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At least 37 records · Page 2

Lightning initiation on aircraft in thunderstorms

A physical model of the initiation of lightning flashes in thunderstorms is presented. The model is based on the bi-directional charged leader concept of Kasemir, and is verified with airborne data from lightning strikes to instrumented airplanes (NASA F-106B and FAA CV-580). The characteristics of electromagnetic processes during lightning attachment are identified by comparison with those studied in natural flashes, those triggered by wire trailing rockets, and laboratory discharges. A triggered flash starts with either a negative corona or a positive leader that depends on the ambient electric field vector and the airplane form factor. The positive leader with continuous current that increases with time is followed in a few milliseconds by the negative stepped leader with current pulses of a few kA. The two leaders develop in space simultaneously and bi-directionally from the oppositely charged extremities of the airplane.

Mazur, Vladislav↗

Effects of the pressure perturbation field in numerical models of unidirectionally sheared thunderstorm convection - Two versus three dimensions

The physical roles of 'buoyant' and 'dynamic' pressure components, and the distinction between buoyant and hydrostatic pressure perturbations, are aspects of the pressure perturbation field in strongly sheared convective storms studied by means of two- and three-dimensional anelastic numerical modeling experiments with common environmental profiles. The pressure analysis clarifies the differences between two- and three-dimensional storms. In the main updraft, strong midlevel thermal buoyancy is partly opposed by a downward-perturbed vertical pressure gradient force. This, however, occurs to a much greater extent in two dimensions than in three, contributing to smaller net upward accelerations. While the buoyant and hydrostatic fields are intimately related to the total buoyancy distribution, the buoyant pressure perturbation is smoother and of lower amplitude than its hydrostatic counterpart. For the model experiments, this distinction is far greater in three dimensions than in two, in association with the smaller scale of the active convection in three dimensions.

Schlesinger, R. E.↗

Application of spatial Poisson process models to air mass thunderstorm rainfall

Eight years of summer storm rainfall observations from 93 stations in and around the 154 sq km Walnut Gulch catchment of the Agricultural Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, in Arizona are processed to yield the total station depths of 428 storms. Statistical analysis of these random fields yields the first two moments, the spatial correlation and variance functions, and the spatial distribution of total rainfall for each storm. The absolute and relative worth of three Poisson models are evaluated by comparing their prediction of the spatial distribution of storm rainfall with observations from the second half of the sample. The effect of interstorm parameter variation is examined.

Eagleson, P. S.↗

A quasi-static model of global atmospheric electricity. II - Electrical coupling between the upper and lower atmosphere

The paper presents a model of global atmospheric electricity used to examine the effect of upper atmospheric generators on the global electrical circuit. The model represents thunderstorms as dipole current generators randomly distributed in areas of known thunderstorm frequency; the electrical conductivity in the model increases with altitude, and electrical effects are coupled with a passive magnetosphere along geomagnetic field lines. The large horizontal-scale potential differences at ionospheric heights map downward into the lower atmosphere where the perturbations in the ground electric field are superimposed on the diurnal variation. Finally, changes in the upper atmospheric conductivity due to solar flares, polar cap absorptions, and Forbush decreases are shown to alter the downward mapping of the high-latitude potential pattern and the global distribution of fields and currents.

Roble, R. G.↗

Lightning initiation on aircraft in thunderstorms

The physical model of the initiation of lightning flashes by aircraft in thunderstorms is presented. The model is based on the 'bi-directional uncharged leader' concept by Kasemir, and is verified with airborne data from lightning strikes to an instrumented airplane (NASA F-106B and FAA CV-580). The characteristics of electromagnetic processes during lightning attachment are identified by comparison with those studied in natural flashes, those triggered by wire trailing rockets, and laboratory discharges. A triggered flash starts with either a negative corona or a positive leader that depends on the ambient electric field vector and the airplane form factor. The positive leader with continuous current that increases with time is followed in a few milliseconds by the negative stepped leader with current pulses of a few kA. The two leaders develop in space simultaneously and bi-directionally from the oppositely charged extremities of the airplane.

Mazur, Vladislav↗

Lightning initiation on aircraft in thunderstorms

A physical model of the initiation of lightning flashes by aircraft in thunderstorms is presented. The model is based on the 'bidirectional uncharged leader' concept of Kasemir, and is verified with airborne data from lightning strikes to instrumented airplanes (NASA F-106B and FAA CV-580). A triggered flash starts with either a negative corona or a positive leader that depends on the ambient electric field vector and the airplane form factor. The positive leader with continuous current that increases with time is followed in several milliseconds by the negative stepped leader with current pulses of several kA. The two leaders develop in space simultaneously and bidirectionally from the oppositely charged extremities of the airplane.

