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Water isotopes, climate variability, and the hydrological cycle: recent advances and new frontiers

Abstract The hydrologic cycle is a fundamental component of the climate system with critical societal and ecological relevance. Yet gaps persist in our understanding of water fluxes and their response to increased greenhouse gas forcing. The stable isotope ratios of oxygen and hydrogen in water provide a unique opportunity to evaluate hydrological processes and investigate their role in the variability of the climate system and its sensitivity to change. Water isotopes also form the basis of many paleoclimate proxies in a variety of archives, including ice cores, lake and marine sediments, corals, and speleothems. These records hold most of the available information about past hydrologic variability prior to instrumental observations. Water isotopes thus provide a ‘common currency’ that links paleoclimate archives to modern observations, allowing us to evaluate hydrologic processes and their effects on climate variability on a wide range of time and length scales. Building on previous literature summarizing advancements in water isotopic measurements and modeling and describe water isotopic applications for understanding hydrological processes, this topical review reflects on new insights about climate variability from isotopic studies. We highlight new work and opportunities to enhance our understanding and predictive skill and offer a set of recommendations to advance observational and model-based tools for climate research. Finally, we highlight opportunities to better constrain climate sensitivity and identify anthropogenically-driven hydrologic changes within the inherently noisy background of natural climate variability.

Dee, Sylvia (ORCID:000000022140785X)↗

Opportunistic Short‐Term Water Uptake Dynamics by Subalpine Trees Observed via In Situ Water Isotope Measurements

Abstract Variations in tree water sources are important to understand in semi‐arid ecosystems because climatic shifts towards lower snowpack and increased drought affect water availability in subalpine forests of the western US. Here, we use daily in situ measurements of stable isotopes ( 2 H & 18 O) in soil and tree stem water, soil matric potential and sap flow to study tree water uptake dynamics. We instrumented three soil profiles down to 90 cm, as well as three aspen and engelmann spruce trees near Gothic, Colorado, in the East River watershed. We observed the fate of natural isotopic variations in rainfall, soil, and plants from June to October 2022, and in August 2023 we conducted a 2 H labeled irrigation experiment. Our observations showed that all studied aspen trees compensated for water scarcity in the shallow soil by shifting the dominant water source at 60(±20) cm to ⅔ of uptake from 90 cm within a few days of a dry period. Both species relied on snowmelt stored in the subsoil to sustain transpiration. Intense rainfall caused the plant water uptake to shift partially to top soil layers within 2 days. Spruce transpiration was lower and relied more on snowmelt, because rainfall infiltration was low in the spruce stand due to high canopy interception. Our findings highlight the important role of snowmelt stored in the deep soil layers for subalpine forest drought response and the dominant fate of monsoonal rainfall to become transpiration rather than recharging groundwater and streams in the Upper Colorado River. Plain Language Summary There is a need to understand how trees in mountainous regions respond to dry conditions that lead to water scarcity, because climate projections suggest that such conditions will become more frequent in the future. Here we present a novel data set of measurements of daily stable isotopes of water across soil profiles and in tree stems of aspen and spruce. Our data show that when the upper soil dried out, aspen trees shifted to using water from deeper layers (beneath 60 cm) to keep transpiring. For spruce trees the uptake pattern is less clear, but both types of trees mainly used snowmelt stored in the deeper soil layers to survive the dry summer. After heavy rain, aspen and spruce trees switched to using water from the top 20 cm of soil. However, for spruce, only some rain reached the soil because the dense tree canopy intercepted it, so spruce trees stayed more dependent on snowmelt and used less water overall. This study shows how important deep snowmelt water is for helping forests survive dry periods and suggests that most summer rain is quickly used by trees rather than replenishing streams and groundwater in the headwaters of the Colorado River. Key Points Tree water resources changed within a few days from snow dominated to higher share of rainfall as soils wetted up after a dry period Compensatory plant water uptake by aspen from the deep layer (90 cm), while uptake from soil depths that became drier (60 cm) declined Strong differences between water sources and availability beneath aspen and spruce, respectively

