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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Data and Code for 'GHG Mitigation and Land Use Change Implications of Sustainable Aviation Fuel in the United States'

BEPAM, Biofuel and Environmental Policy Analysis Model, models the agricultural sector and determines economically optimal land-use and feedstock mix at the US scale by maximizing the sum of agricultural sector consumers’ and producers’ surplus subject to various resource balances, land availability, and technological constraints under a range of biomass prices, from zero to $140 Mg-1 over the 2016-2030 period. Here BEPAM is used to model SAF production using energy crops and crop residues. BEPAM uses the GAMS format and uses yield and GHG balance projections from the biogeochemical model, DayCent.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Climate-Driven Divergence in Biophysical and Economic Impacts of Agrivoltaics

Increasing global demands for food and energy necessitate innovative land-use solutions. Agrivoltaics, colocating solar photovoltaics with agriculture, shows promise, but its widespread adoption faces complex biophysical and economic trade-offs in a changing climate. Here, we develop an integrated biophysical-economic modeling framework to quantify how agrivoltaics affect biophysical and economic impacts across the Midwestern United States under both current and project climate conditions. We find strong regional divergences driven by climate gradients. In the humid eastern Midwest, solar panel shading limits photosynthesis, leading to reduced yields (maize -24%; soybean -16%) and lower farmers' profitability (maize -16%; soybean -2%) compared to conventional agriculture. Conversely, in the semiarid western region, shading alleviates heat and water stress, moderating yield reductions for maize (-12%) and even boosting soybean yields (+6%), resulting in improved economic returns (-6% for maize; +9% for soybean), for a scenario with 33% photovoltaic ground coverage ratio. Although agrivoltaics generate substantial electrical energy across all regions, high upfront installation costs challenge solar developers compared to standalone solar photovoltaics. However, our analysis identifies “win-win” opportunities where soybean-based agrivoltaics in the semiarid region produce economic benefits for both farmers and solar developers, highlighting the necessity for region-specific designs tailored to local climate conditions. Critically, future climate projections indicate eastward expansion of semiarid conditions, broadening areas where agrivoltaics can mitigate crop yield penalties (even boosting yield) and improve overall profitability, especially under high-emission scenarios. The results provide a mechanistic and economically integrated understanding essential for developing evidence-based and region-specific strategies to scale agrivoltaics in a changing climate.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Rising temperatures intensify drought propagation and severity across the contiguous United States

Droughts can propagate from meteorological droughts (MD) into agricultural (AD) and hydrological droughts (HD). However, the mechanisms by which rising temperatures and changes in precipitation amount influence MD propagation, and how these dynamics vary across U.S., are not yet fully understood. This gap is critical given the U.S.’s diverse climates and land-use patterns, which lead to region-specific drought vulnerabilities and impacts, such as the 2012 AD in the Great Plains and the 2014 HD in the western U.S. Using a dynamical-statistical framework, we assess warming impacts on drought propagation. Results reveal that the Midwest and Southeast, key agricultural regions, show the largest increases in MD propagation to AD/HD, driven by rising temperatures and declining precipitation, though magnitudes vary regionally. In contrast, the Northeast shows reduced propagation due to increased year-round precipitation. Higher-intensity AD/HD events become disproportionately more likely, with rates varying by region and MD intensity.

Yan, Hongxiang [Pacific Northwest National Laborat↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enhancing climate-smart crop performance in arid agrivoltaics systems: effects of photovoltaic shading and soil amendments on tepary bean growth, yield, and associated soil microbiome

