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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Transfer Operator Framework for Earth System Predictability and Water Cycle Extremes

For chaotic dynamical systems, nonlinear instabilities lead to exponentially divergent trajectories in the evolution of system states. Unless a simulation is initialized with an infinite-precision snapshot of the state of the true system and all known physical effects that go into its evolution are directly computed, the future state predicted by the simulation will quickly diverge from that of the true system. Moreover, the Earth system is highly structured and contains localized coherent structures that are particularly important to predict. Predicting extreme events associated with coherent structures, like hurricanes and blocking events, is crucial for understanding the effects of global warming on the water cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Transfer Operator Framework for Earth System Predictability and Water Cycle Extremes

For chaotic dynamical systems, nonlinear instabilities lead to exponentially divergent trajectories in the evolution of system states. Unless a simulation is initialized with an infinite-precision snapshot of the state of the true system and all known physical effects that go into its evolution are directly computed, the future state predicted by the simulation will quickly diverge from that of the true system. Moreover, the Earth system is highly structured and contains localized coherent structures that are particularly important to predict. Predicting extreme events associated with coherent structures, like hurricanes and blocking events, is crucial for understanding the effects of global warming on the water cycle.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

The WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System to Provide Solar Irradiance Probabilistic Forecasts

In this study, we introduce the recently developed WRF-Solar Ensemble System (WRF-Solar EPS) and a calibration method. The performances of forecast models are evaluated using the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) observational analysis for day-ahead solar irradiance predictions. The results demonstrate that the ensemble forecast improves the quality of the forecasts by taking into account the uncertainty of each ensemble member. The Analog Ensemble (AnEn) calibration contributed to the reduction of positive bias and an overall improvement in the probabilistic attributes such as reliability and statistical consistency.

analog ensemble↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Grand Challenge "Uncertainty Project" to Accelerate Advances in Earth System Predictability: AI-Enabled Concepts and Applications

This proposal is emerging from GISS ModelE3 ESM development in the area of cloud physics, so we begin with an example of research needs/gaps from that work. Here, some of our greatest development concerns arise where we lack fundamental process-level understanding, as in ice formation. Namely, it is currently unclear what is the main process that is forming the majority of ice crystals in commonly occurring convection, apparently via secondary ice production at warm temperatures. We are keenly awaiting laboratory data for candidate mechanisms, which is not yet in hand to crucially establish their efficiency. Our progress is also hampered by a lack of uncertainty characterization in currently available measurements of ice crystal number size distributions. Furthermore, the same multiplication process may be responsible for a majority of ice crystals in many extratropical mixed-phase clouds, whose variable representation in CMIP6 ESMs may be a leading cause of differences in cloud phase feedback and ECS. Yet we have been required to deliver an ESM with the cloud physics knowledge at hand. The proposed grand challenge project is AI-enabled via application of machine learning (ML) to climate model and observational data streams (focal area 3), and applications include AI-guided observing system design and model/component/parameterization selection (areas 1 and 2). The project is structurally agnostic as to whether model or observing system components use AI approaches or not, but uncertainties must be estimated and propagatable in both.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting System Response at Unmeasured Locations

Traditional techniques to derive dynamic specification for components have a great deal of uncertainty. One of the major sources of uncertainty is that the number of response measurements in the operational system environment is insufficient to determine the component motion. This inadequacy is due to logistical limitations for data recording in field testing and space limitations for accelerometers, strain gages and associated wiring. Available measurements are often some distance from the component and therefore do not represent component motion. Typical straight-line envelopes of these unrepresentative measurements guarantee an increase in the uncertainty. In this paper multiple methods are attempted to expand a sparse set of field test measurements on a system to responses of interest that cannot be measured in the field due to the limitations. Proof of concept is demonstrated on the Modal Analysis Test Vehicle (MATV). The responses of interest, known as “truth responses”, are measured in a system vibration environment along with an optimized sparse set of 30 field responses. Methods to expand the field responses to the truth responses are demonstrated by comparing the acceleration spectral density of the expanded response to the measured response. Two methods utilize a validated finite element model of the MATV. One is developed from purely experiment based frequency response functions of a laboratory pre-test. Finally, these approaches are designed to drastically reduce the uncertainty of the component in-service motion as a basis for developing specifications that are guaranteed to be conservative with a known (instead of unknown) conservatism.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Toward efficient elastocaloric systems: Predicting material thermal properties with high fidelity

