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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2007

Prediction of Geomagnetic Activity and Key Parameters in High-Latitude Ionosphere-Basic Elements

Prediction of geomagnetic activity and related events in the Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere is an important task of the Space Weather program. Prediction reliability is dependent on the prediction method and elements included in the prediction scheme. Two main elements are a suitable geomagnetic activity index and coupling function -- the combination of solar wind parameters providing the best correlation between upstream solar wind data and geomagnetic activity. The appropriate choice of these two elements is imperative for any reliable prediction model. The purpose of this work was to elaborate on these two elements -- the appropriate geomagnetic activity index and the coupling function -- and investigate the opportunity to improve the reliability of the prediction of geomagnetic activity and other events in the Earth's magnetosphere. The new polar magnetic index of geomagnetic activity and the new version of the coupling function lead to a significant increase in the reliability of predicting the geomagnetic activity and some key parameters, such as cross-polar cap voltage and total Joule heating in high-latitude ionosphere, which play a very important role in the development of geomagnetic and other activity in the Earth s magnetosphere, and are widely used as key input parameters in modeling magnetospheric, ionospheric, and thermospheric processes.

Lyatsky, W.↗
NASA NTRS2021

A Comparison of the CIR- and CME-Induced Geomagnetic Activity Effects on Mesosphere and Lower Thermospheric Temperature

Neutral temperature responses in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) to severe geomagnetic storms induced by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are of growing interest to the space science research community. Recently, it was found that geomagnetic activities produced by the corotating interaction regions (CIRs) caused comparable effects on the Earth's upper atmosphere. In this work, we carried out a comparative study of the temperature responses in the MLT region to these two types of geomagnetic activities, using the temperature measured by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instruments onboard the Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite. Our results demonstrate that CIR-induced geomagnetic activity produced temperature variations in the MLT region and that this effect can penetrate downward to ∼100 km at high latitudes in both hemispheres. Temperature enhancements penetrated deeper during CME-induced geomagnetic activities, but the heating effects lasted longer during CIR-induced geomagnetic activities. There is a hemispherical asymmetry in the geomagnetical activity induced temperature changes in the MLT region. The temperature enhancements are stronger in the southern hemisphere than in the northern hemisphere during CME events.

geomagnetic activity↗
NASA NTRS2004

On the Possibilities of Predicting Geomagnetic Secular Variation with Geodynamo Modeling

We use our MoSST core dynamics model and geomagnetic field at the core-mantle boundary (CMB) continued downward from surface observations to investigate possibilities of geomagnetic data assimilation, so that model results and current geomagnetic observations can be used to predict geomagnetic secular variation in future. As the first attempt, we apply data insertion technique to examine evolution of the model solution that is modified by geomagnetic input. Our study demonstrate that, with a single data insertion, large-scale poloidal magnetic field obtained from subsequent numerical simulation evolves similarly to the observed geomagnetic variation, regardless of the initial choice of the model solution (so long it is a well developed numerical solution). The model solution diverges on the time scales on the order of 60 years, similar to the time scales of the torsional oscillations in the Earth's core. Our numerical test shows that geomagnetic data assimilation is promising with our MoSST model.

Kuang, Wei-Jia↗
NASA NTRS2019

Long and Short Term Geomagnetic Prediction (Chapter 19)

Prediction of geomagnetic variability depends on the accuracy of geomagnetic field modeling, dynamical modeling of source regions that contribute to geomagnetic signals, and advanced assimilation algorithms that combine effectively the results of geomagnetic field and dynamic models to make accurate estimates of the dynamic states of the sources and, therefore, accurate forecast of geomagnetic variations. In this chapter we provide an overview of recent research efforts in these three research areas, focusing primarily on geomagnetic variations from the dynamic outer core and from solar and lunar tidal effects, but also including a review of relevant research results and developments. Prediction of weak but periodic tidal phenomena, and of strong but chaotic secular variation (SV) showcases two very important new developments which will lead to new opportunities in geomagnetic research and application.