As climate change expands the world’s arid and semiarid regions, sustainable systems that integrate food and energy production are becoming increasingly critical. Agrivoltaics—co-locating crops with photovoltaic (PV) panels—offers a dual land-use strategy that mitigates environmental stress by shading crops, conserving soil moisture, and enhancing PV efficiency. While climate-smart crops like the tepary bean ( Phaseolus acutifolius ) are well adapted to heat and drought, little is known about how these crops and their associated soil microbiomes respond to the unique microclimates created by PV shading. This study evaluated tepary bean performance and plant–microbial interactions under PV-shade vs. no shade across three soil amendment treatments at two experimental sites. We assessed plant traits including germination, phenology, biomass, height, as well as yield and bean morphology, alongside shifts in soil microbial composition and functional potential. Plants grown under PV-shade were generally taller, with extended reproductive periods and higher yields: 42% of shaded plants produced beans compared to only 8% under full sun. Shaded plants also produced rounder, higher-quality beans, whereas non-shaded plants yielded flatter, less developed beans. Microbial community composition was more strongly influenced by amendment and site conditions than by shading alone. Key microbial taxa (e.g., Glomeromycetes, Desulfobacterota ) and predicted functions (e.g., denitrification, nitrogen-respiration, sulfate reduction) were associated with differences in plant performance. Finally, combining agrivoltaic systems with targeted soil amendments can enhance crop yield and soil microbial functionality—offering a promising strategy for sustainable agriculture in arid landscapes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Community civic capacities for meaningful engagement in siting infrastructure for the energy transition

To address the driving forces of climate change and to ensure society has reliable and plentiful energy, considerable amounts of new energy infrastructure will need to be built in scores of communities over the near future. Democratic societies give communities considerable authority, influence, and autonomy on land-use decisions and regulatory policy making. Involving community members and stakeholders in decision making about facility siting and hosting is vital to minimize local opposition. But while there is much written about how to engage communities successfully, there is comparatively little attention given to understanding the civic capacities communities need to be able to participate. This paper reviews literatures on civic capacity and presents a new taxonomy based on six categories: leadership, knowledge, resources, civic engagement, social capital, and culture. It then proposes a systems framework to convey how capacities are developed and employed in collaborative decision making processes about siting and hosting energy facilities. Project sponsors, regulators, stakeholder groups, and communities can use these insights to better prepare and empower communities to participate as equal partners in conversations about energy facility siting.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2026

A coupled hydrologic-agroeconomic modeling framework to evaluate adaptive irrigation strategies under groundwater withdrawal restrictions

Growing groundwater scarcity requires integrated tools to capture interactions among hydrology, agricultural production, markets, and land use. This study presents an iterative modeling framework that couples hydrologic, crop-yield, and economic models to capture two-way feedback among water availability, agricultural production, and market responses under groundwater constraints. The primary goal of this paper is to describe the methodological development of the coupled framework and demonstrate the significance of iterative model interaction. Applied to the western United States, we evaluated adaptive responses to restricting groundwater use beyond recharge levels, represented through changes in irrigation management and expansion or shrinkage of crop markets through land reallocation. Results demonstrate that the iterative coupling converges to stable equilibrium responses within 10 iterations. At equilibrium, deficit irrigation emerges as the dominant adaptation strategy in California, with irrigation levels stabilizing at approximately 70% of full irrigation demand, while Arizona and New Mexico experience stronger yield sensitivities. Early iterations produce commodity price increases of up to 10% for fruit and vegetable crops; however, these responses moderate as land allocation and production patterns adjust across regions. Deficit irrigation and spatial reallocation of irrigated land partially offset production losses, with variability observed across different states: California maintains yields primarily via deficit irrigation, whereas Arizona and New Mexico will rely mainly on reducing irrigated area to absorb the shock. By capturing feedback between biophysical and economic processes, this approach highlights how irrigation strategies and land-use decisions evolve under water stress and provides a transferable platform for evaluating water management policies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Farm Practice Typologies as a Strategy for Management-Relevant Land Use and Land Cover Mapping in the Great Lakes Region (Version 1) [Dataset]

