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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2004

A Case Study of the Impact of AIRS Temperature Retrievals on Numerical Weather Prediction

Large errors in numerical weather prediction are often associated with explosive cyclogenesis. Most studes focus on the under-forecasting error, i.e. cases of rapidly developing cyclones which are poorly predicted in numerical models. However, the over-forecasting error (i.e., to predict an explosively developing cyclone which does not occur in reality) is a very common error that severely impacts the forecasting skill of all models and may also present economic costs if associated with operational forecasting. Unnecessary precautions taken by marine activities can result in severe economic loss. Moreover, frequent occurrence of over-forecasting can undermine the reliance on operational weather forecasting. Therefore, it is important to understand and reduce the prdctions of extreme weather associated with explosive cyclones which do not actually develop. In this study we choose a very prominent case of over-forecasting error in the northwestern Pacific. A 960 hPa cyclone develops in less than 24 hour in the 5-day forecast, with a deepening rate of about 30 hPa in one day. The cyclone is not versed in the analyses and is thus a case of severe over-forecasting. By assimilating AIRS data, the error is largely eliminated. By following the propagation of the anomaly that generates the spurious cyclone, it is found that a small mid-tropospheric geopotential height negative anomaly over the northern part of the Indian subcontinent in the initial conditions, propagates westward, is amplified by orography, and generates a very intense jet streak in the subtropical jet stream, with consequent explosive cyclogenesis over the Pacific. The AIRS assimilation eliminates this anomaly that may have been caused by erroneous upper-air data, and represents the jet stream more correctly. The energy associated with the jet is distributed over a much broader area and as a consequence a multiple, but much more moderate cyclogenesis is observed.

Reale, O.↗
NASA NTRS1975

A multisensor analysis of Nimbus-5 data recorded on 22 January 1973

The Nimbus 5 meteorological satellite has a full complement of radiation sensors. Data from these sensors were analyzed and intercompared for orbits 569 and 570. The electrically-scanning microwave radiometer (19.35-GHz region) delineated rain areas over the ocean off the U.S. east coast, in good agreement with radar imagery, and permitted the estimation of rainfall rates in this region. Residual ground water, from abnormal rainfall in the lower Mississippi Valley, was indicated under clear sky conditions by soil brightness temperature values in the Nimbus 5 electrically scanning microwave radiometer and U.S. Air Force Data Acquisition and Processing Program infrared data. The temperature-humidity infrared radiometer (6.7 micron and 11 micron) showed the height and spatial configuration of frontal clouds along the east coast and outlined the confluence of a polar jet stream with a broad subtropical jet stream along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Temperature profiles from three vertical temperature sounders are found to be in good agreement with related radiosonde ascents along orbit 569 from the subtropics to the Arctic Circle.

Allison, L. J.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Jet stream velocity errors in general circulation models

The longitude and time dependence of excessive wind speed errors above subtropical jets in current GCM forecasts is studied for 14 five-day winter forecasts using the NASA Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres fourth-order GCM. Several distinct phenomena, which may be divided into four categories, are found to contribute to the excess winds. These categories are: (1) error growth above the jet near the Himalayas; (2) error growth above the jet initiated elsewhere followed by advection; (3) tropical moisture bursts appearing in equatorial regions and migrating northeastward to merge with and distort the jet; and (4) undulatory growth of waves in the meridional component of the jet stream velocity. The results of additional sensitivity studies of the Himalayan region error are also reported.

Tenenbaum, J.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Principal modes of intraseasonal variations in atmospheric angular momentum and tropical convection

Five-day National Meteorological Center wind and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data are used here to study the seasonal, intraseasonal variation of angular momentum and its relationship with tropical convection. It is found that the zonally averaged u component and the zonally averaged OLR show pronounced periodicities around 30-60 days. The globally averaged zonal wind at 250 mbar exhibits strong seasonal variation in connection with the expansion and contraction of the easterly and westerly belt. At upper levels this is manifested as the poleward and equatorward migration of the subtropical jet streams. Results show that the 30- to 60-day oscillation in 250 mbar zonal mean wind and OLR can be represented by three basic meridional structures: tropical modes, tropical-subtropical modes, and extratropical modes.

Lau, K.-M.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Dynamics of atmospheric teleconnections during the northern summer

The mechanisms of northern summertime teleconnections are investigated using a barotropic model. In a series of numerical experiments the atmospheric response over the eastern Pacific-North America to an idealized local divergence source corresponding to the northward displacement of the ITCZ in the eastern Pacific is studied. It is found that the response is much stronger in June than in May and is strongest when the forcing is located north of about 10 deg N. This can be explained in terms of the refractive properties of the climatological summertime subtropical jet stream over North America. In another series of experiments the global response as a function of the longitudinal location of the tropical forcing is examined. A wave train emanating from the subtropics of the western Pacific near the Philippines, arching across the Aleutians and the Gulf of Alaska, and terminating with a high anomaly over the continental United States appears over a wide longitudinal range of local forcing, suggesting the existence of a normal mode for the northern summertime climatological flow. The normal-mode concept is supported by further experiments using extratropical forcings as well as free-mode integrations.