Mazur, Vladislav↗

A Benchmark to Test Generalization Capabilities of Deep Learning Methods to Classify Severe Convective Storms in a Changing Climate

Abstract This is a test case study assessing the ability of deep learning methods to generalize to a future climate (end of 21st century) when trained to classify thunderstorms in model output representative of the present‐day climate. A convolutional neural network (CNN) was trained to classify strongly rotating thunderstorms from a current climate created using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at high‐resolution, then evaluated against thunderstorms from a future climate and found to perform with skill and comparatively in both climates. Despite training with labels derived from a threshold value of a severe thunderstorm diagnostic (updraft helicity), which was not used as an input attribute, the CNN learned physical characteristics of organized convection and environments that are not captured by the diagnostic heuristic. Physical features were not prescribed but rather learned from the data, such as the importance of dry air at mid‐levels for intense thunderstorm development when low‐level moisture is present (i.e., convective available potential energy). Explanation techniques also revealed that thunderstorms classified as strongly rotating are associated with learned rotation signatures. Results show that the creation of synthetic data with ground truth is a viable alternative to human‐labeled data and that a CNN is able to generalize a target using learned features that would be difficult to encode due to spatial complexity. Most importantly, results from this study show that deep learning is capable of generalizing to future climate extremes and can exhibit out‐of‐sample robustness with hyperparameter tuning in certain applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A quasi-static model of global atmospheric electricity. I - The lower atmosphere

A quasi-steady model of global lower atmospheric electricity is presented. The model considers thunderstorms as dipole electric generators that can be randomly distributed in various regions and that are the only source of atmospheric electricity and includes the effects of orography and electrical coupling along geomagnetic field lines in the ionosphere and magnetosphere. The model is used to calculate the global distribution of electric potential and current for model conductivities and assumed spatial distributions of thunderstorms. Results indicate that large positive electric potentials are generated over thunderstorms and penetrate to ionospheric heights and into the conjugate hemisphere along magnetic field lines. The perturbation of the calculated electric potential and current distributions during solar flares and subsequent Forbush decreases is discussed, and future measurements of atmospheric electrical parameters and modifications of the model which would improve the agreement between calculations and measurements are suggested.

Hays, P. B.↗

Overshooting thunderstorm cloud top dynamics as approximated by a linear Lagrangian parcel model with analytic exact solutions

Results are presented from a linear Lagrangian entraining parcel model of an overshooting thunderstorm cloud top. The model, which is similar to that of Adler and Mack (1986), gives analytic exact solutions for vertical velocity and temperature by representing mixing with Rayleigh damping instead of nonlinearly. Model results are presented for various combinations of stratospheric lapse rate, drag intensity, and mixing strength. The results are compared to those of Adler and Mack.

Schlesinger, Robert E.↗

Finite element simulation of thunderstorm electrodynamics in the proximity of the storm

Observations of electric fields, Maxwell current density, and air conductivity over thunderstorms were presented. The measurements were obtained using electric field mils and conductivity probes installed on a U2 aircraft as the aircraft passed approximately directly over an active thunderstorm at an altitude of 18 to 20 km. Accurate electrical observations of this type are rare and provide important information to those involved in numerically modeling a thunderstorm. A preliminary set of computer simulations based on this data were conducted and are described. The simulations show good agreement with measurements and are used to infer the thundercloud's charging current and amount of charge exchanged per flash.

Baginski, Michael Edward↗

Use of the negative binomial-truncated Poisson distribution in thunderstorm prediction

A probability model is presented for the distribution of thunderstorms over a small area given that thunderstorm events (1 or more thunderstorms) are occurring over a larger area. The model incorporates the negative binomial and truncated Poisson distributions. Probability tables for Cape Kennedy for spring, summer, and fall months and seasons are presented. The computer program used to compute these probabilities is appended.

Cohen, A. C.↗

Thunderstorm Activity Under Intermediate and Extreme Climate Change Scenarios

Assessing how increasing greenhouse gas concentrations may modify regional climates is an ongoing challenge. Relatively little work has examined how climate change may influence processes related to regional thunderstorm activity. This is important to consider in areas where thunderstorms are important for maintaining regional hydroclimates. Here, this study focuses on three convection-allowing climate simulations—namely, a retrospective simulation (1990–2005) and two possible climate change scenarios (2085–2100)—with domains encompassing the conterminous United States. Regional and seasonal variability is noted in the response of thunderstorm activity as measured by thresholds in simulated radar reflectivity factor in the two climate change scenarios. A decrease in thunderstorm activity is projected for the Southern Plains, whereas the Southeast and Midwest experience an increase in thunderstorm activity. An examination of environmental parameters related to thunderstorm activity reveals an overall increase in convective instability but spatially varying changes in convective inhibition.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Earth's Most Powerful Natural Particle Accelerator

