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Understanding software faults and their role in software reliability modeling

This study is a direct result of an on-going project to model the reliability of a large real-time control avionics system. In previous modeling efforts with this system, hardware reliability models were applied in modeling the reliability behavior of this system. In an attempt to enhance the performance of the adapted reliability models, certain software attributes were introduced in these models to control for differences between programs and also sequential executions of the same program. As the basic nature of the software attributes that affect software reliability become better understood in the modeling process, this information begins to have important implications on the software development process. A significant problem arises when raw attribute measures are to be used in statistical models as predictors, for example, of measures of software quality. This is because many of the metrics are highly correlated. Consider the two attributes: lines of code, LOC, and number of program statements, Stmts. In this case, it is quite obvious that a program with a high value of LOC probably will also have a relatively high value of Stmts. In the case of low level languages, such as assembly language programs, there might be a one-to-one relationship between the statement count and the lines of code. When there is a complete absence of linear relationship among the metrics, they are said to be orthogonal or uncorrelated. Usually the lack of orthogonality is not serious enough to affect a statistical analysis. However, for the purposes of some statistical analysis such as multiple regression, the software metrics are so strongly interrelated that the regression results may be ambiguous and possibly even misleading. Typically, it is difficult to estimate the unique effects of individual software metrics in the regression equation. The estimated values of the coefficients are very sensitive to slight changes in the data and to the addition or deletion of variables in the regression equation. Since most of the existing metrics have common elements and are linear combinations of these common elements, it seems reasonable to investigate the structure of the underlying common factors or components that make up the raw metrics. The technique we have chosen to use to explore this structure is a procedure called principal components analysis. Principal components analysis is a decomposition technique that may be used to detect and analyze collinearity in software metrics. When confronted with a large number of metrics measuring a single construct, it may be desirable to represent the set by some smaller number of variables that convey all, or most, of the information in the original set. Principal components are linear transformations of a set of random variables that summarize the information contained in the variables. The transformations are chosen so that the first component accounts for the maximal amount of variation of the measures of any possible linear transform; the second component accounts for the maximal amount of residual variation; and so on. The principal components are constructed so that they represent transformed scores on dimensions that are orthogonal. Through the use of principal components analysis, it is possible to have a set of highly related software attributes mapped into a small number of uncorrelated attribute domains. This definitively solves the problem of multi-collinearity in subsequent regression analysis. There are many software metrics in the literature, but principal component analysis reveals that there are few distinct sources of variation, i.e. dimensions, in this set of metrics. It would appear perfectly reasonable to characterize the measurable attributes of a program with a simple function of a small number of orthogonal metrics each of which represents a distinct software attribute domain.

Munson, John C.↗

A New Heavy-Lift Capability for Space Exploration: NASA's Ares V Cargo Launch Vehicle

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is developing new launch systems in preparation for the retirement of the Space Shuttle by 2010, as directed in the United States (U.S.) Vision for Space Exploration. The Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV) and the Ares V heavy-lift Cargo Launch Vehicle (CaLV) systems will build upon proven, reliable hardware derived from the Apollo Saturn (1961 to 1975) and Space Shuttle (1972 to 2010) programs to deliver safe, reliable, affordable space transportation solutions. This approach leverages existing aerospace talent and a unique infrastructure, as well as the vast amount of legacy knowledge gained from almost a half-century of hard-won experience in the space enterprise. Beginning early next decade, the Ares I will launch the new Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) to the International Space Station (ISS) or to low-Earth orbit for trips to the Moon and, ultimately, Mars. Late next decade, the Ares V's Earth Departure Stage will carry larger payloads such as the lunar lander into orbit, and the Crew Exploration Vehicle will dock with it for missions to the Moon, where astronauts will explore new territories and conduct science and technology experiments. Both the Ares I and Ares V systems are being designed to support longer future trips to Mars. The Exploration Launch Projects Office, located at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center, is designing, developing, testing, and evaluating both launch vehicle systems in partnership with other NASA Centers, Government agencies, and industry contractors. This paper provides top-level information regarding the genesis and evolution of the baseline configuration for the Ares V heavy-lift system. It also touches on risk-based management strategies, such as building on powerful hardware and promoting common features between the Ares I and Ares V systems to reduce technical, schedule, and cost risks, as well as development and operations costs. Finally, it gives a summary of several notable accomplishments over the past year, since the Exploration Launch Projects effort officially kicked off in October 2005, and looks ahead at work planned for 2007 and beyond.

