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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2

A rapid embodied carbon assessment tool for priority materials

Embodied carbon limits within building materials are a driving factor in global trade, generating new research and analysis tools in industry. These product assessments, which require utilizing life-cycle assessment (LCA) across broad supply chains, can be expensive, time and data-intensive, and subject to significant variations. Existing methods and tools, such as specific environmental product declarations, typically do not capture these variations and dynamics in supply and manufacturing. Moreover, models and tools must enable stakeholders to assess customized supply chains and future scenarios. In this study, we present the Rapid Embodied Carbon Assessment and Target-setting for Emissions-intensive Materials (REDuCE) tool for building materials. We developed a tool that allows users to select production technologies, transportation mode and distances, concrete carbonation, fuel sources, and regional electricity mixes to supply customization for cement and concrete produced and consumed in California. We generated and integrated a material demand model using residential building stock projections. We provide the user with a wide range of mitigation alternatives through low-carbon production pathways, material use efficiency, transportation modes, and projected electricity grid mixes. In a case study application through four mitigation scenarios, we find emission savings up to 80% by maximizing user mitigation alternatives, primarily driven by reductions in material use intensities. This work represents a foundation for expanding LCA and embodied carbon tools to better enable stakeholders to rapidly and accurately assess customized supply chains while meeting trade requirements.

building materials↗

PacWave Anchoring and Mooring Study

PacWave, with its location in some of the most energetic waters in the nation and a buildout to support grid-connected devices, is poised to become a leader in field testing of wave energy converters (WECs) at high technology readiness levels. As part of the device deployment and testing protocols at PacWave, the client is responsible for providing all mooring system components, since there are currently no mooring system components specified for PacWave. NREL and PNNL have been tasked with conducting a preliminary analysis of permanent or temporary mooring systems at the PacWave South site. Previous work for this task included a global trade study of mooring systems used for WECs, and a site characterization of PacWave South. This current report will use the results of the previous studies to inform the design of various mooring systems to be installed at PacWave, which will allow cost analyses to be performed to compare the costs of acquisition of these mooring systems and the costs of mooring systems designed specifically for clients' devices.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Tropical Tree Crop Simulation with a Process-Based, Daily Timestep Simulation Model (ALMANAC): Description of Model Adaptation and Examples with Coffee and Cocoa Simulations

Coffee (Coffea species) and Cocoa (Theobroma cacao) are important cash crops grown in the tropics but traded globally. This study was conducted to apply the ALMANAC model to these crops for the first time, and to test its ability to simulate them under agroforestry management schemes and varying precipitation amounts. To create this simulation, coffee was grown on a site in Kaua’i, Hawai’i, USA, and cocoa was grown on a site in Sefwi Bekwai, Ghana. A stand-in for a tropical overstory tree was created for agroforestry simulations using altered parameters for carob, a common taller tropical tree for these regions. For both crops, ALMANAC was able to realistically simulate yields when compared to the collected total yield data. On Kaua’i, the mean simulated yield was 2% different from the mean measured yield, and in all three years, the simulated values were within 10% of the measured values. For cocoa, the mean simulated yield was 3% different from the mean measured yield and the simulated yield was within 10% of measured yields for all four available years. When precipitation patterns were altered, in Ghana, the wetter site showed lower percent changes in yield than the drier site in Hawai’i. When agroforestry-style management was simulated, a low Leaf Area Index (LAI) of the overstory showed positive or no effect on yields, but when LAI climbed too high, the simulation was able to show the detrimental effect this competition had on crop yields. These simulation results are supported by other literature documenting the effects of agroforestry on tropical crops. This research has applied ALMANAC to new crops and demonstrated its simulation of different management and environmental conditions. The results show promise for ALMANAC’s applicability to these scenarios as well as its potential to be further tested and utilized in new circumstances.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Evaluating and Countering the Insider Threat to the Radioactive Source Supply Chain