Lau, K.-M.↗
NASA NTRS1981

NASA satellite helps airliners avoid ozone concentrations

Results from a test to determine the effectiveness of satellite data for helping airlines avoid heavy concentrations of ozone are reported. Information from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer, aboard the Nimbus-7 was transmitted, for use in meteorological forecast activities. The results show: (1) Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer profile of total ozone in the atmosphere accurately represents upper air patterns and can be used to locate meteorological activity; (2) route forecasting of highly concentrated ozone is feasible; (3) five research aircraft flights were flown in jet stream regions located by the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer to determine winds, temperatures, and air composition. It is shown that the jet stream is coincides with the area of highest total ozone gradient, and low total ozone amounts are found where tropospheric air has been carried along above the tropopause on the anticyclonic side of the subtropical jet stream.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1987

Synergistic interactions between an upper-level jet streak and diabatic processes that influence the development of a low-level jet and a secondary coastal cyclone

A series of numerical simulations of the February 1979 Presidents Day cyclone is presented. The development of the low-level jet (LLJ) associated with the cyclone is described, and the mesoscale numerical model, initial analyses, and experimental design used in the study are discussed. Four numerical simulations are discussed and compared, including an adiabatic simulation that isolates the development of upper-level divergence along the axis of a subtropical jet streak and three other simulations that reveal the contributions of sensible and latent heat release in modifying lower-tropospheric wind fields and reducing the sea-level pressure. The formation of the LLJ is described through an evaluation of trajectories derived from the various model simulations. The effect of the LLJ on secondary cyclogenesis along the East Coast is described.

Uccellini, Louis W.↗
NASA NTRS1992

A GCM case study on the maintenance of short-term subtropical wind maxima in the summer hemisphere during SOP-1, FGGE

In order to substantiate earlier findings of pronounced short-term deviations in Southern Hemisphere tropical convection during the first Special Observing Period (SOP-1) of FGGE, the hypothesis that the observed summertime subtropical wind maxima were strengthened by episodes of enhanced tropical divergence is numerically tested using a fourth-order GCM. FGGE observational data for January 6-20, 1979 suggested that strong convection over the South Pacific helped to maintain a nearby subtropical jet. The dominant term in the zonal momentum budget was the Coriolis force applied to the diabatically driven meridional circulation. The present GCM study simulates these processes to a reasonable degree of accuracy. Experimental reduction of the latent energy supplied to the GCM is used to substantiate that summertime subtropical westerly maxima are largely forced by divergent outflow from the tropics.

Hurrell, James W.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Arctic Impact Identification with Less Data Using Variable Relationships: An Exploratory Express LDRD project.

Regional impacts from sea ice loss can be challenging to separate from internal climate variability, potentially requiring thousands of ensemble members. East Asian wintertime cooling has been linked to sea ice loss from present day conditions in the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project with these large ensemble counts. This cooling is theorized to arise from a strengthened Siberian High and East Asian Jet response. The strengthened Siberian High can be detected with one fifth the ensemble members needed for the East Asian wintertime cooling in a single model. We thus hypothesize that leveraging relationships between multiple variables in a conditional pathways-based approach would reduce the number of required ensemble members to conclusively attribute East Asian wintertime cooling to future sea ice concentrations. In all analyzed cases, confidence was increased when evaluating sea ice loss’s responsibility for the joint effects of East Asian cooling, East Asian Jet strengthening, and Siberian High strengthening over just East Asian cooling. However, we were not able to confidently attribute future East Asian wintertime cooling to sea ice loss in a single model. We found that significant intra-ensemble variability within single Earth System Models (ESMs) produced highly uncertain forcing response models upon which attribution results were undermined. We were able to show that ensemble mean seasonally averaged metrics from multiple ESMs greatly improved the accuracy of the forcing response linear models and exposed the necessity of all three steps in the pathway (sea ice area, Siberian High pressure, and East Asian Jet speed) for accurate prediction of East Asian wintertime cooling. Although all three steps were necessary, East Asian wintertime cooling possesses a large dependence on the Siberian High pressure, which weakens the confidence associated with overall strong joint-attribution comparing present day and future scenarios. We believe transitioning the pathway nodes to relative changes between the Siberian High and Aleutian Low as well as between the midlatitude westerlies and subtropical jet in the East Asianj Jet region may be able to produce significant attribution more fully dependent upon all three steps. Ultimately, this research demonstrates the simple extensibility of conditional pathways-based attribution to sea ice loss forcing on the Earth system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1982

