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I shall review current efforts on measurement based assessment of the aerosol radiative effects at the top of the atmosphere using MODIS, CERES and VIRS instruments, and radiative effects at the surface using AERONET. I shall also discuss use of the MODIS derived fine aerosol fraction for assess the anthropogenic component.
Report consists of: 1. List of accomplishments 2. List of publications 3. Abstracts of published or submitted papers and 4. Subject invention disclosure. The accomplishments of the grant listed are: 1. Improved the third-order turbulence closure in cloud resolving models to remove the liquid water oscillation. 2. Used the University of California-Los Angeles (UCLA) large-eddy simulation (LES) model to provide data for radiation transfer testing. 3. Revised shortwave k-distribution models based on HITRAN 2000. 4. Developed a gamma-weighted two-stream radiative transfer model for radiation budget estimate applications. 5. Estimated the effect of spherical geometry to the earth radiation budget. 6. Estimated top-of-atmosphere irradiance over snow and sea ice surfaces. 7. Estimated the aerosol direct radiative effect at the top of the atmosphere. 8. Estimated the top-of-atmosphere reflectance of the clear-sky molecular atmosphere over ocean. 9. Developed and validated new set of Angular Distribution Models for the CERES TRMM satellite instrument (tropical) 10. Developed and validated new set of Angular Distribution Models for the CERES Terra satellite instrument (global) 11. Quantified the top-of-atmosphere direct radiative effect of aerosols over global oceans from merged CERES and MODIS observations 12 Clarified the definition of TOA flux reference level for radiation budget studies 13. Developed new algorithm for unfaltering CERES measured radiances 14. Used multiangle POLDER measurements to produce narrowband angular distribution models and examine the effect of scene identification errors on TOA albedo estimates 15. Developed and validated a novel algorithm called the Multidirectional Reflectance Matching (MRM) model for inferring TOA albedos from ice clouds using multi-angle satellite measurements. 16. Developed and validated a novel algorithm called the Multidirectional Polarized Reflectance Matching (MPRM) model for inferring particle shapes from ice clouds using multi-angle polarized satellite measurements. 17. Developed 4 advanced light scattering models including the three-dimensional (3D) uniaxial perfectly matched layer (UPML) finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) model. 18. Develop sunglint in situ measurement and study reflectance distribution in the sunglint area. 19. Lead a balloon-borne radiometer TOA albedo validation effort. 20. Developed a CERES surface UVB, UVA, and UV index product.
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Sensitivity studies using the Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) bands are currently under investigation. The objective of this research is to develop improved algorithms for the determination of aerosol type (e.g., presently described by S(sub 12). Preliminary computer calculations were made using LOWTRAN 7, which is the most advanced atmospheric code of the Air Force Geophysics Laboratory. LOWTRAN 7 permits the calculation of atmospheric transmission and absorption caused by aerosols and molecules along a non-homogeneous path for a variety of aerosol models. The calculations used the Navy Aerosol Model (NAM), which was constructed for the marine environment using a three component size distribution model. Calculations of the total transmittance (L(sub T)), the path radiance (L(sub P)), and the reflected radiance (L(sub r)) were made as a function of wavelength (lambda) from 0.4 to 2.4 microns for each of the 224 10 nm wide AVIRIS bands. These calculations were made for various types of atmospheres for the troposphere (0-2 km).
The Mars Exploration Analysis Group's Next Orbiter Science Analysis Group (NEXSAG) has recently identified atmospheric wind measurements as one of 5 top compelling science objectives for a future Mars orbiter. To date, only isolated lander observations of martian winds exist. Winds are the key variable to understand atmospheric transport and answer fundamental questions about the three primary cycles of the martian climate: CO2, H2O, and dust. However, the direct lack of observations and imprecise and indirect inferences from temperature observations leave many basic questions about the atmospheric circulation unanswered. In addition to addressing high priority science questions, direct wind observations from orbit would help validate 3D general circulation models (GCMs) while also providing key input to atmospheric reanalyses. The dust and CO2 cycles on Mars are partially coupled and their influences on the atmospheric circulation modify the global wind field. Dust absorbs solar infrared radiation and its variable spatial distribution forces changes in the atmospheric temperature and wind fields. Thus it is important to simultaneously measure the height-resolved wind and dust profiles. MARLI provides a unique capability to observe these variables continuously, day and night, from orbit.
Atmospheric aerosols and their impact on cloud properties remain the largest uncertainty in the human forcing of the climate system. By increasing the concentration of cloud droplets (Nd), aerosols reduce droplet size and increase the reflectivity of clouds (a negative radiative forcing). Central to this climate impact is the susceptibility of cloud droplet number to aerosol (β), the diversity of which explains much of the variation in the radiative forcing from aerosol–cloud interactions (RFaci) in global climate models. This has made measuring β a key target for developing observational constraints of the aerosol forcing.
