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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainties in an Observation-Based Estimate of the Global Aerosol Direct Radiative Effect

Aerosols impact Earth’s radiation budget directly through interactions with radiation and indirectly via interactions with clouds. Aerosols have significant radiative impacts on Earth’s energy budget and represent the largest uncertainty in the radiative forcing of the current climate. Although the magnitude of the aerosol direct radiative effect (DRE) is estimated to be less than that of the indirect effect, uncertainties are large. While model-based estimates of aerosol radiative forcing are subject to uncertainties in modeled aerosol properties and uncertainties in simulated cloud cover and albedo, most observation-based studies of global aerosol DRE have their own difficulties with aerosol optical properties and have been limited to cloud-free skies in most cases. Estimates of the uncertainty of the aerosol DRE are themselves uncertain and have varied widely among different published studies. In this study we use the CERES-CALIPSO-CloudSat-MODIS (C3M) product to estimate the global clear-sky and all-sky aerosol DRE. C3M merges collocated data from CERES, CALIPSO, CloudSat, and MODIS with information from reanalysis and an aerosol transport model. With CALIOP observations of aerosol below optically thin clouds and above clouds, co-located with cloud albedo from MODIS, the C3M dataset allows a detailed exploration of observational uncertainties. By perturbing the aerosol properties used and comparing radiative effects in perturbed cases with the base case we characterize uncertainties in estimated aerosol DRE due to uncertainties in the aerosol properties involved. The results also provide a basis for determining measurement requirements to improve the accuracy of DRE estimates. We will describe the approach and present results.

Dave Winker↗

NASA NTRS2003

Structured Uncertainty Bound Determination From Data for Control and Performance Validation

This report attempts to document the broad scope of issues that must be satisfactorily resolved before one can expect to methodically obtain, with a reasonable confidence, a near-optimal robust closed loop performance in physical applications. These include elements of signal processing, noise identification, system identification, model validation, and uncertainty modeling. Based on a recently developed methodology involving a parameterization of all model validating uncertainty sets for a given linear fractional transformation (LFT) structure and noise allowance, a new software, Uncertainty Bound Identification (UBID) toolbox, which conveniently executes model validation tests and determine uncertainty bounds from data, has been designed and is currently available. This toolbox also serves to benchmark the current state-of-the-art in uncertainty bound determination and in turn facilitate benchmarking of robust control technology. To help clarify the methodology and use of the new software, two tutorial examples are provided. The first involves the uncertainty characterization of a flexible structure dynamics, and the second example involves a closed loop performance validation of a ducted fan based on an uncertainty bound from data. These examples, along with other simulation and experimental results, also help describe the many factors and assumptions that determine the degree of success in applying robust control theory to practical problems.

Lim, Kyong B.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty Quantification Methodology for Sonic Boom Loudness of a Low-Boom Supersonic Concept

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of uncertainty quantification for sonic boom loudness metrics associated with the X-59 aircraft during its acoustic validation phase. The study focuses on employing advanced methodologies to characterize uncertainties in key sonic boom parameters predicted from a database derived from a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solver. These methodologies include creating a polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) surrogate model, which is then used to run a Monte Carlo analysis to obtain 95% uncertainty intervals for sonic boom loudness parameters across the full carpet. Atmospheric uncertainties are rigorously considered, leveraging weather models based on historical data near Edwards Air Force Base to simulate potential flight conditions. The findings include preliminary uncertainty results for the full carpet during the validation phase of the Quesst mission. Additionally, a sensitivity study reveals that the primary sources of uncertainty are humidity and cruise weight.

Laura M. White↗

NASA NTRS2016

Uncertainty Reduction using Bayesian Inference and Sensitivity Analysis: A Sequential Approach to the NASA Langley Uncertainty Quantification Challenge

