Earth orbital lifetime prediction model and program
Model definitions and Fortran language to predict earth satellite orbital lifetime
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Predicting Lifetime of a Thermomechanically Loaded Component
NASALIFE is a computer program for predicting the lifetime, as affected by low cycle fatigue (LCF) and creep rupture, of a structural component subject to temporally varying, multiaxial thermomechanical loads. The component could be, for example, part of an aircraft turbine engine. Empirical data from LCF tests, creep rupture tests, and static tensile tests are used as references for predicting the number of missions the component can withstand under a given thermomechanical loading condition. The user prepares an input file containing the creep-rupture and cyclic-fatigue information, temperature-dependent material properties, and mission loading and control flags. The creep rupture information can be entered in tabular form as stress versus life or by means of parameters of the Larson-Miller equation. The program uses the Walker mean-stress model to adjust predicted life for ranges of the ratio between the maximum and minimum stresses. Data representing complex load cycles are reduced by the rainflow counting method. Miner's rule is utilized to combine the damage at different load levels. Finally, the program determines the total damage due to creep and combines it with the fatigue damage due to the cyclic loading and predicts the approximate number of missions a component can endure before failing.
Murthy, Pappu L. N.↗
Heuristic Modeling for TRMM Lifetime Predictions
Analysis time for computing the expected mission lifetimes of proposed frequently maneuvering, tightly altitude constrained, Earth orbiting spacecraft have been significantly reduced by means of a heuristic modeling method implemented in a commercial-off-the-shelf spreadsheet product (QuattroPro) running on a personal computer (PC). The method uses a look-up table to estimate the maneuver frequency per month as a function of the spacecraft ballistic coefficient and the solar flux index, then computes the associated fuel use by a simple engine model. Maneuver frequency data points are produced by means of a single 1-month run of traditional mission analysis software for each of the 12 to 25 data points required for the table. As the data point computations are required only a mission design start-up and on the occasion of significant mission redesigns, the dependence on time consuming traditional modeling methods is dramatically reduced. Results to date have agreed with traditional methods to within 1 to 1.5 percent. The spreadsheet approach is applicable to a wide variety of Earth orbiting spacecraft with tight altitude constraints. It will be particularly useful to such missions as the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission scheduled for launch in 1997, whose mission lifetime calculations are heavily dependent on frequently revised solar flux predictions.
Jordan, P. S.↗
Predicting Lifetimes Of CMOS ASIC's From Test Data
Concise report discusses recent developments in use of semiempirical mathematical models to predict rates of failure and operating lifetimes of complementary metal oxide/semiconductor (CMOS) application-specific integrated circuits (ASIC's). Each model represents specific mechanism of failure. Once failure mechanisms and models relevant to given ASIC chosen, adjustable parameters in models fitted to life-test data acquired from representative integrated-circuit structures on test coupons fabricated along with ASIC's. Then design parameters of ASIC's incorporated into models, and models yield lifetimes.
Buehler, Martin G.↗
Predicting lifetime of cast parts
Life expectancy of cast aluminum machine parts can be predicted accurately from fatigue tests at 78 K on notched specimens of aluminum alloy. Method was developed for rocket engine turbopump parts made of high strength, heat treatable alloy with high silicon content; however, technique is applicable to other aluminum casting alloys.
Cooper, R. A.↗
Lifetime prediction of materials exposed to the natural space environment
The goal of this study is to model the lifetime of different types of seal materials based on results obtained from accelerated experiments. A semi-mechanistic approach was taken. Thermal aging data were taken from the literature whereas experiments were conducted at Auburn under this contract for selected environments. The seal materials of interest are Silicone 383, Silicone 650, Viton 835, and Viton 747. The relevant conditions include thermal, oxygen, inert gas, vacuum, and gamma radiation. Compression set data available from NASA were used to examine the thermal effect. Experiments were conducted at Auburn University and at NASA to isolate the role of thermal, oxygen, inert gas, vacuum, gamma irradiation, and proton irradiation. A simple discrete stress relaxation method was developed to determine the relaxation response of the elastomers. Dynamic mechanical thermal analysis was also used to characterize the mechanical response of the specimens. These provide a more meaningful correlation between mechanisms and degradation.