Water stresses on agricultural crops during critical phases of crop phenology (such as grain filling) has higher impact on the eventual yield than at other times of crop growth. Therefore farmers are more concerned about water stresses in the context of crop phenology than the meteorological droughts. However the drought estimates currently produced do not account for the crop phenology. US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have developed a drought monitoring decision support tool: The U.S. Drought Monitor, which currently uses meteorological droughts to delineate and categorize drought severity. Output from the Drought Monitor is used by the States to make disaster declarations. More importantly, USDA uses the Drought Monitor to make estimates of crop yield to help the commodities market. Accurate estimation of corn yield is especially critical given the recent trend towards diversion of corn to produce ethanol. Ethanol is fast becoming a standard 10% ethanol additive to petroleum products, the largest traded commodity. Thus the impact of large-scale drought will have dramatic impact on the petroleum prices as well as on food prices. USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) serves as a focal point for economic intelligence and the commodity outlook for U.S. WAOB depends on Drought Monitor and has emphatically stated that accurate and timely data are needed in operational agrometeorological services to generate reliable projections for agricultural decision makers. Thus, improvements in the prediction of drought will reflect in early and accurate assessment of crop yields, which in turn will improve commodity projections. We have developed a drought assessment tool, which accounts for the water stress in the context of crop phenology. The crop modeling component is done using various crop modules within Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT). DSSAT is an agricultural crop simulation system, which integrates the effects of soil, crop phenotype, weather, and management options. It has been in use for more than 15 years by researchers, growers and has become a de-facto standard in crop modeling communities spanning over 100 countries. The meteorological forcings to DSSAT are provided by NASA s National Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) datasets. NLDAS is a framework that incorporates atmospheric forcing and land parameter values along with land surface models to diagnose and predict the state of the land surface.
Meteorological soundings representative of the atmospheric environment at the Kennedy Space Center, Florida and Vandenberg Air Force Base, California, are presented. Synthetic meteorological soundings at Kennedy Space Center, including fall, spring, and a sea breeze, and at Vandenberg Air Force Base (sea breeze with low and high level inversion and stationary upper level troughs) are shown. Soundings of frontal passages are listed. The Titan launch soundings at Kennedy Space Center present a wide range of meteorological conditions, both seasonal and time of day variations. The meteorological data input of altitude, wind speed, wind direction, temperature, and pressure may be used as meteorological inputs for the NASA/MSFC Multilayer Diffusion Model or other models to obtain quantitative estimates of effluent concentrations associated with the potential emission of major combustion products in the lower atmosphere to simulate actual launches of space vehicles. The Titan launch soundings are also of value in terms of rocket effluent measurements for analysis purposes.
Megadroughts, often lasting multiple decades, have caused major ecological and societal disturbances in the past. While most research has focused on megadroughts in North America, the concept has gained increased international attention in recent years. In this Review, we discuss shared causes and features of Common Era and future megadroughts. Paleoclimate reconstructions spanning the last 2,000 years document the occurrence of megadroughts on every continent, save Antarctica. Megadroughts are often linked to decadal variations in sea surface temperatures, with radiative forcing and land-atmosphere interactions acting as secondary factors. Anthropogenic climate change has already contributed to recent megadroughts in southwestern North America and Chile-Argentina and will likely increase future megadrought risk and severity in many regions. Notably, future megadroughts will be differentiated from past events through higher temperatures, which act as the main driver of increased risk, severity, and impacts. Major deficiencies in our understanding of natural and anthropogenic megadrought processes remain, however. These include 1) sparse high-resolution paleoclimate information over some regions, 2) incomplete representations of internal variability and land-surface processes in climate models, and 3) the undetermined capacity of water-resource management systems to manage megadrought impacts. Resolving these key uncertainties will be necessary to increase confidence in projections of future megadrought risk and resiliency planning.
We have designed and executed a set of predictability experiments, designed around the driest and wettest June soil moisture anomalies from a CCM3 simulation forced by observed SST for the period from 1958 through 1998. Each set contains an ensemble of five runs, all begun on June I radiation date. One set of these experiments helps to assess the extent to which the wet or dry conditions depend solely on the initial state of the atmosphere. The other set of experiments helps to assess the extent to which the wet or dry conditions depend sole on the initial state of the land surface. Preliminary analysis of these experiments suggests that the initial atmospheric state is more important than the initial state of the surface soil moisture in predicting the occurrence of wet or dry periods. These results suggest that when the atmosphere is inclined to generate dry surface conditions (through reduced moisture availability and increased evaporation) it matters little what initial levels of soil water are at; the soil will rapidly dry out. The ensemble forcing the ensembles with dry soil conditions, but utilizing 'normal' atmospheric conditions show little if any indication of the sharp reduction in soil moisture experienced in the control, indicating that the 'normal' atmospheric state is more important than the initial state of the soil moisture in predicting the occurrence of drought. Our work to date has documented the response of surface hydrologic variability, particularly over North America, to atmospheric forcing. While we have seen some suggestion that pre-existing surface anomalies can affect atmospheric circulation over this region, by far the strongest signal is the atmospheric anomalies leading those of soil moisture and surface energy balance changes. This is not an unexpected result since wintertime NA precipitation links to remote atmospheric forcing by ENSO are known to be statistically significant. While warm season links to remote forcing are more tenuous and not well explored, the present results encourage us to examine in more detail the SST forcing from the tropical and North Pacific.
