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DOE OSTI2022

Development and Validation of Algorithms That Analyze Communicating Thermostat Data to Identify Enclosure Retrofit Opportunities

Annual energy savings of up to $\$ 4$ to $\$ 5$ billion could be achieved nationwide through basic insulation and heating system retrofits of existing homes. However, current utility energy efficiency programs are costly and challenging to scale. Customer acquisition occurs primarily through energy bill mailers, mass media, and online advertising that lack specificity about home-specific retrofit opportunities, expected energy savings, and cost-effectiveness. Specific retrofit opportunities are identified via on-site home energy assessments (HEAs) that are inconvenient to homeowners, expensive, and of variable accuracy. We developed computational algorithms that automatically analyze communicating thermostat (CT) heating data that could be used to increase the customer uptake of insulation and air sealing energy conservation measures (ECMs) by identifying homes with the most significant retrofit opportunities, estimating post-retrofit energy savings, and formulating home-specific outreach. The algorithms are based on an extended second-order grey-box model that characterizes a building’s thermal response using lumped elements, coupled with an empirical model of infiltration that accounts for both wind and stack effects. The basic parameters of the model correspond to actual physical parameters of the home, i.e., the home’s overall R-value of and the building envelope ACH50. Unlike the conventional approach, which estimates model parameters based on the best fit to the observed time-dependent room temperature, our approach derives correlations between the daily heating system runtime and temperature difference (indoor-outdoor) that are more robust to data quality issues in real-world applications. We also used HEA data for algorithm development and validation. With the help of our utility partners, Eversource and National Grid, we obtained data sets for hundreds of Massachusetts homes. For each home, these data sets included three sets of information anonymized by the utility: (1) CT data (HVAC runtime, room temperature, and, for some vendors, outdoor temperature and wind speed) collected by the CT vendor (one of three) over a heating season, (2) HEA report performed by the HEA vendor (same vendor for all homes), (3) Monthly utility gas bills coincident with the CT data (3 to 24 per home, depending on availability). For some homes, we also obtained blower-door test results. Initially, we applied the algorithms developed to homes with a single CT and then extended them to homes with two CTs by using an equivalent home approach. Finally, we developed algorithms for prediction of energy savings and a methodology of comparing our predictions with those generated by HEAs. The main technical results indicate that we can reliably identify homes with insulation and/or air sealing retrofit opportunities and provide accurate savings predictions. Our hypothesis is that the algorithms could be applied to utility energy efficiency programs to identify homes that could realize significant energy savings from insulation and/or air sealing retrofits. This information could then be used to reach out to those homes with highly customized outreach, thereby delivering increased program energy savings and cost-effectiveness. This would: Significantly increase the uptake rate of on-site HEAs, and Significantly increase the fraction of HEAs resulting in ECM implementation. To test these hypotheses, we designed and conducted a randomized controlled trial (RCT). The RCT results suggest that personal messaging leads to a two- to five-fold increase in the HEA uptake rate.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning-enhanced MPC for demand flexibility in small commercial buildings: An experimental study

Small- and medium-sized commercial buildings (SMCBs) represent the majority of U.S. commercial building stock and a significant share of peak electricity demand, yet they often lack centralized building automation systems, representing a significant untapped resource for urban energy management. This infrastructure gap makes advanced control implementation challenging, limiting the potential for widespread demand flexibility. Model Predictive Control (MPC) has shown strong potential for load shifting, peak demand reduction, and cost savings, but its effectiveness is hindered by unmeasured disturbances such as internal heat gains. This paper presents a Hybrid MPC framework that integrates a physics-based gray-box building thermal model, identified using a lumped disturbance (LD) approach, with a machine learning (ML) model for forecasting unmeasured disturbances. The hybrid approach is designed for buildings with multiple individually controlled heat pump and thermostat pairs, common in SMCBs, and aims to optimize coordinated scheduling of multiple heat pumps under dynamic electricity pricing while respecting comfort constraints. The methodology is validated through both simulations of case study buildings and experimental studies at a highly-instrumented test facility. Simulation results show that the Hybrid MPC achieves substantial load shifting and peak demand reduction, approaching the performance of an ideal MPC with perfect disturbance knowledge, and outperforming a conventional MPC without disturbance forecasting. In experiments, the Hybrid MPC reduced daily HVAC energy costs by 8.7%, peak-price time load (load shifting) by 41.7%, and peak demand by 29.2% compared to baseline control, demonstrating comparable benefits to the 11.6% cost savings, 42.9% load shifting, and 23.2% peak reduction of the ideal MPC. These results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid modeling approach can significantly improve MPC performance in real-world SMCB applications without requiring additional disturbance measurements.

