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An Initial Analysis of Automating Conjunction Assessment and Collision Avoidance Planning in Space Traffic Management

We introduce a framework that automates the process of assessing potential satellite conjunctions in space, and generating collision avoidance maneuvers to support mitigation efforts within a novel space traffic management (STM) architecture. A software implementation of the framework was developed in a MATLAB-STK integrated environment, however, the concept and framework is agnostic to the language or environment. The software pulls from existing catalogs of spaceborne objects and ingests user-defined parameters to produce conjunction data, which could potentially aid collision avoidance planning in the STM architecture. The utility of the software in maneuver planning and exploring a performance-based tradespace of actions is demonstrated using three example cases: one-to-one conjunction, one-versus-four conjunctions, and a near head-on collision. The framework also provides a test-bed for the use of application programming interfaces (APIs) to demonstrate machine-to-machine communication between entities in our proposed STM architecture. Results from this software implementation are expected to aid distributed decision-making among various stakeholders, and inform efficient, autonomous, structured but flexible concept of operations within STM.

Space Systems Engineering

Decision Aid for Conjunction Risk Mitigation by Differential Drag

In the previous five years, the rate of conjunctions that the NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team processed and analyzed has more than tripled. (NASA CARA, 2024) New missions in the early development phases are now required to plan for dealing with conjunctions under the present space environment, and also projecting forward into a future likely with even further increased utilization of the space environment. Some missions are investigating the possibility of using differential drag to remediate conjunctions without expending limited fuel or for missions without propulsive capabilities. The NASA CARA team studied the historical record of conjunctions to evaluate the circumstances under which differential drag may be successfully applied and have developed a series of tables to use as a decision aid for missions considering differential drag. Currently, if a CARA-protected mission with maneuvering capabilities is predicted to have a conjunction with probability of collision (Pc) greater than 7E-5 (the default value of the ‘yellow threshold’, which may have some other value agreed by CARA and the mission during the Orbital Collison Avoidance Planning (OCAP) process), CARA will use its Maneuver Trade Space (MTS) tool to evaluate and recommend options for the timing and magnitude of a risk mitigation maneuver (RMM), based on the mission’s capabilities. If the conjunction’s Pc is greater than 1E-4, the ‘red threshold’, then an RMM must be executed per NASA Procedural Requirements (NPR) 8079.1 (NASA, 2023), although missions may execute an RMM even if the Pc is lower. The magnitude of the maneuver is typically a few cm/s, and CARA estimates how many will be required for the mission’s nominal lifetime – typically a few per year – during the OCAP process, to inform the mission’s delta-V requirement. For traditional satellites, this is usually smaller than other requirements for orbit insertion, maintenance, and disposal, but for CubeSats or other small satellite missions, a propulsion system may not provide much more than a few cm/s of delta-V or may not fit at all within the available budget of money, time, size, weight, and/or power (SWaP). Conversely, CubeSats often have deployable solar panels, which offer the capacity to have much higher areas facing some directions than others. Such a mission can instead use ‘differential drag’ to remediate a conjunction -- in other words, change its drag area (usually increasing) to deviate from the predicted collision course. This is how Planet’s Dove spacecraft maintain their formations and remediate conjunction risks without having on-board propulsion (Foster, et al., 2017) (Griffith, et al., 2021). CARA has been developing improvements to MTS to support