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At least 37 records · Page 2

The present state and the future direction of eddy viscosity models

Information is given in viewgraph form on the present state and future direction of eddy viscosity models. Topics covered include the eddy viscosity dilemma, two-equation models, equations of motion, free shear flows, incompressible free shear flows, model-predicted boundary layer structure, defect layer analysis, the effects of pressure gradients, viscous sublayer structure, wall functions and viscous damping, viscous damping for kappa-omega, the effects of compressibility, perturbation analysis of the wall layer, an alternative compressibility term, unsteady boundary layers, incompressible separation, backstep results, and compressible separation.

Wilcox, David C.↗

Jovian ultraviolet auroral activity, 1981-1991

IUE observations of H2 UV emissions for the 1981-1991 period are presently used to investigate the auroral brightness distribution on the surface of Jupiter. The brightness, which is diagnostic of energy input to the atmosphere as well as of magnetospheric processes, is determined by comparing model-predicted brightnesses against empirical ones. The north and south aurorae appear to be correlated in brightness and in variations of the longitude of peak brightness. There are strong fluctuations in all the parameters of the brightness distribution on much shorter time scales than those of solar maximum-minimum.

Livengood, T. A.↗

Topex Microwave Radiometer thermal control - Post-system-test modifications and on-orbit performance

The Topex Microwave Radiometer has had an excellent thermal performance since launch. The instrument, however, went through a hardware modification right before launch to correct for a thermal design inadequacy that was uncovered during the spacecraft thermal vacuum test. This paper reports on how the initially obscure problem was tracked down, and how the thermal models were revised, validated, and utilized to investigate the solution options and guide the hardware modification decisions. Details related to test data interpretation, analytical uncertainties, and model-prediction vs. test-data correlation, are documented. Instrument/spacecraft interface issues, where the problem originated and where in general pitfalls abound, are dealt with specifically. Finally, on-orbit thermal performance data are presented, which exhibit good agreement with flight predictions, and lessons learned are discussed.

Lin, Edward I.↗

Simulated interannual variability of the Greenland Sea deep water formation and its connection to surface forcing

A fully prognostic Arctic ice-ocean model is used to study the interannual variability of deepwater formation in the Greenland Sea Gyre based on the simulations for the Arctic ice-ocean system for the period 1955 and 1960 - 1985. The model uses monthly climatology for thermodynamic forcing components (such as air temperature and cloudiness), together with constant annual net precipitation and river runoff. The daily wind forcing is derived from analyzed sea level air pressures from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). In summary, the model shows that the occurence of deep convection in the Greenland Sea Gyre is controlled by the extensive Fram Strait ice export and/or local wind conditions in the Greenland Sea. In the latter case the weakening of the local wind curl allows the Polar Front to move eastward. The movement of the Polar Front causes adverse ice conditions, often together with much larger than normal ice export from the Arctic, such as in 1968, which can block convection in the gyre. The density difference between upper and lower layers is investigated as an indication of water mass formation through convection, occurring as strong diffusion in the model. The model-simulated density difference between the average top 100 m and deep levels reveals that the period 1960 - 1985 had only a few distinct years with weak stratification, and, especially, the model predicts no deep convection since the nid-1970s. The common factor for the years of the weakest decrease of the model-predicted heat content of the upper 2000 m which can, to a high degree, be explained by local heat loss.

Haekkinen, Sirpa↗

Increase in Levels of Stratospheric Chlorine and Fluorine Loading between 1985 and 1992

Mixing ratios of 3.44 ppbv (parts per billion by volume) and 1.23 ppbv for HCl and HF above 50 km, surrogates for total chlorine and fluorine, have been measured by the Atmospheric Trace Molecule Spectroscopy (ATMOS) experiment on a March 1992 flight of the Space Shuttle. Compared to the measured values obtained on a 1985 flight, these correspond to a 37% and 62% increase for HCl and HF, respectively. The derived trend in HCl (approx. 0.13 ppbv per year) is in good agreement with the model-predicted increase in chlorine loading of 0.13 ppbv per year, and with the measured trends in HCl total column abundance from reported ground-based observations. The main source of this change can be attributed to the release of man-made chlorofluorocarbons (CFC's) and hydro-chloro-fluoro-carbons (HCFC's). This new value for HCl represents an upper limit to the inorganic chlorine concentration in the stratosphere available for participation in photochemical processes which destroy ozone.

