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Strategic Petroleum Reserve Cavern Leaching Monitoring CY20

The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is a crude oil storage system run by the U.S. Department of Energy. The reserve consists of 60 active storage caverns spread across four sites in Louisiana and Texas, near the Gulf of Mexico. Beginning in 2016, the SPR began executing U.S. congressionally mandated oil sales. The configuration of the reserve, with a total capacity of greater than 700 MMB, requires raw water to be used instead of saturated brine for oil withdrawals such as for sales. All sales will produce leaching within the caverns used for oil delivery. Twenty-five caverns had a combined total of over 39 MMB of water injected in CY 20 as part of the Exchange for Storage program; oil was withdrawn in the same manner as for congressionally mandated sales. Leaching effects were monitored in these caverns to understand how the oil withdrawals may impact the long-term integrity of the caverns. While frequent sonars are the best way to monitor changes in cavern shape, they can be resource intensive for the number of caverns involved in sales and exchanges. An intermediate option is to model the leaching effects and see if any concerning features develop. The leaching effects were modeled here using the Sandia Solution Mining Code (SANSMIC) . The results indicate that leaching induced features are not of concern in the majority of the caverns, 19 of 25. Six caverns, BH-107, BH-113, BH-114, BM-4, BM-106, and WH-114 have features that may grow with additional leaching and should be monitored as leaching continues in those caverns. Ten caverns had post sale sonars that were compared with SANSMIC results. SANSMIC was able to capture the leaching well , particularly the formation of shelves and flares. A deviation in the SANSMIC and sonar cavern shapes was observed near the cavern floor in caverns with significant floor rise, a process not captured by SANSMIC. These results suggest SANSMIC is a useful tool for monitoring changes in cavern shape due to leaching effects related to sales and exchanges.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Strategic Petroleum Reserve Cavern Leaching Monitoring CY21

Th e U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is a crude oil storage system administered by the U.S. Department of Energy. The reserve consists of 60 active storage caverns located in underground salt domes spread across four sites in Louisiana and Texas, near the Gulf of Mexico. Beginning in 2016, the SPR started executing C ongressionally mandated oil sales. The configuration of the reserve, with a total capacity of greater than 700 million barrels ( MMB ) , re quires that unsaturated water (referred to herein as ?raw? water) is injected into the storage caverns to displace oil for sales , exchanges, and drawdowns . As such, oil sales will produce cavern growth to the extent that raw water contacts the salt cavern walls and dissolves (leaches) the surrounding salt before reaching brine saturation. SPR injected a total of over 45 MMB of raw water into twenty - six caverns as part of oil sales in CY21 . Leaching effects were monitored in these caverns to understand how the sales operations may impact the long - term integrity of the caverns. While frequent sonars are the most direct means to monitor changes in cavern shape, they can be resource intensive for the number of caverns involved in sales and exchanges. An interm ediate option is to model the leaching effects and see if any concerning features develop. The leaching effects were modeled here using the Sandia Solution Mining Code , SANSMIC . The modeling results indicate that leaching - induced features do not raise co ncern for the majority of the caverns, 15 of 26. Eleven caverns, BH - 107, BH - 110, BH - 112, BH - 113, BM - 109, WH - 11, WH - 112, WH - 114, BC - 17, BC - 18, and BC - 19 have features that may grow with additional leaching and should be monitored as leaching continues in th ose caverns. Additionally, BH - 114, BM - 4, and BM - 106 were identified in previous leaching reports for recommendation of monitoring. Nine caverns had pre - and post - leach sonars that were compared with SANSMIC results. Overall, SANSMIC was able to capture the leaching well. A deviation in the SANSMIC and sonar cavern shapes was observed near the cavern floor in caverns with significant floor rise, a process not captured by SANSMIC. These results validate that SANSMIC continues to serve as a useful tool for mon itoring changes in cavern shape due to leaching effects related to sales and exchanges.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Foodborne illness outbreaks linked to unpasteurised milk and relationship to changes in state laws – United States, 1998–2018

