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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Trade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease

Probabilistic forecasts play an indispensable role in answering questions about the spread of newly emerged pathogens. However, uncertainties about the epidemiology of emerging pathogens can make it difficult to choose among alternative model structures and assumptions. To assess the potential for uncertainties about emerging pathogens to affect forecasts of their spread, we evaluated the performance 16 forecasting models in the context of the 2015-2016 Zika epidemic in Colombia. Each model featured a different combination of assumptions about human mobility, spatiotemporal variation in transmission potential, and the number of virus introductions. We found that which model assumptions had the most ensemble weight changed through time. We additionally identified a trade-off whereby some individual models outperformed ensemble models early in the epidemic, but on average the ensembles outperformed all individual models. Our results suggest that multiple models spanning uncertainty across alternative assumptions are necessary to obtain robust forecasts for emerging infectious diseases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predicting the effects of climate change on the cross-scale epidemiological dynamics of a fungal plant pathogen

The potential for climate change to exacerbate the burden of human infectious diseases is increasingly recognized, but its effects on infectious diseases of plants have received less attention. Understanding the impacts of climate on the epidemiological dynamics of plant pathogens is imperative, as these organisms play central roles in natural ecosystems and also pose a serious threat to agricultural production and food security. We use the fungal ‘flax rust’ pathogen (Melampsora lini) and its subalpine wildflower host Lewis flax (Linum lewisii) to investigate how climate change might affect the dynamics of fungal plant pathogen epidemics using a combination of empirical and modeling approaches. Our results suggest that climate change will initially slow transmission at both the within- and between-host scales. However, moderate resurgences in disease spread are predicted as warming progresses, especially if the rate of greenhouse gas emissions continues to increase at its current pace. These findings represent an important step towards building a holistic understanding of climate effects on plant infectious disease that encompasses demographic, epidemiological, and evolutionary processes. A core result is that neglecting processes at any one scale of plant pathogen transmission may bias projections of climate effects, as climate drivers have variable and cascading impacts on processes underlying transmission that occur at different scales.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simulating nationwide coupled disease and fear spread in an agent-based model

Human cognitive responses, behavioral responses, and disease dynamics co-evolve over the course of any disease outbreak, and can result in complex feedbacks. We present a dynamic agent-based model that explicitly couples the spread of disease with the spread of fear surrounding the disease, implemented within the EpiCast simulation framework. EpiCast models transmission within a realistic synthetic population, capturing individual-level interactions. In our model, fear propagates through both in-person contact and broadcast media, prompting individuals to adopt protective behaviors that reduce disease spread. In order to better understand these coupled dynamics, we create and compare a range of compartmental models to ensure that introducing additional disease states does not prevent the emergence of multiple waves in these simpler models. Additionally, we compare a range of behavioral scenarios within EpiCast, varying the level and intensity of fear and behavior change. Our results show that the addition of asymptomatic, exposed, and pre-symptomatic disease states can impact both the rate at which an outbreak progresses and its overall trajectory in compartmental models. In EpiCast, the combination of non-local fear spread via broadcasters and strong behavioral responses by fearful individuals generally leads to multiple epidemic waves, an outcome that occurs only within a narrow parameter range when fear spreads purely through local contact. Accounting for the coupled spread of fear and disease is critical for understanding disease dynamics and designing timely, targeted responses to emerging infectious threats.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2022

Scraping Unstructured Data to Explore the Relationship between Rainfall Anomalies and Vector-Borne Disease Outbreaks

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue account for 17% of all infectious disease cases and lead to more than 700,000 deaths per year. Tracking and predicting the spread of vector-borne diseases is a vital task that could save hundreds of thousands of lives annually. Oftentimes, the first reports of vector-borne disease outbreaks occur through emails and online reporting systems long before they are officially documented. Tracking and predicting the emergence and spread of vector-borne disease outbreaks requires extracting data from these unstructured sources in combination with historical weather and climate data to understand the underlying background triggers and disease dynamics. In this work, we develop a data extraction pipeline for the online outbreak reporting website ProMED-mail that utilizes a web scraper, transformer neural network summarizer, and named entity recognizer to obtain a dataset of malaria, dengue, zika, and chikungunya outbreaks over the last 30 years. This scraped dataset was further analyzed in association with global rainfall anomalies derived from NASA’s Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM [Global Precipitation Mission] (IMERG) dataset. This preliminary analysis was to understand the effect of global rainfall patterns on the spread of vector-borne diseases. Analysis of the ProMED-mail and GPM data shows that vector-borne disease outbreaks are clustered towards the tropics and outbreaks are often amplified during the rainy seasons. Our scraped dataset can be a valuable tool in creating comprehensive georeferenced disease records for modeling and predicting future outbreaks.