Weijia Kuang↗
NASA NTRS2012

Did Geomagnetic Activity Challenge Electric Power Reliability During Solar Cycle 23? Evidence from the PJM Regional Transmission Organization in North America

During solar cycle 22, a very intense geomagnetic storm on 13 March 1989 contributed to the collapse of the Hydro-Quebec power system in Canada. This event clearly demonstrated that geomagnetic storms have the potential to lead to blackouts. This paper addresses whether geomagnetic activity challenged power system reliability during solar cycle 23. Operations by PJM Interconnection, LLC (hereafter PJM), a regional transmission organization in North America, are examined over the period 1 April 2002 through 30 April 2004. During this time PJM coordinated the movement of wholesale electricity in all or parts of Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia in the United States. We examine the relationship between a proxy of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) and a metric of challenged reliability. In this study, GICs are proxied using magnetometer data from a geomagnetic observatory located just outside the PJM control area. The metric of challenged reliability is the incidence of out-of-economic-merit order dispatching due to adverse reactive power conditions. The statistical methods employed make it possible to disentangle the effects of GICs on power system operations from purely terrestrial factors. The results of the analysis indicate that geomagnetic activity can significantly increase the likelihood that the system operator will dispatch generating units based on system stability considerations rather than economic merit.

storms↗
NASA NTRS2008

A New Polar Magnetic Index of Geomagnetic Activity and its Application to Monitoring Ionospheric Parameters

For improving the reliability of Space Weather prediction, we developed a new, Polar Magnetic (PM) index of geomagnetic activity, which shows high correlation with both upstream solar wind data and related events in the magnetosphere and ionosphere. Similarly to the existing polar cap PC index, the new, PM index was computed from data from two near-pole geomagnetic observatories; however, the method for computing the PM index is different. The high correlation of the PM index with both solar wind data and events in Geospace environment makes possible to improve significantly forecasting geomagnetic disturbances and such important parameters as the cross-polar-cap voltage and global Joule heating in high latitude ionosphere, which play an important role in the development of geomagnetic, ionospheric and thermospheric disturbances. We tested the PM index for 10-year period (1995-2004). The correlation between PM index and upstream solar wind data for these years is very high (the average correlation coefficient R approximately equal to 0.86). The PM index also shows the high correlation with the cross-polar-cap voltage and hemispheric Joule heating (the correlation coefficient between the actual and predicted values of these parameters is approximately 0.9), which results in significant increasing the prediction reliability of these parameters. Using the PM index of geomagnetic activity provides a significant increase in the forecasting reliability of geomagnetic disturbances and related events in Geospace environment. The PM index may be also used as an important input parameter in modeling ionospheric, magnetospheric, and thermospheric processes.

Lyatsky, Wladislaw↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Challenge Posed by Geomagnetic Activity to Electric Power Reliability: Evidence from England and Wales

This paper addresses whether geomagnetic activity challenged the reliability of the electric power system during part of the declining phase of solar cycle 23. Operations by National Grid in England and Wales are examined over the period of 11 March 2003 through 31 March 2005. This paper examines the relationship between measures of geomagnetic activity and a metric of challenged electric power reliability known as the net imbalance volume (NIV). Measured in megawatt hours, NIV represents the sum of all energy deployments initiated by the system operator to balance the electric power system. The relationship between geomagnetic activity and NIV is assessed using a multivariate econometric model. The model was estimated using half-hour settlement data over the period of 11 March 2003 through 31 December 2004. The results indicate that geomagnetic activity had a demonstrable effect on NIV over the sample period. Based on the parameter estimates, out-of-sample predictions of NIV were generated for each half hour over the period of 1 January to 31 March 2005. Consistent with the existence of a causal relationship between geomagnetic activity and the electricity market imbalance, the root-mean-square error of the out-of-sample predictions of NIV is smaller; that is, the predictions are more accurate, when the statistically significant estimated effects of geomagnetic activity are included as drivers in the predictions.

Forbes, Kevin F.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Geomagnetically Induced Currents at Middle Latitudes: 1. Quiet-Time Variability

Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) at middle latitudes have received increased attention after reported power grid disruptions due to geomagnetic disturbances. However, quantifying the risk to the electric power grid at middle latitudes is difficult without understanding how the GIC sensors respond to geomagnetic activity on a daily basis. Therefore, in this study the question “Do measured GICs have distinguishable and quantifiable long-period and short-period characteristics?” is addressed. The study focuses on the long-term variability of measured GIC, and establishes the extent to which the variability relates to quiet-time geomagnetic activity. GIC quiet-day curves (QDCs) are computed from measured data for each GIC node, covering all four seasons, and then compared with the seasonal variability of thermosphere-ionosphere-electrodynamics general circulation model (TIE- GCM)-simulated neutral wind and height-integrated current density. The results show strong evidence that the middle-latitude nodes routinely respond to the tidal-driven Sq variation, with a local time and seasonal dependence on the direction of the ionospheric currents, which is specific to each node. The strong dependence of GICs on the Sq currents demonstrates that the GIC QDCs may be employed as a robust baseline from which to quantify the significance of GICs during geomagnetically active times and to isolate those variations to study independently. The QDC-based significance score computed in this study provides power utilities with a node-specific measure of the geomagnetic significance of a given GIC observation. Finally, this study shows that the power grid acts as a giant sensor that may detect ionospheric current systems.

Adam C Kellerman↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Prediction of Geomagnetic Storms and the K p index

Geomagnetic activity is often described using summary indices to summarize the likelihood of space weather impacts, as well as when parameterizing space weather models. The geomagnetic index K p in particular, is widely used for these purposes. Current state-of-the-art forecast models provide deterministic K p predictions using a variety of methods – including empirically-derived functions, physics-based models, and neural networks – but do not provide uncertainty estimates associated with the forecast. This paper provides a sample methodology to generate a 3-hour-ahead K p prediction with uncertainty bounds and from this provide a probabilistic geomagnetic storm forecast. Specifically, we have used a two-layered architecture to separately predict storm (K p ≥ 5 – ) and non-storm cases. As solar wind-driven models are limited in their ability to predict the onset of transient-driven activity we also introduce a model variant using solar X-ray flux to assess whether simple models including proxies for solar activity can improve the predictions of geomagnetic storm activity with lead times longer than the L1-to-Earth propagation time. By comparing the performance of these models we show that including operationally-available information about solar irradiance enhances the ability of predictive models to capture the onset of geomagnetic storms and that this can be achieved while also enabling probabilistic forecasts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1976

The causes of recurrent geomagnetic storms

The causes of recurrent geomagnetic activity were studied by analyzing interplanetary magnetic field and plasma data from earth-orbiting spacecraft in the interval from November 1973 to February 1974. This interval included the start of two long sequences of geomagnetic activity and two corresponding corotating interplanetary streams. In general, the geomagnetic activity was related to an electric field which was due to two factors: (1) the ordered, mesoscale pattern of the stream itself, and (2) random, smaller-scale fluctuations in the southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field Bz. The geomagnetic activity in each recurrent sequence consisted of two successive stages. The first stage was usually the most intense, and it occurred during the passage of the interaction region at the front of a stream. These large amplitudes of Bz were primarily produced in the interplanetary medium by compression of ambient fluctuations as the stream steepened in transit to 1 A.U. The second stage of geomagnetic activity immediately following the first was associated with the highest speeds in the stream.

Burlaga, L. F.↗
NASA NTRS1979

A search for the interplanetary quantity controlling the development of geomagnetic storms

An historical account is presented concerning the evolution of our present concept of geomagnetic storms. The present concept was formulated by Chapman (1927) in his magnetic data statistical studies of 'the initial rise' (now termed the initial phase) 'and subsequent larger decrease' (now termed the main phase) in H, followed by 'slow recovery'. The concept introduced by Alfven in 1940 of guiding center motions of a charged particle in a nonuniform magnetic field (ring currents) is also discussed. By 1963 it became quite certain that the ring current, namely a storm-time Van Allen belt, is formed in the magnetosphere during the storm's main phase. The search then began for the solar wind quantity controlling the development of the main phase. The author then gives a personal account of how our concept of geomagnetic storms has advanced and how new findings based on satellite and ground-based observations have made it possible to arrive at a first-approximation expression for the interplanetary quantity controlling the development of geomagnetic storms. Since a geomagnetic storm is a magnetic manifestation of a magnetospheric storm, which is a nonlinear superposition of intense magnetospheric substorms, the main emphasis is shifted toward the understanding of magnetospheric substorms in order to arrive at the parameters controlling the development of geomagnetic storms.

