Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “rapid adjustments”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 37 records · Page 2

Microwave-assisted synthesis of mixed-linker covalent organic frameworks enabling tunable and ultrahigh iodine capture

The use of covalent organic frameworks (COFs) for hazardous radioiodine capture has been highly sought after recently. However, the synthesis of high-performance COF adsorbents while circumventing the limitations of traditional solvothermal methods remains largely unexplored. Herein, we for the first time combine microwave-assisted synthesis and mixed-linker strategy to fabricate multivariate COF adsorbents (X% OMe-TFB-BD COFs, X% = 0, 33, 50, 67, and 100 mol%) with varying ratios of benzidine (BD) and 3,3'-dimethoxylbenzidine (BD-OMe) linkers in a rapid and facile manner. Adjusting the BD-OMe/BD mole ratios has led to distinct variations in density, crystallinity, porosity, morphology, and thermal/chemical stability of the resultant COFs, which empowered fine-tuning of the adsorption performance towards static iodine vapor. Remarkably, the 50% OMe-TFB-BD COF exhibited an ultrahigh iodine adsorption capability of 8.2 g g –1 , surpassing those of single-component COFs, mixed-linker COFs with other methoxy content, physically blended mixtures, and most existing COF adsorbents. Moreover, 50% OMe-TFB-BD COF was recyclable seven times without obvious loss in its adsorption capacity. Finally, this work underscores the substantial potential of microwave-assisted mixed-linker strategy as a viable approach for developing multivariate COFs with shortened reaction times, precisely tailored pore environment, and tunable sorption properties, which are of considerable promise for environmental remediation and other niche applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Adaptive Online Multivariate Signal Extraction With Locally Weighted Robust Polynomial Regression

High-frequency, multivariate data collected in real-time and used to control or make decisions regarding a process’ operation often contain some noise and outliers. Thus, a method to extract the signal is needed in order to reduce the number and magnitude of control-based adjustments that are implemented. Such a method must be (i) online, depending only on past and current observations; (ii) fast, producing a smooth value more quickly than the measurement frequency; (iii) robust, ignoring brief bursts of erroneously measured values; (iv) multivariate, ignoring observations that are jointly unusual; (v) adaptive, adjusting to periods of rapid fluctuation in the signal versus periods of stability; and (vi) purely data-driven, not incorporating any information about the process from which the data are collected. Most existing methods are only able to address a subset of these six features. Furthermore, we also require the method to be nonlinear, providing a local nonlinear estimate of the signal. In this work, we propose a novel, real-time signal extraction method based on a local, robust polynomial fit. We demonstrate the performance of our method compared to a state-of-the-art competitor through simulation. For illustration, the methodology is applied to data collected from a reverse osmosis water treatment process.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Rapidity distributions of Z = 1 isotopes and the nuclear symmetry energy from Sn+Sn collisions with radioactive beams at 270 MeV/nucleon

The rapidity distributions of hydrogen isotopes emitted from central collisions of neutron-rich 132 Sn+ 124 Sn and neutron-deficient 108 Sn+ 112 Sn systems at 270 MeV/nucleon were investigated at RIKEN-RIBF. The data are compared with antisymmetrized molecular dynamics (AMD) calculations and the rapidity distributions can be reproduced after adjusting the in-medium nucleon-nucleon cross sections. The double ratios between the two reaction systems taken for the relative yields of deuteron to proton (d/p) and triton to proton (t/p) are further examined in the midrapidity domain, where the adjustments in the AMD calculations do not affect much on them. The d/p and t/p double ratios at midrapidity agree well with the ratio of the system neutron numbers and its squared value, respectively, and the rapidity dependence of these double ratios is consistent with a picture of partial mixing of colliding nuclei. By comparing with the AMD model which shows a strong symmetry energy dependence of the t/p double ratio, the experimental result in the midrapidity domain favors the calculation with a symmetry-energy slope parameter around L = 46 MeV rather than L = 108 MeV.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Structural Design of Bismuth Telluride Nanoplates through Process Variables