Web scraping↗
DOE OSTI2021

Ventilation in Residential Care Environments

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of ventilation rate, directional airflow (e.g. pressure relationships) and airflow barriers on bioaerosol concentration and movement within assisted-living and residential care environments. Included within this report is a comprehensive literature review, field data collection test plan and, an evaluation of commercially available mitigation technologies related to the transmission of COVID-19 in LTC environments. Additionally, this report includes aerosol testing in an actual LTC facility using the test plan developed herein. Nearly 1.5 million people live in 16,000 nursing homes in the U.S. As of December 20, 2020 the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) identified a total of 662,549 confirmed and suspected COVID-19 cases in these and other long-term care (LTC) facilities resulting in 92,373 deaths. At this time, COVID-19 cases in LTC facilities accounted for only 3% of the U.S. total of 21M confirmed cases yet nearly a third of the 350,000 total U.S. deaths. Preliminary studies have found little correlation between the quality of care and transmission of COVID-19 in these facilities, suggesting that even the best infection control practices may not be effective in containing the spread of this potentially airborne disease. As a result, many LTC facilities have implemented quarantine procedures and other measures to isolate infectious residents from the general population. Unfortunately, most LTC facilities were not designed for airborne infection control and guidance for retrofitting existing LTC spaces for airborne isolation is limited.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Ventilation in Residential Care Environments

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of ventilation rate, directional airflow (e.g. pressure relationships) and airflow barriers on bioaerosol concentration and movement within assisted-living and residential care environments. Included within this report is a comprehensive literature review, field data collection test plan and, an evaluation of commercially available mitigation technologies related to the transmission of COVID-19 in LTC environments. Additionally, this report includes aerosol testing in an actual LTC facility using the test plan developed herein. Nearly 1.5 million people live in 16,000 nursing homes in the U.S. As of December 20, 2020 the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) identified a total of 662,549 confirmed and suspected COVID-19 cases in these and other long-term care (LTC) facilities resulting in 92,373 deaths. At this time, COVID-19 cases in LTC facilities accounted for only 3% of the U.S. total of 21M confirmed cases yet nearly a third of the 350,000 total U.S. deaths. Preliminary studies have found little correlation between the quality of care and transmission of COVID-19 in these facilities, suggesting that even the best infection control practices may not be effective in containing the spread of this potentially airborne disease. As a result, many LTC facilities have implemented quarantine procedures and other measures to isolate infectious residents from the general population. Unfortunately, most LTC facilities were not designed for airborne infection control and guidance for retrofitting existing LTC spaces for airborne isolation is limited.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

US National Institutes of Health Prioritization of SARS-CoV-2 Variants

Since late 2020, SARS-CoV-2 variants have regularly emerged with competitive and phenotypic differences from previously circulating strains, sometimes with the potential to escape from immunity produced by prior exposure and infection. The Early Detection group is one of the constituent groups of the US National Institutes of Health National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases SARS-CoV-2 Assessment of Viral Evolution program. Here, the group uses bioinformatic methods to monitor the emergence, spread, and potential phenotypic properties of emerging and circulating strains to identify the most relevant variants for experimental groups within the program to phenotypically characterize. Since April 2021, the group has prioritized variants monthly. Prioritization successes include rapidly identifying most major variants of SARS-CoV-2 and providing experimental groups within the National Institutes of Health program easy access to regularly updated information on the recent evolution and epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 that can be used to guide phenotypic investigations.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Identification of a Continuously Stable and Commercially Available Cell Line for the Identification of Infectious African Swine Fever Virus in Clinical Samples

