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At least 37 records · Page 2

Determining Normal-Distribution Tolerance Bounds Graphically

Graphical method requires calculations and table lookup. Distribution established from only three points: mean upper and lower confidence bounds and lower confidence bound of standard deviation. Method requires only few calculations with simple equations. Graphical procedure establishes best-fit line for measured data and bounds for selected confidence level and any distribution percentile.

Mezzacappa, M. A.↗

Quasars with large proper motions: A selection from the LQAC-5 catalogue combined with Gaia EDR3: Focusing on astrometric and photometric properties

Thanks to the cross-identification between the Gaia EDR3 (E-Data Release 3) catalogue and the quasars’ compiled catalogue LQAC-5 (Large Quasar Astrometric Catalogue-5), accurate astrometric parameters as well as photometric measurements were available for a set of 416 113 quasars. After analysing the astrometric and photometric properties of these quasars, we concentrate our study on objects characterized by significant proper motion, which contradicts the postulate that they are fixed in the celestial sphere. We derived statistical properties of the positions, parallaxes, and proper motions of the quasars cross-matched with Gaia EDR3. We carried out a specific investigation of quasars with a proper motion larger than 10 mas yr -1 , and used colour-colour diagrams in mid-infrared to discriminate these quasars from stellar contamination. We discuss, in detail, a few cases where the abnormal proper motion could be caused by misidentifications. We note that 43% of LQAC-5 quasars were not detected by Gaia EDR3, mainly because of the cut-off magnitude at G = 21. The comparison between r(G) (Gaia) and r (SDSS) shows a normal distribution. The normalized distributions of parallaxes and proper motions are identical to that of the Gaia CRF2, as well as the distribution of the G BP -G RP colour index. We have identified 937 LQAC-5 objects (0.27% of the sample) with Gaia EDR3 proper motion which is significant at the 5σ level. We have clearly shown that below z = 0.35, the integrated magnitude G(r) obtained from SDSS spectra is smaller than G (Gaia), leading to the statement that the quasars are generally resolved under this threshold, which should lead to a bad determination of proper motion. Moreover, to discriminate quasars from stellar contamination, we have plotted them in a mid-infrared colour–colour diagram. Finally, we have made a final selection of 41 objects with μ > 10 mas yr -1 , satisfying drastic constraints, which makes them potential candidates for considering their proper motion as real. In this paper we carried out a complete analysis of the quasars of the LQAC-5 which were cross-identified with Gaia EDR3 ; this serves as an alternative and complementary study with respect to Gaia CRF2, involving a different population of quasars. We selected a set of 41 quasars with a proper motion exceeding 10 mas yr -1 , which can be considered as very high for objects which are a priori fixed in the celestial sphere.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

SU-D-BRD-07: Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Statistical Process Control Methods to Detect Systematic Errors For Routine Electron Energy Verification

Purpose: To evaluate the ability of statistical process control methods to detect systematic errors when using a two dimensional (2D) detector array for routine electron beam energy verification. Methods: Electron beam energy constancy was measured using an aluminum wedge and a 2D diode array on four linear accelerators. Process control limits were established. Measurements were recorded in control charts and compared with both calculated process control limits and TG-142 recommended specification limits. The data was tested for normality, process capability and process acceptability. Additional measurements were recorded while systematic errors were intentionally introduced. Systematic errors included shifts in the alignment of the wedge, incorrect orientation of the wedge, and incorrect array calibration. Results: Control limits calculated for each beam were smaller than the recommended specification limits. Process capability and process acceptability ratios were greater than one in all cases. All data was normally distributed. Shifts in the alignment of the wedge were most apparent for low energies. The smallest shift (0.5 mm) was detectable using process control limits in some cases, while the largest shift (2 mm) was detectable using specification limits in only one case. The wedge orientation tested did not affect the measurements as this did not affect the thickness of aluminum over the detectors of interest. Array calibration dependence varied with energy and selected array calibration. 6 MeV was the least sensitive to array calibration selection while 16 MeV was the most sensitive. Conclusion: Statistical process control methods demonstrated that the data distribution was normally distributed, the process was capable of meeting specifications, and that the process was centered within the specification limits. Though not all systematic errors were distinguishable from random errors, process control limits increased the ability to detect systematic errors using routine measurement of electron beam energy constancy.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Application of a truncated normal failure distribution in reliability testing

Statistical truncated normal distribution function is applied as a time-to-failure distribution function in equipment reliability estimations. Age-dependent characteristics of the truncated function provide a basis for formulating a system of high-reliability testing that effectively merges statistical, engineering, and cost considerations.

Groves, C., Jr.↗

Tools for Basic Statistical Analysis

Statistical Analysis Toolset is a collection of eight Microsoft Excel spreadsheet programs, each of which performs calculations pertaining to an aspect of statistical analysis. These programs present input and output data in user-friendly, menu-driven formats, with automatic execution. The following types of calculations are performed: Descriptive statistics are computed for a set of data x(i) (i = 1, 2, 3 . . . ) entered by the user. Normal Distribution Estimates will calculate the statistical value that corresponds to cumulative probability values, given a sample mean and standard deviation of the normal distribution. Normal Distribution from two Data Points will extend and generate a cumulative normal distribution for the user, given two data points and their associated probability values. Two programs perform two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) with no replication or generalized ANOVA for two factors with four levels and three repetitions. Linear Regression-ANOVA will curvefit data to the linear equation y=f(x) and will do an ANOVA to check its significance.