differential-drag for NASA's missions -- where it is effective. CARA records all conjunctions of their protected payloads, with historical records starting in 2005 (with significant conjunction events starting to occur on or after 2013). From this record, approximately 7,300 had a Pc greater than 1E-4 at 3 days prior to the time of closest approach, the time analyzed for differential drag efficacy. Of those, approximately 4,300 had fully-defined covariance matrices stored for both the primary and secondary objects; this set of conjunctions is the basis for the analysis of this work. CARA’s MTS tool was used to propagate the primary satellite forward from that decision point with varying degrees of increase to ballistic coefficient (BC). Because these conjunctions came from multiple missions, the nondimensional ‘delta-BC’ factor was used to quantify and normalize the increase in ballistic coefficient, defined as follows: Delta-BC = BC_new / BC_old - 1 Positive delta-BC factors represent an increase in drag compared to the nominal attitude, while negative delta-BC factors (to a minimum of -1) represent a decrease in drag. At the conclusion of the differential-drag ‘maneuver’, the Pc was recalculated to evaluate whether or not the conjunction was mitigated (Pc < 3E-6). These results were then binned and sorted along several axes, including altitude, amount of delta-BC, and (pre-maneuver) rate of energy dissipation (EDR), to identify underlying patterns. The altitude plot is shown in Figure 1. To validate this analysis, we consulted the record of a NASA mission which uses differential drag to maintain its orbit and remediate conjunction risk. CARA’s empirical record of the mission’s orbit history suggests it achieves a delta-BC of 2.2. Of the twenty-one RMM plans that were submitted by this mission, eighteen were matched with conjunctions in the historical record; of those, twelve were successfully remediated (final measured Pc < 3E-6), and six were not. This is consistent with the expected efficacy for missions orbiting at that altitude. We are presently simulating this mission’s RMMs with MTS; this work is ongoing, but so far, the MTS results are qualitatively in agreement with the empirical results -- correctly predicting that a maneuver would or would not remediate a conjunction, if not exactly matching the final post-remediation Pc value. We found that differential drag was most successful for satellites with perigees below 560 km, and which could adopt an average delta-BC of 2 or greater (that is, increasing their ballistic coefficient by a factor of 3). However, this is a difficult threshold for a mission to clear; very few spacecraft are capable of adopting a high-drag configuration for 72 hours continuously. Planet’s Dove spacecraft use differential drag to remediate conjunctions (Griffith, et al., 2021), and they have a maximum delta-BC factor of 9, but in practice (with mission and charging constraints) they achieve a time-averaged delta-BC that is closer to 2 (Foster, et al., 2017). A mission’s differential drag utility strongly depends on the operational constraints that has the capacity to limit the time-averaged delta-BC. A mission with a high maximum delta-BC of 5 or more can have an effective delta-BC of less than 1 due to operational constraints such as instrument and solar panel pointing, especially if this constraint results in holding an intermediate drag value for most of its orbit. CARA has developed tables that can be used as decision aids to advise missions-in-development about the best way to utilize their differential drag capabilities. For missions below 560 km with the operational flexibility to devote multiple days to holding a high-drag configuration (or a sufficiently high drag ratio to compensate for limitations on that time), they are -- more likely than not -- able to successfully remediate high-risk conjunctions. Conversely, missions that do not meet these exacting criteria -- most missions -- can instead be advised to use on-board propulsion systems to perform RMMs, or to turn their minimum-area face towards the approach vector, thereby reducing Pc at the moment of conjunction due to the decreased Hard-Body Radius (HBR), that is a strongly correlated variable in the Pc calculations. (NASA, 2023)