Binary pnictogen chalcogen compounds, primarily bismuth tellurides and selenides, are of great interest due to their applications in emerging quantum devices, as well as thermoelectric generators. The performance of bismuth telluride in these roles depends on its structure at the nanoscale, particularly the size, shape, and crystallinity of its nanocrystalline forms. However, current methods for controlling these features are often slow, inconsistent, or difficult to scale. Here, we demonstrate that through a solvothermal synthesis and hot injection process, precise control over the morphology of bismuth telluride nanoplates is possible with independent tuning of process variables, such as temperature and reaction time. We find that the nanoplate shape and internal porosity vary systematically with synthesis temperature and that the same morphological outcomes can be rapidly achieved at a fixed temperature by adjusting reaction duration. These results reveal that both the temperature and time can independently direct bismuth telluride morphological features, allowing for rapid, tunable synthesis strategies. Our approach offers a scalable framework, not only for bismuth telluride but also for related layered chalcogenides used in energy harvesting and quantum technologies.

Ackley, Jordan [Boise State Univ., ID (United Stat↗

Real-Time Sea State Estimation for Wave Energy Converter Control via Machine Learning

Wave energy converters (WECs) harness the untapped power of ocean waves to generate renewable energy, offering a promising solution to sustainable energy. An optimal WEC control strategy is essential to maximize power capture that dynamically adjusts system parameters in response to rapidly changing sea states. This study presents a novel control approach that leverages neural networks to estimate sea states from onboard WEC measurements such as position, velocity, and force. Using a point absorber WEC device as a test platform, our proposed approach estimates sea states in real-time and subsequently adjusts PID controller gains to maximize energy extraction. Simulation results across diverse sea conditions demonstrate that our strategy eliminates the need for external wave monitoring equipment while maintaining power capture efficiency. The results show that our neural network-based control technique can improve power capture by 25.6% while significantly reducing system complexity. This approach offers a practical alternative for WEC deployments where direct wave measurements are either infeasible or cost prohibitive.

PIDcontrol↗

Dielectric Barrier Discharge Electrothermal Heating and Additive Manufacturing of Thermoset Parts

Additive manufacturing of thermosets requires a mechanism for solidifying deposited layers in order to prevent part collapse. To accomplish this, non‐equilibrium plasma is proposed for its ability to target, heat, and cure printed thermosetting resin. Non‐equilibrium plasmas have not been used for the curing of liquid thermoset composites, and so their impact on an uncured resin is unknown. Here this work investigates the mechanism through which dielectric barrier discharge (DBD) heats an epoxy/carbon nanotube (CNT) composite under atmospheric conditions. Plasma applied to resin surfaces is found to cause rapid heating, with heating rate controlled by adjusting the applied power. Heating is localized to within the top 0.5 mm of the sample surface and maximum temperature is found to depend on sample conductivity, indicating the heating reaction occurs through a combination of electron conduction and ion bombardment. Characterization of composites cured using plasma shows oxidation and roughening of the surface. Based on the heating and surface studies, several demonstrative prints are performed using in situ plasma curing. This work shows the potential of DBD plasma to rapidly heat liquid substrates and demonstrates how plasma curing expands the capability of existing direct ink write (DIW) printer technologies.

3D printing↗

Accelerating Engineered Microbe Optimization through Machine Learning and Multi-Omics Datasets [Abstract]

The Agile Biofoundry (ABF) is a multi-national lab consortium funded by the DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office that has developed a biofoundry enabling the rapid deployment of bioproducts into the market. The ABF is a flexible platform that can adjust to the needs of numerous government, academic and industrial partners, thus enabling them to rapidly develop and optimize the production of a wide range of bioproducts. To demonstrate this capability, three ABF labs (NTESS, LBNL, and PNNL) have collaborated with the biomanufacturer Lygos, Inc. to use the ABF to demonstrate a high-throughput Design-Build-Test-Learn (DBTL) engineering cycle incorporating multi-omics analysis and machine learning with best in industry cycle times.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A multiomics mass spectrometry workflow for fast and comprehensive strain optimization (Abstract CRADA 726 )

The Agile Biofoundry (ABF) is a multi-national lab consortium funded by the DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office that has developed a biofoundry that enables the rapid deployment of bioproducts into the market. The ABF is a flexible platform that can adjust to the needs of numerous government, academic and industrial partners, thus enabling them to rapidly develop and optimize the production of a wide range of bioproducts. To enhance this capability, PNNL and Agilent Technologies are collaborating to expand and demonstrate a prototype system that processes hundreds of samples per day by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry-based untargeted and targeted methods, and artificial intelligence software for multiomics applications, including metabolomics, lipidomics and proteomics.