This paper presents a computational framework for uncertainty characterization and propagation, and sensitivity analysis under the presence of aleatory and epistemic un- certainty, and develops a rigorous methodology for efficient refinement of epistemic un- certainty by identifying important epistemic variables that significantly affect the overall performance of an engineering system. The proposed methodology is illustrated using the NASA Langley Uncertainty Quantification Challenge (NASA-LUQC) problem that deals with uncertainty analysis of a generic transport model (GTM). First, Bayesian inference is used to infer subsystem-level epistemic quantities using the subsystem-level model and corresponding data. Second, tools of variance-based global sensitivity analysis are used to identify four important epistemic variables (this limitation specified in the NASA-LUQC is reflective of practical engineering situations where not all epistemic variables can be refined due to time/budget constraints) that significantly affect system-level performance. The most significant contribution of this paper is the development of the sequential refine- ment methodology, where epistemic variables for refinement are not identified all-at-once. Instead, only one variable is first identified, and then, Bayesian inference and global sensi- tivity calculations are repeated to identify the next important variable. This procedure is continued until all 4 variables are identified and the refinement in the system-level perfor- mance is computed. The advantages of the proposed sequential refinement methodology over the all-at-once uncertainty refinement approach are explained, and then applied to the NASA Langley Uncertainty Quantification Challenge problem.

Uncertainty↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SWIPE: Spectral Water Inversion Processor and Emulator

Degradation of Earth’s inland water resources due to anthropogenic perturbations and climate anomalies at both local and global scales continues to place human health at substantial risk. There is now a growing necessity to develop pragmatic approaches that allow timely and effective extrapolation of local processes, to spatially resolved global products, and to promote operational and sustainable resource policy management. This presentation will be discussing the progress made developing SWIPE: Spectral Water Inversion Processor and Emulator. SWIPE is a platform for advanced modeling of coastal and inland aquatic habitats. The goal is create a comprehensive and cohesive system to leverage recent advancements in computation and machine learning to develop a synthetic training ground for sensitivity studies and algorithm development. The four principal facets of SWIPE include: 1. Advanced two-layer coated sphere bio-optical modeling and GPU radiative transfer modeling, 2. Big Data involving massive synthetic spectral libraries of optical properties of various global aquatic particles, surface reflectance, and top-of-atmosphere reflectance, all at hyperspectral resolution leveraging high-end computing systems at NASA Ames Research Center, 3. Deep Learning for algorithm development for water quality inversion of concentrations of common biogeophysical variables as well as optics, full uncertainty characterization by water type, and forward emulation, and lastly, 4. Image Processing for application of developed retrieval algorithms for both hyperspectral and multispectral sensors with experimental corrections for global adjacency, noise, sunglint, and benthic reflectance. This presentation will demonstrate the Equivalent Algal Populations (EAP) two-layer coated sphere scattering model which has been used develop spectral libraries of hyperspectral inherent optical properties of roughly 80 species of phytoplankton, covering 15 different classes and nine taxonomic functional types. The EAP model was also used to derive spectral properties of 10 different non-algal particle functional types. Examples of how the SMART-G (Speed-up Monte-carlo Advanced Radiative Transfer using GPU) radiative transfer code is used to model optically complex aquatic signals will be presented and discussed in the context of creating a massive synthetic database which can leverage the full power of next generation machine learning techniques and high end computing for water quality inversion. We will discuss our active investigation in things like appropriate model architectures, dimensionality reduction techniques such as PCA and autoencoders, uncertainty quantification and abstaining, and which variables actually benefit most from hyperspectral information versus multispectral resolution. We are also curious about questions relating to cost/benefit analysis in terms of computation resources, neural network complexity, and data volumes. Answers to these questions will hopefully elaborate on cost efficiency for potential future sensor design considerations.

SWIPE↗

NASA NTRS1982

Potential benefits from a successful solar thermal program

Solar energy systems were investigated which complement nuclear and coal technologies as a means of reducing the U.S. dependence on imported petroleum. Solar Thermal Energy Systems (STES) represents an important category of solar energy technologies. STES can be utilized in a broad range of applications servicing a variety of economic sectors, and they can be deployed in both near-term and long-term markets. The net present value of the energy cost savings attributable to electric utility and IPH applications of STES were estimated for a variety of future energy cost scenarios and levels of R&D success. This analysis indicated that the expected net benefits of developing an STES option are significantly greater than the expected costs of completing the required R&D. In addition, transportable fuels and chemical feedstocks represent a substantial future potential market for STES. Due to the basic nature of this R&D activity, however, it is currently impossible to estimate the value of STES in these markets. Despite this fact, private investment in STES R&D is not anticipated due to the high level of uncertainty characterizing the expected payoffs.