conjunction assessment

Reducing Landing Site Contamination Using 3-D Trajectory Optimization for Surface Hoppers

Rocket-powered vehicles utilizing Vertical Take-off Vertical Landing (VTVL) are a compelling alternative to surface rovers for exploring planetary and lunar bodies. These so called “hoppers” provide enhanced mobility for accessing locations difficult to reach, and over a wider region of the surface. However, contamination and plume interactions from rocket exhaust deposited at landing sites is anticipated since landing approaches are typically along a vertical direction during the final descent. Consequently, exhaust products may alter the surface chemistry, potentially confounding compositional analysis for samples collected in the vicinity of the landing site or jeopardize mining efforts. There has been no rigorous study on flight maneuvers that can mitigate plume-to-surface interactions. A multi-objective optimization tool has been developed to simulate propulsive hops on a planetary body and minimize both fuel consumption and site alterations. Trajectories are derived by multi-objective optimization and include solutions with significant reduction in contamination for a modest increase in fuel consumption. For these solutions, surface-to-surface propulsive transfer is demonstrated, but the method can also be modified for orbit-to-surface transfers (e.g., landers).

guidance

Reducing Landing Site Contamination Using 3-D Trajectory Optimization for Surface Hoppers

Rocket-powered vehicles utilizing Vertical Take-off Vertical Landing (VTVL) are a compelling alternative to surface rovers for exploring planetary and lunar bodies. These so called “hoppers” provide enhanced mobility for accessing locations difficult to reach, and over a wider region of the surface. However, contamination and plume interactions from rocket exhaust deposited at landing sites is anticipated since landing approaches are typically along a vertical direction during the final descent. Consequently, exhaust products may alter the surface chemistry, potentially confounding compositional analysis for samples collected in the vicinity of the landing site or jeopardize mining efforts. There has been no rigorous study on flight maneuvers that can mitigate plume-to-surface interactions. A multi-objective optimization tool has been developed to simulate propulsive hops on a planetary body and minimize both fuel consumption and site alterations. Trajectories are derived by multi-objective optimization and include solutions with significant reduction in contamination for a modest in-crease in fuel consumption. For these solutions, surface-to-surface propulsive transfer is demonstrated, but the method can also be modified for orbit-to-surface transfers (e.g., landers).

guidance

Real-Time, Interactive Sonic Boom Display

The present invention is an improved real-time, interactive sonic boom display for aircraft. By using physical properties obtained via various sensors and databases, the invention determines, in real-time, sonic boom impacts locations and intensities for aircraft traveling at supersonic speeds. The information is provided to a pilot via a display that lists a selectable set of maneuvers available to the pilot to mitigate sonic boom issues. Upon selection of a maneuver, the information as to the result of the maneuver is displayed and the pilot may proceed with making the maneuver, or provide new data to the system in order to calculate a different maneuver.

Haering, Jr., Edward A.

An Overview of Trajectory Design Operations for the Microwave Anisotropy Probe (MAP) Mission

The main science objective of the Microwave Anisotropy Probe (MAP) mission is to produce an accurate full-sky map of the cosmic microwave background temperature fluctuations - anisotropy. MAP will collect these measurements from a lissajous orbit about the Sun-Earth/Moon L2 Lagrange Point. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Analysis Branch provided mission analysis, maneuver planning and maneuver calibration for the MAP spacecraft. This paper will provide an overview of the MAP trajectory design, a summary of the maneuvers executed. Differences from the pre-launch nominal plan will also be discussed. During the MAP phasing loops, MAP performed three calibration maneuvers in order to characterize the performance of the primary sets of thrusters - +X, +Z, and -Z. The calibration maneuvers were designed to minimize their impact on the trajectory. Four maneuvers were performed to set up the gravity assist of the Moon - required to propel MAP out to its orbit about L2. These maneuvers were performed at the three phasing loop perigees and at 18 hours after the final perigee. It became necessary to alter some of the perigee maneuvers in order to shape the gravity assist. This shaping was done to help meet some mission goals. In particular, the gravity assist was changed slightly in order to remove lunar shadows in both the cruise out to L2 and in the first revolution about L2. This amounted to a change in the phasing loop AV of less than 1 m/s. After the gravity assist, two mid-course correction (MCC) maneuvers were performed in order to fine-tune the trajectory. MCC1 was used to clean up and errors which resulted from the gravity assist. MCC2 was performed in order to mitigate a large stationkeeping maneuver following a crucial instrument calibration period during the cruise phase. MAP executed it's first stationkeeping maneuver in January 16th and is ready for a second calibration period during late Winter / early Spring. Further information concerning subsequent stationkeeping maneuver will be added as they become available.

Cuevas, Osvaldo O.