Bilbao, Aivett (ORCID:0000000329858249)↗

Graph-based design of irregular metamaterials

In the field of metamaterial research, random structures offer a novel and less conventional approach compared to traditional periodic designs. Designing random metamaterials is challenging when it comes to ensuring intercon- nectivity, which is essential for manufacturability. This study introduces an innovative framework for generating random metamaterials using graph al- gorithms, ensuring connectivity and adaptability across various base shapes, including cylinders, triangles, pyramids, and cubes. By employing graph algorithms, our framework enhances the intuitiveness and efficiency of de- sign representation and manipulation, streamlining the design process. The framework generates families of designs that exhibit a wide range of prop- erty magnitudes that can be adjusted intuitively by modifying the input parameters. The rapid design process allows many designs to be generated, offering the user a multitude of solutions around the target property range. The designs can be effectively implemented in various fields and subjected to diverse analytical studies, including static, dynamic, and eigenfrequency assessments. We illustrate computational results for two key properties (stiff- ness and acoustic impedance), showcasing the method’s effectiveness through examples ranging from rod-based to cube-based designs. Here, the framework not only advances metamaterial research but also creates new opportunities for innovation in fields requiring customized material properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Frhodo: A program for simulating chemical kinetic measurements and optimizing kinetic mechanisms

Chemical kinetic simulations are frequently used to extract kinetic and mechanistic information from experimental data by fitting simulations to the data. For simple systems of consecutive single channel reactions this is a relatively straightforward task. However, as the complexity of the system increases and particularly for systems involving competitive multi-channel reactions manually optimizing a mechanism to obtain the best fits to a range of experimental data quickly becomes a time-intensive and challenging process, especially when rate coefficients have pressure and temperature dependencies. There is considerable potential for exploiting automated optimization methods to rapidly screen reaction mechanisms and optimize the fit by adjusting rate coefficients within well-defined constraints. A new chemical kinetics simulation program, Frhodo, has been developed for this purpose. The program allows either manual simulation of individual experiments or fully automated optimization against a range of experimental data by adjusting user selected reactions within user defined constraints. Frhodo incorporates machine learning-based optimization routines that work by either minimizing standardized residuals or through Bayesian parameter estimation. Frhodo's optimization capabilities are demonstrated by reexamining two previously studied systems of relevance to combustion. Dissociation of diacetyl followed by recombination of methyl radicals is an example of a sequence of single channel, consecutive reactions. Pyrolysis of 2-methyl furan exemplifies multi-channel, unimolecular reactions that are often encountered and have temperature and pressure dependencies in the rate coefficients of the channels and branching ratios between them. For both systems the optimization routines resulted in solutions similar to the original studies. Finally, comments are made on the strengths and limitations of the approach.

0D simulation↗

Deployment of Dynamic Neural Network Optimization to Minimize Heat Rate During Ramping for Coal Power Plants (Final Technical Report)

Much success was achieved throughout the course of this project. A successful implementation of Dynamic Neural Network Optimization (D-NNO) was coupled with Adaptive Predictive Controls (APC) and a novel hardware installation comprised of an advanced sensor network (ASN) measuring mass-weighted averages of flue gas constituents above the horizontal superheater of a coal-fired utility boiler. From 2019 through 2023 (including an extension due to COVID delays), the team was able to prototype, evaluate, deploy, iterate, and ultimately finalize an advanced closed-loop control D-NNO system which demonstrated the ability to: •improve unit efficiency ~2.0% relative to unoptimized operation (represented as total fuel fired per MWh generated) •improve unit NOx emission rates 10%+ beyond static optimization baselines •improve unit temperature stability as much as 58% and on average 12% •improve operating load stability as much as 35% The culmination of this project has generated an advanced methodology of deploying specially designed recurrent neural networks (long short-term memory, gated recurrent unit, encoder-decoder networks, transformers, etc.), customized trajectory planning and closed-loop optimization modules capable of adapting to live electric grid responses and demands, self-tuning and adaptive expert controls constantly adjusting prediction parameters to real-time unit behavior, and a hardware/software package able to reliably calculate net unit heat rate (NUHR) in real-time using flue gas constituents, machine learning, and known combustion relationships. Through this real-time NUHR value, immediate feedback on system adjustments relative to operating efficiency was available, allowing for rapid improvements to system performance. In addition to development and deployment of the advanced D-NNO system, the approach methodology has been readily commercialized through the project platform Griffin Open Systems, LLC, the D-NNO software platform host. Similar methodologies to those developed by this project have already been deployed at 5 other units across the United States, with another 6 implementations scheduled, and more expected. Over the course of the project, multiple academic papers were submitted and accepted for publication within esteemed academic journals, and PhD students were trained and graduated, as well as undergraduate students becoming involved and participating to project objectives.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Nonequilibrium spherulitic magnetite in the Ryugu samples