Sumrall, John P.↗

Shuttle-Derived Launch Vehicles' Capablities: An Overview

Shuttle-Derived Launch Vehicle (SDLV) concepts have been developed by a collaborative team comprising the Johnson Space Center, Marshall Space Flight Center, Kennedy Space Center, ATK-Thiokol, Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company, The Boeing Company, and United Space Alliance. The purpose of this study was to provide timely information on a full spectrum of low-risk, cost-effective options for STS-Derived Launch Vehicle concepts to support the definition of crew and cargo launch requirements for the Space Exploration Vision. Since the SDLV options use high-reliability hardware, existing facilities, and proven processes, they can provide relatively low-risk capabilities to launch extremely large payloads to low Earth orbit. This capability to reliably lift very large, high-dollar-value payloads could reduce mission operational risks by minimizing the number of complex on-orbit operations compared to architectures based on multiple smaller launchers. The SDLV options also offer several logical spiral development paths for larger exploration payloads. All of these development paths make practical and cost-effective use of existing Space Shuttle Program (SSP) hardware, infrastructure, and launch and flight operations systems. By utilizing these existing assets, the SDLV project could support the safe and orderly transition of the current SSP through the planned end of life in 2010. The SDLV concept definition work during 2004 focused on three main configuration alternatives: a side-mount heavy lifter (approximately 77 MT payload), an in-line medium lifter (approximately 22 MT Crew Exploration Vehicle payload), and an in-line heavy lifter (greater than 100 MT payload). This paper provides an overview of the configuration, performance capabilities, reliability estimates, concept of operations, and development plans for each of the various SDLV alternatives. While development, production, and operations costs have been estimated for each of the SDLV configuration alternatives, these proprietary data have not been included in this paper.

Rothschild, William J.↗

Reliability-Based Damage Tolerance Framework for Achieving Highly Reusable Launch Systems

The United States Space Force and NASA are exploring approaches that enable rapid launch response via highly reusable launch systems. One hindrance to achieving high reusability is the inability to meet damage tolerance requirements. To this end, a framework for applying reliability-based damage tolerance to space structures is presented. The reliability-based approach employs probabilistic distributions of key input variables such as material properties, geometry, loads, inspection probability, and defect characteristics to predict hardware reliability for the planned mission life. The probabilistic variables needed to perform the reliability assessments are defined and recommendations on how to collect the required data are provided. Several example problems illustrate the implementation and execution of this approach.

Leland Shimizu↗

ISS Utilization for Exploration-Class Missions

Exercise countermeasures are the most commonly utilized approach for maintaining the health and performance of astronauts during spaceflight missions. However, International Space Station (ISS) exercise countermeasure hardware reliability and prescriptions are not at a point of departure to support exploration-class missions. The JSC Exercise Countermeasures Project (ECP) plans to use ISS as a research and hardware evaluation platform to define and validate improved exercise hardware, prescriptions, and monitoring strategies to support crewmember operations on the Moon and Mars. The ECP will partner with JSC's Space Medicine Division to standardize elements of ISS exercise prescriptions to better understand their efficacy and to propose modified prescriptions for implementation that may be used in the crew exploration vehicle and/or lunar habitat. In addition, evaluations of the ISS treadmill harness will be conducted to define and improve fit and function, and assess the next generation medical monitoring devices such as the portable unit for metabolic analysis and the muscle atrophy research and exercise system for completion of periodic fitness evaluations during lunar and Mars travel. Finally, biomechanical data from ISS crew exercise sessions will be obtained to better understand loading and restraint systems, and identify the physiologic requirements during ISS extravehicular activities that may be analogous to extended excursions from the lunar habitat. It is essential to optimize exercise prescriptions, hardware, and monitoring strategies for exploration initiatives using ISS as a platform before the planned retirement of the Shuttle in 2010 and the declining NASA emphasis on ISS to maximize knowledge before embarking on travel to the Moon and Mars.