Dataset overview and development This dataset provides spatially explicit agricultural land-use and land-management typologies developed for the Great Lakes Region (GLR) at the farm-parcel level. The typologies were designed to characterize not only the land-use and land-cover (LULC) associated with individual agricultural farm parcels, but also the land-management practices (LMPs), including irrigation, tile drainage, and conservation easements, occurring within those parcels and how these characteristics change through time. The dataset contains four related typology products: Annual integrated typology – describes the combined LULC and land-management characteristics for each farm parcel for individual years. LULC transition typology – describes the temporal pattern of LULC change for each farm parcel across the study period (2008-2023). LMP trend typology – describes the temporal pattern in the occurrence of LMPs for each farm parcel across the study period. Multi-year integrated typology – combines the LULC transition typology and LMP trend typology to provide an integrated characterization of long-term land-use and management patterns. Purpose of the dataset The purpose of these products is to provide a management-relevant integrated and consistent framework for evaluating the spatial and temporal organization of agricultural landscapes across the GLR. The resulting typologies can: support landscape-scale environmental and land-use analysis; provide spatial information relevant to land-management strategies, conservation planning, policy development, and program evaluation; characterize spatial patterns of agricultural land use and management; examine changes in agricultural landscapes through time; and identify persistent, transitional, and changing agricultural systems. Please refer to the README file provided in Files for more details.

Agriculture↗
DOE OSTI2026

CLM5 Simulations of Soil Moisture and Grain Carbon for CONUS at 0.125 degrees

This dataset provides 0.125° gridded simulations of soil moisture and crop grain carbon for the Contiguous United States (CONUS), generated using the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5) with the biogeochemistry module enabled. The data covers a historical baseline (1980–2015) and mid-century future projections (2020–2055). Future projections are organized into two sets of scenarios to distinguish the impacts of different drivers: (1) Atmospheric Only (ATM-only): These scenarios apply future atmospheric forcings while holding land use and land cover change (LULCC) at historical baseline levels. The atmospheric forcings represent moderately versus severely hotter/drier atmospheric conditions (dynamically downscaled perturbed thermodynamics simulations based on CMIP6 SSP245 and SSP585 warming signals), each with cooler versus hotter Earth System Model temperature sensitivity instantiations. These scenarios are identified in the file names as atm45cooler, atm45hotter, atm85cooler, and atm85hotter. (2) Coupled Atmospheric and Land-Use (LAND+ATM): These scenarios apply future atmospheric forcing together with future LULCC by pairing atmospheric pathways with lower versus higher population/economic growth scenarios representing Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3 and 5 (SSP3 and SSP5). These scenarios are identified in the file names as atm45cooler_ssp3, atm45hotter_ssp3, atm45cooler_ssp5, atm45hotter_ssp5, atm85cooler_ssp3, atm85hotter_ssp3, atm85cooler_ssp5, and atm85hotter_ssp5. Please refer to the README file for detailed information on file structure, variables, units, and data formats.

Yao, Lili [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory] ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Higher_wood_density_lowers_feedstock_cost_and_has_minimal_impact_on_biomass_conversion_to_biofuels

Poplar and other woody feedstocks have the potential to provide up to 200 million tons of biomass per year that could be converted to liquid fuels. Most forestry strategies that aim at increasing biomass productivity per hectare rely on short rotation plantations of fast-growing varieties. The improvement of wood density as a key trait itself has largely been overlooked. We evaluated natural variation in wood density across a population of genetically diversePopulus trichocarpatrees grown in a common garden. Wood density varies greatly within this population but is heritable higher wood density was not systematically associated with reduced growth, challenging assumptions of a trade-off between wood density and biomass accumulation. Furthermore, denser wood led to significant improvements throughout the supply chain, including, lowering biomass production and transportation costs. Higher density not correlate to changes in biomass composition. Density did not impact bioconversion in the two feedstock-to-fuel pipelines tested (pretreatment by ionic liquids or soaking in aqueous ammonia, and fermentation to ethanol) on a representative subset of poplars. These findings highlight wood density as a promising breeding target for accelerating the development of high-yielding, conversion-efficient bioenergy crops and as an avenue for increasing land-use efficiency and reducing biomass transportation cost. This data set contain three datasets.

