth responses”, are measured in a system vibration environment along with an optimized sparse set of 30 field responses. Methods to expand the field responses to the truth responses are demonstrated by comparing the acceleration spectral density of the expanded response to the measured response. Two methods utilize a validated finite element model of the MATV. One is developed from purely experiment based frequency response functions of a laboratory pre-test. Finally, these approaches are designed to drastically reduce the uncertainty of the component in-service motion as a basis for developing specifications that are guaranteed to be conservative with a known (instead of unknown) conservatism.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Proceedings for the Workshop on Applied Nuclear Data Activities 2024

The Workshop for Applied Nuclear Data Activities (WANDA) is designed to increase communication among nuclear data (ND) users in multidisciplinary federal programs, ND producers, ND funders, and other ND experts. It also presents an opportunity to cross-pollinate ideas as well as introduce ND gaps identified by federal programs to ND experts and ND capabilities to the various federal ND users. WANDA 2024 included five technical sessions, three of which focused on Fusion Energy Sciences (FES)—FES Fusion Neutronics, FES Tritium Production, and FES Material Damage—and two stand-alone sessions—Isotopes and Targetry for Nuclear Data and Uncertainty Quantification. The FES sessions successfully brought new voices to the WANDA discussions, expanding the application space in which nuclear data are critical. FES programs need accurate nuclear data with realistic uncertainty quantification to properly estimate, for example, shielding, activation, tritium production, helium production, structural material integrity, and superconducting magnet operation. This includes a variety of projectile (neutrons, photons, charged particles) and target atoms. One of the action items common to all the FES sessions was a need to perform sensitivity studies to identify the prioritization of nuclear data needs. The Isotopes and Targetry session highlighted the many capabilities available to produce high-quality targets for nuclear data measurements, including 3D printing with spherical powders, combustion synthesis coupled with spin coating & electrospraying, inkjet printing, and isotopic doping. These new methods open doors for more accurate measurement, but it was also stressed that sample characterization following any method of fabrication is of the highest importance to accurately interpret nuclear data measurement results that used that sample. The Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) session was broken into two categories: nuclear data uncertainty quantification and the use of that uncertainty quantification. Thematic to the UQ session was the loss of information when going from nuclear data measurement, to evaluation, to evaluated file, and finally to neutron transport calculations. Current evaluated ND libraries typically only contain covariances, which assume that the probability distributions are Gaussian. Beyond being a simplified assumption for many evaluations, this can lead to negative values on many observables when attempting to sample the covariance. The covariance format, however, is very efficient in that a simple set of linear equations can transform uncertainty from parameters or cross sections to the application of interest. Focused collaboration is needed between nuclear data evaluators and nuclear data users to ensure that needs are being met.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Learning Hidden Structure in Multi-Fidelity Information Sources for Efficient Uncertainty Quantification (LDRD 218317)

This report summarizes the work done under the Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project entitled "Learning Hidden Structure in Multi-Fidelity Information Sources for Efficient Uncertainty Quantification". In this project we investigated multi-fidelity strategies for fusing data from information sources of varying cost and accuracy. Most existing strategies exploit hierarchical relationships between models, for example that occur when different models are generated by refining a numerical discretization parameter. In this work we focused on encoding the relationships between information sources using directed acyclic graphs. The multi-fidelity networks can have general structure and represent a significantly greater variety of modeling relationships than recursive networks used in the current state literature. Numerical results show that a non-hierarchical multi-fidelity Monte Carlo strategy can reduce the cost of estimating uncertainty in predictions of a model of plasma expanding in a vacuum by almost two orders of magnitude.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