Sprenger, Matthias↗

California Trees Seasonally Use Augmented Water Sources: Water Isotope Tracking in a Groundwater‐Dependent Ecosystem

Sustainable groundwater management must account for the needs of groundwater dependent ecosystems. To understand the relationship of ecosystems and seasonal water use, we studied the stable isotope composition (δ 18 O and δ 2 H) of water in streamside trees in a semi-arid streamside environment (Livermore, California, USA). We sampled seven trees at two sites every other month from April 2024 through April 2025 for tree xylem stable water isotope signatures. These data were compared to potential source waters: precipitation, imported surface water, soil water and regional groundwaters. Large daily precipitation events were found to be isotopically similar to regional groundwater and were thus treated as one water source. A Bayesian mixing model using stable water isotopes was used to determine the ratios of these three potential source waters (small daily precipitation events, groundwater/large daily precipitation events and imported water) present in tree xylem water. On average, tree water sources include 32% imported water (SD = 9%), 35% small daily precipitation events (SD = 10%) and 33% groundwater (SD = 3%), with significant seasonal variation (t summer-winter = 30.8, p < 0.01), particularly drawing more imported water (more than 55%) in the summer. While small daily precipitation events contribute only 10% of the total precipitation in our dataset, it represents a third of water used by trees. In addition, while these ecosystems are designated as groundwater dependent ecosystems, the trees use approximately one third imported water and even more during dry summer months. This approach provides water managers with a practical tool for quantifying ecosystem water needs, supporting data-driven decisions and regulatory compliance. While California's Sustainable Groundwater Management Act emphasizes supporting groundwater dependent ecosystems, it allows flexibility in demonstrating benefits. In conclusion, our methodology provides a way to document that management actions (such as managed aquifer recharge with imported water) deliver measurable co-benefits to GDEs.

Geosciences↗

The Connected Isotopic Water Cycle in the Community Earth System Model Version 1

Because of the pervasive role of water in the Earth system, the relative abundances of stable isotopologues of water are valuable for understanding atmospheric, oceanic, and biospheric processes, and for interpreting paleoclimate proxy reconstructions. Isotopologues are transported by both largescale and turbulent flows, and the ratio of heavy to light isotopologues changes due to fractionation that can accompany condensation and evaporation processes. Correctly predicting the isotopic distributions requires resolving the relationships between largescale ocean and atmospheric circulation and smallerscale hydrological processes, which can be accomplished within a coupled climate modeling framework. Here we present the water isotopeenabled version of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (iCESM1), which simulates global variations in water isotopic ratios in the atmosphere, land, ocean, and sea ice. In a transient Last Millennium simulation covering the 850-2005 period, iCESM1 correctly captures the latetwentiethcentury structure of δ(exp 18)O and δD over the global oceans, with more limited accuracy over land. The relationship between salinity and seawater δ(exp 18)O is also well represented over the observational period, including interbasin variations. We illustrate the utility of coupled, isotopeenabled simulations using both Last Millennium simulations and freshwater hosing experiments with iCESM1. Closing the isotopic mass balance between all components of the coupled model provides new confidence in the underlying depiction of the water cycle in CESM, while also highlighting areas where the underlying hydrologic balance can be improved. The iCESM1 is poised to be a vital community resource for ongoing model development with both modern and paleoclimate applications.

