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A review and a critical evaluation of a representative class of state-of-the-art models for ultrahigh reliability prediction is presented. This evaluation naturally leads to a new model for ultrahigh reliability prediction now under development. The new model combines the flexibility and accuracy of simulation with the speed of analytic models.
We started from ISS fault trees example to migrate to decision trees, presented a method to convert fault trees to decision trees. The method shows that the visualizations of root cause of fault are easier and the tree manipulating becomes more programmatic via available decision tree programs. The visualization of decision trees for the diagnostic shows a format of straight forward and easy understands. For ISS real time fault diagnostic, the status of the systems could be shown by mining the signals through the trees and see where it stops at. The other advantage to use decision trees is that the trees can learn the fault patterns and predict the future fault from the historic data. The learning is not only on the static data sets but also can be online, through accumulating the real time data sets, the decision trees can gain and store faults patterns in the trees and recognize them when they come.
Systems health management (SHM) is an important set of technologies aimed at increasing system safety and reliability by detecting, isolating, and identifying faults; and predicting when the system reaches end of life (EOL), so that appropriate fault mitigation and recovery actions can be taken. Model-based SHM approaches typically make use of global, monolithic system models for online analysis, which results in a loss of scalability and efficiency for large-scale systems. Improvement in scalability and efficiency can be achieved by decomposing the system model into smaller local submodels and operating on these submodels instead. In this paper, the global system model is analyzed offline and structurally decomposed into local submodels. We define a common model decomposition framework for extracting submodels from the global model. This framework is then used to develop algorithms for solving model decomposition problems for the design of three separate SHM technologies, namely, estimation (which is useful for fault detection and identification), fault isolation, and EOL prediction. We solve these model decomposition problems using a three-tank system as a case study.
Computational models provide essential quantitative tools for assessing and predicting the health and performance of physical systems. However, high-fidelity models are rarely used in real-time operations or large optimization loops, due to their time-intensive nature. A common approach to improving computational efficiency of prognosis is to employ surrogate models. Such models can significantly decrease computation time for some accuracy loss. In this context, use of Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) is proposed to generate surrogate models for lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery discharge. DMD has been suggested and used successfully in the area of fluid dynamics for over a decade, but it has not been applied to the PHM domain, where far-ahead prediction of nonlinear behavior is crucial to propagate faults or predict Remaining Useful Life (RUL). For Li-ion battery health management, the standard application of DMD using only the observable quantities of interest was unable to capture the nonlinear discharge of batteries exhibited in lab testing. The Koopman theory, however, provides a mechanism to tradeoff low dimensional nonlinear models with high-dimensional linear ones in a DMD framework, by augmenting nonlinear state variables into the system representation. In this way, DMD allows for configurable simulation accuracy dependent on the dimensionality of the Koopman operator. For battery health management, we augmented the observable variables with the hidden states of a higher-fidelity physics model to build the DMD surrogate. In comparison to a high-fidelity model, the surrogate improved computational efficiency with only a minimal loss of accuracy, and enabled long-term prognostics horizons. A generalized method for this was implemented in the prog models python package.
Over the past several years, we have been developing methods of predicting the fault content of software systems based on measured characteristics of their structural evolution.
Geophysical models of flexural stresses in an elastic lithosphere due to an axisymmetric surface load typically predict a transition with increased distance from the center of the load of radial thrust faults to strike-slip faults to concentric normal faults. These model predictions are in conflict with the absence of annular zones of strike-slip faults around prominent loads such as lunar maria, Martian volcanoes, and the Martian Tharsis rise. We suggest that this paradox arises from difficulties in relating failure criteria for brittle rocks to the stress models. Indications that model stresses are inappropriate for use in fault-type prediction include (1) tensile principal stresses larger than realistic values of rock tensile strength, and/or (2) stress differences significantly larger than those allowed by rock-strength criteria. Predictions of surface faulting that are consistent with observations can be obtained instead by using tensile and shear failure criteria, along with calculated stress differences and trajectories, with model stress states not greatly in excess of the maximum allowed by rock fracture criteria.
The modeling and design of a fault-tolerant multiprocessor system is addressed. In particular, the behavior of the system during recovery and restoration after a fault has occurred is investigated. Given that a multicomputer system is designed using the Algorithm to Architecture to Mapping Model (ATAMM), and that a fault (death of a computing resource) occurs during its normal steady-state operation, a model is presented as a viable research tool for predicting the performance bounds of the system during its recovery and restoration phases. Furthermore, the bounds of the performance behavior of the system during this transient mode can be assessed. These bounds include: time to recover from the fault (t(sub rec)), time to restore the system (t(sub rec)) and whether there is a permanent delay in the system's Time Between Input and Output (TBIO) after the system has reached a steady state. An implementation of an ATAMM based computer was developed with the Generic VHSIC Spaceborne Computer (GVSC) as the target system. A simulation of the GVSC was also written based on the code used in ATAMM Multicomputer Operating System (AMOS). The simulation is in turn used to validate the new model in the usefulness and accuracy in tracking the propagation of the delay through the system and predicting the behavior in the transient state of recovery and restoration. The model is validated as an accurate method to predict the transient behavior of an ATAMM based multicomputer during recovery and restoration.