FIncke, R.↗

Robust, Rework-able Thermal Electronic Packaging: Applications in High Power TR Modules for Space

The higher output power densities required of modern radar architectures, such as the proposed DESDynI [Deformation, Ecosystem Structure, and Dynamics of Ice] SAR [Synthetic Aperture Radar] Instrument (or DSI) require increasingly dense high power electronics. To enable these higher power densities, while maintaining or even improving hardware reliability, requires improvements in integrating advanced thermal packaging technologies into radar transmit/receive (TR) modules. New materials and techniques have been studied and are now being implemented side-by-side with more standard technology typically used in flight hardware.

Hoffman, James Patrick↗

ECLSS Four-Bed CO2 Scrubber Digital Twin

The ECLSS Digital Twin is a cloud-based simulation of the Four-Bed CO2 Scrubber, currently one of the primary means of removing carbon dioxide onboard the International Space Station, that operationalizes SME-developed multi-physics models and replicates conditions of the actual hardware in near real-time. In addition to providing insight into the system’s performance, it will enable prognostics, diagnostics, predictive maintenance, and simulated off-nominal scenarios. By leveraging digital representations, projects can save resources and gain a better understanding of their physical systems with the goal of building robust and reliable hardware for future deep space exploration. The use of data infrastructure in the cloud allows for streamlined analysis and visualization on a much larger scale than is possible with current tools.

Jared Wilson↗

The TMI Regenerative Solid Oxide Fuel Cell

Energy storage and production in space requires rugged, reliable hardware which minimizes weight, volume, and maintenance while maximizing power output and usable energy storage. Systems generally consist of photovoltaic solar arrays which operate (during sunlight cycles) to provide system power and regenerate fuel (hydrogen) via water electrolysis and (during dark cycles) fuel cells convert hydrogen into electricity. Common configurations use two separate systems (fuel cell and electrolyzer) in conjunction with photovoltaic cells. Reliability, power to weight and power to volume ratios could be greatly improved if both power production (fuel cells) and power storage (electrolysis) functions can be integrated into a single unit. The solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) based design integrates fuel cell and electrolyzer functions and potentially simplifies system requirements. The integrated fuel cell/electrolyzer design also utilizes innovative gas storage concepts and operates like a rechargeable 'hydrogen-oxygen battery'. Preliminary research has been completed on improved H2/H20 electrode (SOFC anode/electrolyzer cathode) materials for regenerative fuel cells. Tests have shown improved cell performance in both fuel and electrolysis modes in reversible fuel cell tests. Regenerative fuel cell efficiencies, ratio of power out (fuel cell mode) to power in (electrolyzer mode), improved from 50 percent using conventional electrode materials to over 80 percent. The new materials will allow a single SOFC system to operate as both the electolyzer and fuel cell. Preliminary system designs have also been developed to show the technical feasibility of using the design for space applications requiring high energy storage efficiencies and high specific energy. Small space systems also have potential for dual-use, terrestrial applications.

