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NASA NTRS2020

Recent Amplified Global Gross Primary Productivity Due to Temperature Increase is Offset by Reduced Productivity Due to Water Constraints

Satellite remote sensing observationsshow an increased greenness trend over land in recent decades. Whilegreennessobservationscanindicateincreased productivity, estimation of total annual productivity is highly dependent on vegetation response to climate and environmental conditions. Models have been struggling to determinehow much carbon is taken up by plants as a result of increased atmospheric CO2fertilization. Current remote sensing light use efficiency (LUE) models contain considerable uncertainty due to the lack of spatial and temporal variability in maximum LUE parameter and climate sensitivity defined for global plantfunctional types (PFTs). We usedthe optimum LUE (LUEopt) previously derived fromtheglobal FLUXNET network to improve estimation of global gross primary productivity (GPP)for the period 1982–2016. Our results indicateincreasing GPP in northern latitudesowing to reduced cold temperature constraintson plant growth, thereby suggesting increasing negative carbon-climate feedbackin high latitudes. In the tropics, by contrast, our results indicate an emerging positive climate feedback,mainly due to increasing atmospheric vapor pressure deficit(VPD).Further pervasive VPD increase is likely to continue to reduce global GPPand amplify carbon emissions.

Climate change↗

DOE OSTI2026

Heliostat Sizing Methodology for Solar Heat for Industrial Processes

This study presents a method to obtain a heliostat size that minimizes the levelized cost of a heliostat-based concentrating solar thermal system for industrial process heat (IPH) applications at operating temperatures from 565 to 1550 degrees Celsius. The method extends prior work by embedding a routine for system design that obtains near-optimal subsystem sizes, increasing the fidelity of drive cost functions, and adding an optical performance model. An illustrative business case is developed for Daggett, California, targeting specified annual thermal energy outputs of 50 to 400 GWhth. Optical performance is modeled using verified estimates from the literature. A surrogate heliostat cost model, derived from commercial heliostat designs and scaled for production volume, installation, and operations and maintenance costs, is used to develop cost functions. Results show that heliostat size strongly affects the levelized cost of heat (LCOH), producing a characteristic U-shaped trend with a robust near-optimal window of 8 - 12 m2; the heliostat size producing the lowest project cost in our study grows slightly as the project size increases, and is reduced as the operating temperature increases. The findings in this study are consistent with the general trend of smaller heliostats under deployment at existing projects for high-temperature industrial process heat and reflect the significant reduction in power electronics and other per-heliostat costs. The methodology we propose is general and can be tailored to revised cost curves as the technology continues to evolve.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2014

How Accurate is Land/Ocean Moisture Transport Variability in Reanalyses?

Quantifying the global hydrological cycle and its variability across various time scales remains a challenge to the climate community. Direct measurements of evaporation (E), evapotranspiration (ET), and precipitation (P) are not feasible on a global scale, nor is the transport of water vapor over the global oceans and sparsely populated land areas. Expanding satellite data streams have enabled development of various water (and energy) flux products, complementing reanalyses and facilitating observationally constrained modeling. But the evolution of the global observing system has produced additional complications--improvements in satellite sensor resolution and accuracy have resulted in "epochs" of observational quasi-uniformity that can adversely affect reanalysis trends. In this work we focus on vertically integrated moisture flux convergence (VMFC) variations within the period 1979 - present integrated over global land. We show that VMFC in recent reanalyses (e.g. ERA-I, NASA MERRA, NOAA CFSR and JRA55) suffers from observing system changes, though differently in each product. Land Surface Models (LSMs) forced with observations-based precipitation, radiation and near-surface meteorology share closely the interannual P-ET variations of the reanalyses associated with ENSO events. (VMFC over land and P-ET estimates are equivalent quantities since atmospheric storage changes are small on these scales.) But the long-term LSM trend over the period since 1979 is approximately one-fourth that of the reanalyses. Additional reduced observation reanalyses assimilating only surface pressure and /or specifying seasurface temperature also have a much smaller trend in P-ET like the LSMs. We explore the regional manifestation of the reanalysis P-ET / VMFC problems, particularly over land. Both principal component analysis and a simple time series changepoint analysis highlight problems associated with data poor regions such as Equatorial Africa and, for one reanalysis, the Equatorial Andes region. Onset of the availability of passive microwave Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI) moisture data in July 1987 and the transition from the Microwave Sounder Unit (MSU) to an advanced version (AMSU) have significant impacts on VMFC variability. Simple accounting for these errors of leading importance results in modified reanalysis VMFC estimates that agree much better with the LSM results. Regional details of the modified reanalysis VMFC and LSM P-ET are related to changes in Pacific Decadal Variability as manifest in SST changes after the late 1990s.