Terasawa, K. L.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Solar thermal technologies - Potential benefits to U.S. utilities and industry

Terasawa, K. L.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Optimized Jupiter, Saturn, and Uranus interior models

A method for inverting gravitational data is the basis for the present models of Saturn, Jupiter, and Uranus, which have been computed to the third-order in rotational disturbance to the total potential and yield exact matches for recent, highly-accurate determinations of gravitational harmonics for these planets. These results indicate that a major He depletion has either not occurred in the outer layers of Jupiter or of Saturn, or that such a depletion's effect on the density profile has been masked by the presence of denser components. Considerable uncertainty characterizes Uranian models; the one presently preferred has substantial heavy-element enhancement at depth and little ice-rock separation.

Hubbard, W. B.↗

NASA NTRS1993

X-ray evidence for particulate contamination on the AXAF VETA-1 mirrors

X-ray testing of the AXAF outer mirror pairs, in the VETA-1 configuration, reveals a point spread function (PSF) with unexpectedly large wings at low energies. Although the angular dependence in the wings of the PSF is close to that expected for diffractive scattering from surface roughness, the energy dependence differs substantially. Analyses of the observed X-ray PSF, images near ring focus, and single-quadrant images at conjugate focus suggest that the excess scattering observed at low X-ray energies results from diffractive scattering by relatively small grains (as small as a few tenths micrometer in radius). We develop a simple model for the contribution of scattering by particulates to the PSF. Merging this model with that for scattering by surface roughness, we fit the combined model to the observed energy-dependent PSF, in order to estimate parameters and associated uncertainties characterizing the grain-size distribution and the surface-roughness power spectral density. In particular, we find that the fractional coverage of the mirrors by particulates is approximately 1 x 10 exp -4 (for grain radii between 0.1 and 10 microns), and that the rms surface-roughness is approximately 0.7 nm (for spatial frequencies between 1/mm and 1000/mm).

O'Dell, S. L.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Validation and Verification of Operational Land Analysis Activities at the Air Force Weather Agency

The NASA developed Land Information System (LIS) is the Air Force Weather Agency's (AFWA) operational Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) combining real time precipitation observations and analyses, global forecast model data, vegetation, terrain, and soil parameters with the community Noah land surface model, along with other hydrology module options, to generate profile analyses of global soil moisture, soil temperature, and other important land surface characteristics. (1) A range of satellite data products and surface observations used to generate the land analysis products (2) Global, 1/4 deg spatial resolution (3) Model analysis generated at 3 hours. AFWA recognizes the importance of operational benchmarking and uncertainty characterization for land surface modeling and is developing standard methods, software, and metrics to verify and/or validate LIS output products. To facilitate this and other needs for land analysis activities at AFWA, the Model Evaluation Toolkit (MET) -- a joint product of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Developmental Testbed Center (NCAR DTC), AFWA, and the user community -- and the Land surface Verification Toolkit (LVT), developed at the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), have been adapted to operational benchmarking needs of AFWA's land characterization activities.

Shaw, Michael↗

NASA NTRS2012

Analysis of Fine-Mode Aerosol Retrieval Capabilities by Different Passive Remote Sensing Instrument Designs

Remote sensing of aerosol optical properties is difficult, but multi-angle, multi-spectral, polarimetric instruments have the potential to retrieve sufficient information about aerosols that they can be used to improve global climate models. However, the complexity of these instruments means that it is difficult to intuitively understand the relationship between instrument design and retrieval success. We apply a Bayesian statistical technique that relates instrument characteristics to the information contained in an observation. Using realistic simulations of fine size mode dominated spherical aerosols, we investigate three instrument designs. Two of these represent instruments currently in orbit: the Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) and the POLarization and Directionality of the Earths Reflectances (POLDER). The third is the Aerosol Polarimetry Sensor (APS), which failed to reach orbit during recent launch, but represents a viable design for future instruments. The results show fundamental differences between the three, and offer suggestions for future instrument design and the optimal retrieval strategy for current instruments. Generally, our results agree with previous validation efforts of POLDER and airborne prototypes of APS, but show that the MISR aerosol optical thickness uncertainty characterization is possibly underestimated.

