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At least 37 records · Page 2

Orbital Refinement and Stellar Properties for the HD 9446, HD 43691, and HD 179079 Planetary Systems

The Transit Ephemeris Refinement and Monitoring Survey is a project that aims to detect transits of intermediate-long period planets by refining orbital parameters of the known radial velocity planets using additional data from ground-based telescopes, calculating a revised transit ephemeris for the planet, then monitoring the planet host star during the predicted transit window. Here we present the results from three systems that had high probabilities of transiting planets: HD 9446 b and c, HD 43691 b, and HD 179079 b. We provide new radial velocity (RV) measurements that are then used to improve the orbital solution for the known planets. We search the RV data for indications of additional planets in orbit and find that HD 9446 shows a strong linear trend of 4.8σ. Using the newly refined planet orbital solutions, which include a new best-fit solution for the orbital period of HD 9446 c, and an improved transit ephemerides, we found no evidence of transiting planets in the photometry for each system. Transits of HD 9446 b can be ruled out completely and transits HD 9446 c and HD 43691 b can be ruled out for impact parameters up to b = 0.5778 and b = 0.898, respectively, due to gaps in the photometry. A transit of HD 179079 b cannot be ruled out, however, due to the relatively small size of this planet compared to the large star and thus low signal to noise. We determine properties of the three host stars through spectroscopic analysis and find through photometric analysis that HD 9446 exhibits periodic variability.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Understanding the Transport Properties of Methane–Hydrogen Mixtures under the Interior Conditions of Ice Giants

Inaccuracy in our knowledge of the transport properties of relevant mixtures under planetary interior conditions is a roadblock in predicting the observable properties of planets in our solar system and beyond. In this work, we investigate methane–hydrogen mixtures using data sets obtained from density functional theory calculations for the electronic structure, combined with molecular dynamics simulations for the ions for a wide range of pressure and temperature. Hydrogen concentration significantly affects the equation of state (EOS) but has little influence on transport properties. We provide an analytical expression to model thermal EOS and transport properties as a function of hydrogen content, with the maximum deviation observed at low P–T conditions. These insights are particularly relevant to improve the planetary models and enhance our ability to predict the properties of “ice” giants and beyond.

Methane↗

Machine learning and serving of discrete field theories

A method for machine learning and serving of discrete field theories in physics is developed. The learning algorithm trains a discrete field theory from a set of observational data on a spacetime lattice, and the serving algorithm uses the learned discrete field theory to predict new observations of the field for new boundary and initial conditions. The approach of learning discrete field theories overcomes the difficulties associated with learning continuous theories by artificial intelligence. The serving algorithm of discrete field theories belongs to the family of structure-preserving geometric algorithms, which have been proven to be superior to the conventional algorithms based on discretization of differential equations. The effectiveness of the method and algorithms developed is demonstrated using the examples of nonlinear oscillations and the Kepler problem. In particular, the learning algorithm learns a discrete field theory from a set of data of planetary orbits similar to what Kepler inherited from Tycho Brahe in 1601, and the serving algorithm correctly predicts other planetary orbits, including parabolic and hyperbolic escaping orbits, of the solar system without learning or knowing Newton’s laws of motion and universal gravitation. The proposed algorithms are expected to be applicable when the effects of special relativity and general relativity are important.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Eject, crash, or survive: Using machine learning to predict orbital instability of exoplanetary systems