African swine fever virus (ASFV) is causing outbreaks both in domestic pigs and wild boar in Europe and Asia. In 2018, the largest pig producing country, China, reported its first outbreak of African swine fever (ASF). Since then, the disease has quickly spread to all provinces in China and to other countries in southeast Asia, and most recently to India. Outbreaks of the disease occur in Europe as far west as Poland, and one isolated outbreak has been reported in Belgium. The current outbreak strain is highly contagious and can cause a high degree of lethality in domestic pigs, leading to widespread and costly losses to the industry. Currently, detection of infectious ASFV in field clinical samples requires accessibility to primary swine macrophage cultures, which are infrequently available in most regional veterinary diagnostic laboratories. Here, we report the identification of a commercially available cell line, MA-104, as a suitable substrate for virus isolation of African swine fever virus.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improving probabilistic infectious disease forecasting through coherence

With an estimated $10.4 billion in medical costs and 31.4 million outpatient visits each year, influenza poses a serious burden of disease in the United States. To provide insights and advance warning into the spread of influenza, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) runs a challenge for forecasting weighted influenza-like illness (wILI) at the national and regional level. Many models produce independent forecasts for each geographical unit, ignoring the constraint that the national wILI is a weighted sum of regional wILI, where the weights correspond to the population size of the region. We propose a novel algorithm that transforms a set of independent forecast distributions to obey this constraint, which we refer to as probabilistically coherent. Enforcing probabilistic coherence led to an increase in forecast skill for 79% of the models we tested over multiple flu seasons, highlighting the importance of respecting the forecasting system’s geographical hierarchy.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Understanding racial and ethnic disparities in COVID-19 outcomes using an agent-based simulation [Poster]

Infectious disease outbreaks pose a major threat to public health, economic stability, and human security. In order to mitigate disease impacts, we need to understand drivers that contribute to its spread. Latinx, Black, and American Indian racial and ethnic groups experienced disproportionate health outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic. Current modeling approaches often fail to capture the high level of heterogeneity present in the population needed to measure the drivers of these disparities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Transmission risk of Oropouche fever across the Americas

Abstract Background Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) are important contributors to the global burden of infectious diseases due to their epidemic potential, which can result in significant population and economic impacts. Oropouche fever, caused by Oropouche virus (OROV), is an understudied zoonotic VBD febrile illness reported in Central and South America. The epidemic potential and areas of likely OROV spread remain unexplored, limiting capacities to improve epidemiological surveillance. Methods To better understand the capacity for spread of OROV, we developed spatial epidemiology models using human outbreaks as OROV transmission-locality data, coupled with high-resolution satellite-derived vegetation phenology. Data were integrated using hypervolume modeling to infer likely areas of OROV transmission and emergence across the Americas. Results Models based on one-support vector machine hypervolumes consistently predicted risk areas for OROV transmission across the tropics of Latin America despite the inclusion of different parameters such as different study areas and environmental predictors. Models estimate that up to 5 million people are at risk of exposure to OROV. Nevertheless, the limited epidemiological data available generates uncertainty in projections. For example, some outbreaks have occurred under climatic conditions outside those where most transmission events occur. The distribution models also revealed that landscape variation, expressed as vegetation loss, is linked to OROV outbreaks. Conclusions Hotspots of OROV transmission risk were detected along the tropics of South America. Vegetation loss might be a driver of Oropouche fever emergence. Modeling based on hypervolumes in spatial epidemiology might be considered an exploratory tool for analyzing data-limited emerging infectious diseases for which little understanding exists on their sylvatic cycles. OROV transmission risk maps can be used to improve surveillance, investigate OROV ecology and epidemiology, and inform early detection.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Regional Relative Risk, a Physics-Based Metric for Characterizing Airborne Infectious Disease Transmission

