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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Model selection and signal extraction using Gaussian Process regression

We present a novel computational approach for extracting localized signals from smooth background distributions. We focus on datasets that can be naturally presented as binned integer counts, demonstrating our procedure on the CERN open dataset with the Higgs boson signature, from the ATLAS collaboration at the Large Hadron Collider. Our approach is based on Gaussian Process (GP) regression — a powerful and flexible machine learning technique which has allowed us to model the background without specifying its functional form explicitly and separately measure the background and signal contributions in a robust and reproducible manner. Unlike functional fits, our GP-regression-based approach does not need to be constantly updated as more data becomes available. We discuss how to select the GP kernel type, considering trade-offs between kernel complexity and its ability to capture the features of the background distribution. We show that our GP framework can be used to detect the Higgs boson resonance in the data with more statistical significance than a polynomial fit specifically tailored to the dataset. Finally, we use Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling to confirm the statistical significance of the extracted Higgs signature.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Taming nuclear mass models with Gaussian processes

We propose a new set of nuclear mass predictions based on multiple theoretical mass models. By employing Gaussian process regression with the Matérn kernel, we achieved root-mean-square (rms) deviations below 100 keV for the training dataset. The best-performing mass models achieved rms deviations below 150 keV for the new precise mass data from AME2020, whereas the ensemble average showed robust performance across the nuclear chart. Our approach uniquely combines: (1) systematic refinement of eight mass models through their residuals, (2) physics-informed features, including magic numbers, nucleon parity numbers, neutron excess, and nuclear collectivity, and (3) theory-to-theory validation demonstrating robust extrapolation capability. We find that the Matérn kernel provides superior uncertainty quantification compared to the RBF kernel, with a length-scale analysis revealing enhanced inter-nuclei correlations. We provide complete mass predictions for all unknown nuclides in AME2020, offering valuable constraints for nuclear structure studies and astrophysical modeling when used with proper uncertainty propagation.

Gaussian processes↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Bayesian framework for adsorption energy prediction on bimetallic alloy catalysts

Abstract For high-throughput screening of materials for heterogeneous catalysis, scaling relations provides an efficient scheme to estimate the chemisorption energies of hydrogenated species. However, conditioning on a single descriptor ignores the model uncertainty and leads to suboptimal prediction of the chemisorption energy. In this article, we extend the single descriptor linear scaling relation to a multi-descriptor linear regression models to leverage the correlation between adsorption energy of any two pair of adsorbates. With a large dataset, we use Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) as the model evidence to select the best linear regression model. Furthermore, Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) based on the meaningful convolution of physical properties of the metal-adsorbate complex can be used to predict the baseline residual of the selected model. This integrated Bayesian model selection and Gaussian process regression, dubbed as residual learning, can achieve performance comparable to standard DFT error (0.1 eV) for most adsorbate system. For sparse and small datasets, we propose an ad hoc Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach to make a robust prediction. With this Bayesian framework, we significantly reduce the model uncertainty and improve the prediction accuracy. The possibilities of the framework for high-throughput catalytic materials exploration in a realistic setting is illustrated using large and small sets of both dense and sparse simulated dataset generated from a public database of bimetallic alloys available in Catalysis-Hub.org.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Near-Infrared Spectroscopy can Predict Anatomical Abundance in Corn Stover

Feedstock heterogeneity is a key challenge impacting the deconstruction and conversion of herbaceous lignocellulosic biomass to biobased fuels, chemicals, and materials. Upstream processing to homogenize biomass feedstock streams into their anatomical components via air classification allows for a more tailored approach to subsequent mechanical and chemical processing. Here, we show that differing corn stover anatomical tissues respond differently to pretreatment and enzymatic hydrolysis and therefore, a one-size-fits-all approach to chemical processing biomass is inappropriate. To inform on-line downstream processing, a robust and high-throughput analytical technique is needed to quantitatively characterize the separated biomass. Predictive correlation of near-infrared spectra to biomass chemical composition is such a technique. Here, we demonstrate the capability of models developed using an “off-the-shelf,” industrially relevant spectrometer with limited spectral range to make strong predictions of both cell wall chemical composition and the relative abundance of anatomical components of the corn stover, the latter for the first time ever. Gaussian process regression (GPR) yields stronger correlations (average R 2 v = 88% for chemical composition and 95% for anatomical relative abundance) than the more commonly used partial least squares (PLS) regression (average R 2 v = 84% for chemical composition and 92% for anatomical relative abundance). In nearly all cases, both GPR and PLS outperform models generated using neural networks. These results highlight the potential for coupling NIRS with predictive models based on GPR due to the potential to yield more robust correlations.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Discovery of structure–property relations for molecules via hypothesis-driven active learning over the chemical space