CBI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Impacts of Dual-Use Solar (Agrivoltaics) on Crop Productivity and the Agricultural Economy in Massachusetts and Beyond

This project contributes applied research to better understand the impacts of agrivoltaics on farm microclimates, crop productivity, and economics at the farm and sector level. The site trial research is divided into two sets of site trials integrated into commercial farm and agrivoltaic operations – one set on annual vegetable and hay crops and one on perennial cranberry bog operations. The economic research developed methods for recording and evaluating changes in farm operations and costs, and on the public perception of and willingness-to-accept agrivoltaics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Review of Abrupt Permafrost Thaw: Definitions, Usage, and a Proposed Conceptual Framework

Purpose of ReviewWe review how ‘abrupt thaw’ has been used in published studies, compare these definitions to abrupt processes in other Earth science disciplines, and provide a definitive framework for how abrupt thaw should be used in the context of permafrost science.Recent FindingsWe address several aspects of permafrost systems necessary for abrupt thaw to occur and propose a framework for classifying permafrost processes as abrupt thaw in the future. Based on a literature review and our collective expertise, we propose that abrupt thaw refers to thaw processes that lead to a substantial persistent environmental change within a few decades. Abrupt thaw typically occurs in ice-rich permafrost but may be initiated in ice-poor permafrost by external factors such as hydrologic change (i.e., increased streamflow, soil moisture fluctuations, altered groundwater recharge) or wildfire.SummaryPermafrost thaw alters greenhouse gas emissions, soil and vegetation properties, and hydrologic flow, threatening infrastructure and the cultures and livelihoods of northern communities. The term ‘abrupt thaw’ has emerged in scientific discourse over the past two decades to differentiate processes that rapidly impact large depths of permafrost, such as thermokarst, from more gradual, top-down thaw processes that impact centimeters of near-surface permafrost over years to decades. However, there has been no formal definition for abrupt thaw and its use in the scientific literature has varied considerably. Our standardized definition of abrupt thaw offers a path forward to better understand drivers and patterns of abrupt thaw and its consequences for global greenhouse gas budgets, impacts to infrastructure and land-use, and Arctic policy- and decision-making.

Webb, Hailey↗
DOE OSTI2025

Contrasting effects of land-use and local disturbance on plant and pollinator communities in wetlands

While pollinators and wetlands both provide important ecosystem services (e.g., the pollination of flowering plants and improving water quality), the relationship between the two is not well understood. Both biotic and abiotic effects can mediate the local wetland flower and pollinator community. In this study, we investigated how land use, including a land use gradient at five different radii, from 250 m to 2 km, along with anthropogenic disturbance affected pollinators in wetland ecosystems. We surveyed the abundance and diversity of plant-pollinator communities in fifteen different wetlands across two years. We also tested the relationship between water quality and temperature, and the abundance and diversity of flowering plants and pollinating insects. Our results suggest that increasing temperature, which was strongly associated with developed land use, had a negative effect on the floral display of wetland plants, as well as the abundance of all flower visitors and hover flies. Hover fly abundance was also positively associated with agricultural land use and total nitrogen in the water. Meanwhile, the abundance of female bees was affected by an interaction between temperature and disturbance: female bees were most abundant when temperatures were lower in areas of low disturbance. In contrast, pollinator species richness increased with temperature when developed land use was low, and floral diversity was strongly affected by several interactions between disturbance, land use, and water quality. Finally, the community composition of both plants and insects varied significantly among low, medium, and high disturbance categories, with weedier, non-native species being significantly associated with areas of higher disturbance and in sites with greater anthropogenic land use. We demonstrate that ecological communities shift significantly in response to anthropogenic change. Our work also illustrates the importance of quantifying interactions between land use and local disturbance with abiotic factors such as temperature and water quality on ecological systems.