Airborne infectious disease transmission events occur over a wide range of spatial scales and can be an important means of disease transmission. Physics- and biology-based models can assist in predicting airborne transmission events, overall disease incidence, and disease control strategy efficacy. We describe a new theory that extends current approaches for the case in which an individual is infected by a single airborne particle, including the scenario in which numerous infectious particles are present in the air but only one causes infection. A single infectious particle can contain more than one pathogenic microorganism and be physically larger than the pathogen itself. This approach allows robust relative risk estimates even when there is wide variation in (i) individual exposures and (ii) the individual response to that exposure (the pathogen dose-response function can take any mathematical form and vary by individual). Based on this theory, we propose the regional relative risk—a new metric, distinct from the traditional relative risk metric, that compares the risk between two regions. In theory, these regions can range from individual rooms to large geographic areas. In this paper, we apply the regional relative risk metric to outdoor disease transmission events over spatial scales ranging from 50 m to 20 km, demonstrating that in many common cases minimal input information is required to use the metric. Also, we demonstrate that the model predictions are consistent with data from prior outbreaks. Future efforts could apply and validate this theory for other spatial scales, such as transmission within indoor environments. This work provides context for (i) the initial stages of an airborne disease outbreak and (ii) larger-scale disease spread, including unexpected low-probability disease “sparks” that potentially affect remote populations, a key practical issue in controlling airborne disease outbreaks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Knowing the unknown: The underestimation of monkeypox cases. Insights and implications from an integrative review of the literature

Monkeypox is an emerging zoonotic disease caused by the monkeypox virus, which is an infectious agent belonging to the genus Orthopoxvirus. Currently, commencing from the end of April 2022, an outbreak of monkeypox is ongoing, with more than 43,000 cases reported as of 23 August 2022, involving 99 countries and territories across all the six World Health Organization (WHO) regions. On 23 July 2022, the Director-General of the WHO declared monkeypox a global public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC), since the outbreak represents an extraordinary, unusual, and unexpected event that poses a significant risk for international spread, requiring an immediate, coordinated international response. However, the real magnitude of the burden of disease could be masked by failures in ascertainment and under-detection. As such, underestimation affects the efficiency and reliability of surveillance and notification systems and compromises the possibility of making informed and evidence-based policy decisions in terms of the adoption and implementation of ad hoc adequate preventive measures. In this review, synthesizing 53 papers, we summarize the determinants of the underestimation of sexually transmitted diseases, in general, and, in particular, monkeypox, in terms of all their various components and dimensions (under-ascertainment, underreporting, under-detection, under-diagnosis, misdiagnosis/misclassification, and under-notification).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

COVID-19 dynamics across the US: A deep learning study of human mobility and social behavior

This paper presents a deep learning framework for epidemiology system identification from noisy and sparse observations with quantified uncertainty. The proposed approach employs an ensemble of deep neural networks to infer the time-dependent reproduction number of an infectious disease by formulating a tensor-based multi-step loss function that allows us to efficiently calibrate the model on multiple observed trajectories. The method is applied to a mobility and social behavior-based SEIR model of COVID-19 spread. The model is trained on Google and Unacast mobility data spanning a period of 66 days, and is able to yield accurate future forecasts of COVID-19 spread in 203 US counties within a time-window of 15 days. Interestingly, a sensitivity analysis that assesses the importance of different mobility and social behavior parameters reveals that attendance of close places, including workplaces, residential, and retail and recreational locations, has the largest impact on the effective reproduction number. Furthermore, the model enables us to rapidly probe and quantify the effects of government interventions, such as lock-down and re-opening strategies. Taken together, the proposed framework provides a robust workflow for data-driven epidemiology model discovery under uncertainty and produces probabilistic forecasts for the evolution of a pandemic that can judiciously provide information for policy and decision making. All codes and data accompanying this manuscript are available at https://github.com/PredictiveIntelligenceLab/DeepCOVID19.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multiscale Airborne Infectious Disease Transmission

Airborne disease transmission is central to many scientific disciplines, including agriculture, veterinary biosafety, medicine, and public health. Legal and regulatory standards are in place to prevent agricultural, nosocomial, and community airborne disease transmission. However, the overall importance of the airborne pathway is underappreciated; e.g., the U.S. National Library of Medicine’s Medical Subjects Headings (MESH) thesaurus lacks an airborne disease transmission indexing term. This has practical consequences, as airborne precautions to control epidemic disease spread may not be taken when airborne transmission is important but unrecognized. Publishing clearer practical methodological guidelines for surveillance studies and disease outbreak evaluations could help address this situation. To inform future work, this paper highlights selected, well-established airborne transmission events, largely cases replicated in multiple, independently conducted scientific studies. Methodologies include field experiments, modeling, epidemiology studies, disease outbreak investigations, and mitigation studies. Collectively, this literature demonstrates that airborne viruses, bacteria, and fungal pathogens have the ability to cause disease in plants, animals, and humans over multiple distances, from near range (<5 m) to continental (>500 km) in scale. The plausibility and implications of undetected airborne disease transmission are discussed, including the notable underreporting of disease burdens for several airborne-transmitted diseases.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Retrospective Analysis Reveals That the 2021 Outbreaks of African Swine Fever Virus in Ghana Were Caused by Two Distinct Genotypes

