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35 records · Page 2

Transportation Hub Infrastructure Expansion: Decision Support Under Uncertainty

The Athena project (www.athena-mobility.org) has worked to investigate the relationship between the Dallas-Fort Worth Airport (DFW) and the greater Dallas area in order to better understand and therefore better inform future decision-making regarding the critical infrastructure that influence mobility between the airport and the city. Through this work, infrastructure related to curbside pickup and drop-off, parking, public transit, and the road network congestion were identified as critical to the operation of the DFW transportation hub. The infrastructure analysis and expansion aspect of the Athena project is focused on the restructuring of the CTA curb as a hierarchical curb and the building or repurposing of parking infrastructure as the interplay between these two areas. Many sources of uncertainty exist that may impact future airport and transportation hub operations, such as passenger volume growth, population demographic changes over time, electric vehicle (EV) adoption rates, and autonomous vehicle (AV) adoption rates. Due to these sources of uncertainty, we have selected for our research a modeling framework that can capture various types of uncertainty and hedge against those uncertainties in the optimization process. We analyze road network and curb congestion, the rise of transportation networking companies, trends in parking usage, existing policies around this infrastructure, airport revenue streams, and other contributing factors to enable infrastructure decision making with less uncertainty. To accomplish this wholistic analysis, we have developed a novel multi-stage, multi-period stochastic optimization model which considers the airport's decisions from 2025-2045 under different possible future macro trajectories and day-to-day variations in operational conditions captured as "annual representation of operations" scenarios with respective probabilities. This model has also been designed to leverage the outputs of various efforts under the Athena project to create a combined decision framework for infrastructure decisions. These various efforts include the route optimization model, the ASPIRES simulation, the mode choice model, and the SUMO traffic simulation. Our computational experiments of this system at scale have resulted in a working version of our infrastructure model which enables the explicit representation and consideration of various sources of uncertainty in the decision process to enable robust, flexible decision-making. This model has been effectively run on NREL's HPC system, Eagle, with large numbers of stochastic scenarios and shows promise as a scalable tool for robust consideration of uncertainties in airport planning. We have tested our model using 30,240 operational circumstances in total, resulting in a problem with more 200 million variables. This model was solved in several different configurations, and a workflow to simulate the performance of the infrastructure model results was developed and deployed. In general, our results indicate that a combination of remote parking, remote curb infrastructure, and dynamic pricing can generate revenue, reduce emissions, accommodate emerging technologies such as AVs and EVs, and manage airport passenger growth over time. We note the success of the proposed strategy depends on the data collection and forecasting abilities of DFW. We have also seen that the AV adoption by TNCs might necessitate larger amounts of remote curb. The results of this work inform strategies for airport infrastructure decision making, as well as demonstrate the value of an adaptable model, but also indicate that there are avenues remaining where further research would be of value.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Scaling of silicon nanoparticle growth in low temperature flowing plasmas

Low temperature plasmas are an emerging method to synthesize high quality nanoparticles (NPs). An established and successful technique to produce NPs is using a capacitively coupled plasma (CCP) in cylindrical geometry. Although a robust synthesis technique, optimizing or specifying NP properties using CCPs, is challenging. In this paper, results from a computational investigation for the growth of silicon NPs in flowing inductively coupled plasmas (ICPs) using Ar/SiH 4 gas mixtures of up to a few Torr are discussed. ICPs produce more locally constrained and quiescent plasma potentials. These positive plasma potentials produce an electrostatic trap for negatively charged NPs, which can significantly extend the residence time of NPs in the plasma, which in turn provides a controllable period for particle growth. The computational platforms used in this study consist of a two-dimensional plasma hydrodynamics model, a three-dimensional nanoparticle growth and trajectory tracking model, and a molecular dynamics simulation for deriving reactive sticking coefficients of silane radicals on Si NPs. Trends for the nanoparticle growth as a function of SiH 4 inlet fraction, gas residence time, energy deposition per particle, pressure, and reactor diameter are discussed. The general path for particle synthesis is the trapping of small NPs in the positive electrostatic potential, followed by entrainment in the gas flow upon reaching a critical particle size. Optimizing or controlling NP synthesis then depends on the spatial distribution of plasma potential, the density of growth species, and the relative time that particles spend in the electrostatic trap and flowing through higher densities of growth species upon leaving the trap.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