Zee, Ralph↗
SSME lifetime prediction and verification, integrating environments, structures, materials: The challenge
The planned missions for the space shuttle dictated a unique and technology-extending rocket engine. The high specific impulse requirements in conjunction with a 55-mission lifetime, plus volume and weight constraints, produced unique structural design, manufacturing, and verification requirements. Operations from Earth to orbit produce severe dynamic environments, which couple with the extreme pressure and thermal environments associated with the high performance, creating large low cycle loads and high alternating stresses above endurance limit which result in high sensitivity to alternating stresses. Combining all of these effects resulted in the requirements for exotic materials, which are more susceptible to manufacturing problems, and the use of an all-welded structure. The challenge of integrating environments, dynamics, structures, and materials into a verified SSME structure is discussed. The verification program and developmental flight results are included. The first six shuttle flights had engine performance as predicted with no failures. The engine system has met the basic design challenges.
Ryan, R. S.↗
Time-temperature-stress superposition of PBX 9502 compressive creep data for lifetime predictions
The plastic-bonded explosive (PBX) 9502 is a viscoelastic, high-solids loaded polymer bound composite comprised of 95 weight% (wt%) TATB explosive crystals and 5 wt% FK-800 polymer binder. The uniaxial quasi-static mechanical properties have been studied and characterized extensively over 25+ years, including creep. Creep is the strain evolution over time as a result of an asymmetric load typically at temperatures above ambient. Creep measurements to failure can take excessively long periods of time depending on various factors including applied stress, temperature, and loading rate that render a single test to failure impossible. Using the principles of time-temperature-stress superposition (TTSSP), short-term creep tests at various applied stresses and temperatures can be used for long-term creep predictions. The TTSSP model shifts short-term test data using two factors, one for temperature and stress, creating a master curve at a reference test condition. The master curve can be shifted to predict the creep response at any desired test condition. PBX 9502 compression specimens were tested at three temperatures and various applied stresses. This work discusses the TTSSP analysis of PBX 9502 compressive creep data to create a single comprehensive master curve.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Time-Temperature-Stress Superposition of PBX 9502 Compressive Creep Data for Lifetime Predictions
The plastic-bonded explosive (PBX) 9502 is a viscoelastic, high-solids loaded polymer bound composite comprised of 95 weight% (wt%) TATB explosive crystals and 5 wt% FK-800 polymer binder. The uniaxial quasi-static mechanical properties have been studied and characterized extensively over 25+ years, including creep. Creep is the strain evolution over time as a result of an asymmetric load typically at temperatures above ambient. Creep measurements to failure can take excessively long periods of time depending on various factors including applied stress, temperature, and loading rate that render a single test to failure impossible. Using the principles of time-temperature-stress superposition (TTSSP), short-term creep tests at various applied stresses and temperatures can be used for long-term creep predictions. The TTSSP model shifts short-term test data using two factors, one for temperature and stress, creating a master curve at a reference test condition. The master curve can be shifted to predict the creep response at any desired test condition. PBX 9502 compression specimens were tested at three temperatures and various applied stresses. This work discusses the TTSSP analysis of PBX 9502 compressive creep data to create a single comprehensive master curve.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Reliability and Lifetime Predictions of Fine Pitch Ball Grid Arrays in Thermal Cycling
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Fowler, Hannah Nicole [Sandia National Laboratorie↗
Kinetics study of hydrated sodium minerals for quantitative lifetime prediction on Europa’s icy surface
No abstract provided
Hodyss, Robert↗
Filter replacement lifetime prediction
A system for increasing filter economy includes a memory configured to receive measurements of contaminants in an internal and an external environment. A cost effectiveness module is configured to determine a cost of a corrosion rate increase if unfiltered external air intake is increased for cooling, to determine a cost of increased air pressure to filter external air, and to determine if the cost of filtering external air exceeds the cost of the corrosion rate increase. An air intake module is configured to increase an intake of unfiltered external air if it is determined that the cost of filtering external air exceeds the cost of the corrosion rate increase.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DuraMAT FY 2022 Annual Report: Towards Predicting Lifetime
The Durable Module Materials Consortium (DuraMAT) launched in November 2016 with five years of funding from the U.S. Department of Energy s (DOE's) Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO). The program renewed in 2022 for an additional 6 years. DuraMAT is a multi-lab consortium led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, with Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) as core research labs. DuraMAT's overarching goal is to accelerate a sustainable, just, and equitable transition to zero-carbon electricity generation by 2035. We work in partnership with our 22-member industry advisory board and the technical management team at SETO. DuraMAT transitioned from our first five-year program into a new six-year program in 2022. It was a very busy year; DuraMAT wrapped up projects from DuraMAT 1 and kicked off new laboratory-led projects for DuraMAT 2. This transition brings new goals and a renewed focus on accelerating the energy transition by improving photovoltaic (PV) module reliability.