Brady, E.↗

Water Isotopes in Precipitation: Data/Model Comparison for Present-Day and Past Climates

Variations of HDO and H2O-18 concentrations are observed in precipitation both on a geographical and on a temporal basis. These variations, resulting from successive isotopic fractionation processes at each phase change of water during its atmospheric cycle, are well documented through the IAEA/WMO network and other sources. Isotope concentrations are, in middle and high latitudes, linearly related to the annual mean temperature at the precipitation site. Paleoclimatologists have used this relationship to infer paleotemperatures from isotope paleodata extractable from ice cores, deep groundwater and other such sources. For this application to be valid, however, the spatial relationship must also hold in time at a given location as the location undergoes a series of climatic changes. Progress in water isotope modeling aimed at examining and evaluating this assumption has been recently reviewed with a focus on polar regions and, more specifically, on Greenland. This article was largely based on the results obtained using the isotopic version of the NASA/GISS Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) fitted with isotope tracer diagnostics. We extend this review in comparing the results of two different isotopic AGCMs (NASA/GISS and ECHAM) and in examining, with a more global perspective, the validity of the above assumption, i.e. the equivalence of the spatial and temporal isotope-temperature relationship. We also examine recent progress made in modeling the relationship between the conditions prevailing in moisture source regions for precipitation and the deuterium-excess of that precipitation.

Jouzel, J.↗

Conifer water use patterns in the East River Watershed, Colorado US, based on stable water isotopes and cellulose isotopes

This data package contains a series of datasets aimed at understanding the seasonal origins of water used by the dominant conifer species, Abies lasiocarpa and Picea engelmannii, in the East River Watershed. There is a distinct difference in the stable isotopic ratio of summer rain and snowpack and thus by tracking the isotopic ratio of the xylem water in trees, it is possible to separate when a tree is using snow vs. summer rain. Following typical protocols, we sampled and extracted water from soils in the "Research Meadow" near Gothic, CO within the East River Watershed through the 2016 growing season. The stable isotopic ratio of these waters were then measured. Using values of the isotopic ratio of precipitation and snowpack from that season, we develop a mixing model to show how the trees transitioned from use of snowpack to summer in late July. We extended the information on the seasonal origins of water from 2016 back until 1980 by using measurements of the isotopic ratio of cellulose from trees in the Research Meadow. The isotopic ratio of tree ring cellulose records a signal both of the Vapor Pressure Deficit at the leaf-atmosphere boundary and also the source water for the trees. We concluded from this extended analysis that the trees underwent transitions between periods where snow was the dominant water source and summer rain was the dominant water source. More details on this analysis can be found in the publication: Persistence and Plasticity in Conifer Water Use Strategies. JGR Biogeoscience. DOI 10.1029/2018JG004845. The dataset specifically includes stable isotope measurements of xylem and soil water for Spruce and Fir trees at the Rocky Mountain Biological Lab's Research Meadow as well as snowpack and precipitation stable isotopes from nearby National Atmospheric Deposition Program sites. Associated meteorological data is included, which is needed to understand the source water for the trees based on the cellulose measurements.This dataset was updated in June 2021 also include intra-ring measurements of the d18O and d13C of cellulose these same species of trees at the Ziegler Reservoir site in Snowmass, CO. These are listed as files: "Interglaciald18OCellulose.csv", "Interglaciald13OCellulose.csv" and "Modernd13CCellulose.csv". The intent of these measurements was to assess whether common conifers (abies and picea) had undergone ecophysiological or ecohydrological changes during the last period in Earth's history was warmer than today, i.e. the last Interglacial (116,000 to 130,000 years ago). This site was chosen because it is a location where subfossil wood from this critical warm period was discovered. We measured the d18O and d13C of the subfossil trees following the same protocol as the modern samples which included chemical extraction of cellulose and isotope ratio mass spectrometry. We found that the trees showed little difference in water use efficiency but utilized more summer rain during the interglacial period. This analysis and detailed methods are provided in the following manuscript: Wetter summers mitigated temperature stress on Rocky Mountain forests during the last interglacial warm period which is in revision at GRL but is available as a preprint here: 10.1002/essoar.10506740.2

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Strong Water Isotopic Anomalies in the Martian Atmosphere: Probing Current and Ancient Reservoirs

We measured maps of atmospheric water (H2O) and its deuterated form (HDO) across the martian globe, showing strong isotopic anomalies and a significant high deuterium/hydrogen (D/H) enrichment indicative of great water loss. The maps sample the evolution of sublimation from the north polar cap, revealing that the released water has a representative D/H value enriched by a factor of about 7 relative to Earth's ocean [Vienna standard mean ocean water (VSMOW)]. Certain basins and orographic depressions show even higher enrichment, whereas high-altitude regions show much lower values (1 to 3 VSMOW). Our atmospheric maps indicate that water ice in the polar reservoirs is enriched in deuterium to at least 8 VSMOW, which would mean that early Mars (4.5 billion years ago) had a global equivalent water layer at least 137 meters deep.

Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.↗

A Submm-Wave Comet Explorer for Water Isotopic Composition Measurements

Remote submm-wave spectrometers have the capability of providing statistically significant numbers of isotopic composition measurements within the budget constraints of available planetary missions. This talk will present a mission and instrument concept that would enable an accurate measurement of the D/H ratio on not one but several dozens of comets in a four-year mission lifetime. The instrument would utilize advanced cryogenic detectors that would allow us to measure the abundance of the para and ortho spin states of water and its isotopologues. State of the art superconducting heterodyne receivers have been developed that provide detection sensitivities approaching the quantum limit in the 500 GHz frequency range enabling the measurement of D/H ratio on around 50 comets from an observatory stationed for example at the thermally benign Lagrange point L2.

Feldman, Sabrina↗

Temperature Trends in the Northwestern Tibetan Plateau Constrained by Ice Core Water Isotopes Over the Past 7,000 Years

Abstract The reasons for the Holocene temperature conundrum, known as the inconsistency between the reconstructed cooling and the inferred warming simulations during the Holocene, remain unclear. Temperature reconstructions from the Tibetan Plateau (TP) provide important insights for understanding the Holocene temperature conundrum due to enhanced sensitivity to climate at high altitudes. Given the significant positive correlation between air temperature and δ 18 O in precipitation over the northern TP, the stable isotopic records of ice cores recovered from this area are widely used for paleotemperature reconstruction. Here we present a new high‐resolution δ 18 O record from the Chongce ice cores to bedrock, dated back to 7 ka BP by the accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) 14 C dating technique. Our reconstructed temperature record shows a long‐term warming trend until ~2 ka BP, followed by an abrupt change to a relatively cool period until the start of the industrial‐era warming. This record challenges the widely recognized Holocene reconstruction from the neighboring Guliya ice core. It is also different from many previous temperature reconstructions, most of which have summer biases and show a long‐term cooling trend over the past two millennia. In addition, our record shows that temperatures during the recent decades are almost the highest during the past 7 ka BP, highlighting the unusual warming forced by anthropogenic greenhouse gases.

Pang, Hongxi↗

The stable isotopes of natural waters at the Marcell Experimental Forest

Here, we present a new data set from the Marcell Experimental Forest (MEF) that compiles water isotope measurements from multiple research catchments, some of which have been studied since the 1960s. The MEF is located in northern Minnesota, USA, and is home to heavily studied and monitored forests, streams, bogs, and fens. Peat-forming systems (bogs and fens) are an important component of the MEF landscape and have a profound impact on the water cycle in these catchments. Within the last decade, analysis of stable isotopes of water (expressed as δD and δ 18 O) has been implemented to characterize the different components of the water budget, and to allow researchers to look at catchment and peatland-specific hydrologic effects in the watershed. This δD and δ 18 O data set of natural waters from MEF catchments is primarily composed of measurements from three peatlands (S1, S2, S6) during an 11-year period. More recently collection and analysis were expanded to also include samples from the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments (SPRUCE) project in the S1 bog, peatlands S3, S4, S5, as well as nearby lakes. We establish a local meteoric water line by analyzing the isotopic composition of precipitation, which fills a void in regional meteoric water lines for Minnesota. Furthermore, we establish baseline isotopic composition for bog outlet streams, bog porewater, aquifer groundwater, overland flow, subsurface stormflow, and snowpack, as well as runoff from the SPRUCE experimental chambers. These data are publicly available and will be expanded upon in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Water vapor isotopic composition during TRACER IOP