Consumption of unpasteurised milk in the United States has presented a public health challenge for decades because of the increased risk of pathogen transmission causing illness outbreaks. We analysed Foodborne Disease Outbreak Surveillance System data to characterise unpasteurised milk outbreaks. Using Poisson and negative binomial regression, we compared the number of outbreaks and outbreak-associated illnesses between jurisdictions grouped by legal status of unpasteurised milk sale based on a May 2019 survey of state laws. During 2013–2018, 75 outbreaks with 675 illnesses occurred that were linked to unpasteurised milk; of these, 325 illnesses (48%) were among people aged 0–19 years. Of 74 single-state outbreaks, 58 (78%) occurred in states where the sale of unpasteurised milk was expressly allowed. Compared with jurisdictions where retail sales were prohibited (n = 24), those where sales were expressly allowed (n = 27) were estimated to have 3.2 (95% CI 1.4–7.6) times greater number of outbreaks; of these, jurisdictions where sale was allowed in retail stores (n = 14) had 3.6 (95% CI 1.3–9.6) times greater number of outbreaks compared with those where sale was allowed on-farm only (n = 13). This study supports findings of previously published reports indicating that state laws resulting in increased availability of unpasteurised milk are associated with more outbreak-associated illnesses and outbreaks.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Production of Fischer-Tropsch Synfuels at Nuclear Plants

A case study analysis was performed to evaluate nuclear-powered synthetic fuel production in the midwestern United States (U.S.). A Fischer-Tropsch (FT) fuel synthesis plant design was used as the basis for the analysis. The FT plant design was configured to produce a product slate consisting of diesel fuel, jet fuel, and motor gasoline blend stocks from carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and hydrogen (H 2 ) feedstocks. The CO 2 feedstock for the FT plant was assumed to be sourced from biorefineries in the region around a Midwest light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plant (NPP). The analysis specifies that power from the LWR is used to produce H 2 via high-temperature steam electrolysis and to operate the FT synfuel production plant. Capital costs were estimated for the FT plant while capital costs for the electrolysis plant were based on previous Idaho National Laboratory (INL) studies. In addition to labor and maintenance costs for the FT and electrolysis plants, operating costs also include the costs for CO 2 feedstock transport. An analysis was performed to determine the cost of transporting CO 2 from the distributed biorefinery sources to the centralized fuel synthesis plant as a function of the synfuel plant capacity and corresponding CO 2 demand. The primary revenue streams are associated with sales of the synthetic fuel products. The synthetic fuel products will likely follow the same market trends as the conventional fuel products. The synfuel price data was thus based on projections made by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) 2021 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) for conventional fuel products minus federal and state taxes, as well as marketing and distribution costs. The economic analysis also considered cases that included and excluded revenues from the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) clean hydrogen production tax credit (PTC) of $\$ $3.00/kg for the first ten years of operation. The economic analysis calculated the net present value (NPV) for cases involving steady-state synfuel production for comparison with the NPV for a business-as-usual case in which NPP continues to sell only electric power to the grid. A synfuel production “Reference Case” was considered in addition to sensitivity cases in which the plant capacity, electricity price, and synthetic fuel product prices were perturbed. The synfuel production Reference Case considered a scenario in which the electrolysis and synfuel plants utilized a combined electrical load of 1000 megawatt electrical (MWe) from the LWR with the balance of the LWR power output being sold to the electric grid. The economic analysis suggests that the synfuel production Reference Case evaluated in this analysis would lead to considerable economic potential for near-term deployment of a nuclear-based synfuel production plant. Specifically, the economic analysis suggests that the deployment of a 1000 megawatt (MW) nuclear-powered synfuel plant could result in a NPV increase of approximately $\$ $1.7 billion for a case with no clean synfuel price premium relative to conventional petroleum fuels when accounting for the additional revenues from the 2022 IRA clean hydrogen PTCs of $\$ $3/kg. Sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the effect of perturbation of selected model input parameters on the NPV for the synfuel production Reference Case. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the plant capacity has the largest impact on the differential NPV, with a smaller synfuel production capacity resulting in a decrease in revenue when a larger fraction of the power from the NPP is sold to the grid and a smaller fraction of the power is used to produce synthetic fuel products. The synfuel product pricing has the next largest impact on the differential NPV, with lower synfuel prices resulting in decreased NPV from decreased synfuel sales revenue while higher synfuel prices result in increased NPV from increased synfuel sales revenue. Electricity pricing has a smaller effect on the NPV than the fuel sales price since, in the Reference Case, most of the energy from the NPP is used for synfuel production and a smaller amount of the system revenues are associated with electrical power sales. However, the electricity price sensitivity does indicate that the Synfuel Integrated Energy System (IES) would have a greater NPV than the business-as-usual case (e.g., grid power sales only) when electricity market prices are low, suggesting that synfuel production could provide a strategy for decreasing the economic risks to NPPs posed by a loss of revenues attributed to falling electricity market prices.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗

How Does Home Energy Score Affect Home Value and Mortgage Performance?