A critical need to accurately model thermal behaviors of materials that exhibit strong elastocaloric effects, including predicting the effects themselves at varying stresses and temperatures, has been addressed using a simple and versatile physics-based approach. The key factor leading to the high precision is approximating the underlying elastic phase transition as a smooth modification of lattice entropy between coexisting phases. Once the phase transformation entropy is modeled to match experimentally measured strain as a function of temperature and applied stress, estimating the heat capacity, entropy, and isothermal entropy and adiabatic temperature changes in temperature-stress coordinates becomes straightforward. This approach provides insight into how thermal properties of elastocaloric materials vary through the transition based on strain measurements that are simple to perform and interpret. In addition to aiding in the rapid evaluation of new and existing elastocaloric materials, this advance is expected to prove invaluable for accurate heat transfer modeling aimed at designing efficient regenerative elastocaloric cooling devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Real-time Canister Welding Health Monitoring and Prediction System for Spent Fuel Dry Storage

In this report, the salt mist corrosion testing at controlled temperature was carried out successfully on 304L SS submerged arc welded coupons by Unifog Dispersion Tower at ORNL. Corrosion in-situ monitoring system from Intelligent Automation, Inc. (IAI) was setup in the corrosion test and running smoothly to record signals during the corrosion test. Parts and device selection, sensors attachment, and experimental procedures are discussed. There wasn’t any visible corrosion or crack propagation on the weld coupon after about a month of corrosion testing.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

In Situ Inference for Earth System Predictability

An understanding of future evolution in precipitation extremes is critical to numerous DOE mission questions. Extreme events are by nature short time-scale events that are difficult to diagnose in available model data. Accurate modeling of extreme events necessarily requires high spatial resolution at the storm scale locally. However, the environment in which storms grow is dependent on global, remote, processes. These complex spatiotemporal relationships are impossible to diagnose at resolutions required to accurately model storms responsible for extreme precipitation. At exascale, climate simulations will produce results at fine enough resolution to investigate these relationships. However, the resulting data from these simulations will be far too large to save for post-simulation analysis. We advocate for fitting statistical models inside the simulations as they run, a context known as in situ, which will facilitate scientific investigations using the full fine-scale data stream. Figure 1 shows an example of the type of model we could consider, a Bayesian hierarchical spatial regression model. Precipitation extremes at each grid cell are modeled using extreme value distributions. Since extremes are rare, fitting models to individual grid cells can result in high variance and poor estimates. Instead, the model can be made more robust by smoothing the parameters of the extreme value model across space. Additionally, the parameters themselves can be functionally linked to other variables elsewhere in the simulation. Thus, we can use the fine-scale data to build more robust models for extremes that link extreme behavior to other climate patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

In Situ Inference for Earth System Predictability

Focal Area: Focal Area 3: Insight gleaned from complex simulated data using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI. Science Challenge: An understanding of future evolution in precipitation extremes is critical to numerous DOE mission questions. Extreme events are by nature short time-scale events that are difficult to diagnose in available model data. Accurate modeling of extreme events necessarily requires high spatial resolution at the storm scale locally. However, the environment in which storms grow is dependent on global, remote, processes. These complex spatiotemporal relationships are impossible to diagnose at resolutions required to accurately model storms responsible for extreme precipitation. At exascale, climate simulations will produce results at fine enough resolution to investigate these relationships. However, the resulting data from these simulations will be far too large to save for post-simulation analysis. We advocate for fitting statistical models inside the simulations as they run, a context known as in situ, which will facilitate scientific investigations using the full fine-scale data stream. Figure 1 shows an example of the type of model we could consider, a Bayesian hierarchical spatial regression model. Precipitation extremes at each grid cell are modeled using extreme value distributions. Since extremes are rare, fitting models to individual grid cells can result in high variance and poor estimates. Instead, the model can be made more robust by smoothing the parameters of the extreme value model across space. Additionally, the parameters themselves can be functionally linked to other variables elsewhere in the simulation. Thus, we can use the fine-scale data to build more robust models for extremes that link extreme behavior to other climate patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integration of AI/ML with Data Assimilation for Earth System Prediction

