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NASA NTRS1993

Modeling crop responses to environmental change

Potential biophysical responses of crops to climate change are studied focusing on the primary environmental variables which define the limits to agricultural crop growth and production, and the principal methods for predicting climate change impacts on crop geography and production. It is concluded that the principal uncertainties in the prediction of the impacts of climate change on agriculture reside in the contribution of the direct effects of increasing CO2, in potential changes inclimate variability, and the effects of adjustments mechanisms in the context of climatic changes.

Rosenzweig, Cynthia↗

NASA NTRS1992

The challenge of identifying greenhouse gas-induced climatic change

Meeting the challenge of identifying greenhouse gas-induced climatic change involves three steps. First, observations of critical variables must be assembled, evaluated, and analyzed to determine that there has been a statistically significant change. Second, reliable theoretical (model) calculations must be conducted to provide a definitive set of changes for which to search. Third, a quantitative and statistically significant association must be made between the projected and observed changes to exclude the possibility that the changes are due to natural variability or other factors. This paper provides a qualitative overview of scientific progress in successfully fulfilling these three steps.

Maccracken, Michael C.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Development of a change management system

The complexity and interdependence of software on a computer system can create a situation where a solution to one problem causes failures in dependent software. In the computer industry, software problems arise and are often solved with 'quick and dirty' solutions. But in implementing these solutions, documentation about the solution or user notification of changes is often overlooked, and new problems are frequently introduced because of insufficient review or testing. These problems increase when numerous heterogeneous systems are involved. Because of this situation, a change management system plays an integral part in the maintenance of any multisystem computing environment. At the NASA Ames Advanced Computational Facility (ACF), the Online Change Management System (OCMS) was designed and developed to manage the changes being applied to its multivendor computing environment. This paper documents the research, design, and modifications that went into the development of this change management system (CMS).

Parks, Cathy Bonifas↗

NASA NTRS1994

Stellar activity: Astrophysics relevant to global change

FRESIP will obtain a great deal of data on stellar activity and flares on F, G and K dwarfs. Rotation periods, flare distributions and possibly stellar cycles will emerge. This apparently curiosity-driven research actually has implications for our understanding of global climate change. Significant climate change during the seventeenth-century Maunder Minimum is thought to be related to a change in the solar condition. Recently acquired data from the Greenland Ice-core Project suggest that far greater climate changes on decade time scales may have occurred during the previous interglacial. It is possible that a yet more drastic change in state of the Sun was responsible. We have no relevant solar data, but can begin to explore this possibility by observing an ensemble of solar-like stars.

Haisch, Bernhard M.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Possible implications of global climate change on global lightning distributions and frequencies

The Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) is used to study the possible implications of past and future climate change on global lightning frequencies. Two climate change experiments were conducted: one for a 2 x CO2 climate (representing a 4.2 degs C global warming) and one for a 2% decrease in the solar constant (representing a 5.9 degs C global cooling). The results suggest at 30% increase in global lightning activity for the warmer climate and a 24% decrease in global lightning activity for the colder climate. This implies an approximate 5-6% change in global lightning frequencies for every 1 degs C global warming/cooling. Both intracloud and cloud-to-ground frequencies are modeled, with cloud-to-ground lightning frequencies showing larger sensitivity to climate change than intracloud frequencies. The magnitude of the modeled lightning changes depends on season, location, and even time of day.

Price, Colin↗

NASA NTRS1994

Improvement of the photometric sunspot index and changes of the disk-integrated sunspot contrast with time

The photometric sunspot index (PSI) was developed to study the effects of sunspots on solar irradiance. It is calculated from the sunspot data published in the Solar-Geophysical Data catalog. It has been shown that the former PSI models overestimate the effect of dark sunspots on solar irradiance; furthermore results of direct sunspot photometry indicate that the contrast of spots depends on their area. An improved PSI calculation is presented; it takes into account the area dependence of the contrast and calculates `true' daily means for each observation using the differential rotation of the spots. Moreover, the observations are screened for outliers which improves the homogeneity of the data set substantially, at least for the period after December 1981 when NOAA started to report data from a few instead of one to two stations. A detailed description of the method is provided. The correlation between the newly calculated PSI and total solar irradiance is studied for different phases of the solar cycles 21 and 22 using bi-variate spectral analysis. The results can be used as a `calibration' of PSI in terms of gain, the factor by which PSI has to be multiplied to yield the observed irradiance change. The factor changes with time from about 0.6 in 1980 to 1.1 in 1990. This unexpected result cannot be interpreted by a change of the contrast relative to the quiet Sun (as it is normally defined and determined by direct photometry) but rather as a change of the contrast between the spots and their surrounding as seen in total irradiance (integrated over the solar disk). This may partly be explained by a change in the ratio between the areas of the spots and the surrounding faculae.