CRCNS22 Learning Rules in the Hippocampus and their Mapping to Neuromorphic Systems (Final Technical Report)

Large scale biologically-realistic computational models are key to investigating the interplay between structure and function in nervous systems, thus paving the way to new clinical methods and neuro-inspired computing solutions. This project focuses on the hippocampus, in particular the CA3-CA1 regions, due to their role in associative learning and memory, pattern separation and completion, and spatial navigation. Investigations into the neuronal organization and learning rule(s) of this circuit can shed light into how declarative memories are formed, stored, recalled and forgotten and inform computational, experimental and clinical neuroscience work. Our project aims at developing a novel data-driven methodology supported by a broad heterogeneous base of neuroscience experimental knowledge and inspired from advances in computer science and engineering. Specifically, this work will benchmark existing and new learning rules within a full-scale spiking neural network simulation of the CA3-CA1 region. The model will be based on an open-source repository, called the Hippocampome, which contains neuronal morphologies, firing patterns, synapse probabilities, and most other required parameters for all known neuron types in the rodent hippocampal formation. The model will be first trained in a supervised fashion for associative memory tasks using backpropagation through time traditionally used in computer science, enhanced with a new technique called the surrogate gradient method. This optimization method will be used to obtain a global loss minimization, but it is not biologically inspired as it assumes the use of data not locally available to the synapses. However, we propose its use as a benchmarking tool, to compare the training performance of local biologically plausible and hardware-mappable learning rules at scale. New rules or combinations will be proposed and tested as needed, based on the obtained results. Progress in this area will also drive the development of novel hardware-mappable algorithms for continual lifelong learning and categorization of new events from few presented examples. This project goes beyond the existing state-of-the-art by looking at large scale realistic neuronal circuits as networks trainable via global optimization methods such as surrogate gradient descent. The objective function of the brain that supports learning is largely unknown, but it is likely that it operates through local learning rules. Studying network trajectories around local minima as proposed in this work represents a useful strategy for understanding whether a network is training by using a specific (set of) learning rule(s). Starting from a completely untrained network is a challenging test since it is difficult to determine how the learning rule affects the trajectory of the network. This interdisciplinary project will help understand what rule governs learning in these regions or if multiple learning rules are involved. The work will develop a robust methodology to measure if the network is converging to the target solution, oscillating around it, or diverging away.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

High Performance Adaptive Physics Refinement to Enable Large-Scale Tracking of Cancer Cell Trajectory

The ability to track simulated cancer cells through the circulatory system, important for developing a mechanistic understanding of metastatic spread, pushes the limits of today's supercomputers by requiring the simulation of large fluid volumes at cellular-scale resolution. To overcome this challenge, we introduce a new adaptive physics refinement (APR) method that captures cellular-scale interaction across large domains and leverages a hybrid CPU-GPU approach to maximize performance. Through algorithmic advances that integrate multi-physics and multi-resolution models, we establish a finely resolved window with explicitly modeled cells coupled to a coarsely resolved bulk fluid domain. In this work we present multiple validations of the APR framework by comparing against fully resolved fluid-structure interaction methods and employ techniques, such as latency hiding and maximizing memory bandwidth, to effectively utilize heterogeneous node architectures. Collectively, these computational developments and performance optimizations provide a robust and scalable framework to enable system-level simulations of cancer cell transport.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Trajectory Shaper: A Solution for Disrupted Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control

Cooperative adaptive cruise control (CACC) can effectively reduce energy consumption, alleviate traffic congestion, and enhance safety. However, communication-related constraints and uncooperative vehicle users can disrupt CACC during real-world operations, significantly undermining the putative benefits of CACC. To alleviate the negative impacts of disrupted CACC, this study develops the trajectory shaper (TS) methods as backup solutions for two scenarios: (i) communication between vehicles is infeasible, and vehicles execute adaptive cruise control (ACC) using local sensor measurements; (ii) follower vehicles reject forming a cooperative platoon and execute their local distributed controllers using the information attained via communication. When communication is infeasible, a distributed TS is devised on each vehicle to modify the sensor measurements, enabling safe and efficient ACC operations. When communication is available but uncooperative agents are involved, the lead vehicle of the platoon executes a centralized TS to modify the information shared with uncooperative agents, achieving optimal platoon-level performance. The centralized and distributed TSs are implemented based on the model predictive control algorithms to yield optimal modifications on input information. Robustness is also factored to tackle model uncertainties during TS operations to ensure safety and efficiency. Numerical experiments validate the control performance of the proposed TSs.