It is tempting to speculate on the possibility that solar flares sometimes are the initial cause of and atmospheric disturbance, which cumulative effect may give rise to a correlation at the 11 year timescale. Reasons to reconsider the possible relevance of solar flare response studies are stated. The discovery of the apparently decisive role of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillations (QBO) in establishing the atmospheric response pattern to solar forcing may throw new light on some of the earlier published relations. Reanalysis of old data in some cases may be advisable. Data on solar flares and their effects on the earth's atmosphere might be a promising candidate for reexamination.
The chemical-dynamical model of Walterscheid et al. (1987), which describes wave-driven fluctuations in OH nightglow, was modified to include the effects of both eddy thermal conduction and viscosity, as well as the Coriolis force (with the shallow atmosphere approximation). Using the new model, calculations were performed for the same nominal case as used by Walterscheid et al. but with only wave periods considered. For this case, the Coriolis force was found to be unimportant at any wave period. For wave periods greater than 2 or 3 hours, the inclusion of thermal conduction alone greatly modified the results (in terms of a complex ratio 'eta' which expresses the relationship between the intensity oscillation about the time-averaged intensity and the temperature oscillation about the time-averaged temperature); this effect was reduced with the further inclusion of the eddy viscosity.
A parametric study of the instantaneous radiative impact of contrails is presented using three different radiative transfer models for a series of model atmospheres and cloud parameters. Contrails are treated as geometrically and optically thin plane parallel homogeneous cirrus layers in a static atmospheres The ice water content is varied as a function of ambient temperature. The model atmospheres include tropical, mid-latitude, and subarctic summer and winter atmospheres Optically thin contrails cause a positive net forcing at top of the atmosphere. At the surface the radiative forcing is negative during daytime. The forcing increases with the optical depth and the amount of contrail cover. At the top of the atmosphere a mean contrail cover of 0.1% with average optical depth of 0.2 to 0.5 causes about 0.01 to 0.03 W/m(exp 2)a daily mean instantaneous radiative forcing. Contrails cool the surface during the day and heat the surface during the night, and hence reduce the daily temperature amplitude The net effect depends strongly on the daily variation of contrail cloud cover. The indirect radiative forcing due to particle changes in natural cirrus clouds may be of the same magnitude as the direct one due to additional cover.
Ensembles of atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) seasonal forecasts and long-term simulations (1980-94) are analyzed to assess the controlling influences of boundary forcing and memory of the initial conditions. Both the forecasts and simulations are carried out with version 2 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-2) GCM forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). While much of the focus is on the seasonal time scale (January- March) and the Pacific North American (PNA) region, we also present results for other regions, shorter time scales, and other known modes of variability in the northern hemisphere extratropics. Forecasts of indices of some of the key large-scale modes of variability show that there is considerable variability in skill between different regions of the Northern Hemisphere. The eastern North Atlantic region has the poorest long lead forecast skill showing no skill beyond about 10 days. Skillful seasonal forecasts are primarily confined to the wave-like ENSO response emanating from the tropical Pacific. In the Northern Hemisphere, this is associated with the well-known Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern. Memory of the initial conditions is the major factor leading to skillful extratropical forecasts of lead time less than one month, while SST forcing is the only factor at the seasonal time scale. SST forcing contributes to skillful forecasts at sub- seasonal time scales only over the PNA region. The GEOS-2 GCM produces average (1980-94) signal to noise ratios which are less than one everywhere in the extratropics, except for the subtropical Pacific where they approach 1.5. When confined to the ENSO years, the maximum signal to noise ratios occur in the PNA region where they exceed three. An assessment of the sampling distribution of the forecasts suggests the model's ENSO response is very likely too weak. These results show some sensitivity to the uncertainties in the estimates of the SST forcing fields. In the North Pacific region, the sensitivity to SST forcing manifests itself primarily as changes in the variability of the PNA response, underscoring the need for an ensemble approach to the seasonal prediction problem.