Froehlich, Claus↗

NASA NTRS1996

The future of transportation in society: Forces of change

The transportation system is a critical element of the social / political / economic system of the United States. Factors influencing the use of transportation technology include technology push, market pull, and external factors. In order for new transportation technology to be successful, it must meet the needs of the market. These needs are diverse and vary almost by individual. Historical trends show great changes in transportation use by mode and origins and destinations of trips. Other important changes in society affecting transportation use include changes in the composition of society by gender, age, national origin, family composition, land use, income, and residential distribution. Changes of these factors in the future and how technology is deployed to meet the changing needs of society will affect the success of transportation technology implementation over the next twenty years.

Richardson, Barbara C.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Parametric Analysis of Cyclic Phase Change and Energy Storage in Solar Heat Receivers

A parametric study on cyclic melting and freezing of an encapsulated phase change material (PCM), integrated into a solar heat receiver, has been performed. The cyclic nature of the present melt/freeze problem is relevant to latent heat thermal energy storage (LHTES) systems used to power solar Brayton engines in microgravity environments. Specifically, a physical and numerical model of the solar heat receiver component of NASA Lewis Research Center's Ground Test Demonstration (GTD) project was developed. Multi-conjugate effects such as the convective fluid flow of a low-Prandtl-number fluid, coupled with thermal conduction in the phase change material, containment tube and working fluid conduit were accounted for in the model. A single-band thermal radiation model was also included to quantify reradiative energy exchange inside the receiver and losses through the aperture. The eutectic LiF-CaF2 was used as the phase change material (PCM) and a mixture of He/Xe was used as the working fluid coolant. A modified version of the computer code HOTTube was used to generate results in the two-phase regime. Results indicate that parametric changes in receiver gas inlet temperature and receiver heat input effects higher sensitivity to changes in receiver gas exit temperatures.

Hall, Carsie A., III↗

NASA NTRS1998

Changes in the Radiometric Sensitivity of SeaWiFS

We report on the lunar and solar measurements used to determine the changes in the radiometric sensitivity of the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS). Radiometric sensitivity is defined as the output from the instrument (or from one of the instrument bands) per unit spectral radiance at the instrument's input aperture. Knowledge of the long-term repeatability of the SeaWiFS measurements is crucial to maintaining the quality of the ocean scenes derived from measurements by the instrument. For SeaWiFS bands 1 through 6 (412 nm through 670 rim), the change in radiometric sensitivity is less than 0.2% for the period from November 1997 through November 1998. For band 7 (765 nm), the change is about 1.5%, and for band 8 (865 nm) about 5%. The rates of change of bands 7 and 8, which were linear with time for the first eight months of lunar measurements, are now slowing. The scatter in the data points about the trend lines in this analysis is less than 0.3% for all eight SeaWiFS bands. These results are based on monthly measurements of the moon. Daily solar measurements using an onboard diffuser show that the radiometric sensitivities of the SeaWiFS bands have changed smoothly during the time intervals between lunar measurements. Since SeaWiFS measurements have continued past November 1998, the results presented here are considered as a snapshot of the instrument performance as of that date.

McClain, Charles R.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Comparison of the Seasonal Change in Cloud-Radiative Forcing from Atmospheric General Circulation Models and Satellite Observations

We compare seasonal changes in cloud-radiative forcing (CRF) at the top of the atmosphere from 18 atmospheric general circulation models, and observations from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE). To enhance the CRF signal and suppress interannual variability, we consider only zonal mean quantities for which the extreme months (January and July), as well as the northern and southern hemispheres, have been differenced. Since seasonal variations of the shortwave component of CRF are caused by seasonal changes in both cloudiness and solar irradiance, the latter was removed. In the ERBE data, seasonal changes in CRF are driven primarily by changes in cloud amount. The same conclusion applies to the models. The shortwave component of seasonal CRF is a measure of changes in cloud amount at all altitudes, while the longwave component is more a measure of upper level clouds. Thus important insights into seasonal cloud amount variations of the models have been obtained by comparing both components, as generated by the models, with the satellite data. For example, in 10 of the 18 models the seasonal oscillations of zonal cloud patterns extend too far poleward by one latitudinal grid.

Cess, R. D.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Analysis of Daily, Seasonal, and Interannual Changes in Hofsjokull Ice Cap, Iceland, using Satellite Data

Analysis of a time series of European Remote Sensing Satellite (ERS)-1 and -2, RADARSAT ScanSAR synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and Landsat images from 1973 to 1998, shows daily to interannual changes in Hofsjokull, a 923 sq km ice cap in central Iceland. A digital elevation model of Hofsjokull was constructed using interferometry, and then SAR backscatter coefficient (d) was plotted with elevation, and air temperature along a transect across the ice cap. Most of the a' changes measured along the transect are caused by a change in the state (frozen or thawed) of the surficial snow or ice when air temperature rises above or below about -5 to O C. Seasonal (sigma)deg patterns are identified in a 4-year time series of 57 ERS-1 and -2 images. In addition, June 1997 ScanSAR images display rapid changes in brightness that are tied closely to daily meteorological events. SAR and Landsat data were also used to measure changes in the areal extent of Hofsjokull, from 1973 to 1997, and to locate (sigma)deg and reflectance boundaries that relate to the glacier facies. Late-summer 1997 (sigma)deg and reflectance boundaries agree and are coincident with the approximate location of the fim line, and the January 1998 position of the equilibrium line as determined from ERS-2 data.