Akasofu, S.-I.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Geomagnetic Disturbances Caused by Internal Atmospheric Dynamics

It is commonly believed that geomagnetic disturbances are caused by external influences connected with the solar wind. The 27-day recurrence of perturbations seems to be a strong hint for this interaction. But frequently geomagnetic disturbances occur without any relation to sunspot numbers or radiowave fluxes. This was one of the reasons for introducing hypothetical M-regions on the Sun and their relation to solar wind activities. Only one half of the variance of the geomagnetic AL-index could be related to the solar wind. Therefore it is concluded that internal processes of the magnetosphere were responsible for additional geomagnetic activity. Arguments, which might lead to the suggestion of geomagnetic disturbances as being caused by internal atmospheric dynamics are discussed and a rather preliminary scenario of those processes is proposed.

Sonneman, G.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Diurnal variations of cosmic ray geomagnetic cut-off threshold rigidities

The spectrographic global survey method was used to investigate the rigidity variations Rc of geomagnetic cut-off as a function of local time and the level of geomagnetic disturbance for a number of stations of the world wide network. It is shown that geomagnetic cut-off threshold rigidities undergo diurnal variations. The diurnal wave amplitude decreases with increasing threshold rigidity Rc, and the wave maximum occurs at 2 to 4 hr LT. The amplitude of diurnal variations increases with increasing geomagnetic activity. The results agree with those from trajectory calculations made for an asymmetric model of the magnetosphere during different geomagnetic disturbance conditions.

Dvornikov, V. M.↗
NASA NTRS1985

On the geomagnetic jerk of 1969

Courtillot et al. (1978) have first reported a sudden change in the slope of the first time derivatives of the geomagnetic field components which occurred around 1970. It was found that the change took place in a large part of the northern hemisphere. Malin and Hodder (1982) reported on studies which were conducted to determine whether this 1970 step change in the second time derivative of the geomagnetic field components, which they termed a geomagnetic 'jerk', was of internal or external origin. It was concluded that internal sources can give rise to changes in secular variation on time scales as short as one or two years and that these were the major factor in the geomagnetic jerk which occurred around 1970. The present paper provides new supporting evidence for the existence of a worldwide geomagnetic jerk, its (average) time of occurrence, and its internal nature. New estimates are given of the spherical harmonic coefficients of the jerk and of the pre-1969 and post-1969 secular acceleration.

Mcleod, M. G.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Geomagnetic activity associated with earth passage of interplanetary shock disturbances and coronal mass ejections

Coronal mass ejection events (CMEs) are important occasional sources of plasma and magnetic field in the solar wind at 1 AU, accounting for approximately 10 percent of all solar wind measurements in the ecliptic plane during the last solar activity maximum. Using a recently appreciated capability for distinguishing CMEs in solar wind data in the form of counterstreaming solar wind electron events, this paper explores the overall effectiveness of shock wave disturbances and CMFs in general in stimulating geomagnetic activity. The study is confined to the interval from mid-August 1978 through mid-October 1982, spanning the last solar activity maximum, when ISEE 3 was in orbit about the L1 Lagrange point 220 Re upstream from earth. It is found that all but one of the 37 largest geomagnetic storms in that era were associated with earth passage of CMEs and/or shock disturbances, with the large majority of these storms (27 out of 37) being associated with interplanetary events where earth encountered both a shock and the CME driving the shock (shock/CME events). Although CMEs and/or shock disturbances were increasingly the cause of geomagnetic activity as the level of geomagnetic activity increased, many smaller geomagnetic disturbances were unrelated to these events.

Gosling, J. T.↗
NASA NTRS1993

The national geomagnetic initiative

The Earth's magnetic field, through its variability over a spectrum of spatial and temporal scales, contains fundamental information on the solid Earth and geospace environment (the latter comprising the atmosphere, ionosphere, and magnetosphere). Integrated studies of the geomagnetic field have the potential to address a wide range of important processes in the deep mantle and core, asthenosphere, lithosphere, oceans, and the solar-terrestrial environment. These studies have direct applications to important societal problems, including resource assessment and exploration, natural hazard mitigation, safe navigation, and the maintenance and survivability of communications and power systems on the ground and in space. Studies of the Earth's magnetic field are supported by a variety of federal and state agencies as well as by private industry. Both basic and applied research is presently supported by several federal agencies, including the National Science Foundation (NSF), U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) (through the Navy, Air Force, and Defense Mapping Agency). Although each agency has a unique, well-defined mission in geomagnetic studies, many areas of interest overlap. For example, NASA, the Navy, and USGS collaborate closely in the development of main field reference models. NASA, NSF, and the Air Force collaborate in space physics. These interagency linkages need to be strengthened. Over the past decade, new opportunities for fundamental advances in geomagnetic research have emerged as a result of three factors: well-posed, first-order scientific questions; increased interrelation of research activities dealing with geomagnetic phenomena; and recent developments in technology. These new opportunities can be exploited through a national geomagnetic initiative to define objectives and encourage coordination of efforts among federal and state agencies, academic institutions, and industry to systematically characterize the spatial and temporal behavior of the Earth's magnetic field on local, regional, and global scales in order to understand the physical processes in the solid earth and geospace environment, and to apply this understanding to a variety of scientific problems and to technical and societal needs.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1996