Robertson, F. R.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Heliostat sizing methodology for concentrating solar thermal industrial process heat projects

This study presents a method to obtain a heliostat size that minimizes the levelized cost of heat (LCOH) of a heliostat-based concentrating solar thermal system for applications of solar heating for industrial processes at operating temperatures from 565 to 1550°C. The method extends prior work by embedding a routine for system design that obtains near-optimal subsystem sizes, increasing the fidelity of drive cost functions, and adding an optical performance model to supplement the previously developed cost models, which we update to reflect current pricing trends. An illustrative business case is developed for Daggett, California, targeting specified annual thermal energy outputs of 50 to 400 GWh th . Optical performance is modeled using verified estimates from the literature. A surrogate heliostat cost model, derived from commercial heliostat designs and scaled for production volume, installation, and operations and maintenance costs, is used to develop cost functions. Results show that heliostat size strongly affects the LCOH, producing a characteristic U-shaped trend with a robust near-optimal window of 7-20 m 2 ; the heliostat size producing the lowest project cost in our study grows slightly as the project size increases, and is reduced as the operating temperature increases. The findings in this study are consistent with the general trend of smaller heliostats being deployed at existing projects for high-temperature industrial process heat and reflect the significant reduction in power electronics and other per-heliostat costs. The methodology we propose is general and can be tailored to revised cost curves as the technology continues to evolve.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Molecular beam epitaxy of superconducting zirconium nitride on GaN substrates

Epitaxial integration of metals and semiconductors can enable enhanced performance and novel functionality. Achieving such pristine interfaces with superconducting materials is of increasing interest for quantum devices and detectors, but the experimental demonstration remains challenging, given the very limited studies on single crystalline systems. To expand the potential materials for these systems, this work explores the deposition of zirconium nitride superconducting thin films on GaN substrates at various temperatures using molecular beam epitaxy. A general trend of decreasing superconducting critical temperature is observed as the deposition temperature is reduced. The optical properties reveal a transition from metallic to dielectric behavior with colder deposition. The plasma frequency of the metallic films is also observed to be a function of growth temperature. These results pave the way for the integration of a highly tunable metal nitride with a well-established semiconductor system.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1976

Swirling-flow jet noise suppressors for aircraft engines

Experimental investigations of the effects of swirling the jet exhausts of small turbofan and turbojet engines have indicated significant progress towards predicting and attaining substantial jet noise abatement with minimum thrust losses in large aircraft engines. Systematic variations of the important swirl vane and swirling flow parameters were conducted to determine their effects on jet noise reduction and engine performance. Since swirling flow becomes more effective in reducing jet noise as the density and temperature gradients increase, the significant trends in noise reduction and engine performance that were established by these parametric studies could be projected into potentially greater reductions of sound pressure levels with minimum thrust losses by controlled swirling of the jets of high thrust engines. The density and temperature gradients in the jet exhausts of high thrust engines are larger by comparison with gradients in small engines.

Schwartz, I. R.↗

NASA NTRS2013

The Response of the South Asian Summer Monsoon Circulation to Intensified Irrigation in Global Climate Model Simulations

Agricultural intensification in South Asia has resulted in the expansion and intensification of surface irrigation over the twentieth century. The resulting changes to the surface energy balance could affect the temperature contrasts between the South Asian land surface and the equatorial Indian Ocean, potentially altering the South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM) circulation. Prior studies have noted apparent declines in the monsoon intensity over the twentieth century and have focused on how altered surface energy balances impact the SASM rainfall distribution. Here, we use the coupled Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE-R general circulation model to investigate the impact of intensifying irrigation on the large-scale SASM circulation over the twentieth century, including how the effect of irrigation compares to the impact of increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. We force our simulations with time-varying, historical estimates of irrigation, both alone and with twentieth century GHGs and other forcings. In the irrigation only experiment, irrigation rates correlate strongly with lower and upper level temperature contrasts between the Indian sub-continent and the Indian Ocean (Pearson's r = -0.66 and r = -0.46, respectively), important quantities that control the strength of the SASM circulation. When GHG forcing is included, these correlations strengthen: r = -0.72 and r = -0.47 for lower and upper level temperature contrasts, respectively. Under irrigated conditions, the mean SASM intensity in the model decreases only slightly and insignificantly. However, in the simulation with irrigation and GHG forcing, inter-annual variability of the SASM circulation decreases by *40 %, consistent with trends in the reanalysis products. This suggests that the inclusion of irrigation may be necessary to accurately simulate the historical trends and variability of the SASM system over the last 50 years. These findings suggest that intensifying irrigation, in concert with increased GHG forcing, is capable of reducing the variability of the simulated SASM circulation and altering the regional moisture transport by limiting the surface warming and reducing land-sea temperature gradients.