Hall, D. K.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Elevation Change of the Southern Greenland Ice Sheet: Update

The overall focus of our research is to document long-term elevation change of the Greenland ice sheet using satellite altimeter data. In addition, we are investigating seasonal and interannual variations in the ice-sheet elevations to place the long-term measurements in context. Specific objectives of this research include: 1) Developing new techniques to significantly improve the accuracy of elevation-change estimates derived from satellite altimetry. 2) Measuring the elevation change of the Greenland ice sheet over a 10-year time period using Seasat (1978) and Geosat GM (1985-86) and Geosat ERM (1986-88) altimeter data. 3) Quantifying seasonal/interannual variations in the elevation-change estimates using the continuous time series of surface elevations from the Geosat GM and ERM datasets. 4) Extending the long-term elevation change analysis to two decades by incorporating data from the ERS-1/2 missions (1991-99) and, if available, the Geosat-Follow On (GFO) mission (1998-??).

Davis, C. H.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Change Detection Analysis in Urban and Suburban Areas Using Landsat Thematic Mapper data: Case of Huntsville, Alabama

Two Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) images, from July 1984 and July 1992, were used to identify land use/cover changes in the urban and suburban fringe of the city of Huntsville, Alabama. Image difference was the technique used to quantify the change between the two dates. The eight-year period showed a 16% change, mainly from agricultural lands to urban areas generated by the settlement of industrial, commercial, and residential areas. Visual analysis of the change map (i.e., difference image) supported this phenomenon by showing that most changes were occurring in the vicinity of the major roads and highways across the city.

Kuan, Dana↗

NASA NTRS2001

Changes in the Earth's UV Reflectivity (1979 to 1992)

Measurements of the Earth,s 380 nm UV reflectivity combine the effects of surface reflectivity, aerosols, haze, cloud optical thickness, and the fraction of the scene covered by clouds. Since the 380 nm surface reflectivity is low (2 to 8%) over most surfaces, water and land, the observed reflectivity changes are mostly caused by changes in the amount of snow/ice, cloudiness and aerosols. Time-series analysis of TOMS reflectivity over the period from 1979 to 1992 shows that there were no significant changes in annually-averaged zonal-average reflectivity at latitudes within 60 degrees S to 60 degrees N, even though there were changes at higher latitudes (e.g., 3% per decade, in reflectivity units, between 60 degrees N and 70 degrees N). When the effects of the 11-year solar cycle and ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) are removed from the data, statistically significant reflectivity changes are observed poleward of both 40 degrees S and 40 degrees N. The solar-cycle results suggest a possible Sun-weather relationship.

Hermana, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Body Mass Changes Associated With Hyper-Gravity are Independent of Adrenal Derived Hormones

Exposure to hyper-gravity results in a number of metabolic changes associated with increases in catecholamines and corticosterone. These changes result in a loss of body and fat mass. To assess the role of hormones derived from the adrenal gland in the changes we studied sham operated (SO) and adrenalectomized (ADX) male rats exposed to hyper-gravity of 2 G for 14 days. Control groups at 1 G were also studied. Urinary epinephrine (EPI) and corticosterone (CORT) were reduced in ADX animals. In response to 2 G there was an increase in urinary EPI and CORT in SO rats, while levels were unchanged in ADX animals. Both groups of animals had similar increases in urinary norepinephrine levels. The reductions of body mass gain in response to 2 G were the same in both groups. The decrease in relative fat mass was greater in ADX. Energy intake and expenditure were not different between groups. In response of returning to 1 G for 24 hours and reexposure to hyper-gravity there were no differences between SO and ADX in the changes of food and water intake, body mass or activity. The changes in metabolism with exposure to hyper-gravity do not appear to require hormones derived from the adrenal gland. The increase in lypolysis and alterations body and fat mass appear to be modulated by sympathetically derived norepinehrine.