The discovery of the molecular candidates for application in drug targets, biomolecular systems, catalysts, photovoltaics, organic electronics, and batteries necessitates the development of machine learning algorithms capable of rapid exploration of chemical spaces targeting the desired functionalities. Here, we introduce a novel approach for active learning over the chemical spaces based on hypothesis learning. We construct the hypotheses on the possible relationships between structures and functionalities of interest based on a small subset of data followed by introducing them as (probabilistic) mean functions for the Gaussian process. This approach combines the elements from the symbolic regression methods, such as SISSO and active learning, into a single framework. The primary focus of constructing this framework is to approximate physical laws in an active learning regime toward a more robust predictive performance, as traditional evaluation on hold-out sets in machine learning does not account for out-of-distribution effects which may lead to a complete failure on unseen chemical space. Here, we demonstrate it for the QM9 dataset, but it can be applied more broadly to datasets from both domains of molecular and solid-state materials sciences.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2017

Robust Online Monitoring for Calibration Assessment of Transmitters and Instrumentation

Robust online monitoring (OLM) technologies are expected to enable the extension or elimination of periodic sensor calibration intervals in operating and new reactors. These advances in OLM technologies will improve the safety and reliability of current and planned nuclear power systems through improved accuracy and increased reliability of sensors used to monitor key parameters. In this article, we discuss an overview of research being performed within the Nuclear Energy Enabling Technologies (NEET)/Advanced Sensors and Instrumentation (ASI) program, for the development of OLM algorithms to use sensor outputs and, in combination with other available information, 1) determine whether one or more sensors are out of calibration or failing and 2) replace a failing sensor with reliable, accurate sensor outputs. Algorithm development is focused on the following OLM functions: • Signal validation • Virtual sensing • Sensor response-time assessment These algorithms incorporate, at their base, a Gaussian Process-based uncertainty quantification (UQ) method. Various plant models (using kernel regression, GP, or hierarchical models) may be used to predict sensor responses under various plant conditions. These predicted responses can then be applied in fault detection (sensor output and response time) and in computing the correct value (virtual sensing) of a failing physical sensor. The methods being evaluated in this work can compute confidence levels along with the predicted sensor responses, and as a result, may have the potential for compensating for sensor drift in real-time (online recalibration). Evaluation was conducted using data from multiple sources (laboratory flow loops and plant data). Ongoing research in this project is focused on further evaluation of the algorithms, optimization for accuracy and computational efficiency, and integration into a suite of tools for robust OLM that are applicable to monitoring sensor calibration state in nuclear power plants.

fault detection↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sparse Cholesky factorization for solving nonlinear PDEs via Gaussian processes

In recent years, there has been widespread adoption of machine learning-based approaches to automate the solving of partial differential equations (PDEs). Among these approaches, Gaussian processes (GPs) and kernel methods have garnered considerable interest due to their flexibility, robust theoretical guarantees, and close ties to traditional methods. They can transform the solving of general nonlinear PDEs into solving quadratic optimization problems with nonlinear, PDE-induced constraints. However, the complexity bottleneck lies in computing with dense kernel matrices obtained from pointwise evaluations of the covariance kernel, and its partial derivatives, a result of the PDE constraint and for which fast algorithms are scarce. The primary goal of this paper is to provide a near-linear complexity algorithm for working with such kernel matrices. We present a sparse Cholesky factorization algorithm for these matrices based on the near-sparsity of the Cholesky factor under a novel ordering of pointwise and derivative measurements. The near-sparsity is rigorously justified by directly connecting the factor to GP regression and exponential decay of basis functions in numerical homogenization. We then employ the Vecchia approximation of GPs, which is optimal in the Kullback-Leibler divergence, to compute the approximate factor. This enables us to compute ϵ-approximate inverse Cholesky factors of the kernel matrices with complexity O(N log d (N/ϵ)) in space and O(N log 2d (N/ϵ)) in time. We integrate sparse Cholesky factorizations into optimization algorithms to obtain fast solvers of the nonlinear PDE. We numerically illustrate our algorithm’s near-linear space/time complexity for a broad class of nonlinear PDEs such as the nonlinear elliptic, Burgers, and Monge-Ampère equations. In summary, we provide a fast, scalable, and accurate method for solving general PDEs with GPs and kernel methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Low-Scaling Algorithm for Nudged Elastic Band Calculations Using a Surrogate Machine Learning Model