Disturbance↗
DOE OSTI2026

Economic Incentives for Agrivoltaics Systems with Commodity Crops in the Midwestern United States

Declining costs of photovoltaic (PV) technology and rising market and policy incentives are leading to the growing deployment of PV on cropland in the US Midwest, leading to concerns about the displacement of food and feed crop production. Agrivoltaic (AV) technology enables the dual use of land by co-locating PV energy and crop production, potentially reducing land-use competition with crop production. We develop a benefit-cost analysis framework to compare the net economic returns from AV to those with stand-alone PV and crop production on a representative field and show conditions under which AV can be more profitable for both a solar developer and a farmer. We integrate it with a crop and solar energy model to simulate the performance of various field designs and space and height configurations in AV systems to accommodate soybean production with conventional farm equipment under representative conditions in the US Midwest. We find that an AV system with soybean production is less profitable than PV alone for a solar developer due to the high capital costs of raising panel height, and less profitable for a farmer than leasing land for PV due to its adverse effects of shading on crop yield. We discuss the changes in technology and market prices of solar energy and soybeans that are necessary to make the AV system profitable for solar developers and farmers. We show that AV can worsen rather than mitigate the conflict between food crops and solar energy production in the Midwest.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Future Spatially Explicit Patterns of Land Transitions in the United States With Multiple Stressors

Climate change, income and population growth, and changing diets are major drivers of the global food system with implications for land use change. Land use in the U.S. will be affected directly by local and regional forces and indirectly through international trade. In order to investigate the effects of several potential forces on land use changes in the U.S., we advanced capabilities in representing the interactions between natural and human systems by linking a multisectoral and multiregional socio-economic model of the world economy to a model that downscales land use to a 0.5°grid scale. This enables us to translate regional projections of future land use into higher-resolution representations of time-evolving land cover (effectively spatially explicit land use transitions). We applied the framework over the U.S., with a particular interest in the Mississippi River Basin and its four sub-basins, to consider how a range of global drivers affect land use and cover in the target regions. Our results show that under scenarios of high pressure on the world food system a comparative advantage in livestock production amplifies the recent trend toward less cropland and more pastures in the U.S. Under low pressures on the world food system agricultural land is used less intensively. However, there can be key differences among the various land-use transitions at the sub- basin scale. Overall, these results highlighted the need for high resolution details to explicitly understand the implications of land use change on environmental impacts such as carbon storage, soil erosion, chemical use, hydrology, and water quality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Inundation and Sediment Supply Predict Annual but Not Centennial Carbon Accumulation in Tidal Wetlands Across Land‐Use Types

Despite growing interest in the contributions of tidal wetlands to natural climate solutions, data remain scarce on how land use affects their carbon accumulation rates (CAR). Additionally, environmental factors driving the large observed variability in CAR among sites are poorly understood. To address these knowledge gaps, we measured short-term (∼1 year) and long-term (∼100 years) CAR using feldspar marker horizons, 210 Pb profiles, and surface elevation tables from 39 sites in seven estuaries in Oregon and Washington, USA. Sites varied in wetland type (tidal marsh, tidal swamp, nontidal pasture), land-use history (reference, restored, and disturbed), and salinity (fresh to polyhaline). Across both timescales, CAR was lowest in disturbed pastures and highest in restored marshes, reflecting patterns in sediment accretion rates. Short-term CAR exceeded long-term CAR by approximately 50% on average and was only weakly correlated with long-term CAR, with differences among hydrogeomorphic setting. Short-term CAR was well predicted by summer inundation frequency and relative sediment load, together explaining 60% of variance, whereas long-term CAR was poorly predicted by contemporary environmental conditions. These findings highlight the importance of aligning predictor and response timescales when modeling blue carbon dynamics, and reinforce the climate mitigation potential of tidal wetland restoration.

land use and land cover change↗
DOE OSTI2025

United States multi-sector land use and land cover base maps to support human and Earth system models

Abstract Earth System Models (ESMs) require current and future projections of land use and landcover change (LULC) to simulate land-atmospheric interactions and global biogeochemical cycles. Among the most utilized land systems in ESMs are the Community Land Model (CLM) and the Land-Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) products. Regional studies also use these products by extending coarse projections to finer resolutions via downscaling or by using multisector dynamic (MSD) models. One such MSD model is the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), which has its own independent land module, but often relies on CLM or LUH2 as spatial inputs for its base years. However, this requires harmonization of thematically incongruent land systems at multiple spatial resolutions, leading to uncertainty and error propagation. To resolve these issues, we develop a thematically consistent LULC system for the conterminous United States adaptable to multiple MSD frameworks to support research at a regional level. Using empirically derived spatial products, we developed a series of base maps for multiple contemporary years of observation at a 30-m resolution that support flexibility and interchangeability amongst LUH2, CLM, and GCAM classification systems.