Zhou, Anye [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000301455579)↗

Multi-Factor-Coupled, Ahead-of-Time Aggregation of Power Flexibility Under Forecast Uncertainty

The increasing penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) is significantly reshaping the role of distribution systems under active energy management. To aggregate the active-reactive power flexibility of DERs dispersed at the feeder and provide capacity support to the transmission system, it is essential to efficiently identify feasible substation power injection trajectories. This paper introduces a novel ahead-of-time flexibility characterization method to address it. First, a polyhedral non-feeder-level power flexibility region (PFR) is constructed, accounting for various time-dependent, power-coupled, and forecast error uncertainties. Then, a polyhedral feeder-level PFR is analytically derived through a coordinate transformation, which can reveal the uncertainty propagation path, i.e., how uncertainty applies to the feeder-level PFR. To facilitate the high-level application, a tractable chance-constrained Chebyshev centering optimization model is further developed to find a ball-shaped inner approximation of the feeder-level PFR. Finally, the proposed method is validated on a modified IEEE 123-bus test system. Here, both theoretical and experimental results show that, with appropriate robustness parameter settings, the proposed method can make the approximated PFR less conservative with abundant robustness against forecast error uncertainty.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A windowed mean trajectory approximation for condensed phase dynamics

We propose a trajectory-based quasi-classical method for approximating dynamics in condensed phase systems. Building upon the previously developed optimized mean trajectory approximation that has been used to compute linear and nonlinear spectra, we borrow some ideas from filtering trajectory methods to obtain a novel semiclassical method for the dynamical propagation of density matrices. This new approximation is tested rigorously against standard multistate electronic models, spin-boson models, and models of the Fenna–Matthews–Olson complex. For dissipative systems, the current method is significantly better or as good as many other semiclassical methods available, especially at low temperatures and for off-diagonal density matrix elements, whereas for scattering models, the current method bears similar limitations as mean-field propagation schemes. All results are tested against the numerically exact hierarchical equations of motion method. In conclusion, the new method shows excellent agreement across various parameter regimes with numerically exact results, highlighting the robustness and accuracy of our approach.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Toward fusion plasma scenario planning for NSTX-U using machine-learning-accelerated models

One of the most promising devices for realizing power production through nuclear fusion is the tokamak. To maximize performance, it is preferable that tokamak reactors achieve advanced operating scenarios characterized by good plasma confinement, improved magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) stability, and a largely non-inductively driven plasma current. Such scenarios could enable steady-state reactor operation with high \emph{fusion gain} --- the ratio of produced fusion power to the external power provided through the plasma boundary. Precise and robust control of the evolution of the plasma boundary shape as well as the spatial distribution of the plasma current, density, temperature, and rotation will be essential to achieving and maintaining such scenarios. The complexity of the evolution of tokamak plasmas, arising due to nonlinearities and coupling between various parameters, motivates the use of model-based control algorithms that can account for the system dynamics. In this work, a learning-based accelerated model trained on data from the National Spherical Torus Experiment Upgrade (NSTX-U) is employed to develop planning and control strategies for regulating the density and temperature profile evolution around desired trajectories. The proposed model combines empirical scaling laws developed across multiple devices with neural networks trained on empirical data from NSTX-U and a database of first-principles-based computationally intensive simulations. The reduced execution time of the accelerated model will enable practical application of optimization algorithms and reinforcement learning approaches for scenario planning and control development. An initial demonstration of applying optimization approaches to the learning-based model is presented, including a strategy for mitigating the effect of leaving the finite validity range of the accelerated model. The approach shows promise for actuator planning between experiments and in real-time.

machine learning↗

Sensor enabled data-driven predictive analytics for modeling and control with high penetration of DERs in distribution systems