Energy-efficient homes save their occupants money through lower energy bills. These savings might be capitalized into higher home sale prices. They also improve the household’s net cash flow, which might make households better able to pay mortgage debt. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Home Energy Score (HES) assigns a 1-10 score to homes and estimates annual energy bills based on modeled energy consumption. In this paper we investigated the relationship between HES metrics and two housing market outcomes: home sale price and mortgage performance. We found that the relationship was only statistically significant in places with a mandatory HES assessment at the time of sale. Using a sample of 26,291 home sales that occurred after HES assessments, we found that a one-point increase in HES in these locations was associated with a 0.5% increase in sale price, and an increase in $100 of estimated annual energy bills was associated with a 0.4% decrease. This magnitude of effect is consistent with estimated magnitudes of home sale premiums for other green or energy-efficient home certifications in the literature. We also found that a one-point increase in HES was associated with a 5.5% reduction in the odds of a loan going 30 days delinquent if the loan originated after the assessment occurred. Similarly, we found that a $100 decrease in estimated annual energy bills was associated with a 2.3% decrease in the odds of a loan going delinquent if it originated after the assessment occurred. Our results suggest that HES provides a valuable signal for housing market transactions in specific situations.

Pigman, Margaret↗

Electrification pathways for U.S. passenger vehicles

As electric vehicle (EV) adoption continues to accelerate, we explore the implications of different adoption trajectories that achieve a full transition to EVs by 2050 for U.S. light-duty passenger vehicles (LDVs). Using a vetted transportation system model, we find that achieving 100% EV sales by 2040 would decrease tailpipe greenhouse gases (GHGs) by 90% between 2022 and 2050, leaving about 45 million gasoline vehicles on the road. Achieving 100% sales by 2035, tailpipe emissions decrease 93%, with about 28 million gasoline vehicles on the road in 2050 (9% of stock). Slower EV adoption, reaching 100% sales by 2045, would result in 69 million gasoline vehicles on the road in 2050. Fully electrifying passenger vehicles by 2050 would require a full transition to EVs sales in the 2030s coupled with either changes to mobility, or an accelerated stock turnover in the 2040s with additional 19–30% annual LDV sales.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

The Distribution of U.S. Electric Utility Revenue Decoupling Rate Impacts from 2005 to 2017

Investments in energy efficiency and distributed generation reduce electric utility retail sales. Since electric utilities have historically collected a large portion of revenues from volumetric energy rates (¢/kWh), such reductions in sales can impact the utility’s ability to sufficiently recover non-production costs. Regulatory mechanisms that “decouple” utility revenues from sales were implemented to help make the utility indifferent to energy efficiency and distributed generation by ensuring the utility is able to collect an allowed level of revenue each year regardless of its sales. However, noticeable and consistent surcharges over time may create the perception of an incorrectly designed or implemented decoupling mechanism. To date, there are limited quantitative analyses of the rate adjustments due to decoupling mechanisms implemented among U.S. electric utilities (see Morgan, 2013). Given the recent rapid increase in distributed energy resource (DER) adoption in some states and utility service territories, consumers may be facing more prevalent and ongoing decoupling surcharges. This, in turn, may undermine stakeholder support for implementation of decoupling mechanisms and the associated utility support for energy efficiency and DERs. To determine the size of retail rate adjustments associated with decoupling mechanisms and whether they have a tendency towards bill surcharges or credits, we analyzed a large dataset of historical annual decoupling rate adjustments for 21 electric utilities in 11 states between 2005 and 2017. We found that decoupling mechanisms adjusted rates, both up and down, between rate cases, and the majority of those adjustments (54 percent) are small (within a range of -1 to 1 percent). However, we also found that 64 percent of the rate adjustment observations in our sample showed a positive rate adjustment. Importantly, once a surcharge is applied there is an 86 percent chance that there will be a surcharge in the next year as well. While our analysis did not seek to understand the root causes for such results, some possible factors include the accuracy of revenue requirement forecasts, emerging structural changes in customer use and production of energy, misaligned financial motivation, and other factors that influence sales (e.g., economic recession).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

There's No Place Like Home: Residential Parking, Electrical Access, and Implications for the Future of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure

In March 2021, the cumulative sale of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), including plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) and battery electric vehicles (BEV), reached 1.8 million in the United States (Argonne National Laboratory 2021). However, PEV adoption is still in its infancy; its market share has just reached around 3% of new light-duty vehicle (LDV) sales by the end of 2020 (Alliance for Automotive Innovation 2021). Current trends suggest that PEV market share in the United States is increasing. The U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) 2020 Annual Energy Outlook forecasts PEV registrations to exceed 8 million vehicles by 2030 (AEO 2020). PEV adoption is expected to be led by states that are regulating the sale of zero emission vehicles (ZEVs) (California Air Resources Board). California continues to push for more aggressive ZEV regulations; the state recently issued an executive order aimed at 100% of LDV sales being ZEVs by 2035 (Office of Governor Newsom). At the federal level, the Biden administration has shown great ambition in encouraging broader electric vehicle (EV) adoption, including setting the goal of installing 500,000 new chargers nationwide (The White House 2021). Access to charging infrastructure is consistently cited as one of the primary barriers to the increased sale of PHEVs and BEVs (Carley et al. 2019). In the United States, PEV charging options are often described using a pyramid structure, with residential charging as the foundation, workplace charging in the middle, and public charging on top (Figure 1). The existing electricity system, which generates, transmits, and distributes electric fuel to residential households, has helped PEVs partially overcome the "chicken and egg" conundrum that has haunted other alternative fuels. Viable home access to electric charging is also an important equity issue, because non-residential PEV charging options (e.g., workplace or public charging stations) are generally more expensive. Households without residential charging access may experience higher total cost of PEV ownership if non-residential charging options are more costly.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Status and Trends in the U.S. Voluntary Power Market: 2023 Data

Voluntary green power, for this report, refers to renewable energy procurement by retail electricity customers above what is otherwise provided by load-serving entities. This report is part of an annual series of reports synthesizing trends in the U.S. voluntary green power market. In 2023, about 9.7 million retail electricity customers procured about 319 million megawatt-hours (MWh) of voluntary green power (Figure ES-1), representing a 17% increase over sales in 2022. Estimated voluntary green power market sales represented about 44% of non-hydropower renewable energy sales and about 8% of all U.S. retail electricity sales in 2023. Most of the remainder of U.S. renewable energy sales reflects renewable energy procured by load-serving entities to comply with state renewable energy mandates, also known as compliance-based procurement. The U.S. voluntary green power market is undergoing a clear shift toward long-term contracts, driven primarily by increasingly ambitious corporate renewable energy procurement targets.

2023↗

Commercial Product Activation Using RFID

Radio-frequency identification (RFID) would be used for commercial product activation, according to a proposal. What is new here is the concept of combining RFID with activation - more specifically, using RFID for activating commercial products (principally, electronic ones) and for performing such ancillary functions as tracking individual product units on production lines, tracking shipments, and updating inventories. According to the proposal, an RFID chip would be embedded in each product. The information encoded in the chip would include a unique number for identifying the product. An RFID reader at the point of sale would record the number of the product and would write digital information to the RFID chip for either immediate activation of the product or for later interrogation and processing. To be practical, an RFID product-activation system should satisfy a number of key requirements: the system should be designed to be integrable into the inventory-tracking and the data-processing and -communication infrastructures of businesses along the entire supply chain from manufacture to retail; the system should be resistant to sophisticated hacking; activation codes should be made sufficiently complexity to minimize the probability of activating stolen products; RFID activation equipment at points of sale must be capable to two-way RF communication for the purposes of reading information from, and writing information to, embedded RFID chips; the equipment at points of sale should be easily operable by sales clerks with little or no training; the point-of-sale equipment should verify activation and provide visible and/or audible signals indicating verification or lack thereof; and, the system should be able to handle millions of products per year with minimal human intervention, among other requirements.

Jedrey, Thomas↗

Status and Trends in the U.S. Voluntary Green Power Market (2021 Data)

Voluntary green power, for the purposes of this report, refers to renewable energy procurement by retail electricity customers above state renewable energy mandates. In this report, we present data and key trends for voluntary green power markets, except for a small portion of voluntary purchasing where no data are available. In 2021, about 8 million retail electricity customers procured about 244 million megawatt-hours (MWh) of voluntary green power (Figure ES-1), representing about 27% of all U.S. renewable energy sales, about 39% of non-hydro renewable energy sales, and about 6% of all U.S. retail electricity sales. Most of the remainder of U.S. renewable energy sales reflects renewable energy procured by load-serving entities to comply with state renewable energy mandates, also known as compliance-based procurement.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Mitigation of emissions and energy consumption due to light-duty vehicle size increases