Knobelspiesse, Kirk↗

NASA NTRS2015

A Climate Generator for Agricultural Planning in Southeastern South America

A method is described for the generation of climate scenarios in a form suitable for driving agricultural models. The scenarios are tailored to the region in southeastern South America bounded by 25-40 deg S, 45-65 deg W, denoted here as SESA. SESA has been characterized by increasing summer precipitation, particularly during the late 20th century, which, in the context of favorable market conditions, has enabled increases in agricultural production. Since about year 2000, however, the upward tendency appears to have slowed or possibly stopped, raising questions about future climate inputs to regional agricultural yields. The method is not predictive in the deterministic sense, but rather attempts to characterize uncertainty in near-term future climate, taking into account both forced trends and unforced, natural climate fluctuations. It differs from typical downscaling methods in that GCM information is utilized only at the regional scale, subregional variability being modeled based on the observational record. Output, generated on the monthly time scale, is disaggregated to daily values with a weather generator and used to drive soybean yields in the crop model DSSAT-CSM, for which preliminary results are discussed. The simulations produced permit assessment of the interplay between long-range trends and near-term climate variability in terms of agricultural production.

climate simulation↗

NASA NTRS2015

VIIRS-J1 Polarization Narrative

The VIS/NIR bands polarization sensitivity of Joint Polar Satellite Sensor 1 (JPSS1) Visible/Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument was measured using a broadband source. While polarization sensitivity for bands M5-M7, I1, and I2 was less than 2.5%, the maximum polarization sensitivity for bands M1, M2, M3, and M4 was measured to be 6.4%, 4.4%, 3.1%, and 4.3%, respectively with a polarization characterization uncertainty of less than 0.3%. A detailed polarization model indicated that the large polarization sensitivity observed in the M1 to M4 bands was mainly due to the large polarization sensitivity introduced at the leading and trailing edges of the newly manufactured VISNIR bandpass focal plane filters installed in front of the VISNIR detectors. This was confirmed by polarization measurements of bands M1 and M4 bands using monochromatic light. Discussed are the activities leading up to and including the instruments two polarization tests, some discussion of the polarization model and the model results, the role of the focal plane filters, the polarization testing of the Aft-Optics-Assembly, the testing of the polarizers at Goddard and NIST and the use of NIST's T-SIRCUS for polarization testing and associated analyses and results.

polarization↗

NASA NTRS2017

Determining Cloud Thermodynamic Phase from Micropulse Lidar Network Data

Determining cloud thermodynamic phase is a critical factor in studies of Earth's radiation budget. Here we use observations from the NASA Micro Pulse Lidar Network (MPLNET) and thermodynamic profiles from the Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5) to distinguish liquid water, mixed-phase, and ice water clouds. The MPLNET provides sparse global, autonomous, and continuous measurements of clouds and aerosols which have been used in a number of scientific investigations to date. The use of a standardized instrument and a common suite of data processing algorithms with thorough uncertainty characterization allows for straightforward comparisons between sites. Lidars with polarization capabilities have recently been incorporated into the MPLNET project which allows, for the first time, the ability to infer a cloud thermodynamic phase. This presentation will look specifically at the occurrence of ice and mixed phase clouds in the temperature region of -10 C to -40 C for different climatological regions and seasons. We compare MPLNET occurrences of mixed-phase clouds to an historical climatology based on observations from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) instrument aboard the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) spacecraft.

mixing layer height↗

NASA NTRS2015

Progress of the NASA ACE Mission Polarimeter Working Group Instrument Inter-Comparison

The NASA Aerosol-Cloud-Ecosystem (ACE) mission is a National Research Council Decadal Survey recommended mission that will contain an imaging polarimeter for remote sensing of aerosols and clouds. A variety of airborne polarimeter prototypes exist, so the ACE Polarimeter Working Group (ACEPWG) was formed to share information between groups and collectively work for improved measurement techniques, uncertainty characterization, and algorithm development. The initial focus has been on observations made during the Polarimeter Definition Experiment (PODEX), conducted in early 2013 in Southern California. Three ACE mission supported polarimeters were deployed on the high altitude ER-2 aircraft as it flew over a variety of targets. Two of those instruments to date have successfully produced Level 1 (geolocated radiance and polarization) data. Initial matched scene inter-comparisons found little radiometric, but significant polarimetric, bias. After improvement to geolocation in one instrument, and calibration in the other, polarimetric comparisons have improved significantly. We will describe these results, remaining unresolved issues, and future plans.