Gunson, M. R.↗

Wind Forcing of the North Sea Pole Tide

The Chandler wobble of the earth's rotation has a period near 14 months and sets up the 0.5 cm amplitude pole tide in the deep oceans, However, the pole tide is anomalously large in the North Sea, where the amplitude increases sharply up to 3 cm along the continental coast. It is shown here that the sea levels are well correlated with winds at the pole tide frequency. The Princeton Ocean Model is used to investigate the response of the North Sea to wind forcing. The barotropic numerical ocean model depicts realistic coastlines and bathymetry at 5 ft x 5 ft resolution, with 97 x 73 grid points. The monthly mean wind fields for the 40-year period (1958-1997) from the National Centers for Atmospheric Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis were used to force the model. The winds were converted to stress with a neutral drag coefficient that varied linearly with windspeed (instead of using the NCEP windstress). A 5-day simulation was made for each month until the resulting flow regime came into equilibrium, and model water levels at various station locations were saved for comparison with tidal-gauge observed sea levels from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL). The comparison is made for 10 North Sea stations with high quality tide gauge data. We find: (1) good agreement in annual and semi-annual phases and in the trend of amplitude w.r.t. latitude; (2) more importantly for this study, the model-predicted and observed non-seasonal sea level variations show a very significant temporal correlation as well as spectral coherence. However, a large amplitude difference exists between the two sets -- the overall amplitude variability of the observed is generally a factor of 2-3 larger than the model prediction (this same phenomenon has been reported in ocean circulation studies, although the cause is not yet clear.) Our results indicate that the wind forcing is the main cause of the observed large pole tide in the North Sea.

OConnor, W.↗

A Study of Airline Passenger Susceptibility to Atmospheric Turbulence Hazard

A simple, generic, simulation math model of a commercial airliner has been developed to study the susceptibility of unrestrained passengers to large, discrete gust encounters. The math model simulates the longitudinal motion to vertical gusts and includes (1) motion of an unrestrained passenger in the rear cabin, (2) fuselage flexibility, (3) the lag in the downwash from the wing to the tail, and (4) unsteady lift effects. Airplane and passenger response contours are calculated for a matrix of gust amplitudes and gust lengths of a simulated mountain rotor. A comparison of the model-predicted responses to data from three accidents indicates that the accelerations in actual accidents are sometimes much larger than the simulated gust encounters.

Stewart, Eric C.↗

Microphysical Modelling of Polar Stratospheric Clouds During the 1999-2000 Winter

The evolution of the 1999-2000 Arctic winter has been examined using a microphysical/photochemical model run along diabatic trajectories. A large number of trajectories have been generated, filling the vortex throughout the region of polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation, and extending from November until the vortex breakup, in order to provide representative sampling of the evolution of PSCs and their effect on stratospheric chemistry. The 1999-2000 winter was particularly cold, allowing extensive PSC formation. Many trajectories have ten-day periods continuously below the Type I PSC threshold; significant periods of Type II PSCs are also indicated. The model has been used to test the extent and severity of denitrification and dehydration predicted using a range of different microphysical schemes. Scenarios in which freezing only occurs below the ice frost point (causing explicit coupling of denitrification and dehydration) have been tested, as well as scenarios with partial freezing at warmer temperatures (in which denitrification can occur independently of dehydration). The sensitivity to parameters such as aerosol freezing rates and heterogeneous freezing have been explored. Several scenarios cause sufficient denitrification to affect chlorine partitioning, and in turn, model-predicted ozone depletion, demonstrating that an improved understanding of the microphysics responsible for denitrification is necessary for understanding ozone loss rates.