Here, we have investigated several particles collected during each of two touchdowns of the Hayabusa2 spacecraft at the surface of the C-type asteroid 162173 Ryugu using various electron microscope techniques. Our detailed transmission electron microscopy study shows the presence of magnetite with various morphologies coexisting in close proximity. This is characteristic of CI chondrite-like materials and consistent with the mineral assemblages and compositions in the Ryugu parent body. We describe the microstructural characteristics of magnetite with different morphologies, which could have resulted from the chemical conditions (growth vs. diffusion rate) during their formation. Furthermore, we describe the presence of magnetites with a spherulitic structure composed of individual radiating fibers that are characterized by pervasive, homogeneously distributed euhedral to subhedral pores that have not been described in previous chondrite studies. This particular spherulitic structure is consistent with crystallization under nonequilibrium conditions. Additionally, the presence of a high density of defects within the magnetite fibers, the high surface/volume ratio of this morphology, and the presence of amorphous materials in several pores and at the edges of the acicular fibers further support their formation under nonequilibrium conditions. We suggest that the growth processes that lead to this structure result from the solution reaching a supersaturated state, resulting in an adjustment to a lower free energy condition via nucleation and rapid growth.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Hexagonal Lattices of HIV Capsid Proteins Explored by Simulations Based on a Thermodynamically Consistent Model

HIV capsid proteins (CAs) may self-assemble into a variety of shapes under in vivo and in vitro conditions. Here, we employed simulations based on a residue-level coarse-grained (CG) model with full conformational flexibility to investigate hexagonal lattices, which are the underlying structural pattern for CA aggregations. Facilitated by enhanced sampling simulations to rigorously calculate CA dimerization and polymerization affinities, we calibrated our model to reproduce the experimentally measured affinities. Here using the calibrated model, we performed unbiased simulations on several large systems consisting of 1512 CA subunits, allowing reversible binding and unbinding of the CAs in a thermodynamically consistent manner. In one simulation, a preassembled hexagonal CA sheet developed spontaneous curvatures reminiscent of those observed in experiments, and the edges of the sheet exhibited local curvatures larger than those of the interior. In other simulations starting with randomly distributed CAs at different concentrations, existing CA assemblies grew by binding free capsomeres to the edges and by merging with other assemblies. At high CA concentrations, rapid establishment of predominant aggregates was followed by much slower adjustments toward more regular hexagonal lattices, with increasing numbers of intact CA hexamers and pentamers being formed. Our approach of adapting a general CG model to specific systems by using experimental binding data represents a practical and effective strategy for simulating and elucidating intricate protein aggregations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Mosaic lateral heterostructures in two-dimensional perovskite

Lateral heterostructures are important for exploring exotic physics, developing new devices and achieving device miniaturization. Endo-epitaxial growth occurring in patterned templates presents a promising strategy to realize extensive patterned areas in heterostructures, as recently demonstrated with two-dimensional (2D) covalent materials. However, the conventional lithography and etching processes used to prepare patterned templates are too aggressive for 2D lead halide perovskites, owing to their inherently soft and unstable ionic lattice. Here we create square holes of controllable size within 2D lead halide perovskites, enabling the fabrication of continuous lateral heterostructures over large areas. We demonstrate that the square holes form through spontaneous etching, a process initiated by internal strain and stabilized along the [100]/[010] crystallographic direction. Furthermore, the size of the square holes can be controlled by adjusting the etching time and temperature. Moreover, by incorporating a rapid solvent evaporation growth technique, the edges of the square holes act as templates for epitaxial growth of another type of perovskite, incorporating different halide or metal ions. Finally, we realized a series of mosaic lateral heterostructures that can emit various colours for light-emitting devices. As a result, this synthesis of diverse 2D perovskite mosaic lateral heterostructures provides valuable insights into the structural characteristics of perovskites and offers a versatile material platform for the development of complex integrated emitting devices.