Accurate Predictions of Mean Geomagnetic Dipole Excursion and Reversal Frequencies, Mean Paleomagnetic Field Intensity, and the Radius of Earth's Core Using McLeod's Rule

The geomagnetic spatial power spectrum R(sub n)(r) is the mean square magnetic induction represented by degree n spherical harmonic coefficients of the internal scalar potential averaged over the geocentric sphere of radius r. McLeod's Rule for the magnetic field generated by Earth's core geodynamo says that the expected core surface power spectrum (R(sub nc)(c)) is inversely proportional to (2n + 1) for 1 less than n less than or equal to N(sub E). McLeod's Rule is verified by locating Earth's core with main field models of Magsat data; the estimated core radius of 3485 kn is close to the seismologic value for c of 3480 km. McLeod's Rule and similar forms are then calibrated with the model values of R(sub n) for 3 less than or = n less than or = 12. Extrapolation to the degree 1 dipole predicts the expectation value of Earth's dipole moment to be about 5.89 x 10(exp 22) Am(exp 2)rms (74.5% of the 1980 value) and the expected geomagnetic intensity to be about 35.6 (mu)T rms at Earth's surface. Archeo- and paleomagnetic field intensity data show these and related predictions to be reasonably accurate. The probability distribution chi(exp 2) with 2n+1 degrees of freedom is assigned to (2n + 1)R(sub nc)/(R(sub nc). Extending this to the dipole implies that an exceptionally weak absolute dipole moment (less than or = 20% of the 1980 value) will exist during 2.5% of geologic time. The mean duration for such major geomagnetic dipole power excursions, one quarter of which feature durable axial dipole reversal, is estimated from the modern dipole power time-scale and the statistical model of excursions. The resulting mean excursion duration of 2767 years forces us to predict an average of 9.04 excursions per million years, 2.26 axial dipole reversals per million years, and a mean reversal duration of 5533 years. Paleomagnetic data show these predictions to be quite accurate. McLeod's Rule led to accurate predictions of Earth's core radius, mean paleomagnetic field intensity, and mean geomagnetic dipole power excursion and axial dipole reversal frequencies. We conclude that McLeod's Rule helps unify geo-paleomagnetism, correctly relates theoretically predictable statistical properties of the core geodynamo to magnetic observation, and provides a priori information required for stochastic inversion of paleo-, archeo-, and/or historical geomagnetic measurements.

Voorhies, Coerte V.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact assessment of geomagnetic induced current neutral blocking devices with power electronics sources on distance relay for 230 kV transmission lines

Electrical grids increased the integration of power electronics sources onto transmission lines. In addition, recent reports show a significant rise in geomagnetic storms occurring in 2024. These geomagnetic storms can affect transmission lines by inducing electrical currents within them, potentially causing power outages due to overloaded power transformers. Geomagnetic induced current neutral blocking devices (GIC-NBDs) are capacitors on the ground of wye power transformers, to avoid damage caused by geomagnetic storms. The integration of distance relays and transmission lines with power electronics sources and GIC-NBDs needs to be studied to observe if GIC-NBDs and power electronics sources could adversely affect operation of the electrical grid. In this analysis, the effect of 2 MW power electronics sources and GIC-NBDs on distance relays is assessed for different 230 kV transmission line lengths in radial and nonradial power systems. The simulations measured the apparent impedances, with different electrical faults. Results for a typical 2,650 μF GIC-NBD application were presented on impedance plots, and the distance relay model operations were assessed. In conclusion, the tests for radial and nonradial power systems showed the behavior of the distance elements and source impedance ratios, assessing the effect of power electronics sources and GIC-NBDs on 230 kV transmission lines.

Distance relays↗