Thunderstorms launch antimatter, gamma rays, and highly energetic electrons and neutrons to the edge of space. This witches' brew of radiation is generated at the edge of the stratopause, by the strong electric fields associated with lightning discharges. In less than a quarter millisecond, an explosive feedback process takes an initial seed population of electrons, perhaps produced by cosmic rays from dying stars, and amplifies them a billion billion-fold in the rarefied air over high altitude thunderheads. The electrons generate gamma radiation as they travel through the stratosphere and lower mesosphere, momentarily brighter and of harder spectrum than cosmic gamma ray bursts. These electrons ultimately are absorbed by the atmosphere, but the gamma rays continue on, into the upper reaches of the atmosphere, where they in turn generate a new population of electrons, positrons, and energetic neutrons. These secondary electrons and positrons move along the magnetic field, and can reach near-earth space, streaming through the inner radiation belts, and possibly contributing to the trapped populations there. First postulated by Wilson in 1925, and serendipitously discovered by the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory in 1994 [Fishman et al.], these events, known as "Terrestrial Gamma ray Flashes" (TGFs), represent the most intense episodes of particle acceleration on or near the Earth, resulting in electrons with energies up to 100 MeV. Recent observations by the RHESSI [Smith et al., 2004], Fermi [Briggs et al., 2010], and AGILE [Tavani et al., 2011] satellites, and theoretical and computational modeling, have suggested that the relativistic runaway electron avalanche (RREA) mechanism [Gurevich, 1992], and important modifications, such as the relativistic feedback discharge (RFD) model [Dwyer 2012] can best explain the observations at present. In these models, strong thunderstorm electric fields drive seed electrons, generated from cosmic ray interactions, into a runaway discharge, in which the seed electrons continually gain energy from the electric field, creating a host of secondaries as they interact with the background atmospheric gas. The feedback mechanisms include backwards-propagating positrons and gamma rays, which then can generate new "seed" electrons at the base of the acceleration region, and themselves generate further avalanche chain reactions, greatly amplifying the initial seed population. All these processes happen in the stratosphere, in the altitude range near 15-20 km, where the electric fields and mean free paths are appropriate to allow the discharge to develop.

Rowland, Doug↗

The Importance of an Ensemble Approach for Modeling Aerosol‐Convection Interactions

Aerosol-convection interactions modulate cloud microphysics, thermodynamics, and updraft intensity, contributing to climate-scale aerosol-radiative forcing. However, quantifying aerosol indirect effects in mixed-phase deep convection remains challenging due to uncertainties in parameterized physics and initial conditions driving nonlinear evolution of convective processes. This study investigates the convective updraft sensitivity to random initial temperature perturbations using an idealized ensemble modeling framework informed by in situ thermodynamic and aerosol observations from the DOE TRACER field campaign. We analyze the impact of small-scale initial perturbations on updraft velocity and supersaturation, and determine the ensemble size required to minimize stochastic internal variability. Results show that minor thermodynamic perturbations can produce updraft variability comparable to aerosol-induced changes reported in prior work. An ensemble of 10 members sufficiently reduces variability, enabling robust investigation of aerosol-related updraft invigoration and informing the design of future ensemble-based aerosol-convection interaction studies in environments with significant spatiotemporal mesoscale thermodynamic and aerosol heterogeneity.

aerosol-convection interactions↗

Millimeter wavelength propagation studies

Diversity data obtained using the ATS-5 satellite and available BTL data were compared with optimum diversity gain predictions. This comparison indicates that terminal spacings exceeding 8 km result in values of diversity gain within 1.5 dB of the optimum. The thunderstorm cell modeling technique for predicting attenuation and diversity gain statistics was extended to include ellipsoidal cell models. A three rain gage method for the measurement of cell size, ellipticity, and orientation was developed.

Hodge, D. B.↗

Analysis of severe atmospheric disturbances from airline flight records

Advanced methods were developed to determine time varying winds and turbulence from digital flight data recorders carried aboard modern airliners. Analysis of several cases involving severe clear air turbulence encounters at cruise altitudes has shown that the aircraft encountered vortex arrays generated by destabilized wind shear layers above mountains or thunderstorms. A model was developed to identify the strength, size, and spacing of vortex arrays. This model is used to study the effects of severe wind hazards on operational safety for different types of aircraft. The study demonstrates that small remotely piloted vehicles and executive aircraft exhibit more violent behavior than do large airliners during encounters with high-altitude vortices. Analysis of digital flight data from the accident at Dallas/Ft. Worth in 1985 indicates that the aircraft encountered a microburst with rapidly changing winds embedded in a strong outflow near the ground. A multiple-vortex-ring model was developed to represent the microburst wind pattern. This model can be used in flight simulators to better understand the control problems in severe microburst encounters.

Wingrove, R. C.↗

The evolution and discharge of electric fields within a thunderstorm

An analysis of the present three-dimensional thunderstorm electrical model and its finite-difference approximations indicates unconditional stability for the discretization that results from the approximation of the spatial derivatives by a box-schemelike method and of the temporal derivative by either a backward-difference or Crank-Nicholson scheme. Lightning propagation is treated through numerical techniques based on the inverse-matrix modification formula and Cholesky updates. The model is applied to a storm observed at the Kennedy Space Center in 1978, and numerical comparisons are conducted between the model and the theoretical results obtained by Wilson (1920) and Holzer and Saxon (1952).

Hager, William W.↗