The modern supply chain is a global enterprise and little drove this home more than the global COVID-19 pandemic which sent economic shockwaves throughout the world. Many goods became scarce, as products were delayed, in limited supply, or simply not available. The suddenly diminished supply collided with still high demand and led to greatly increased costs. This was particularly true for the radioactive source supply chain. The pandemic introduced extensive delays for construction projects, slowed the transport of radiological materials to facilities, interrupted treatment deliveries, and impaired the mobility of contractors across the industry. All of these concerns not only adversely affected the economy, but also impacted the safety and security of radiological material, potentially raising national security concerns. The vulnerability of the supply chain, a critical element in an increasingly interconnected world, was exposed. One example that challenged the adaptive capacity of the overall supply chain is the Ever Given container ship, which became stuck in the Suez Canal in 2020. This accident immediately shut down shipments that accounted for 12% of global trade, with long-term impacts estimated to be much larger. Developing the ability to anticipate and react in real-time to sudden changes has quickly become a necessity, particularly in industries that deal with the transport of hazardous material. The reaction to these dramatic incidents was to largely focus attention and resources on protecting the supply chain from external threats. However, the threat to the radioactive material supply chain from insiders intimately involved in the process may be even greater and remains a blind spot that requires increased attention. Recent events revealed the blueprint for targeting and disrupting that supply chain, so the potential for a malicious insider—or a manipulated, unwitting insider—to take advantage of this vulnerability is elevated, creating security concerns for radiological industries. This paper examines and analyzes the potential insider threat to the radioactive source supply chain and recommends steps to take to counter this possibility.

Kinney, Justin↗

Science requirements for a global change technology architecture trade study

Science requirements for a global change technology initiative (GCTI) Architecture Trade Study were established by reviewing and synthesizing results from recent studies. A scientific rationale was adopted and used to identify a comprehensive set of measureables and their priorities. Spatial and temporal requirements for a number of measurement parameters were evaluated based on results from several working group studies. Science requirements were defined using these study results in conjunction with the guidelines for investigating global changes over a time scale of decades to centuries. Requirements are given separately for global studies and regional process studies. For global studies, temporal requirements are for sampling every 1 to 12 hours for atmospheric and radiation parameters and 1 day or more for most earth surface measurements. Therefore, the atmospheric measureables provide the most critical drivers for temporal sampling. Spatial sampling requirements vary from 1 km for land and ocean surface characteristics to 50 km for some atmospheric parameters. Thus, the land and ocean surface parameters have the more significant spatial variations and provide the most challenging spatial sampling requirements.

Suttles, John T.↗

Selection of representative instruments for a global change technology architecture trade study

The objectives of Task 2 of the Global Change Technology Initiative (GCTI) Architectural Trade Study were to select representative sets of instruments for making the science measurements specified in Task 1 and to identify instruments that, when flown together, form special complementary packages for measurement purposes. The list of representative instruments and their complementary relationships provide a payload manifest defined in terms of mass, power, size, viewing angles, data rates, etc. which can be used to focus spacecraft trade studies and the definition of a candidate GCTI fleet. Science requirements from Task 1 are given in tabular form. Numerous instruments are described, including visible-infrared radiometers, visible-infrared spectrometers, gas correction radiometers, active systems for Earth observation, Limb viewing instruments, visible-infrared and grating spectrometers, and microwave radiometers.

Hypes, Warren D.↗

Science requirements for a global change technology initiative architecture trade study

Science requirements for a Global Change Technology Initiative (GCTI) Architecture Trade Study were established by reviewing and synthesizing results from recent studies. A scientific rationale was adopted and used to identify a comprehensive set of measurables and their priorities. Spatial and temporal requirements for a number of measurement parameters were evaluated based on results from several working group studies. Science requirements were defined using these study results in conjunction with guidelines for investigating global changes over a time scale of decades to centuries. Requirements are given separately for global studies and regional process studies. For global studies, temporal requirements are for sampling every 1 to 12 hours for atmospheric and radiation parameters and 1 day or more for most Earth surface measurements. Therefore, the atmospheric measurables provide the most critical drivers for temporal sampling. Spatial sampling requirements vary from 1 km for land and ocean surface characteristics to 50 km for some atmospheric parameters. Thus, the land and ocean surface parameters have the more significant spatial variations and provide the most challenging spatial sampling requirements.