The electric power grid is undergoing a tremendous transformation due to the increasing penetration of renewable energy resources beginning with wind and more recently with the distributed energy resources (DERs) such as solar and battery storage. DERs have dramatically changed the role of the distribution systems in the overall power grid, and they are expected to contribute a significant portion of power generation in the future. If current trends for DERs continue, system operation and control will need to change dramatically for improved grid reliability and resiliency. As renewable resources increase in penetration, new and challenging operational, planning, and design problems are expected to emerge. Some of the key challenges that arise in the planning and operation of the future grid are: 1) Quantifying the impact of high DER penetration in distribution systems on bulk grid behavior over multiple time scales. 2) Identifying whether a particular DER configuration/settings have a large impact on the overall grid behavior. These challenges can be addressed in an offline manner using detailed T&D grid models and they can also be addressed in an online manner using sensor measurements. In particular, the advancement and planned growth in sensor technology in power grid over various voltage levels provide us with a unique opportunity to tackle these challenges from a data analytic perspective without needing detailed T&D grid models. A few questions that naturally arise when addressing the challenges from DERs using sensor data are: 1) How can we use limited sensor measurements to monitor & control voltage stability and small signal stability of the bulk system? 2) How can we ensure that the developed data analytic methods are robust to data availability and quality issues? 3) How can we compute the developed analytics in a scalable manner using streaming measurements? In this project, we addressed the aforementioned challenges arising from DERs and answered the questions raised above on how to effectively use the sensor measurements to enhance the reliability and performance of the electric grid. Thus, the overarching goal of this project is to develop effective reduced/representative system models from data that make the computational complexity sufficiently manageable so as to be useful to simulate, analyze, and even control complex non-linear power systems dynamics with large penetrations of DERs. In order to achieve the objective, the project team established a four-fold technical approach 1) Formulated a combined transmission-distribution co-simulation framework for data generation and validation, 2) Derived reduced/representative models of power systems based on data-driven methods for efficient computation and appropriate representation of system behavior, 3) Developed data driven characterization of power system behavior based on transfer operator theory, machine learning and optimization for model estimation, 4) Incorporated a scalable data management and processing architecture using distributed Kafka streaming applications that coordinate input data streams to the developed data analytics. The key accomplishments of the project are: 1) Development of a scalable multi-timescale T&D co-simulation framework (both for steady state and for dynamic co-simulation) using commercial solvers (PSSE and GridLAB-D). The steady-state T&D co-simulation interface is shared with our industry partner (PJM). 2) A structured reduced order dynamic model of distribution systems that can represent partial motor stalling along with a systematic procedure to derive the model parameters. 3) A PMU based online method to monitor, localize and mitigate fault-induced delayed voltage recovery using DER reactive support and load control in distribution systems. 4) Development of linear operator based robust methodologies for dynamic state estimation, uncertainty quantification, system identification and trajectory prediction for power system dynamics. 5) An adaptive damping control for utilizing wind energy resources to provide oscillation damping and system stability. 6) Implementation of Kafka-based framework for efficient processing of streaming data using Linux-based local virtual environment.

DER integration↗

Uncertainty quantification of a physics-informed model based on sparse identification of a Thermal Energy Distribution System

Integrated energy systems (IES)s are crucial for enhancing the economy and efficiency of power generation sources (e.g., nuclear energy) necessary to unleash American energy dominance. These systems can be integrated with thermal energy storage (TES) and intermittent renewable energies to optimize overall energy use, peak-load regulation, and demand-side responses. However, the stabilization of energy generation, transport, and utilization introduces operational complexities that exceed the challenges of managing each sub-component individually. Currently, though IESs rely on human operators for efficiency and stability, reducing human error risk and enhancing performance through automation is highly desirable. Recent advances at Idaho National Laboratory have demonstrated successful control of the Thermal Energy Distributed System (TEDS). However, the automatic control system depends on a deterministic Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics with Control (SINDyC) model, which are trained based on simulation data from physics-based simulations. Because of uncertainties in physics-based simulation, SINDyC model results in large discrepancies against experimental data and cannot be reliably used in automatic control. In this paper, we present an innovative approach to address these discrepancies by quantifying uncertainties and developing a more robust model. We first generated trajectories by using first-principles physics codes to encapsulate the experiment. Next, we trained thousands of models by randomly sampling these trajectories. We then collapsed all those models into one probabilistic SINDyC by fitting a multivariate Gaussian distribution onto the resulting coefficient’s distribution. Despite its simplicity, our approach successfully produced 95% confidence intervals that captured the experimental trajectories. It even did so with a higher probability and better U-pooling score across six of the seven relevant quantities of interest (QoIs), as compared to other classical approaches. In conclusion, ongoing research is focusing on generating new experimental trajectories to validate this approach, and on employing Bayesian calibration to refine parametric uncertainties and guide future model development efforts.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Evaluation of partial volume correction and analysis of longitudinal [ 18 F]GTP1 tau PET imaging in Alzheimer's disease using linear mixed-effects models