Astronomers throughout history, including titans like Kepler and Newton, have tackled planetary dynamics and orbital instability. Despite strides taken in research, understanding the evolution of planetary orbits remains an intricate, computationally expensive, and analytically unsolved problem. I apply machine learning classification methods to numerical simulations of planetary systems in order to predict the long-term fate of the planet - whether the planet remains in a stable orbit or not. My method uses the first 41.1 years (≤ 500 orbits) of data from a planet’s simulation to calculate 17 dynamically-motivated metrics; I trained my classifier on these features to predict a planet’s stability after 107 years. At 84.33%, my classifier was comparable in accuracy to pre-existing literature, despite using significantly less computational power than most other methods. In my research, I found that the standard deviation of eccentricity, mass ratios for neighboring planets, and semi-major axis ratio with the outer planet neighbor to be the most predictive features of instability. I propose reasons for the importance of these features, their role in planetary dynamics, as well as possible explanations for why some planets were misclassified. By understanding the important metrics of instability and reasons for misclassification, we can begin to understand more about system architectures, orbital motion and dynamics, and the formation and evolution of the exoplanetary systems. This is applicable in our own Solar System, and with exoplanet discovery missions such as TESS, this research becomes especially relevant in understanding the new exoplanetary systems we discover.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Eject, crash, or survive: Using machine learning to predict orbital instability of exoplanetary systems

Astronomers throughout history, including titans like Kepler and Newton, have tackled planetary dynamics and orbital instability. Despite strides taken in research, understanding the evolution of planetary orbits remains an intricate, computationally expensive, and analytically unsolved problem. I apply machine learning classification methods to numerical simulations of planetary systems in order to predict the long-term fate of the planet - whether the planet remains in a stable orbit or not. My method uses the first 41.1 years (≤ 500 orbits) of data from a planet’s simulation to calculate 17 dynamically-motivated metrics; I trained my classifier on these features to predict a planet’s stability after 107 years. At 84.33%, my classifier was comparable in accuracy to pre-existing literature, despite using significantly less computational power than most other methods. In my research, I found that the standard deviation of eccentricity, mass ratios for neighboring planets, and semi-major axis ratio with the outer planet neighbor to be the most predictive features of instability. I propose reasons for the importance of these features, their role in planetary dynamics, as well as possible explanations for why some planets were misclassified. By understanding the important metrics of instability and reasons for misclassification, we can begin to understand more about system architectures, orbital motion and dynamics, and the formation and evolution of the exoplanetary systems. This is applicable in our own Solar System, and with exoplanet discovery missions such as TESS, this research becomes especially relevant in understanding the new exoplanetary systems we discover.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Greigite (Fe 3 S 4 ) is thermodynamically stable: Implications for its terrestrial and planetary occurrence

Significance The new experimental thermodynamic studies of bulk, nanophase, and monoclinic high-pressure forms of greigite (Fe 3 S 4 ) confirm its stability in the Fe–S system and explain its common occurrence in sediments, magnetotactic bacteria, and other ambient temperature environments under anoxic conditions. The data disprove the commonly held hypothesis that greigite is a metastable phase. The low surface energy of greigite provides insight not only into the stability of greigite nanoparticles but also into their role in prebiotic, biological, and planetary processes. Our experimental data for the stability of the three forms of Fe 3 S 4 confirm that it could be stable on Mercury, thus contributing to Mercury’s weak magnetic field.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Architecture of TOI-561 planetary system

ABSTRACT We present new observations from CHEOPS (CHaracterising ExOPlanet Satellite) and TESS (Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite) to clarify the architecture of the planetary system hosted by the old Galactic thick disc star TOI-561. Our global analysis, which also includes previously published photometric and radial velocity data, incontrovertibly proves that TOI-561 is hosting at least four transiting planets with periods of 0.44 d (TOI-561 b), 10.8 d (TOI-561 c), 25.7 d (TOI-561 d), and 77.1 d (TOI-561 e) and a fifth non-transiting candidate, TOI-561f with a period of 433 d. The precise characterization of TOI-561’s orbital architecture is interesting since old and metal-poor thick disc stars are less likely to host ultrashort-period super-Earths like TOI-561 b. The new period of planet -e is consistent with the value obtained using radial velocity alone and is now known to be $77.14399\pm 0.00025$ d, thanks to the new CHEOPS and TESS transits. The new data allowed us to improve its radius ($R_p = 2.517 \pm 0.045\,\mathrm{ R}_{\rm{\oplus }}$ from 5 per cent to 2 per cent precision) and mass ($M_p = 12.4 \pm 1.4\, \mathrm{ M}_{\rm{\oplus }}$) estimates, implying a density of $\rho _p = 0.778 \pm 0.097\, \rho _{\rm{\oplus }}$. Thanks to recent TESS observations and the focused CHEOPS visit of the transit of TOI-561 e, a good candidate for exomoon searches, the planet’s period is finally constrained, allowing us to predict transit times through 2030 with 20-min accuracy. We present an updated version of the internal structure of the four transiting planets. We finally performed a detailed stability analysis, which confirmed the long-term stability of the outer planet TOI-561 f.