Dust aerosols perturb the atmospheric radiative flux at both solar and thermal wavelengths, altering the energy and water cycles. The climate adjusts by redistributing energy and moisture, so that local temperature perturbations, for example, depend upon the forcing over the entire extent of the perturbed circulation. Within regions frequently mixed by deep convection, including the deep tropics, dust particles perturb the surface air temperature primarily through radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). Many models predict that dust reduces global precipitation. This reduction is typically attributed to the decrease of surface evaporation in response to dimming of the surface. A counterexample is presented, where greater shortwave absorption by dust increases evaporation and precipitation despite greater dimming of the surface. This is attributed to the dependence of surface evaporation upon TOA forcing through its influence upon surface temperature and humidity. Perturbations by dust to the surface wind speed and vegetation (through precipitation anomalies) feed back upon the dust aerosol concentration. The current uncertainty of radiative forcing attributed to dust and the resulting range of climate perturbations calculated by models remain a useful test of our understanding of the mechanisms relating dust radiative forcing to the climate response.
The Orion Aerosciences program at NASA Langley has played a central role in advancing the aerodynamic and aeroheating prediction capabilities required for the Orion crew vehicle’s return from deep space. This presentation provides a technical overview of aerosciences contributions spanning Exploration Flight Test-1 (EFT-1), Artemis I, and the ongoing post-flight analysis of Artemis II. EFT-1 provided the first high-energy entry dataset for Orion, enabling critical validation of aerodynamic force and moment predictions, static and dynamic stability characteristics, and aeroheating environments at relevant flight Mach and Reynolds numbers. Flight-derived pressure data were used to refine the Flush Air Data System (FADS) methodology for atmospheric density reconstruction and to improve Best Estimated Trajectory (BET) solutions. The EFT-1 data also offered key insights into heat shield performance, including char layer recession, in-depth thermal response, and material retention behavior under flight conditions, informing updates to both thermal response models and uncertainty quantification practices. Building on EFT-1, Artemis I extended the database to true lunar-return conditions. Observations of heat shield performance, including localized char loss, bondline response, and recession variability, provided an unprecedented opportunity to reassess Thermal Protection System (TPS) and aeroheating modeling assumptions. Aerodynamic reconstruction efforts incorporated improved FADS calibration, enhanced atmospheric modeling, and refined force and moment databases to reduce trajectory and load uncertainties. Aeroheating comparisons between pre-flight predictions and flight data enabled targeted model updates, particularly in transitional flow environments and wake heating regions. For Artemis II, these lessons were systematically incorporated into the pre-flight prediction process. Updates included refined aerodynamic databases anchored to flight-validated corrections, improved density estimation and BET methodologies using enhanced database interpolation algorithm and FADS modeling, and revised aeroheating design environments informed by Artemis I material response observations. By the time of the workshop, Artemis II post-flight analysis will be underway, and preliminary findings will be presented where available, including early comparisons of aerodynamic reconstruction, atmospheric density estimation, and thermal protection system performance relative to updated predictions. Collectively, this body of work is a testament to the dedicated and multidisciplinary team whose sustained efforts have contributed to the program’s success and to the progressive maturation of Orion aerosciences modeling through numerical modeling, ground and flight data assimilation. The integrated advancement of aerodynamics, trajectory reconstruction, FADS-based density estimation, and aeroheating analysis has reduced predictive uncertainty and strengthened confidence for future crewed lunar and deep-space missions.
Aeroassisted orbital transfer vehicles (AOTVs) are a proposed type of reusable spacecraft that would be used to transport cargoes from one Earth-bound orbit to another. Such vehicles could be based on the proposed space station and used to transport commercial satellites from the space station to geostationary orbits or to polar orbits and return. During a mission, AOTVs would fly through Earth's atmosphere, thus generating aerodynamic forces that could be used for decelerating the vehicles or changing their direction. AOTV research findings were concerned with the shock-wave-induced, high-temperature airflows that would be produced around these vehicles during atmospheric flight. Special emphasis was placed on the problems of: (1) the chemical physics of multitemperature, ionizing, nonequilibrium air flows, and (2) the dynamics of the flows in the base region of a blunt body with complex afterbody geometry.
Aeroassisted orbital transfer vehicles (AOTVs) are a proposed type of reusable spacecraft that would be used to transport cargoes from one earth-bound orbit to another. Such vehicles could be based on the proposed space station and used to transport commercial satellites from the space station to geostationary orbits or to polar orbits and return. During a mission, AOTVs would fly through earth's atmosphere, thus generating aerodynamic forces that could be used for decelerating the vehicles or changing their direction. AOTV research findings were concerned with the shock-wave-induced, high-temperature airflows that would be produced around these vehicles during atmospheric flight. Special emphasis was placed on the problems of: (1) the chemical physics of multitemperature, ionizing, nonequilibrium air flows, and (2) the dynamics of the flows in the base region of a blunt body with complex afterbody geometry.