amplification↗

DOE OSTI2026

Enhanced coercivity in Fe5C2/SiO2 core/shell nanocrystals

Rod-shaped Fe5C2 and core/shell Fe5C2/SiO2 nanocrystals were synthesized via a solution-based chemical method. Structural analysis confirmed the monoclinic phase of Fe5C2 with space group C2/c. Zero-field-cooling (ZFC) and field-cooling (FC) magnetization curves revealed distinct magnetic behaviors: uncoated Fe5C2 exhibited a low-temperature FC plateau indicative of strong dipolar interactions, while Fe5C2/SiO2 showed a monotonic increase in FC magnetization, suggesting reduced dipolar interactions due to SiO2 surface passivation. Isothermal remanent magnetization (IRM) and DC demagnetization (DCD) measurements supported this trend, with δM plots confirming weaker dipolar interactions in the coated sample. Bloch’s law fitting of temperature-dependent saturation magnetization showed a smaller Bloch’s constant for pure Fe5C2 and a larger value for Fe5C2/SiO2, reflecting enhanced surface disorder and reduced exchange coupling in the latter. Notably, Fe5C2/SiO2 demonstrated increased coercivity, attributed to decreased dipolar interaction and elevated surface anisotropy. Kneller’s law fitting yielded higher blocking temperatures for Fe5C2 (476 K) than Fe5C2/SiO2 (456 K), highlighting the impact of dipolar interactions on magnetic relaxation. These findings illustrate how SiO2 coatings effectively modulate dipolar interactions and enhance coercivity in Fe5C2 nanocrystals.

Joshi, Pramanand [Department of Physics, Universit↗

NASA NTRS1995

Overview of thermal barrier coatings in diesel engines

An understanding of delamination mechanisms in thermal barrier coatings has been developed for diesel applications through nondestructive evaluation, structural analysis modeling and engine evaluation of various thermal barrier coatings. This knowledge has resulted in improved thermal barrier coatings which survive abusive cyclic fatigue tests in high output diesel engines. Significant efforts are still required to improve the plasma spray processing capability and the economics for complex geometry diesel engine components. Data obtained from advanced diesel engines on the effect of thermal barrier coatings on engine fuel economy and emission has not been encouraging. Although the underlying metal component temperatures have been reduced through the use of thermal barrier coating, engine efficiency and emission trends have not been promising.

Yonushonis, T. M.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Quantifying Changes in Urban Albedo with NASA Earth Observations to Reduce the Urban Heat Island Effect in Cambridge, Massachusetts

Elevated temperatures resulting from the urban heat island (UHI) effect can have widespread impacts on human health, infrastructure, and ecosystems. These impacts can be exacerbated by changes in climate and extreme variation in regional temperature. By 2030, experts expect Cambridge, Massachusetts will experience warmer than average temperatures, more heat waves, and triple the number of abnormally warm days above 90°F per year. The NASA DEVELOP Program partnered with the City of Cambridge’s Community Development Department and the American Geophysical Union’s Thriving Earth Exchange to inform ongoing efforts aimed at reducing the impacts of urban heat in the city of Cambridge. The team used scenes obtained from High Resolution Orthoimagery and the National Agriculture Imagery Program in conjunction with building footprint data, to calculate rooftop albedo between 2008 and 2018. Using these results, maps displaying building-specific variation in albedo across Cambridge were created. A nighttime land surface temperature (LST) record for June, July, and August between 2003 and 2019 was constructed using the Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) nighttime LST product. Lastly, temperature anomalies were calculated for Cambridge using seasonally averaged nighttime LST values obtained from Aqua MODIS to display ‘hot spots’ for summers between 2004 and 2019. The results of this project were then incorporated into an interactive ArcGIS Dashboard. This work will allow end users to explore spatial and temporal trends in albedo, nighttime LST, and temperature anomalies to assess whether the City of Cambridge is successfully reducing the effects of UHIs.

