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Results for “statistical selection”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1991

Learning process mapping heuristics under stochastic sampling overheads

A statistical method was developed previously for improving process mapping heuristics. The method systematically explores the space of possible heuristics under a specified time constraint. Its goal is to get the best possible heuristics while trading between the solution quality of the process mapping heuristics and their execution time. The statistical selection method is extended to take into consideration the variations in the amount of time used to evaluate heuristics on a problem instance. The improvement in performance is presented using the more realistic assumption along with some methods that alleviate the additional complexity.

Ieumwananonthachai, Arthur↗
NASA NTRS1992

Trend analysis for large solid rocket motors - A program level approach

This paper defines a program-level trend analysis effort that can be applied to large solid rocket motors. The effort is especially applicable to large segmented rocket motors such as the Space Transportation System's solid rocket boosters. Five types of trend analysis are discussed for different aspects of a rocket motor program, (performance, reliability, problem, supportability, and programmatic). Ideas are offered for implementing and performing a program-level trend analysis effort by giving suggestions for selecting computer capabilities, choosing parameters, selecting statistical processes, routine screening for trends, analyzing significant trends (for example, looking for related trends and determining if adverse trends are resolved), and reporting results of trend analysis. The use of program-level trending allows for the ability to easily transfer data between organizations and easily use the data to correlate trends from the various organizations to find causal relationships. Efficiency is enhanced from upper level management to the shop floor at vendor locations by using the same trend analysis software and methodology at all organizations.

Babbitt, Norman E., III↗
NASA NTRS2009

Identifying Optimal Temporal Scale for the Correlation of AOD and Ground Measurements of PM2.5 to Improve the Model Performance in a Real-time Air Quality Estimation System

Aerosol optical depth (AOD), an indirect estimate of particle matter using satellite observations, has shown great promise in improving estimates of PM 2.5 air quality surface. Currently, few studies have been conducted to explore the optimal way to apply AOD data to improve the model accuracy of PM 2.5 surface estimation in a real-time air quality system. We believe that two major aspects may be worthy of consideration in that area: 1) the approach to integrate satellite measurements with ground measurements in the pollution estimation, and 2) identification of an optimal temporal scale to calculate the correlation of AOD and ground measurements. This paper is focused on the second aspect on the identifying the optimal temporal scale to correlate AOD with PM2.5. Five following different temporal scales were chosen to evaluate their impact on the model performance: 1) within the last 3 days, 2) within the last 10 days, 3) within the last 30 days, 4) within the last 90 days, and 5) the time period with the highest correlation in a year. The model performance is evaluated for its accuracy, bias, and errors based on the following selected statistics: the Mean Bias, the Normalized Mean Bias, the Root Mean Square Error, Normalized Mean Error, and the Index of Agreement. This research shows that the model with the temporal scale of within the last 30 days displays the best model performance in this study area using 2004 and 2005 data sets.

Li, Hui↗
DOE OSTI2019

Structure retrieval from four-dimensional scanning transmission electron microscopy: Statistical analysis of potential pitfalls in high-dimensional data

Four-dimensional (4D) scanning transmission electron microscopy is one of the most rapidly growing modes of electron microscopy imaging. The advent of fast pixelated cameras and the associated data infrastructure have greatly accelerated this process. Yet conversion of the 4D datasets into physically meaningful structure images in real space remains an open issue. In this work, we demonstrate that it is possible to systematically create filters that will affect the apparent resolution or even qualitative features of the real-space structure image, reconstructing artificially generated patterns. As initial efforts, we explore statistical model selection algorithms, aiming for robustness and reliability of estimated filters. This statistical model selection analysis demonstrates the need for regularization and cross validation of inversion methods to robustly recover structure from high-dimensional diffraction datasets.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2018

A Modeling Framework for Evaluating the Drought Resilience of a Surface Water Supply System under Non-stationarity