Piotto, G. (ORCID:0000000299376387)↗

The Statistics of Extended Debris Disks Measured with Gaia and Planck

Thermal emission from debris disks around stars has been measured using targeted and resolved observations. We present an alternative likelihood-based approach in which temperature maps from the Planck cosmic microwave background (CMB) survey at 857 and 545 GHz are analyzed in conjunction with stellar positions from Gaia to estimate the fraction of stars hosting disks and the thermal emission from the disks. The debris disks are not resolved (or even necessarily detected individually), but their statistical properties and the correlations with stellar properties are measured for several thousand stars. We compare our findings with higher sensitivity surveys of smaller samples of stars. For dimmer stars, in particular K and M dwarfs, we find that about 10% of stars within 80 pc have emission consistent with debris disks. We also report on 80 candidate disks, the majority of which are not previously identified. We have previously constrained the properties of Exo-Oort clouds using Planck data—with future CMB surveys, both components can be measured for different stellar types, providing a new avenue to study the outer parts of planetary systems.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Toward a Climate OSSE Framework for Satellite Mission Design

The rich history of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) does not yet include a well-established framework for using climate models. The need for a climate OSSE is triggered by the need to quantify the value of a particular measurement for reducing the uncertainty in climate predictions, which differ from numerical weather predictions in that they depend on future atmospheric composition rather than the current state of the weather. However, both weather and climate modeling communities share a need for motivating major observing system investments. Here, we outline a new framework for climate OSSEs that leverages the use of machine learning to calibrate climate model physics against existing satellite data. We demonstrate its application using NASA’s GISS-E3 model to objectively quantify the value of potential future improvements in spaceborne measurements of Earth’s planetary boundary layer. A mature climate OSSE framework should be able to quantitatively compare the ability of proposed observing system architectures to answer a climate-related question, thus offering added value throughout the mission design process, which is subject to increasingly rapid advances in instrument and satellite technology. Technical considerations include selection of observational benchmarks and climate projection metrics, approaches to pinpoint the sources of model physics uncertainty that dominate uncertainty in projections, and the use of instrument simulators. Community and policy-making considerations include the potential to interface with an established culture of model intercomparison projects and a growing need to economically assess the value-driven efficiency of social spending on Earth observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data generated during the 2018 LAPSE-RATE campaign: an introduction and overview

Unmanned aircraft systems (UASs) offer innovative capabilities for providing new perspectives on the atmosphere, and therefore atmospheric scientists are rapidly expanding their use, particularly for studying the planetary boundary layer. In support of this expansion, from 14 to 20 July 2018 the International Society for Atmospheric Research using Remotely piloted Aircraft (ISARRA) hosted a community flight week, dubbed the Lower Atmospheric Profiling Studies at Elevation – a Remotely-piloted Aircraft Team Experiment (LAPSE-RATE; de Boer et al., 2020a). This field campaign spanned a 1-week deployment to Colorado's San Luis Valley, involving over 100 students, scientists, engineers, pilots, and outreach coordinators. These groups conducted intensive field operations using unmanned aircraft and ground-based assets to develop comprehensive datasets spanning a variety of scientific objectives, including a total of nearly 1300 research flights totaling over 250 flight hours. This article introduces this campaign and lays the groundwork for a special issue on the LAPSE-RATE project. The remainder of the special issue provides detailed overviews of the datasets collected and the platforms used to collect them. All of the datasets covered by this special issue have been uploaded to a LAPSE-RATE community set up at the Zenodo data archive (https://zenodo.org/communities/lapse-rate/, last access: 3 December 2020).