Cable, Thomas L.↗

A Research Roadmap for Computation-Based Human Reliability Analysis

The United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) is sponsoring research through the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program to extend the life of the currently operating fleet of commercial nuclear power plants. The Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) research pathway within LWRS looks at ways to maintain and improve the safety margins of these plants. The RISMC pathway includes significant developments in the area of thermalhydraulics code modeling and the development of tools to facilitate dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). PRA is primarily concerned with the risk of hardware systems at the plant; yet, hardware reliability is often secondary in overall risk significance to human errors that can trigger or compound undesirable events at the plant. This report highlights ongoing efforts to develop a computation-based approach to human reliability analysis (HRA). This computation-based approach differs from existing static and dynamic HRA approaches in that it: (i) interfaces with a dynamic computation engine that includes a full scope plant model, and (ii) interfaces with a PRA software toolset. The computation-based HRA approach presented in this report is called the Human Unimodels for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER) and incorporates in a hybrid fashion elements of existing HRA methods to interface with new computational tools developed under the RISMC pathway. The goal of this research effort is to model human performance more accurately than existing approaches, thereby minimizing modeling uncertainty found in current plant risk models.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

The TMI regenerable solid oxide fuel cell

Energy storage and production in space requires rugged, reliable hardware which minimizes weight, volume, and maintenance while maximizing power output and usable energy storage. These systems generally consist of photovoltaic solar arrays which operate during sunlight cycles to provide system power and regenerate fuel (hydrogen) via water electrolysis; during dark cycles, hydrogen is converted by the fuel cell into system. The currently preferred configuration uses two separate systems (fuel cell and electrolyzer) in conjunction with photovoltaic cells. Fuel cell/electrolyzer system simplicity, reliability, and power-to-weight and power-to-volume ratios could be greatly improved if both power production (fuel cell) and power storage (electrolysis) functions can be integrated into a single unit. The Technology Management, Inc. (TMI), solid oxide fuel cell-based system offers the opportunity to both integrate fuel cell and electrolyzer functions into one unit and potentially simplify system requirements. Based an the TMI solid oxide fuel cell (SOPC) technology, the TMI integrated fuel cell/electrolyzer utilizes innovative gas storage and operational concepts and operates like a rechargeable 'hydrogen-oxygen battery'. Preliminary research has been completed on improved H2/H2O electrode (SOFC anode/electrolyzer cathode) materials for solid oxide, regenerative fuel cells. Improved H2/H2O electrode materials showed improved cell performance in both fuel cell and electrolysis modes in reversible cell tests. ln reversible fuel cell/electrolyzer mode, regenerative fuel cell efficiencies (ratio of power out (fuel cell mode) to power in (electrolyzer model)) improved from 50 percent (using conventional electrode materials) to over 80 percent. The new materials will allow the TMI SOFC system to operate as both the electrolyzer and fuel cell in a single unit. Preliminary system designs have also been developed which indicate the technical feasibility of using the TMI SOFC technology for space applications with high energy storage efficiencies and high specific energy. Development of small space systems would also have potential dual-use, terrestrial applications.