Suttles, John T.↗

Satellite orbit considerations for a global change technology architecture trade study

A study was conducted to determine satellite orbits for Earth observation missions aimed at obtaining data for assessing global climate change. A multisatellite system is required to meet the scientific requirements for temporal coverage over the globe. The best system consists of four Sun-synchronous satellites equally spaced in local time of equatorial crossing. This system can obtain data every three hours for all regions. Several other satellite systems consisting of combinations of Sun-synchronous orbits and either the Space Station Freedom or a mid-latitude equatorial satellite can provide three to six hour temporal coverage, which is sufficient for measuring many of the parameters required for the global change monitoring mission. Geosynchronous satellites are required to study atmospheric and surface processes involving variations on the order of a few minutes to an hour. Two or more geosynchronous satellites can be relocated in longitude to study processes over selected regions of Earth.

Harrison, Edwin F.↗

Satellite orbit considerations for a global change technology architecture trade study

A study was conducted to determine satellite orbits for earth observation missions aimed at obtaining data for assessing data global climate change. A multisatellite system is required to meet the scientific requirements for temporal coverage over the globe. The best system consists of four sun-synchronous satellites equally spaced in local time of equatorial crossing. This system can obtain data every three hours for all regions. Several other satellite systems consisting of combinations of sun-synchronous orbits and either the Space Station Freedom or a mid-altitude equatorial satellite can provide three to six hour temporal coverage, which is sufficient for measuring many of the parameters required for the global change monitoring mission. Geosynchronous satellites are required to study atmospheric and surface processes involving variations on the order of a few minutes to an hour. One or two geosynchronous satellites can be relocated in longitude to study processes over selected regions of earth.

Harrison, Edwin F.↗

Global change technology architecture trade study

Described here is an architecture trade study conducted by the Langley Research Center to develop a representative mix of advanced space science instrumentation, spacecraft, and mission orbits to assist in the technology selection processes. The analyses concentrated on the highest priority classes of global change measurements which are the global climate changes. Issues addressed in the tradeoffs includes assessments of the economics of scale of large platforms with multiple instruments relative to smaller spacecraft; the influences of current and possible future launch vehicles on payload sizes, and on-orbit assembly decisions; and the respective roles of low-Earth versus geostationary Earth orbiting systems.

Garrett, L. Bernard↗

Microwave sensing technology issues related to a global change technology architecture trade study

The objectives are to enable the development of lighter and less power consuming, high resolution microwave sensors which will operate at frequencies from 1 to 200 GHz. These systems will use large aperture antenna systems (both reflector and phased arrays) capable of wide scan angle, high polarization purity, and utilize sidelobe suppression techniques as required. Essentially, the success of this technology program will enable high resolution microwave radiometers from geostationary orbit, lightweight and more efficient radar systems from low Earth orbit, and eliminate mechanical scanning methods to the fullest extent possible; a main source of platform instability in large space systems. The Global Change Technology Initiative (GCTI) will develop technology which will enable the use of satellite systems for Earth observations on a global scale.