Purpose: We evaluated the impact of partial volume correction (PVC) methods on the quantification of longitudinal [ 18 F]GTP1 tau positron-emission tomography (PET) in Alzheimer's disease and the suitability of describing the tau pathology burden temporal trajectories using linear mixed-effects models (LMEM). Methods: We applied van Cittert iterative deconvolution (VC), 2-compartment, and 3-compartment, and the geometric transfer matrix plus region-based voxelwise methods to data acquired in an Alzheimer's disease natural history study over 18 months at a single imaging site. We determined the optimal PVC method by comparing the standardized uptake value ratio change (%ΔSUVR) between diagnostic and tau burden–level groups and the longitudinal repeatability derived from the LMEM. The performance of LMEM analysis for calculating %ΔSUVR was evaluated in a natural history study and in a multisite clinical trial of semorinemab in prodromal to mild Alzheimer's disease by comparing results to traditional per-visit estimates. Results: The VC, 2-compartment, and 3-compartment PVC methods had similar performance, whereas region-based voxelwise overcorrected regions with a higher tau burden. The lowest within-subject variability and acceptable group separation scores were observed without PVC. The LMEM-derived %ΔSUVR values were similar to the per-visit estimates with lower variability. Conclusion: The results indicate that the tested PVC methods do not offer a clear advantage or improvement over non-PVC images for the quantification of longitudinal [ 18 F]GTP1 PET data. LMEM offers a robust framework for the longitudinal tau PET quantification with low longitudinal test–retest variability. Clinical trial registration: NCT02640092 and NCT03289143.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Higher-order interaction effects among operating conditions and feedstocks shape reactor microbiomes and fatty acid production profiles

Arrested anaerobic digestion (AAD) offers a promising route for producing fatty acids (FAs) from organic residues, yet optimal conditions for selectively generating medium-chain fatty acids (MCFAs) remain poorly defined. Here, we systematically evaluated the main and interaction effects of pH (5, 7, 9), feedstock (food waste, manure), temperature (35 and 45 °C), and inoculum source on microbiome composition and FA production. Anaerobic digester sludge and a novel bison rumen inoculum were compared. Significant higher-order interactions among operating parameters governed FA profiles and microbiome structure. Butyric acid production was driven by a three-way interaction among pH, feedstock, and temperature (p < 0.001), with maximum concentrations achieved in food waste reactors at pH 5.0 and 35 °C (1.2 ± 0.1 g L −1 with sludge and 1.1 ± 0.3 g L −1 with rumen). MCFA production exhibited significant four-way interactions (p < 0.1 to p < 0.001). At 45 °C and pH 5.0, inoculum source tuned MCFA selectivity: sludge favored pentanoic acid (0.4 ± 0.1 g L −1 ), whereas rumen favored hexanoic and heptanoic acids (up to 0.4 ± 0.2 g L −1 ). Manure reactors produced < 0.2 g L −1 MCFAs under all conditions. Genera, including Megasphaera, Prevotella, and Lactobacillus, were associated with production of specific MCFAs. PICRUSt2-based pathway predictions were consistent with MCFA production patterns and suggested a potential role for lactic acid–driven chain elongation pathways. This study provides insights into how interacting operating conditions shape AAD microbiomes, their FA profiles, and advances the trajectory of research aimed at engineering robust and controllable microbiomes for waste valorization.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Space Mission Options for Reconnaissance and Mitigation of Asteroid 2024 YR4