Reasoning about physical systems in operation is a difficult task, and any attempt to automate the process must overcome the problems of modeling normal behavior, diagnosing faults, and predicting future behavior. This paper describes a prototypical case-based reasoner (CBR) that operates in the domain of in-flight fault diagnosis and prognosis of aviation subsystems, particularly jet engines. The reasoner operates on the observation that the ability of a CBR program to reason about physical systems can be significantly enhanced by the addition to the CBR program of a model of the physical system to describe the system's structural, functional, and causal behavior.
This paper focuses on the application of expert systems technology to the automatic detection, verification and correction of anomalous rocket engine operations through interfacing with an intelligent adaptive control system. The design of a reliable and intelligent propulsion control and monitoring system is outlined which includes the architecture of an Integrated Expert System (IES) serving as the core component. The IES functions include automatic knowledge acquisition, integrated knowledge base, and fault diagnosis and prediction methodology. The results of fault analysis and diagnostic techniques are presented for an example fault in the SSME main combustion chamber injectors.
More than 50 unequivocal peak-ring craters and multiringed impact basins have been identified on Venus from Earth-based Arecibo, Venera 15/16, and Magellan radar images. These ringed craters are relatively pristine, and so serve as an important new dataset that will further understanding of the structural and rheological properties of the venusian surface and of impact mechanics in general. They are also the most direct analogues for craters formed on the Earth in Phanerozoic time. Finite-element simulations of basin collapse and ring formation were undertaken in collaboration with V. J. Hillgren (University of Arizona). These calculations used an axisymmetric version of the viscoelastic finite element code TECTON, modeled structures on the scale of Klenova or Meitner, and demonstrated two major points. First, viscous flow and ring formation are possible on the timescale of crater collapse for the sizes of multiringed basins seen on Venus and heat flows appropriate to the plant. Second, an elastic lithosphere overlying a Newtonian viscous asthenosphere results mainly in uplift beneath the crater. Inward asthenospheric flow mainly occurs at deeper levels. Lithospheric response is dominantly vertical and flexural. Tensional stress maxima occur and ring formation by normal faulting is predicted in some cases, but these predicted rings occur too far out to explain observed ring spacings on Venus (or on the Moon). Overall, these estimates and models suggest that multiringed basin formation is indeed possible at the scales observed on Venus. Furthermore, due to the strong inverse dependence of solid-state viscosity on stress, the absence of Cordilleran-style ring faulting in craters smaller than Meitner or Klenova makes sense. The apparent increase in viscosity of shock-fluidized rock with crater diameter, greater interior temperatures accessed by larger, deeper craters, and decreased non-Newtonian viscosity associated with larger craters may conspire to make the transition with diameter from peak-ring crater to Orientale-type multiringed basin rather abrupt.
The modeling and design of a fault-tolerant multiprocessor system is addressed. Of interest is the behavior of the system during recovery and restoration after a fault has occurred. The multiprocessor systems are based on the Algorithm to Architecture Mapping Model (ATAMM) and the fault considered is the death of a processor. The developed model is useful in the determination of performance bounds of the system during recovery and restoration. The performance bounds include time to recover from the fault, time to restore the system, and determination of any permanent delay in the input to output latency after the system has regained steady state. Implementation of an ATAMM based computer was developed for a four-processor generic VHSIC spaceborne computer (GVSC) as the target system. A simulation of the GVSC was also written on the code used in the ATAMM Multicomputer Operating System (AMOS). The simulation is used to verify the new model for tracking the propagation of the delay through the system and predicting the behavior of the transient state of recovery and restoration. The model is shown to accurately predict the transient behavior of an ATAMM based multicomputer during recovery and restoration.
The primary objective of the STS-99 mission was to complete high resolution mapping of large sections of the Earth's surface using the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), a specially modified radar system. This radar system produced unrivaled 3-D images of the Earth's Surface. This videotape shows a science press briefing. The panel members are Michael Kobrick, the SRTM Project Scientist at JPL; Thomas Henning, SRTM Program Manager at the National Imagery and Mapping Agency; Diane Evans, the Director of the Earth Sciences Program at NASA; and Marian Werner, XSAR Project Manager for the DLR, Deutschen Zentrum fur Luft- und Raumfahrt, Germany's National Aerospace Research Center. Michael Kobrick explained the mechanics of interferometric measurements of the Earth. He explained and demonstrated with a scale model the deployable mast's use. He also explained the importance of the attitude and orbit determination avionics. A brief animated video showing how four beams would give a 225 km wide swath of the Earth topography was viewed. Thomas Henning discussed some of the usage of the digital terrain elevation data for flood relief planning, cell phone station placement, military planning for command and control centers, and flight simulation. He explained that public access to the most precise data would be limited. Diane Evans described data usage in flood prediction, earthquake fault identification and archeology. Marian Werner described the German and Italian input to the project. The questions from the press concerned the time to process this data, and the reasons for the limited access to the more precise data.