The future resilience of water supply systems is unprecedentedly challenged by non-stationary processes, such as fast population growth and a changing climate. A thorough understanding of how these non-stationarities impact water supply resilience is vital to support sustainable decision making, particularly for large cities in arid and/or semi-arid regions. In this study, a novel modeling framework, which integrates hydrological processes and water management, was established over a representative water limited metropolitan area to evaluate the impacts of water availability and water demand on reservoir storage and water supply reliability. In this framework, climate change induced drought events were selected from statistically downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 outputs under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario, while future water demand was estimated by the product of projected future population and per capita water use. Compared with the first half of the 21st century (2000–2049), reservoir storage and water supply reliability during the second half century (2050–2099) are projected to reduce by 16.1% and 14.2%, respectively. While both future multi-year droughts and population growth will lower water supply resilience, the uncertainty associated with future climate projection is larger than that associated with urbanization. To reduce the drought risks, a combination of mitigation strategies (e.g., additional conservation, integrating new water sources, and water use redistribution) was found to be the most efficient approach and can significantly improve water supply reliability by as much as 15.9%.

Zhao, Gang (ORCID:0000000327370530)↗
NASA NTRS1977

'Chain pooling' model selection as developed for the statistical analysis of a rotor burst protection experiment

A statistical decision procedure called chain pooling had been developed for model selection in fitting the results of a two-level fixed-effects full or fractional factorial experiment not having replication. The basic strategy included the use of one nominal level of significance for a preliminary test and a second nominal level of significance for the final test. The subject has been reexamined from the point of view of using as many as three successive statistical model deletion procedures in fitting the results of a single experiment. The investigation consisted of random number studies intended to simulate the results of a proposed aircraft turbine-engine rotor-burst-protection experiment. As a conservative approach, population model coefficients were chosen to represent a saturated 2 to the 4th power experiment with a distribution of parameter values unfavorable to the decision procedures. Three model selection strategies were developed.

Holms, A. G.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Analyzing Responses of Chemical Sensor Arrays

NASA is developing a third-generation electronic nose (ENose) capable of continuous monitoring of the International Space Station s cabin atmosphere for specific, harmful airborne contaminants. Previous generations of the ENose have been described in prior NASA Tech Briefs issues. Sensor selection is critical in both (prefabrication) sensor material selection and (post-fabrication) data analysis of the ENose, which detects several analytes that are difficult to detect, or that are at very low concentration ranges. Existing sensor selection approaches usually include limited statistical measures, where selectivity is more important but reliability and sensitivity are not of concern. When reliability and sensitivity can be major limiting factors in detecting target compounds reliably, the existing approach is not able to provide meaningful selection that will actually improve data analysis results. The approach and software reported here consider more statistical measures (factors) than existing approaches for a similar purpose. The result is a more balanced and robust sensor selection from a less than ideal sensor array. The software offers quick, flexible, optimal sensor selection and weighting for a variety of purposes without a time-consuming, iterative search by performing sensor calibrations to a known linear or nonlinear model, evaluating the individual sensor s statistics, scoring the individual sensor s overall performance, finding the best sensor array size to maximize class separation, finding optimal weights for the remaining sensor array, estimating limits of detection for the target compounds, evaluating fingerprint distance between group pairs, and finding the best event-detecting sensors.

Zhou, Hanying↗
NASA NTRS1976

A model for the simulation of atmospheric turbulence

A method that produces realistic simulations of atmospheric turbulence is developed and analyzed. The procedure makes use of a generalized spectral analysis, often called a proper orthogonal decomposition or the Karhunen-Loeve expansion. A set of criteria, emphasizing a realistic appearance, a correct spectral shape, and non-Gaussian statistics, is selected in order to evaluate the model turbulence. An actual turbulence record is analyzed in detail, providing both a standard for comparison and input statistics for the generalized spectral analysis. The simulation utilizes the eigenfunction-expansion procedure to produce preliminary time histories of the three velocity components simultaneously. It is found that important cross-statistical features are reasonably well-behaved.

Petersen, E. L.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Chain Pooling modeling selection as developed for the statistical analysis of a rotor burst protection experiment

As many as three iterated statistical model deletion procedures were considered for an experiment. Population model coefficients were chosen to simulate a saturated 2 to the 4th power experiment having an unfavorable distribution of parameter values. Using random number studies, three model selection strategies were developed, namely, (1) a strategy to be used in anticipation of large coefficients of variation, approximately 65 percent, (2) a strategy to be sued in anticipation of small coefficients of variation, 4 percent or less, and (3) a security regret strategy to be used in the absence of such prior knowledge.