Drdla, Katja↗

Detecting a Terrestrial Biosphere Sink for Carbon Dioxide: Interannual Ecosystem Modeling for the Mid-1980s

There is considerable uncertainty as to whether interannual variability in climate and terrestrial ecosystem production is sufficient to explain observed variation in atmospheric carbon content over the past 20-30 years. In this paper, we investigated the response of net CO2 exchange in terrestrial ecosystems to interannual climate variability (1983 to 1988) using global satellite observations as drivers for the NASA-CASA (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach) simulation model. This computer model of net ecosystem production (NEP) is calibrated for interannual simulations driven by monthly satellite vegetation index data (NDVI) from the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) at 1 degree spatial resolution. Major results from NASA-CASA simulations suggest that from 1985 to 1988, the northern middle-latitude zone (between 30 and 60 degrees N) was the principal region driving progressive annual increases in global net primary production (NPP; i.e., the terrestrial biosphere sink for carbon). The average annual increase in NPP over this predominantly northern forest zone was on the order of +0.4 Pg (10 (exp 15) g) C per year. This increase resulted mainly from notable expansion of the growing season for plant carbon fixation toward the zonal latitude extremes, a pattern uniquely demonstrated in our regional visualization results. A net biosphere source flux of CO2 in 1983-1984, coinciding with an El Nino event, was followed by a major recovery of global NEP in 1985 which lasted through 1987 as a net carbon sink of between 0.4 and 2.6 Avg C per year. Analysis of model controls on NPP and soil heterotrophic CO2 fluxes (Rh) suggests that regional warming in northern forests can enhance ecosystem production significantly. In seasonally dry tropical zones, periodic drought and temperature drying effects may carry over with at least a two-year lag time to adversely impact ecosystem production. These yearly patterns in our model-predicted NEP are consistent in magnitude with the estimated exchange of CO2 by the terrestrial biosphere with the atmosphere, as determined by previous isotopic (delta (sup 13 C) convolution analysis. Ecosystem simulation results can help further target locations where net carbon sink fluxes have occurred in the past or may be verified in subsequent field studies.

Potter, Christopher S.↗

Variational Continuous Assimilation of TMI and SSM/I Rain Rates: Impact on GEOS-3 Hurricane Analyses and Forecasts

We describe a variational continuous assimilation (VCA) algorithm for assimilating tropical rainfall data using moisture and temperature tendency corrections as the control variable to offset model deficiencies. For rainfall assimilation, model errors are of special concern since model-predicted precipitation is based on parameterized moist physics, which can have substantial systematic errors. This study examines whether a VCA scheme using the forecast model as a weak constraint offers an effective pathway to precipitation assimilation. The particular scheme we exarnine employs a '1+1' dimension precipitation observation operator based on a 6-h integration of a column model of moist physics from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global data assimilation system DAS). In earlier studies, we tested a simplified version of this scheme and obtained improved monthly-mean analyses and better short-range forecast skills. This paper describes the full implementation ofthe 1+1D VCA scheme using background and observation error statistics, and examines how it may improve GEOS analyses and forecasts of prominent tropical weather systems such as hurricanes. Parallel assimilation experiments with and without rainfall data for Hurricanes Bonnie and Floyd show that assimilating 6-h TMI and SSM/I surfice rain rates leads to more realistic storm features in the analysis, which, in turn, provide better initial conditions for 5-day storm track prediction and precipitation forecast. These results provide evidence that addressing model deficiencies in moisture tendency may be crucial to making effective use of precipitation information in data assimilation.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

Shuttle Space Suit: Fabric/LCVG Model Validation

A detailed space suit computational model is being developed at the Langley Research Center for radiation exposure evaluation studies. The details of the construction of the space suit are critical to estimation of exposures and assessing the risk to the astronaut on EVA. Past evaluations of space suit shielding properties assumed the basic fabric layup (Thermal Micrometeoroid Garment, fabric restraints, and pressure envelope) and LCVG could be homogenized as a single layer overestimating the protective properties over 60 percent of the fabric area. The present space suit model represents the inhomogeneous distributions of LCVG materials (mainly the water filled cooling tubes). An experimental test is performed using a 34-MeV proton beam and high-resolution detectors to compare with model-predicted transmission factors. Some suggestions are made on possible improved construction methods to improve the space suit s protection properties.