NASA DEVELOP↗

NASA NTRS2004

Analysis of 1970-1995 Trends in Tropospheric Ozone at Northern Hemisphere Midlatitudes with the GEOS-CHEM Model

I ] The causes of trends in tropospheric ozone at Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes from 1970 to 1995 are investigated with the GEOS-CHEM model, a global three-dimensional model of the troposphere driven by assimilated meteorological observations from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS). This model is used to investigate the sensitivity of tropospheric ozone with respect to (1) changes in the anthropogenic emission of nitrogen oxides and nonmethane hydrocarbons, (2) increases in methane concentrations, (3) variations in the stratospheric source of ozone, (4) changes in solar radiation resulting from stratospheric ozone depletion, and ( 5 ) increases in tropospheric temperatures. Model results indicate that local increases in NO, emissions have caused most of the increases seen in lower tropospheric ozone over Europe and Japan. Increases in methane are responsible for roughly one fifth of the anthropogenically induced increase in tropospheric ozone at northern midlatitudes. However, changes in ozone precursors do not adequately explain either the spatial differences in observed ozone trends across midlatitudes or the observed decreases in ozone over Canada throughout the troposphere. We argue that ozone depletion in the lowermost stratosphere is likely to have reduced the stratospheric source by as much as 30% from the early 1970s to the mid 1990s. Model simulations that account for such a reduction along with reported changes in anthropogenic emissions show steep declines of ozone in the upper troposphere and variable increases in the lower troposphere that are more consistent with observations. Differential temperature trends in summer between North America and Europe may account for at least some of the remaining spatial variation in tropospheric ozone trends. Increases in ultraviolet (UV) radiation due to stratospheric ozone depletion do not appear to significantly reduce tropospheric ozone, except at midlatitudes in the Southern Hemisphere following the breakup of the ozone hole.

Fusco, Andrew C.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Climate Shifts Within Major Agricultural Seasons for +1.5 and +2.0 °C Worlds: HAPPI Projections and AgMIP Modeling Scenarios

This study compares climate changes in major agricultural regions and current agricultural seasons associated with global warming of +1.5 or +2.0 °C above pre-industrial conditions. It describes the generation of climate scenarios for agricultural modeling applications conducted as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments. Climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Projections, Prognosis and Impacts project (HAPPI) are largely consistent with transient scenarios extracted from RCP4.5 simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Focusing on food and agricultural systems and top-producing breadbaskets in particular, we distinguish maize, rice, wheat, and soy season changes from global annual mean climate changes. Many agricultural regions warm at a rate that is faster than the global mean surface temperature (including oceans) but slower than the mean land surface temperature, leading to regional warming that exceeds 0.5 °C between the +1.5 and +2.0 °C Worlds. Agricultural growing seasons warm at a pace slightly behind the annual temperature trends in most regions, while precipitation increases slightly ahead of the annual rate. Rice cultivation regions show reduced warming as they are concentrated where monsoon rainfall is projected to intensify, although projections are influenced by Asian aerosol loading in climate mitigation scenarios. Compared to CMIP5, HAPPI slightly underestimates the CO2 concentration that corresponds to the +1.5 °C World but overestimates the CO2 concentration for the +2.0 °C World, which means that HAPPI scenarios may also lead to an overestimate in the beneficial effects of CO2 on crops in the +2.0 °C World. HAPPI enables detailed analysis of the shifting distribution of extreme growing season temperatures and precipitation, highlighting widespread increases in extreme heat seasons and heightened skewness toward hot seasons in the tropics. Shifts in the probability of extreme drought seasons generally tracked median precipitation changes; however, some regions skewed toward drought conditions even where median precipitation changes were small. Together, these findings highlight unique seasonal and agricultural region changes in the +1.5 °C and +2.0 °C worlds for adaptation planning in these climate stabilization targets.

Alexander C. Ruane↗

NASA NTRS2012

Experimental Behavior of Sulfur Under Primitive Planetary Differentiation Processes, the Sulfide Formations in Enstatite Meteorites and Implications for Mercury.