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Microscopic ejecta measurements from hypervelocity impacts on aluminum and powdered regolith targets

Meteoroids and space debris pose a two-fold threat to spacecraft due to the risk of both mechanical damage from the impact and electrical damage from the impact-generated plasma, which produces electromagnetic emissions. Analysis of impact products, however, has the potential to provide useful information about planetary rings and small solar system bodies, such as asteroids and comets. Understanding the plasma dynamics and radiation mechanism is essential to addressing the impact threat and extracting science data from impacts. Charge attachment to condensed-phase debris may lead to a dusty plasma under certain conditions, so interpreting hypervelocity impacts requires knowledge of both the nature of the plasma and of the ejecta. We address the latter with measurements of the microscopic ejecta distribution produced by light gas gun impacts on solid aluminum and powdered regolith simulant targets. We examine both the size and shape of the ejecta using thin-film witness plates and find that the size distributions of microscopic ejecta follow power laws. Observations from the powdered regolith simulant match well with disruption experiments of solid basalt, while measurements from the aluminum impacts diverge from extrapolations based on studies of macroscopic debris. Analysis of the ejecta shape shows a transition from smooth to irregularly shaped ejecta at the material grain size, and the shape of debris may provide insight on the phase of the ejected material. Finally, based on our results, we predict a significant number of secondary impacts on plasma sensors due to ejecta, even at considerable distance from the target, supporting the hypothesis that charged dust affects plasma measurements in the ejecta curtain.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Wind and Weather Variability within the Californian Offshore Wind Energy Areas

Weather variability over the Northeast Pacific (NEP) region and its influence on wind resources within the Californian offshore wind energy areas (WEAs) at Humboldt and Morro Bay are characterized using 20-years reanalysis model and satellite data. The hub-height (180 m) winds at both locations are predominantly northwesterly driven by the NEP high pressure system, with strong coastal gradients in surface pressure, fluxes, planetary boundary layer (PBL) depths and cloudiness. These sharp coastal gradients and strong annual cycles of temperature and moisture advections pose potential challenges in accurately modeling the local wind resource. Hub-height wind speeds and power capacity factors significantly vary for different regimes of PBL depths, surface fluxes and rain area fractions. This highlights the importance of studying the physical mechanisms driving these weather regimes, hence our analysis of how large-scale NEP weather variability drives the local meteorology at the WEAs. Furthermore, at both WEAs, PBL tops and cloud boundaries intersect the rotor layer (80-280 m) more than 30% and 20% of the time, respectively. While PBL depths significantly modulates hub-height winds and power, cloud boundaries do not have a similar impact, likely due to reanalysis errors in simulating cloud boundaries accurately. These findings underscore the challenges in deploying tall wind turbines in shallow cloudy boundary layers, where the interaction between clouds, precipitation, and atmospheric layers can impact turbine efficiency. As turbines grow taller and are deployed in more complex meteorological conditions, understanding these interactions is crucial for improving wind power forecasting and optimizing energy production in coastal regions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A Search for L4 Earth Trojan Asteroids Using a Novel Track-before-detect Multiepoch Pipeline

We report Earth Trojan asteroids are an important but elusive population that co-orbit with Earth at the L4 and L5 Lagrange points. There is only one known, but a large population is theoretically stable and could provide insight into our solar system’s past and present, as well as planetary defense. In this paper, we present the results of an Earth Trojan survey that uses a novel shift-and-stack detection method on 2 nights of data from the Dark Energy Camera. We find no new Earth Trojan asteroids. We calculate an upper limit on the population that is consistent with previous searches despite much less sky coverage. Additionally, we elaborate on previous upper-limit calculations using current asteroid population statistics and an extensive asteroid simulation to provide the most up-to-date population constraints. We find an L4 Earth Trojan population of N ET < 1 for H = 13.93, N ET < 10 for H = 16, and N ET < 938 for H = 22.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Facilitating better and faster simulations of aerosol-cloud interactions in Earth system models