Holms, A. G.↗
NASA NTRS2013

System and method for progressive band selection for hyperspectral images

Disclosed herein are systems, methods, and non-transitory computer-readable storage media for progressive band selection for hyperspectral images. A system having module configured to control a processor to practice the method calculates a virtual dimensionality of a hyperspectral image having multiple bands to determine a quantity Q of how many bands are needed for a threshold level of information, ranks each band based on a statistical measure, selects Q bands from the multiple bands to generate a subset of bands based on the virtual dimensionality, and generates a reduced image based on the subset of bands. This approach can create reduced datasets of full hyperspectral images tailored for individual applications. The system uses a metric specific to a target application to rank the image bands, and then selects the most useful bands. The number of bands selected can be specified manually or calculated from the hyperspectral image's virtual dimensionality.

Fisher, Kevin↗
DOE OSTI2020

A2Cloud‐RF : A random forest based statistical framework to guide resource selection for high‐performance scientific computing on the cloud

Summary This article proposes a random‐forest based A2Cloud framework to match scientific applications with Cloud providers and their instances for high performance. The framework leverages four engines for this task: PERF engine, Cloud trace engine, A2Cloud‐ext engine, and the random forest classifier (RFC) engine. The PERF engine profiles the application to obtain performance characteristics, including the number of single‐precision (SP) floating‐point operations (FLOPs), double‐precision (DP) FLOPs, x87 operations, memory accesses, and disk accesses. The Cloud trace engine obtains the corresponding performance characteristics of the selected Cloud instances including: SP floating point operations per second (FLOPS), DP FLOPS, x87 operations per second, memory bandwidth, and disk bandwidth. The A2Cloud‐ext engine uses the application and Cloud instance characteristics to generate objective scores that represent the application‐to‐Cloud match. The RFC engine uses these objective scores to generate two types of random forests to assist users with rapid analysis: application‐specific random forests (ARF) and application‐class based random forests. The ARF consider only the input application's characteristics to generate a random forest and provide numerical ratings to the selected Cloud instances. To generate the application‐class based random forests, the RFC engine downloads the application profiles and scores of previously tested applications that perform similar to the input application. Using these data, the RFC engine creates a random forest for instance recommendation. We exhaustively test this framework using eight real‐world applications across 12 instances from different Cloud providers. Our tests show significant statistical agreement between the instance ratings given by the framework and the ratings obtained via actual Cloud executions.

Samuel, David↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Bayesian approach to evaluation of soil biogeochemical models

Abstract. To make predictions about the carbon cycling consequences of rising global surface temperatures, Earth system scientists rely on mathematical soil biogeochemical models (SBMs). However, it is not clear which models have better predictive accuracy, and a rigorous quantitative approach for comparing and validating the predictions has yet to be established. In this study, we present a Bayesian approach to SBM comparison that can be incorporated into a statistical model selection framework. We compared the fits of linear and nonlinear SBMs to soil respiration data compiled in a recent meta-analysis of soil warming field experiments. Fit quality was quantified using Bayesian goodness-of-fit metrics, including the widely applicable information criterion (WAIC) and leave-one-out cross validation (LOO). We found that the linear model generally outperformed the nonlinear model at fitting the meta-analysis data set. Both WAIC and LOO computed higher overfitting risk and effective numbers of parameters for the nonlinear model compared to the linear model, conditional on the data set. Goodness of fit for both models generally improved when they were initialized with lower and more realistic steady-state soil organic carbon densities. Still, testing whether linear models offer definitively superior predictive performance over nonlinear models on a global scale will require comparisons with additional site-specific data sets of suitable size and dimensionality. Such comparisons can build upon the approach defined in this study to make more rigorous statistical determinations about model accuracy while leveraging emerging data sets, such as those from long-term ecological research experiments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Universality Classes of Interaction Structures for NK Fitness Landscapes