The thermohaline driving mechanism of oceanic jet streams

In a series of publications dealing with the circulation of the North Atlantic, Worthington (1959, 1972, 1976, 1977) has challenged the widely accepted notion that the Gulf Stream system is entirely wind-driven. He was able to demonstrate that the Gulf Stream over its most intense portion south of New England generally intensifies in winter. Worthington postulates that strong surface cooling in winter is the cause of Gulf Stream intensification, i.e., he believes that a thermal mechanism is partially responsible for driving the Gulf Stream. Worthington speaks of 'anticyclogenesis' and of a 'fresh charge of energy' which the Gulf Stream receives at the end of each (severe) winter. A pattern of thermoline circulation arising in the upper layers of the Stream could play a role similar to that of the Hadley circulation in the atmosphere, which derives the subtropical jet stream. The present investigation is concerned with the examination of such a possibility, taking into account the employment of a two-layer model.

Csanady, G. T.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Teleconnections of the Quasi–Biennial Oscillation in a multi–model ensemble of QBO–resolving models

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) dominates the interannual variability of the tropical stratosphere and influences other regions of the atmosphere. The high predictability of the QBO implies that its teleconnections could lead to in-creased skill of seasonal and decadal forecasts provided the relevant mechanisms are accurately represented in models. Here modelling and sampling uncertainties of QBO teleconnections are examined using a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving atmospheric general circulation models that have carried out a set of coordinated experiments as part of the Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) QBO initiative (QBOi). During Northern Hemisphere winter the stratospheric polar vortex in most of these models strengthens when the QBO near 50 hPa is westerly and weakens when it is easterly, consistent with, but weaker than, the observed response. These weak responses are likely due to model errors, such as systematically weak QBO amplitudes near 50 hPa, affecting the teleconnection. The teleconnection to the North Atlantic Oscillation is less well captured overall, but of similar strength to the observed signal in the few models that do show it. Furthermore, the models do not show clear evidence of a QBO teleconnection to the Northern Hemisphere Pacific sector subtropical jet.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Characteristics and Variability of Winter Northern Pacific Atmospheric River Flavors

Abstract Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are intensive poleward moisture transport events that are essential to the global hydrological cycle and are often linked to extreme weather events. We categorize the winter North Pacific ARs into two “flavors”: wind‐dominated (windy ARs) and moisture‐dominated (wet ARs) using 40 years of hourly data from fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis. We compare the differences between windy ARs and wet ARs including the lifecycle characteristics (such as genesis locations and changes of meteorological elements through the lifecycle), overall AR frequency, landfall impacts, and variability. The windy ARs are more likely to occur in the midlatitudes, while wet ARs are more active in the subtropics. Windy ARs are associated with intensive surface pressure lows, where the strong pressure gradient can support the strong wind within ARs. Due to larger size and longer lifetime, wet ARs are more likely to produce more precipitation over a lifecycle. By scaling the landfalling ARs, we show that wet ARs dominate the high‐category ARs (Category 4 and 5) with higher spatial frequency and more precipitation, and windy ARs have higher contributions in the lower AR categories especially over British Columbia. Windy ARs are modulated by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections via the anomalous geopotential height and extended subtropical jet. Wet ARs are affected by the anomalous sea surface temperature over the midlatitudes related to ENSO. Sensitivity analysis with an alternate AR detection algorithm shows consistent results on AR flavors but with disagreement on the amplitude.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Atmospheric river representation in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 1.0

Abstract. The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) project is an ongoing, state-of-the-science Earth system modeling, simulation, and prediction project developed by the US Department of Energy (DOE). With an emphasis on supporting the DOE's energy mission, understanding and quantifying how well the model simulates water cycle processes is of particular importance. Here, we evaluate E3SM version 1.0 (v1.0) for its ability to represent atmospheric rivers (ARs), which play significant roles in water vapor transport and precipitation. The characteristics and precipitation associated with global ARs in E3SM at standard resolution (1∘ × 1∘) are compared to the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA2). Global patterns of AR frequencies in E3SM show high degrees of correlation (≥0.97) with MERRA2 and low mean absolute errors (MAEs; <1 %) annually, seasonally, and across different ensemble members. However, some large-scale condition biases exist, leading to AR biases – most significant of which are the double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), a stronger and/or equatorward-shifted subtropical jet during boreal and austral winters, and enhanced Northern Hemisphere westerlies during summer. By comparing atmosphere-only and fully coupled simulations, we attribute the sources of the biases to the atmospheric component or to a coupling response. Using relationships revealed in Dong et al. (2021), we provide evidence showing the stronger North Pacific jet in winter and the enhanced Northern Hemisphere westerlies during summer, associated with E3SM's double ITCZ and related weaker Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), respectively, which are significant sources of the AR biases found in the coupled simulations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Process-oriented evaluation of quasi-stationary Rossby waves and their impact on surface air temperature extremes in dynamical downscaling over North America