Demand Flexibility↗

DOE OSTI2021

Flow Assisted Evaporative Cooling for Electric Motor

This paper examines a novel concept of flow assisted latent heat driven two-phase evaporative cooling (EC) confined in-between slot liner and active-winding of electric motor. Wicking micro-structure enhanced PDMS liner axially sucks coolant in the form of thin film between the PDMS liner and active-winding and eventually enables thin film evaporation on the outer surface of the active-winding. Therefore, EC based thermal management eliminates contact resistance between the winding and slot-liner and, enhances the heat extraction from the winding without compromising the electro-magnetic performance. Two-way coupled electro-magnetic (EM) – computational fluid dynamics/heat transfer (CFD/HT) and EM - lumped parameter thermal network (LPTN) models have been developed to assess the electro-thermal performance of the EC under steady and transient conditions. Taking a case study of a 125 kW jacket cooled BMW i3 motor and dielectric coolant FC-84, EC is shown to be capable of handling a maximum steady state rms current density of 26 A/mm2 at a evaporative heat transfer coefficient of 5,000 W/m2.K, which is about 78.7% higher compared to the traditional jacket cooling (JC). In case of EC, a maximum steady state and transient rms current density of 30 A/mm2 (106.2% higher compared to the JC), and 40.8 A/mm2 have been realized by using high thermal conductivity epoxy (1.9 W/m.K) impregnation material. Thermal performance of the EC is also assessed and compared with JC over a dynamic drive cycle. Lastly, a motorette testing has been performed to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed EC method and to validate the developed modeling framework.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1978

Recent advances in thermal-structural analysis and design

A continuing effort to develop a comprehensive capability for thermal-structural analysis and automated design (sizing) is reviewed. A principal role in the activity is played by the finite element program SPAR which contains both an efficient structural and thermal analysis capability. The benefit of having thermal and structural analyses in the same finite element program is illustrated by the application of SPAR to design calculations for the National Transonic Facility - a cryogenic wind tunnel under construction at Langley. Some experience with large-scale thermal structural analysis problems, particularly the space shuttle orbiter, has led to the identification of some analysis needs. Those needs include automated model generation and data output for lumped parameter thermal analysis, faster solution methods for nonlinear transient heat transfer, automated interpolation of temperature data from a thermal finite element model to a dissimilar structural finite model, and automated techniques to identify the times at which the critical combinations of transient heating and loads occur on a structure.

Adelman, H. M.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Impact of size and thermal gradient on supercooling of phase change materials for thermal energy storage

Phase change material based thermal energy storage has many current and potential applications in the heating and cooling of buildings, battery and electronics thermal management, thermal textiles, and dry cooling of power plants. However, connecting lab scale thermal data obtained with differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) to the performance of large-scale practical systems has been a major challenge primarily due to the dependence of supercooling on the size and temperature gradient of the system. Here we show how a phase change material’s supercooling behavior can be characterized experimentally using common lab scale thermal analysis techniques. We then develop a statistics based theoretical model that uses the lab-scale data on small samples to quantitatively predict the supercooling performance for a general thermal energy storage application of any size, including also allowing for the possibility of temperature gradients. Finally, we validate the modeling methodology by comparing to experimental results for solid-solid phase change in neopentyl glycol, which shows how the model successfully predicts the changes in supercooling temperature across a large range of cooling rates (2 orders of magnitude) and volumes (3 orders of magnitude). By accounting for thermal gradients, the model avoids ~2x error incurred by lumped approximations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Reduced-Order Model of a Nuclear Power Plant with Thermal Power Dispatch