Enstatite meteorites are the most reduced naturally-occuring materials of the solar system. The cubic monosulfide series with the general formula (Mg,Mn,Ca,Fe)S are common phases in these meteorite groups. The importance of such minerals, their formation, composition and textural relationships for understanding the genesis of enstatite chondrites (EC) and aubrites, has long been recognized (e.g. [1]). However, the mechanisms of formation of these sulfides is still not well constrained certainly because of possible multiple ways to produce them. We propose to simulate different models of formation in order to check their mineralogical, chemical and textural relevancies. The solubility of sulfur in silicate melts is of primary interest for planetary mantles, particularly for the Earth and Mercury. Indeed, these two planets could have formed, at least partly, from EC materials (e.g. [2, 3, 4]). The sulfur content in silicate melts depends on the melt composition but also on pressure (P), temperature (T) and oxygen fugacity fO2. Unfortunately, there is no model of general validity in a wide range of P-T-fO2-composition which describes precisely the evolution of sulfur content in silicate melts, even if the main trends are now known. The second goal of this study is to constrain the sulfur content in silicate melts under reducing conditions and different temperatures.

Malavergne, V.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Development of an All-Aqueous Thermally Regenerative Redox Flow Battery to Support Fossil Fuel Assets

Low-temperature thermal energy, a largely untapped resource, holds significant promise for large-scale electrical power generation globally. Various stationary sources, including industrial entities and thermal power plants, emit considerable low-temperature heat that currently remains unutilized. This energy is often overlooked because its low temperature renders it unsuitable for efficient power generation using conventional methods. However, current research is exploring diverse technologies capable of converting low-temperature heat into grid-scale power, aiming to enhance grid efficiency, further decarbonization initiatives, and facilitate a shift toward more decentralized power systems. One such innovative technology is the thermally regenerative battery (TRB), noted for its high power and energy densities compared to similar technologies, positioning it as a potential game-changer in power generation. TRBs integrate two scalable and well-established unit operations: a redox flow battery and a distillation column. This integration suggests that once an effective TRB chemistry is established, the pathway to commercialization could be expedited. The copper-based thermally regenerative ammonia battery (Cu aq -TRAB) stands out as the first TRB that circumvents electrodeposition/dissolution reactions, stabilizing Cu(I) and Cu(II) within the electrolyte and maintaining stability of all electroactive species in an aqueous phase. This stabilization has led to improvements in coulombic efficiency, open circuit potential, and copper solubility, thereby enhancing power density, energy density, and overall energy efficiency. Preliminary tests were conducted to determine the effects of various electrolyte species on the performance metrics of the battery, both theoretically and experimentally. These tests revealed that the solubility of copper in the Cu aq -TRAB electrolyte was constrained by the Cu(I)-NH 3 complex. Adjusting the background electrolyte to 5 M NH4Br and the ligand concentration to 4 M NH 3 enabled the copper concentration to reach a maximum of 0.6 M. This modification led to an estimated theoretical maximum energy density of 9.5 Wh L -1 for the Cu aq -TRAB. Additionally, full cell testing indicated a tradeoff between peak power and energy density with varying copper and ammonia concentrations. Increasing the applied current density during discharge linearly raised the average power output, with a minimal reduction in energy density due to a balance between higher ohmic overpotential and reduced time for undesirable ammonia crossover. Furthermore, a comprehensive numerical sensitivity analysis of the complete Cu aq -TRAB system was performed. This analysis aimed to assess how the battery and the distillation column responded to changes in system input parameters, providing insights into optimal research directions for enhancing system performance. The analysis revealed that at room temperature, battery power was significantly more sensitive to ohmic losses than to mass transfer, with reaction rates having minimal impact. This trend continued even at higher temperatures. Also, the thermal energy required for ammonia separation was studied, showing that increased temperatures generally reduced energy requirements, except in low-pressure scenarios above 65 °C. An investigation into membrane performance in the Cu aq -TRAB was undertaken, given the significant impact of ammonia transport control and ohmic losses on system performance. Various membranes were evaluated to identify key performance metrics. Among the tested membranes, Selemion CMVN exhibited the highest performance, with a peak power density of 84 mW cm -2 and average values of 26 ± 6.8 mW cm -2 for power density and 2.9 Wh L -1 for energy density at an applied current density of 50 mA cm -2 . An economic assessment indicated a levelized cost of storage at $410 per MWh under optimal conditions, highlighting the commercial potential of the Cu aq -TRAB when utilizing cost-effective, readily available materials.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Climate Fingerprinting Sounder Product (ClimFiSP) Skin Temperature Trends Analysis