Focal Area(s): 1. Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components; the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising a hierarchy of models. 2. Insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI. Science Challenge: One major challenge that Earth system models (ESMs) face in providing credible prediction of the Earth system and its water cycle characteristics (e.g., mean state, variability, and extreme events) is to accurately simulate aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI). The physical, chemical, and dynamical processes affecting ACI are extremely complex and they range from nanoscale to planetary scale. In each model development cycle, scientists spend significant efforts investigating model deficiencies and uncertainties associated with aerosols (e.g., emissions, chemical processes, aerosol microphysics, and transport) and clouds (e.g., macrophysics, microphysics, turbulence, and large-scale circulation) in order to develop improved treatments. However, despite decades of active research, ACI is still a major source of uncertainty in climate projections, even though great progress has been made. Specific scientific challenges include: (i) Parameterizations are developed based on limited data; (ii) The complexity of a parameterization required for accurate predictions is not understood; (iii) Incomplete and unknown physics leads to errors in the fully coupled Earth system; and (iv) Complex physics is computationally too expensive to employ in ESMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

TESS Hunt for Young and Maturing Exoplanets (THYME). IV. Three Small Planets Orbiting a 120 Myr Old Star in the Pisces–Eridanus Stream

Young exoplanets can offer insight into the evolution of planetary atmospheres, compositions, and architectures. We present the discovery of the young planetary system TOI 451 (TIC 257605131, Gaia DR2 4844691297067063424). TOI 451 is a member of the 120 Myr old Pisces–Eridanus stream (Psc–Eri). We confirm membership in the stream with its kinematics, its lithium abundance, and the rotation and UV excesses of both TOI 451 and its wide-binary companion, TOI 451 B (itself likely an M-dwarf binary). We identified three candidate planets transiting in the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite data and followed up the signals with photometry from Spitzer and ground-based telescopes. The system comprises three validated planets at periods of 1.9, 9.2, and 16 days, with radii of 1.9, 3.1, and 4.1 R {sub ⨂}, respectively. The host star is near-solar mass with V = 11.0 and H = 9.3 and displays an infrared excess indicative of a debris disk. The planets offer excellent prospects for transmission spectroscopy with the Hubble Space Telescope and the James Webb Space Telescope, providing the opportunity to study planetary atmospheres that may still be in the process of evolving.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Dynamical Mass Estimates of the β Pictoris Planetary System through Gaussian Process Stellar Activity Modeling

Nearly 15 yr of radial velocity (RV) monitoring and direct imaging enabled the detection of two giant planets orbiting the young, nearby star β Pictoris. The δ Scuti pulsations of the star, which overwhelm planetary signals, need to be carefully suppressed. In this work, we independently revisit the analysis of the RV data following a different approach than available in the literature to model the activity of the star. We show that a Gaussian process (GP) with a stochastically driven damped harmonic oscillator kernel can model the δ Scuti pulsations. It provides similar results to parametric models but with a simpler framework, using only three hyperparameters. It also enables us to model poorly sampled RV data that were excluded from previous analyses, hence extending the RV baseline by nearly five years. Altogether, the orbit and mass of both planets can be constrained from RV only, which was not possible with the parametric modeling. To characterize the system more accurately, we also perform a joint fit of all available relative astrometry and RV data. Our orbital solutions for β Pic b favor a low eccentricity of 0.029$_{−0.024}^{+0.061}$ and a relatively short period of 21.1$_{−0.8}^{+2.0}$ yr. The orbit of β Pic c is eccentric with 0.206$_{−0.063}^{+0.074}$ with a period of 3.36 ± 0.03 yr. We find model-independent masses of 11.7 ± 1.4 and 8.5 ± 0.5 M Jup for β Pic b and c, respectively, assuming coplanarity. The mass of β Pic b is consistent with the hottest start evolutionary models, at an age of 25 ± 3 Myr. A direct detection of β Pic c would provide a second calibration measurement in a coeval system.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