This paper presents reduced-order modeling of thermal power dispatch (TPD) from a pressurized water reactor (PWR) for providing heat to nearby heat consuming industrial processes that seek to take advantage of nuclear heat to reduce carbon emissions. The reactor model includes the neutronics of the reactor core, thermal–hydraulics of the primary coolant cycle, and a three-lump model of the steam generator (SG). The secondary coolant cycle is represented with quasi-steady state mass and energy balance equations. The secondary cycle consists of a steam extraction system, high-pressure and low-pressure turbines, moisture separator and reheater, high-pressure and low-pressure feedwater heaters, deaerator, feedwater and condensate pumps, and a condenser. The steam produced by the SG is distributed between the turbines and the extraction steam line (XSL) that delivers steam to nearby industrial processes, such as production of clean hydrogen. The reduced-order simulator is verified by comparing predictions with results from separate validated steady-state and transient full-scope PWR simulators for TPD levels between 0% and 70% of the rated reactor power. All simulators indicate that the flow rate of steam in the main steam line and turbine systems decrease with increasing TPD, which causes a reduction in PWR electric power generation. The results are analyzed to assess the impact of TPD on system efficiency and feedwater flow control. Due to the simplicity of the proposed reduced-order model, it can be scaled to represent a PWR of any size with a few parametric changes. In the future, the proposed reduced-order model will be integrated into a power system model in a digital real-time simulator (DRTS) and physical hardware-in-the-loop simulations.

08 HYDROGEN↗

NASA NTRS1985

Temperature control of silica mirrors for cryogenically-cooled telescopes in space

The SIRTF (Space Infrared Telescope Facility) optical subsystem, including the primary mirror, has been modeled using lumped-parameter techniques and a thermal and cryogenic transient analysis program developed previously. Since silica mirrors have been shown to have significantly less distortion due to cryogenic cooldown, a silica primary mirror of approximately 1 m diameter is being considered. Thermal responses to variations in aperture heat load and heat sink temperature have been explored. Calculations have been made of system noise components from primary mirror spatial and temporal temperature variations. Background-limited infrared observations can be made at wavelengths out to 200 micrometers. Mirror thermal performance with and without copper wires for cooling is also considered.

Melugin, R. K.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Simplified Model of VIPER Thermal Management System. Part I: Loop Heat Pipe

NASA’s Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover (VIPER) uses a combination of loop heat pipes (LHPs) and heaters as the primary hardware to modulate the temperature of the electronic boxes and payloads instruments. LHPs have been designed and instrumented to be capable of passive and active shutdown. The goal of the passive shutdown, using a thermal control valve (TCV) to limit the flow of the working fluid, is to preserve thermal energy and avoid unnecessary heat leaks during lunar night. The goal of the active shutdown on the other hand, is to forcefully increase the vehicle internal temperature to bakeout the payload instruments. Several numerical modeling tools are available to analyze LHP performance under the complex set of operational requirements and environments levied on the VIPER Thermal Management System (TMS). Yet, while those numerical modeling tools are capable of detailed performance analysis, they tend to take large computational resources and long computational time. In this paper, a model of a single LHP developed based on control volume approach is presented. By using the control volume approach, the complex geometry of the LHP, and the components attached to it, are reduced to thermal lump capacitances, thus reducing the computation effort. This paper also describes the effort to correlate the proposed LHP model using thermal vacuum (TVAC) test data.

Loop Heat Pipe↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Simplified Model of VIPER Thermal Management System. Part I: Loop Heat Pipe

Loop Heat Pipe↗

NASA NTRS2017

Building Thermal Models

This presentation is meant to be an overview of the model building process It is based on typical techniques (Monte Carlo Ray Tracing for radiation exchange, Lumped Parameter, Finite Difference for thermal solution) used by the aerospace industry This is not intended to be a "How to Use ThermalDesktop" course. It is intended to be a "How to Build Thermal Models" course and the techniques will be demonstrated using the capabilities of ThermalDesktop (TD). Other codes may or may not have similar capabilities. The General Model Building Process can be broken into four top level steps: 1. Build Model; 2. Check Model; 3. Execute Model; 4. Verify Results.