This paper presents a dynamic technique for statistically estimating three program characteristics that affect a program's computational behavior: (1) the probability that a particular section of a program is executed, (2) the probability that the particular section affects the data state, and (3) the probability that a data state produced by that section has an effect on program output. These three characteristics can be used to predict whether faults are likely to be uncovered by software testing. Index Terms: Software testing, data state, fault, failure, testability. 1 Introduction
For electric vehicles, technology for monitoring, diagnosis, and prognosis of the electrical power system (EPS) becomes essential for safe and efficient operation. To this end, we develop a general system-level integrated diagnosis and prognosis framework, which detects, isolates, and identifies EPS faults, and predicts when the EPS will fail to deliver sufficient power. The approach takes advantage of recent work in structural model decomposition in order to distribute the global diagnosis and prognosis problems into local subproblems that can be solved in parallel, thus enabling implementation on distributed computational platforms. The framework is applied to the EPS of a planetary rover testbed, and is demonstrated using data from field experiments.
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This paper addresses the problem of building trust in the online prediction of a battery powered aircraft's remaining flying time. A series of flight tests is described that make use of a small electric powered unmanned aerial vehicle (eUAV) to verify the performance of the remaining flying time prediction algorithm. The estimate of remaining flying time is used to activate an alarm when the predicted remaining time is two minutes. This notifies the pilot to transition to the landing phase of the flight. A second alarm is activated when the battery charge falls below a specified limit threshold. This threshold is the point at which the battery energy reserve would no longer safely support two repeated aborted landing attempts. During the test series, the motor system is operated with the same predefined timed airspeed profile for each test. To test the robustness of the prediction, half of the tests were performed with, and half were performed without, a simulated powertrain fault. The pilot remotely engages a resistor bank at a specified time during the test flight to simulate a partial powertrain fault. The flying time prediction system is agnostic of the pilot's activation of the fault and must adapt to the vehicle's state. The time at which the limit threshold on battery charge is reached is then used to measure the accuracy of the remaining flying time predictions. Accuracy requirements for the alarms are considered and the results discussed.
Context: Software developers spend a significant amount of time fixing faults. However, not many papers have addressed the actual effort needed to fix software faults. Objective: The objective of this paper is twofold: (1) analysis of the effort needed to fix software faults and how it was affected by several factors and (2) prediction of the level of fix implementation effort based on the information provided in software change requests. Method: The work is based on data related to 1200 failures, extracted from the change tracking system of a large NASA mission. The analysis includes descriptive and inferential statistics. Predictions are made using three supervised machine learning algorithms and three sampling techniques aimed at addressing the imbalanced data problem. Results: Our results show that (1) 83% of the total fix implementation effort was associated with only 20% of failures. (2) Both safety critical failures and post-release failures required three times more effort to fix compared to non-critical and pre-release counterparts, respectively. (3) Failures with fixes spread across multiple components or across multiple types of software artifacts required more effort. The spread across artifacts was more costly than spread across components. (4) Surprisingly, some types of faults associated with later life-cycle activities did not require significant effort. (5) The level of fix implementation effort was predicted with 73% overall accuracy using the original, imbalanced data. Using oversampling techniques improved the overall accuracy up to 77%. More importantly, oversampling significantly improved the prediction of the high level effort, from 31% to around 85%. Conclusions: This paper shows the importance of tying software failures to changes made to fix all associated faults, in one or more software components and/or in one or more software artifacts, and the benefit of studying how the spread of faults and other factors affect the fix implementation effort.
SPOT stereoscopic and TM multispectral images support evidence in AVHRR thermal-IR images of a major unmapped shear zone in Phanerozoic cover rocks southeast of the ancient Najd Fault System in the Arabian Shield. This shear zone and faults of the Najd share a common alignment, orientation, and sinistral sense of movement. These similarities suggest a 200-km extension of the Najd Fault System and reactivation since it formed in the late Precambrian. Topographic and lithologic features in the TM and SPOT data along one of three faults inferred from the AVHRR data indicate sinistral offsets up to 2.5 km, en echelon folds and secondary faults like those predicted by models of left-lateral strike-slip faulting. The age of the affected outcrops indicates reactivation of Najd faults in the Cretaceous, judging from TM and SPOT data or in the Tertiary, based on AVHRR data. The total length of the system visible at the surface measures 1300 km. If the Najd Fault System is extrapolated beneath sands of the Empty Quarter to faults of a similar trend in South Yemen, the shear zone would span the Arabian Plate. Furthermore, if extensions into the Arabian Sea bed and into Egypt proposed by others are considered, it would exceed 3000 km.