Luz, Paul L.↗

Vector wind and vector wind shear models 0 to 27 km altitude for Cape Kennedy, Florida, and Vandenberg AFB, California

The techniques are presented to derive several statistical wind models. The techniques are from the properties of the multivariate normal probability function. Assuming that the winds can be considered as bivariate normally distributed, then (1) the wind components and conditional wind components are univariate normally distributed, (2) the wind speed is Rayleigh distributed, (3) the conditional distribution of wind speed given a wind direction is Rayleigh distributed, and (4) the frequency of wind direction can be derived. All of these distributions are derived from the 5-sample parameter of wind for the bivariate normal distribution. By further assuming that the winds at two altitudes are quadravariate normally distributed, then the vector wind shear is bivariate normally distributed and the modulus of the vector wind shear is Rayleigh distributed. The conditional probability of wind component shears given a wind component is normally distributed. Examples of these and other properties of the multivariate normal probability distribution function as applied to Cape Kennedy, Florida, and Vandenberg AFB, California, wind data samples are given. A technique to develop a synthetic vector wind profile model of interest to aerospace vehicle applications is presented.

Smith, O. E.↗

On the long-tail solar wind electron velocity distribution

The role of the log-normal distribution in the description of the high-energy tail of the electron velocity distribution in the solar wind plasma is examined. Specifically, it is shown that the core-halo solar wind distribution function can be understood in terms of a simple phenomenological model of general applicability in which the core has a Maxwellian or normal distribution and the halo a log-normal distribution. In the presence of structures in the interplanetary medium capable of interacting with the electrons, the model predicts a transition at the highest velocities to a secondary halo distribution.

Shlesinger, Michael F.↗

Sample Generation for Nuclear Data

This report summarizes a NEAMS (Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation) project focused on developing a sampling capability that can handle the challenges of generating samples from nuclear cross-section data. The covariance information between energy groups tends to be very ill-conditioned and thus poses a problem using traditional methods for generated correlated samples. This report outlines a method that addresses the sample generation from cross-section matrices. The treatment allows one to assume the cross sections are distributed with a multivariate normal distribution, lognormal distribution, or truncated normal distribution.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Comparison of experimental and theoretical normal-force distributions (including Reynolds number effects) on an ogive-cylinder body at Mach number 1.98

Effects of Reynolds number and angle of attack on the pressure distribution and normal-force characteristics of a body of revolution consisting of a fineness ratio 3 ogival nose tangent to a cylindrical afterbody 7 diameters long have been determined. The test Mach number was 1.98 and the angle-of-attack range from 0 degree to 20 degrees. The Reynolds numbers, based on body diameter, were 0.15 x 10(6) and 0.45 x 10(6). The experimental results are compared with theory.

Perkins, Edward W↗

Notes on power of normality tests of error terms in regression models

Normality is one of the basic assumptions in applying statistical procedures. For example in linear regression most of the inferential procedures are based on the assumption of normality, i.e. the disturbance vector is assumed to be normally distributed. Failure to assess non-normality of the error terms may lead to incorrect results of usual statistical inference techniques such as t-test or F-test. Thus, error terms should be normally distributed in order to allow us to make exact inferences. As a consequence, normally distributed stochastic errors are necessary in order to make a not misleading inferences which explains a necessity and importance of robust tests of normality. Therefore, the aim of this contribution is to discuss normality testing of error terms in regression models. In this contribution, we introduce the general RT class of robust tests for normality, and present and discuss the trade-off between power and robustness of selected classical and robust normality tests of error terms in regression models.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Effect of EMIC Wave Normal Angle Distribution on Relativistic Electron Scattering

The flux level of outer-zone relativistic electrons (above 1 MeV) is extremely variable during geomagnetic storms, and controlled by a competition between acceleration and loss. Precipitation of these electrons due to resonant pitch-angle scattering by electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves is considered one of the major loss mechanisms. This mechanism was suggested in early theoretical studies more than three decades ago. However, direct experimental evidence of the wave role in relativistic electrons precipitation is difficult to obtain because of lack of concurrent measurements of precipitating electrons at low altitudes and the waves in a magnetically conjugate equatorial region. Recently, the data from balloon-borne X-ray instruments provided indirect but strong evidence on an efficiency of the EMIC wave induced loss for the outer-zone relativistic electrons. These observations stimulated theoretical studies that, particularly, demonstrated that EMIC wave induced pitch-angle diffusion of MeV electrons can operate in the strong diffusion limit and this mechanism can compete with relativistic electron depletion caused by the Dst effect during the initial and main phases of storm. Although an effectiveness of relativistic electron scattering by EMIC waves depends strongly on the wave spectral properties, the most favorable assumptions regarding wave characteristics has been made in all previous theoretical studies. Particularly, only quasi field-aligned EMIC waves have been considered as a driver for relativistic electron loss. At the same time, there is growing experimental and theoretical evidence that these waves can be highly oblique; EMIC wave energy can occupy not only the region of generation, i.e. the region of small wave normal angles, but also the entire wave normal angle region, and even only the region near 90 degrees. The latter can dramatically change he effectiveness of relativistic electron scattering by EMIC waves. In the present study, we calculate the pitch-angle diffusion coefficients using the typical wave normal distributions obtained from our self-consistent ring current-EMIC wave model, and try to quantify the effect of EMIC wave normal angle characteristics on relativistic electron scattering.