Organic–inorganic nanostructures↗

Towards a dynamic photosynthesis model to guide yield improvement in C4 crops

Summary The most productive C4 food and biofuel crops, such as Saccharum officinarum (sugarcane), Sorghum bicolor (sorghum) and Zea mays (maize), all use NADP‐ME‐type C4 photosynthesis. Despite high productivities, these crops fall well short of the theoretical maximum solar conversion efficiency of 6%. Understanding the basis of these inefficiencies is key for bioengineering and breeding strategies to increase the sustainable productivity of these major C4 crops. Photosynthesis is studied predominantly at steady state in saturating light. In field stands of these crops light is continually changing, and often with rapid fluctuations. Although light may change in a second, the adjustment of photosynthesis may take many minutes, leading to inefficiencies. We measured the rates of CO 2 uptake and stomatal conductance of maize, sorghum and sugarcane under fluctuating light regimes. The gas exchange results were combined with a new dynamic photosynthesis model to infer the limiting factors under non‐steady‐state conditions. The dynamic photosynthesis model was developed from an existing C4 metabolic model for maize and extended to include: (i) post‐translational regulation of key photosynthetic enzymes and their temperature responses; (ii) dynamic stomatal conductance; and (iii) leaf energy balance. Testing the model outputs against measured rates of leaf CO 2 uptake and stomatal conductance in the three C4 crops indicated that Rubisco activase, the pyruvate phosphate dikinase regulatory protein and stomatal conductance are the major limitations to the efficiency of NADP‐ME‐type C4 photosynthesis during dark‐to‐high light transitions. We propose that the level of influence of these limiting factors make them targets for bioengineering the improved photosynthetic efficiency of these key crops.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Optimization of Water-Alternating-CO2 Injection Field Operations Using a Machine-Learning-Assisted Workflow

Summary This paper will present a robust workflow to address multiobjective optimization (MOO) of carbon dioxide (CO2)-enhanced oil recovery (EOR)-sequestration projects with a large number of operational control parameters. Farnsworth unit (FWU) field, a mature oil reservoir undergoing CO2 alternating water injection (CO2-WAG) EOR, will be used as a field case to validate the proposed optimization protocol. The expected outcome of this work would be a repository of Pareto-optimal solutions of multiple objective functions, including oil recovery, carbon storage volume, and project economics. FWU’s numerical model is used to demonstrate the proposed optimization workflow. Because using MOO requires computationally intensive procedures, machine-learning-based proxies are introduced to substitute for the high-fidelity model, thus reducing the total computation overhead. The vector machine regression combined with the Gaussian kernel (Gaussian-SVR) is used to construct proxies. An iterative self-adjusting process prepares the training knowledge base to develop robust proxies and minimizes computational time. The proxies’ hyperparameters will be optimally designed using Bayesian optimization to achieve better generalization performance. Trained proxies will be coupled with multiobjective particle swarm Optimization (MOPSO) protocol to construct the Pareto-front solution repository. The outcomes of this workflow will be a repository containing Pareto-optimal solutions of multiple objectives considered in the CO2-WAG project. The proposed optimization workflow will be compared with another established methodology using a multilayer neural network (MLNN) to validate its feasibility in handling MOO with a large number of parameters to control. Optimization parameters used include operational variables that might be used to control the CO2-WAG process, such as the duration of the water/gas injection period, producer bottomhole pressure (BHP) control, and water injection rate of each well included in the numerical model. It is proved that the workflow coupling Gaussian-SVR proxies and the iterative self-adjusting protocol is more computationally efficient. The MOO process is made more rapid by squeezing the size of the required training knowledge base while maintaining the high accuracy of the optimized results. The outcomes of the optimization study show promising results in successfully establishing the solution repository considering multiple objective functions. Results are also verified by validating the Pareto fronts with simulation results using obtained optimized control parameters. The outcome from this work could provide field operators an opportunity to design a CO2-WAG project using as many inputs as possible from the reservoir models. The proposed work introduces a novel concept that couples Gaussian-SVR proxies with a self-adjusting protocol to increase the computational efficiency of the proposed workflow and to guarantee the high accuracy of the obtained optimized results. More importantly, the workflow can optimize a large number of control parameters used in a complex CO2-WAG process, which greatly extends its utility in solving large-scale MOO problems in various projects with similar desired outcomes.