Trajectory Design Enhancements to Mitigate Risk for the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS)

The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) will employ a highly eccentric Earth orbit, in 2:1 lunar resonance, which will be reached with a lunar flyby preceded by 3.5 phasing loops. The TESS mission has limited propellant and several constraints on the science orbit and on the phasing loops. Based on analysis and simulation, we have designed the phasing loops to reduce delta-V (DV) and to mitigate risk due to maneuver execution errors. We have automated the trajectory design process and use distributed processing to generate and optimal nominal trajectories; to check constraint satisfaction; and finally to model the effects of maneuver errors to identify trajectories that best meet the mission requirements.

satellite

Trajectory Design to Mitigate Risk on the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) Mission

The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) will employ a highly eccentric Earth orbit, in 2:1 lunar resonance, reached with a lunar flyby preceded by 3.5 phasing loops. The TESS mission has limited propellant and several orbit constraints. Based on analysis and simulation, we have designed the phasing loops to reduce delta-V and to mitigate risk due to maneuver execution errors. We have automated the trajectory design process and use distributed processing to generate and to optimize nominal trajectories, check constraint satisfaction, and finally model the effects of maneuver errors to identify trajectories that best meet the mission requirements.

design

On-Orbit Special Testing of NOAA-20/JPSS-1 ATMS

The second Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) recently launched November 2017 on the Joint Polar Satellite System-l satellite (JPSS-l), now re-named NOAA-20. It joins the first ATMS flight unit aboard the Suomi NPP (S-NPP) satellite, as well as older sounders-the Advanced Microwave Sounding Units A & B (AMSU-A/B) and Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS)-on polar-orbiting operational weather satellites. Together, these sounders provide critical all-weather temperature and humidity profile information for Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. This paper presents results from a number of special post-launch tests used to characterize the instrument and provide unique calibration information. These special tests-long stares, alternate techniques for lunar intrusion mitigation and geolocation, spacecraft maneuvers, special scan modes, comparisons with NWP models-require non-standard modes of operation or data analysis, and can only be conducted during commissioning, prior to the start of regular forecast observations.

Kim, Edward

The Space Superhighway: Space Infrastructure for the 21st Century

This paper introduces a concept for space infrastructure developed with input from multiple U.S. government agencies called the Space Superhighway, which could support civil, commercial, and national security space activities. The Space Superhighway is a commercial-first space infrastructure that contains three primary components: regional hubs, a sustainable transportation network, and Earth-to-orbit logistics. Civil, commercial, and national security space sectors could use this common infrastructure to support missions such as satellite servicing, Earth science, and space domain awareness, among others. It utilizes a commercial-first, “infrastructure-as-a-service” approach which contains industry-owned and operated assets with government anchor tenants for commercial services, enabling extended mission lifetime, on-orbit repair, maneuver without regret, and debris mitigation and removal. The Space Superhighway is the space infrastructure needed for the 21st century.

space superhighway

The Space Superhighway: Space Infrastructure for the 21st Century

This poster introduces a concept for space infrastructure developed with input from multiple U.S. government agencies called the Space Superhighway, which could support civil, commercial, and national security space activities. The Space Superhighway is a commercial-first space infrastructure that contains three primary components: regional hubs, a sustainable transportation network, and Earth-to-orbit logistics. Civil, commercial, and national security space sectors could use this common infrastructure to support missions such as satellite servicing, Earth science, and space domain awareness, among others. It utilizes a commercial-first, “infrastructure-as-a-service” approach which contains industry-owned and operated assets with government anchor tenants for commercial services, enabling extended mission lifetime, on-orbit repair, maneuver without regret, and debris mitigation and removal. The Space Superhighway is the space infrastructure needed for the 21st century.

space infrastructure

Detect-and-Avoid Surveillance Range Requirements for Electro-Optical/Infra-Red Sensors

A detect-and-avoid (DAA) system provides surveillance, alerting, and maneuver guidance (referred to as guidance in this report) that are critical to an unmanned aircraft system’s (UAS) ability to maintain separation from manned aircraft and other unmanned aircraft. The last decade has seen significant progress in the development of DAA requirements, spearheaded by RTCA Special Committee 228 (SC228) and subsequently by other standards organizations such as EUROCAE and ASTM. SC-228’s development of DAA requirements assumes the UAS follows instrument flight rules (IFR) and has a remote pilot or operator in the loop. As of the publication of this document, the SC-228’s latest Minimum Operational Performance Standards (MOPS) for DAA, versioned as DO-365B [1], DAA systems use onboard and/or ground surveillance systems to detect traffic. The surveillance systems must detect both cooperative and non-cooperative air traffic. Cooperative traffic are vehicles that have a broadcasting transponder, while non-cooperative traffic do not, and so must be detected via radar or other sensors. A DAA system’s alerting and guidance functions alert the pilot/operator in the loop of potential hazards, such as intruder aircraft, and provide maneuver solutions which help the pilot/operator avoid or mitigate observed hazards. A UAS pilot is expected to coordinate with air traffic control (ATC) before executing a conflict avoidance maneuver if the type of alert is not urgent enough to require an immediate maneuver.