TRACER-Coastal Urban Boundary-Layer Interactions with Convection (TRACER-CUBIC) Field Campaign Report

To better understand the complicated web of processes governing convective cloud life cycle and aerosol-convection interactions, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility supported deployment of a variety of advanced atmospheric measurement systems to the greater Houston, Texas, area from 1 October 2021 to 30 September 2022 as part of the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER). Houston was selected as a study area because isolated convection and a variety of aerosol conditions are common in this region. This one-year ARM Mobile Facility (AMF) deployment featured a four-month intensive operational period (IOP) during summer 2022 (1 June–30 September). The ARM instrumentation was deployed at three sites along an east-west transect from La Porte, Texas to an ancillary site in a less-polluted rural region southwest of downtown Houston (Figure 1). At the La Porte Site, which is located near the Houston ship channel in an area that experiences significant pollution, the first ARM Mobile Facility (AMF1) was deployed. During the IOP, the ARM tethered balloon system (TBS) operated at the ancillary site. The second-generation C-Band Scanning ARM Precipitation Radar (CSAPR) operated near Pearland, Texas, roughly halfway between the Laporte and ancillary sites. As part of the TRACER- Coastal Urban Boundary-Layer Interactions with Convection (CUBIC) project, three boundary-layer profiling systems) were deployed along a north-south transect spanning from the University of Houston Coastal Center to the Aldine site north of downtown Houston (also blue dot in Figure 1) during the TRACER IOP. These systems included the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Severe Storms Laboratory CLAMPS2 (C2), which was deployed at the UHCC, the University of Wisconsin SPARC, which was deployed at the ARM CSAPR site near Pearland (orange diamond in middle of map in Figure 1), and the University of Oklahoma CLAMPS1 (C1), which was deployed at Aldine. These three systems have been successfully operated in various field campaigns, providing data sets that collectively offer new insights into atmospheric-boundary-layer (ABL) processes, sea-breeze (SB) circulations, and convection initiation (CI). For the TRACER IOP window, these systems ran continuously between 1 June and 26 September, 2022. Due to commitments to NOAA projects, the Doppler lidar at the UHCC site was not available until 24 June 2022. The CLAMPS and SPARC profiling systems are self-contained platforms that have benefited from several years of development and deployment. Instruments and data processing were maintained remotely, which made the 4-month deployment for the TRACER-CUBIC IOP period possible. The same basic instrument configuration comprises each system: a scanning Doppler wind lidar for flow characterization and passive profiler(s) for characterizing planetary-boundary-layer (PBL) thermodynamic properties. Each platform includes a Halo Streamline Doppler wind lidar, an Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI), and a surface meteorology station. CLAMPS1 and CLAMPS2 each also include a microwave radiometer (MWR, Figure 1d). The TRACER-CUBIC hypotheses included (i) Interactions of SB and urban circulations and how they affect the PBL structure in the Houston environment, causing spatially (horizontally and vertically) and temporally highly variable flow patterns, (ii) heat, moisture, and aerosol transport and mixing depend on these flow dynamics, and (iii) an improved understanding of the flow patterns and PBL structure are critical for investigating the processes leading to CI. To test these hypotheses, the project aimed at (i) characterizing SB circulations and their impacts on the diurnal evolution of the structure of the ABL, (ii) studying the evolution of Houston’s complex urban boundary layer, and (iii) identifying effects of urban-induced circulations on pre-convective environments. TRACER-CUBIC observations generally provide good coverage during the summer IOP. Initial screening of the data indicates a good number of cases with bay-breeze (BB) and/or SB signatures, local CI, and interesting boundary-layer features such as strong nocturnal low-level jets (LLJs, Table 1). The numbers listed in rows 3-5 in this table will be further updated as part of ongoing in-depth analyses and systematic identification of local circulations and CI events. More detailed information about the data availability and quality for each instrument is provided in the “readme” files that were submitted to the ARM Data Center along with each archived data sets. These “readme” files also provide instrument descriptions, information about the data collection and processing procedures, data formats, and any additional information relevant for further data analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