The TRACER-Iso project took place from June 1 to September 30, 2022 as part of the intensive observation period (IOP) of the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions (TRACER) project at the main project site at the La Porte, Texas, municipal airport. The project sought to use measurements of the stable isotopic composition of water vapor to better understand cloud-aerosol interactions in deep convection in a polluted urban setting. Water vapor isotopologue and humidity measurements were determined using a Picarro L2130 Water Vapor Isotope Analyzer. The instrument was deployed in the guest van and consists of three main components: a water vapor isotope analyzer, and a Los Gatos Research Water Vapor Isotope Standard Source (WVISS), and a Los Gatos Research Dry Air Source. Ambient air samples were collected through an inlet located about one meter above roof of the shipping container. Samples were then delivered to the analyzer through teflon tubing by use of an external pump to minimize the transport time between the inlet and analyzer. The inlet tubing was surrounded by a Briskheat heat trace and insulating material to ensure ambient air samples did not fall below the dew point and result in condensation. The analyzer uses cavity ringdown spectroscopy to report isotopic ratios of ambient air samples at a frequency of 1 Hz. The calibration unit of the instrument was used in conjunction with the dry air source to periodically measure the δ values of standard waters. It uses a nebulizer to push small water droplets into a hot chamber that vaporizes the water without fractionation. This vapor was then transported to the analyzer using a built-in compressor and the dry air source, which allows each standard with known δ values to be measured at a wide range of humidity values for post-measurement calibration of ambient air samples. There are multiple sources of uncertainty introduced at different stages during the data collection and processing. These include (1) instrument precision, (2) uncertainty in the secondary standards, (3) humidity-correction uncertainty, and (4) VSMOW-SLAP calibration uncertainty. Uncertainty from each step is propagated in quadrature to calculate a total uncertainty of each isotopologue. Uncertainty was determined to be 2.3‰ for δD and 0.4‰ for δ18O.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Using stable isotopes in water vapor to study the interdependence of clouds, atmospheric aerosols, and precipitation processes

This project deployed water vapor isotope measurements at the La Porte, Texas TRACER site during June-September 2022 to quantify mixing processes in sea breeze circulations. Using a Picarro L2130 analyzer, we collected high-frequency measurements of δD and δ¹⁸O that revealed how marine and terrestrial air masses mix during 46 identified sea breeze events. The isotopic tracers showed systematic changes during frontal passages, with composite analyses demonstrating vertical mixing between cool marine air and warmer air aloft. We developed a transilient matrix model that explicitly treats non-local mixing and isotopic fractionation to interpret the observations. The work directly supports TRACER's core objective of understanding convective initiation by constraining the vertical transport of water vapor and its interaction with Houston's aerosol-laden urban plume during sea breeze-convection coupling.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Water Vapor Isotopic Composition During SAIL

Measurements of the stable isotopic composition of water vapor were collected between 21 November 2022 and 1 June 2023 at the SAIL campaign main site in Gothic Colorado. The data were obtained using a Los Gatos Research Triple Water Vapor Isotopic Analyzer from a heated and insulated inlet mounted on the roof of the guest instrument van. Standards were run periodically during the campaign and the data were corrected for humidity-dependent biases and were normalized to the VSMOW/SLAP scale. Uncertainties in dD and d18O are estimated to be 2.28 permil and 0.38 permil, respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Relationship between isotope ratios in precipitation and stream water across watersheds of the National Ecological Observation Network