Wade, Charles E.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Ecophysiological Changes in Microbial Mats Incubated in a Greenhouse Collaboratory

Microbial mats are modern examples of the earliest microbial communities known. Among the best studied are microbial mats growing in hypersaline ponds managed for the production of salt by Exportadora de Sal, S.A. de C.V., Guerrero Negro, Baja California Sur, Mexico. In May, 2001, we collected mats from Ponds 4 and 5 in this system and returned them to Ames Research Center, where they have been maintained for a period of over nine months. We report here on both the ecophysiological changes occurring in the mats over that period of time as well as the facility in which they were incubated. Mats (approximately 1 sq. meter total area) were incubated in a greenhouse facility modified to provide the mats with natural levels of visible and ultraviolet radiation as well as constantly flowing, temperature-controlled water. Two replicated treatments were maintained, a 'high salinity' treatment (about 120 ppt) and a 'low salinity' treatment (about 90 ppt). Rates of net biological activity (e.g., photosynthesis, respiration, trace gas production) in the mats were relatively constant over the several months, and were similar to rates of activity measured in the field. However, over the course of the incubation, mats in both treatments changed in physical appearance. The most obvious change was that mats in the higher salinity treatments developed a higher proportion of carotenoid pigments (relative to chlorophyll), resulting in a noticeably orange color in the high salinity mats. This trend is also seen in the natural salinity gradient present at the field site. Changes in the community composition of the mats, as assayed by denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE), as well as biomarker compounds produced in the mats were also monitored. The degree to which the mats kept in the greenhouse changed from the originally collected mats, as well as differences between high and low salinity mats will be discussed. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Bebout, Brad↗

NASA NTRS1995

The Role of Nutrition in the Changes in Bone and Calcium Metabolism During Space Flight

On Earth, the primary purpose of the skeleton is provide structural support for the body. In space, the support function of the skeleton is reduced since, without gravity, structures have only mass and no weight. The adaptation to space flight is manifested by shifts in mineral distribution, altered bone turnover, and regional mineral deficits in weight-bearing bones. The shifts in mineral distribution appear to be related to the cephalic fluid shift. The redistribution of mineral from one bone to another or to and from areas in the same bone in response to alterations in gravitational loads is more likely to affect skeletal function than quantitative whole body losses and gains. The changes in bone turnover appear dependent upon changes in body weight with weight loss tending to increase bone resorption as well as decrease bone formation. During bedrest, the bone response to unloading varies depending upon the routine activity level of the subjects with more active subjects showing a greater suppression of bone formation in the iliac crest with inactivity. Changes in body composition during space flight are predicted by bedrest studies on Earth which show loss of lean body mass and increase tn body fat in adult males after one month. In ambulatory studies on Earth, exercising adult males of the same age, height, g weight, body mass index, and shoe size show significantly higher whole body mineral and lean body mass. than non-exercising subjects. Nutritional preference appears to change with activity level. Diet histories in exercisers and nonexercisers who maintain identical body weights show no differences in nutrients except for slightly higher carbohydrate intake in the exercisers. The absence of differences in dietary calcium in men with higher total body calcium is noteworthy. In this situation, the increased bone mineral content was facilitated by the calcium endocrine system. This regulatory system can be by-passed by raising dietary calcium. Increased calcium intake can increase the calcium content in normally loaded bone. However, bone with a higher calcium content still decreases proportionally to normal bone during unloading. Nutritional requirements in space should be reevaluated with respect to these adaptive changes to loading and physical activity.

Morey-Holton, Emily R.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Decadal Changes in Global Ocean Annual Primary Production

The Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS) has produced the first multi-year time series of global ocean chlorophyll observations since the demise of the Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) in 1986. Global observations from 1997-present from SeaWiFS combined with observations from 1979-1986 from the CZCS should in principle provide an opportunity to observe decadal changes in global ocean annual primary production, since chlorophyll is the primary driver for estimates of primary production. However, incompatibilities between algorithms have so far precluded quantitative analysis. We have developed and applied compatible processing methods for the CZCS, using modern advances in atmospheric correction and consistent bio-optical algorithms to advance the CZCS archive to comparable quality with SeaWiFS. We applied blending methodologies, where in situ data observations are incorporated into the CZCS and SeaWiFS data records, to provide improvement of the residuals. These re-analyzed, blended data records provide maximum compatibility and permit, for the first time, a quantitative analysis of the changes in global ocean primary production in the early-to-mid 1980's and the present, using synoptic satellite observations. An intercomparison of the global and regional primary production from these blended satellite observations is important to understand global climate change and the effects on ocean biota. Photosynthesis by chlorophyll-containing phytoplankton is responsible for biotic uptake of carbon in the oceans and potentially ultimately from the atmosphere. Global ocean annual primary decreased from the CZCS record to SeaWiFS, by nearly 6% from the early 1980s to the present. Annual primary production in the high latitudes was responsible for most of the decadal change. Conversely, primary production in the low latitudes generally increased, with the exception of the tropical Pacific. The differences and similarities of the two data records provide evidence of how the Earth's climate may be changing and how ocean biota respond. Furthermore, the results have implications for the ocean carbon cycle.

Gregg, Watson↗