uncrewed aviation systems

Natural Hazards of the Space Environment

Spacecraft in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) are subject to numerous environmental hazards. Here I'll briefly discuss three environment factors that pose acute threats to the survival of spacecraft systems and crew: atmospheric drag, impacts by meteoroids and orbital debris, and ionizing radiation. Atmospheric drag continuously opposes the orbital motion of a satellite, causing the orbit to decay. This decay will lead to reentry if not countered by reboost maneuvers. Orbital debris is a by-product of man's activities in space, and consists of objects ranging in size from miniscule paint chips to spent rocket stages and dead satellites. Ionizing radiation experienced in LEO has several components: geomagnetically trapped protons and electrons (Van Allen belts); energetic solar particles; galactic cosmic rays; and albedo neutrons. These particles can have several types of prompt harmful effects on equipment and crew, from single-event upsets, latchup, and burnout of electronics, to lethal doses to crew.All three types of prompt threat show some dependence on the solar activity cycle. Atmospheric drag mitigation and large debris avoidance require propulsive maneuvers. M/OD and ionizing radiation require some form of shielding for crew and sensitive equipment. Limiting exposure time is a mitigation technique for ionizing radiation and meteor streams.

Evans, Steven W.

NanoSail-D

The "NanoSail-D" mission is currently scheduled for launch onboard a Falcon-1 Launch Vehicle in the early June 2008 timeframe. The NanoSail-D spacecraft will consist of a solar sail subsystem stowed in a 2U volume and a 1U spacecraft bus, provided by Ames Research Center. The primary objectives of the NanoSail-D technology demonstration mission are to fabricate, stow and deploy on-orbit a solar sail and perform a de-orbit maneuver to demonstrate a potential orbital debris mitigation technology. The NanoSail-D mission is being developed through a collaborative effort between the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center and the NASA Ames Research Center Small Spacecraft Office. Details of the NanoSail-D system will be presented, including: 1) design details of the solar sail reflective membrane quadrants, gossamer booms, deployment system and passive attitude control system, 2) design analysis results including structural, thermal, environmental, orbital debris and safety, and 3) test results including deployment, ascent venting, launch vibration and PPOD integration verification.

Montgomery, Edward E., IV

Assessment, Planning, and Execution Considerations for Conjunction Risk Assessment and Mitigation Operations

An operational Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) concept is the real-time process of assessing risk posed by close approaches and reacting to those risks if necessary. The most effective way to completely mitigate conjunction risk is to perform an avoidance maneuver. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has implemented a routine CARA process since 2005. Over this period, considerable experience has been gained and many lessons have been learned. This paper identifies and presents these experiences as general concepts in the description of the Conjunction Assessment, Flight Dynamics, and Flight Operations methodologies and processes. These general concepts will be tied together and will be exemplified through a case study of an actual high risk conjunction event for the Aura mission.

Frigm, Ryan C.

Surge Pressure Mitigation in the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission Core Propulsion System

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission is an international partnership between NASA and JAXA whose Core spacecraft performs cutting-edge measurements of rainfall and snowfall worldwide and unifies data gathered by a network of precipitation measurement satellites. The Core spacecraft's propulsion system is a blowdown monopropellant system with an initial hydrazine load of 545 kg in a single composite overwrapped propellant tank. At launch, the propulsion system contained propellant in the tank and manifold tubes upstream of the latch valves, with low-pressure helium gas in the manifold tubes downstream of the latch valves. The system had a relatively high beginning-of- life pressure and long downstream manifold lines; these factors created conditions that were conducive to high surge pressures. This paper discusses the GPM project's approach to surge mitigation in the propulsion system design. The paper describes the surge testing program and results, with discussions of specific difficulties encountered. Based on the results of surge testing and pressure drop analyses, a unique configuration of cavitating venturis was chosen to mitigate surge while minimizing pressure losses during thruster maneuvers. This paper concludes with a discussion of overall lessons learned with surge pressure testing for NASA Goddard spacecraft programs.