Energy & Fuels↗

Development of APCVD BSG and POCl 3 Codiffusion Process for Double-Side TOPCon Solar Cell Precursor Fabrication

This paper presents a commercially viable process for fabricating a high-quality double-side tunnel oxide passivating contact (DS-TOPCon) cell precursor using APCVD-deposited boron silicate glass and ex-situ POCl 3 diffusion in a single high-temperature step, eliminating the need for additional masking and diffusion processes. A two-tier temperature profile was developed, involving a pre-annealing at above 900°C in nitrogen (N2) ambient followed by POCl 3 diffusion at 840°C. We investigated the effect of varying pre-annealing temperatures, ranging from 875°C to 950°C, on the passivation quality and metal-Si contact properties of both n-TOPCon and p-TOPCon layers. The resultant DS-TOPCon cell precursor after silicon nitride (SiNX) passivation exhibited an excellent iV OC of close to 730 mV. In addition, a rapid asymmetric poly-Si thinning technique, developed in this work, enabled adjustment of the front n + poly-Si thickness while maintaining the rear p + poly-Si thickness. Two types of DS-TOPCon cell architectures can be fabricated: i) full-area thin (≈40nm) n-TOPCon layer on the front and ii) selective-area thick (≈200nm) n-TOPCon fingers underneath the metal grid. Device simulations suggest that full-area DS-TOPCon cell with 40 nm n + poly-Si and selective-area DS-TOPCon cell with 200 nm n + poly fingers on the front, fabricated from our current DS-TOPCon cell precursor, can achieve cell efficiencies of 22.1 and 23.5%, respectively. Detailed power loss analysis and device simulation reveal that further improvements in material and device parameters have potential to push the cell efficiencies of DS-TOPCon cell structure beyond 25%, making it a promising alternative to fabricate a high-efficiency next-generation solar cells at low cost.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The Distribution of U.S. Electric Utility Revenue Decoupling Rate Impacts from 2005 to 2017

Investments in energy efficiency and distributed generation reduce electric utility retail sales. Since electric utilities have historically collected a large portion of revenues from volumetric energy rates (¢/kWh), such reductions in sales can impact the utility’s ability to sufficiently recover non-production costs. Regulatory mechanisms that “decouple” utility revenues from sales were implemented to help make the utility indifferent to energy efficiency and distributed generation by ensuring the utility is able to collect an allowed level of revenue each year regardless of its sales. However, noticeable and consistent surcharges over time may create the perception of an incorrectly designed or implemented decoupling mechanism. To date, there are limited quantitative analyses of the rate adjustments due to decoupling mechanisms implemented among U.S. electric utilities (see Morgan, 2013). Given the recent rapid increase in distributed energy resource (DER) adoption in some states and utility service territories, consumers may be facing more prevalent and ongoing decoupling surcharges. This, in turn, may undermine stakeholder support for implementation of decoupling mechanisms and the associated utility support for energy efficiency and DERs. To determine the size of retail rate adjustments associated with decoupling mechanisms and whether they have a tendency towards bill surcharges or credits, we analyzed a large dataset of historical annual decoupling rate adjustments for 21 electric utilities in 11 states between 2005 and 2017. We found that decoupling mechanisms adjusted rates, both up and down, between rate cases, and the majority of those adjustments (54 percent) are small (within a range of -1 to 1 percent). However, we also found that 64 percent of the rate adjustment observations in our sample showed a positive rate adjustment. Importantly, once a surcharge is applied there is an 86 percent chance that there will be a surcharge in the next year as well. While our analysis did not seek to understand the root causes for such results, some possible factors include the accuracy of revenue requirement forecasts, emerging structural changes in customer use and production of energy, misaligned financial motivation, and other factors that influence sales (e.g., economic recession).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