Wilson, J. W.↗

Shuttle Spacesuit: Fabric/LCVG Model Validation

A detailed spacesuit computational model is being developed at the Langley Research Center for radiation exposure evaluation studies. The details of the construction of the spacesuit are critical to estimation of exposures and assessing the risk to the astronaut on EVA. Past evaluations of spacesuit shielding properties assumed the basic fabric lay-up (Thermal Micrometeroid Garment, fabric restraints, and pressure envelope) and Liquid Cooling and Ventilation Garment (LCVG) could be homogenized as a single layer overestimating the protective properties over 60 percent of the fabric area. The present spacesuit model represents the inhomogeneous distributions of LCVG materials (mainly the water filled cooling tubes). An experimental test is performed using a 34-MeV proton beam and highresolution detectors to compare with model-predicted transmission factors. Some suggestions are made on possible improved construction methods to improve the spacesuit's protection properties.

Wilson, J. W.↗

Shuttle Spacesuit: Fabric/LCVG Model Validation

A detailed spacesuit computational model is being developed at the Langley Research Center for radiation exposure evaluation studies. The details of the construction of the spacesuit are critical to estimation of exposures and assessing the risk to the astronaut on EVA. Past evaluations of spacesuit shielding properties assumed the basic fabric lay-up (Thermal Micrometeroid Garment, fabric restraints, and pressure envelope) and Liquid Cooling and Ventilation Garment (LCVG) could be homogenized as a single layer overestimating the protective properties over 60 percent of the fabric area. The present spacesuit model represents the inhomogeneous distributions of LCVG materials (mainly the water filled cooling tubes). An experimental test is performed using a 34-MeV proton beam and high- resolution detectors to compare with model-predicted transmission factors. Some suggestions are made on possible improved construction methods to improve the spacesuit's protection properties.

Wilson, J. W.↗

Model Intercomparison of Indirect Aerosol Effects

Modeled differences in predicted effects are increasingly used to help quantify the uncertainty of these effects. Here, we examine modeled differences in the aerosol indirect effect in a series of experiments that help to quantify how and why model-predicted aerosol indirect forcing varies between models. The experiments start with an experiment in which aerosol concentrations, the parameterization of droplet concentrations and the autoconversion scheme are all specified and end with an experiment that examines the predicted aerosol indirect forcing when only aerosol sources are specified. Although there are large differences in the predicted liquid water path among the models, the predicted aerosol first indirect effect for the first experiment is rather similar, about -0.6 W/sq m to -0.7 W/sq m. Changes to the autoconversion scheme can lead to large changes in the liquid water path of the models and to the response of the liquid water path to changes in aerosols. Adding an autoconversion scheme that depends on the droplet concentration caused a larger (negative) change in net outgoing shortwave radiation compared to the 1st indirect effect, and the increase varied from only 22% to more than a factor of three. The change in net shortwave forcing in the models due to varying the autoconversion scheme depends on the liquid water content of the clouds as well as their predicted droplet concentrations, and both increases and decreases in the net shortwave forcing can occur when autoconversion schemes are changed. The parameterization of cloud fraction within models is not sensitive to the aerosol concentration, and, therefore, the response of the modeled cloud fraction within the present models appears to be smaller than that which would be associated with model "noise". The prediction of aerosol concentrations, given a fixed set of sources, leads to some of the largest differences in the predicted aerosol indirect radiative forcing among the models, with values of cloud forcing ranging from -0.3 W/sq m to -1.4W/sq m. Thus, this aspect of modeling requires significant improvement in order to improve the prediction of aerosol indirect effects.