Quasi-stationary Rossby waves are a crucial component of the general circulation and play a significant role in regional water and energy cycles, as well as in extreme events. However, process-oriented evaluation for Rossby waves is rarely performed for dynamical downscaling simulations. To close this gap, we evaluate three classes of dynamical downscaling approaches, with a focus on quasi-stationary Rossby waves and their impact on surface air temperature over North America during Northern Hemisphere summer. The three classes of models differ in the way large-scale forcing is provided: a limited-area model (LAM) constrained only by lateral boundary conditions, represented by RegCM4 from the North American branch of the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX), a LAM with spectral nudging to maintain consistency in large-scale dynamics with the forcing data, represented by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulation in NA-CORDEX, and a global variable-resolution model with smoothly varying grid spacings, represented by the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.4, with the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) as its dynamical core (CAM-MPAS). With no constraints on the atmospheric dynamics, CAM-MPAS exhibits several mean biases in the upper-level circulations over the Pacific Coast region: a weaker subtropical jet, a northward-shifted mid-latitude jet, and an overestimated southerly flow. With the lateral boundary constraint alone, RegCM4 also exhibits weaker jets and overestimated southerly winds off the West Coast. Rossby ray theory reveals that those wind biases direct incoming Rossby waves northward. The erroneously routed Rossby waves distort the relationship between the accumulation of wave activity over the US West Coast and surface temperature anomalies over the Southern Great Plains, which emerges approximately 4 d after the convergence of wave-activity flux in the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Furthermore, the response of heatwaves to the extreme wave activity flux is not reproduced by the two models, a serious drawback as a dynamical downscaling framework is expected to connect large-scale forcing to local-scale phenomena. The WRF model employing spectral nudging is largely free from the aforementioned problems. A pair of sensitivity simulations suggests that spectral nudging is the key to improving the dynamics of quasi-stationary Rossby waves and their impact on surface air temperature. Our results also demonstrate the effectiveness of Rossby wave diagnostics that allow for realistic background flows for assessing the credibility of dynamical downscaling over North America, where incoming Rossby waves propagate through complex circulation patterns before traveling across the continent.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1981

The role of zonally asymmetric heating in the vertical and temporal structure of the global scale flow fields during FGGE SOP-1

By examining the vertical structure of the low order spherical harmonics of the divergence and vorticity fields, the relative contribution of tropical and monsoonal circulations upon the global wind fields was estimated. This indicates that the overall flow over North America and the Pacific between January and February is quite distinct both in the lower and upper troposphere. In these longitudes there is a stronger tropical overturning and subtropical jet stream in January than February. The divergent flow reversed between 850 and 200 mb. Poleward rotational flow at upper levels is associated with an equatorward rotational flow at low levels. This suggests that the monsoon and other tropical circulations project more amplitude upon low order (global scale) representations of the flow than do the typical midlatitude circulations and that their structures show conspicuous changes on a time scale of a week or less.

Paegle, J.↗
NASA NTRS1981

A simple model of the Lagrangian-mean flow produced by dissipating planetary waves

A simple equation for the Lagrangian-mean flow induced by damped planetary waves is derived. The flow computed for stationary planetary waves of a beta-plane is found to be generally poleward and downward during winter and appears to be about twice as strong as the diabatic circulation in the lower stratosphere. An important factor in determining the high-latitude Lagrangian-mean flow field is the subtropical jet stream which blocks planetary wave propagation toward the equatorial regions. Computations using two types of Lagrangian-mean boundary conditions at the surface show that incorrect orographic forcing distorts the Lagrangian-mean flow up to three scale heights or more above ground.

Schoeberl, M. R.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Integrated and spectral energetics studies of the GLAS general circulation model

Integrated and spectral energetics of the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS) general circulation model are compared with observations and examined when subdivided beyond hemispheric integrals. In the monthly mean zonal averages, qualitative improvements are found over previous versions of the model in eddy kinetic energy and barotropic conversions although vertical shear above the subtropical jet remains weak. This paper traces this problem to the erroneous growth of kinetic energy above strong jets, shows that this difficulty is common to all orographic general circulation models, and suggests that this problem has significant effects on upper-level long-wave predictability. In particular, it is considered whether hemispherically integrated kinetic energy or low-wavenumber spectral coefficients retain any skill as the predictability limit. In the time-dependent comparisons, the model shows significant skill in predicting the hemispherically integrated eddy kinetic energy out to two weeks for one of two cases.

Tenenbaum, J.↗