The timescales associated with precipitation moving through watersheds reveal processes that are critical to understanding many hydrologic systems. Measurements of environmental stable water isotope ratios (δ 2 H and δ 18 O) have been used as tracers to study hydrologic timescales by examining how long it takes for incoming precipitation tracers become stream discharge, yet limited measurements both spatially and temporally have bounded macroscale evaluations so far. Here in this observation driven study across North American biomes within the National Ecological Observation Network (NEON), we examined δ 18 O and δ 2 H stable water isotope in precipitation (δP) and stream water (δQ) at 26 co-located sites. With an average 54 precipitation samples and 139 stream water samples per site collected over 2014–2022, assessment of local meteoric water lines and local stream water lines showed geographic variation across North America. Taking the ratio of estimated seasonal amplitudes of δP and δQ to calculate young water fractions (F yw ), showed a Fyw range from 1% to 93% with most sites having F yw below 20%. Calculate d mean transit times (MTT) based on a gamma convolution model showed a MTT range from 0.10 to 13.2 years, with half of the sites having MTT estimates lower than 2 years. Significant correlations were found between the F yw and watershed area, longest flow length, and the longest flow length/slope. Significant correlations were found between MTT and site latitude, longitude, slope, clay fraction, temperature, precipitation magnitude, and precipitation frequency. The significant correlations between water timescale metrics and the environmental characteristics we report share some similarities with those reported in prior studies, demonstrating that these quantities are primarily driven by site or area specific factors. The analysis of isotope data presented here provides important constraints on isotope variation in North American biomes and the timescales of water movement through NEON study sites.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Significance of Water Vapor Isotopes in Improving Weather Prediction

Water vapor isotopes carry the integrated history of evaporation, condensation, mixing, and transport. Although previous studies have shown potential to improve forecasts under controlled conditions, real-world applications have been limited by systematic biases in both models and satellite retrievals arising from sparse measurements in the free troposphere. Here we assimilate mid‑tropospheric δD retrievals (peak sensitivity ~4.2 km) from the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer into the Isotope‑incorporated Global Spectral Model and evaluate the added value beyond co‑assimilated temperature and specific humidity with identical spatial and temporal coverage. Assimilating δD improves 0–120 h forecasts of wind, temperature, specific humidity, and geopotential height, with the largest gains in the midlatitudes; heavy‑precipitation skill also increases for thresholds >3 mm per 6 h. Demonstrated in a coarse‑resolution configuration with limited observations, the results indicate that isotopic information strengthens transport tracking and hydrological constraints, motivating evaluation in operational high‑resolution forecasting systems.

Hydrology↗

Stratospheric profiles of heavy water vapor isotopes and CH3D from analysis of the ATMOS Spacelab 3 infrared solar spectra

The isotopic composition of stratospheric water vapor and methane was investigated. Stratospheric profiles of HDO, (H-18)2O, (H-17)2O, and CH3D were derived from solar occultation spectra recorded on April 30 - May 1, 1985 by the Atmospheric Trace Molecule Spectroscopy Fourier transform spectrometer aboard Spacelab 3. The profiles of the three water-vapor isotopes showed an increase in the volume mixing ratio with altitude. The measured profiles of D/H in water vapor showed a large depletion in the lower stratosphere (about 63 percent relative to standard mean ocean water, SMOW, at 20 km) and a small increase in D/H with altitude at higher altitudes, up to 34 km. The D/H ratio in stratospheric methane was close to the corresponding isotopic ratio in SMOW.

Rinsland, C. P.↗

CAPE-K_ISO: Water vapor isotopic measurements from Western Tasmania

This dataset provides processed 1-minute water vapor isotope observations from the Water Vapor Isotopic Measurements During CAPE-K project at the Kennaook/Cape Grim Baseline Air Pollution Station in northwestern Tasmania. Measurements were made with a Picarro L-2130 cavity ring-down spectroscopy analyzer during the CAPE-K deployment. The dataset includes water vapor mixing ratio, d18O, dD, deuterium excess, and propagated 1-sigma uncertainties. Isotope ratios are calibrated to the VSMOW/SLAP scale. Calibration intervals, transition periods, and obvious isotope outliers have been removed. The processed record spans 11 June 2024 to 15 October 2025 and is intended for studies of Southern Ocean marine boundary-layer moisture, isotope variability, air-sea exchange, and cloud and precipitation processes.

Water Vapor Isotopic Composition↗