Pressure

Unmanned Aircraft Systems Minimum Operations Performance Standards End-to-End Verification and Validation (E2-V2) Simulation

As Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) make their way to mainstream aviation operations within the National Airspace System (NAS), research efforts are underway to develop a safe and effective environment for their integration into the NAS. Detect and Avoid (DAA) systems are required to account for the lack of "eyes in the sky" due to having no human on-board the aircraft. The current NAS relies on pilot's vigilance and judgement to remain Well Clear (CFR 14 91.113) of other aircraft. RTCA SC-228 has defined DAA Well Clear (DAAWC) to provide a quantified Well Clear volume to allow systems to be designed and measured against. Extended research efforts have been conducted to understand and quantify system requirements needed to support a UAS pilot's ability to remain well clear of other aircraft. The efforts have included developing and testing sensor, algorithm, alerting, and display requirements. More recently, sensor uncertainty and uncertainty mitigation strategies have been evaluated. This paper discusses results and lessons learned from an End-to-End Verification and Validation (E2-V2) simulation study of a DAA system representative of RTCA SC-228's proposed Phase I DAA Minimum Operational Performance Standards (MOPS). NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) was called upon to develop a system that evaluates a specific set of encounters, in a variety of geometries, with end-to-end DAA functionality including the use of sensor and tracker models, a sensor uncertainty mitigation model, DAA algorithmic guidance in both vertical and horizontal maneuvering, and a pilot model which maneuvers the ownship aircraft to remain well clear from intruder aircraft, having received collective input from the previous modules of the system. LaRC developed a functioning batch simulation and added a sensor/tracker model from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) William J. Hughes Technical Center, an in-house developed sensor uncertainty mitigation strategy, and implemented a pilot model similar to one from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Lincoln Laboratory (MIT/LL). The resulting simulation provides the following key parameters, among others, to evaluate the effectiveness of the MOPS DAA system: severity of loss of well clear (SLoWC), alert scoring, and number of increasing alerts (alert jitter). The technique, results, and lessons learned from a detailed examination of DAA system performance over specific test vectors and encounter cases during the simulation experiment will be presented in this paper.

Ghatas, Rania W.

Examination of Icing Induced Loss of Control and Its Mitigations

Factors external to the aircraft are often a significant causal factor in loss of control (LOC) accidents. In today s aviation world, very few accidents stem from a single cause and typically have a number of causal factors that culminate in a LOC accident. Very often the "trigger" that initiates an accident sequence is an external environment factor. In a recent NASA statistical analysis of LOC accidents, aircraft icing was shown to be the most common external environmental LOC causal factor for scheduled operations. When investigating LOC accident or incidents aircraft icing causal factors can be categorized into groups of 1) in-flight encounter with super-cooled liquid water clouds, 2) take-off with ice contamination, or 3) in-flight encounter with high concentrations of ice crystals. As with other flight hazards, icing induced LOC accidents can be prevented through avoidance, detection, and recovery mitigations. For icing hazards, avoidance can take the form of avoiding flight into icing conditions or avoiding the hazard of icing by making the aircraft tolerant to icing conditions. Icing detection mitigations can take the form of detecting icing conditions or detecting early performance degradation caused by icing. Recovery from icing induced LOC requires flight crew or automated systems capable of accounting for reduced aircraft performance and degraded control authority during the recovery maneuvers. In this report we review the icing induced LOC accident mitigations defined in a recent LOC study and for each mitigation describe a research topic required to enable or strengthen the mitigation. Many of these research topics are already included in ongoing or planned NASA icing research activities or are being addressed by members of the icing research community. These research activities are described and the status of the ongoing or planned research to address the technology needs is discussed

Reehorst, Andrew L.