Near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR 4 was discovered on 2024-12-27 and its probability of Earth impact in December 2032 peaked at ~3% on 2025-02-18. Additional observations ruled out Earth impact by 2025-02-23. However, the probability of lunar impact in December 2032 then rose, reaching ~4% by the end of the apparition in May 2025. James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) observations on 2025-03-26 estimated the asteroid’s diameter at 60 ± 7 m. Studies of 2024 YR 4 ’s potential lunar impact effects suggest lunar ejecta could increase micrometeoroid debris flux in low Earth orbit up to 1000 times above background levels over just a few days, possibly threatening astronauts and spacecraft. In this work, we present options for space missions to 2024 YR 4 that could be utilized if lunar impact is confirmed. Here, we cover flyby & rendezvous reconnaissance, deflection, and robust disruption of the asteroid. We examine both rapid-response and delayed launch options through 2032. We evaluate chemical and solar electric propulsion, various launch vehicles, optimized deep space maneuvers, and gravity assists. Re-tasking extant spacecraft and using built spacecraft not yet launched are also considered. The best reconnaissance mission options launch in late 2028, leaving only approximately three years for development at the time of this writing in August 2025. Deflection missions were assessed and appear impractical. However, kinetic robust disruption missions are available with launches between April 2030 and April 2032. Nuclear robust disruption missions are also available with launches between late 2029 and late 2031. Finally, even if lunar impact is ruled out there is significant potential utility in deploying a reconnaissance mission to characterize the asteroid.

Asteroid deflection↗

Accelerated computation of lattice thermal conductivity using neural network interatomic potentials

We report with the development of the density functional theory (DFT) and ever-increasing computational capacity, an accurate prediction of lattice thermal conductivity based on the Boltzmann transport theory becomes computationally feasible, contributing to a fundamental understanding of thermal conductivity as well as a choice of the optimal materials for specific applications. However, steep costs in evaluating third-order force constants limit the theoretical investigation to crystals with high symmetry and few atoms in the unit cell. Currently, machine learning potentials are garnering attention as a computationally efficient high-fidelity model of DFT, and several studies have demonstrated that the lattice thermal conductivity could be computed accurately via the machine learning potentials. However, test materials were mostly crystals with high symmetries, and the applicability of machine learning potentials to a wide range of materials has yet to be demonstrated. Furthermore, establishing a standard training set that provides consistent accuracy and computational efficiencies across a wide range of materials would be useful. To address these issues, herein we compute lattice thermal conductivities at 300 K using neural network interatomic potentials. As test materials, we select 25 materials with diverse symmetries and a wide range of lattice thermal conductivities between 10 -1 and 10 3 Wm -1 K -1 . Among various choices of training sets, we find that molecular dynamics trajectories at 50–700 K consistently provide results at par with DFT for the test materials. In contrast to pure DFT approaches, the computational cost in the present approach is uniform over the test materials, yielding a speed gain of 2–10 folds. When a smaller reduced training set is used, the relative efficiency increases by up to ~50 folds without sacrificing accuracy significantly. The current work will broaden the application scope of machine learning potentials by establishing a robust framework for accurately computing lattice thermal conductivity with machine learning potentials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Reconstructing magnetic deflections from sets of proton images using differential evolution

Proton imaging is a powerful technique for imaging electromagnetic fields within an experimental volume, in which spatial variations in proton fluence are a result of deflections to proton trajectories due to interaction with the fields. When deflections are large, proton trajectories can overlap, and this nonlinearity creates regions of greatly increased proton fluence on the image, known as caustics. The formation of caustics has been a persistent barrier to reconstructing the underlying fields from proton images. We have developed a new method for reconstructing the path-integrated magnetic fields, which begins to address the problem posed by caustics. Our method uses multiple proton images of the same object, each image at a different energy, to fill in the information gaps and provide some uniqueness when reconstructing caustic features. We use a differential evolution algorithm to iteratively estimate the underlying deflection function, which accurately reproduces the observed proton fluence at multiple proton energies simultaneously. We test this reconstruction method using synthetic proton images generated for three different, cylindrically symmetric field geometries at various field amplitudes and levels of proton statistics and present reconstruction results from a set of experimental images. Here, the method we propose requires no assumption of deflection linearity and can reliably solve for fields underlying linear, nonlinear, and caustic proton image features for the selected geometries and is shown to be fairly robust to noise in the input proton intensity.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Robust Molecular Predictive Methods for Novel Polymer Discovery and Applications