Oliver, Jay↗
DOE OSTI2026

IAM-FIRE: a Climate Emulator–Based Framework to Project Wildfire Impacts and Risks for Integrated Assessment Models

Most Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) underrepresent dynamic feedbacks from climate-driven disturbances such as wildfires, potentially overestimating the permanence of land-based carbon sinks. In particular, representing the impacts of forest fires is becoming increasingly important, as these are expected to intensify in the coming years. We introduce IAM-FIRE (Integrated Assessment Model – Fire Impacts & Risks Emulator), a novel framework that enables the projection of wildfire burned area (BA) and carbon emissions (CE) directly from IAM outputs. IAM-FIRE combines a spatial climate emulator, land-use downscaling, vegetation productivity modelling, and an empirical fire model to generate global annual wildfire impacts for arbitrary socioeconomic and emissions scenarios at 0.5° resolution for the period 2020–2100. Calibrated against GFEDv5 observations and using inputs from the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), we report projections BA and CE derived from IAM-FIRE for four scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-6.6 and SSP5-7.6. The model reproduces historical global trends for total BA, including the observed global decline since the early 2000s, and for forest BA. Projected fire trajectories differ strongly among scenarios: total BA range from declines under SSP1-2.6 (-3.36 Mha yr-1) to increases under SSP3-6.6 (+1.6 Mha yr-1). Corresponding total CE show a similar divergence ranging from -15 to +10.6 TgC yr-1. Socioeconomic development exerts a dominant suppressing effect on wildfire impacts while climate change and CO2-driven increases in vegetation productivity amplify fire risk, particularly under high-emissions pathways. Compared with CMIP6 fire-enabled Earth System Models, IAM-FIRE exhibits greater sensitivity to radiative forcing and a stronger role for human-driven fire suppression, highlighting substantial structural uncertainties in future fire projections. By providing a computationally efficient and internally consistent approach to represent wildfire impacts within IAMs, IAM-FIRE enables systematic exploration of fire–climate–land feedbacks and supports improved assessments of mitigation permanence and climate risks in future integrated scenarios.

Rouhette, Theo↗
DOE OSTI2025

Floating photovoltaic power plants: A review of energy yield, reliability, and operation and maintenance

Photovoltaic (PV) systems are essential for the transition to sustainable energy, reducing fossil fuel dependence and mitigating climate change. Although PV requires minimal land area — PV can meet the European Union's energy needs using only 0.26% of its land — space for deployment is often scarce in densely populated regions. Floating photovoltaics (FPV) offer an effective solution to land-use challenges by installing PV systems on floating structures in water bodies. FPV is a growing niche within PV with a cumulative installed capacity reaching 7.7 GW globally by 2023. Almost 90% of the installed FPV capacity is in Asia, with close to 50% of in China alone, while the Netherlands and France are the largest markets outside Asia. FPV shows strong potential to support climate targets, but still faces challenges like regulatory barriers, cost competitiveness compared to ground-based PV (GPV), and uncertainties about environmental impacts and system reliability. FPV systems are currently installed mainly on sheltered inland waters, such as quarry lakes, irrigation ponds and reservoirs. FPV technical standards are still being developed. Guidelines have been published by the World Bank, DNV, and Solar Power Europe, and emerging national standards from South Korea, China, and Singapore address design, components, and safety. The International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) is working on formal standards for floats, mooring systems, and electrical connectors. However, the published best practices lack quantitative guidance for yield modelling and reliability, which this report aims to address. It provides data-driven insights, models, and parameters essential for accurate energy yield, reliability, and maintenance predictions over FPV systems' lifetimes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