We present the incorporation of a surrogate Gaussian process regression (GPR) atomistic model to greatly accelerate the rate of convergence of classical nudged elastic band (NEB) calculations. In our surrogate model approach, the cost of converging the elastic band no longer scales with the number of moving images on the path. This provides a far more efficient and robust transition state search. In contrast to a conventional NEB calculation, the algorithm presented here eliminates any need for manipulating the number of images to obtain a converged result. This is achieved by inventing a new convergence criteria that exploits the probabilistic nature of the GPR to use uncertainty estimates of all images in combination with the force in the saddle point in the target model potential. In conclusion, our method is an order of magnitude faster in terms of function evaluations than the conventional NEB method with no accuracy loss for the converged energy barrier values.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
NASA NTRS2012

Can Selforganizing Maps Accurately Predict Photometric Redshifts?

We present an unsupervised machine-learning approach that can be employed for estimating photometric redshifts. The proposed method is based on a vector quantization called the self-organizing-map (SOM) approach. A variety of photometrically derived input values were utilized from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey's main galaxy sample, luminous red galaxy, and quasar samples, along with the PHAT0 data set from the Photo-z Accuracy Testing project. Regression results obtained with this new approach were evaluated in terms of root-mean-square error (RMSE) to estimate the accuracy of the photometric redshift estimates. The results demonstrate competitive RMSE and outlier percentages when compared with several other popular approaches, such as artificial neural networks and Gaussian process regression. SOM RMSE results (using delta(z) = z(sub phot) - z(sub spec)) are 0.023 for the main galaxy sample, 0.027 for the luminous red galaxy sample, 0.418 for quasars, and 0.022 for PHAT0 synthetic data. The results demonstrate that there are nonunique solutions for estimating SOM RMSEs. Further research is needed in order to find more robust estimation techniques using SOMs, but the results herein are a positive indication of their capabilities when compared with other well-known methods

Way, Michael J.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Robust Deep Gaussian Process-Based Probabilistic Electrical Load Forecasting Against Anomalous Events

The abnormal events, such as the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic, can significantly change the load behaviors, leading to huge challenges for traditional short-term forecasting methods. This article proposes a robust deep Gaussian processes (DGP)-based probabilistic load forecasting method using a limited number of data. Since the proposed method only requires a limited number of training samples for load forecasting, it allows us to deal with extreme scenarios that cause short-term load behavior changes. In particular, the load forecasting at the beginning of abnormal event is cast as a regression problem with limited training samples and solved by double stochastic variational inference DGP. The mobility data are also utilized to deal with the uncertainties and pattern changes and enhance the flexibility of the forecasting model. The proposed method can quantify the uncertainties of load forecasting outcomes, which would be essential under uncertain inputs. Extensive comparison results with other state-of-the-art point and probabilistic forecasting methods show that our proposed approach can achieve high forecasting accuracies with only a limited number of data while maintaining the excellent performance of capturing the forecasting uncertainties.

anomalous events↗
DOE OSTI2026

Gaussian processes for inferring parton distributions

The extraction of parton distribution functions (PDFs) from experimental or lattice QCD data is an ill-posed inverse problem, where regularization strongly impacts both systematic uncertainties and the reliability of the results. We study a framework based on Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) to reconstruct PDFs from lattice QCD matrix elements. Within a Bayesian framework, Gaussian processes serve as flexible priors that encode uncertainties, correlations, and constraints without imposing rigid functional forms. We investigate a wide range of kernel choices, mean functions, and hyperparameter treatments. We quantify information gained from the data using the Kullback-Leibler divergence. Synthetic data tests demonstrate the consistency and robustness of the method. Our study establishes GPR as a systematic and non-parametric approach to PDF reconstruction, offering controlled uncertainty estimates and reduced model bias in lattice QCD analyses.

hadronic spectroscopy↗
DOE OSTI2024

A novel methodology for gamma-ray spectra dataset procurement over varying standoff distances and source activities