African swine fever virus (ASFV) is the causative agent of African swine fever (ASF), a highly infectious and lethal disease of domesticated swine. Outbreaks of ASF have been mostly restricted to the continent of Africa. The outbreaks that have occurred outside of Africa were controlled by extensive depopulation of the domesticated pig population. However, in 2007, an outbreak occurred in the country of Georgia, where ASFV infected wild pigs and quickly spread across eastern Europe. Since the reintroduction of ASF into Europe, variants of the current pandemic strain, ASFV Georgia 2007/01 (ASFV-G), which is classified as Genotype 2 based on p72 sequencing, have been reported in countries within western Europe, Asia, and the island of Hispaniola. Additionally, isolates collected in 2020 confirmed the presence of variants of ASFV-G in Nigeria. Recently, we reported similar variants of ASFV-G collected from domestic pigs suspected of dying of ASF in Ghana in 2022. Here, we retroactively report, based on full-length sequencing, that similar variants were present in Ghana in 2021. The SNP analysis revealed derivatives of ASFV with distinct genetic markers. Furthermore, we identified three full-length ASFV genomes as Genotype 1, indicating that there were two genotypes circulating in proximity during the 2021 ASF outbreaks in Ghana.

Virology↗
DOE OSTI2020

COVID-19: Effects of Environmental Conditions on the Propagation of Respiratory Droplets

As coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to spread, a detailed understanding on the transmission mechanisms is of paramount importance. The disease transmits mainly through respiratory droplets and aerosol. Although models for the evaporation and trajectory of respiratory droplets have been developed, how the environment impacts the transmission of COVID-19 is still unclear. In this study, we investigate the propagation of respiratory droplets and aerosol particles generated by speech under a wide range of temperatures (0–40 °C) and relative humidity (0–92%) conditions. We show that droplets can travel three times farther in low-temperature and high-humidity environment, whereas the number of aerosol particles increases in high-temperature and low-humidity environments. The results also underscore the importance of proper ventilation, as droplets and aerosol spread significantly farther in airstreams. This study contributes to the understanding of the environmental impact on COVID-19 transmission.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A non-traditional crystal-based compound screening method targeting the ATP binding site of Plasmodium falciparum GRP78 for identification of novel nucleoside analogues

Drug resistance to front-line malarial treatments represents an ongoing threat to control malaria, a vector borne infectious disease. The malarial parasite, Plasmodium falciparum has developed genetic variants, conferring resistance to the current standard therapeutic artemisinin and its derivatives commonly referred to as artemisinin-combination therapies (ACTs). Emergence of multi-drug resistance parasite genotypes is a warning of potential treatment failure, reaffirming the urgent and critical need to find and validate alternate drug targets to prevent the spread of disease. An attractive and novel drug target includes glucose-regulated protein 78 kDa (GRP78, or BiP), an essential molecular chaperone protein involved in the unfolded protein response that is upregulated in ACT treated P. falciparum parasites. We have shown that both sequence and structure are closely related to human GRP78 (hGRP78), a chaperone belonging to the HSP70 class of ATPase proteins, which is often upregulated in cellular stress responses and cancer. By screening a library of nucleoside analogues, we identified eight ‘hit’ compounds binding at the active site of the ATP binding domain of P. falciparum GRP78 using a high-throughput ligand soaking screen using x-ray crystallography. These compounds were further evaluated using protein thermal shift assays to assess target binding activity. The nucleoside analogues identified from our screen provide a starting point for the development of more potent and selective antimalarial inhibitors. In addition, we have established a well-defined, high-throughput crystal-based screening approach that can be applied to many crystallizable P. falciparum proteins for generating anti-Plasmodium specific compounds.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