Campbell, Thomas G.↗

Simulating the Cascading Effects of an Extreme Agricultural Production Shock: Global Implications of a Contemporary US Dust Bowl Event

Higher temperatures expected by midcentury increase the risk of shocks to crop production, while the interconnected nature of the current global food system functions to spread the impact of localized production shocks throughout the world. In this study, we analyze the global potential impact of a present-day event of equivalent magnitude to the US Dust Bowl, modeling the ways in which a sudden decline in US wheat production could cascade through the global network of agricultural trade. We use observations of country-level production, reserves, and trade data in a Food Shock Cascade model to explore trade adjustments and country-level inventory changes in response to a major, multiyear production decline. We find that a 4-year decline in wheat production of the same proportional magnitude as occurred during the Dust Bowl greatly reduces both wheat supply and reserves in the United States and propagates through the global trade network. By year 4 of the event, US wheat exports fall from 90.5 trillion kcal before the drought to 48 trillion to 52 trillion kcal, and the United States exhausts 94% of its reserves. As a result of reduced US exports, other countries meet their needs by leveraging their own reserves, leading to a 31% decline in wheat reserves globally. These findings demonstrate that an extreme production decline would lead to substantial supply shortfalls in both the United States and in other countries, where impacts outside the United States strongly depend on a country's reserves and on its relative position in the global trade network.

Heslin, Alison↗

Core Model Proposal #: 374 Global Iron and Steel Trade

This core model proposal (CMP) enables GCAM to track the gross trade of regional iron and steel commodities. Following the logit-based Armington trade modeling framework, this CMP aims to improve the representation of physical output (Mt) flows in GCAM v6.0’s iron and steel sector. In addition, the core model proposal also updates the regional steel demand and improves the representation of iron and steel technologies (and their energy coefficients) across all GCAM regions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Economic incentives modify agricultural impacts of nuclear war

A nuclear war using less than 1% of the current global nuclear arsenal, which would inject 5 Tg of soot into the stratosphere, could produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history and significant impacts on agricultural productivity and the economy. These effects would be most severe for the first five years after the nuclear war and may last for more than a decade. This paper calculates how food availability would change by employing the Environmental Impact and Sustainability Applied General Equilibrium model. Under a robust world trading system, global food availability would drop by a few percentage points. If the war would destabilize trade, it would magnify by several times the negative ramifications of land productivity shocks on food availability. If exporting countries redirect production to domestic consumption at the expense of importing countries, it would lead to the destabilization of international trade. The analysis suggests that economic models aiming to inform policymakers require both economic behavior analysis and biophysical drivers. Policy lessons derived from a crop model can be significantly nuanced when coupled with economic feedback derived from economic models. Through the impact on yield, farmers could shift production among crops and reallocate land use to maximize profits, showing the importance of general equilibrium effects such as product and input substitution and international trade. Although the global impact on corn and soybean production would be significant when just considering crop production, it could be considerably smaller under the economic model. However, this would be at the expense of other sectors, including livestock. In addition, the costs borne from disruptions to climate would vary significantly across regions, with significant adverse effects in high latitude regions. The severity of the shocks in the high-latitude areas would marginalize the farmers' product and input substitution ability.

Nuclear war↗

Global peak water limit of future groundwater withdrawals

Over the past 50 years, humans have extracted the Earth’s groundwater stocks at a steep rate, largely to fuel global agro-economic development. Given society’s growing reliance on groundwater, we explore ‘peak water limits’ to investigate whether, when and where humanity might reach peak groundwater extraction. Using an integrated global model of the coupled human–Earth system, we simulate groundwater withdrawals across 235 water basins under 900 future scenarios of global change over the twenty-first century. Here we find that global non-renewable groundwater withdrawals exhibit a distinct peak-and-decline signature, comparable to historical observations of other depletable resources (for example, minerals), in nearly all (98%) scenarios, peaking on average at 625 km 3 yr -1 around mid-century, followed by a decline through 2100. The peak and decline occur in about one-third (82) of basins, including 21 that may have already peaked, exposing about half (44%) of the global population to groundwater stress. Most of these basins are in countries with the highest current extraction rates, including the United States, Mexico, Pakistan, India, China, Saudi Arabia and Iran. Furthermore, these groundwater-dependent basins will probably face increasing costs of groundwater and food production, suggesting important implications for global agricultural trade and a diminished role for groundwater in meeting global water demands during the twenty-first century.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Monitoring Interannual Variation in Global Crop Yield Using Long-Term AVHRR and MODIS Observations

Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data have been extensively applied for crop yield prediction because of their daily temporal resolution and a global coverage. This study investigated global crop yield using daily two band Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI2) derived from AVHRR (1981-1999) and MODIS (2000-2013) observations at a spatial resolution of 0.05deg (approx.5 km). Specifically, EVI2 temporal trajectory of crop growth was simulated using a hybrid piecewise logistic model (HPLM) for individual pixels, which was used to detect crop phenological metrics. The derived crop phenology was then applied to calculate crop greenness defined as EVI2 amplitude and EVI2 integration during annual crop growing seasons, which was further aggregated for croplands in each country, respectively. The interannual variations in EVI2 amplitude and EVI2 integration were combined to correlate to the variation in cereal yield from 1982-2012 for individual countries using a stepwise regression model, respectively. The results show that the confidence level of the established regression models was higher than 90% (P value < 0.1) in most countries in the northern hemisphere although it was relatively poor in the southern hemisphere (mainly in Africa). The error in the yield predication was relatively smaller in America, Europe and East Asia than that in Africa. In the 10 countries with largest cereal production across the world, the prediction error was less than 9% during past three decades. This suggests that crop phenology-controlled greenness from coarse resolution satellite data has the capability of predicting national crop yield across the world, which could provide timely and reliable crop information for global agricultural trade and policymakers.

Crop phenology↗

The future of very large subsonic transports

The Very Large Subsonic Transport (VLST) is a multi-use commercial passenger, commercial cargo, and military airlifter roughly 50% larger than the current Lockheed C-5 and Boeing 747. Due to the large size and cost of the VLST, it is unlikely that the commercial market can support more than one aircraft production line, while declining defense budgets will not support a dedicated military VLST. A successful VLST must therefore meet airline requirements for more passenger and cargo capacity on congested routes into slot-limited airports and also provide a cost effective heavy airlift capacity to support the overseas deployment of US military forces. A successful VLST must satisfy three key missions: commercial passenger service with nominal seating capacity at a minimum of 650 passengers with a range capability of 7,000 to 10,000 miles; commercial air cargo service for containerized cargo to support global manufacturing of high value added products, 'just-in-time' parts delivery, and the general globalization of trade; and military airlift with adequate capacity to load current weapon systems, with minimal break-down, over global ranges (7,000 to 10,000 miles) required to reach the operational theater without need of overseas bases and midair refueling. The development of the VLST poses some technical issues specific to large aircraft, but also key technologies applicable to a wide range of subsonic transport aircraft. Key issues and technologies unique to the VLST include: large composite structures; dynamic control of a large, flexible structure; aircraft noise requirements for aircraft over 850,000 pounds; and increased aircraft separation due to increased wake vortex generation. Other issues, while not unique to the VLST, will critically impact the ability to build an efficient and affordable aircraft include: active control systems: Fly-By-Light/Power-By-Wire (FBL/PBW); high lift systems; flight deck associate systems; laminar flow; emergency egress; and modular design. The VLST will encounter severe restrictions on weight, ground flotation, span, length, and door height to operate at current airports/bases, gates, and cargo loading systems. One option under consideration is for a sea-based VLST, either a conventional seaplane or Wing-In-Ground effect (WIG) vehicle, which would allow greater operational flexibility, while introducing other design challenges such as water impact loads and salt-water corrosion. Lockheed Martin is currently developing a floatplane version of the C-130 Hercules which will provide experience with a modern sea-based aircraft. In addition to its own ongoing research activities, Lockheed Martin is also participating in the NASA Advanced Subsonic Technology, High Speed Research (HSR), and other programs which address some of the technologies needed for the VLST. The VLST will require NASA and US aerospace companies to work together to develop new capabilities and technologies for make the VLST a viable part of transportation beyond 2000.

Justice, R. Steven↗