Climate fingerprinting Sounder Product (ClimFiSP) has been developed at NASA Langley Research Center which includes daily skin temperature, surface emissivity, air temperature, H2O, trace gases, and cloud properties on 0.5x0.5 grid. Those properties are derived from IR hyper-spectral radiance measured by AIRS on Aqua and CrIS on SNPP and JPSS series. Global skin temperature trends have been derived using more than 20 years of monthly mean skin temperature data from ClimFiSP. The ClimFiSP algorithm use the spectral fingerprinting methodology that allows a low latency procession of more than two decades long satellite data record. The computational cost can be reduced by more than two orders of magnitude as compared with traditional Level-Level2-Level3 retrieval algorithms. In this presentation the global skin temperature trend from ClimFiSP will be compared with skin temperature trend derived from CLIMCAPS, ERA5, GISTEMP, HadCRUT5, and IASI data products, and the results show that pattern of ClimFiSP global skin temperature trends overall matches well with other datasets. The zonally averaged skin temperature anomaly will also be validated using those datasets. It is expected that ClimFiSP surface temperature data can serve as an important complement for surface-based estimates, especially in the regions where the spatial coverage of the surface-based observations is scarce.

Liqiao Lei↗

DOE OSTI2020

River Regulation Alleviates the Impacts of Climate Change on US Thermoelectricity Production

Climate change and anthropogenic activities can both influence stream temperature, which is a critical indicator of thermoelectric power generation potential. Previous studies emphasized the vulnerability of power-generation systems to climate warming (ref 1, 2). Despite the fact that two-thirds of the global rivers are regulated by dams (ref 3), the relative impacts of water management and climate change on stream temperature and thermoelectric production have not yet been evaluated. Using an integrated modeling system applied to the conterminous United States, simulations confirm the dominant role of climate change in shaping the future trends of stream temperature. However, water management, reservoir regulation in particular, can mitigate the stream temperature warming and reduce the frequency and magnitude of extreme high stream temperatures through redistribution of the seasonal streamflow. Moreover, water management can alleviate the loss of power plant usable capacity from climate change to the level of reduced warming from emission mitigation. By regulating the flow and temperature regimes, water management is a promising adaptation measure to alleviate climate change induced effects in the water-energy nexus.

Zhang, Xiao↗

NASA NTRS2001

Response to Comment on "Does the Earth Have an Adaptive Infrared Iris?"

In his comment on Lindzen et al., Harrison found that the amount of high-level clouds, A, and the sea-surface temperature beneath clouds, T, averaged over a large oceanic domain in the western Pacific have secular linear trends of opposite signs over a period of 20 months. He found that when the linear trends are subtracted from the data, the correlation between the residual A and T is much reduced. His estimates of the confidence levels for the correlation indicate, moreover, that this correlation is not statistically significant. The domain-averaged A and, to a lesser degree, T, have distinct intra-seasonal and seasonal variations. These variations are influenced by the large-scale wind and temperature distributions and by the seasonal variation of insolation. To separate the local effect from the effect of slowly changing large-scale conditions, rather than subtracting 20-month linear trends from the series, which has the potential to spuriously extrapolate intra-seasonal and seasonal variations to even longer time scales, we subtracted 30-day running means of A and T from each time series; in effect, the data were high-pass filtered. The number of points (days), N, is reduced by this process from the original value of 510 to 480.

Bell, Thomas L.↗

NASA NTRS2010

The Effect of Satellite Observing System Changes on MERRA Water and Energy Fluxes

Because reanalysis data sets offer state variables and fluxes at regular space / time intervals, atmospheric reanalyses have become a mainstay of the climate community for diagnostic purposes and for driving offline ocean and land models. Although one weakness of these data sets is the susceptibility of the flux products to uncertainties because of shortcomings in parameterized model physics, another issue, perhaps less appreciated, is the fact that continual but discreet changes in the evolving observational system, particularly from satellite sensors, may also introduce artifacts in the time series of quantities. In this paper we examine the ability of the NASA MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications) and other recent reanalyses to determine variability in the climate system over the satellite record (approximately the last 30 years). In particular we highlight the effect on the reanalysis of discontinuities at the junctures of the onset of passive microwave imaging (Special Sensor Microwave Imager) in late 1987 as well as improved sounding and imaging with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit, AMSU-A, in 1998. We first examine MERRA fluxes from the perspective of how physical modes of variability (e.g. ENSO events, Pacific Decadal Variability) are contaminated by artificial step-like trends induced by the onset of new moisture data these two satellite observing systems. Secondly, we show how Redundancy Analysis, a statistical regression methodology, is effective in relating these artifact signals in the moisture and temperature analysis increments to their presence in the physical flux terms (e.g. precipitation, radiation). This procedure is shown to be effective greatly reducing the artificial trends in the flux quantities.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