Analysts need to consider the shift of light-duty vehicle sales from cars to light trucks to accurately project fuel consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, and consumer spending. Here, we find that energy consumed by on-road light-duty vehicles in the United States can vary by 10% by changing assumptions regarding the sales mix. Scenarios aligned with third-party forecasts, assuming a greater sales proportion of light trucks and fewer cars, yield petroleum consumption 3–8% higher than forecasts from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), with greenhouse gas emissions 5–7% higher and a 4–9% increase in consumer spending on vehicles and fuel. This incremental energy consumption can be offset by additional technologies for these vehicles. If most sedans were phased out in favor of larger sport utility vehicles, we find a sales share of 30% battery electric vehicles or 39% hybrid electric vehicles would equal the emissions of the EIA Reference Case.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Extension of Solvent-Assisted Linker Exchange to Supported Metal–Organic Framework Thin Films

Solvent-assisted linker exchange (SALE) is a common postsynthetic approach used to accommodate metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) for targeted applications. As this technique is relatively untested in immobilized MOF structures, we repeated the generalized SALE approach with ZIF-8 deposited directly onto solid substrates and assessed the results with a variety of techniques, including time-of-flight secondary-ion mass spectrometry (ToF-SIMS). Our methods confirm that the supported films maintain their key structural properties while allowing for linker substitution with foreign species. Alongside experiments, we used computational modeling to quantify the relative energetics of SALE reactions with a variety of linkers. These techniques together reveal that SALE is translatable to immobilized MOFs. Additionally, we recognize how various aspects of the postsynthetic approach can bear consequences for the material’s final micro- and macroscopic properties. Furthermore, the results uncover basic yet critical details needed to inform future efforts to engineer MOF films with functional properties.

Ligands↗

Disaggregating Future Retail Electricity Rate Growth [Slides]

Recent Berkeley Lab research found that modest retail rate increases over the past 10 years were mostly driven by large increases in capital expenditures (CapEx) that were offset in part by substantial wholesale price reductions. Decision-makers are increasingly concerned about the potential future rate impacts of a number of policies and industry trends that support rapid decarbonization, electrification, and grid modernization. Using historical FERC Form 1 data and the existing literature on policies and industry trends that are likely to affect utility-incurred costs and retail sales, Berkeley Lab researchers developed ranges of forecasted growth rates for cost-related rate drivers (i.e., fuel and purchased power; transmission, distribution, generation, and other categories of both non-fuel operations & maintenance and CapEx) and non-cost related rate drivers (i.e., retail sales, peak demand, and customers). These were then used as inputs to a pro-forma utility financial model (FINDER) that estimated the growth in retail electric rates between 2020 and 2030 for a prototypical vertically-integrated investor-owned utility in the United States. The analysis produced the following results: 1. Assuming average growth rates in all rate drivers, future retail rate growth is driven by sizable increases in all CapEx costs, where fuel and purchased power costs are replaced by generation CapEx as the largest rate component between 2020 and 2030. 2. Growth in sales/peak demand/customers, generation CapEx costs, and fuel and purchased power (FPP) costs, in isolation, produce the most uncertainty in rate growth. Specifically, a 1% increase in the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of retail sales, coincident peak demand (CP), and customers (Sales-CP-Cust) results in a 0.88-0.93% decrease in the CAGR of rates, in isolation. However, a 1% increase in the CAGR of generation CapEx budgets results in a 0.07-0.14% increase in the CAGR of rates, while a 1% increase in the CAGR of FPP costs causes a 0.10-0.14% increase in the CAGR of rates, all else being equal. 3. Taking into account the correlation and variability of the growth in all rate drivers jointly, generation CapEx is expected to be both the largest and most uncertain rate component by 2030 (20-25% share of the retail rate). Transmission and distribution CapEx, along with fuel and purchased power costs are each expected to comprise between 12% and 17% of retail rates.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Status and Trends in the U.S. Voluntary Power Market: 2024 Data

Voluntary renewable power, for this report, refers to renewable energy procurement by retail electricity customers above what is otherwise provided by load-serving entities. This report is part of an annual series of reports synthesizing trends in the U.S. voluntary renewable power market. In 2024, about 9.2 million retail electricity customers procured about 315 million megawatt-hours (MWh) of voluntary renewable power (Figure ES-1). Estimated voluntary renewable power market sales represented about 45% of renewable energy sales excluding large hydropower and about 8% of all U.S. retail electricity sales in 2024. Most of the remainder of U.S. renewable energy sales reflects renewable energy procured by load-serving entities to comply with state renewable energy mandates.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The use of ion mobility spectrometry and gas chromatography/mass spectrometry for the detection of illicit drugs on clandestine records