Kauffman’s NK-model is a paradigmatic example of a class of stochastic models of genotypic fitness landscapes that aim to capture generic features of epistatic interactions in multilocus systems. Genotypes are represented as sequences of L binary loci. The fitness assigned to a genotype is a sum of contributions, each of which is a random function defined on a subset of k≤L loci. These subsets or neighborhoods determine the genetic interactions of the model. Whereas earlier work on the NK model suggested that most of its properties are robust with regard to the choice of neighborhoods, recent work has revealed an important and sometimes counter-intuitive influence of the interaction structure on the properties of NK fitness landscapes. Here we review these developments and present new results concerning the number of local fitness maxima and the statistics of selectively accessible (that is, fitness-monotonic) mutational pathways. In particular, we develop a unified framework for computing the exponential growth rate of the expected number of local fitness maxima as a function of L, and identify two different universality classes of interaction structures that display different asymptotics of this quantity for large k. Moreover, we show that the probability that the fitness landscape can be traversed along an accessible path decreases exponentially in L for a large class of interaction structures that we characterize as locally bounded. Finally, we discuss the impact of the NK interaction structures on the dynamics of evolution using adaptive walk models.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Star formation characteristics of CNN-identified post-mergers in the Ultraviolet Near Infrared Optical Northern Survey (UNIONS)

ABSTRACT The importance of the post-merger epoch in galaxy evolution has been well documented, but post-mergers are notoriously difficult to identify. While the features induced by mergers can sometimes be distinctive, they are frequently missed by visual inspection. In addition, visual classification efforts are highly inefficient because of the inherent rarity of post-mergers (~1 per cent in the low-redshift Universe), and non-parametric statistical merger selection methods do not account for the diversity of post-mergers or the environments in which they appear. To address these issues, we deploy a convolutional neural network (CNN) that has been trained and evaluated on realistic mock observations of simulated galaxies from the IllustrisTNG simulations, to galaxy images from the Canada France Imaging Survey, which is part of the Ultraviolet Near Infrared Optical Northern Survey. We present the characteristics of the galaxies with the highest CNN-predicted post-merger certainties, as well as a visually confirmed subset of 699 post-mergers. We find that post-mergers with high CNN merger probabilities [p(x) > 0.8] have an average star formation rate that is 0.1 dex higher than a mass- and redshift-matched control sample. The SFR enhancement is even greater in the visually confirmed post-merger sample, a factor of 2 higher than the control sample.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Probing cosmic velocities with the pairwise kinematic Sunyaev-Zel’dovich signal in DESI Bright Galaxy Sample DR1 and ACT DR6

We present a measurement of the pairwise kinematic Sunyaev-Zel’dovich (kSZ) signal using the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Bright Galaxy Sample (BGS) Data Release 1 (DR1) galaxy sample overlapping with the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) CMB temperature map. Our analysis makes use of 1.6 million galaxies with stellar masses log⁡ 𝑀 ⋆ /𝑀 ⊙ >10, and we explore measurements across a range of aperture sizes (2.1′ <𝜃 ap <3.5′) and stellar mass selections. This statistic directly probes the velocity field of the large-scale structure, a unique observable of cosmic dynamics and modified gravity. In particular, at low redshifts, this quantity is especially interesting, as deviations from General Relativity are expected to be largest. Notably, our result represents the highest-significance low-redshift (𝑧 ∼ 0.3) detection of the kSZ pairwise effect yet. In our most optimal configuration (𝜃 ap =3.3′, log⁡ 𝑀 ⋆ >11), we achieve a 5⁢𝜎 detection. Assuming that an estimate of the optical depth and galaxy bias of the sample exists via e.g., external observables, this measurement constrains the fundamental cosmological combination 𝐻 0 ⁡𝑓⁡𝜎$^2_8$. A key challenge is the degeneracy with the galaxy optical depth. We address this by combining CMB lensing, which allows us to infer the halo mass and galaxy population properties, with hydrodynamical simulation estimates of the mean optical depth, $\bar{𝜏}$ . We stress that this is a proof-of-concept analysis; with BGS DR2 data we expect to improve the statistical precision by roughly a factor of two, paving the way toward robust tests of modified gravity with kSZ-informed velocity-field measurements at low redshift.

Hadzhiyska, Boryana [Institute of Astronomy; Kavli↗