The adoption of machine learning approaches for gamma-ray spectroscopy has received considerable attention in the literature. Many studies have investigated the deployment of various algorithm architectures to a specific task. However, little attention has been afforded to the development of the datasets leveraged to train the models. Such training datasets typically span a set of environmental or detector parameters to encompass a problem space of interest to a user. Variations in these measurement parameters will also induce fluctuations in the detector response, including expected pile-up and ground scatter effects. Fundamental to this work is the understanding that 1) the underlying spectral shape varies as the measurement parameters change and 2) the statistical uncertainties associated with two spectra impact their level of similarity. While previous studies attribute some arbitrary discretization to the measurement parameters for the generation of their synthetic training data, this work introduces a principled methodology for efficient spectral-based discretization of a problem space. A signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) respective spectral comparison measure and a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model are used to predict the spectral similarity across a range of measurement parameters. This innovative approach effectively showcased its capability by dividing a problem space, ranging from 5 cm to 100 cm standoff distances and 5 μCi–100 μCi of 137 Cs, into three unique combinations of measurement parameters. The findings from this work will aid in creating more robust datasets, which incorporate many possible measurement scenarios, reduce the number of required experimental test set measurements, and possibly enable experimental training data collection for gamma-ray spectroscopy.

data science↗
DOE OSTI2022

Designing Monte Carlo Simulation and an Optimal Machine Learning to Optimize and Model Space Missions

This paper investigates applying artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms to attitude control system of satellites to optimally tune the controller using high performance computing. This methodology is applied to the Virtual Telescope for X-ray Observation mission, which is a precise formation of two separate spacecraft observing multiple objects in the space in the X-ray domain. The mission is divided into phases based on the instrumentation and the mission goal. To reach an stable precise formation robust to stochastic slew and slew rate (i.e., Euler angles and angular velocities) in a minimal constrained time T , consumed energy of the attitude control system, denoted as E, and root-mean-square state error of attitude control system, denoted as e, are minimized. Monte-Carlo simulation is used for the sensitivity analysis of optimization and designing a controller. Deep neural networks (DNN), Gaussian processes (GP), and support vector regression (SVR) learn this optimization as a surrogate model, while their hyperparameters are optimized in a novel approach. THETA supercomputer at Argonne Leadership Computing Facility (ALCF) is used for optimizing the hyperparameters of DNN. The surrogate model meets the requirements of the mission, and it shows a better performance over the optimization and Monte-Carlo. The optimal DNN can satisfy the mission requirements e and T while reducing E for 90% compared to the other given methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-Efficient Methods for Determining Flory–Huggins χ Parameters in Multicomponent Polymer Formulations

Polymer formulations are essential in diverse applications including personal care products, coatings, paints, adhesives, and plastic materials. Designing these formulations requires navigating large, complex design spaces, where phase and self-assembly behavior critically impact performance. The Flory–Huggins χ parameter, which quantifies segmental miscibility, is widely used to parametrize the excess free energy of mixing in formulation models. In this work, we introduce two data-efficient, top-down methods for estimating χ parameters using the Random Phase Approximation (RPA): (i) Boundary Nonlinear Regression (Boundary-NLR), which fits theoretical spinodal boundaries to experimental phase boundaries, and (ii) Surrogate Model Inverse Parameter Estimation (SMIPE), which uses a Gaussian Process Classifier to fit sparse phase maps via a surrogate model. Both methods allow rapid parametrization of polymer field-theoretic models without the need for additional experiments. We evaluate these approaches on data sets involving polymer–solvent–nonsolvent ternary mixtures and block copolymer–solvent systems, demonstrating their robustness to experimental noise and their relevance for real-world formulation design.

copolymers↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning Approach for Spatiotemporal Multivariate Optimization of Environmental Monitoring Sensor Locations

Abstract Long-term environmental monitoring is critical for managing the soil and groundwater at contaminated sites. Recent improvements in state-of-the-art sensor technology, communication networks, and artificial intelligence have created opportunities to modernize this monitoring activity for automated, fast, robust, and predictive monitoring. In such modernization, it is required that sensor locations be optimized to capture the spatiotemporal dynamics of all monitoring variables as well as to make it cost-effective. The legacy monitoring datasets of the target area are important to perform this optimization. In this study, we have developed a machine-learning approach to optimize sensor locations for soil and groundwater monitoring based on ensemble supervised learning and majority voting. For spatial optimization, Gaussian process regression (GPR) is used for spatial interpolation, while the majority voting is applied to accommodate the multivariate temporal dimension. Results show that the algorithms significantly outperform the random selection of the sensor locations for predictive spatiotemporal interpolation. While the method has been applied to a four-dimensional dataset (with two-dimensional space, time, and multiple contaminants), we anticipate that it can be generalizable to higher-dimensional datasets for environmental monitoring sensor location optimization.