Focal Area(s): Development of dynamically consistent AI/ML methods that can integrate with the data assimilation cycle to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of state estimation and prediction at short to medium range forecast horizons. Science Challenge: This white paper addresses a first step toward complete integration of AI/ML and DA. Here, we address model emulation and its application to simple coupled atmosphere-ocean dynamics for use in data assimilation applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Filter replacement lifetime prediction

Systems for predicting a filter lifetime. A filter monitoring system includes a filter effectiveness history based on contaminant sensor information associated with a filter received from one or more contaminant sensors. A lifetime module is configured to determine a rate of filter consumption based on the filter effectiveness history and to determine a remaining filter lifetime based on the determined rate of filter consumption.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

IDENTIFICATION OF POTENTIAL SUPERCONDUCTOR QUENCH PRECURSORS USING FREQUENCY DOMAIN FEATURE ANALYSIS

Superconducting magnets are important pieces of technology in the world of particle accelerators, allowing researchers to study atomic and subatomic phenomena, among other things. In some instances, superconductors can lose this non-resistive property in a phenomenon known as quenching, which can cause damage to the magnets. This potential danger prompts the introduction of systems to predict when a quench is imminent; one such implementation is through the use of acoustic sensors that detect vibrations within the magnet. Within these acoustic sensor signals, significantly above-noise disturbances (referred to as ”events”) can be identified. Our research applies the statistical framework of a permutation test to features calculated from the power spectral density (PSD) to distinguish between events far from the quench at the end of the signal to events at the start of the signal. We found that dividing the PSD into frequency bands produced a feature capable of distinguishing between events early in the signal and late in the signal leading up the quench, providing a promising starting place for future quench prediction systems.

Roehrig, Benjamin [Northern Illinois U.]↗
DOE OSTI2023

Probabilistic Physics-Informed Graph Convolutional Network for Active Distribution System Voltage Prediction

Here this letter proposes a novel data-driven probabilistic physics-informed graph convolutional network (GCN) for active distribution system voltage prediction with PVs and EVs. It leverages both measurements and network topology to accurately and efficiently predict node voltages without the need for an accurate distribution system power flow model. The dropout-enabled Bayesian inference is developed to achieve uncertainty quantification of the voltage prediction. Thanks to the network model embedding, it also has robustness against topology changes, a key difference with existing machine learning-based approaches. Comparison results with other state-of-the-art machine learning methods on a realistic 759-node distribution system demonstrate that the proposed method can achieve better accuracy and robustness under different scenarios.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying spectral albedo effects on bifacial photovoltaic module measurements and system model predictions

We provide a comprehensive analysis of the effect of spectral albedo on photovoltaic (PV) module measurements and system model predictions. We demonstrate how to account for albedo in indoor bifacial device measurements by adjusting the applied irradiance using the scaled rear irradiance method, exemplified on fabricated silicon heterojunction (SHJ) modules. System model performance is studied using a detailed 3D finite-element model, DUET, for fixed-tilt and horizontal single-axis tracked (SAT) arrays between 15 and 75°N. Spectral effects cause variations in measured SHJ module short-circuit current up to 2% and efficiency variation up to 0.3% abs. We further demonstrate that rear-side spectral mismatch factors (SMMs) resulting from including or omitting spectral albedo in PV system modeling vary between ±13%, while total (front+rear) SMMs vary up to 3%, depending on the deployment configuration and latitude. SAT array SMMs are weakly correlated with latitude, while fixed-tilt array SMMs increase with latitude, driven by an increasing proportion of ground-reflected light on the front-side of modules. Ground-reflections can constitute between 2% and 32% of total incident module irradiance, with notably high (>10%) contributions for fixed-tilt arrays at high latitude. Effects of spectral albedo are most significant for: (1) fixed-tilt deployments at high latitudes, (2) wide bandgap technologies such as perovskite and cadmium telluride cells, (3) albedos which vary steeply over the technology's absorption range, and (4) high albedo ground covers. Overall, we demonstrate that omitting spectral albedo effects can result in PV measurement and system-level modeling uncertainties on the order of several percent in these cases.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