Polarimeter↗

NASA NTRS2022

NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) 3.1: Model Verification and Validation

The NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) 3.1 Model Verification and Validation (V&V) document accompanies the delivery of the latest ORDEM 3.1 model (Vavrin & Manis, 2019) and provides a detailed description of the V&V activities used to verify that the model was built correctly and validate the model against independent, real world sources of data obtained from sampling the orbital debris environment. This ORDEM 3.1 Model V&V document, along with the related ORDEM 3.1 Model Process document – which covers details of the mathematical, statistical, and physical basis of the model – are intended to inform credibility assessments, risk analyses, uncertainty characterizations, and other applications derived from use of the model by the ORDEM 3.1 user community.

Timothy Kennedy↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Hyperspectral Sounder Products: SiFSAP and ClimFiSP

Infrared hyperspectral sounders have demonstrated to provide very high value information for a range of weather and climate applications. Traditional retrieval algorithms of hyperspectral sounders use the ‘cloud clearing’ methodology in the retrieval process due to the lack of means to account for cloud scattering effect. The corresponding Level-2 data products are therefore limited by two major factors: the degradation of spatial resolution as compared with the native resolution of the instruments and the lack of ‘radiance closure’ that is critically needed for climate trend studies. The single field-of-view (FOV) sounder atmospheric products (SiFSAP) algorithm has been developed to supplement existing operational products. The SiFSAP algorithm uses the principal component based radiative transfer model (PCRTM) that is ultra-fast and has been extensively validated for the cloud scattering simulation capability. The cloud properties are physically retrieved along with profiles of temperature, moisture, and trace gases of interest, surface properties simultaneously by fitting single FOV spectral measurements. Therefore, SiFSAP ensure the radiometric consistency between the retrieved geophysical properties and the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) spectral measurements. This presentation provides a general introduction of SiFSAP and details about the physical retrieval algorithm. Also introduced here is a derivative data product of SiFSAP, the climate fingerprinting Sounder Products (ClimFiSP). ClimFiSP include the space-time averaged properties of key climate variables that are derived from the space-time averaged radiances via the spectral fingerprinting scheme. The spectral fingerprinting method allows a low latency data update on ClimFiSP following any potential calibration update on satellite measurements. ClimFiSP also include the rigorously defined uncertainty characterization for trends or anomalies of climate variables, being critical for the construction of long-term climate data record. Both SiFSAP and ClimFiSP will be available to users through NASA's Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC).

Wan Wu↗

NASA NTRS2013

The Impact of Model and Rainfall Forcing Errors on Characterizing Soil Moisture Uncertainty in Land Surface Modeling

The contribution of rainfall forcing errors relative to model (structural and parameter) uncertainty in the prediction of soil moisture is investigated by integrating the NASA Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM), forced with hydro-meteorological data, in the Oklahoma region. Rainfall-forcing uncertainty is introduced using a stochastic error model that generates ensemble rainfall fields from satellite rainfall products. The ensemble satellite rain fields are propagated through CLSM to produce soil moisture ensembles. Errors in CLSM are modeled with two different approaches: either by perturbing model parameters (representing model parameter uncertainty) or by adding randomly generated noise (representing model structure and parameter uncertainty) to the model prognostic variables. Our findings highlight that the method currently used in the NASA GEOS-5 Land Data Assimilation System to perturb CLSM variables poorly describes the uncertainty in the predicted soil moisture, even when combined with rainfall model perturbations. On the other hand, by adding model parameter perturbations to rainfall forcing perturbations, a better characterization of uncertainty in soil moisture simulations is observed. Specifically, an analysis of the rank histograms shows that the most consistent ensemble of soil moisture is obtained by combining rainfall and model parameter perturbations. When rainfall forcing and model prognostic perturbations are added, the rank histogram shows a U-shape at the domain average scale, which corresponds to a lack of variability in the forecast ensemble. The more accurate estimation of the soil moisture prediction uncertainty obtained by combining rainfall and parameter perturbations is encouraging for the application of this approach in ensemble data assimilation systems.

Maggioni, V.↗