Gamayunov, K. V.↗

Investigating the ecological fallacy through sampling distributions constructed from finite populations

Correlation coefficients and linear regression values computed from group averages can differ from correlation coefficients and linear regression values computed using individual scores. This observation known as the ecological fallacy often assumes that all the individual scores are available from a population. In many situations, one must use a sample from the larger population. In such cases, the computed correlation coefficient and linear regression values will depend on the sample that is chosen and the underlying sampling distribution. The sampling distribution of correlation coefficients and linear regression values for group averages will be identical to the sampling distribution for individuals for normally distributed variables for random samples drawn from infinitely large continuous distributions. However, data that is acquired in practice is often acquired when sampling without replacement from a finite population. Our objective is to demonstrate through Monte Carlo simulations that the sampling distributions for correlation and linear regression will also be similar for individuals and group averages when sampling without replacement from normally distributed variables. These simulations suggest that when a random sample from a population is selected, the correlation coefficients and linear regression values computed from individual scores will not be more accurate in estimating the entire population values compared to samples when group averages are used as long as the sample size is the same.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Deep neural network improves the estimation of polygenic risk scores for breast cancer

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) estimate the genetic risk of an individual for a complex disease based on many genetic variants across the whole genome. Here, we compared a series of computational models for estimation of breast cancer PRS. A deep neural network (DNN) was found to outperform alternative machine learning techniques and established statistical algorithms, including BLUP, BayesA, and LDpred. In the test cohort with 50% prevalence, the Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUC) were 67.4% for DNN, 64.2% for BLUP, 64.5% for BayesA, and 62.4% for LDpred. BLUP, BayesA, and LPpred all generated PRS that followed a normal distribution in the case population. However, the PRS generated by DNN in the case population followed a bimodal distribution composed of two normal distributions with distinctly different means. This suggests that DNN was able to separate the case population into a high-genetic-risk case subpopulation with an average PRS significantly higher than the control population and a normal-genetic-risk case subpopulation with an average PRS similar to the control population. This allowed DNN to achieve 18.8% recall at 90% precision in the test cohort with 50% prevalence, which can be extrapolated to 65.4% recall at 20% precision in a general population with 12% prevalence. Interpretation of the DNN model identified salient variants that were assigned insignificant p values by association studies, but were important for DNN prediction. These variants may be associated with the phenotype through nonlinear relationships.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Jimsphere wind and turbulence exceedance statistic

Exceedance statistics of winds and gusts observed over Cape Kennedy with Jimsphere balloon sensors are described. Gust profiles containing positive and negative departures, from smoothed profiles, in the wavelength ranges 100-2500, 100-1900, 100-860, and 100-460 meters were computed from 1578 profiles with four 41 weight digital high pass filters. Extreme values of the square root of gust speed are normally distributed. Monthly and annual exceedance probability distributions of normalized rms gust speeds in three altitude bands (2-7, 6-11, and 9-14 km) are log-normal. The rms gust speeds are largest in the 100-2500 wavelength band between 9 and 14 km in late winter and early spring. A study of monthly and annual exceedance probabilities and the number of occurrences per kilometer of level crossings with positive slope indicates significant variability with season, altitude, and filter configuration. A decile sampling scheme is tested and an optimum approach is suggested for drawing a relatively small random sample that represents the characteristic extreme wind speeds and shears of a large parent population of Jimsphere wind profiles.

Adelfang, S. I.↗

Electron pitch-angle diffusion driven by oblique whistler-mode turbulence.

A general description of cyclotron harmonic resonant pitch-angle scattering is presented. Quasi-linear diffusion coefficients are prescribed in terms of the wave normal distribution of plasma wave energy. Numerical computations are performed for the specific case of relativistic electrons interacting with a band of low frequency whistler-mode turbulence. A parametric treatment of the wave energy distribution permits normalized diffusion coefficients to be presented graphically solely as a function of the electron pitch-angle. The diffusion coefficients generally decrease with increasing cyclotron harmonic number. Higher harmonic diffusion is insignificant at very small electron pitch-angles, but becomes increasingly important as the pitch-angle increases. One thus expected the rate of pitch-angle scattering to decrease with increasing electron energy, since the resonant value of the latter varies proportionately with harmonic number. This indicates that, in mirror-type magnet field geometrics, such as the earth's radiation belts, the diffusion losses of high energy electrons are likely to be appreciably slower than those at low energy.

Lyons, L. R.↗