accelerated stress testing↗
Variation in Predicted Orbital Lifetime Due to Launch Year
We present trends in predicted orbital lifetimes of CubeSats based not only on orbital parameters, but also launch year and the Area-to-Mass (AtM) ratio of the CubeSat. Determining the orbital lifetime variation of CubeSats in low-Earth orbit (LEO) is an important aspect of mission planning because of two competing factors: (1) the maximum orbital lifetime for orbital debris mitigation requirements, and (2) the minimum orbit duration necessary to accomplish the spacecraft mission requirements. The orbital lifetime is a function of orbital parameters, the AtM ratio of the CubeSat, and date of orbit insertion. Solar flux varies with time, peaking and declining across the 11-year solar cycle and affecting the amount of atmospheric drag on the CubeSat. This results in large variations in orbital lifetime dependent on the mission's launch date. We calculated the variation of orbital lifetime for multiple commonly used 1U to 6U CubeSat mission types across the two upcoming solar cycles. For any given AtM ratio and altitude combination in this analysis, the predicted orbital lifetime varies up to a factor of five due to orbit insertion occurring in a different year. Some examples of orbital lifetime spreads are 5 months to 2 years, and 1.5 to 7.5 years. While orbital lifetimes correlate to the solar cycle, the phasing of the maximum values varies based on a given AtM ratio and altitude combination. Different combinations of these two factors will result in the maximum predicted orbital lifetime occurring at different launch years throughout the solar cycle. Therefore, there is not a specific year within a solar cycle which can be used to calculate the maximum predicted orbital lifetime for all CubeSats. Since CubeSats are typically flown as a rideshare payload on a launch vehicle, mission planners must account for launch date variation in their orbital lifetime predictions. We recommend calculating orbital lifetime for a range of dates to allow for risk planning due to launch date slips, and other mission planning best practices.
CubeSat↗
Viscoelastic behavior and lifetime (durability) predictions
A method for lifetime or durability predictions for laminated fiber reinforced plastics is given. The procedure is similar to but not the same as the well known time-temperature-superposition principle for polymers. The method is better described as an analytical adaptation of time-stress-super-position methods. The analytical constitutive modeling is based upon a nonlinear viscoelastic constitutive model developed by Schapery. Time dependent failure models are discussed and are related to the constitutive models. Finally, results of an incremental lamination analysis using the constitutive and failure model are compared to experimental results. Favorable results between theory and predictions are presented using data from creep tests of about two months duration.
Brinson, R. F.↗
Methods and systems for diagnosis of failure mechanisms and for prediction of lifetime of metal batteries
Methods for diagnosing failure mechanisms and for predicting lifetime of metal batteries include monitoring rest voltage and Coulombic Efficiency over relatively few cycles to provide profiles that indicate, by the trends thereof, a particular failure mechanism (e.g., electrolyte depletion, loss of metal inventory, increased cell impedance). The methods also include cycling over relatively few cycles an anode-free cell, having the same cathode and electrolyte as the metal battery, but with a current collector instead of the anode. Discharge capacity is monitored and profiled, and a discharge capacity curve is fitted to the discharge capacity profile to discern a capacity retention per cycle. The lifetime of the metal battery is determined using the capacity retention per cycle discerned from the anode-free cell. Related systems include a metal-based battery and an anode-free cell or a battery cell reconfigurable between a metal-based and an anode-free cell.
Li, Bin↗
Recent developments in the prediction of earth orbital satellite lifetime
Orbital lifetime prediction model for earth satellites - lifetime-payload mass optimization
SATELLITE ORBIT↗
Modeling in High Temperature Corrosion: A Review and Outlook
Realizing higher operating temperatures to increase efficiency of future applications for energy conversion and storage while minimizing cost is a challenge for development of high-temperature materials. Simultaneous optimization of mechanical properties and corrosion resistance continues to be a difficult task but is essential due to the need to significantly accelerate the transition between technology readiness levels in the future. Furthermore, oxidation-induced degradation will be a critical life-limiting mechanism at increased operating temperatures. Suitable high-temperature materials cannot be solely identified by time-consuming experiments and reliable computational methods incorporating the relevant physics of processes must be considered to complement the experimental efforts. In the present work, a review of the methods employed to model oxidation-induced material degradation described in literature will be discussed. Furthermore, their capability to predict lifetime and aid in material selection will be evaluated.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