Penner, J. E.↗

Small Body GN&C Research Report: A Guidance and Control Technique for Small-Body Proximity Operations with Guaranteed Guidance Resolvability and Required Thruster Silent Time

The guidance and control (G&C) algorithms for enabling small-body proximity operations are developed by using a model predictive control approach along with a convexification of the governing dynamics, control constraints, and trajectory/state constraints. The open-loop guidance is solved ahead of time or in a resolvable, real-time manner through the use of PWG (Pseudo Way-point Generation), a technique developed in this research. The PWG scheme ensures required thruster silent times during trajectory maneuvers. The feedback control is implemented to track the PWG trajectories in a manner that guarantees the resolvability for the open-loop problem, enabling the ability to update the G&C in a model-predictive manner. The schemes incorporate gravity models and thruster ring times into discrete dynamics that are solved as a optimal control problem to minimize fuel consumption or thruster energy expenditure. The optimal control problem is cast as an LMI (Linear Matrix Inequality) and then solved through Semi-Definite Programming techniques in a computationally efficient manner that provides convergence and constraint guarantees.

guidance and control (G&C)↗

Enhanced Pseudo-Waypoint Guidance for Spacecraft Maneuvers

An enhanced version of the scheme reported in "Pseudo-Waypoint Guidance for Proximity Spacecraft Maneuvers" (NPO-42753), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 31, No. 6 (June 2007), page 73 was developed. To recapitulate: the scheme provides algorithms for guidance and control (G&C) of a spacecraft maneuvering near a small astronomical body. The open-loop guidance problem is solved in advance or in real time by use of the pseudo-waypoint generation (PWG) method. Feedback control is implemented to track PWG trajectories, in a manner that enables updating of G&C in a model-predictive manner. The scheme includes silent periods following each thruster firing. The original version of the scheme provides for a fire-first, followed-by-silence sequence, which is disadvantageous in that the silence after final firing precludes reduction of any remaining velocity error -- an unacceptable result in the case of a maneuver for which a specific final velocity is required. In the enhanced version, the scheme is augmented with a fire-second technique, so that the final velocity can be established with a much higher precision because both the guidance and feedback firing can be performed and ceased at the final maneuver time.

Carson, John↗

Predicting Pilot Performance in Off-Nominal Conditions: A Meta-Analysis and Model Validation

Pilot response to off-nominal (very rare) events represents a critical component to understanding the safety of next generation airspace technology and procedures. We describe a meta-analysis designed to integrate the existing data regarding pilot accuracy of detecting rare, unexpected events such as runway incursions in realistic flight simulations. Thirty-five studies were identified and pilot responses were categorized by expectancy, event location, and whether the pilot was flying with a highway-in-the-sky display. All three dichotomies produced large, significant effects on event miss rate. A model of human attention and noticing, N-SEEV, was then used to predict event noticing performance as a function of event salience and expectancy, and retinal eccentricity. Eccentricity is predicted from steady state scanning by the SEEV model of attention allocation. The model was used to predict miss rates for the expectancy, location and highway-in-the-sky (HITS) effects identified in the meta-analysis. The correlation between model-predicted results and data from the meta-analysis was 0.72.

Wickens, C.D.↗

Simulation of Micron-Sized Debris Populations in Low Earth Orbit

The update of ORDEM2000, the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model, to its new version ORDEM2010, is nearly complete. As a part of the ORDEM upgrade, this paper addresses the simulation of micro-debris (greater than 10 m and smaller than 1 mm in size) populations in low Earth orbit. The principal data used in the modeling of the micron-sized debris populations are in-situ hypervelocity impact records, accumulated in post-flight damage surveys on the space-exposed surfaces of returned spacecrafts. The development of the micro-debris model populations follows the general approach to deriving other ORDEM2010-required input populations for various components and types of debris. This paper describes the key elements and major steps in the statistical inference of the ORDEM2010 micro-debris populations. A crucial step is the construction of a degradation/ejecta source model to provide prior information on the micron-sized objects (such as orbital and object-size distributions). Another critical step is to link model populations with data, which is rather involved. It demands detailed information on area-time/directionality for all the space-exposed elements of a shuttle orbiter and damage laws, which relate impact damage with the physical properties of a projectile and impact conditions such as impact angle and velocity. Also needed are model-predicted debris fluxes as a function of object size and impact velocity from all possible directions. In spite of the very limited quantity of the available shuttle impact data, the population-derivation process is satisfactorily stable. Final modeling results obtained from shuttle window and radiator impact data are reasonably convergent and consistent, especially for the debris populations with object-size thresholds at 10 and 100 m.

Xu, Y.-L.↗