Illicit drug distribution has over the past decade grown tremendously from simple 'drug pushing' where drugs were distributed from poorly organized individuals to today's well organized and well financed drug cartels. This change to a more 'corporate-like' atmosphere has resulted in a greater use of record keeping to monitor the profits generated. The use of record keeping by drug distributors is not restricted to high level drug smugglers but is used at all levels within the distribution network. Dealers at all levels including street dealers are generally 'fronted', given on consignment quantities of drugs that they in turn sell to customers, thereby requiring the need for records to keep track of drug sales versus liabilities. These records because of their illicit nature are often encrypted to hide the fact that they are indeed records of drug transactions. The creation of a handwritten notation concerning a drug transaction is normally brought on because of a purchase or sale. In a sale, this is commonly accomplished through a consignment, or the designation of a quantity to a customer to whom that amount has been 'fronted'. Because this activity generates a debt, it follows that an accounting for payments made, as well as new transactions completed, is only logical. One of the most common means of representing these is through an 'accounting flow', in which payments are subtracted from a running balance while new sales are added to it. The examination of illicit drug records has been the key to the prosecution of numerous federal, state, and local drug cases for a number of years. The Document Section of the FBI Laboratory, through its Racketeering Records Analysis Unit (RRAU), has been involved in such analytical efforts since 1983. Detailed analytical research brought about an evolution in the systematic approach utilized in the RRAU since that time. The close proximity of the drugs to the records often results in trace drug evidence being transferred to the records. The detection of trace drug residue on surfaces by ion mobility spectrometry (IMS) is well documented in literature. The following procedure will deal primarily with the newer techniques of trace drug analysis and drug record analysis developed by the Chemistry/Toxicology Unit of the FBI Laboratory since the more traditional techniques of latent finger print analysis and document analysis are well known.

Donnelly, Brian↗

Hourly Electricity Demand Profiles for Each County in the Contiguous United States

This dataset provides estimated hourly electricity demand for each county in the contiguous United States from 2016-2023. The demand profiles represent the sum of two components: (1) Weighted averages of reported hourly demand profiles for North American Electric Reliability Corporation balancing authority (BA) regions and subregions, scaled to match annual estimates of county-level retail sales and direct use of electricity and weighted by the estimated percentage of county load served by each BA region or subregion. (2) Weighted averages of modeled hourly, county- and sector-level distributed photovoltaic (DPV) capacity factor profiles, scaled to match annual estimates of on-site consumption of DPV-generated electricity for each county and weighted by the percentage of consumption attributable to each sector Annual county-level retail sales are estimated by aggregating utility-reported sales to the state level and allocating the results to counties according to each county's share of state population. Annual county-level direct use is calculated by aggregating power plant-reported direct use values. Annual county-level on-site consumption of DPV-generated electricity is estimated by aggregating utility-reported net metering data to determine the amount of DPV-generated electricity sold back to the grid for each state, subtracting those values from modeled state-level DPV generation estimates, and allocating the results to counties according to each county's share of statewide modeled DPV generation. The open-source Python code used to develop this dataset is available at "Historical Load Data Repository" link below.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Multiscale Effects Masked the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Electricity Demand in the United States

Shelter-in-place orders and business closures related to COVID-19 changed the hourly profile of electricity demand and created an unprecedented source of uncertainty for the grid. The potential for continued shifts in electricity profiles has implications for electricity sector investment and operating decisions that maintain reserve margins and provide grid reliability. This study reveals that understanding this uncertainty requires an understanding of the underlying drivers at the customer-class scale. This paper utilizes three datasets to compare the impacts of COVID-19 on electricity consumption across a range of spatiotemporal and customer scales. At the utility/customer-class scale, COVID-19-induced shutdowns in the spring of 2020 shifted weekday residential load profiles to resemble weekend profiles from previous years. Total commercial loads declined, but the commercial diurnal load profile was unchanged. With only total loads available at the balancing authority scale, the apparent impact of COVID-19 was smaller during the summer due in part to phased re-opening and spatial variability in re-opening, but there were still clear variations once total loads were broken down zonally. Monthly data at the state scale showed an increase in state-level residential electricity sales, a decrease in commercial sales, and a small net decrease in total sales in most states from April-August 2020. Analyses that focus on total load or a single scale may miss important changes that become apparent when the load is broken down regionally or by customer class.

COVID-19, electricity demand, multiscale, Commonwe↗