Modeling↗

DOE OSTI2020

Gas Generation Models for Thermal Runaway in Lithium Ion Batteries

A numerical model is implemented to study cell venting, internal pressure, and gas-phase dynamics behavior of Li-ion cells undergoing thermal runaway. A k-ɛ Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) model is adopted to describe the turbulent flow out of the cells, while the fluid dynamics inside the cells is described by Darcy-Forchheimer’s equation. Thermal abuse reactions and gas generation kinetics are described by a single-step lumped reaction model. A series of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations are conducted on a single cell at various states-of-charge (100%, 50%, 25%) to demonstrate detailed flow and thermal behavior as a function of quantity of gas generated during cell venting. Venting events are categorized into two stages: i) breaching of the cell container and ii) thermal runaway reactions. It is shown that the cell response is dominated by the second stage since most of the gases are generated during thermal runaway. Also, the propensity for propagation is highly affected by state-of-charge (SOC). Cells at higher SOCs produce more heat and gas during the venting event, owing to higher mass and concentrations of reacting gases, and consequently reach higher internal cell pressures which increase the risk of side-wall breaching.

Kim, Jinyong↗

NASA NTRS1988

SINDA - Systems Improved Numerical Differencing Analyzer

Capability to model fluid flow added. SINDA is software system developed to solve physical problems governed by diffusion-type equations mathematically modeled by lumped-parameter representations. Used as general thermal analyzer with resistor-and-capacitor-network representations. Adapted to wide range of problems represented by Fourier, Possion, Laplace, or other differential equations. Written in FORTRAN and Assembler.

Damico, Steve J.↗

NASA NTRS1990

SINDA '85/FLUINT, Version 2.2

SINDA, Systems Improved Numerical Differencing Analyzer, software system developed for solving physical problems governed by diffusion-type equations modeled by lumped-parameter representations. Used as general thermal analyzer with resistor-and-capacitor-network representations, adapted to wide range of problems represented by such differential equations as Fourier, Poisson, or LaPlace. Software system updated. FLUINT, FLUid INTegrator, is advanced, one-dimensional fluid-analysis program solving equations of arbitrary fluid-flow networks. Written in FORTRAN and ASSEMBLER.

Cullimore, Brent↗

NASA NTRS1994

Numerical comparison of convective heat transfer augmentation devices used in cooling channels of hypersonic vehicles

Hypersonic vehicles are exposed to extreme thermal conditions compared to subsonic aircraft; therefore, some level of thermal management is required to protect the materials used. Normally, hypersonic vehicles experience the highest temperatures in the nozzle throat, and aircraft and propulsion system leading edges. Convective heat transfer augmentation techniques can be used in the thermal management system to increase heat transfer of the cooling channels in those areas. The techniques studied in this report are pin-fin, offset-fin, ribbed and straight roughened channel. A smooth straight channel is used as the baseline for comparing the techniques. SINDA '85, a lumped parameter finite difference thermal analyzer, is used to model the channels. Subroutines are added to model the fluid flow assuming steady one dimensional compressible flow with heat addition and friction. Correlations for convective heat transfer and friction are used in conjunction with the fluid flow analysis mentioned. As expected, the pin-fin arrangement has the highest heat transfer coefficient and the largest pressure drop. All the other devices fall in between the pin-fin and smooth straight channel. The selection of the best heat augmentation method depends on the design requirements. A good approach may be a channel using a combination of the techniques. For instance, several rows of pin-fins may be located at the region of highest heat flux, surrounded by some of the other techniques. Thus, the heat transfer coefficient is maximized at the region of highest heat flux while the pressure drop is not excessive.