Cable, Thomas L.↗

Radiation and Nuclear Technology in Planetary Cave Environments

Many technological and environmental challenges must be resolved to enable successful lunar habitation and exploration, and to maximize scientific return. This presentation is intended as a preliminary discussion on three such areas of interest with the intent to identify likely areas of mutual benefit for collaboration and data sharing between the space nuclear and radiological disciplines with the planetary cave community. First is the previously identified and studied possible application of lunar lava tubes or pits to reduce the solar and cosmic radiation environment burden on crew health and hardware reliability. This is an area of continued interest, and should be kept in the forefront of discussion during the selection of sites for potential exploration or long-term habitation. In theory, the prospect of using existing morphology presents an enticing opportunity to reduce the requirements on landed mass or construction while also reducing dose or fluence of harmful natural radiation. However, such discussions should also include the practical implications of relocating habitation hardware and personnel from a landing site to a subsurface location. Inherent risks associated with landing in proximity to the relevant terrain must also be considered and weighed against those imposed by the natural radiation environment. Second is a discussion on the means by which a long-term habitation module or base of operations may be powered throughout the lunar day-night cycle. Fission surface power presents an opportunity to establish round-the-clock power in any lunar surface environment, including permanently shadowed regions where solar panels cannot operate, or in any other non-polar region where solar radiation is available for no more than two weeks per four-week cycle. Among the drawbacks of fission surface power is the need to either land and co-locate a heavy shield to minimize radiological consequences to personnel or equipment, land and operate construction equipment capable of restructuring the in-situ regolith to provide appropriate shielding, or to make use of existing topology features (e.g. craters or pits) to serve as pre-formed radiation barriers. A realistic assessment of the practicality of this third option should involve the selection of candidate features from existing surveys, and assess the effectiveness of the approach using modern radiation transport methodologies. Consideration must be made for the needs to reject waste heat in the thermal power conversion process, which typically requires the use of large area radiators. Energy must be exchanged from the reactor and power conversion system to such radiators, and the impacts on thermal efficiency and secondary scatter of nuclear radiation must be considered. Further consideration should be made for the implications of placement of a power source such that it does not sacrifice valuable scientific opportunity. Placement of a reactor is likely to thereafter prevent personnel access within that feature. Third is a discussion on the use of portable radioisotope power systems (RPS) within confined spaces, both with respect to the dose effects of emitted nuclear radiation and also performance associated with emitted thermal radiation. Radioisotope power systems provide a unique capability to power objects with no reliance upon solar radiance. However, their useable power production relies upon the flow of heat from ‘hot side’ (decaying radioisotope) to ‘cold side’ (radiators emitting heat to space). In the case of a confined volume in vacuum such as a lunar lava tube, that radiated energy will absorb into the wall, which is already above the ‘cold background’ temperature of dark space, and then gradually rises in temperature. That temperature rise, and its implications on availability of useable electrical power, will depend upon factors such as enclosure volume, thermal emissivity/absorptivity, and thermal conductivity through the depth of absorbing media. The advantages of nuclear technology may prove to enable unique scientific exploration opportunities, both above the lunar surface and below. In turn, the unique advantages of lunar lava tubes or pits may present unique opportunities to enhance the application of these technologies and to mitigate the effects of radiation from both natural and technological sources. A discussion on these pairings may prove to be valuable to all, in our endeavor to explore our neighboring worlds.

Radiation↗

Hardware and software reliability estimation using simulations

The simulation technique is used to explore the validation of both hardware and software. It was concluded that simulation is a viable means for validating both hardware and software and associating a reliability number with each. This is useful in determining the overall probability of system failure of an embedded processor unit, and improving both the code and the hardware where necessary to meet reliability requirements. The methodologies were proved using some simple programs, and simple hardware models.

Swern, Frederic L.↗

Electronegative metal dopants improve switching variability in Al 2 ⁢O 3 resistive switching devices

Resistive random-access memories are promising for nonvolatile memory and brain-inspired computing applications. High variability and low yield of these devices are key drawbacks hindering reliable training of physical neural networks. In this paper, we show that doping an oxide electrolyte, Al 2 ⁢O 3 , with electronegative metals makes resistive switching significantly more reproducible, surpassing the reproducibility requirements for obtaining reliable hardware neuromorphic circuits. Based on density functional theory calculations, the underlying mechanism is hypothesized to be the ease of creating oxygen vacancies in the vicinity of electronegative dopants due to the capture of the associated electrons by dopant midgap states and the weakening of Al-O bonds. These oxygen vacancies and vacancy clusters also bind significantly to the dopant, thereby serving as preferential sites and building blocks in the formation of conducting paths. Throughout this work, we validate this theory experimentally by implanting different dopants over a range of electronegativities in devices made of multiple alternating layers of Al 2 ⁢O 3 and WN and find superior repeatability and yield with highly electronegative metals, Au, Pt, and Pd. These devices also exhibit a gradual SET transition, enabling multibit switching that is desirable for analog computing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Microprogramed telemetry processor

Minimum hardware, reliable processor responds rapidly to changing requirements simply by changes in contents of programmable read-only memory. General purpose controller can transfer data onto and off of data bus, perform logic and arithmetic manipulations, and store pertinent data in small internal random-access memory.

Gordon, L. H.↗