Siddiquee, Masudur R.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Statistical Classification of Biosignature Information using Multiple Instrument Observations

The accurate identification of biosignatures (indications of life) from data taken from remote or in situ planetary exploration is one of the most important challenges in astrobiology, the interdisciplinary field examining habitability and the potential for extraterrestrial life. This study employs machine learning algorithms to optimize the identification of biosignatures, with an emphasis on those which are agnostic to a specific biochemical basis. We exploit the wealth of terrestrial data available from biogenic and abiogenic systems to enhance efficient feature prioritization. Our dataset, pulled from public databases and laboratory recorded measurements, includes elemental abundance, isotopic fractionation, and VNIR/Raman spectra The data curation process included standardization for detection limits and ranges. Subsequent feature extraction yielded detailed inputs for machine learning, including combinations of elemental content, isotopic ratios, and parameters of spectral peaks and troughs. Feature significance was evaluated across diverse machine learning methodologies, such as k-nearest neighbors, logistic regression, Random Forest, support vector machines, and Gaussian Naïve Bayes, along with a combined voting classifier. We utilized Receiver Operating Characteristic Area Under the Curve (ROC AUC) across 2,000 50% test-train splits as a robust metric of model performance. Results revealed a promising ROC AUC of 0.853 for the combined voting classifier. Removing elemental abundance data notably reduced model accuracy (13% decrease in AUC), highlighting its critical role in biosignature detection. Several other individual data features exhibited significance within their respective data types, offering additional granularity. This research fortifies the relevance of machine learning to astrobiology, potentially enhancing life detection missions by allowing algorithmic prioritization of high-interest samples for further investigation. Future work will refine data standardization, expand the dataset to include more terrestrial systems, and incorporate convolutional neural networks for spectral feature extraction. The potential for public data sharing is also under exploration, reinforcing our commitment to collective scientific advancement.

Statistical↗
DOE OSTI2026

Inferring performance metrics for laser direct drive experiments on OMEGA

Quantifying performance improvements on the OMEGA laser facility requires robust inference of established no-alpha performance metrics, which requires, at minimum, a model to infer the shocked fuel mass and pressure of the confined fusion plasma. In this work, we describe the methodology used to infer performance metrics on OMEGA and present the current state-of-the art model used to infer these metrics from OMEGA experiments. In particular, since neutron images of cryogenic implosions are not available on OMEGA at present, we present how x-ray sizes are determined on OMEGA using a Gaussian Process regression model and how the neutron production region's size is inferred from them. As a result, we end by benchmarking the model using synthetic data and 1-D LILAC simulations and test its experimental self-consistency across available x-ray diagnostic channels.

Gopalaswamy, V. [Laboratory for Laser Energetics, ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty-Aware Machine Learning for Small-Angle X-ray Scattering Analysis in Autonomous Experimentation

Small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) is a powerful high-throughput characterization tool for probing nanoscale structure in native sample environments, providing real-time morphological information such as nanoparticle size and shape during synthesis. However, automated SAXS data analysis for extracting meaningful structural parameters is non-trivial and remains a bottleneck in closed-loop experimentation towards autonomous materials discovery, which demands fast, reliable, and uncertainty-aware data analysis. Here, we develop a machine-learning approach for automated SAXS analysis tailored to closed-loop nanoparticle synthesis. A Random Forest (RF) regression model is trained on 100,000 synthetic SAXS curves generated from polydisperse spherical nanoparticles with realistic background contributions. Using normalized one-dimensional SAXS intensity profiles as input, the RF model directly predicts nanoparticle radius, size polydispersity, and background parameters, while the ensemble standard deviation across trees provides built-in uncertainty quantification (UQ). On synthetic data, we show that combining fit-quality metrics (R 2 , MAE) with thresholds on prediction uncertainty reliably identifies accurate parameter estimates without access to ground truth. We then apply the trained model to 365 experimental SAXS profiles of citrate-reduced gold nanoparticles synthesized using an automated droplet-flow microreactor with in situ SAXS at a synchrotron beamline, classifying the results into high- and low-confidence subsets based on UQ metrics. Finally, we integrate RF-based SAXS analysis into a simulated closed-loop optimization campaign using Gaussian process Bayesian optimization to minimize nanoparticle polydispersity, benchmarking against conventional automated Levenberg–Marquardt fitting. The RF-guided campaign exhibits substantially faster convergence and lower relative opportunity cost (∼0.07 vs ∼0.3), demonstrating that uncertainty-aware machine-learning SAXS analysis significantly enhances the efficiency and robustness of autonomous nanomaterials synthesis workflows.

Bayesian optimization↗