Polymeric materials are ubiquitous in modern society and they play an instrumental role in almost all industries, undoubtedly including the energy and environment sectors. Increased demand of energy and awareness to sustainability both necessitates the development of novel polymers with enhanced properties. Unfortunately, their structural and behavioral complexity render such discovery challenging and impeded. To address this problem, scientists are developing various computational modeling techniques and leveraging their power to depict the relationship between structural characteristics of polymers and their properties (such as rheological behaviors), and use such prediction to guide the design and syntheses of novel polymeric materials with enhanced performances. Unfortunately, predicting the relationships between polymer structure and composition with rheological properties via atomistic modeling is still a major challenge because of the extended time and length scales involved. Studying dynamic shear viscosity and linear viscoelasticity using molecular models requires capabilities that have been elusive, including representation of large molecular weight chains with an effective internal scale capable of describing entanglement, shear-rates that are in the s-1 scale with accurate quantitative stresses, and chemically-realistic combinations of both homogeneous and heterogeneous systems. Motivated by these unmet challenges, the overall technical objective of this DOE-STTR Phase II project is to develop robust molecular predictive methods for advanced polymer discovery and applications and especially for designing and demonstrating the “smart” polymer-based waterflooding enhanced oil recovery (EOR) process. In particular, we apply state-of-the-art molecular modeling methods developed by our academic partner, Materials Stimulation Center (MSC) at California Institute of Technology (Caltech), to facilitate and accelerate the experimental discovery processes. During the Phase I of this project, we had focused on development and demonstration of the molecular modeling methods to describe rheological properties of non-Newtonian polymer fluids, and to improve our fundamental understandings of shear-thickening mechanism and kinetics. In Phase II, we further apply the theoretical models to guide our experimental programs to improve our design of smart rheology modifier (SRM) polymers and their optimization for EOR. Specifically, we have three objectives in the Phase II study: (1) to further improve out computational modeling methods, coupling with the advanced machine learning algorithms; (2) to develop cost-effective and efficient SRM-flooding process suitable for EOR applications under typical reservoir conditions; and (3) to further explore the application of our molecular predictive models for innovative material discovery in other industrial applications. The recent development of our multiscale predictive framework allows the successful prediction of rheological properties from the chemical structure for polymers of experimentally relevant molecular weights, and provides an in-silico machine learning engine for screening novel compositions and structures with optimized non-Newtonian response, required for both shear-thinning and shear-thickening applications. Our framework provides: (1) procedures and tools for systematic coarsening from atomistic models and reverse mapping of coarse-grain models to atomistic, (2) unique ab initio methods to characterize the atomistic origin of colloidal and interfacial interactions and phenomena, (3) systematic structure and composition builders based on practical descriptors that drive rheological changes in polymer melts and diluted polymer mixtures, (4) a rheological properties engine capable of predicting viscosity in the zero-shear limit and under realistic dynamic conditions (for shear-rates commensurate with experiments) for large heterogeneous systems, (5) coarse-grain force fields with improved non-bond descriptions based on accurate quantum mechanics, (6) an in-silico screening machine learning engine that feeds from the systematic model builders to cover the descriptors search space, computes the rheological properties from converged trajectories spanning sub-milliseconds and ranks them for each structure/composition using an automated viscosity-vs-shear rate fitness function that can be tuned for shear-thickening, shear-thinning and other rheological responses.

02 PETROLEUM↗

NASA analysis of space mission options for the 2025 planetary defense conference hypothetical asteroid impact threat scenario

The 2025 Planetary Defense Conference (PDC) hypothetical asteroid impact threat exercise is being conducted in coordination with the United Nations-endorsed Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG), exercising SMPAG's processes for assessing space mission options and communicating to decision makers. Here, in this paper, we describe the work performed by our NASA-led team and present the results we contributed to the SMPAG effort for the exercise. Our NASA-led team assessed mission options for asteroid reconnaissance (flyby and rendezvous), deflection, and robust disruption using several viable techniques: kinetic impactors, ion beam deflection, and nuclear explosive devices. Our simulations and analyses considered how much change-in-velocity an asteroid can tolerate before fragmentation onset, and we worked towards establishing requirements for robustly disrupting an asteroid. Heuristics informed by the simulation results are incorporated into optimization of deflection and disruption mission campaign options. Finally, we make some observations about useful generalizations from these results with potential applicability to any planetary defense scenario.

Asteroid deflection↗