Maldonado, Jaime J.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modeling cell venting and gas-phase reactions in 18650 lithium ion batteries during thermal runaway

A numerical model is developed to study cell venting, internal pressure, and gas-phase dynamics behavior of 18650 Li-ion cells undergoing thermal runaway. A k-e Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) model is adopted to describe the turbulent flow out of the cells, while the fluid dynamics inside the cells is described by Darcy-Forchheimer's equation. Thermal abuse reactions and gas generation kinetics are described by a single-step lumped reaction model. Then, a series of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations are conducted on a single 18650 cell at various states-of-charge (100%, 50%, 25%) to study detailed flow and thermal behavior as a function of quantity of gas generated during cell venting. Venting events are categorized into two stages: i) breaching of the cell container and ii) thermal runaway reactions. It is found that the cell response is dominated by the second stage since most of the gases are generated during thermal runaway. Also, the propensity for propagation is highly affected by state-of-charge (SOC). Cells at higher SOCs produce more heat and gas during the venting event, owing to higher mass and concentrations of reacting gases, and consequently reach higher internal cell pressures which increase the risk of side-wall breaching.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA NTRS2011

Dynamic Simulation of Human Thermoregulation and Heat Transfer for Spaceflight Applications

Models of human thermoregulation and heat transfer date from the early 1970s and have been developed for applications ranging from evaluating thermal comfort in spacecraft and aircraft cabin environments to predicting heat stress during EVAs. Most lumped or compartment models represent the body as an assemblage cylindrical and spherical elements which may be subdivided into layers to describe tissue heterogeneity. Many existing models are of limited usefulness in asymmetric thermal environments, such as may be encountered during an EVA. Conventional whole-body clothing models also limit the ability to describe local surface thermal and evaporation effects in sufficient detail. A further limitation is that models based on a standard man model are not readily scalable to represent large or small subjects. This work describes development of a new human thermal model derived from the 41-node man model. Each segment is divided into four concentric, constant thickness cylinders made up of a central core surrounded by muscle, fat, and skin, respectively. These cylinders are connected by the flow of blood from a central blood pool to each part. The central blood pool is updated at each time step, based on a whole-body energy balance. Results show the model simulates core and surface temperature histories, sweat evaporation and metabolic rates which generally are consistent with controlled exposures of human subjects. Scaling rules are developed to enable simulation of small and large subjects (5th percentile and 95th percentile). Future refinements will include a clothing model that addresses local surface insulation and permeation effects and developing control equations to describe thermoregulatory effects such as may occur with prolonged weightlessness or with aging.

Miller, Thomas R.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Systems improved numerical differencing analyzer

Program solves physical problems governed by diffusion-type equations, provided that equations can be modeled by lumped-parameter representation. Program is used for thermal analysis, and could be adapted to solve Fourier, Poisson, and Laplace differential equations. Program is in FORTRAN IV and Assembler for execution on UNIVAC 1100-series or CYBER 175.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2003

Optimal Feedback Control of Thermal Networks

An improved approach to the mathematical modeling of feedback control of thermal networks has been devised. Heretofore software for feedback control of thermal networks has been developed by time-consuming trial-and-error methods that depend on engineers expertise. In contrast, the present approach is a systematic means of developing algorithms for feedback control that is optimal in the sense that it combines performance with low cost of implementation. An additional advantage of the present approach is that a thermal engineer need not be expert in control theory. Thermal networks are lumped-parameter approximations used to represent complex thermal systems. Thermal networks are closely related to electrical networks commonly represented by lumped-parameter circuit diagrams. Like such electrical circuits, thermal networks are mathematically modeled by systems of differential-algebraic equations (DAEs) that is, ordinary differential equations subject to a set of algebraic constraints. In the present approach, emphasis is placed on applications in which thermal networks are subject to constant disturbances and, therefore, integral control action is necessary to obtain steady-state responses. The mathematical development of the present approach begins with the derivation of optimal integral-control laws via minimization of an appropriate cost functional that involves augmented state vectors. Subsequently, classical variational arguments provide optimality conditions in the form of the Hamiltonian equations for the standard linear-quadratic-regulator (LQR) problem. These equations are reduced to an algebraic Riccati equation (ARE) with respect to the augmented state vector. The solution of the ARE leads to the direct computation of the optimal proportional- and integral-feedback control gains. In cases of very complex networks, large numbers of state variables make it difficult to implement optimal controllers in the manner described in the preceding paragraph.

Papalexandris, Miltiadis↗